哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)華德應(yīng)用技術(shù)學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文） - 1 - 附錄 A 灑水車發(fā)展史 2010 年的汽車產(chǎn)銷量截至目前，專用 灑水車 已經(jīng)是歷史最高水平，但發(fā)改委卻在這時(shí)明確表示， “ 十二五 期間，國(guó)家將堅(jiān)決控制汽車產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩 ” 。曾幾何時(shí)，警惕產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的聲音一直不絕于耳，但往往隨著車市的火爆行情而不了了之。一時(shí)間硝煙再起，專用 灑水車 ，運(yùn)油車產(chǎn)能這一敏感話題，在傳統(tǒng)旺季 “ 金九銀十 ” 來(lái)臨之際被提及 ，撩撥著整個(gè)汽車行業(yè)的神經(jīng)。 日本本土每年約銷售 1000 萬(wàn)輛，出口 1000 萬(wàn)輛，其最高產(chǎn)能也在 2000萬(wàn)輛左右。整個(gè)歐洲國(guó)家合計(jì)銷售的最高紀(jì)錄也在 1700 萬(wàn)輛左右。無(wú)數(shù)現(xiàn)成經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明， 2000 萬(wàn)輛是一個(gè)難以突破的 “ 產(chǎn)能魔咒 ” 。美國(guó)曾創(chuàng)下 1740 萬(wàn)輛的新車銷售巔峰紀(jì)錄，但隨后的十年逐年遞減。中國(guó)有沒(méi)有足夠的實(shí)力證明，咱們可以在 5 年間賣到 3200 萬(wàn)輛？恐怕不一定。 有因才有果。發(fā)改委的決心來(lái)源于數(shù)據(jù)的支持，據(jù)中國(guó)汽車技 術(shù)研究中心、汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)政策研究室統(tǒng)計(jì)，到 2015 年年底，我國(guó)規(guī)劃汽車產(chǎn)能將近 3200 萬(wàn)輛，這一數(shù)字幾乎達(dá)到目前全球汽車每年總銷量 6000 多萬(wàn)輛的一半。就在不遠(yuǎn)后的2015，中國(guó)需要這么多汽車嗎？全世界需要如此之多的中國(guó)車嗎？答案無(wú)疑是否定的。因?yàn)闊o(wú)論從原油、道路、城市容量、環(huán)境污染等方面來(lái)說(shuō)，世界和中國(guó)都接納不下太多汽車。 事物的規(guī)律是盛極必衰，這不是危言聳聽(tīng)。因?yàn)槊绹?guó)已經(jīng)在我們之前體驗(yàn)了這個(gè)惡果 太多的汽車企業(yè)經(jīng)歷倒閉或被收購(gòu)，連全球汽車巨頭通用也差點(diǎn) “ 樹(shù)倒猢猻散 ” 。這也就是汽車社會(huì)發(fā)展的必然規(guī) 律。 從 2020 年開(kāi)始到 2035 年，專用 灑水車 “ 誰(shuí)也阻止不了中國(guó)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的全面萎縮，我們會(huì)在那個(gè)時(shí)候吞下產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的惡果 ” 如同 2007 年經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)在美國(guó)底特律看到的情形一樣。照目前的情況發(fā)展下去，有專家預(yù)計(jì)專用灑水車 。 哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)華德應(yīng)用技術(shù)學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文） - 2 - 附 錄 B sprinkles 2010 car volume at present, special sprinkles is a history top level, but the NDRC but when made it clear that 1025 period, countries will be resolutely control car excess capacity. Once upon a time, vigilance overcapacity voice incessant all, but often with the boom of Indonesia and the market disappear. Time now, special sprinkles, smoke transport capacity youchegang the sensitive topic, in the traditional season jin jiuyin 10 approaching mentioned, provocative the whole car industry, nerve. Japan each year about sales 1000 million vehicles, export 1000 million vehicles, the maximum capacity also in 2000 million vehicles or so. The whole European countries combined sales record in 1700 million vehicles or so. Countless ready experience shows that 2000 million vehicles is a hard break capacity spell. American once set 17.4 million vehicles new car sales peak, but then ten years record year is degressive. China is there enough strength proof in 5 years, we can sell to 32 million cars? Im afraid not. Have due to just have fruit. NDRC determination derived from the data support, according to Chinas auto technology research center, auto industry policy research statistics by 2015, the end of the year, our country planning regrouping nearly 32 million cars, this number almost reaches the current global car annual total sales more than 6,000 million vehicles in the first half. In the not too distant after 2015, China needs so many cars? The world need so many Chinese car? The answer is undoubtedly negative. Because no matter from crude oil, roads and urban capacity, pollution and other ways, the world and China have accepted not too many cars. The rule is is endemic things will decline, this is not true. Because America has before we experience the consequences - too many cars enterprise experience bankruptcy or takeover, even the global auto giant general also almost desert a sinking ship. This also auto is an inexorable law governing social advancement. From 2020 began to by 2035 special sprinkles who can prevent Chinas 哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)華德應(yīng)用技術(shù)學(xué)院畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文） - 3 - automobile industry to the comprehensive atrophy, we will at that time swallowed overca