1、目錄 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 執(zhí)行摘要2 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 EXECUTIVESUMMARY6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 前言10第一章 中國石油消費達峰與總量控制的背景與意義12一.中國是世界上石油消費總量和進口大國13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 二.保障能源安全需要合理引導(dǎo)石油消費16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 三.氣候變化對石油消費形成長期制約17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 四.建設(shè)“美麗中國”要求經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與石油消費盡早實現(xiàn)“脫鉤”18 HYPER

2、LINK l _TOC_250011 五.中國石油消費達峰與控制面臨挑戰(zhàn)19第二章 中國石油開發(fā)利用的真實成本22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 一.石油開發(fā)利用的環(huán)境影響23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 二.環(huán)境外部成本估算框架與方法28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 三.環(huán)境成本估算結(jié)果31第三章 中國石油消費情景與峰值分析32 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 一.影響石油消費的因素分析33 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 二.中國石油消費情景分析38 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 三

3、.石油消費情景分析主要結(jié)論38第四章 中國石油消費總量控制路徑與實施路線圖42 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 一.石油消費總量控制路線的設(shè)定和石油消費達峰43 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 二.油控路徑下的一次能源需求和碳排放44 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 三.油控路徑的實施路線圖45 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 四.石油消費總量控制促進經(jīng)濟增長51第五章 交通部門石油消費控制路徑524 | CHINA OIL CAP PROJECT HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 一.油控路徑下的交通部門減油潛力和

4、政策選項554 | CHINA OIL CAP PROJECT二.交通部門五大減油途徑的具體措施57三.汽車革命催生交通新業(yè)態(tài)62第六章 石化部門和其他部門石油消費控制路徑68一.油控路徑下石化部門的減油潛力和政策選項69二.石化部門五大減油途徑的具體措施71三.其它部門石油消費控制路徑77第七章 地方油控的主要方案和措施80一.地方政府在控制石油消費中的角色舉足輕重81二.石油消費的區(qū)域化差異是決策基礎(chǔ)82三.積極推動城市交通電動化83四.制定分地區(qū)、分車型、分階段傳統(tǒng)燃油汽車退出時間表85五.杭州市石油達峰與控制案例87第八章 石油消費達峰與總量控制的保障途徑與措施90一.建議采納油控研究

5、項目提出的關(guān)鍵性措施.91二.推動石油開發(fā)利用外部成本內(nèi)部化92三.加快調(diào)整和取消不合理石油補貼92四.完善促進節(jié)約替代石油的財稅政策93五.把深化鐵路和公共交通市場化改革與石油交通消費總量控制結(jié)合起來94六.深化石油相關(guān)領(lǐng)域體制改革94七.科技創(chuàng)新引領(lǐng)新技術(shù)發(fā)展95后記96附表一 情景分析主要參數(shù)設(shè)置98中國石油消費總量達峰與控制方案研究 | 1附表二 “十三五”中國石油消費總量達峰與控制方案研究 | 1執(zhí)行摘要合理控制石油消費總量、推動石油消費盡早達峰，對于保障國家能源供應(yīng)和經(jīng)濟安全、應(yīng)對氣候變化、打贏藍天保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)、建設(shè)綠色低碳高質(zhì)量現(xiàn)代化經(jīng)濟體系具有重要意義。中國是世界第二大石油消費國和第

6、一大石油進口國，消費量和進口量都在持續(xù)增長，2018年中國石油消費總量6.28億噸，對外依存度超過70%，動蕩重組的國際石油市場，帶來更多的不確定性和挑戰(zhàn)，石油供應(yīng)安全是政治決策的重要考量之一。 石油消費總量控制的長遠目標是，中國與國際社會一起積極應(yīng)對氣候變化并努力實現(xiàn)本世紀下半葉“碳中和”的目標。 Photo by Yoal Desurmont on Unsplash“跨越石油時代”是中國的必由之路。世界主要發(fā)達國家歷經(jīng)長期石油高消費后，已經(jīng)在加速能源轉(zhuǎn)型，促使中國制定和實施“跨越石油時代”的戰(zhàn)略。目前，主要發(fā)達國家能源消費以石油為主，石油消費總量和人均石油消費都已達峰并明顯下降，國際大石油

7、公司從石油開發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)向供應(yīng)清潔和可再生能源。中國目前的人均石油消費較歐美發(fā)達國家要低；在資源、環(huán)境和氣候變化的約束下，中國需要探索以明顯低于發(fā)達國家油耗水平、至低于世界人均石油消費量的創(chuàng)新型“油控路徑”，支撐實現(xiàn)全面現(xiàn)代化目標，實現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展。 Photo by Yoal Desurmont on Unsplash中國石油開發(fā)利用在2015年的外部環(huán)境總成本為507 元。石油開發(fā)利用的開采、輸送、貯存、轉(zhuǎn)換、利用和產(chǎn)品制造的全過程會對外部環(huán)境產(chǎn)生影響和破壞。如果充分考慮石油開發(fā)利用過程中導(dǎo)致的空氣污染、水資源消耗、土壤污染和健康影響等因素，2015年中國石油開發(fā)利用的外部成本 達347元/噸，如果

8、考慮氣候變化影響，中國石油開發(fā)利用的 外部總成本達507元/噸。石油外部環(huán)境成本研究的目的是逐 步推動外部成本內(nèi)部化，為制定相關(guān)環(huán)境稅費、標準、法規(guī)和措施提供依據(jù)和參考，促進能效提高、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和減少污染物排放，以人為本保護公眾身體健康。在油控路徑下，中國2025年達到石油消費峰值；2050年實現(xiàn)“碳中和”的1.5C溫控目標。綜合國際比較和情景分析，體現(xiàn)能源革命和綠色低碳高質(zhì)量轉(zhuǎn)型的驅(qū)動，本報告在三2025年石油消費下降到6億噸；2050年石油消費控制在4.2億噸以下， 采用驅(qū)油增氣的二氧化碳捕捉、利用和蓄存技術(shù)（CCUS）， 以及發(fā)展森林碳匯，大幅度減少二氧化碳排放。石油消費總量控制的五大主要

9、減油途徑包括減量、高效、替代、結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和清潔利用。與基準情景相比，油控路徑下2050年石油消費減少3.5億噸。其中交通部門減油潛力占66.3%，化工部門占14.3%，其他部門占19.4%。五大控油 途徑按減油潛力排序依次為替代48%、高效20%、結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化16%、減量15%、清潔利用1%。替代和高效兩大途徑減油貢獻68%。石油消費結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生很大的變化。2050年與2017年相 比，交通油耗占比從57.7下降到33.3%，化工油耗從15.3% 上升到42.4%，其他部門從27.0%下降到24.3%。交通運輸部門在2023-2025年之間達到石油消費峰值。與基準情景相比，油控路徑下2050年交通運輸部

10、門石油消費降低約2.32億噸。交通運輸部門以替代、高效和清潔利用為方向，供需兩側(cè)發(fā)力。其中，汽車電氣化、燃料替代等因素的貢獻約64.7%；燃油經(jīng)濟性提高等高效措施貢獻17.1%；通過優(yōu)化客貨運輸結(jié)構(gòu)和城市出行結(jié)構(gòu)、優(yōu)化發(fā)展方式降低不合理運輸，以及加強城市規(guī)劃的宏觀減量和清潔利用貢獻18.2%?；げ块T石油消費在2035年左右達到峰值，并保持較長時間的平臺期。與基準情景相比，2050年化工用油降低約5000萬噸。其中，禁、限和提升塑料等再生資源回收利用水平等措施的減量化貢獻約38%；通過合理控制化工產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)能 規(guī)模、降低出口隱含石油消費的結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化貢獻約30%；通過 提升化工行業(yè)整體能效水平、供應(yīng)側(cè)

11、結(jié)構(gòu)性改革、延長產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈附加值、優(yōu)化用能結(jié)構(gòu)的高效化貢獻約20%；通過推行原 料多元化、增加進口化工原料和基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)品、發(fā)展非油化工， 以及煉油和化工部推廣清潔化生產(chǎn)貢獻12%。其他部門的石油消費量在2025-2030年之間達到峰值。與基準情景相比，其他部門2050年石油消費減少0.68億噸。其中，提高各種汽柴油發(fā)動機的動力設(shè)備能耗標準可貢獻%，淘汰落后和高污染的機械產(chǎn)品可貢獻23.5%，以電力和非油燃料替代、工程作業(yè)和生產(chǎn)程序優(yōu)化、采用清潔燃料等可貢獻47.1%。制定、細化和實施傳統(tǒng)燃油車退出的時間表是最有影響力的政策工具之一。許多省、市地方政府，例如海南省政府，已制定實施不同類型的傳統(tǒng)燃油車替代

12、和退出計劃，為全國“禁燃”政策的出臺奠定了堅實的基礎(chǔ)。汽車制造企業(yè)根據(jù)市場前景、技術(shù)研發(fā)進展和政策等制定傳統(tǒng)燃油車的停產(chǎn)和停售時間表， 以及發(fā)展新能源汽車的戰(zhàn)略方案。本報告提出傳統(tǒng)燃油車按時間表分車型、 分地區(qū)、 分階段地退出市場。首先在特大型和大型核心城市、空氣污染治理的重點區(qū)域以及新能源汽車試點城市中，對城市公交車、環(huán)衛(wèi)、物流、通勤車，以及出租車、網(wǎng)約車等車輛在2020-2025年左右實行電動化或采用其他類型的新能源車。2040年為私家車退出的截止時間。2045年全部普通和專用客車退出。2050 年之前重型運營貨車退出。除道路交通以外，在水運，近海海運和空運行業(yè)也要制定近、中、遠期的“禁燃

13、”規(guī)劃。以交通部門的“禁燃”、石化部門的“凈塑”和其他部門的 “定標”為主要抓手，扎實、有效、強力地推動石油消費總量控制工作。三大抓手是各種減油途徑中的重點。與基準情景相比，通過實施三大抓手2050年可實現(xiàn)減油2.05億噸，占總減58.6%。建議政府在“十四五”期間（2021-2025）制定、發(fā)布和實施“禁燃”、“凈塑”和“定標”的時間表和路線圖。三大 抓手具有減排減碳、保護生態(tài)和公眾身體健康的多重效益。石油消費總量控制的指標有三個，第一個是指導(dǎo)性的石油消費占比；第二個是將強制性的乘用車雙積分標準從部門上升為國家指標；第三個是將石油對外依存度列為預(yù)警指標?！笆奈濉蹦茉匆?guī)劃中，石油消費占比低于

14、20%，每五年計劃逐步地降低。乘用車能效標準每五年審核加嚴。2025年石油達峰時，對外依存度預(yù)警指標為73%，以后每年的對外 依存度逐步下降。如有突破，將在下一年采取有效措施，將石油消費對外依存度控制在預(yù)警指標之內(nèi)。4 | CHINA OIL CAP PROJECT以石油消費總量控制為中心的“跨越石油時代”的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略將推動經(jīng)濟增長。依靠市場化改革和體制創(chuàng)新，催生和哺育新的產(chǎn)業(yè)業(yè)態(tài)。本報告建議加快調(diào)整取消不合理石油補貼，建立反映真實外部成本的石油市場價格和稅費體系，完善和促進節(jié)約和替代石油的財稅政策。同時，制定燃油汽車退出路線圖和時間表，推動汽車技術(shù)革命；深化油氣體制、投資和管理等領(lǐng)域改革，推動

15、頁巖油氣開發(fā)革命；推動化工產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)逐漸向中高端發(fā)展；這些都將促進新產(chǎn)業(yè)出現(xiàn)和傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級，帶動經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。EXECUTIVE SUMMARYReasonablycappingoilconsumptionandachievingpeakoilasearlyaspossibleisof thefortoitsandclimatechange,win“theBattleforBlueSkies”,andbuildagreen,low-carbon,andhigh-qualitymodernChinaistheworlds2ndlargestoilconsumerand 1stlargestoil

16、importer,withitsoiluseandimportscontinuouslyexpandingoverthe 628ofoilinTheanditsoilimportwas70%intheoiltoputoilitsandthearetocombatclimatechangewithalong-termgoalofachievingcarbonneutralitybyof“Leaping the age of oil” is the clear path forward for China. After a long period of high oil consumption,

17、major developed countries have accelerated their energy transformation, providing the impetus for China to establish and implement a strategy for “l(fā)eaping over the age of oil.” Currently, major developed countries still rely on oil as a dominant energy source, but their total and per capita oil use

18、has already peaked and since declined significantly, while major international oil companies are also shifting towards clean and renewable energy. Chinese per capita oil use is relatively lower than that of the developed countries; under the constraints imposed by limited resources, the environment,

19、 and climate, China needs to explore an innovative path towards oil consumption that is significantly less than that of developed countries, and even lower than the worlds per capita oil consumption of 0.6 tons, thus supporting its goal of building a modern society, and achieving a leapfrog approach

20、 todevelopment.The total external cost of Chinas oil development and utilization was 507 RMB per metric ton of oil in 2015. Every aspect of oil development and utilization in Chinafrom extraction to transportation, storage, conversion, utilization Photo by David Martin on Unsplashand product manufac

21、turingcan produce negative or harmful effects on the environment. The external costs of oil development and use in China were 347 RMB per metric ton in 2015 considering impacts such as environmental pollution, water resource damage, soil pollution, health risks and greenhouse gas emissions. This fig

22、ure rises to 507 RMB per metric ton if climate impacts are also considered. The goal of the study on the environmental costs of oil is to help help facilitate the gradual internalization of such external costs and will provide a basis for the assessment of relevant environmental taxes and fees, stan

23、dards, regulations and measures. It will also help boost energy efficiency, foster technology innovation, reduce the emission of pollutants and protect peoples health. Photo by David Martin on UnsplashUnder the oil cap scenario pathway, Chinas oil consumption can peak by 2025 and basically meet the

24、carbon neutral requirements of the 1.5C temperature control target by 2050. The oil cap is proposed based on international comparative studies and scenario analysis, taking into account anenergyrevolutionandgreen,low-carbonandquality- oriented economic transition. Under this pathway,Chinasoil consum

25、ption is expected to peak before 2025. Under the vision of a “Beautiful China”, oil consumption would decrease to about 600 million metric tons by 2035. Oil consumption would be limited to within 420 million tons by 2050. With the commercialization of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) t

26、echnology and the expansion of forest carbon-sinks, carbon emissions will be dramaticallyreduced.The five major approaches for capping oil use include reducing demand; improving efficiency; replacing oil with alternative energy sources; optimizing industry structures and product portfolios; and enco

27、uraging clean use. By 2050, the oil cap scenario pathway would reduce oil consumption by 350 million metric tons compared to the baseline scenario. Of these reductions, the transportation sector would account for 66.3%, the chemical sector would account for 14.3%, and other sectors would account for

28、 19.4%. Oil reduction potential can be broken down according to the ftve major approaches, of which oil replacement accounts for 48%, efficiency improvements account for 20%, structural optimization for 16%, reducing demand accounts for 15%, and clean utilization accounts for 1%. Replacement and eff

29、iciency improvements are by far the most signiftcant contributor, accounting for 68% of oil reduction potential.Under this scenario, the oil consumption structure would experience significant changes. When breaking down Chinas oil consumption in 2017 find that the transportation sector by of The tra

30、nsportation sector is expected to reach peak oil consumption between 2020 and 2023. By 2050, oil consumption in the transportation sector will have decreased by about 232 million tons compared to the baseline scenario. The transportation sector should move in the direction of substitution, increasin

31、g efficiency, and clean utilization, making progress from both the supply and demand sides. Fuel substitution approaches, such as automobile electrification, will contribute 64.7% of the decrease, and efficiency measures suchasfueleconomyimprovementswillaccountforThestructural optimization of passen

32、ger and cargo transportation and of urban travel, unreasonable transportation reduction through optimized urban planning, and clean utilization will account for 18.2% of these reducations.Oil consumption in the petrochemical sector is expected to peak around 2035, followed by a long plateau. In 2050

33、, petrochemical sector oil consumption will be reduced by about 50 million tons compared with the baseline scenario. Oil reduction measures such as implementing prohibitions and limitations on plastics and increasing recycling rates for plastics will contribute around 38% of this reduction. Structur

34、al optimization approaches such as controlling the scale of production capacity in the petrochemical sector and reducing indirect oil consumption through optimizing petrochemical exports will contribute about 30% of this reduction. Increasing overall energy efficiency in the petrochemical sector, im

35、plementing supply-side structural reforms, extending the added value of the industrial chain and optimizing the energy consumption structure will contribute about 20%. By increasing imports of petrochemical raw materials or basic products, developing non-oil consuming chemical industries and promoti

36、ng cleaner production, the petrochemical sector will reduce oil consumption and contribute to another 12% of reductions.Oil consumption in other sectors is expected to peak between 2025 and 2035. Oil consumption in other sectors will have decreased by 68 million tons in 2050. Oil is mainly used in v

37、arious kinds of machinery, including in gasoline and diesel engines, domestic heating, and industrial lubricants. Of this reduction, improving efficiency standards for gasoline and diesel engines accounts for 29.4%, elimination of backward and highly polluting machinery accounts for 23.5%, replaceme

38、nt with electric and non-oil options, optimization of the engineering operation and production processes, and clean utilization accounts for 47.1%. There are various kinds of oil- consuming machinery in operation, causing serious pollution. It is therefore important to improve fuel efficiency and po

39、llution emission standards for gasoline and diesel engines and to implement electric heating substitution.A detailed and enforceable timetable for a fuel phase-out is one8 | CHINA OIL CAP PROJECTof the most influential policy tools available. Many provincial and municipal governments, for example Ha

40、inan Provincial Government, have designed and are carrying out a plan for replacing and phasing-out different types of traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, laying a solid fundation for the launch of a national scale ICE phase-out policy. Automobile manufacturing companies can formu

41、late timetables for the suspension and ban of traditional fuel vehicles, as well as develop new energy vehicle production and sales programs according to market strategy, technology R&D and the current policy environment. The report points out that traditional ICE vehicles should be phased out accor

42、ding to a timetable that specifies deadlines for different vehicle types, regions and phases. The ban will first be introduced to megacities, large core cities, cities in key air pollution regions and pilot NEV cities, where electriftcation and other types of new energy will be adopted around 2020-2

43、025 for all vehicles used for urban public transportation, sanitation, logistics, commuter service vehicles, taxis and ride hailing vehicles. The timetable also envisions replacing traditional ICE vehicles with NEVs for all government vehicles by 2030, for all private cars by 2040, for general and s

44、pecial-purpose passenger vehicles by 2045, and for heavy-duty trucks by 2050. In addition to road traffic, it is also necessary to formulate near, medium, and long-term fuel phase-out plans for water shipping and air operations.Chinas solid, effective and forceful efforts in promoting a cap on oil c

45、onsumption are supported by three pillarsthe ban of traditional petrol and diesel vehicles in the transportation sector, the restriction of plastic products in the petrochemical and the imposition of efficiency in other sectors. The oil reduction potential of these three is 205 million tons, account

46、ing for of the total. recommend that the publish and timetables for the ban of traditional petrol and diesel vehicles, for the restriction of plastic products, and for the imposition of stricter energy efficiency standards in other sectors during the 14th Plan period (2021-2025). The three pillars h

47、ave multiple benefits, including reducing carbon emissions, protectingtheandprotectingpublichealth.We recommend establishing three indicators for capping oil consumption. The first is a guiding target of the share of oilin total energy consumption. The second is to elevate the dual-credit for fuel e

48、fficiency and New Energy Vehicles from a sectoral level target to a national one. The third is to establish external oil dependence as an early During the Plan, the share of oil consumption should be less than 20%, with gradual reductions every ftve Energy efficiency and New Electric Vehicle targets

49、 for passenger cars should also be tightened every five years. The target for Chinas external dependenceonoilatpeakoilconsumptioninshouldbeat or and decline in the future. If the of dependence this the country should take effective actions to control external dependence to within the The development

50、 strategy for “Leaping Over the Age of Oil” with an oil consumption cap at its core will boost economic growth. Market-oriented reforms and institutional innovation will and nurture commercial activities. This recommends that the government speed up the adjustment and removal of unreasonable subsidi

51、es to build an oil market and tax that the true of oil use; and tax policies that oil and and formulate a roadmap for the phase-out of ICE vehicles to the and to reform of the oil and gas sector and mechanisms for managing investments to create a market and policy environment that the shale oil and

52、前言中國石油消費總量控制和政策研究項目（簡稱“油2018年1月正式啟動，由自然資源保護協(xié)會（NRDC）和能源基金會中國（EF China）作為協(xié)油控研究項目試圖回答一個問題：中國能否跨越石油時代？石油是全球能源消費中的第一大能源品類，占比33%左 右，全球?qū)κ偷囊蕾嚾匀粡妱?。在中國?018年石油消費 占比已經(jīng)達到18.9%，石油消費對外依存度高于70%，并且呈現(xiàn)逐年上升的趨勢，中國面臨著日益嚴峻的石油供應(yīng)安全挑戰(zhàn)。綜合報告分析和對比了中國與主要發(fā)達國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、能源與石油消費，以及政策影響等因素，探索中國石油開發(fā)利用的新路徑。環(huán)境、氣候變化、公眾身體健康、資源稟賦、石油供應(yīng)安全等因素對中

53、國石油開發(fā)利用的約束愈來愈強，加之中國石油開發(fā)利用造成的外部成本很高，促使中國需要加速能源轉(zhuǎn)型。盡早實現(xiàn)石油消費達峰，是跨越石油時代的第一個里程碑。一個高效、清潔、低碳的石油消費模式，對中國社會、經(jīng)濟高質(zhì)量經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和對人民生活幸福感的增強，無疑是一個必備條件。我們充分認識到“跨越石油時代”的挑戰(zhàn)性、復(fù)雜性和長期性。本報告研究和提出了石油消費總量控制的路徑和具體方案。中國的石油消費在2014年后進入一個平穩(wěn)中速的增長 期，暗示一個變革的轉(zhuǎn)折點即將到來。本報告提出中國石油消費在2025年達峰，峰值7.2億噸左右。在中國煤炭消費已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)下降的情況下，促進石油消費盡早達峰可以加速中國二氧化碳排放峰

54、值提前到來。中國經(jīng)濟和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的不斷優(yōu)化升級、技術(shù)飛速發(fā)展、綠色金融不斷完善、市場競爭優(yōu)勝劣汰和企業(yè)不斷創(chuàng)新，都為中國“跨越石油時代”提供了堅實的基礎(chǔ)。我們認為，本報告不是試圖去準確地“預(yù)測”未來的石油消費需求，也沒有提供“靈丹妙藥”。我們所做的，是分析、研判和把握未來石油消費的轉(zhuǎn)折點、變化趨勢和方向，提出一些新的觀點、創(chuàng)新模式和有效措施，以及建議強有力的政策選項，推動和實現(xiàn)這些變化?！翱缭绞蜁r代”的思路和實施效果，如能助力中國的能源轉(zhuǎn)型，我們將不勝榮幸。我們相信，中國“跨越石油時代”的實踐可以為世界提供一個新的視角。全球的能源消費正處于石油時代，對石油資源潛力的限度、國際石油貿(mào)易的特殊性和

55、脆弱性、國家之間石油消費的不平衡，以及石油開發(fā)消費對環(huán)境和氣候變化的影響和危害等都引起人們的焦慮。“跨越石油時代”努力尋找一個解答方案，使主要石油消費國家能夠擺脫對石油的依賴，后起的發(fā)展中國家也可以避免高昂的石油基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資，高效地利用石油資源來提高現(xiàn)代化生活質(zhì)量水平。同樣重要的是，可以顯著減緩溫室氣體排放，保護人類賴以生存的環(huán)境。1中國石油消費達峰與 石油是現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的“血液”，是事關(guān)國計 民生的戰(zhàn)略性資源，同時也是導(dǎo)致環(huán)境污染、生態(tài)破壞和二氧化碳排放的重要來源。在中國全面建設(shè)生態(tài)文明、加快經(jīng)濟高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的背景下，推動石油消費盡早達峰，控制石油消費總量過快增長，對于打贏藍天保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)、積極

56、應(yīng)對氣候變化、保障國家能源和經(jīng)濟一、中國是世界石油消費總量和進口大國2018年，中國生產(chǎn)原油1.89億噸，進口原油4.62億噸， 進口成品油3348萬噸1。中國石油消費總量約6.28億噸，僅次 于美國居世界第二位，占全球石油消費總量的13.4%，占中國 一次能源消費總量的18.9%。2014-2018年，中國一次能源消費增速明顯放緩，年均增 速不超過2.2%，但石油消費仍快速增長，年均增速達4.7%。 與1990-2013年期間石油消費增速的大起大落和較高的年均增 速6.3%相比，石油消費增速進入平穩(wěn)期2，如圖1.1所示。自1993年中國成為石油凈進口國之后，石油進口量持續(xù) 快速攀升。2018

57、年中國進口依存度上升到70%，是世界石油進 口第一大國3。2008-2018年十年間，全球石油消費總量增加了5.2億噸，其中49%的消費量增加來自中國，到2030年，預(yù)計 中國仍將消費全世界石油增量的一半左右4。中國已經(jīng)成為驅(qū)動全球石油消費增長的主要動力，成為重塑全球石油市場格局的重要角色，但同時，也正面臨著石油供應(yīng)安全的挑戰(zhàn)。圖1.2顯示2017年石油從開發(fā)、進出口、運輸、加工轉(zhuǎn)換 到終端利用的各個環(huán)節(jié)的流動。油流圖揭示各個部門對不同油品的消費量，估算其占比和終端利用效率。通過石油消費圖 1.1：中國石油消費總量與增速（1980-2018）70,00020.060,000石油消耗量，萬噸50

58、,000石油消耗量，萬噸30,00020,00010,00015.0石油消費總量石油消費增速增速，%10.0石油消費總量石油消費增速增速，%5.000-5.01980198219841986198819901992199419961998 2002200420062008201020122014 2016 2018資料來源：中國統(tǒng)計摘要2019 ，國家統(tǒng)計局編，中國統(tǒng)計出版社 2019 年 5 月2018年國民經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展統(tǒng)計年報，國家統(tǒng)計局，2019年2月28日中國統(tǒng)計摘要2019，國家統(tǒng)計局編，中國統(tǒng)計出版社，2019年5月中國統(tǒng)計年鑒2019，國家統(tǒng)計局，中國統(tǒng)計出版社，2019年9月

59、BP世界能源統(tǒng)計年鑒2019，BP，2019年6月/第68版圖 1.2：中國石油生產(chǎn)消費流向圖（2017年）原油汽煤油柴燃料油其他石油制品各類石油制品原油及石油制品損失一次能源生產(chǎn)量境內(nèi)加油量單位：10tce原油：1,273.2一次能源生產(chǎn)量境內(nèi)加油量27,358.6進口量原油煉油進口量原油煉油境外加油量原油：1,546.9境外加油量（增）出口庫存資料來源：中國2017年能流圖和油流圖，胡秀蓮、劉嘉， 中國石油消費總量控制和政策研究項目，2019年6月庫存原油：3,450.4原油：8,879.1損失：2,315.1 10tce加工轉(zhuǎn)換和運輸損失加工轉(zhuǎn)換和運輸損失流向圖也可以看出石油在各個環(huán)節(jié)上

60、的損失及其減少損失的潛力。通過改進各個部門的耗油效率，可以提高整體石油消費系統(tǒng)效率的水平。石油消費主要包括燃料和原料兩大用途?；谟土鲌D的石油消費各部門構(gòu)成如圖1.3所示，2017年中國石油消費5.89 億噸，交通部門占石油消費總量的57.7%，化工（工業(yè)原料） 占15.3%，建筑業(yè)、農(nóng)業(yè)、其他工業(yè)部門、生活消費、批發(fā)零 售分別占5.2%、1.1%、12.1%、6.9%、0.4%，其他占1.3%。原油：521.0合計：原油：521.0合計：9,946 汽油煤油：18.7 柴油：637.3燃料油：453.1其他石油制品：8,289.0汽油汽油：18,267.6煤油煤油：4,894.1柴油柴油：2