國(guó)際貿(mào)易

InternationalTrade

OutlineoftheTalkIntegrationofTradeDisintegrationofProductionChina’sCurrentTradeSituationSino-U.S.TradeRelationshipTraditionalTradeTheoryCurrentResearchTopicsQ&A/sundae_mengIntegrationofTradeHowmuchdowetrade?TradestillremainsaseeminglysmallfractionofGDPforrichcountries.Thedecadesleadingupto1913wasagoldenageofglobaltradeandinvestment.Theglobalintegrationoftradekeepsthesamelevel.Table1(Feenstra,1998)/sundae_meng/sundae_mengIntegrationofTrade/sundae_mengTheWorldIsMoreIntegratedThanEverSomefactsarehidden.Industrialcountrieshaveincreasingsharesoftheireconomiesdevotedtoservicesratherthanmanufacturing.Makecomparisonfromdifferentviews.Shouldmeasuremerchandisetraderelativetomerchandisevalue-added.Almostallcountrieshaveexperiencedsubstantialgrowthintrade.Table2/sundae_meng/sundae_mengTable1.2MerchandiseTradeRelativetoGDPandMerchandiseValue-Added,1960-1990(percent)/sundae_mengTable1.1U.S.MerchandiseTradebyIndustry,2001,SharesofTotalTradeandProductionorUse(percentages)Table1.3PercentageDistributionofExportsbyMajorTradingGroups,1985-1998HowtoExplainGrowingTrade?TradeLiberalizationGATT/WTORegionalTradeAgreements:CUSFTA,NAFTA,CARICOM,CACM,MERCOSUR,ASEAN,SPARTECA.FallingTransportationCost2/5tradegrowthcanbeexplainedbythesetwofactors.Whentradingpartnersbecomesmoresimilarinsize.--Example:WorldGDP=150;Scenario1:CountryA=100;countryB=25,countryC=25Scenario2:CountryA=50;countryB=50,countryC=50Maximumexportsaredifferent./sundae_mengDisintegrationofProductionDisintegrationofproductionitselfleadstomoretradedue,inlargepart,tothecalculationmethod.OutsourcingBarbiedollstory(Tempest,1996)Sellforabout$10intheU.S.MadeinMainlandChina,butexportfromHongKongfor$265centscovermaterialscost,35centspayforChineselabor.Theremaining1$fortransportationinChinaTheremaining7$fortransportation,marketing,wholesalingandretailing.$1fortheMattel./sundae_mengOutsourcingFirstmeasurement:tradeiscategorizedbytheend-user.TheU.S.tradeshiftsawayfromagricultureandrawmaterials,andtowardsmanufacturedgoodsintheU.S.trade.ProcessedmanufacturedgoodsplayanincreasingimportantroleinU.S.trade.Outsourcingisimportant!U.S.firmshavebeensubstitutingawayfromtheseprocessingactivitiesathome./sundae_meng/sundae_mengOutsourcingonthevalue-chain/sundae_mengAnothermeasurement:importedintermediategoods/sundae_mengTheWorldisFlatVerticalspecification:anothernameofOutsourcingU.S.hasadoublingoftheshareofimportedinputsbetween1975and1995forallmanufacturing.TheU.K.showsanespeciallylargeabsoluteincreaseinforeignoutsourcing./sundae_meng/sundae_mengChina’sCurrentTradePerformanceTradeGrowthTradeLiberalizationAccedetotheWTOTradePatternIncreaseoftheinwardFDI/sundae_mengGATT/WTOMembers/sundae_mengTradeOpennessChinabecamethe143rdmemberoftheGATT/WTOChinakeepsalargetradesurplus.Tradeopennessis$2,170billion,whichismorethan63%ofcurrentGDPin2007ThethirdlargestoneintheworldCurrentExportis$969billionandimportis$792billion.Sotradesurplusis$177billionin2006./sundae_mengDramaticIncreaseinOpenness/sundae_mengTradeOpenness/sundae_mengChina’sCurrentTradeSituationCurrenttradeopennessisaround64%ofGDP.China’sshareinworldtradehasgrownsteadilysince1979./sundae_mengChina’sTradeChinahasincreaseditspenetrationintorichcountries’market./sundae_mengChina’sTrade/sundae_meng/sundae_mengChina’sTradeSimultaneously,italsobecomesamoreimportantexportdestination./sundae_mengChina’sTrade/sundae_mengChina’sroleinAsianRegionalTradeChinaisnowamongthemostimportantexportdestinationsforotherAsianeconomies/sundae_mengStrongExportPotentialForwardinChinaChina’sintegrationwiththeworldeconomysofarisnotunprecedentedineitheritsscopeorspeed.ComparedtoJapan,Korea,andotherNIEsintheirfastdevelopmentperiod,China’sexportshavegrownataslowerratethantheirs.ThissuggeststhatChinacouldmaintainrelativelyhighstrongexportgrowthforyearstocome./sundae_meng/sundae_mengCompositionofTradeDiversifyfromaninitialheavyrelianceontextileandotherlightmanufacturing.Intheearly1990s,exportsprofilesrankasfollows:lightmanufacturing,textile,machineryandtransport(smallelectronics).Today,Chinaexportsmoresophisticatedelectronics,furniture,travelgoods,andindustrialsupplies./sundae_mengIntra-IndustryTradeSources:databaseofChinaCustoms/sundae_mengOutsourcinginChina/sundae_mengTradeBalanceChinakeepsamodestoveralltradesurplus.ChinahassignificanttradesurplusfromtradewiththeU.S.ButitwasoffsetbyanincreasingtradedeficitwiththerestofAsia./sundae_meng/sundae_mengSino-U.S.BilateralTradeThisyearChinareachesa$144billiontradesurpluswiththeU.S.Simultaneously,morethan3millionworkerslosttheirjobs.CongressmenintheU.S.threattoperformtradesanctionwithChina.—Impose27.4%hightariffs.PushRMBrevaluatestronglyandquickly.Pendingthepermanentmostfavorednation(MFN)treatment./sundae_mengQuestionsEconomicallyspeaking,isitdeficitnecessarybadforthedeficitcountry,andgoodforthesurpluscountry?Anyessentiallinkbetweentheblue-workerunemploymentandtradedeficit?IsitcrediblefortheU.S.congressionalthreat?/sundae_mengTradeDeficitisnotnecessarilybad!Checkthebasictradeidentity:TradeDeficit=NetInflowofForeignCapitalTradedeficitislikeborrowingmoneyfromforeigners.Thekeypointishowtouse.InvestmentorConsumption?Historicalstoriesin1980s,1990s,and2000s./sundae_mengTradeDeficititselfisnotBadTradedeficitmeansfinancingfromothercountries.Howtousesuchmoney?Consumeit?Investit?/sundae_mengTradeSurplusisnotnecessarilygood!Statistically,itisgoodforGDPcalculation.ButGDPdoesnotmeananything!ExportBoomingandProductivityImprovementTheterminationofMultilateralFiberAgreement(MFA)in2005.GreenGDP/sundae_mengTheFarCryfromU.S.WorkersAnyessentiallinkbetweentheblue-workerunemploymentandtradedeficit?No.TheelasticityofsubstitutionbetweenChineseexportandotherAsiancountries’exportisveryhigh.Theessentialreasonforhugeunemploymentisduetotheeconomyrecessioninyears2001-2003intheU.S./sundae_mengTheCongressionalThreatItisincredible.TheU.S.doesnothaveanyrighttoterminateourpermanentMFNtreatment.Theydon’tdaretouni-laterallyimposehightariffsonChinesetextileandgarments.ItviolatestheWTOprinciples.ItworsetheU.S.itselfduetotheelasticityofexportsandimports.Italreadygetshistoricallessonfromthestupidpolicy./sundae_mengRMBAppreciationHelps?/sundae_mengRMBAppreciationHelps?ChinaappreciatesitsRMBaround20%within3years/sundae_mengRMBAppreciationHelps?Changeinexchangeratemighthelpreducethebilateraltradedeficit,butcannotreducetheU.S.wholedeficit.TradingpatterninChinaandtheASEAN-10arequitesimilar.U.S.hastoimportsimilarproductsatahighercost.TherevaluationmaynottranslateintosignificanthigherpricesforChineseproductssoldintheU.S.Chinafirmsmaycuttheirprofitmarginstomaintaintheirpriceinstead.Evenifpricesgoup,U.S.consumersmaybeslowtoswitchtocompetingproducersfromothercountries,whichcausesmoretradedeficitintheshortrun./sundae_mengWhatdowestudyinTrade?GainsfromTradeEachtradingcountrygainsWithinacountry,somegainbutsomelosePatternofTradeWhotradewithwhomforwhat?Inter-sectionalv.s.intra-sectionaltradeGovernmentEffectofPolicyonTradeMultinationalCooperationandForeignDirect