方債務(wù)的增加對本地及其它地區(qū)企業(yè)投資均會產(chǎn)生負(fù)面擠出效在新發(fā)展階段，正確認(rèn)識和妥善化解地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險是2民幣，約占中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的48%。在風(fēng)險整體可控目前已經(jīng)有諸多文獻(xiàn)研究地方債規(guī)模擴(kuò)張對當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展何通過金融市場影響其它地區(qū)的企業(yè)投融資行為是需要深入研4支出，地方財政收支長期存在顯著缺口。在200算，2009年城投債發(fā)行規(guī)模就從以前的不足千億元增長到了三千億元以上。根據(jù)國家審計署2011年《加到6500余家，其中大部分是區(qū)縣級平臺；地方融資平臺中，政府負(fù)有償還責(zé)任的部分約為3.14萬億地方政府債務(wù)余額已增至約60萬億元人民幣，相對于生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的比例越近50%。這一債務(wù)規(guī)模的急劇擴(kuò)張不僅2014年新版《預(yù)算法》出爐，賦予了地方省級政府發(fā)債的具，而融資平臺債務(wù)不再確認(rèn)為地方政府債務(wù)。2015年起，地6單位：億元來源：中國地方政府債券信息公開平臺比重逐步提高，面臨的償債壓力也逐漸增大。根據(jù)單位：億元來源：中國地方政府債券信息公開平臺地方債規(guī)模擴(kuò)張?jiān)诶瓌咏?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和增加債務(wù)風(fēng)險正反兩個于地方債規(guī)模與企業(yè)投資的研究成果來看，一般存在三種觀點(diǎn)：本積累和縮小城鄉(xiāng)收入差距，間接推動企業(yè)投資。DeLong和Summers（2012）發(fā)現(xiàn)，地方政府舉債擴(kuò)大財政支出，可以有效8地方債務(wù)能夠促進(jìn)地區(qū)投資和GDP增長，地方債務(wù)“自發(fā)自還”用效率低下，從而惡化企業(yè)的投融資環(huán)境。Huang（2016）發(fā)現(xiàn)基于以上分析，提出假設(shè)H1:地方政府債務(wù)擴(kuò)張不僅會對據(jù)此，本文提出以下假設(shè)：H2:與國有企業(yè)相比，地方政府考HUANG(2020)的方法，數(shù)據(jù)主要來源于中國工業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫數(shù)據(jù)庫（ATS）將兩者進(jìn)行了匹配補(bǔ)充。而地方政府債務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)則參照徐軍偉等（2021）的方法，根據(jù)2018年的“新融資平臺”債務(wù)ADEBTt=ΣSc×DEBTc,t，Χc,t是城市層面控制變量的滯后，VariableObsMeanStd.Dev.MinMaxInvest(%)3378.027.061-.246DEBT(%).067.1020.924ADEBT(%)3378609.038628.60402090.389M2225318.7733.95826INF(%)2253.0723.141-6.2324.028LLOAN2Y(%)261786.53448.8237.532391.731LGOVBAL2Y2619-7.3125.567-224.847LGROWTH(%)285113.4563.136524LlGDPPC-1.448.777-3.591LlPOP5.807.7442.8687.988Llandprice16.038.7643.9128.102Cityid33774010.4291466.0716590也驗(yàn)證了上文的假設(shè)H1：地方債政府債務(wù)擴(kuò)張的同時，不僅會本文按照持股比例對總樣本進(jìn)行了國有企業(yè)和私營部門的差異。本文按照資產(chǎn)規(guī)模分布的前25%和后75%進(jìn)行大小企夠通過多元化的融資渠道和更廣泛的業(yè)務(wù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)來緩解地方債務(wù)這些回歸結(jié)果與之前地方政府債務(wù)擠出企業(yè)投資的研究一(1)Invest(2)Invest(3)Invest(4)Invest(5)Invest(6)InvestDEBT-0.04464**-0.10220***-0.10361***0.00054-0.07359**-0.00234**(0.020)(0.032)(0.026)(0.006)(0.032)(0.001)ADEBT-0.00001***-0.00001***-0.00001***-0.00005***-0.00005-0.00001***(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M2-0.00113***-0.00088**-0.00018-0.00042***-0.00069-0.00004*(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF-0.00501***-0.00508***-0.00325***-0.00046***-0.00374***-0.00023***(0.000)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LLOAN2Y0.000020.00004-0.000010.00005-0.00001**(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.00003-0.000080.000200.00060-0.00008(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LGROWTH0.000730.00039-0.000000.00062-0.00000(0.001)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LlGDP_PC0.010050.02068***-0.00685***0.013050.00153***(0.008)(0.006)(0.002)(0.009)(0.000)LlPOP0.019000.02992***-0.00620***0.014480.00197***(0.013)(0.011)(0.002)(0.013)(0.001)Lland_price10.00175-0.000640.00191*0.00015-0.00034(0.004)(0.004)(0.001)(0.004)(0.000)_cons0.08063***-0.03832-0.096760.03168***-0.01408-0.00483*(0.007)(0.068)(0.060)(0.012)(0.060)(0.003)NFirmsAllAllPrivateStateLargeSmallCityFEYESYESYESYESYESYESANND(ALLNEWNETDEBT)為表2是不包含城投債的存量有息債務(wù)對企業(yè)投資的回歸結(jié)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)InvestInvestInvestInvestInvestInvestNND-0.07493***-0.13382***-0.12833***-0.00473-0.10926***-0.00277**(0.023)(0.033)(0.027)(0.007)(0.033)(0.001)ANND-0.00001***-0.00002***-0.00001***-0.00006***-0.00005-0.00001***(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M2-0.00103***-0.00077*-0.00008-0.00042***-0.00060-0.00003*(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF-0.00497***-0.00506***-0.00324***-0.00046***-0.00374***-0.00023***(0.000)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LLOAN2Y0.000030.00005-0.000010.00007-0.00001**(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.00003-0.000090.000200.00060-0.00008(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LGROWTH0.000730.00039-0.000000.000630.00000LlGDP_PCLlPOPLland_price1_cons0.08033***(0.007)(0.001)0.00820(0.008)0.01689(0.013)0.00163(0.004)-0.02984(0.067)(0.000)0.01884***(0.006)0.02776**(0.011)-0.00080(0.004)-0.08796(0.060)(0.000)-0.00677***(0.002)-0.00612** (0.002)0.00193*(0.001)0.03147***(0.012)(0.001)0.01220(0.008)0.01356(0.012)0.00017(0.004)-0.01237(0.060)(0.000)0.00139***(0.000)0.00183***(0.001)-0.00034(0.000)-0.00423*(0.002)NFirmsAllAllPrivateStateLargeSmallCityFEYESYESYESYESYESYES上文測算了地方政府債務(wù)存量規(guī)模對企業(yè)投資乘數(shù)的影響，而政府債務(wù)在借貸和發(fā)行環(huán)節(jié)同樣會在信貸市場占用大量資金，因此接下來本文將測算新增地方政府債務(wù)對企業(yè)投資乘數(shù)的影其中ND（NEWDEBT）為新增地方債務(wù)規(guī)模，AND(ALLNEWDEBT)但地方債規(guī)模擴(kuò)張對信貸無序占用和對企業(yè)投資的擠出更多集(1)Invest(2)Invest(3)Invest(4)Invest(5)Invest(6)InvestND-0.14569***-0.11863***-0.14041***-0.01317-0.10520***0.00054(0.041)(0.041)(0.042)(0.010)(0.038)(0.002)AND-0.00004***-0.00012***-0.00006**-0.00002-0.00126***-0.00006***(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M20.00001-0.00080*-0.00006-0.00041**-0.00034-0.00001(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INFLATION-0.00361***-0.00733***-0.00394***-0.00057***-0.00581***-0.00032***(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LLOAN2Y-0.00012*0.000050.00001-0.00017**-0.00001***(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y0.000060.000070.000190.00031-0.00009(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LGROWTH0.00152***0.000910.000080.00038-0.00000(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LlGDP_PC-0.03745***0.01556**-0.00691***-0.001000.00058(0.008)(0.007)(0.002)(0.007)(0.000)LlPOP-0.02724**0.02460*-0.00827***-0.001310.00095(0.011)(0.013)(0.003)(0.011)(0.001)Lland_price10.00013-0.002460.00186-0.00152-0.00040(0.004)(0.004)(0.001)(0.004)(0.000)_cons0.07530***0.20283***-0.073540.04019**0.10202*0.00029(0.007)(0.059)(0.065)(0.017)(0.061)(0.003)NFirmsAllAllPrivateStateLargeSmallCityFEYESYESYESYESYESYES與前文基礎(chǔ)回歸類似，首先將被解釋變量更換為Nc,t，即某一城市所有新增企業(yè)數(shù)量該城市滯后一期(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1DEBT-1.91579***-0.57172*-0.28926***-0.08989**-0.13944**-0.09509(0.217)(0.323)(0.107)(0.045)(0.063)(0.146)ADEBT0.00003***0.00003**0.00001**0.00000**0.00000-0.00000(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M2-0.00512*-0.02692***-0.00544***-0.00257***-0.00539***-0.00925***(0.003)(0.003)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.002)INF-0.01638***-0.04447***-0.00937***-0.00435***-0.00896***-0.01852***(0.003)(0.004)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)LLOAN2Y0.00118***0.00019*0.000120.00022*0.00018LGOVBAL2YLGROWTHLlGDP_PCLlPOPLland_price1_cons1.04631***(0.051)(0.000)-0.02902***(0.007)-0.00538(0.005)-0.49708***(0.045)-0.57765***(0.056)-0.08799***(0.026)4.31891***(0.323)(0.000)-0.00501***(0.002)-0.00108(0.001)-0.12084***(0.013)-0.15314***(0.017)-0.00767(0.007)1.04680***(0.086)(0.000)-0.00497***(0.001)-0.00065(0.001)-0.04481***(0.009)-0.05502***(0.011)-0.00801**(0.004)0.41441***(0.050)(0.000)-0.00657***(0.002)0.00156(0.002)-0.08081***(0.014)-0.09412***(0.018)-0.01292**(0.005)0.68610***(0.088)(0.000)-0.01241***(0.003)-0.00375(0.002)-0.26325***(0.022)-0.27692***(0.025)-0.04005***(0.013)2.00262***(0.143)N分組情況全部觀測全部觀測微型企業(yè)小型企業(yè)中型企業(yè)大型企業(yè)增地方債務(wù)規(guī)模ND（NEWDEBTAND(ALLNEWDEBT)全國新增這說明政府債務(wù)的增加可能導(dǎo)致了資本和資源在不同地區(qū)間的重新分配。資金可能被吸引到更有潛力或更具增長前景的地區(qū)，(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1ND0.07537(0.380)0.19325(0.369)0.02748(0.110)0.01827(0.079)0.08431(0.068)0.09047(0.151)AND0.00097***0.00029***0.00009***0.00005***0.00006***0.00008*(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M2-0.01566***-0.02891***-0.00622***-0.00300***-0.00593***-0.01003***(0.003)(0.003)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.002)INF0.00348-0.03766***-0.00698***-0.00309***-0.00724***-0.01633***(0.003)(0.004)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.002)LLOAN2Y0.00087**0.00020**0.00015**0.00023**0.00016(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.02855***-0.00501***-0.00494***-0.00650**-0.01228***(0.007)(0.002)(0.001)(0.003)(0.003)LGROWTH-0.00792*-0.00103-0.000620.00156-0.00421*(0.004)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.002)LlGDP_PC-0.49628***-0.12443***-0.04223***-0.07955***-0.25416***(0.046)(0.014)(0.009)(0.014)(0.023)LlPOP-0.57845***-0.15859***-0.05278***-0.09419***-0.27436***(0.054)(0.017)(0.011)(0.018)(0.025)Lland_price1-0.08416***-0.00947-0.00834**-0.01380**-0.04159***(0.024)(0.007)(0.004)(0.005)(0.013)_cons0.90395***4.29652***1.06195***0.39869***0.68104***2.00450***(0.053)(0.283)(0.089)(0.049)(0.081)(0.132)N分組情況全部觀測全部觀測微型企業(yè)小型企業(yè)中型企業(yè)大型企業(yè)前文的分析中一直使用的是工業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫和全國稅收調(diào)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)I1I1I1I1I1DEBT-0.000190.002340.003610.003160.001500.00458(0.005)(0.005)(0.005)(0.003)(0.005)(0.009)ADEBT-0.00020***0.000000.00099*-0.00027**-0.00013-0.00039(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)(0.000)(0.002)M20.00028**0.00012-0.000080.00013*0.000080.00023(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF0.000380.00021-0.000270.00046**0.000090.00031(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)LLOAN2Y-0.00002-0.000030.000010.00004*-0.00004(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.000020.000040.000020.00019*-0.00017(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGROWTH0.000160.00023-0.00010-0.000080.00051*(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LlGDP_PC-0.00497*-0.01126***0.00230-0.00215-0.00248(0.003)(0.003)(0.002)(0.002)(0.005)LlPOP-0.01808*-0.02459**0.005050.00087-0.03353***(0.010)(0.010)(0.004)(0.015)(0.009)Lland_price10.00174**0.000940.00067*0.00107**-0.00056(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.002)_cons-0.029950.079990.16723**-0.07218**-0.015040.17102*(0.035)(0.065)(0.066)(0.033)(0.098)(0.087)N35073507234029362048ObsAllAllStatePrivateEastC&EFixEFYYYYYY述結(jié)果可能說明地方政府債務(wù)對上市公司投資的擠出效應(yīng)主要Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1NERDEBT0.00001***_cons2.89349***2.80102***2.47138***NCityFirmsIc,t=βDEBTc,t+YNERDEBTc,t+ΓXc,t+αc+mt+εc,t(3)其中Ic,t為被解釋變量，某一城市中所有企業(yè)的投資額Investc,t與方債存量余額Debtc,t與滯后GDPc,t—1的比。構(gòu)建方式：通過構(gòu)建權(quán)重，進(jìn)行加總，得到相鄰城市的政府債務(wù)NERDEBTc,t=ΣSc,t×DEBTc,t。NERGDPc,t—1為某一城市與之相鄰城市GDP加β+γ/M，溢出平均效應(yīng)：γ(1-1/M)，其余控制(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)I1I1I1I1I1I1DEBT-0.01704-0.11304**-0.11058***-0.00218-0.08790*-0.00492***(0.031)(0.035)(0.029)(0.006)(0.034)(0.001)NERDEBT0.00003**0.00002*0.000020.000030.00007*0.00000(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M20.000520.00109**0.00146***-0.00021*0.00118**0.00005**(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF-0.00389***-0.00245***-0.00193**-0.00066***-0.00118-0.00021***(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)LLOAN2Y-0.00011*-0.00006-0.000020.00003-0.00000LGOVBAL2YLGROWTHLlGDP_PCLlPOPLland_price1_cons0.43505***(0.072)(0.000)0.00059(0.001)0.00020(0.001)0.03302***(0.009)0.04436**(0.015)0.00021(0.005)0.08075(0.099)(0.000)0.00026(0.001)0.00008(0.001)0.03686***(0.007)0.05002***(0.013)-0.00219(0.004)-0.00488(0.087)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)0.000250.00102-0.00004(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)-0.000050.000580.00003(0.000)(0.001)(0.000)-0.00577**0.02545**0.00177***(0.002)(0.008)(0.000)-0.00541*0.03357**0.00265***(0.002)(0.013)(0.001)0.001780.00101-0.00024(0.001)(0.004)(0.000)0.09294***-0.025260.00996*(0.022)(0.091)(0.005)City283283282282258258FirmsAllAllStatePrivateEastC&EN(1)(2)(5)(6)(7)(8)I1I1I1I1I1I1DEBT-0.004790.002020.004420.002430.003100.00184(0.004)(0.005)(0.006)(0.003)(0.005)(0.009)NERDEBT0.000020.000010.00006-0.00002-0.00007***0.00017**(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)M20.00042***0.00012-0.000050.00013*0.000090.00022(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)INF0.000540.00021-0.000260.00045**0.000110.00029(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.001)LLOAN2Y-0.00002-0.00002-0.000000.00003-0.00005(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.000030.000020.000080.00017-0.00017LGROWTHLlGDP_PCLlPOPLland_price1_cons-0.04984(0.036)(0.000)(0.000)0.000160.00015(0.000)(0.000)-0.00490*-0.00993***(0.003)(0.003)-0.01839*-0.02308** (0.010)(0.010)0.00171**0.00099 (0.001)(0.001)0.082280.15943**(0.066)(0.065)(0.000)-0.00002(0.000)0.00080(0.001)0.00383(0.004)0.00068*(0.000)-0.06583**(0.032)(0.000)-0.00005(0.000)-0.00341*(0.002)0.00250 (0.014)0.00123** (0.001)-0.02893 (0.088)(0.000)0.00055**(0.000)-0.00272(0.004)-0.03512***(0.009)-0.00065 (0.002)0.18250** (0.086)City283283282282283283ObsAllAllStatePrivateEastC&EFixEFYYYYYY方政府債務(wù)擴(kuò)張并沒有對區(qū)域內(nèi)上市公司投資產(chǎn)生明顯的影響可能區(qū)域內(nèi)債務(wù)的擴(kuò)張會引起與之相鄰城市的非國有控股企業(yè)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1Number1DEBT-2.03859***(0.305)-1.88923***(0.385)-0.41587***(0.114)-0.14019*(0.082)-0.30142***(0.078)-0.73163***(0.195)NERDEBT0.00016***(0.000)0.00014***(0.000)0.00010***(0.000)0.00020***(0.000)0.00019**(0.000)0.00017***(0.000)M2-0.01354***(0.003)-0.02291***(0.003)-0.00397***(0.001)-0.00179***(0.000)-0.00394***(0.001)-0.00845***(0.001)INF-0.05522***-0.07422***-0.01394***-0.00556***-0.01387***-0.03160***(0.006)(0.006)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.003)LLOAN2Y0.00051*0.00017**-0.000060.00025**0.00007(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)LGOVBAL2Y-0.01723**-0.00364**-0.00450***-0.00529**-0.00671*(0.007)(0.001)(0.001)(0.002)(0.004)LGROWTH0.008870.001230.000250.00307**0.00389(0.005)(0.001)(0.001)(0.001)(0.003)LlGDP_PC-0.31261***-0.11219***-0.03042***-0.07980***-0.17388***(0.076)(0.012)(0.010)(0.014)(0.039)LlPOP-0.32981***-0.12010***-0.03328***-0.07377***-0.17665***(0.069)(0.015)(0.010)(0.016)(0.031)Lland_price1-0.05790**0.00071-0.01330-0.00037-0.02830**(0.023)(0.006)(0.010)(0.008)(0.012)_cons6.97019***(0.686)10.55123***2.21770***0.91676***1.89709***4.69469***(0.701)(0.176)(0.112)(0.168)(0.373)NCityFirms區(qū)的負(fù)面擠出效應(yīng)都更大。這也與之前的相關(guān)研究結(jié)果相吻本文還檢驗(yàn)了地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模擴(kuò)張和新注冊公司之間的格執(zhí)行“增量防范+存量化解”的治理邏輯，對地方政更符合市場規(guī)律，受到市場監(jiān)控，提高政府借貸活動的透明度，員即便在離任后也需對其任期內(nèi)所作出的債務(wù)決策負(fù)起完整的科技創(chuàng)新等高附加值產(chǎn)業(yè)，可以助力地方經(jīng)濟(jì)從“虛”向“實(shí)”[1]白重恩,張瓊.中國的資本回報率及其影響因素分析[J].世界經(jīng)濟(jì),2014,37(10):3-30.[2]陳斌開,張鵬飛,楊汝岱.政府教育投入、人力資本投資與中國城鄉(xiāng)收入差距[J].管理世界,2010(01):36-43.[3