Accelerating

RenewablesGrowthinASEAN

Challengesandpolicysuggestions

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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AcceleratingRenewablesGrowthinASEANAbstract

ChallengesandPolicySuggestions

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

Abstract

Eightofthe11memberstatesoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)haveadoptednetzeroemissionstargets,andrecentnationalenergyplansoutlinesubstantiallyhigherambitionsforrenewablecapacity.Achievingthesegoalswillrequiretimely,sustainedandstronglyco-ordinatedpolicyactiontounlockthescaleofrenewableenergydeploymentneededby2030andbeyond.

ThisreportexaminesthekeychallengeshinderingafastercapacitydeploymentofrenewablepowerinASEANandoutlinespotentialpolicysolutionsinformedbysuccessfulinternationalexperience.Italsoprovidesanassessmentofrenewable-energyauctiondesignoptions,anincreasinglyimportantprocurementmechanismthatisexpectedtoaccountforaround60%ofglobalcapacitygrowthby2030andisalreadyutilisedinseveralASEANcountries.

AcceleratingRenewablesGrowthinASEANAcknowledgements

ChallengesandPolicySuggestions

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheRenewableEnergyDivisionintheDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity.TheleadauthorsofthereportwereVasiliosAnatolitis-Pelka,HeymiBaharandPiotrBojek,whoalsoco-ordinatedtheproject.

PaoloFrankl,HeadoftheRenewableEnergyDivision,providedstrategicguidanceandinputtothiswork.SimonRolland,PeerapatVithayasrichareon,andHastiWianditaprovidedvaluablecommentsandfeedback.

ThisworkbenefitedfromreviewandcommentsfromtheASEANCentreforEnergy.

TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankRomydeCourtayforskilfullyeditingthedraft,andtheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice.

AcceleratingRenewablesGrowthinASEANIntroduction

ChallengesandPolicySuggestions

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Introduction

Context

ElectricitydemandintheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)hastripledoverthepasttwodecades,drivenbyrapideconomicgrowth,urbanisation,industrialexpansionandrisinglivingstandards.Mostcountrieshaverecordedannualelectricitygenerationgrowthofmorethan5%since2000.Cambodia,LaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic(LaoPDR)andVietNamhavesurpassed10%peryear.Muchofthisrisingdemandhasbeenmetbycoal-firedpowerplants,whichsupplied47%ofASEAN’selectricityin2024andremainrelativelyyoung,withanaverageageofaround15years.

Renewableenergyhadsignificantlyexpandedinrecentyears,ledbysolarPV,whoseinstalledcapacityhasincreasedsixfoldsince2018tonearly35GW.Still,hydropowercontinuestodominaterenewablegeneration.Overall,renewablesaccountedforonly25%ofASEAN’stotalelectricitysupplyin2024.Variablerenewableenergyhasplayedaverylimitedrolesofar.SolarPVandwindtogethercontributedlessthan5%ofelectricitygenerationinallASEANmemberstates–exceptVietNam–highlightingsignificantuntappedpotentialforthesetechnologies.

ASEANpossessesvastrenewable-energyresources,witharound20terawattsoftechnicalsolarandwindpotential–morethan55timesitscurrentelectricitygenerationcapacity.Withthesharpdeclineintheglobalcostofthesetechnologiesinrecentyears,tappingevenasmallshareofthispotentialcouldsignificantlydecreasetheregion’selectricitysupplycosts,strengtheningenergysecurityandreducingexposuretofossil-fuelpricevolatility.

Consideringtheuntappedpotentialandbenefits,severalASEANcountrieshaveannouncedmoreambitiousenergytransitiongoals.Eightoftheregion’s

11memberstateshavesetnetzeroemissionstargets.Recentnationalplansincludesignificantlyhigherobjectivesforrenewablecapacity.Forexample,Indonesia’snewElectricitySupplyBusinessPlan2025-2034plansmajorsolarandwindadditions.Malaysiaaimsfor70%renewablecapacityby2050.Thailand’sdraft2024powerdevelopmentplantargetsatleast50%renewablegenerationby2037.Singaporeplansupto6GWoflow-emissionelectricityimportsby2035.VietNam’sRevisedPowerDevelopmentPlan8sharplyraises2030solarambitionsandoutlinesapathwayforrenewablestoreachupto75%ofgenerationbythemiddleofthecentury.Combined,theseplanswouldmorethandoubleASEAN’sinstalledrenewablecapacityby2030.

AcceleratingRenewablesGrowthinASEANIntroduction

ChallengesandPolicySuggestions

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Totalinstalledrenewablecapacity(historicaland2030ambitions)statedingovernmentdocuments,2018-2030

GW

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2018

2024

2030

ASEAN

GW

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Hydro

2018

2024

2030

2018

2024

2030

2018

2024

2030

2018

2024

2030

2018

2024

2030

2018

2024

2030

VietNamIndonesiaPhilippinesThailandMalaysiaRestof

ASEAN

WindPVNon-specifiedOther

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:2030capacitydeploymentambitionsforrenewablesarebasedonfollowingdocuments:VietNam–RevisedPowerDevelopmentPlan8;Indonesia–ElectricitySupplyBusinessPlan2025-2034;Philippines-–EnergyPlan2023-2050;Thailand–DraftPowerDevelopmentPlanofThailand2024-2037;Malaysia–NationalEnergyTransitionRoadmap;restofASEAN–nationallydeterminedcontributionreportssubmittedtotheregistryoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.

RegionalinitiativesalsoplayagrowingroleinshapingASEAN’senergytransition.TheASEANVision2045andassociatedregionaltargetsstronglyemphasiseexpandingrenewableenergyandstrengtheningsystemintegrationtoensureitscost-effectiveandsecuredeployment.UndertheASEANPlanofActiononEnergyCo-operation2026-2030,memberstatesaimtoraisetheshareofrenewablesintheirinstalledpowercapacityto45%by2030,upfromaround35%today.Complementingthesegoals,theASEANPowerGridinitiativeseekstoenhancecross-borderelectricitytradeandexpandinterconnections,supportinggreaterutilisationofrenewableresourcesacrosstheregion.

SeveralASEANmemberstateshavealreadyintroducedimportantpolicymeasurestoacceleraterenewabledeployment.TheseincludecompetitiveauctionsinMalaysia,thePhilippinesandThailand;directpowerpurchaseagreements(PPAs)inSingaporeandVietNam;andnet-meteringschemesinBruneiDarussalam.Despitethisprogress,significantchallengespersist,underscoringtheneedfortimelyandco-ordinatedpolicyactiontounlockthescaleofrenewable-energygrowthrequiredtomeetASEAN’s2030ambitions.

AcceleratingRenewablesGrowthinASEANIntroduction

ChallengesandPolicySuggestions

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Objectiveofthispaper

ThispaperidentifiesthemostpressingchallengesthatcontinuetohamperfastercapacitydeploymentofrenewablepoweracrossmanyASEANmemberstates.Itaimstoprovidepolicymakerswithpotentialpolicysolutionsandpriorities,drawingonsuccessfulinternationalexperience.Theproposedmeasurescanspurtherenewabledeploymentneededtomeet2030nationalambitions.

Thepapergroupsthechallengesintothreebroadcategories:

Challengesrelatedtoelevatedinvestmentriskandhigherrenewablegenerationcosts:

lackofimplementationdetailsinnationalplans

insufficientpolicysupporttoensurelong-termrevenuesandde-riskinvestments

elevatedriskperceptionofPPAswithpublicutilitiesandadministrativebarrierstocorporatePPAs

foreign-ownershiprestrictionsandlimitedco-ordinationbetweendomestic-contentrequirementsanddeploymentplans.

ChallengesrelatedtopowersystemandfossilfuelPPAsinflexibility:

inflexiblePPAswithconventionalgenerators

lackofremunerationforflexibilityandancillaryservices

insufficientincentivesfordistributedsolarPVdevelopment.

Challengesinpermitting,communityengagementanddataavailability:

lengthyandcomplicatedpermittingprocedures

limitedengagementwithlocalcommunities

limitedpublicdataandhighpredevelopmentrisksforgeothermalprojects

Thereportalsoexploreskeydesignoptionsforcompetitiveauctions,whicharethedominantprocurementmechanismforrenewablesgloballyandimplementedacrossASEAN.ThedesignoptionspresentedarerelevanttobothASEANmemberstateswithestablishedmechanismsandthosethatarenewlyadoptingauctionsystems.

ThepresenceandtypesofchallengesvarysignificantlyacrossASEANcountries.Theyreflectdifferencesinpower-marketdesign,thegenerationmix,systemflexibility,institutionalcapacityanddeploymentambitionsforrenewables.Policymakersshouldconsiderthesedifferencescarefullywhenassessingtherelevanceandapplicabilityoftheproposedpolicyoptionstoeachnationalcontext.

AcceleratingRenewablesGrowthinASEANKeypolicysuggestionssummary

Challengesandpolicysuggestions

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Keypolicysuggestionssummary

PolicysuggestionsforASEANmemberstatestoacceleraterenewablecapacitydeployment,groupedbyaddressedchallenge

Policyrecommendation

Policypriorities

Internationalexamples

1.Keychallengesandpolicysuggestionstoacceleraterenewablecapacitydeployment

1.1.Challengesrelatedtoelevatedinvestmentriskandhigherrenewablegenerationcosts

Increasethepolicy

supporttoensurelong-termrevenuesandde-riskinvestments

Establishlarge-scaleandcompetitiverenewable-procurement

programmes,anchoredinclearlong-termstrategiesandimplementedthroughfixedmulti-yearschedules.

Competitiveauctionshavebecometheprimarymechanismgloballyforprocuring

utility-scalerenewableenergy,accountingforalmost60%ofgrosscapacityadditionsexpectedin2025-2030.

InIndia,large-scaleauctions–ledbycentralandstateagenciesandutilities–wereintroducedin2013.Theyremainthebackboneofutility-scalerenewabledeployment.Thailand,MalaysiaandthePhilippineshaveallrunsuccessfulrenewableenergy

auctions.

InChina,administrativelysetfeed-intariffssupportedrapidPVandonshorewindgrowthbeforethetransitiontocompetitiveauctionsin2025.

InVietNam,generousfeed-intariffstriggeredboom-bustcycleacrossutility-scalesolarPV(2019),distributedPV(2020)andwind(2021).

Deploytargetedsupportfordispatchablerenewabletechnologiessuchasbioenergy,hydropowerandgeothermal.

Avoidretroactivepolicychangesandstop-and-gomeasures.

Includeimplementationdetailsinnationalplans

Regularlypublishandupdatenationalenergyplanstoreflectevolvingmarketconditions,technologicalprogressandchangesinsystem

needs.

Embedenergyplansinhigh-levellegislationtoincreasepolicycertaintyandminimisetheriskofabruptchangesorreversals.

Ensureclear,consistentandfrequentcommunicationofgovernmentcommitmentstoimplementingtheplan.

IntheEuropeanUnion,NationalEnergyandClimatePlansprovidestronginternationalexamplesofhigh-level,co-ordinatedenergyplanning.

Indiaoffersanotherexampleofhowconsistentpoliticalcommitmentcanprovideinvestmentclarity,evenintheabsenceofasingleconsolidatedplan.

Addresstheelevated

riskperceptionofPPAswithpublicutilitiesandadministrativebarrierstocorporatePPAs

Strengthenthefinancialhealthofthemainpower-purchasingutilities.

Considerthecreationofcreditworthy,government-backedagenciesorinstitutionsthatcanserveasintermediaries.

AdoptinternationallyrecognisedstandardsforPPAs.

InIndia,thegovernmentintroducedapayment-guaranteemechanismforauctionsconductedbythecentralagency,SolarEnergyCorporationofIndia.

InSingapore,corporatebuyerscansignPPAswithlicensedretailers,enablingindirectprocurementofrenewableelectricityviathegrid.InVietNam,acorporatePPA

schemelaunchedin2024.InMalaysia,theCorporateGreenPowerProgrammeprovidesafinancialPPAstructure.ThailandhasintroducedapilotcorporatePPA

AcceleratingRenewablesGrowthinASEANKeypolicysuggestionssummary

Challengesandpolicysuggestions

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PolicyrecommendationPolicyprioritiesInternationalexamples

Incorporateappropriateprice-indexationmechanismsintostandardcontracts.

schemeofupto2GW,enablinglargeconsumerstoprocurerenewableelectricitythroughathird-partygrid-accessframework.

SpainandFranceprovideguaranteescoveringupto80%ofthePPAvalueinthe

RemoveregulatoryandadministrativebarrierstocorporatePPA.

renewable-energyprojects.

throughtransparentprocurementprocesses.

generation.

firedplants.

Establishclearincentivemechanismsandupdateregulatory

Improveremunerationforflexibilityandancillaryservices.

Developtransparentprocurementprocessesandmarketrules.

Introducehybridrenewable-plus-storageauctions.

Settransparentandfaircurtailmentrules.

eventofbuyerdefault.TheEuropeanInvestmentBanksLendingEnvelopesupportsprivatefinancialintermediariesinunderwritingriskiertransactions.

IntheEuropeanUnion,competitiverenewable-energyauctionsincountriessuchas

Limitforeignownershiprestrictionsandincreaseco-ordinationbetween

domestic-content

requirementsand

capacitydeploymentplans

Minimisedomestic-contentrequirementsandalignrenewable-

deploymentstrategieswithsupply-chaindevelopment.

France,Germany,ItalyandUnitedKingdomapplyclear,non-discriminatoryparticipationrulesanduseanonymousonlinebiddingplatforms.

Indiapursuesamulti-stepstrategytobuildadomesticsolarPVsupplychain.The

strategyincludesphasedincreasesinimportdutiesonmodulesandcells,targeted

manufacturingsubsidiesthroughtheProduction-LinkedIncentiveschemeanda

gradualrequirementthatsystemsbenefitingfrompolicysupportusemodulesfromanapproveddomesticmanufacturerslist.

Avoidofficialandactualrestrictionsonforeignparticipationin

Ensureequaltreatmentofdomesticandinternationaldevelopers

1.2.ChallengesrelatedtopowersystemandfossilfuelPPAsinflexibility

IncreasetheflexibilityofPPAswithfossil-fuel

generators

Developacomprehensivelegal,regulatoryandfinancingframework

toenablerenegotiatingexistingPPAsandfuel-supplycontracts.

Indonesiaplanstoreduceitsfleetofcoalplantsgraduallystartinginthemid-2030s.ThePhilippineshasissuedamoratoriumonnewcoal-firedpowerplantsandis

exploringinnovativeoptionssuchastransitioncredits,whichwouldallowissuing

carboncreditsfortheearlyretirementofcoalplants.VietNamprohibitsnewcoal

projectsthatarenotalreadyunderconstructionandplanstoretireorrepurposeallexistingcoalplantsby2050.BruneiDarussalam,CambodiaandMalaysiahavealsoannouncedthatnonewgreenfieldcoalplantswillbebuilt.

InPoland,long-termPPAssignedinthe1990stofinancelargefossil-fuelplantslaterprovedincompatiblewiththeliberalisationoftheelectricitymarket.Thegovernmentterminatedthesecontractsandintroducedadedicatedstranded-costmechanismthatcompensatesgeneratorsbasedontheoriginalPPAtermsandactualoperatingcostsandmarketrevenues.

supportsystemflexibility.

ImprovethedesignofPPAsfornewfossil-fuelgeneratorstobetter

Accelerateelectrificationofendusestoabsorbgreaterrenewable

Considersupportingthephasedownandrepurposingoffossilfuel-

Introducethe

remunerationfor

flexibilityandancillaryservices

ThePhilippineslauncheditsancillaryservicemarketin2024,complementing

contractedreservesprocuredthroughtheAncillaryServiceProcurementAgreement.InChina,coal-firedplantretrofitsareakeyelementofthenationalstrategyto

enhancesystemflexibilityandfacilitatehigherdeploymentofvariablerenewableenergy.

ManyliberalisedpowermarketsincludingtheUnitedKingdom,France,ItalyandseveralUSmarkets(includingPJM,MISO,NYISO)operatecapacitymarketstorewarddispatchabilityandensurelong-termadequacy.

InIndia,overhalfofthe60GWawardedinrenewable-energyauctionsin2024

consistedofhybridprojectscombiningtechnologiessuchassolarPV,wind,pumped-storagehydropowerandbatteries.

frameworksforflexibilityservices.

Incorporatelocationalpricingsignalsintorenewableprocurement.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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PolicyrecommendationPolicyprioritiesInternationalexamples

InVietNam,attractivefeed-intariffstriggeredasurgeindistributedPVinstallationsin2020.However,theabsenceofalong-termremunerationframeworkledtoan

exportedelectricity.

unsustainablepaceofgrowthandincreasedgridcongestionchallenges.

Introducelong-term,market-basedremunerationschemesfor

Promotereal-timeself-consumptionmodels.

Increaseincentivesforthedevelopmentof

distributedsolarPV

Providetargetedsubsidiesorpreferentialfinancing.

BruneiDarussalam,MalaysiaandthePhilippineshaveimplementednet-meteringschemesenablingcustomerstooffsettheirconsumptionwithexports.Thailandappliesnetbillingatratesbelowtheretailtariff.

InIndia,deploymenthasacceleratedsincethelaunchofanenhancedresidential

Alignincentivesforutilities.

investmentsubsidyprogrammein2024,coveringupto40%ofthesystemcosts.Theschemeiscomplementedbynet-billingframeworksinmoststates.

1.3.Challengesofpermitting,communityengagementanddataavailability

Streamlinepermittingframeworks.

Establishone-stopshopstocentralisepermitting.

InIndia,governmentagenciessecureland,obtainkeypermitsandprovidesharedinfrastructure(suchastransmissionaccessandroads)inadvanceundertheSolarParksscheme.

Introduceclearandenforceabledeadlinesforpermittingdecisions.

Digitalisepermittingsystems.

Streamlinepermittingprocedures

Improvethecapacityofadministrativeoffices.

Germanyhasestablisheda“one-stopshop”foronshorewindthatservesasasingleinterfacewithnumerousgovernmentbodiesandlocalauthorities.Thegovernmenthasalsodesignatedacentralmaritimeauthorityasthesinglepointofcontactforalloffshorewindpermits.

Strengthenspatialplanningbydevelopingclearzoningguidelines.

Portugalhasdevelopedanonlinespatial-planningtoolthatidentifiesareaswithlowerenvironmental,land-useandcultural-heritagesensitivities.

Considerpredevelopingprioritysites.

Enablecommunityfinancialparticipation.

Implementtransparentbenefit-sharingframeworks.

Provideclear,consistentinformation.

Strengthensafeguardsforaffectedcommunities.

Greeceintroducedin2022asimplifiedandfullydigitalisedlicensingframeworkthatreducedthenumberofpermittingstepsfromseventofiveandallowedauthoritiestoprocessmultipleapplicationsstepsinparallel.

Enhancethe

engagementwithlocalcommunities

Engagecommunitiesearlyintheprojectcycle.

InFrance,developerscanearnadditionalpointsduringthenationalsolarPVauctionsiftheyincorporatecollectivefinancingbycitizensorlocalauthoritiesorshare

governancewithlocalresidents.

IrelandmandatesdirectfinancialbenefitsthroughaCommunityBenefitFundforoffshorewindprojects.UndertheRenewableEnergySupportScheme,successfuldevelopersarerequiredtoestablishafunddedicatedtosupportingtheeconomic,environmental,socialandculturalwell-beingoflocalcommunities.

OntheSpanishislandofGranCanaria,localtelevisionandradiostationswereusedtodisseminateearlyinformationaboutplannedrenewable-energydevelopments.

Improvetheavailabilityofsubsurfacedata.

Germany,theNetherlands,Italy,FranceandtheUnitedStateshaveestablished

Improveaccessto

subsurfacedataand

reducepredevelopmentrisksforgeothermal

projects

Introducemeasurestoreduceexplorationandearly-stagerisks.

publicrepositoriesforgeothermaldataandactivelyfundnewdataacquisition.Attheregionallevel,theEuropeanGeologicalDataInfrastructureconsolidatesand

standardisesgeothermalinformationforpublicuse.

Promotecollaborationwiththeoilandgasindustry.

TürkiyeandtheNetherlandsoperatedrilling-riskinsuranceschemesthatcompensatedevelopersifwellsfailtoproducecommerciallyviableresources.Kenya’spublic

AcceleratingRenewablesGrowthinASEANKeypolicysuggestionssummary

Challengesandpolicysuggestions

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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2.2.Delaysinprojectrealisation

Introducematerial

prequalificationcriteria

Malaysiarequiresextensivedocumentationaspartoftheprequalificationprocess,

suchastechnicalcapabilityproventhroughexperienceanddocumentsshowingthe

righttousethespecificlandastheprojectsite.Indiarequiresbidderstohavea

certainnetworthandliquidity,asstipulatedforinstanceintheguidelinesforsolarPVauctions.InGermany,biddersmustusuallyhaveapermitundertheFederalEmissionControlAct,whichalreadyincorporatesenvironmentalapprovalsandlandrights.

Considercontractindexation

Considerindexingcontractsforrenewablegenerators,linkedtotheconsumerpriceindexorrelevantcostcomponents(e.g.steelor

labour)toreduceinvestors’risksandpotentialprojectscancellations.

In2025,thePhilippinesstartedindexingtheauction-basedGreenenergytariff

(allocatedthroughthegreenenergyauctions),withthepriceadjustmentoccurringbetweentheawardandthestartofcommercialoperations.TheEuropean

PolicyrecommendationPolicyprioritiesInternationalexamples

GeothermalDevelopmentCompanyundertakesexplorationanddrilling.Indonesia

usespublic-privatepartnershipsforexploration.TürkiyeandIndonesiautiliserisk

mitigationschemesincollaborationwithinternationaldonors,suchastheWorldBank.

2.Keychallengesandpolicysuggestionsrelatedtorenewableauctiondesign

2.1.Lowparticipationinauctions

Simplifyauctiondesign

Keepauctionschemesassimpleaspossible,especiallywhenfirstintroducingauctionstoreduceentrybarriers.

AllASEANmemberstatesapplycapacity-basedauctionvolumes.IndiaandSouth

Africabothconductedtechnology-specific,price-onlyauctionswhentheyfirststartedtheirauctionschemes.MostcountriesinEuropesimilarlyrelyontechnology-specificandprice-onlyauctions.

Ensuretransparencytoincreaseinvestor

confidence

Maketenderdocumentsfreelyaccessibletoensurebroadoutreach.

Toincreasevisibilityregardingupcomingauctions,theSolarEnergyCorporationofIndiahasadedicatedtenderswebsite,alsofeaturingtherelevant“requestfor

selection”documents.Similarly,theEuropeanUnionsetuptheRESAuctionsPlatformaggregatingauctionsbyEUmemberstates.

MalaysiaandthePhilippinesusedtopublishdetailedinformationontherespective

auctionresults(bidpricesandvolumes).Thailandalsoprovidesextensiveinformationontheawardedbidders.Germanypublishescomprehensiveauctionresults,includinghistoricauctionresults.India,ItalyandSouthAfricaevenpublishresultsattheprojectlevel,encompassingbothsuccessfulandunsuccessfulbids.

Publishnationalauctionschedules(includingplannedvolumesandindicativetimelines)onacentralisedplatform.

Discloseauctionresults,suchasaverageawardedpricesandsubmittedandawardedvolumes,toguidemarketexpectations.

Defineready-to-developgeothermalareasandundertakeearlyexplorationactivities.

Minimiselocal-contentrequirements

Avoidstrictlocal-contentrequirementstoincreasecompetitionintheauctionsandavoiddelaysinprojectrealisatio