全球供應(yīng)鏈發(fā)展趨勢(shì)藍(lán)皮書(shū)B(niǎo)lueBook:TheFutureofGlobalSupplyChains(2025)中國(guó)物流與采購(gòu)聯(lián)合會(huì)China

FederationofLogisticsand

Purchasing編寫(xiě)組

EditorialTeam主

編

Chief

Editor:C

ai

Jin副

主

編

Associate

Editor:胡

大

劍

陳

嘯

風(fēng)Hu

Dajian

Chen

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by

stroke

count

of

name)余

云

劉

偉

華

肖

書(shū)

懷

馬

天

琦邱

士奎YuYun

Liu

Wei

Hua

Xiao

Shuhuai

Ma

Tianqi

Qiu

Shikui胡

江

云

王

喜

升

吳

漢

娜

柴

喬

林

趙

林

度Hu

Jiangyun

Wang

Xisheng

Wu

Hanna

Chai

Qiaolin

Zhao

Lindu海爾集團(tuán)華為技術(shù)有限公司Haier

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ITG

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Co.,Ltd.廈門(mén)建發(fā)股份有限公司

XiamenC&D

Inc.中國(guó)中煤能源集團(tuán)有限公司ChinaNationalCoal

Group

Corp.中煤信息技術(shù)(北京)有限公司ZhongmeiInformationTechnology(Beijing)

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&Young(China)Advisory

Limited中國(guó)物流與采購(gòu)聯(lián)合會(huì)采購(gòu)與供應(yīng)鏈管理專(zhuān)業(yè)委員會(huì)ChinaFederationofLogisticsandPurchasing,TheSpecializedCommitteefor支持單位：(按中文名稱(chēng)拼音排序)Support

units(Sort

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鋒

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新

良Yin

JifengPengXinlangPurchasingandSupplyChain

Management常

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Z

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hui蔡進(jìn)序言Introduction在全球化深度演進(jìn)的當(dāng)代，供應(yīng)鏈作為貫通生產(chǎn)、流通與消費(fèi)的

關(guān)鍵樞紐，深刻影響著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行方式，其穩(wěn)定性與效率不僅決

定企業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，更成為國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)安全與全球發(fā)展格局的重要支

撐。在此背景下，深度解析全球供應(yīng)鏈的現(xiàn)實(shí)圖景、精準(zhǔn)把握其演進(jìn)

方向，已成為各國(guó)在復(fù)雜國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中錨定戰(zhàn)略定位、搶抓發(fā)展機(jī)

遇的必要前提。站在2025年的時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)回望，全球供應(yīng)鏈正經(jīng)歷著自全球化深入

推進(jìn)以來(lái)最為深刻的系統(tǒng)性變革。貿(mào)易壁壘高筑、地緣政治裂變、技術(shù)

革命縱深推進(jìn)與氣候治理壓力加劇等多重力量交織共振，推動(dòng)全球供

應(yīng)鏈體系進(jìn)入范式迭代與自適應(yīng)調(diào)整的關(guān)鍵階段。與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)作

為制造業(yè)大國(guó)，在“雙循環(huán)”新發(fā)展格局的引領(lǐng)下，正通過(guò)韌性體系構(gòu)

建、數(shù)智化轉(zhuǎn)型與綠色技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，探索符合時(shí)代特征的全球供應(yīng)鏈發(fā)

展新路徑。本藍(lán)皮書(shū)立足全球視野與中國(guó)實(shí)踐，通過(guò)剖析全球供應(yīng)鏈的演進(jìn)

路徑，厘清地緣政治、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、關(guān)稅政策、可持續(xù)發(fā)展等核心變量的交

互影響，展望全球供應(yīng)鏈的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)，揭示其在多重約束下的適應(yīng)特征

與變革邏輯，以期為全球供應(yīng)鏈成員提供兼具理論深度與實(shí)踐價(jià)值的

戰(zhàn)略參考，助力構(gòu)建更具多元化與抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力的全球供應(yīng)鏈體系。Inthecurrentphaseofdeepeningglobalization,thesupplychain,asthe

keylinkconnecting

production,distributionandconsumption,profoundly

impactsthefunctioningoftheworldeconomy.Itsstability

and

efficiency

notonlydeterminethecompetitive

advantage

ofenterprises,but

also

underpinacountry'seconomicsecurityandtheglobal

development

land-scape.Against

this

backdrop,a

thorough

understanding

of

the

state

of

global

supplychainsandaprecise

grasp

oftheir

future

direction

have

becomeprerequisites

for

countriestosettheirstrategicpositioningand

seizeopportunitiesinacomplexinternationaleconomicenvironment.Looking

back

fromthe

2025

horizon,global

supply

chains

are

undergo-

ing

the

mostfar-reachingsystemictransformationsincetheintensification

ofglobalization.Theinterplay

ofrisingtradebarriers,geopoliticalfragmentation,the

deepening

oftechnologicalrevolutionsand

increasing

pressure

from

climate

governance

has

pushed

the

supply

chain

system

into

acriticalphaseofadaptationandparadigm

change.Meanwhile,China,as

a

manufacturingpowerhouse,isexploringnew

supply

chainpaths

suited

to

thetimesthroughresilience

building,digital-intelligent

transformation

and

greentechnologyinnovationunderthenew"dualcirculation"development

paradigm.Basedonaglobal

perspective

and

China's

practice,this

book

analyzes

the

evolution

ofglobal

supply

chains,clarifies

the

interactive

effects

of

geopolitics,technological

innovation,tariffpoliciesandsustainabledevel-opment,andlooksaheadto

futuretrends.It

reveals

theadaptive

features

andtransformationlogicofsupplychainsundermultiple

constraints,with

theaimof

providingastrategicreferencethatcombinestheoreticaldepth

with

practical

value

and

helping

to

build

a

global

supply

chain

system

that

is

more

diverse

and

more

resilient.全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)1Multi-Dimensional

Evolution

and

StructuralReconfigurationofGlobalSupplyChains11.1地緣重構(gòu)與近岸外包加速區(qū)域化GeopoliticalRealignmentandNearshoringAccelerateRegionalization31.2關(guān)稅政策與系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇復(fù)雜性Tariff

Policiesand

SystemicRisksIncreaseComplexity51.3基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、通信技術(shù)與創(chuàng)新技術(shù)驅(qū)動(dòng)供應(yīng)鏈提質(zhì)Infrastructure,Communications

and

TechnologiesImprove

SupplyChainEfficiency71.4可持續(xù)發(fā)展理念驅(qū)動(dòng)綠色供應(yīng)鏈轉(zhuǎn)型SustainableDevelopmentDrivestheGreenTransformationofSupplyChains92全球供應(yīng)鏈的趨勢(shì)研判與發(fā)展方向TrendAnalysisandDevelopmentDirectionofGlobal

SupplyChains112.1從全球化粗放布局轉(zhuǎn)向區(qū)域化精細(xì)協(xié)同F(xiàn)romExtensiveGlobalizedLayouttoRefinedRegionalizedCollaboration13從單

一成本驅(qū)動(dòng)到構(gòu)建多元韌性網(wǎng)絡(luò)2.2From

Cost-Driven

Only

to

Building

DiversifiedResilient

SupplyChainNetworks從傳統(tǒng)要素驅(qū)動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)向數(shù)智化創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)2.3

FromTraditionalFactorsDriventoDigitalInnovationDriven從資源消耗型發(fā)展轉(zhuǎn)向綠色可持續(xù)發(fā)展2.4From

Resource-Intensive

to

SustainableDevelopment目

錄

Contents131515全球供應(yīng)鏈重構(gòu)下的中國(guó)戰(zhàn)略與創(chuàng)新實(shí)踐3China'sStrategyandInnovativePracticesUnder

theReconstruction

of

Global

Supply

Chain173.1以“雙循環(huán)”戰(zhàn)略重塑全球供應(yīng)鏈新格局ReshapingtheLandscapeof

Global

SupplyChainsThrough

the

"Dual

Circulation"Strategy193.2以“多元布局”能力重構(gòu)全球供應(yīng)鏈韌性新體系ReconfiguringGlobal

SupplyChainResilienceThroughDiversifiedLayoutCapabilities213.3以“新質(zhì)生產(chǎn)力”重塑供應(yīng)鏈新賽道Reshaping

SupplyChainsThroughNewQualityProductive

Forces213.4以“綠色技術(shù)”助力全球供應(yīng)鏈低碳轉(zhuǎn)型Advancing

the

Global

Supply

Chain

Low-CarbonTransformationThroughGreenTechnologie234全球供應(yīng)鏈重構(gòu)下的中國(guó)戰(zhàn)略與創(chuàng)新實(shí)踐

ProspectsandStrategicRecommendationsforGlobal

Supply

Chains254.1堅(jiān)持合作共贏的開(kāi)放理念A(yù)dhering

to

"Win-win

Cooperation"Philosophy

Wins27構(gòu)建多元化供應(yīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)格局BuildingaDiversifiedGlobal

SupplyChainNetwork培育智能驅(qū)動(dòng)新動(dòng)能引擎CultivatingNewDriversPoweredbyIntelligence共塑綠色可持續(xù)發(fā)展生態(tài)Co-Creatinga

SustainableEcosystem4.24.34.4272929全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)Multi-DimensionalEvolutionand

StructuralReconfiguration

of

Global

Supply

Chains—2—回顧2024年，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在多重因素影響下緩慢復(fù)蘇，貿(mào)易需求總體上升，通脹壓力有所緩解，不

同經(jīng)濟(jì)體的發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)分化態(tài)勢(shì)。在發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)保持強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭，但歐元區(qū)及日本則顯

現(xiàn)出復(fù)蘇動(dòng)能不足；與此同時(shí)，新興市場(chǎng)與發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體呈現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性分化，亞洲區(qū)憑借產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈韌性及

政策空間支撐，增長(zhǎng)表現(xiàn)尤為突出。進(jìn)入2025年，受地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)、貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭以及高債

務(wù)問(wèn)題等不確定性因素影響，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將處于周期調(diào)整之中。2025年4月份，IMF發(fā)布的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

展望》報(bào)告指出，2025年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期為2.8%,較2024年下調(diào)0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍低于

疫情前平均水平?；谌蚪?jīng)濟(jì)當(dāng)前的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，全球供應(yīng)鏈呈現(xiàn)出暫時(shí)的逆全球化特征，具體表現(xiàn)為地緣沖突重

塑生產(chǎn)布局以及區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作深化對(duì)全球化分工的部分替代。同時(shí)，隨著前沿技術(shù)創(chuàng)新不斷突破瓶

頸、氣候問(wèn)題催生可持續(xù)發(fā)展訴求，全球供應(yīng)鏈在多維度重構(gòu)中保持動(dòng)態(tài)平衡與發(fā)展，并呈現(xiàn)區(qū)域

化、復(fù)雜化、數(shù)智化及綠色化的“四化”特征。全球各國(guó)政治經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的深刻變化是導(dǎo)致地緣格局深度重構(gòu)的主要因素。西方國(guó)家已難單獨(dú)主

導(dǎo)全球規(guī)則制定與經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行方向，而以中國(guó)為代表的新興市場(chǎng)作用日益凸顯。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力也從傳統(tǒng)

西方中心向亞太轉(zhuǎn)移，全球市場(chǎng)由此呈現(xiàn)新的動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)與板塊調(diào)整。隨著全球供應(yīng)鏈越來(lái)越多地向中

國(guó)等新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)移，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的產(chǎn)業(yè)空心化日趨嚴(yán)重。在這種新的地緣政治經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下，各

發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家選擇通過(guò)降低自身在全球供應(yīng)鏈中對(duì)其他國(guó)家的依賴(lài)程度，以確保全球供應(yīng)鏈的安全并加

強(qiáng)本國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)自主性。為達(dá)到此目的，美國(guó)及其歐洲盟友開(kāi)始試圖通過(guò)相關(guān)政策工具組合推進(jìn)所謂的

生產(chǎn)回流、近岸外包和友岸外包，將產(chǎn)能有針對(duì)性地轉(zhuǎn)移至本土、鄰近或政治盟友國(guó)家，以此重新設(shè)計(jì)

與建立全新的全球供應(yīng)鏈體系。圖1中美國(guó)對(duì)其主要貿(mào)易伙伴進(jìn)口額的變化，清晰展現(xiàn)近岸外包、關(guān)稅

制裁等政策組合帶來(lái)的貿(mào)易阻滯，如何打破全球化分工節(jié)奏，并迫使供應(yīng)鏈在區(qū)域內(nèi)重新布局，成為

全

球

供

應(yīng)

鏈區(qū)

域

化

的

催

化

劑

。全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)Multi-Dimensional

Evolution

and

Structural

Reconfiguration

ofGlobalSupplyChains4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001.5001,000500加拿大墨西哥中國(guó)英國(guó)

日本德國(guó)韓國(guó)

印度

馬來(lái)西亞越南2023年美國(guó)進(jìn)口金額

2024年美國(guó)進(jìn)口金額—

2024年進(jìn)口占比變化圖12023年及2024年美國(guó)主要進(jìn)口伙伴進(jìn)口額變化(單位：億美元，百分點(diǎn))資料來(lái)源：國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、萬(wàn)

得(Wind)(一)地緣重構(gòu)與近岸外包加速區(qū)域化0.50.40.30.20.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5億美元—3—In2024,theworldeconomyrecoveredslowlyundertheimpactofmultiplefactors.Tradedemandgenerally

increasedandinflationarypressureseased,buttheperformanceofdifferenteconomies

diverged.Amongdeveloped

economies,theUnited

States

continuedto

grow

strongly,whereasthe

Euro

area

and

Japan

showedinsufficient

momentum.Emerging

and

developing

economies

experiencedstructural

divergence;Asia'seconomic

growth,supported

by

supply-chain

resilience

and

policy

space,stood

out.Entering

2025,geopoliti-caltensions,theriseof

tradeprotectionismandhighdebtlevelsmeantheworldeconomyremains

in

a

cyclicaladjustment

phase.According

to

the

International

Monetary

Fund's

April

2025

World

Economic

Outlook,globalgrowthisprojectedat2.8percentin

2025.This

represents

a

0.4percentage

point

decrease

from

2024andremainsbelowthe

historical

pre-pandemic

average.Against

this

backdrop,global

supply

chains

exhibit

temporary

de-globalization:geopolitical

conflicts

are

reshaping

productionlayouts,andregionaleconomicintegrationispartlyreplacingtheglobaldivisionoflabor.

Atthesametime,advancesinfrontiertechnologies

andthe

urgent

need

to

address

climate

issues

mean

supplychainsarebeingcontinuouslyreconfiguredwhilemaintaining

dynamic

balance.Four

characteristics

are

emerging:regionalization,greatercomplexity,digital-intelligenttransformationandgreendevelopment.Changes

in

the

balance

ofglobal

political

and

economic

power

are

the

main

driver

ofdeep

geopolitical

restructuring.Westerncountriescannolongersolelydictateglobalrulesandeconomicdirection,whileemerg-ingmarketsrepresentedby

China

areplayinganincreasinglyprominentrole.Economicgrowthisshiftingfrom

a

traditional

Western

center

towards

the

Asia-Pacific,resulting

in

a

new

power

structure

and

adjustment

of

globalmarkets.AssupplychainsincreasinglyshifttoChinaandotheremergingeconomies,developedcoun-

tries

are

experiencing

growing

industrial

hollowing-out.In

this

new

geopolitical

and

economic

context,many

developed

countries

are

seekingtoreducetheirdependenceonotherswithin

global

supply

chainsinorderto

safeguard

supply-chain

security

andreinforcetheir

economic

autonomy.Tothat

end,theUnited

States

and

itsEuropean

allies

are

using

policy

tools

to

promote

reshoring,nearshoring

and

friendshoring,targeting

produc-tioncapacityathome,inneighboringcountriesorin

allied

states.Figure

l

illustrates

how

such

nearshoring

and

tariff-relatedpolicieshavedisruptedthe

globaldivision

oflaborbyimpeding

trade

and

forcingregionalrelo-

cationofsupplychains,thusacceleratingregionalization.全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)Multi-Dimensional

Evolution

andStructuralReconfiguration

of

GlobalSupplyChains0.50.40.30.20.10.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5VietnamSouth

KoreaMalaysia2023

U.S.ImportValue2024

U.S.ImoirtValue—Changein

ImportShare

in2024Figure

1.Changes

in

U.S.Importsfrom

MajorTrading

Partners

in2023and2024Source:InternationalMonetary

Fund(IMF);Wind.1.1GeopoliticalRealignmentandNearshoringAccelerateRegionalization4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500MexicoUS$

Bilion—4—Japan心China美國(guó)特朗普政府主導(dǎo)的關(guān)稅政策與貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義浪潮成為影響全球供應(yīng)鏈的代表性事件。2025年，特朗普政府延續(xù)并強(qiáng)化“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”策略，對(duì)進(jìn)口商品大規(guī)模加征關(guān)稅，針對(duì)鋼鐵、半導(dǎo)體、消費(fèi)品等

關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域分階段實(shí)施的高額關(guān)稅措施，直接引發(fā)了全球貿(mào)易摩擦升級(jí)。這種通過(guò)高額關(guān)稅政策對(duì)市場(chǎng)

機(jī)制進(jìn)行干預(yù)的行為，不可避免地降低了貿(mào)易效率，扭曲了全球產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈協(xié)同機(jī)制，阻礙了資源要素在更

大范圍內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)最優(yōu)配置，也給全球化背景下的國(guó)際分工體系帶來(lái)了結(jié)構(gòu)性壓力。同時(shí)，全球供應(yīng)鏈還面臨著由多重不確定性交織而成的復(fù)雜外部環(huán)境。地緣政治沖突的持續(xù)發(fā)酵、

經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的劇烈震蕩以及突發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的破壞性沖擊等“黑天鵝”事件頻發(fā)，不斷打破既有經(jīng)貿(mào)秩序的穩(wěn)定

框架，使供應(yīng)鏈體系暴露于高度動(dòng)態(tài)化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口之中。聯(lián)合國(guó)貿(mào)易和發(fā)展會(huì)議2025年7月公布的數(shù)據(jù)

(見(jiàn)圖2)顯示，2024年第四季度全球貨物貿(mào)易季度增速驟降至0.5%,服務(wù)貿(mào)易放緩至2.0%,在2025年

上半年雖有所復(fù)蘇，但持續(xù)的關(guān)稅政策擾動(dòng)、地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)以及全球增長(zhǎng)放緩的跡象，致使全球

2025年下半年的貿(mào)易前景仍不容樂(lè)觀，給全球供應(yīng)鏈帶來(lái)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。這些不確定性因素加劇了供應(yīng)

鏈的脆弱性和中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，迫使企業(yè)在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控與效率追求之間尋求平衡。以2022年俄烏沖突、2023年巴

以沖突對(duì)紅海航運(yùn)的持續(xù)性干擾為例，運(yùn)輸路線的被迫調(diào)整導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)鏈復(fù)雜性上升，燃油價(jià)格與航運(yùn)

成本長(zhǎng)期高企(見(jiàn)圖3),直接揭示了地緣政治波動(dòng)對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈穩(wěn)定性的深度沖擊。面對(duì)當(dāng)前復(fù)雜的外部環(huán)境，全球的企業(yè)出于安全性考量，不得不對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈進(jìn)行防御性重構(gòu)。但在信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)期強(qiáng)化的雙重作用下，這種策略調(diào)整易演化為過(guò)度的供應(yīng)鏈冗余，表現(xiàn)為產(chǎn)能重復(fù)

建設(shè)、庫(kù)存規(guī)模非理性擴(kuò)張以及合作伙伴的低效率重疊，進(jìn)而對(duì)全球企業(yè)資產(chǎn)、資本、資金的最優(yōu)配置

形成新的阻礙。值得關(guān)注的是，這種由環(huán)境復(fù)雜性引致的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，本質(zhì)上折射出全球化進(jìn)程中“對(duì)

確定性的追求”與“不確定性常態(tài)化”的深層矛盾，也對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈治理范式的重構(gòu)提出了緊迫要求。在此背景下，構(gòu)建多元化的供應(yīng)鏈策略已成為應(yīng)對(duì)復(fù)雜環(huán)境的必然選擇，其核心要義在于通過(guò)空間布局分散化、合作網(wǎng)絡(luò)立體化以及響應(yīng)機(jī)制彈性化，在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控與效率提升之間構(gòu)建動(dòng)態(tài)平衡的新

架構(gòu)。全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)Multi-DimensionalEvolutionandStructuralReconfigurationofGlobalSupply

Chains30.0%20.0%10.0%0.02019-Q1

2022-017

202401

2025-01

-10.0%-20.0%-30.0%---服務(wù)季度增速

—

服務(wù)年度增速---

貨物季度增速—

貨做華度增速圖2全球2019年至2025年第二季度貨物和服務(wù)貿(mào)易額的年度/季度增長(zhǎng)變化

資料來(lái)源：UNCTADstat,聯(lián)合國(guó)貿(mào)易和發(fā)展會(huì)議統(tǒng)計(jì)(二)關(guān)稅政策與系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇復(fù)雜性一

期貨結(jié)算價(jià)(連續(xù));布給特原油圖32015年—2025年布倫特原油期貨結(jié)算價(jià)趨勢(shì)圖(單位：美元/桶)

資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得(Wind),數(shù)據(jù)更新至2025年7月22日14012010080604020-2015

2016

2017

201820192020年份2021

2022

2023

2024

2025—5—美元/桶Tariffpolicies

and

a

wave

oftrade

protectionism

spearheaded

by

the

Trump

administration

have

been

central

events

affecting

global

supply

chains.In

2025,the

administration

continued

and

intensified

the"America

First"

strategy,imposing

widespread

tariffs-especially

on

steel,semiconductors

and

consumer

goods-and

triggering

anescalationoftradefrictions.Suchhighduties

distort

markets,damage

efficiency,hinder

optimal

allocation

ofresources

and

place

structural

pressure

on

the

international

division

of

labor.At

the

same

time,global

supply

chains

face

a

complex

external

environment

shaped

by

intertwined

uncer-

tainties.Ongoing

geopolitical

conflicts,sharp

economic

cycles

and

destructive

wars-"black

swan"events-are

constantly

disrupting

the

stability

ofexisting

trade

frameworks

and

exposing

supply

chains

to

a

highly

dynamic

risk

profile.According

to

UNCTAD

data

released

in

July

2025(Figure

2),growth

in

global

goods

trade

fell

to

0.5

percent

in

the

fourth

quarter

of

2024,whileservices

trade

growth

narrowed

to

2.0

percent.Although

therewassomerecoveryin

the

first

halfof2025,continued

tariffdisruptions,geopoliticaltensions

and

signs

ofslowing

global

growth

mean

the

outlook

for

the

second

half

of

2025remains

unpromising,posing

systemicrisks

to

supply

chains.These

uncertainties

make

supply

chains

more

vulnerable

and

increase

the

risk

of

disrup-

tions,forcing

companies

to

strike

a

balance

between

risk

management

and

efficiency.The

persistent

disruptionto

Red

Sea

shipping

caused

by

the

Russia-Ukraine

conflict

in

2022

and

the

Gaza

conflict

in

2023

is

a

case

inpoint:routechangesincreased

complexity,and

high

oil

and

shipping

costs(Figure

3)provide

direct

evidence

ofthe

impact

of

geopolitical

volatility

onsupply

chain

stability.全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)Multi-Dimensional

Evolution

and

Structural

Reconfiguration

ofGlobal

Supply

ChainsIn

the

current

environment,companies

around

the

world

have

been

forced

to

make

defensive

adjustments

to

their

supply

chains

to

ensure

security.Yet

under

the

dual

effects

ofinformation

asymmetry

and

heightened

risk

expectations,suchadjustmentstendtobecome

excessive,leading

to

redundant

capacity

deployment,irrational

expansion

of

inventories

and

inefficient

overlap

of

partners.These

factors

hinder

optimalallocation

of

assets,

capital

and

funds

and

reveal

the

fundamental

contradiction

in

globalization

between

the

pursuit

ofcertainty

and

the

normalization

of

uncertainty.They

also

highlight

the

urgency

of

reconfiguring

supply

chain

governance.Undertheseconditions,buildingadiversified

supplychain

strategy

hasbecome

essential

for

coping

with

complexity.The

core

is

to

strike

a

new

dynamic

equilibrium

between

risk

prevention

and

efficiency

by

diversi-fying

spatial

layouts,constructing

multi-layered

cooperation

networks

and

increasing

the

flexibility

inresponse

mechanisms.30%20%10%10

2022-Q1

263

202401

2025-Q1-10%-20%-30%Years12020162017

201820792020

2021

2022

Years一

rmtCurdeCantinussFuturesSottlaentPrices1.2

Tariff

Policies

and

Systemic

Risks

Increase

ComplexityFigure2.Annualand

Quarterly

Growth

in

GlobalTradeinGoodsand

Services,2019-Q22025Source:UNCTADstat;United

Nations

Conference

on

Trade

and

Development.Figure3.BrentCrude

Oil

Futures

Settlement

Prices,2015-2025Source:Wind,data

as

at

22July

2025.---QuaterlyGrowthRateofServices—AnnualGrowthRateofServices---

QunterlyGrowthRateofGoods一Anmual

Growth

Rate

of

Goods—6—Us/Barrel2023

202420252019-Q12050%全球供應(yīng)鏈的數(shù)智化演進(jìn)，依托基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的堅(jiān)實(shí)支撐、通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)的高效聯(lián)通與創(chuàng)新技術(shù)的深度滲

透，三者協(xié)同推動(dòng)供應(yīng)鏈從傳統(tǒng)模式向數(shù)智化模式加速躍遷。物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施作為供應(yīng)鏈的物理載體，是保障產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈供應(yīng)鏈順暢運(yùn)行的基礎(chǔ)。面對(duì)地緣政治沖突、

極端天氣等挑戰(zhàn)，全球物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施通過(guò)海洋運(yùn)力增長(zhǎng)、鐵路貨運(yùn)規(guī)模擴(kuò)張、航空貨運(yùn)能力提升，構(gòu)建

起海陸空立體運(yùn)輸網(wǎng)絡(luò)，保障供應(yīng)鏈各環(huán)節(jié)有效連接。其不僅承擔(dān)著貨物流轉(zhuǎn)的基礎(chǔ)功能，更作為智能

倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)、無(wú)人配送等數(shù)智技術(shù)的核心載體，通過(guò)自動(dòng)化、網(wǎng)絡(luò)化提升實(shí)體流通效率，為供應(yīng)鏈穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行提

供底層支撐。通信基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施作為供應(yīng)鏈數(shù)智化的核心支撐，驅(qū)動(dòng)其向精細(xì)化、智能化升級(jí)。5G

等新一代通信技術(shù)

的規(guī)?；渴?，加速數(shù)據(jù)要素流動(dòng)與算力供給。全球5G

基站的廣泛建設(shè)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)覆蓋的持續(xù)拓展，實(shí)現(xiàn)信

息交互的高速化與無(wú)縫化。通信技術(shù)與產(chǎn)業(yè)深度融合，打破企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)壁壘，促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上下游實(shí)時(shí)協(xié)

同，使供應(yīng)鏈能精準(zhǔn)感知需求、快速響應(yīng)市場(chǎng)，為智能化升級(jí)奠定信息流通基礎(chǔ)。創(chuàng)新技術(shù)的深度應(yīng)用是供應(yīng)鏈數(shù)智化的核心引擎，推動(dòng)決策范式從經(jīng)驗(yàn)驅(qū)動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)向智能驅(qū)動(dòng)。人工智

能、機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)解析海量數(shù)據(jù)，實(shí)現(xiàn)需求預(yù)測(cè)、庫(kù)存與生產(chǎn)動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化；數(shù)字孿生技術(shù)構(gòu)建物理供應(yīng)鏈虛擬

映射，實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)控模擬，預(yù)判風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并優(yōu)化決策；區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)保障數(shù)據(jù)安全可信，提升跨境貿(mào)易與供應(yīng)鏈金

融效率。這些技術(shù)賦予供應(yīng)鏈“自感知、自決策、自?xún)?yōu)化”的智能屬性，增強(qiáng)其在復(fù)雜環(huán)境中的韌性與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。全球供應(yīng)鏈向數(shù)智化躍遷歷經(jīng)了不同的階段，具體包括萌芽期、普及期及深化期，不同時(shí)期的演進(jìn)

邏輯與核心特征(見(jiàn)表1)。在萌芽期，條形碼等技術(shù)應(yīng)用打通企業(yè)內(nèi)部信息，但受技術(shù)孤島與靜態(tài)決策機(jī)制限制，效率與協(xié)同

性不足。在普及期，物聯(lián)網(wǎng)等技術(shù)的普及產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈數(shù)據(jù)互通的實(shí)現(xiàn)，推動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)化轉(zhuǎn)型并實(shí)現(xiàn)敏捷響應(yīng)。在深

化期，根據(jù)全球IT研究與顧問(wèn)咨詢(xún)公司Gartner

發(fā)布的專(zhuān)題報(bào)告《2025年重要戰(zhàn)略技術(shù)趨勢(shì)》(見(jiàn)圖4),人

工智能等技術(shù)滲透，實(shí)現(xiàn)智能決策與動(dòng)態(tài)優(yōu)化，提升了供應(yīng)鏈韌性。雖面臨算力與算法倫理挑戰(zhàn)，但仍標(biāo)全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)Multi-DimensionalEvolutionandStructuralReconfigurationofGlobalSupply

Chains維度萌芽期普及期深化期技術(shù)范式流程數(shù)字化產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)同化決策智能化數(shù)據(jù)范圍企業(yè)內(nèi)部數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈數(shù)據(jù)跨鏈數(shù)據(jù)決策主體人工經(jīng)驗(yàn)系統(tǒng)輔助算法賦能競(jìng)爭(zhēng)焦點(diǎn)成本效率敏捷響應(yīng)創(chuàng)新可持續(xù)通過(guò)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)與創(chuàng)新技術(shù)的融合，構(gòu)建起全球供應(yīng)鏈數(shù)智化生態(tài)體系。物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施保

障實(shí)體流通，通信基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施促進(jìn)信息交互，創(chuàng)新技術(shù)驅(qū)動(dòng)智能決策，三者相輔相成，共同重塑全球價(jià)值

鏈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局，推動(dòng)供應(yīng)鏈向更高效、更智能、更具韌性的方向演進(jìn)。人工智能體自主數(shù)據(jù)采集前沿技術(shù)趨勢(shì)決策智能智能仿真增強(qiáng)型互聯(lián)勞動(dòng)力■互聯(lián)性■

智能化(三)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、通信技術(shù)與創(chuàng)新技術(shù)驅(qū)動(dòng)供應(yīng)鏈提質(zhì)志著供應(yīng)鏈數(shù)智化從“數(shù)據(jù)互聯(lián)”向“智能決策”的關(guān)鍵邁進(jìn)。表1供應(yīng)鏈數(shù)智化演進(jìn)邏輯與核心特征圖

4

全

球IT研究與顧問(wèn)咨詢(xún)機(jī)構(gòu)Gartner

發(fā)布的專(zhuān)題報(bào)告《2025年重要戰(zhàn)略技術(shù)趨勢(shì)》資料來(lái)源：Gartner多模態(tài)

用戶界面囂多功能

機(jī)器人環(huán)境無(wú)感

智—7—6-The

digital-intelligent

evolution

of

global

supply

chains

relies

on

three

pillars:robust

infrastructure,

efficient

communications,and

widespread

adoption

ofinnovative

technologies.Together,theyenable

a

shift

from

traditional

to

digitallyintelligentoperational

models.Logistics

infrastructure

is

the

physical

backbone

of

supply

chains,enabling

smooth

operations

across

indus-

tries.Facinggeopoliticalconflicts

and

extreme

weather

events,global

logistics

has

responded

by

expandingmaritime

capacity,rail

freight,and

air

cargo

to

build

a

three-dimensional

land-sea-air

network

that

ensuresend-to-endconnectivity.Itnotonlymovesgoodsbutalsosupports

smart

warehousing

andunmanned

deliv-

ery.Byleveragingautomationand

connectivity,it

enhances

material

flow

and

stabilizes

supply

chain

opera-

tions.Communications

infrastructure

is

the

key

support

for

digital-intelligent

transformation,enabling

refinement

and

intelligence.The

large-scale

deployment

of

5G

and

next-generation

communications-sup-

ported

by

widespread

basestationsandexpanded

coverage-accelerates

dataflows,computing

power,and

seamless

information

exchange.Through

industrial

digitalization,enterprises

eliminate

data

silos

and

enable

real-timesupplychaincoordination,enhancing

demand

sensing

accuracy

and

market

responsiveness.The

deep

integration

of

innovative

technologies

serves

as

the

core

driver

of

digital-intelligent

supply

chains,

transforming

decision-making

from

experience-based

models

to

intelligence-driven

models.Artificial

intel-

ligence(AI)and

machine

learning(ML)analyze

vast

datasets

to

forecast

demand

and

dynamically

optimize

inventoryandproduction.Digitaltwintechnologycreates

virtual

replicas

ofphysical

supplychains,enabling

real-time

monitoring,proactive

risk

prediction,andoptimizeddecision-making.Blockchainensuresdata

security

andbuildstrust,streamliningcross-bordertradeandsupply

chain

finance.Together,thesetechnolo-gies

empower

supply

chains

with

self-regulating

capabilities-self-sensing,self-adjusting,and

self-optimiz-

ing-enhancing

both

resilienceandcompetitivenessinvolatileenvironments.Globalsupplychainshaveevolvedthroughthreedistinct

stages

ofdigital-intelligenttransformation-form-

ing,popularizing

and

deepening.The

following

section

outlines

the

logic

and

core

characteristics

of

each

stage

(Table

l).Inthe

forming

phase,barcodes

and

similar

technologies

integrate

internal

information,yet

fragmentedsystems

and

static

decision-makinghinder

efficiency

and

collaboration.Inthe

popularizing

phase,technolo-

giessuchasthe

Internet

ofThings

(IoT)enabledata

interconnectivity

across

the

industry

chains,promoting

networked

transformation

and

agile

responses.In

the

deepening

phase,as

highlighted

by

Gartner's

2025

supply

chain

technology

trends(Figure

4),AIandadvanced

technologiesempowerautonomousdecision-makingand

real-time

optimization,improving

supply

chainresilience.While

challengespersistin

computingpowerandalgorithmic

ethics,this

evolution

marks

a

paradigm

shift-from

mere

data

connectivity

to

true

cognitive

auto-全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)Multi-DimensionalEvolutionandStructuralReconfigurationofGlobalSupply

ChainsTheintegrationofinfrastructure,connectivity,andcutting-edgetechnologiesfosters

a

digital-intelligentecosystem

for

global

supply

chains.Logistics

infrastructure

powers

physical

flows,seamless

connectivityenables

real-time

information

exchange,and

innovation

powers

intelligent

decision-making.This

synergy

not

only

reshapesthe

competitiveness

of

global

value

chains,but

also

delivers

supply

chainsthat

aremoreefficient,intelligent,andresilient.DimensionForming

PhasePopularizing

PhaseDeepening

PhaseTechnological

FocusProcessDigitalizationI

n

du

s

t

r

i

a

1

CollaborationIntelligentDecision-

MakingData

ScopeInternalEnterprise

DataIndustryChainDataCross-NetworkDataDecision-making

BasisHuman

expertiseSystem-AssistedAlgorithm-EnabledCompetitive

FocusCostEffciencyAgile

ResponsivenessInnovation

and

Sustainability回

AIAgentAutonomousdata

collectionTop

techtrends二Polyfunctionalrobots二

■Connectivity

■

Inteligence1.3Infrastructure,CommunicationsandTechnologiesImproveSupplyChain

Efficiencymation.Table

1.Evolution

of

Supply

Chain

Digital-intelligent

DevelopmentFigure

4.Gartner's

Supply-chain

Frontier

TechnologyTrends

for2025Source:Gartner.—8—IntelligentsimulationDecision

IntellgenceMultimodl年份—全球：二氧化碳排放量圖51968年—2024年全球二氧化碳排放增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)(單位：百萬(wàn)噸)資料來(lái)源：萬(wàn)得(Wind)為應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化及其負(fù)面影響，各國(guó)于2015年共同達(dá)成了具有歷史意義的《巴黎協(xié)定》。然而，美國(guó)氣候政策的反復(fù)與不確定性持續(xù)擾動(dòng)全球供應(yīng)鏈綠色轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)程，削弱了國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)實(shí)現(xiàn)低碳目標(biāo)的信

心，延緩了整體轉(zhuǎn)型的節(jié)奏，使得以減碳為核心的供應(yīng)鏈重構(gòu)面臨深層挑戰(zhàn)。但這種政策波動(dòng)雖對(duì)短期減排節(jié)奏造成擾動(dòng)，卻不能改變?nèi)蚬?yīng)鏈綠色化的深層趨勢(shì)。與此同

時(shí)，全球氣候危機(jī)的持續(xù)加劇，將倒逼綠色技術(shù)的規(guī)?；瘧?yīng)用與國(guó)際氣候治理體系的加速完善。全球

供應(yīng)鏈將在這

一

系統(tǒng)性重構(gòu)中，最終邁向環(huán)境效益與經(jīng)濟(jì)效益協(xié)同共贏的新發(fā)展階段。40,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000019681972

1976

1980

1984

1988

199219962000200420082012

20162020

2024過(guò)去，全球供應(yīng)鏈在追求經(jīng)濟(jì)利益過(guò)程中，往往會(huì)忽視對(duì)環(huán)境的影響，生產(chǎn)環(huán)節(jié)的高能耗與高排放、物流運(yùn)輸中的燃油消耗與尾氣污染，以及包裝材料的不可降解等問(wèn)題較為突出。全球二氧化碳排放量逐年增長(zhǎng)(見(jiàn)圖5)。國(guó)際能源署(IEA)和全球碳計(jì)劃(Global

Carbon

Project)的權(quán)威數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年

全球能源相關(guān)二氧化碳排放量已達(dá)到378億噸的歷史高位，氣候變化已成為人類(lèi)文明面臨的最嚴(yán)峻挑

戰(zhàn)之

一。全球供應(yīng)鏈的多維演進(jìn)與格局重構(gòu)Multi-DimensionalEvolutionandStructuralReconfigurationofGlobalSupply

Chains(四)可持續(xù)發(fā)展理念驅(qū)動(dòng)綠色供應(yīng)鏈轉(zhuǎn)型百萬(wàn)噸—9—YearsGlobal:C02EmissionsFigure

5.Global

CO?emissions,1968-2024Source:WindTo

combat

climate

change

and

its

adverse

effects,world