1、氣候變化課件氣候變化課件氣候變化的定義科學(xué)定義：氣候平均狀態(tài)和距平兩者中的一個(gè)或者一起出現(xiàn)了統(tǒng)計(jì)意義上顯著的變化政府間氣候委員會(huì)（IPCC）：自然+人類活動(dòng)的結(jié)果聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化框架公約（UNFCCC）：人類活動(dòng)先前的氣候新氣候新氣候先前的氣候平均平均冷冷熱熱均值增加方差增加1.均值增加，偏熱天氣的概率增加，以前不出現(xiàn)的極熱天氣也可出現(xiàn)，偏冷天氣大大減少2. 距平增加，會(huì)造成更多的偏冷偏熱天氣，出現(xiàn)極冷和極熱天氣氣候變化的定義科學(xué)定義：氣候平均狀態(tài)和距平兩者中的一個(gè)或者一20世紀(jì)已觀測(cè)到的氣候變化的影響地球表層平均溫度20世紀(jì)中增加0.6全球平均海面20世紀(jì)平均每年上升1-2mm河流湖泊結(jié)冰期北

2、半球中高緯度地區(qū)約減少了2周北極的海冰50年代以來(lái)，春夏季面積減少10-15%非極地冰川廣泛退卻雪蓋60年代以來(lái)面積減少10%永凍土層在極地的部分地區(qū)，解凍、退化植物生長(zhǎng)季在過(guò)去的40年中，北半球高緯度地區(qū)每10年延長(zhǎng)1-4天動(dòng)植物分布向高緯度、高海拔轉(zhuǎn)移相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失考慮了通貨膨脹后，過(guò)去40年全球損失增加了14倍20世紀(jì)已觀測(cè)到的氣候變化的影響地球表層平均溫度20世紀(jì)中增Virtually all scientists agree that the Earth has warmed a small amount since the year 1000 or, if you choose,

3、since 1850, when instrumented temperature records became reasonably accurate and distributed in key areas of the world. Virtually all scientists agree1.溫度：近百年來(lái)，氣溫上升了0.4-0.5，最明顯的在西北、華北、東北地區(qū)，而長(zhǎng)江以南地區(qū)不明顯。冬季增溫最明顯。極端最低溫度和平均最低溫度都升高，寒潮頻率降低。2.降水：近50年，降水量減少（但1991-2000略有增加），華北大部、西北東部、東北降水減少，而華南、西南和西北地區(qū)的西部，降水增加

4、。3.氣候極端事件：年降水日減少，但降水強(qiáng)度增加（暴雨的強(qiáng)度更為強(qiáng)烈）我國(guó)氣候變化的觀測(cè)事實(shí)1.溫度：近百年來(lái)，氣溫上升了0.4-0.5，最明顯的在西全球氣候變化的特征1.近百年的全球氣候變化，至少是過(guò)去1000年中最顯著的（全球平均表面溫度每10年增加0.150.5）2.降水在中高緯（5-10%）和熱帶地區(qū)（2-3%）增加，在副熱帶地區(qū)（2-3%）減少（水循環(huán)活躍）。導(dǎo)致強(qiáng)降水事件增多、夏季大陸干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。3.極端天氣-氣候事件的頻率和強(qiáng)度有增加的趨勢(shì)（熱帶氣旋、中緯度風(fēng)暴、季風(fēng)、熱浪、暴風(fēng)雪、干旱等）4.人類活動(dòng)導(dǎo)致的大氣溫室氣體的增加通過(guò)溫室效應(yīng)是造成全球變暖的重要因子。（IPCC觀點(diǎn)

5、）全球氣候變化的特征1.近百年的全球氣候變化，至少是過(guò)去100未來(lái)氣候（50-100年）的變化1.全球氣候繼續(xù)變暖，最大的增暖區(qū)在高緯度地區(qū)，出現(xiàn)在春、冬季；在溫室氣體濃度穩(wěn)定后，全球變暖的趨勢(shì)將會(huì)持續(xù)下去2.大氣中的溫室氣體濃度將繼續(xù)增加（目前每年化石燃料排放60億噸碳（1噸碳=3.7噸CO2），預(yù)計(jì)到2100年每年排放50-350億噸碳，從而會(huì)將CO2含量增加到540-1000ppmv）3.北半球中高緯度地區(qū)降水繼續(xù)增加，我國(guó)西北和東部沿海增加最明顯4.極端天氣與氣候事件出現(xiàn)的機(jī)會(huì)增加5.許多地區(qū)的干旱加?。ㄓ绕涫敲乐拗胁亢桶拇罄麃喌谋辈浚?.海平面加速上升（從1990-2100年，將上升

6、0.09-0.88m, 即使溫室氣體維持在目前的狀態(tài)下，海平面幾百年后仍將上升）未來(lái)氣候（50-100年）的變化1.全球氣候繼續(xù)變暖，最大的氣候變化對(duì)自然生態(tài)的影響1.水資源：地表徑流、旱澇災(zāi)害、水土流失（對(duì)灌溉用水影響很大）2.自然植被的地理分布與物種組成可能發(fā)生明顯變化3.冰川、凍土和積雪可能減少（到2050年，我國(guó)西部冰川面積將繼續(xù)減少27.2%）4.大河、湖泊水位下降和面積萎縮（青海湖）5.海平面上升將影響海岸帶和海洋生態(tài)系統(tǒng)（紅樹(shù)林、珊瑚礁、濕地）6.森林植被資源7.生物多樣性：相對(duì)脆弱的物種的滅絕氣候變化對(duì)自然生態(tài)的影響1.水資源：地表徑流、旱澇災(zāi)害、水土氣候變化對(duì)人類社會(huì)活動(dòng)的影

7、響1.農(nóng)業(yè)與食物安全：熱帶一些作物已經(jīng)接近其最高的極限溫度；當(dāng)變暖低于幾度時(shí)，氣候變化對(duì)中緯度作物產(chǎn)量有正面效應(yīng)。農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的不穩(wěn)定性增加，結(jié)構(gòu)變化。2.水資源的供需：3. 人體健康：酷熱、空氣污染、風(fēng)暴、洪水（例如瘧疾和革登熱的傳播地理范圍會(huì)增大）4.人居、能源與工業(yè)5.保險(xiǎn)和其他金融服務(wù)：災(zāi)害性事件造成的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)損失從50年代的39億美元/年增長(zhǎng)到90年代的400億美元/年氣候變化對(duì)人類社會(huì)活動(dòng)的影響1.農(nóng)業(yè)與食物安全：熱帶一些作物氣候變化課件大氣中近200年主要溫室氣體含量的變化年份CO2(ppmv)CH4(g/L)N2O(g/L)1000-175028070027020003681750

8、316增幅(%)31415025160368ppmv不但超過(guò)了過(guò)去近千年的濃度，而且也可能是過(guò)去42000年（對(duì)南極冰芯的探測(cè)）的最大值大氣中近200年主要溫室氣體含量的變化年份CO2(ppmv)BUT!1999-2008 全球變暖停滯了 Global mean temperature anomalies (relative to 1961-990) (gray), global mean temperature anomalies after the effect of ENSO has been subtracted (blue), and temperature trend of 199

9、9-2008 (red) BUT!1999-2008 全球變暖停滯了 Global而CO2 的排放沒(méi)有減少Annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning andcement production (black) compared with IPCC emission scenarios (colour) 而CO2 的排放沒(méi)有減少Annual CO2 emissi 北半球中高緯的增溫仍是顯著的，但也有變冷帶，所以全球平均溫度增量接近為0Global mean temperature increments (/10a) (black squares in

10、dicate where the trends are inconsistent at two standard deviations level with simulations) (1999-2008) 北半球中高緯的增溫仍是顯著的，但也有變冷帶，所以全球平均溫中國(guó)的變暖并未停滯Temperature increments of 1999-2008 in China中國(guó)的變暖并未停滯Temperature increment氣候變化課件The IPCC（聯(lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ） 2007 Clima

11、te Forecast for this CenturyCO2 (the most important gas) has risen from 280 ppm to 379 since pre-industrial times and its growth seems to be accelerating. Whether it does or not is the basis for 7 assumptions about future temperatures. Temperature increase. For the next 2 decades, 0.2 deg. C (0.4 F)

12、 temperature rise per decade, slightly higher later in most models. The models are all different and respond differently to different assumptions. For the end of this century, IPCC provides 7 best estimates (for 7 assumptions) ranging from 0.6 - 4.0 C (1.1-7.2 F). Warming is likely to lie in the ran

13、ge 2-4.5 deg. C (3.6-8.1 F), with a most likely value of about 3 deg. C (5.4 F). Since the 1800s the temperature has risen 0.76 deg.C (1.4 F). The warming is to be greater on land, in high northern latitudes. The IPCC（聯(lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)IntergSea level rise. For 6 sets of assumptions, the mid-points are

14、 about 0.3 meters ( 1 ft.) Since 1850 sea level has risen about 200 mm (9 in.), a little less than 2 mm/yr. More recently the rate appears to be 3.1 mm/yr, now measured by altimetry satellites. (However, we learned on 22 June 2007 that the data were manipulated to achieve this!). A good explanation

15、is by the late John Daly, whose passing was hailed by the IPCC ClimateGate scientists. In a 2009-published study, the authors used GPS measurement to correct for local vertical movement of the Earth at key tide gages, finding a global rate of geocentric sea level rise of 1.61 0.19mm/yr over the past

16、 century and with no acceleration. Other attributes. Ocean acidity should rise with reduced ph units of 0.14 to 0.35; hurricanes become more intense, perhaps less numerous; heat waves and heavy precipitation more frequent; less sea ice and snow cover; higher westerly winds in mid-latitudes; more pre

17、cipitation in high latitudes, less in sub-tropics inland areas. Sea level rise. For 6 sets of PROJECTIONS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES(IPCC)PROJECTIONS OF SURFACE TEMPERA2013年夏天，北極圈將完全無(wú)冰 ？（來(lái)自計(jì)算機(jī)模型的預(yù)測(cè)顯示，海冰將持續(xù)融化下去，但何時(shí)會(huì)完全無(wú)冰，科學(xué)家從未達(dá)成共識(shí)。通常的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果是在2040到2100年間。2013是最激進(jìn)的推測(cè)，但其數(shù)據(jù)均來(lái)自1979年到2004年） 中評(píng)社香港10月6日電美國(guó)航天局和美國(guó)國(guó)家

18、冰雪數(shù)據(jù)研究中心日前公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，北極地區(qū)的海冰范圍今年（2011）9月份達(dá)歷史同期第二低位。2013年夏天，北極圈將完全無(wú)冰 ？（來(lái)自計(jì)算機(jī)模型的預(yù)測(cè)顯CO2 lags temperature（200 to 1000 years ）-Does warming cause CO2 rise or the other way around? CO2 lags temperature（200 to 10Little Ice Age-period of cooling that occurred after a warmer era The period between 1600 and 1800

19、 marks the height of the Little Ice Age. The period was characterized by the expansion of European trade and the formation of European sea born Empires. This was directly linked to advances in technology harnessing more of natures power and towards the end of the period fossil-fuelled power. These t

20、wo hundred years also saw the specialization of agricultural regions, which produced specific products for local and international markets. Little Ice Age-period of cooliWhat caused the Little Ice Age? The cause of the Little Ice Age is unknown, but many people have pointed at the coincidence in low

21、 sunspot activity and the timing of the Little Ice. A minimum in sunspots, indicates an inactive and possibly colder sun and qonsequently less energy output to warm the earth. What caused the Little Ice AgeWhat Issues Separate the Consensus （正）and Skeptic （反）(pro and con) Scientists? (1) the amount

22、of temperature change since 1850; (2) whether the change is in the range of natural variability or is attributable to humans; (3) the amount of warming that greenhouse gases (CO2 and equivalents) will warm the Earth in the future; and (4)whether for the most likely scenarios, there are more losers t

23、han winners and if the change is just different. What Issues Separate the ConseWhat are the views of the IPCC Process by the Skeptics? 1. Very Few Scientists 2. Falsification of Data. 3. Overstatement of Risks and Impacts. 4. Pressure is Placed on People Who Disagree with the IPCC Majority. 5. The p

24、rocess leading to the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) is too Political. What are the views of the IPCCWhat Does the Consensus Say About the Skeptics? 1. On Somebodys Payroll. (oil companies )2. Not Mainstream Scientists. 3. Disproportionate Press Coverage. What Does the Consensus Say AbIs Global War

25、ming Really Bad? 1.The IPCC 2007 Reports Suggest There Will be More Losers than Winners with Warming. 2. Global Warming Will Actually Have More Winners then Losers. Throughout the history of human life, the Earths livability has always been better when the climate has been warmer than cooler. Even n

26、ow, NASA satellites show that the Earth has become 6% greener as the world has warmed over the past 20 years 3. More People Die from the Cold than From Heat and no Place on Earth is too Hot for Humans. Much has been made of the heat wave in Europe in early August 2003, which killed 35,000 people, wi

27、th 2,000 deaths in the UK. Yet, each year more than 25,000 people die in the UK from cold. Is Global Warming Really Bad? Newer Climate Change News - Since 2007Global warming destroying coral reefs Polar Bears survived warmer periods. Decrease of solar activity is harbinger of 1.5 deg C drop by 2020

28、Warming greatest in past decade Argentina November (2007) frost devastates agriculture. 10% of wheat lost. Half of all warming since 1900 is due to sun. Arctic Ocean Reverses. NASA: not all the changes in Arctic climate are from global warming As much as 120 centimeters of snow had fallen on the Alp

29、s as of mid November, the largest amount at the start of winter in more than 5 decades (Nov 2007)Buenos Aires records its lowest temperature for November in 90 years, 2.5 deg.C The Northern Hemisphere continues to restore its lost ice at a rapid pace.The wind caused the Arctic ice loss. Newer Climat

30、e Change News - Si全球變暖或者氣候變化，到底是個(gè)什么問(wèn)題？自然科學(xué)問(wèn)題，政治問(wèn)題，還是道德問(wèn)題低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)與發(fā)展（案例：歐盟航空碳排放稅；航海碳排放稅）全球變暖或者氣候變化，到底是個(gè)什么問(wèn)題？自然科學(xué)問(wèn)題，政氣候變化國(guó)際談判歷程-11.1988年聯(lián)合國(guó)大會(huì)首次審議了氣候變化問(wèn)題，1992年通過(guò)聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化框架公約。其最終目標(biāo)是“將大氣中溫室氣體濃度穩(wěn)定在防止氣候系統(tǒng)受到危險(xiǎn)的人為干擾水平”。公約確立了發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家同發(fā)展中國(guó)家在應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化方面“共同但有區(qū)別的責(zé)任”原則。 2.1997年，簽訂京都議定書(shū)，為發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家設(shè)立了2008至2012年第一承諾期量化的溫室氣體減排指標(biāo)，沒(méi)有為發(fā)展中國(guó)家規(guī)定強(qiáng)制性減排義務(wù)。