會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)1CHMoneyInterestRatesandExchangerates國際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)實(shí)用Slide14-2Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.IntroductionMoneyDefined:ABriefReviewTheDemandforMoneybyIndividualsAggregateMoneyDemandTheEquilibriumInterestRate:TheInteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandChapterOrganization第1頁/共42頁Slide14-3Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheMoneySupplyandtheExchangeRateintheShortRunMoney,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRunInflationandExchangeRateDynamicsSummaryChapterOrganization第2頁/共42頁Slide14-4Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.IntroductionFactorsthataffectacountry’smoneysupplyordemandareamongthemostpowerfuldeterminantsofitscurrency’sexchangerateagainstforeigncurrencies.Thischaptercombinestheforeign-exchangemarketwiththemoneymarkettodeterminetheexchangerateintheshortrun.Itanalyzesthelong-termeffectsofmonetarychangesonoutputpricesandexpectedfutureexchangerates.第3頁/共42頁Slide14-5Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.MoneyDefined:ABriefReviewMoneyasaMediumofExchangeAgenerallyacceptedmeansofpaymentMoneyasaUnitofAccountAwidelyrecognizedmeasureofvalueMoneyasaStoreofValueAtransferofpurchasingpowerfromthepresentintothefuture第4頁/共42頁Slide14-6Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.WhatIsMoney?Assetswidelyusedandacceptedasameansofpayment.Moneyisveryliquid,butpayslittleornoreturn.Allotherassetsarelessliquidbutpayhigherreturn.MoneySupply(Ms)Ms=Currency+CheckableDepositsMoneyDefined:ABriefReview第5頁/共42頁Slide14-7Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.HowtheMoneySupplyIsDeterminedAneconomy’smoneysupplyiscontrolledbyitscentralbank.Thecentralbank:DirectlyregulatestheamountofcurrencyinexistenceIndirectlycontrolstheamountofcheckingdepositsissuedbyprivatebanks

MoneyDefined:ABriefReview第6頁/共42頁Slide14-8Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Threefactorsinfluencemoneydemand:ExpectedreturnRiskLiquidityExpectedReturnTheinterestratemeasurestheopportunitycostofholdingmoneyratherthaninterest-bearingbonds.Ariseintheinterestrateraisesthecostofholdingmoneyandcausesmoneydemandtofall.TheDemandfor

MoneybyIndividuals第7頁/共42頁Slide14-9Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.RiskHoldingmoneyisrisky.Anunexpectedincreaseinthepricesofgoodsandservicescouldreducethevalueofmoneyintermsofthecommoditiesconsumed.Changesintheriskofholdingmoneyneednotcauseindividualstoreducetheirdemandformoney.Anychangeintheriskinessofmoneycausesanequalchangeintheriskinessofbonds.TheDemandfor

MoneybyIndividuals第8頁/共42頁Slide14-10Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.LiquidityThemainbenefitofholdingmoneycomesfromitsliquidity.Householdsandfirmsholdmoneybecauseitistheeasiestwayoffinancingtheireverydaypurchases.Ariseintheaveragevalueoftransactionscarriedoutbyahouseholdorfirmcausesitsdemandformoneytorise.TheDemandfor

MoneybyIndividuals第9頁/共42頁Slide14-11Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.AggregateMoneyDemandAggregatemoneydemandThetotaldemandformoneybyallhouseholdsandfirmsintheeconomy.Itisdeterminedbythreemainfactors:InterestrateItreducesthedemandformoney.PricelevelItraisesthedemandformoney.RealnationalincomeItraisesthedemandformoney.第10頁/共42頁Slide14-12Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Theaggregatedemandformoneycanbeexpressedby:

Md=P

x

L(R,Y)(14-1)where: P

isthepricelevel Y

is

realnationalincome L(R,Y)istheaggregaterealmoneydemandEquation(14-1)canalsobewrittenas:

Md/P=L(R,Y) (14-2)AggregateMoneyDemand第11頁/共42頁Slide14-13Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-1:AggregateRealMoneyDemandandtheInterestRateL(R,Y)Interestrate,RAggregaterealmoneydemandAggregateMoneyDemand第12頁/共42頁Slide14-14Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-2:EffectontheAggregateRealMoneyDemandScheduleof aRiseinRealIncomeL(R,Y2)IncreaseinrealincomeL(R,Y1)Interestrate,RAggregaterealmoneydemandAggregateMoneyDemand第13頁/共42頁Slide14-15Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.EquilibriumintheMoneyMarketTheconditionforequilibriuminthemoneymarketis: Ms=Md(14-3)Themoneymarketequilibriumconditioncanbeexpressedintermsofaggregaterealmoneydemandas: Ms/P=L(R,Y)(14-4)

TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第14頁/共42頁Slide14-16Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-3:DeterminationoftheEquilibriumInterestRateAggregaterealmoneydemand,L(R,Y)Interestrate,RRealmoneyholdingsRealmoneysupplyMS

P(=Q1)R2Q22R11R3Q33第15頁/共42頁Slide14-17Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.InterestRatesandtheMoneySupplyAnincrease(fall)inthemoneysupplylowers(raises)theinterestrate,giventhepricelevelandoutput.TheeffectofincreasingthemoneysupplyatagivenpricelevelisillustratedinFigure14-4.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第16頁/共42頁Slide14-18Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.M2

PR22M1

PRealmoneysupplyRealmoneysupplyincreaseTheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-4:EffectofanIncreaseintheMoneySupplyontheInterest RateL(R,Y1)R11Interestrate,RRealmoneyholdings第17頁/共42頁Slide14-19Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.OutputandtheInterestRateAnincrease(fall)inrealoutputraises(lowers)theinterestrate,giventhepricelevelandthemoneysupply.Figure14-5showstheeffectontheinterestrateofariseinthelevelofoutput,giventhemoneysupplyandthepricelevel.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第18頁/共42頁Slide14-20Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Q21'TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-5:EffectontheInterestRateofaRiseinRealIncomeL(R,Y1)L(R,Y2)IncreaseinrealincomeRealmoneysupplyMS

P(=Q1)R22R11Interestrate,RRealmoneyholdings第19頁/共42頁Slide14-21Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheMoneySupplyandtheExchangeRateintheShortRunShortrunanalysisThepricelevelandtherealoutputaregiven.LongrunanalysisThepricelevelisperfectlyflexibleandalwaysadjustedimmediatelytopreservefullemployment.第20頁/共42頁Slide14-22Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.LinkingMoney,theInterestRate,andtheExchangeRateTheU.S.moneymarketdeterminesthedollarinterestrate,whichinturnaffectstheexchangeratethatmaintainstheinterestparity.Figure14-6linkstheU.S.moneymarket(bottom)andtheforeignexchangemarket(top).TheMoneySupplyandtheExchangeRateintheShortRun第21頁/共42頁Slide14-23Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-6:SimultaneousEquilibriumintheU.S.MoneyMarket andtheForeign-ExchangeMarketReturnondollardepositsExpectedreturnoneurodepositsL(R$,YUS)U.S.realmoneyholdingsRatesofreturn(indollarterms)Dollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€0(increasing)ForeignexchangemarketMoneymarketE1$/€1'R1$1U.S.realmoneysupplyMSUSPUS第22頁/共42頁Slide14-24Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-7:Money-Market/ExchangeRateLinkagesEuropeanmoneymarketUnitedStatesmoneymarketEuropeEuropeanSystemofCentralBanksUnitedStatesFederalReserveSystem(UnitedStatesmoneysupply)MSUSMSE(Europeanmoneysupply)R$(Dollarinterestrate)R€(Eurointerestrate)ForeignexchangemarketE$/€(Dollar/Euroexchangerate)第23頁/共42頁Slide14-25Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.U.S.MoneySupplyandtheDollar/EuroExchangeRateWhathappenswhentheFederalReservechangestheU.S.moneysupply?Anincrease(decrease)inacountry’smoneysupplycausesitscurrencytodepreciate(appreciate)intheforeignexchangemarket.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第24頁/共42頁Slide14-26Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.IncreaseinU.S.realmoneysupplyExpectedreturnoneurodepositsTheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandFigure14-8:EffectontheDollar/EuroExchangeRateandDollar InterestRateofanIncreaseintheU.S.MoneySupplyE2$/€2'U.S.realmoneyholdingsRatesofreturn(indollarterms)Dollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€0ReturnondollardepositsL(R$,YUS)E1$/€1'R1$1M1USPUSR2$2M2USPUS第25頁/共42頁Slide14-27Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Europe’sMoneySupplyandtheDollar/EuroExchangeRateAnincreaseinEurope’smoneysupplycausesadepreciationoftheeuro(i.e.,appreciationofthedollar).AreductioninEurope’smoneysupplycausesanappreciationoftheeuro(i.e.,adepreciationofthedollar).ThechangeintheEuropeanmoneysupplydoesnotdisturbtheU.S.moneymarketequilibrium.TheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemand第26頁/共42頁Slide14-28Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-9:EffectofanIncreaseintheEuropeanMoneySupply ontheDollar/EuroExchangeRateIncreaseinEuropeanmoneysupplyU.S.realmoneyholdingsRatesofreturn(indollarterms)Dollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€0ExpectedeuroreturnL(R$,YUS)U.S.realmoneysupplyMSUSPUSR1$1E1$/€1'DollarreturnTheEquilibriumInterestRate:The

InteractionofMoneySupplyandDemandE2$/€2'第27頁/共42頁Slide14-29Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRunLong-runequilibriumPricesareperfectlyflexibleandalwaysadjustedimmediatelytopreservefullemployment.MoneyandMoneyPricesThemoneymarketequilibrium(Equation14-4)canberearrangedtogivethelong-runequilibriumpricelevel:

P=Ms/L(R,Y)(14-5)Anincreaseinacountry’smoneysupplycausesaproportionalincreaseinitspricelevel.

第28頁/共42頁Slide14-30Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.TheLong-RunEffectsofMoneySupplyChangesAchangeinthesupplyofmoneyhasnoeffectonthelong-runvaluesoftheinterestrateorrealoutput.Apermanentincreaseinthemoneysupplycausesaproportionalincreaseinthepricelevel’slong-runvalue.Thispredictionisbasedonthemoneymarketequilibriumcondition:Ms/P=LorP=Ms/L.ThisconditionimpliesthatP/P=Ms/Ms-L/L.Theinflationrateequalsthemonetarygrowthratelessthegrowthrateformoneydemand.Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRun第29頁/共42頁Slide14-31Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.EmpiricalEvidenceonMoneySuppliesandPriceLevelsInacross-sectionofcountries,long-termchangesinmoneysuppliesandpricelevelsshowaclearpositivecorrelation.Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRun第30頁/共42頁Slide14-32Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-10:MonetaryGrowthandPrice-LevelChangeintheSeven MainIndustrialCountries,1973-1997Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRun第31頁/共42頁Slide14-33Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.MoneyandtheExchangeRateintheLongRunApermanentincrease(decrease)inacountry’smoneysupplycausesaproportionallong-rundepreciation(appreciation)ofitscurrencyagainstforeigncurrencies.Money,thePriceLevel,andtheExchangeRateintheLongRun第32頁/共42頁Slide14-34Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Inflationand

ExchangeRateDynamicsInflationAsituationwhereaneconomy’spricelevelrises.DeflationAsituationwhereaneconomy’spricelevelfalls.Short-RunPriceRigidityversusLong-RunPriceFlexibilityTheshort-run“stickiness”ofpricelevelsisillustratedinFigure14-11.第33頁/共42頁Slide14-35Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-11:Month-to-MonthVariabilityoftheDollar/DMExchange RateandoftheU.S./GermanPrice-LevelRatio,1974-2001Inflationand

ExchangeRateDynamics第34頁/共42頁Slide14-36Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Achangeinthemoneysupplycreatesdemandandcostpressuresthatleadtofutureincreasesinthepricelevelfromthreemainsources:ExcessdemandforoutputandlaborInflationaryexpectationsRawmaterialspricesInflationand

ExchangeRateDynamics第35頁/共42頁Slide14-37Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.PermanentMoneySupplyChangesandtheExchangeRateHowdoesthedollar/euroexchangerateadjusttoapermanentincreaseintheU.S.moneysupply?Figure14-12showsboththeshort-runandlong-runeffectsoftheincreaseintheU.S.moneysupply.Inflationand

ExchangeRateDynamics第36頁/共42頁Slide14-38Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-12:EffectsofanIncreaseintheU.S.MoneySupplyDollarreturnDollarreturnM1USP1USM2USP1USU.S.realmoneysupplyM2USP2USM2USP1USDollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€Ratesofreturn(indollarterms)U.S.realmoneyholdings0(a)Short-runeffects0(b)Adjustmenttolong-runequilibriumDollar/euroexchangeRate,E$/€U.S.realmoneyholdingsE2$/€2'E3$/€4'R1$4R2$2R1$1Inflationand

ExchangeRateDynamics3'2'E2$/€ExpectedeuroreturnExpectedeuroreturnL(R$,YUS)R2$2L(R$,YUS)E1$/€1'第37頁/共42頁Slide14-39Copyright?2003PearsonEducation,Inc.Figure14-13:TimePathsofU.S.EconomicVariablesAfteraPermanent IncreaseintheU.S