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2017年普通高等學(xué)校招生全國統(tǒng)一考試(江蘇卷)
英語試題
注意事項
考生在答題前請認真閱讀本注意事項及各題答題要求。
1.本試卷共14頁,包含選擇題(第1題~第70題,共70題)、非選擇題(第71題~第81
題,共11題)兩部分。本卷滿分為120分,考試時間為120分鐘。考試結(jié)束后,請將
本試卷和答題卡一并交回。
2.答題前,請務(wù)必將自己的姓名、準考證號用毫米黑色墨水的簽字筆填寫在試卷及答題
卡的規(guī)定位置上。
3.請認真核對監(jiān)考員在答題卡上所粘貼的條形碼上的姓名、準考證號與本人是否相符。
4.作答選擇題,必須用2B鉛筆將答題卡上對應(yīng)選項的方框涂滿、涂黑;如需改動,請用
橡皮擦干凈后,再選涂其他答案。作答非選擇題,必須用毫米黑色墨水的簽字筆在答
題卡上的指定位置作答,在其他位置作答一律無效。
第一部分聽力(共兩節(jié),滿分20分)
做題時,先將答案標在試卷上,錄音內(nèi)容結(jié)束后,你將有兩分鐘的時間將試卷上的答案
轉(zhuǎn)涂到答題卡上。
第一節(jié)(共5小題;每小題1分,滿分5分)
聽下面5段對話。每段對話后有一個小題,從題中所給的A、B、C三個選項中選出最
佳選項。聽完每段對話后,你都有10秒鐘的時間來回答有關(guān)小題和閱讀下一小題。每段對
話僅讀一遍。
例:Howmuchistheshirt?
A.€B.€C.€
答案是Co
'samusing.B.It'sexciting.C.It/sdisappointing.
2.HowwillSusanspendmostofhertimeinFrance?
A.Travelingaround.
B.Studyingataschool.
C.Lookingafterheraunt.
3.Whatarethespeakerstalkingabout?
A.Goingout.
B.Orderingdrinks.
C.Preparingforaparty.
4.Wherearethespeakers?
A.Inaclassroom.B.Inalibrary.C.Inabookstore.
5.Whatisthemangoingtodo?
A.GoontheInternet.B.Makeaphonecall.C.Takeatraintrip.
第二節(jié)(共15小題;每小題1分,滿分15分)
聽下面5段對話或獨白.每段對話或獨白后有幾個小題,從題中所給的A、B、C三個
選項中選出最佳選項。聽每段對話或獨白前,你將有時間閱讀各個小題,每小題5秒鐘;聽
完后,各小題將給出5秒鐘的作答時間。每段對話或獨白讀兩遍。
聽第6段材料,回答第6、7題。
6.Whatisthewomanlookingfor?
A.Aninformationoffice.B.Apolicestation.C.Ashoerepairshop.
7.WhatistheTownGuideaccordingtotheman?
A.Abrochure.B.Anewspaper.C.Amap.
聽第7段材料,回答第8、9題。
8.Whatdoesthemansayabouttherestaurant?
A.It'sthebiggestonearound.B.Itoffersmanytastydishes.C.It'sfamousforits
seafood.
9.Whatwillthewomanprobablyorder?
A.Friedfish.B.Roastchicken.C.Beefsteak.
聽第8段材料,回答第10至12題。
10.WherewillMr.Whitebeat11o'clock?
A.Attheoffice.B.Attheairport.C.Attherestaurant.
11.WhatwillMr.Whiteprobablydoatoneintheafternoon?
A.Receiveaguest.B.Haveameeting.C.Readareport.
12.WhenwillMissWilsonseeMr.White?
A.Atlunchtime.B.Lateintheafternoon.C.Thenextmorning.
聽第9段材料,回答第13至16題。
13.WhyisBillgoingtoGermany?
A.Toworkonaproject.B.TostudyGerman,C.Tostartanew
company.
14.WhatdidthewomandislikeaboutGermany?
A.Theweather.B.Thefood.C.Theschools.
15.WhatdoesBillhopetodoabouthisfamily?
A.BringthemtoGermany.B.LeavetheminEngland,C.Visittheminafew
months.
16.Whatistheprobablerelationshipbetweenthespeakers?
A.Fellow-travelers.B.Colleagues.C.Classmates.
聽第10段材料,回答第17至20題。
17.WhendiditrainlasttimeinJuarez?
A.Threedaysago.B.Amonthago.C.Ayearago.
18.WhatseasonisitnowinJuarez?
A.Spring.B.SummerC.Autumn.
19.Whataretheelderlyadvisedtodo?
A.Takeawalkintheafternoon.B.Keeptheirhomescool.C.Drinkplentyof
water.
20.Whatisthespeakerdoing?
A.Hostingaradioprogram.B.Conductingaseminar.C.Forecastingtheweather.
第二部分:英語知識運用(共兩節(jié),滿分35分)
第一節(jié):單項填空(共15小題;每小題1分,滿分15分)
請認真閱讀下面各題,從題中所給的A、B、C、D四個選項中,選出最佳選項,并在答
題卡將該項涂黑。
例:Itisgenerallyconsideredunwisetogiveachildheorshewants.
A.howeverB.whateverC.whicheverD.whenever
答案是B。
21.ManyChinesebrands,theirreputationsovercenturies,arefacingnew
challengesfromthemodernmarket.
A.havingdevelopedB.beingdevelopedC.developedD.
developing
22.notforthesupportoftheteachers,thestudentcouldnotovercomeher
difficulty.
A.ItwereB.WereitC.ItwasD.Was
it
23.LocatedtheBeltmeetstheRoad,JiangsuwillcontributemoretotheBeltand
Roadconstruction.
A.whyB.whenC.whichD.
where
24.ThepublicationofGreatExpectations,whichbothwidelyreviewedandhighly
praised,strengthenedDickens*statusasaleadingnovelist.
A.isB.areC.wasD.were
25.WorkingwiththemedicalteaminAfricahasthebestinherasadoctor.
A.heldoutB.broughtoutC.pickedoutD.given
out
26.Wechoosethishotelbecausethepriceforanighthereisdownto$20,halfof
itusedtocharge.
A.thatB.whichC.whatD.how
27.Hehurriedhome,neveroncelookingbacktoseeifhe.
A.wasbeingfollowedB.wasfollowing
C.hadbeenfollowedD.followed
28.In1963theUNsetuptheWorldFoodProgramme,oneofpurposesisto
relieveworldwidestarvation.
A.whichB.itsC.whoseD.whom
29.OnlyfiveyearsafterSteveJobs'death,smart-phonesdefeatedPCsinsales.
A.controversialB.contradictoryC.confidentialD.
conventional
30.Aquickreviewofsuccessesandfailuresattheendofyearwillhelpyouryear
ahead.
A.shapeB.switchC.stretchD.sharpen
31.He'sbeeninformedthatheforthescholarshipbecauseofhisacademic
background.
A.hasn'tqualifiedB.hadn'tqualified
C.doesn'tqualifyD.wasn'tqualifying
32.Determiningwhereweareoursurroundingsremainsanessentialskillforour
survival.
A.incontrasttoB.indefenseof
C.infaceofD.inrelationto
33.-WhatdoesthestuffonyourT-shirtmean?
—It'snothing.Justsomething.
C.undermynoseD.beyondmywildestdreams
34.Thedisappearanceofdinosaursisnotnecessarilycausedbyastronomicalincidents.But
explanationsarehardtofind.
A.alternativeB.aggressiveC.ambiguousD.apparent
35.—GoingtowatchtheWomen'sVolleyballMatchonWednesday?
一!Willyougowithme?
A.YouthereB.Youbet
C.YougotmeD.Youknowbetter
第二節(jié):完形填空(共20小題;每小題1分,滿分20分)
請認真閱讀下面短文,從短文后各題所給的A、B、C、D四個選項中,選出最佳選項,
并在答題卡上將該項涂黑。
ForalongtimeGabrieldidn'twanttobeinvolvedinmusicatall.Inhisfirstyearsofhigh
school,Gabrielwouldlookpityinglyatthemusicstudents,36acrossthecampuswiththeir
heavyinstrumentcases,37atschoolforpracticehours38anyoneelsehadtobethere.
Hesworetohimselfto39music,ashehatedgettingtoschoolextraearly.
40,oneday,inthemusicclassthatwas41ofhisschool'sstandardcurriculum,he
wasplayingidly(隨意土也)onthepianoandfoundit42topickouttunes.Withasinking
feeling,herealizedthatheactually43doingit.Hetriedtohidehis44pleasurefromthe
musicteacher,whohad45overtolisten.Hemightnothavedonethisparticularlywell,46
theteachertoldGabrielthathehadagood47andsuggestedthatGabrielgointothemusic
store-roomtoseeifanyoftheinstrumentsthere48him.Therehedecidedtogivethe
cello(大提琴)a49.Whenhebeganpracticing,hetookitvery50.Buthequicklyfound
thathelovedplayingthisinstrument,andwas51topracticingitsothatwithinacoupleof
monthshewasplayingreasonablywell.
This52,ofcourse,thathearrivedatschoolearlyinthemorning,53hisheavy
instrumentcaseacrossthecampustothe54_looksofthenon-musicianshehadleft_55.
36.A.travellingB.marchingC.pacingD.
struggling
37.A.risingupB.comingupC.drivingupD.
turningup
38.A.beforeB.afterC.untilD.since
39.A.betrayB.acceptC.avoidD.
appreciate
40.A.ThereforeB.HoweverC.ThusD.
Moreover
41.A.partB.natureC.basisD.spirit
42.A.complicatedB.safeC.confusingD.easy
43.A.missedB.dislikedC.enjoyedD.
denied
44.A.transparentB.obviousC.falseD.
similar
45.A.runB.joggedC.jumpedD.wandered
46.A.becauseB.butC.thoughD.so
47.A.earB.tasteC.heartD.voice
48.A.occurredtoB.tooktoC.appealedtoD.held
to
49.A.changeB.chanceC.missionD.
function
50.A.seriouslyB.proudlyC.casuallyD.
naturally
51.A.committedB.usedC.limitedD.admitted
52.A.provedB.showedC.stressedD.
meant
53.A.pushingB.draggingC.liftingD.
rushing
54.A.admiringB.pityingC.annoyingD.teasing
55.A.overB.asideC.behindD.out
第三部分:閱讀理解(共15小題;每小題2分,滿分30分)
請認真閱讀下列短文,從短文后各題所給的A、B、C、D四個選項中,選出最佳選項,
并在答題卡上將該項涂黑。
A
CHRONOLOGICA
-----TheUnbelievableYearsthatDefinedHistory
DIDYOUKNOW...
?In105ADpaperwasinventedinChina?
?WhenColumbusdiscoveredtheNewWorld?
TheBritishMuseumopenedin1759?
CHRONOLOGICAisafascinatingjourneythroughtime,fromthefoundationofRometothe
creationoftheInternet.Alongthewayaretalesofkingsandqueens,
hotairballoons...andmonkeysinspace.
Travelthrough100ofthemostunbelievableyearsinworldhistoryand
learnwhybeingaRomanEmperorwasn'talwaysasgoodasitsounds,
howtheHundredYears'Wardidn'tactuallylastfor100yearsandwhy
SpencerPercevalholdsaratherunfortunaterecord.
CHRONOLOGICAisaninformativeandentertainingtourintohistory,
beautifullyillustratedandfullofunbelievablefacts.While
CHRONOLOGICAtellsthestoriesoffamouspeopleinhistorysuchas
ThomasEdisonandAlexandertheGreat,thisbookalsogivesanaccount
ofthelivesoflesser-knownindividuals
includingtheexplorerMungoParkand
sculptorGutzonBorglum.
Thiscompletebutbriefhistoricalcollectionis
certaintoentertainreadersyoungandold,
andguaranteedtopresenteventhebiggest
historyloverwithsomethingnew!
56.WhatisCHRONOLOGICAaccordingtothenext?
A.Abiography.B.Atravelguide.
C.Ahistorybook.D.Asciencefiction.
57.HowdoesthewriterrecommendCHRONOLOGICAtoreaders?
A.Bygivingdetailsofitscollection.B.Byintroducingsomeofitscontents.
C.Bytellingstoriesatthebeginning.D.Bycomparingitwithotherbooks.
B
Beforebirth,babiescantellthedifferencebetweenloudsounds
andvoices.Theycanevendistinguishtheirmother'svoicefromthatof
afemalestranger.Butwhenitcomestoembryoniclearning(胎教),birds
couldruletheroost.AsrecentlyreportedinTheAuk:
OrnithologicalAdvances,somemotherbirdsmayteachtheiryoungto
singevenbeforetheyhatch(孵化).New-bornchickscanthenimitateRed-backedfairywrens(ftM),whichliveinnorthernand
easternAustralia,laythreeorfoureegsatatime.
theirmom'scallwithinafewdaysofenteringtheworld.
Thiseducationalmethodwasfirstobservedin2012bySoniaKleindorfei;abiologistat
FlindersUniversityinSouthAustralia,andhercolleagues.FemaleAustraliansuperbfairywrens
werefoundtorepeatonesoundoverandoveragainwhilehatchingtheireggs.Whentheeggs
werehatched,thebabybirdsmadethesimilarchirptotheirmothers——asoundthatservedas
theirregular"feedme!"call.
Tofindoutifthespecialqualitywasmorewidespreadinbirds,theresearcherssoughtthe
red-backedfairywren,anotherspeciesofAustraliansongbird.Firsttheycollectedsounddata
from67nestsinfoursitesinQueenslandbeforeandafterhatching.Thentheyidentifiedbegging
callsbyanalyzingtheorderandnumberofnotes.Acomputeranalysisblindlycomparedcalls
producedbymothersandchicks,rankingthembysimilarity.
Itturnsoutthatbabyred-backedfairywrensalsoemergechirpingliketheirmoms.Andthe
morefrequentlymothershadcalledtotheireggs,themoresimilarwerethebabies'beggingcalls.
Inaddition,theteamsetupaseparateexperimentthatsuggestedthatthebabybirdsthatmost
closelyimitatedtheirmom'svoicewererewardedwiththemostfood.
Thisobservationhintsthateffectiveembryoniclearningcouldsignalneurological(神經(jīng)系統(tǒng)
的)strengthsofchildrentoparents.Anevolutionaryinferencecanthenbedrawn."Asaparent,
doyouinvestinqualitychildren,ordoyouinvestinchildrenthatareinneed?"Kleindorferasks.
"Ourresultssuggestthattheymightbegoingforquality."
58.TheunderlinedphraseinParagraph1means"
59.WhatareKleindorfer'sfindingsbasedon?
A.Similaritiesbetweenthecallsofmomsandchicks.
B.TheobservationoffairywrensacrossAustralia.
C.ThedatacollectedfromQueensland'slocals.
D.Controlledexperimentsonwrensandotherbirds.
60.Embryoniclearninghelpsmotherbirdstoidentifythebabybirdswhich.
A.canreceivequalitysignalsB.areinneedoftraining
C.fittheenvironmentbetterD.maketheloudestcall
C
Anewcommoditybringsaboutahighlyprofitable,fast-growingindustry,urgingantitrust(反
壟斷)regulatorstostepintocheckthosewhocontrolitsflow.Acenturyago,theresourcein
questionwasoil.Nowsimilarconcernsarebeingraisedbythegiants(巨頭)thatdealindata,the
oilofthedigitalage.ThemostvaluablefirmsareGoogle,Amazon,FacebookandMicrosoft.All
lookunstoppable.
Suchsituationshaveledtocallsforthetechgiantstobebrokenup.Butsizealoneisnota
crime.Thegiants'successhasbenefitedconsumers.Fewwanttolivewithoutsearchenginesora
quickdelivery.Farfromchargingconsumershighprices,manyoftheseservicesarefree(users
pay,ineffect,byhandingoveryetmoredata).Andtheappearanceofnew-borngiantssuggests
thatnewcomerscanmakewaves,too.
Butthereiscauseforconcern.Theinternethasmadedataabundant,all-presentandfar
morevaluable,changingthenatureofdataandcompetition.Googleinitiallyusedthedata
collectedfromuserstotargetadvertisingbetter.Butrecentlyithasdiscoveredthatdatacanbe
turnedintonewservices:translationandvisualrecognition,tobesoldtoothercompanies.
Internetcompanies'controlofdatagivesthemenormouspower.Sotheyhavea"God'seyeview"
ofactivitiesintheirownmarketsandbeyond.
Thisnatureofdatamakestheantitrustmeasuresofthepastlessuseful.Breakingupfirms
likeGoogleintofivesmalloneswouldnotstopremakingthemselves:intime,oneofthemwould
becomegreatagain.Arethinkisrequired—andasanewapproachstartstobecomeapparent,
twoideasstandout.
Thefirstisthatantitrustauthoritiesneedtomovefromtheindustrialageintothe21st
century.Whenconsideringamerger(兼并),forexample,theyhavetraditionallyusedsizeto
determinewhentostepin.Theynowneedtotakeintoaccounttheextentoffirms'data
assets(資產(chǎn))whenassessingtheimpactofdeals.Thepurchasepricecouldalsobeasignalthat
anestablishedcompanyisbuyinganew-bornthreat.Whenthistakesplace,especiallywhena
new-borncompanyhasnorevenuetospeakof,theregulatorsshouldraiseredflags.
Thesecondprincipleistoloosenthecontrolthatprovidersofon-lineserviceshaveover
dataandgivemoretothosewhosupplythem.Companiescouldbeforcedtorevealto
consumerswhatinformationtheyholdandhowmuchmoneytheymakefromjt.Governments
couldorderthesharingofcertainkindsofdata,withusers'consent.
Restartingantitrustfortheinformationagewillnotbeeasy.Butifgovernmentsdon'twanta
dataeconomycontrolledbyafewgiants,theymustactsoon.
61.Whyisthereacalltobreakupgiants?
A.Theyhavecontrolledthedatamarket.
B.Theycollectenormousprivatedata.
C.Theynolongerprovidefreeservices.
D.Theydismissedsomenew-borngiants.
62.WhatdoesthetechnologicalinnovationinParagraph3indicate?
A.Datagiants'technologyisveryexpensive.
B.Google'sideaispopularamongdatafirms.
C.Datacanstrengthengiants'controllingposition.
D.Datacanbeturnedintonewservicesorproducts.
63.Bypayingattentiontofirms'dataassets,antitrustregulatorscould.
A.killanewthreatB.avoidthesizetrap
C.favourbiggerfirmsD.chargehigherprices
64.Whatisthepurposeoflooseningthegiants'controlofdata?
A.Bigcompaniescouldrelievedatasecuritypressure.
B.Governmentscouldrelievetheirfinancialpressure.
C.Consumerscouldbetterprotecttheirprivacy.
D.Smallcompaniescouldgetmoreopportunities.
D
OldProblem,NewApproaches
Whilecleanenergyisincreasinglyusedinourdailylife,globalwarmingwillcontinuefor
somedecadesafterCO2emissions(排放)peak.Soevenifemissionsweretobegintodecrease
today,wewouldstillfacethechallengeofadaptingtoclimatechange.HereIwillstresssome
smarterandmorecreativeexamplesofclimateadaptation.
Whenitcomestoadaptation,itisimportanttounderstandthatclimatechangeisaprocess.
Wearethereforenottalkingaboutadaptingtoanewstandard,buttoaconstantlyshiftingsetof
conditions.Thisiswhy,inpartatleast,theUSNationalClimateAssessmentsaysthat:"Thereis
no'one-sizefitsall'adaptationJNevertheless,therearesomeactionsthatoffermuchandcarry
littleriskorcost.
Aroundtheworld,peopleareadaptinginsurprisingways,especiallyinsomepoorcountries.
FloodshavebecomemoredamaginginBangladeshinrecentdecades.MohammedRezwansaw
opportunitywhereotherssawonlydisaster.Hisnot-for-profitorganizationruns100riverboats
thatserveasfloatinglibraries,schools,andhealthclinics,andareequippedwithsolarpanelsand
othercommunicatingfacilities.Rezwaniscreatingfloatingconnectivity(連接)toreplaceflooded
roadsandhighways.Butheisalsoworkingatafarmorefundamentallevel:hisstaffshowpeople
howtomakefloatinggardensandfishpondstopreventstarvationduringthewetseason.
ElsewhereinAsiaevenmoreastonishingactionsarebeingtaken.ChewangNorphellivesina
mountainousregioninIndia,whereheisknownastheIceMan.Thelossofglaciers(冰〃I)there
duetoglobalwarmingrepresentsanenormousthreattoagriculture.Withouttheglaciers,water
willarriveintheriversattimeswhenitcandamagecrops.NorpheKsinspirationcamefrom
seeingthewasteofwateroverwinter,whenitwasnotneeded.Hedirectedthewastedwater
intoshallowbasinswhereitfroze,andwasstoreduntilthespring.Hisfieldsoficesupply
perfectlytimedirrigation6翟;既)water.Havingcreatedninesuchicereserves,Norphelcalculates
thathehasstoredabout200,000m3ofwater.Climatechangeisacontinuingprocess,soNorpheKs
icereserveswillnotlastforever.Warmingwillovertakethem.Butheisprovidingafewyears
duringwhichthefarmerswill,perhaps,beabletofindothermeansofadapting.
IncreasingEarth'sreflectivenesscancooltheplanet.InsouthernSpainthesuddenincrease
ofgreenhouses(whichreflectlightbacktospace)haschangedthewarmingtrendlocally,and
actuallycooledtheregion.WhileSpainasawholeisheatingupquickly,temperaturesnearthe
greenhouseshavedecreased.Thisexampleshouldactasaninspirationforallcities.Bypainting
buildingswhite,citiesmayslowdownthewarmingprocess.
InPeru,localfarmersaroundamountainwithaglacierthathasalreadyfallenvictimto
climatechangehavebegunpaintingtheentiremountainpeakwhiteinthehopethattheadded
reflectivenesswillrestorethelife-givingice.Theoutcomeisstillfarfromclear.ButtheWorld
Bankhasincludedtheprojectonitslistof"100ideastosavetheplanet".
Moreordinaryformsofadaptationarehappeningeverywhere.Afriendofmineownsan
areaoflandinwesternVictoria.Overfivegenerationsthelandhasbeentoowetforcropping.
Butduringthepastdecadedecliningrainfallhasallowedhimtoplanthighlyprofitablecrops.
Farmersinmanycountriesarealsoadaptinglikethis—eitherbygrowingnewproduce,orby
growingthesamethingsdifferently.Thisiscommonsense.Butsomesuggestionsforadapting
arenot.Whenthepollutingindustriesarguethatwe'velostthebattletocontrolcarbonpollution
andhavenochoicebuttoadapt,it'sanonsensedesignedtomakethecaseforbusinessasusual.
Humanbeingswillcontinuetoadapttothechangingclimateinbothordinaryand
astonishingways.Butthemostsensibleformofadaptationissurelytoadaptourenergysystems
toemitlesscarbonpollution.Afterall,ifweadaptinthatway,wemayavoidtheneedtochange
insomanyothers.
65.TheunderlinedpartinParagraph2implies.
A.adaptationisanever-changingprocess
B.thecostofadaptationvarieswithtime
C.globalwarmingaffectsadaptationforms
D.adaptationtoclimatechangeischallenging
66.WhatisspecialwithregardtoRezwan'sproject?
A.Theprojectreceivesgovernmentsupport.
B.Differentorganizationsworkwitheachother.
C.Hisorganizationmakesthebestofabadsituation.
D.Theprojectconnectsfloodedroadsandhighways.
67.WhatdidtheIceMandotoreducetheeffectofglobalwarming?
A.Storingiceforfutureuse.
B.Protectingtheglaciersfrommelting.
C.Changingtheirrigationtime.
D.Postponingthemeltingoftheglaciers.
68.WhatdowelearnfromthePeruexample?
A.Whitepaintisusuallysafeforbuildings.
B.Theglobalwarmingtrendcannotbestopped.
C.Thiscountryisheatinguptooquickly.
D.Sunlightreflectionmayrelieveglobalwarming.
69.Accordingtotheauthor,pollutingindustriesshould.
A.adapttocarbonpollutionB.planthighlyprofitablecrops
C.leavecarbonemissionaloneD.fightagainstcarbonpollution
70.What'stheauthor'spreferredsolutiontoglobalwarming?
A.Settingupanewstandard.B.Reducingcarbonemission.
C.Adaptingtoclimatechange.D.Monitoringpollutingindustries.
第四部分:任務(wù)型閱讀(共10小題;每小題I分,滿分10分)
請認真閱讀下面短文,并根據(jù)所讀內(nèi)容在文章后表格中的空格里填入一個最恰當?shù)膯?/p>
詞。
注意:請將答案寫在答題卡上相應(yīng)題號的橫線上。每個空格只填一個單詞。
PopulationChange
Whyistheworld'spopulationgrowing?Theanswerisnotwhatyoumightthink.Thereason
fortheexplosionisnotthatpeoplehavebeenreproducinglikerabbits,butthatpeoplehave
stoppeddroppingdeadlikeflies.In1900,peoplediedattheaverageageof30.By2000the
averageagewas65.Butwhileincreasinghealthwasatypicalfeatureofthe20thcentury,
decliningbirthratecouldbeadefiningoneofthe21st.
AgreatdeclineinyoungworkforceislikelytooccurinChina,forinstance.Whatdoesit
imply?First,Chinaneedstoundergorapideconomicdevelopmentbeforeapopulationdecline
hitsthecountry.Second,ifotherfactorssuchastechnologyremainconstant,economicgrowth
andmaterialexpectationswillfallwellbelowrecentstandardsandthiscouldinvitetrouble.
Russiaisanothercountrywithpopulationproblemsthatcouldbreakitseconomicpromise.
Since1992thenumberofpeopledyinghasbeenbiggerthanthatofthosebeingbornbya
massive50%.Indeedofficialfiguressuggestthecountryhasshrunkby5%since1993andpeople
inRussialiveashorterlifenowthanthosein1961.Whyisthisoccurring?Nobodyisquitesure,
butpoordietandabovealllong-timealcoholismhavemuchtodowithit.Ifcurrenttrendsdon't
bend,Russia/spopulationwillbeaboutthesizeofYemen'sbytheyear2050.
InthenorthofIndia,thepopulationisboomingduetohighbirthrates,butinthesouth,
wheremosteconomicdevelopmentistakingplace,birthrateisfallingrapidly.Inafurthertwist,
birthrateishighestinpoorlyeducatedruralareasandlowestinhighlyeducatedurbanareas.In
total,25%ofIndia'sworking-agepopulationhasnoeducation.In2030,asixthofthecountry's
potentialworkforcecouldbetotallyuneducated.
Onesolutionisobviouslytoimportforeignworkersviaimmigration.AsfortheUSA,itis
almostuniqueamongdevelopednationsinhav
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