NowinRetail

2024U.S.HolidayPurchaseIntentions

KeyFindings

October2024

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

2

Tableofcontents

2024HolidayPurchaseIntentions

HolidayRetailOutlookbyMarshalCohen3

WhatConsumerSpendingWillLookLike6

ShoppingPlans10

InfluencersandPerceptions14

AbouttheStudy21

?ObjectivesandMethodology

?Notes

?Definitions

3

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HolidayRetail

OutlookbyMarshalCohen

ChiefRetailAdvisor

4

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Circana’sHolidayRetailOutlookByMarshalCohen

U.S.consumerintentionsforthe2024holidayseasonarebasedonablendofoptimismandpracticality.

Consumersentimentandintentionsrelatedtothe2024holidayshoppingseasonareimprovedcomparedtothelasttwoyears.

Mostshoppersplantospendaboutthesameaslastyear,butthereisanincreaseinthoseplanningtospendmore.Theaverageplannedholidayspendis2%higherthanlastyear.

Thekeyholidaydriversofclothing,technology,andtoyshaverenewed

opportunityforholidaysalesgrowth,withincreaseintheintenttopurchasebeauty,footwear,andluggage.

Planstogiveexperientialgiftslikefoodandbeverageexperiences,ticketstoanevent,oraspacertificatearehigherthanthey’vebeeninthreeyears.

Moreconsumersareplanningholidaygatheringswithfamilyandfriendsthisyear,andfewerpeopleplantohavetheirholidaymealsattheirownhome.

Aparticularlypositivesignforholidayretailisthatmoreconsumersplantoself-giftthanplannedtolastyear,thoughstillfewerthanplannedtotwoyearsago.

Consumersstillplantodomoreoftheirholidayshoppingonline,butmoreplantodosomeshoppinginstoresthaninthepastfewyears.

Financialconcerns—thoughtoalesserdegree—andotherdistractionsremain,keepingexpectationsbelow2021levels.

Amidalandscapeoffickletrendsthatdissipateasquicklyastheyappear,consumersaren’tinarushtopurchase.Theyarewillingtowaitforsales,evidencedbytheincreaseinthosewhoplantostartshoppingoverthe

Thanksgiving/BlackFriday/CyberWeekpromotionalperiod.

Convenienceandvalueareparamount.Mostconsumersprefertobuyasmany

giftsastheycanonline,andtheycomparepricesonlinebeforeshoppinginastore.

Whilevalueloomslarge,freeshippingremainsthetopinfluencerofwhere

consumerswillshopthisholidayseason,asminimumshippingthresholdsrise.

Socialmediaplaysanimportantroleinholidayshopping:76%ofholidayshopperssayproductreviewvideosarelikelytoinfluencetheirpurchases.

Foodandgrocerycostswillhaveanimpactonholidayshopping,butconsumersareadjusting.Two-thirdsofconsumerssaytheywillchangetheirshoppinghabitsinordertosavemoneythisholidayseason.

Holiday

Projections:

2024holidayspendingisexpectedtobeanimprovementfromlastyear’sresults,growingbetween1.5%and3%duringtheexpandedholidayshoppingperiodthatnowbeginsinOctoberandruns

throughearlyJanuary.

5

Circana’sHoliday

RetailOutlookByMarshalCohen

“Spiritsareupheadingintothefourthquarter,andconsumersarelookingtoholdontothatfeelingofpositivity.”

Asenseofretailstabilityhasbeenestablishedaheadofthisholidayseason

U.S.retailsalestrends,includingdiscretionarygeneralmerchandiseandconsumerpackagedgoods(CPG),havecontinuedtostabilizethisyear.Discretionaryspendingremainsatthenewspending

baselineestablishedin2023,andretailfoodandbeveragespendingincreaseshavesoftened.

Consumersareseekingaholidayescape—thatincludessomeretailtherapy

Thisyear,moreconsumersseetheholidaysasabreakfromeverythingthat’shappeningintheworld,andmoreplantobuymoregiftsforotherstobringthemjoyduringchallengingtimes.Addontheincreaseinplansforself-gifting,andyougetapictureofaconsumerprimedforholidayshoppingasanevent.

Theconsumer’squestforvalueisanopportunityforretailtoengage

Morethanhalfofholidayshopperssaytheywillspendlessthisholidayseasonbecauseother

costs/expenseshavegoneup.Manyholidayshopperssaytheywillbuymoreitemsthatareonsaleorpromotion.Moreconsumersdidsomeoftheirholidayshoppingduringthisyear’ssummerretail

promotionalevents,andmoreplannedtotakeadvantageoffallpromotionaleventsthanineitherofthepasttwoyears.Butnearlyaquarter(24%)saytheythinktheywillgetthebestdealsonBlackFridaythisholidayshoppingseason—thehighestinfouryears.

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“Theholidayretailseasonhastakenonthenextgenerationofshopping.Consumersarenotastetheredtotheuncertaintyofthelastseveralyears,andtheyfinallyfeelstableenoughtoembraceholidayshoppingagain.”

MarshalCohen

ChiefRetailAdvisor,Circana

Source:Circana,point-of-salefirst-readdata,limitedrelease

6

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What

Consumer

Spending

WillLookLike

Howmuchwilltheyspend?Whatwilltheybuy?

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7

Intendedspendingisup2%,withmostplanningto

spendthesameaslastyear

2023$754

2024$771

PlantoSpendonHolidayShopping

(Meanamongtotalrespondents)

2022$760

HolidaySpendingIntentions

%AmongTotalRespondents

2022

2023

2024

MorethanlastyearSameaslastyearLessthanlastyear

57

58

57

25

26

24

18

18

18

MillennialshaveleaptaheadofGenX,planningtospendthemost($880).

Thosewithchildrenarealsobigspenderscomparedtothosewithoutkids($1014vs$651).

Q1.Howmuchdoyouplantospendonholidayshoppingthisyear? Q2.Comparedtolastyear,doyouplantospend…?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

8

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Purchaseintentisverysteady,butwithincreased

spendinginsomekeyholidaycategories

%AmongTotalRespondents

1

Clothing/Accessories:56%

2

Tech/Electronics:35%

3

Entertainment:29%

4

Beauty:29%

5

Toys/Baby:29%

6

Home:27%

7

FoodorBeverages:22%

8

Liquor/Wine:19%

9

SportingGoods/SportEquipment:10%

TopTypesofPlannedPhysicalGifts

MeanSpend($)AmongPlannedPurchasers

1

Tech/Electronics:$910

2

Clothing/Accessories:$476

3

Home:$348

4

Entertainment:$211

5

Toys/Baby:$206

6

Beauty:$173

7

FoodorBeverages:$167

8

SportingGoods/SportEquipment:$164

9

Liquor/Wine:$143

Clothing41%

Q5.Whichoftheseproductsdoyouplantobuyasholidaygiftsthisyear?Q6.Howmuchdoyouplantospendon...?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

Experiencescontinuetobepopularforgiving

Food&beverageisthemostpopulartypeofexperienceatmorethan1.5timestheintendedgivingfortickets

Experiences/Intangibles

27

25

25

21

16+2pts15+3pts

14+3pts13

11

9

%AmongThoseWhoPlantoPurchaseanExperience/IntangibleGift

44

Food/Beverageexperiences

Ticketstoasportingevent,concertorothermusicevent,ortheater/play/musical SpacertificateCharitabledonationsTravel

InteractiveexperienceswheretheattendeesbecomepartoftheeventAdventureexperiences

Educational/Enrichmentexperiences

Tours Membershiptogym/fitnessclassesCertificatestoexperience-dedicatedwebsites

55%ofconsumersplantopurchaseanexperience/intangiblegift,up2ptsfromlastyear.

Meanwhile,subscriptionservicesreboundedslightly:16%plantogivethem,2ptsmorethanlastyear,thoughstilldown

comparedtotwoyearsago.

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Q27.Which,ifany,experiencesorintangiblegiftsdoyouplantopurchasethisholidayseason?Q28.Thisholidayseason,doyouplantopurchaseasubscriptionboxorserviceasagiftforsomeoneelse(oryourself)?

Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

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ShoppingPlans

When,how,andwherewillconsumersdotheirholidayshoppingthisyear?

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Consumersaremorelikelytostartshoppingearly,

butsincethepandemic,waitinghasincreased

PlantoSTARTShopping

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

%AmongTotalRespondentsProvidingaResponse

200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Early

BeforeThanksgiving

Mid

ThanksgivingDay/BlackFriday/

Thanksgivingweekend/CyberMonday

Late

EarlyDecember/lastminute

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Q12.Whenwillyoubeginyourholidayshopping?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

Thanksgivingweekendismorepopularforstarting

holidayshopping,up3ptsthisyear

45%ofconsumerswillstartshoppingbeforeThanksgiving

ButsomehaveshiftedtheirshoppingtotheThanksgivingholidayweekend(+3pts)

17%havealreadystarted

3%alreadyfinished

25%plantostartbeforeThanksgiving

5%willstarton

20%plantostartonBlackFriday

ThanksgivingDay

7%willstartover

3%willstart

onCyberMonday

Thanksgivingweekend

16%don’tplantostartuntil

5%willwaituntilthe

lastminute

earlyDecember

WhenWillEarlyShoppersStart?

%AmongConsumersPlanningtoStartShoppingBeforeThanksgiving

Septemberorearlier

October

Early

November

Weekof

Thanksgiving

37%33%(+6)24%(-7)4%

BlackFridaycontinuestogrowinimportance.24%ofconsumersstatedthisisthedaytheycanfindthebestdealsforholidayshopping.

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Q12.Whenwillyoubeginyourholidayshopping?

Q12a.Specifically,whenbeforeThanksgivingdidyou/willyoubeginyourholidayshopping?Q12.dDuringwhichofthefollowingtimeperiodsdoyoufeelyouwillgetthebestdealspossible?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

Onlinegrowsinimportancetoconsumers

PlantoShopOnlineforHoliday

%AmongTotalRespondents

85

80

73

66

59

7776

8283

80

71

20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

ShareofPlannedShopping:In-Storevs.Online

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

%AmongTotalRespondents

Online

In-Store

20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

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Q8a.Doyouplantodoanyofyourholidayshoppingonlinethisyear?

Q9b.Approximatelywhatpercentofyourholidayshoppingdoyouplantodo…?

Q9c.Whichtypeofdevicedoyouusemostoftenwhendoingyourholidayshoppingonline?Q10.Whichofthefollowingstatements,ifany,describeYOUwhenholidayshopping?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

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InfluencersandPerceptions

Dotheeconomyandtoday’spoliticalenvironmentaffectconsumers?

Whatroledoessocialmediaplayinshoppingbehavior?

Areconsumersgettingintotheholidayspirit?

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

Consumers’perceptionoftheeconomyhas

improvedslightly,buttheimpactisunchanged

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

StateoftheEconomy

%AmongTotalRespondents

Excellent/VeryGoodGoodFair/Poor

30

18

21

15

17

19

64

65

19

18

57

56

37

30

22

61

15

17

PersonalFinancialSituation

%AmongTotalRespondents

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Excellent/VeryGoodGoodFair/Poor

30

28

28

28

28

28

32

34

35

35

36

36

43

42

28

29

40

30

51

41

43

40

42

42

31

29

30

29

28

28

23

34

26

23

30

29

HowWillThisImpactSpending?

%AmongTotalRespondents

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

SpendMoreSpendtheSameSpendLess

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Q11c.Basedonwherethingsaretoday,howwouldyouratethefollowing?Q11d.Thinkingaboutyourfinancialsituationandtheeconomy,whatimpactwilltheyhaveonyourspendingthisholidayseason?

Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

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Theelectionandrisingfoodcostscouldaffectholiday

shopping,especiallyamongGenZandmillennials

ImpactofElectiononHolidayPurchasing

%AmongTotalRespondents

nYes,theelectionwillimpactmyholidaypurchasing

No,theelectionwillnotimpactmyholidaypurchasing

17%

Willspendmore/lessdependingwhoiselected

32

GenZ=44%

Millennials=43%

16%

Willwaittostart

shoppinguntilafter

theelection

68

ImpactofFood/GroceryCostsonHolidayPurchasing

%AmongTotalRespondents

GenZ=73%

Millennials=73%

62

38

21

25

22

Willhaveanimpact(NET)

Buythesame

amountofgifts

butspendless

oneachone

BuylessgiftsBuymore'offNoimpact

overallbrand'items

T8Willtheupcomingelectionimpactyourpurchasedecisionsfortheholidayseason?T10.Thinkingaboutyourhousehold’sfood/grocerycoststhisyear,howwillthosecostsaffectyourholidayshopping?

Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

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Tosavemoney,twointhreeconsumerswillfind

waystotradedownthisholidayseason

PlanstoSaveMoneyThisHolidaySeason

%AmongTotalRespondents

Willchangehabits(NET) Iwillbuymoreitemsthatareonsale/promotionIwillpurchasemorestorebrandsthannamebrands

IwillsubstitutelessexpensiveproductsforthoseItypicallybuyIwillbuymorebundled/valuepackitemstogetabetterdealIwillpurchasesmallerpackagesizes/smallersizedproductsIdonotplanonchangingmyshoppinghabits

67

37

22

22

19

16

33

T11:Whichofthefollowingbehaviors,ifany,doyouplanondoinginordertosavemoneythisholidayseasons?

Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

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Attitudesandperceptionsimpactbehavior

Consumersseekeconomicreliefthisseason,buttheyarealsolookingforwardtothejoytheholidaysbring.

64%

ofconsumerslookforwardtotheholidayseason.4ptshigherthanlastyearandhighestinfiveyears

29%

ofconsumersdidn’tmakeapurchasethis

yearinhopestheywouldgetitasagiftorfinditonpromotionduringtheholiday.3pts

higherthanlastyear

66%

ofconsumerssaytheholidaysprovideabreakfromeverythinggoingoninthe

world.2ptshigherthanlastyear

28%

ofconsumersbuygiftsforthemselvesasakindofretailtherapy.3ptshigherthan

lastyear

52%

ofconsumerssaytheywillspendlessthisholidayseasonbecauseotherexpenses

havegoneup.3ptshigherthanlastyear

57%

ofconsumerssaygoingshoppingputs

themintheholidayspirit.4ptshigherthanlastyear

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Q11.Whichofthefollowing,ifany,willinfluencewhereyoushopthisyearforholidaygifts?Q21.Howmuchdoyouagreeordisagreewiththefollowingstatements?QC1Pleasereadthestatementsthatfollowandtellushowmuchyouagreewitheach.Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

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Facebookreboundstobecomemorerelevantin

PlatformsPlantoUse

%AmongThosePlanningtoUseSocialMediaforPre-purchaseResearch

DOESWHOORWHATYOUFOLLOWMATTER?

Socialmedia’sinfluenceon

purchasebehavioratthe

holidaysissignificant.28%ofconsumerssaytheyfollow

brandsonsocialmedia.

Amongthosefollowers,threeinfourarelikelytomakea

purchasebecauseofthat.Thisisgreaterthantheinfluenceofretailers(66%)andproduct

reviews(66%).

Interestingly,only45%ofthosewhofollowa

celebritysaytheywouldbeinfluencedtomakeapurchase,comparedto57%ofthosewhofollowbloggers/influencers.

holidayshopping,drivenbyyoungergenerations

YouTubeFacebookInstagram TikTokPinterest

X(formerlyTwitter) RedditSnapchatLinkedIn

5649(+3)

27

27

21%

ofconsumerswill

24

21

usesocialmediaforpre-purchaseresearch thisholidayseason,

11

up1ptfromlastyear

66

65(+6)

19

Q11aa.Whichofthefollowingsocialmediaplatformsdoyouplantousetolearnmoreaboutaproductbeforeyoumakeapurchasethisholiday?Q11a1.Whichofthefollowingdescribeshowyoucurrentlyusesocialmediatolearnmoreaboutproducts?

Q11a2.Thisholidayseason,howlikelyareyoutomakeapurchase,ordecideagainstapurchase,basedonrecommendationsand/orreviewsfromeachofthefollowing?Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

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Mostconsumerswillhostorvisitothers

Intendedpurchasingofholiday-themeditemshasincreasedcomparedtolastyear.

PlannedSpendingComparedtoLastYear

%AmongThoseWhoPlantoBuy

SpendmoreSpendsameSpendless

25

34

61

54

14

32

55

13

12

HolidaythemedtablewareHolidaythemedHolidaythemedfoodor

itemsdecorationsbeverageitems

Plantobuy

68%72%83%

+4pts+2pts

58%ofconsumersplantoeattheirChristmasmealathome,down2ptsfromlastyear.

57%ofconsumerssaytheyplantohostorvisitfamily/friendsduringtheholidayseason,up2ptsfromlastyear.

39%ofconsumersplantohaveanovernightstayawayfromhomeovertheholidays,up2ptsfromlastyear.

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Q.T7Thinkingaboutproductsthatyoumaybuyforentertainingduringtheholidays,doyouplantospendmoreorlessontheseitemscomparedtolastyear?Q.17Wherewillyoueatyourholidaymeal(s)?Q18.Doyouplantotravelsomewhererequiringanovernightstayduringtheholidayseason?QC6.Howlikelyareyoutovisitorhostfamily/friendsthisholidayseason?

Source:Circana,AnnualHolidaySurvey,September2024

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AbouttheStudy

ObjectivesandMethodology

Notes

Definitions

Circana,LLC|Forpublicuse

Studyobjectivesandmethodology

Objectives