22022全球圖像傳感器行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)深度研究報(bào)告BySep.2022群智咨詢Sigmaintell(2022H2)2027-ALLRIGHTSRESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELL.REPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION.@2021-20222ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION2范圍CMOS工藝，具有功耗低、速度快的優(yōu)點(diǎn)，被廣泛地用于制造CPU、存儲(chǔ)器和各種數(shù)字邏輯芯片。基于CMOS工藝設(shè)計(jì)的圖像傳感器叫做ensorCISCMOSsensor位于鏡頭和圖像信號(hào)處理器(ISP)之間，把光信號(hào)轉(zhuǎn)換成ISP能夠處理的數(shù)字信號(hào)。235235目錄027F)?全球汽車廠商出貨排名(2021)020-2027F)020-2027F)(2020-2027F)-2027F)020-2027F)?全球新能源汽車廠商出貨結(jié)構(gòu)(2021)勢(shì)趨勢(shì)展趨勢(shì)ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION◆晶圓產(chǎn)能CIS020-2027F)CIS測(cè)(2020-2027F)nmCIS(2020-2027F)nmCIS勢(shì)(2020-2027F)CIS趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(2020-2027F)CIS-晶圓代工廠ISSamsungCISTCISONSEMICIS◆芯片設(shè)計(jì)60inch趨勢(shì)(2021-2023F)?12-inch晶圓代工廠產(chǎn)能發(fā)展趨勢(shì)(2021-2023F)38?全球手機(jī)CIS出貨規(guī)模預(yù)測(cè)(2020-2027F)CIS預(yù)測(cè)(21Q1-23Q4F)展趨勢(shì)(22Q1-23Q4F)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)(22Q1-23Q4F)SonyQ3Q4F)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)-Samsung(22Q1-23Q4F)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)-OmniVision(22Q1-23Q4F)-SKHynix(22Q1-23Q4F)GalaxyCoreQ23Q4F)3研究目錄2Q1-23Q4F)2Q1-23Q4F)Samsung22Q1-23Q4F)-Apple(22Q1-23Q4F)Huawei(22Q1-23Q4F)Honor(22Q1-23Q4F)Xiaomi(22Q1-23Q4F)OPPO(22Q1-23Q4F)vivo(22Q1-23Q4F)Sony(2022-2023F)Samsung2022-2023F)OmniVision(2022-2023F)GalaxyCore(2022-2023F)Smartens2022-2023F)Sony021-2022)Samsung2021-2022)OmniVision(2021-2022)SKHynix(2021-2022)GalaxyCore(2021-2022)分析(2022)◆模組趨勢(shì)額發(fā)展趨勢(shì)-手機(jī)(2021-2022)商供應(yīng)鏈結(jié)構(gòu)趨勢(shì)-手機(jī)(2021-2022)WaferStackel?圖像傳感器產(chǎn)品路標(biāo)(手機(jī)類)(2021-2023F)?智能手機(jī)像素結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)(2021-2023F)劃進(jìn)度-智能手機(jī)Sensorshift趨勢(shì)?智能手機(jī)搭載外掛ISP發(fā)展趨勢(shì)(2020-2027F)-車載勢(shì)DD熱點(diǎn)D勢(shì)(2020-2027F)142ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION11宏觀環(huán)境ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION6ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION6I緣沖突和全球通脹拖累增長(zhǎng)步伐，歐洲/新興國家受損程度大于北美/拉美國家ojectionupdatesApr-3.1.3-1.1.9.9.0.0.0.30.7.5.50.7.3-0.1.5.0EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies6.83.63.90.0-0.2-2.06.8-1.1.5pe.9Russia.0.52.7.5.3an.5.0.3.9.31.7ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION8ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION8 ChinaUSAJapanGermanyU.K.India值連續(xù)兩年兩位長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)Y22 ChinaUSAJapanGermanyU.K.India值連續(xù)兩年兩位長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)Y22+9%c經(jīng)濟(jì)周期&產(chǎn)業(yè)周期–20年來三次經(jīng)濟(jì)周期，科技產(chǎn)業(yè)周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期首次“異步”GlobalEconomycycle&Hi-techcycleAnalysis(*GDPGrowthrateV.S.Hi-techrevenueGrowthrate)Ukrainewar/Energysanction轉(zhuǎn)弱，大陸廠商擴(kuò)資居第一R2=0R2=0高通脹抑制個(gè)人消費(fèi)高位下行，美/歐核心經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)分化omicalIndextrackandforecast4.00.06.002.0USAUnemploymentUSAConsumerExpenditureUSACPI8.46.76.7.92.62.22.22.01.821.23,7003,3002,9002,7004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00050000.02,50018Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q3F22Q4FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONJan-20MarJan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22R2=0.73能源和進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品成本共同推升CPI，進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品成本與CPI之間約9個(gè)月反應(yīng)周期eekeyindexandUSACPIrelationshipanalysisMonthLogisticCostKeypanelpriceTotalcostOilPriceIndexMay-200.18Jun0.75Jul-205Aug-202047Sep-202382Oct-2023502374Dec-202563Jan-213411Feb-2134016Mar-212.6360Apr-214.23634May-215.0486Jun5.4541Jul-215.4225Aug-215.3218Sep-215.4208Oct-216.29876.8852Dec-217.0913Jan-227.5928Feb-227.9931Mar-228.5973Apr-228.38933May-228.68445Jun8.76167Jul-228.639718USACPIRegressionAnalysis86420-2-4xtrendofUSAandEurope EU(FlightNo.,K)US(PassengerNo.,Mil.)0006040604020800400---ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION0Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q12Q22Q3F2Q4F3Q1F3Q2F3Q3F3Q4F102.0100.098.096.094.092.090.088.086.0格將漸回落但處于歷史高位，歐洲/亞太/非洲市場(chǎng)2023年將繼續(xù)被拖累lMarketASPandVolumeForecastVolumembdASP(USD/b)400RegressionAnalysisR2=0.94lMarketSupplyandDemandLandscapefficiencyrateCDAmericaOECDEurope%AsiaPacificca%frica%OPEC%Others+350%Wealtheffect+123%Urba+350%Wealtheffect+123%Urbanization+134%+37%低迷ChinaEstateMarketRevenueGrowthTrendmilRMB022ChinaEstateMarketSalesAreaGrowthTrend(10Ksquaremeters)??Drivenbythewealtheffectbroughtbyreformandopeningupandurbanization,China'srealestatemarkethasexperiencedtworoundsofrapidgrowth,withtherealestatemarketsalesareaincreasing3.2timesinthe16yearsfrom2005to2021.?Accordingtotheresultsofthe2020census,thegrowthrateofChina'surbanpopulationfrom2010to2020is36%,andthegrowthrateoftherealestatesalesareais37%inthesameperiod.Itisestimatedthatby2021,therealestatedemandintheurbanizationprocessinthepastdecadeshasbeenbasicallyabsorbed.200000000000000000000000008000060000400002000080%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%2000000000000000000000000080000600004000020000060%50%40%30%20%0%-20%-30%EstaterevenuerevenueYoYSourceSigmaintellBureauofChinaStatisticsESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONEstateSalesAreaonincreaseratioinlastyears YoY國?5keychangesonconsumers’behavior:?1.Moresaving,lessspending,especiallyforlowincomeusers,theyintendtospendmoreonrepairofelectronicgoods,ratherthanpurchaseanewone.國?5keychangesonconsumers’behavior:?1.Moresaving,lessspending,especiallyforlowincomeusers,theyintendtospendmoreonrepairofelectronicgoods,ratherthanpurchaseanewone.?2.Morerational,deeperpersonality.Itcanbeappliedonalllevelofusers,evenformid-highendusers,theyaregettingmorerational,lessimpactedfrommassmedia,lowerinterestedonlessusefulfunction.?3.Happiertopayfor"Entertainment“,over35%ofusersfeedbackthattheyaremorewillingtopayfor“entertainment”,theyoungergeneration,thehigherproportion.?4.Heavierdependenton3CProducts.Withmoretimespentathome,38%ofusersfeedbacktheyhavespentmoretimeon3Cproducts.?5.Prefertohybrid-workingmodel.Closeto30%usersareinhybrid-workingmodelnow,and60%usersfeedbacktheyarewillingtohybrid-working.場(chǎng)和企業(yè)經(jīng)營面臨7年來最大挑戰(zhàn)和轉(zhuǎn)型機(jī)遇38%working50%ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION22智能終端ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION機(jī)生產(chǎn)量同比下降約3%點(diǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)10月份以后開始逐步回暖.4%，預(yù)計(jì)2023年保持持平ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION車復(fù)速率放緩快而緩慢增長(zhǎng)，中長(zhǎng)期保持增長(zhǎng)萬輛-20萬區(qū)間是車企競(jìng)爭(zhēng)最激烈的段位20-30萬區(qū)間主要集中在特斯拉、比亞迪、小鵬等品牌的車型主要集中在特斯拉、理想汽車、蔚來汽車ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION30%20%0%-20%-30%-40%449424403330%20%0%-20%-30%-40%449424403384351336321299266-3%-3%8448446443405390357333333315307308297272274255存壓力偏高，二季度中國大陸智能手機(jī)生產(chǎn)量同比下降約3%智能智能終端智能手機(jī)6045044043042044utonMainlandChinaQQ50%50240502Y19Q2Y19Q3Y19Q4Y20Q1Y20Q2Y20Q3Y20Q4Y21Q1Y21Q2Y21Q3Y21Q4Y22Q1Y22Q2MobilePhoneOutput(untis:Mil.)SmartphoneOutput(units:Mil.)MobilePhoneOutputYOY(%)SmartphoneOutputYOY(%)ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION同比下降約8%，為全年低點(diǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)10月份以后開始逐步回暖智能智能終端智能手機(jī)pmentTrendsQQF404354304254204437237227%263-3%336301313352278289-8%331283-6%286%2983%3362%-10%%6%% 270Y20Q1Y20Q2Y20Q3Y20Q4Y21Q1Y21Q2Y21Q3Y21Q422Q122Q222Q3F22Q4F23Q1F23Q2F23Q3F23Q4FShipment(mil.)YoY(%)30%25%20%%%-5%-20%SourceSigmaintellDataupdatetimeSeptember022ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION降約7.4%，預(yù)計(jì)2023年保持持平智能智能終端智能手機(jī)martphoneBrandsShipmentandForecastMilQQFandTotalsungionESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION23%22%21%22%23%22%21%22%定，中國大陸頭部終端面臨挑戰(zhàn)智能智能終端智能手機(jī)martphoneBrandsShipmentandForecastMilQQF25%20%5%%%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q3F22Q4F23Q1F23Q2F23Q3F23Q4FSamsungAppleXiaomiOPPORealmeOnePlusvivoHuaweiHonorTCL/AlcatelESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION282mil，同比下滑約13.2%智能智能終端智能手機(jī)ShipmentandForecastMilQQFQFFY22FFFFFY23FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONXiaomiOPPO(oneplus)Realmevivo1%8%5%82%%75%73%66%63%0%%48%45%43%40%3%27%23%%2%%8%7%%%XiaomiOPPO(oneplus)Realmevivo1%8%5%82%%75%73%66%63%0%%48%45%43%40%3%27%23%%2%%8%7%%%6%5%%%9%%%%7%6%6%5%4%1%7%%7%6%49%3%3%2%2%45%1%43%1%44%0%44%48%41%48%48%42%41%9%28%28%29%27%27%27%27%27%27%26%26%24%海外市場(chǎng)，榮耀/華為正努力擴(kuò)大海外市場(chǎng)智能智能終端智能手機(jī)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%%mentindomesticmarketrationtrendsQQ22Q1Apple21Q121Q221Q321Q4Grand%SamsungY21HuaweiY2222Q1Apple21Q121Q221Q321Q4Grand%SamsungY21HuaweiY22FY23FHonorrandTotalrandTotalOPPOrandTotalrandTotalSourceSigmaintellDataupdatetimeSeptember022智能智能終端智能手機(jī)ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONBEV:(純電動(dòng)汽車)BEV:(純電動(dòng)汽車)FCEV:(燃料電池汽車)FuelcellElectricvehicleMirai田Clarity附錄——新能源汽車的定義.智能智能終端智能汽車PHEVPHEV:(插電式混合動(dòng)力汽車)比亞迪秦/宋DM-i、榮威e550，別克EREV:(增程式電動(dòng)汽車)代表車型:理想One、嵐圖Free、問界M5HEVHEV:(混合動(dòng)力汽車)表車型:豐田普銳斯混動(dòng)、豐田雷凌/卡羅拉混動(dòng)，由于芯片短缺全球汽車銷量恢復(fù)速率放緩智能智能終端智能汽車◆根據(jù)群智咨詢(Sigmaintell)統(tǒng)計(jì)及預(yù)測(cè)，2022年全球汽車出貨量約為8030萬輛，同比下降0.8%。汽車銷量走勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：百萬輛.%)Shipment(unit:Mil.)YoY(%)7397393.84.0%4.0%0%84.6.5%%3.5%%80.9.0%0.4%-0.8%0.4%-4.5%-14.3%Y17Y18Y19Y20Y21Y22EY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION市場(chǎng)規(guī)模倚靠新能源汽車迭代加快而緩慢增長(zhǎng)智能智能終端智能汽車◆根據(jù)群智咨詢(Sigmaintell)分析預(yù)測(cè)，2022年全球乘用車銷量預(yù)計(jì)為5690萬輛，相比去年僅有1.7%增長(zhǎng)基本持平，預(yù)計(jì)2025年前后將恢復(fù)到2019年的規(guī)Shipment(unit:Mil.)YoY(%)4.24.2%5.2%66.83.2%2.0%-0.2%53.5-4.7%64.73.7%4.5%1.7%63.762.466.859.955.969.068.156.9Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027F0萬臺(tái)，同比下降6.6%智能智能終端智能汽車◆根據(jù)群智咨詢(Sigmaintell)分析預(yù)測(cè)，預(yù)計(jì)2022年全球CV市場(chǎng)將約為2340萬臺(tái)，低于2021的水平，預(yù)計(jì)2026年左右將恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平。Shipmentunit:Mil.)YoY(%)28.56.6%6464.0.4.0.4.64.704.7043.0%42.5%0%2.0%0%-3.9%-6.6%Y2017Y2018Y2019Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION計(jì)為2700萬輛，中長(zhǎng)期保持增長(zhǎng)智能智能終端智能汽車tell國新冠疫情反復(fù)蔓延，吉林、上海等汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)一線地區(qū)受到了不同程度的影響。供應(yīng)鏈中斷、物流受阻和消費(fèi)能力下降等使得快速增長(zhǎng)的汽車行大陸地區(qū)汽車銷量走勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：百萬輛.%)CNVehicleShipment(untis:Mil.)CNVehicleShipmentYoY(%)30.96.5%30.031.728.828.04.2%28.93.5%3.9%3.0%26.327.03.0%2.6%30.96.5%30.031.728.828.04.2%28.93.5%3.9%3.0%26.327.03.0%2.6%-2.9%25.8-8 25.33232.52.5%Y17Y18Y19Y20Y21Y22EY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION26.625.95.4%24.723.73.0%23.23.0%22.821.57.8%20.125.12.6%24.46.7%27.226.625.95.4%24.723.73.0%23.23.0%22.821.57.8%20.125.12.6%24.46.7%27.22.5%智能智能終端智能汽車◆根據(jù)群智咨詢(Sigmaintell)預(yù)測(cè)，中國地區(qū)乘用車市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)今年將超過疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，到2027年預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到約2720萬輛，其中國家政策舉措將發(fā)揮關(guān)CNPVShipment(untis:Mil.)CNPVShipmentYoY(%)-2.9%Y17Y18Y19Y20Y21Y22EY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION智能智能終端智能汽車◆根據(jù)群智咨詢(Sigmaintell)分析預(yù)測(cè)，2022年中國大陸地區(qū)商用車銷量預(yù)計(jì)390萬輛，隨著市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的逐步復(fù)蘇，商用車市場(chǎng)將以相對(duì)緩慢的速率恢復(fù)。CNCVShipment(untis:Mil.)CNCVShipmentYoY(%)75.8%75.8%5.04.94.84.42.9%3.90.5%2.9%5.04.94.84.42.9%3.90.5%2.9%2.6%5.15.32.5%55.14.14.1-2.9%4.4-2.9%4.42.9-2.9-8Y17Y18Y19Y20Y21Y22EY23FY24FY25FY26FY27FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION26.4%3.3%23.1%25.0%116.5%16.1%2.02.29.5%8.3%13.1%20.0%18.1% 2.1%226.4%3.3%23.1%25.0%116.5%16.1%2.02.29.5%8.3%13.1%20.0%18.1% 2.1%2.4%4.1%62%67%72%78%5%4%%%%%計(jì)將超過1000萬輛智能智能終端智能汽車Sigmaintell2022年全球新能源汽車預(yù)計(jì)將出貨1050萬輛，同比增長(zhǎng)55%，滲透率將達(dá)到13%，2027年這一數(shù)據(jù)將到30%左右。其中，BEV(純電動(dòng)汽車)增長(zhǎng)速度最快，占2027年全球汽車出貨量的近23%，PHEV(插電式混合動(dòng)力汽車)市場(chǎng)份額將占2027年銷量的7%。GlobalNEVShipment(Unit:Mil.)GlobalNEVShipmentYoY%MS%.0 1.4%30.1%20182019202020212022E2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2018-2027年全球汽車市場(chǎng)各動(dòng)力類型份額(單位：%)BEVPHEVFCEVMHEV/HEVICE20182019202020212022F2023F2024F2025F2026F2027FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION-3%智能智能終端智能汽車◆根據(jù)群智咨詢(Sigmaintell)的預(yù)測(cè)，預(yù)計(jì)到2027年新能源汽車的出貨量將達(dá)到約1550萬輛，滲透率將超過50%。2018-2027中國大陸地區(qū)新能源汽車銷量走勢(shì)(單位：百萬輛，%) YoY(%)20182019202020212022E2023F2024F2025F2026F2027F677Tesla,16.0%SGWM,5.2%VW,3.6%BWM,3.5%677Tesla,16.0%SGWM,5.2%VW,3.6%BWM,3.5%KIA,2.9%Mercedes,2.7%GAC,2.4%Xiaopeng,1.6%Audi,1.9%GWM,1.5%Chery,2.6%Hyundai,2.8%SAIC,3.0%Geely,3.3%oChangan,1.8%Ford,1.6%Neta,1.5%銷量前20名品牌中，中國品牌占據(jù)10席智能智能終端智能汽車Shipment(K)MS%Tesla SGWMVWMGeelySAIC HyundaiMercedes Chery GAC Volvo AudiChanganXiaopeng GWMaPeugeot63963922280853ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION4幾何E,0.7%朋克美美,0.9%百智大熊,1.2%元Pro,4.跑T03,6.1%4朋克多多,1.3%雷丁芒果,1.7%東風(fēng)EX1,2.5%比亞迪4幾何E,0.7%朋克美美,0.9%百智大熊,1.2%元Pro,4.跑T03,6.1%4朋克多多,1.3%雷丁芒果,1.7%東風(fēng)EX1,2.5%比亞迪e2,2.9%思皓E10X,4.2%陸地區(qū)，新能源汽車售價(jià)10萬元以內(nèi)的市場(chǎng)，宏光Mini銷量遙遙領(lǐng)先智能智能終端智能汽車iShipment(K)MS%宏光MINIQQ冰淇淋小螞蟻哪吒V零跑T03元Pro思皓E10X凌寶BOX比亞迪e2科萊威東風(fēng)EX1寶駿KiWi雷丁芒果楓葉60s朋克多多百智大熊楓葉80v朋克美美幾何E悅虎446宏光MINI,34.8%464132323977小螞蟻,8.5%76QQ冰淇淋,10.0%55楓葉80v,0.9%楓葉60s,1.4%寶駿KiWi,2.4%科萊威,2.8%凌寶BOX,2.9%哪吒V,7.6%ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION宋PLUSDM-i,14.0%4541秦PLUSDM-i,8.8%432海豚,宋PLUSDM-i,14.0%4541秦PLUSDM-i,8.8%432海豚,6.2%歐拉好貓,3.4%元PLUS,5.9%秦PLUSEV,5.3%AIONV,1.6%哪吒U,2.3%宋PLUSEV,3.0%ID.4CROZZ,2.2%810東風(fēng)風(fēng)神E70,2.6%AIONY,4.8%AIONS,4.3%微藍(lán)6,1.7%小鵬P5,2.5%零跑C11,2.0%驅(qū)逐艦05,1.7%新能源汽車售價(jià)10-20萬區(qū)間是車企競(jìng)爭(zhēng)最激烈的段位智能智能終端智能汽車海豚元PLUS秦PLUSEVAIONYAIONS歐拉好貓宋PLUSEV小鵬P5 哪吒U 幾何A零跑C11微藍(lán)6驅(qū)逐艦05AIONV啟辰D60XShipment(K)MS%ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION漢EV,106唐DM,13.8%極狐阿爾法S,1.1%帕薩特PHEV,1.5%本田CR-VPHEV,1.3%2皓影PHEV,0.7%2摩卡DHT-PHEV,0.8%探岳GTE漢EV,106唐DM,13.8%極狐阿爾法S,1.1%帕薩特PHEV,1.5%本田CR-VPHEV,1.3%2皓影PHEV,0.7%2摩卡DHT-PHEV,0.8%探岳GTE,0.9%邁騰GTE,1.2%能源汽車售價(jià)20-30萬區(qū)間主要集中在特斯拉、比亞迪、小鵬等品牌智能智能終端智能汽車◆在售價(jià)20萬至30萬元間的新能源汽車市場(chǎng)，特斯拉(Tesla)、比亞迪(BYD)、小鵬汽車(Xpeng)和問界品牌(AITO)等占據(jù)了該細(xì)分領(lǐng)域75%的市場(chǎng)漢EVModel3唐DM小鵬P7漢DM問界M5ZEEKR001唐EVX邁騰GTE探岳GTE皓影PHEVShipment(K)MS%449490555小鵬P7,10.0%5漢DM,9.1%4433問界M5,5.7%33途觀LPHEV,0.8%3ZEEKR001,5.4%極狐ZEEKR001,5.4%3ID.6CROZZ,2.9%唐EVID.6CROZZ,2.9%唐EV,1.7%48772221111004877222111100，新能源汽車售價(jià)30萬以上的車型主要集中在特斯拉、理想汽車、蔚來汽車智能智能終端智能汽車elY理想ONE蔚來ES6蔚來EC6寶馬iX3寶馬5系… 蔚來ES8領(lǐng)克09… 蔚來ET7嵐圖FREE紅旗E-HS9奔馳EQB奔馳EQC沃爾沃S90寶馬i3沃爾沃S60奧迪e-tronShipment(K)MS%ModelY,44.2%8理想ONE,20.0%奔馳E級(jí)PHEV,3.5%蔚來ES8,2.7%紅旗E-HS9,0.7%沃爾沃S60,0.2%蔚來ES8,2.7%紅旗E-HS9,0.7%蔚來ES6,7.8%寶馬5系蔚來ES6,7.8%蔚來ET7,2.3%蔚來EC6,4.1%寶馬iX3,3.5%奧迪e-tron,0.2%寶馬i3,0.2%奧迪蔚來ET7,2.3%蔚來EC6,4.1%寶馬iX3,3.5%嵐圖FREE,2.2%領(lǐng)克09PHEV,2.6%ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION33綜述展望ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION◆2022年僅車載及醫(yī)療市場(chǎng)規(guī)模保持增長(zhǎng)，未來AR/VR應(yīng)用將有機(jī)會(huì)貢獻(xiàn)產(chǎn)值◆多攝趨勢(shì)回落，核心芯片降價(jià)幅度大平◆未來3年CIS晶圓產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃相較去年預(yù)期有所減緩，但CAGR依舊達(dá)到約8.5%S◆FoldedZoom/SDR/8Kvideo等功能成為高端機(jī)型升級(jí)趨勢(shì)%%2022年全球圖像傳感器市場(chǎng)規(guī)模約180億美金，同比下滑約10%綜述展望2020-2027F全球圖像傳感器市場(chǎng)規(guī)模趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：億美金&百萬顆,%)◆群智咨詢(Sigmaintell)對(duì)全球圖像傳感器市場(chǎng)規(guī)模進(jìn)行測(cè)算，預(yù)計(jì)2022年全球圖像傳感器市場(chǎng)需求約66.3億顆(不含3D)，同比下滑約10%。主要場(chǎng)需求減弱影響以及高庫存等影響。隨著智能手機(jī)形態(tài)發(fā)生變化后(例如：折疊機(jī))，對(duì)攝像頭的芯片及模組工藝要求更高，從而將6億美金，未來5年仍將有一定的增幅空間。78502%2%75637399%2% -1Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027F$1993%3$1805%5%%Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027F全球圖像傳感器出貨量預(yù)測(cè)(單位：百萬顆)同比增幅(%)SourceSigmaintellRemarknoincluding3DsensingESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION全球圖像傳感器銷售額預(yù)測(cè)(單位：億美金)同比增幅(%)24623323949424018623322824530750342462332394942401862332282453075034來AR/VR應(yīng)用將有機(jī)會(huì)貢獻(xiàn)產(chǎn)值綜述展望2020-2027F全球圖像傳感器市場(chǎng)規(guī)模趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)-應(yīng)用別(單位：百萬美金&百萬顆,%)限。Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FMobilePhoneSecurityAutomotivePCTabletDSC/Mirrorless/DSLR/CamcorderMedicalOthers$491$$491$1,135$1,151$1,231$1,176$12,701$13,657$11,663$12,266$12,760$13,181$13,416$13,603Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FMobilePhoneSecurityAutomotivePCTabletDSC/Mirrorless/DSLR/CamcorderMedicalOthersSourceSigmaintellRemarknoincluding3DsensingESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONmarksDsensorisnotincludedESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONScs%.793.77Scs%.793.77.56.46Y2020Y2021Y2022EY023F33%31%34%23%41%30%26%37%24%31%攝趨勢(shì)回落，核心芯片降價(jià)幅度大2020-2023F全球智能手機(jī)多攝發(fā)展趨勢(shì)(單位：%)Y2022CISPriceTracking2M-(20%~30%)8M-(20%~25%)-(10%~15%)-(20~25%)50M(0.6x)-(7%~10%)50M(1.0)-10%108M(0.6&0.7)-(10%~15%)Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023E01.Single02.Dual03.Triple04.Quad05.PentaY2023FMobileCISASP$2.99$2.75Y2024FY2025FY2023FMobileCISASP$2.99$2.75Y2024FY2025FY2026FY2027F$2.96$2.91$2.84$2.71$2.71$2.22智能手機(jī)傳感器平均單價(jià)受供需影響呈現(xiàn)下滑趨勢(shì)，導(dǎo)致整體市場(chǎng)平均價(jià)格持平綜述展望2020-2027F全球圖像傳感器平均單價(jià)走勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：美金,%)◆2022年，盡管智能手機(jī)高端旗艦機(jī)廣角及超廣角等硬件規(guī)格持續(xù)升級(jí)，但是依然未能阻止因供大于求而導(dǎo)致sensor價(jià)格下滑帶來的平均價(jià)格下滑?！?022年，車載CIS升級(jí)趨勢(shì)明顯，安防及無反相機(jī)平均售價(jià)提升，令整體CIS平均價(jià)格并未追隨手機(jī)CIS下滑。◆2023年，智能手機(jī)CIS有望受益于新品迭代升級(jí)帶動(dòng)平均售價(jià)回升。$2$2.61$2.08$2.70$2.67$2.54$2.59$2.51$2.48Y2020Y2021Y2Y2020Y2021Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FGrandCISASPiPhone14Pro2022蔚來ET72022SourceSigmaintellRemarknoincluding3DsensingESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONCIS預(yù)期有所減緩，但CAGR依舊達(dá)到約8.5%綜述展望2020-2027F全球CIS晶圓產(chǎn)能趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：kWpm,12”eq.) 300mm200mm Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027F9494CIS期，擴(kuò)產(chǎn)計(jì)劃同比年初預(yù)期下調(diào)8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)綜述展望2020-2027F全球CIS晶圓制程技術(shù)產(chǎn)能趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：kWpm,12”eq.)nmY2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027F22/28nmYoY%Logicwafer12/14nmPixelwaferLogicPixelwafer22/28nm40nm55/6525%10%11%Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONdeo綜述展望FoldedZoom120120mm10XSupperHDR8KVideo88KformatHigh-speedreadout44ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONCIS相較去年預(yù)期有所減緩，但CAGR依舊達(dá)到約8.5%CIS年初預(yù)期下調(diào)8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)CSonynmCISCAGRnmCIS現(xiàn)供大于求狀態(tài)CIS且中國大陸晶圓廠追趕進(jìn)度加速Sony智能手機(jī)和車載應(yīng)用LSI中于智能手機(jī)應(yīng)用及計(jì)劃進(jìn)入AR/VR市場(chǎng)OVT將會(huì)繼續(xù)增產(chǎn)ONSEMICIS被競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手蠶食afer產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)晶圓2020-2023F核心應(yīng)用工藝技術(shù)平臺(tái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)Category＞180nm180nm180-110nm90/80nm65/55nm45/40nm28/22nm16/14/12nm8/7/6nm5/3nmSOCSmartphoneSOCTVSOCMCUIndustrialApp(8/16-bit)AutomotiveApp(32-bit)ConnectivityBluetoothWiFi5/6WiFi6EWiFi7RFcomponentsSwitch/LNA(RFSOI)SFingerprintsensorRFTransceiver8M&below10M&aboveDrivericLDDI/SDDITDDIOLEDDDITouchicTouchcontrollerPC-relatedUSBUSB3.0AudioICPowerMOSFET&IGBTMOSFETPMICESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONWaferCIS，但CAGR依舊達(dá)到約8.5%產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)晶圓2020-2027F全球CIS晶圓產(chǎn)能趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：kWpm,12”eq.) 300mm200mm Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION22/28nmYoY%Logicwafer12/14nm22/28nmYoY%Logicwafer12/14nmLogicwafer22/28nm40nm55/65nm10%11%Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027F26%Pixelwafer49WaferCIS擴(kuò)產(chǎn)計(jì)劃同比年初預(yù)期下調(diào)8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)晶圓2020-2027F全球CIS晶圓制程技術(shù)產(chǎn)能趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：kWpm,12”eq.)12/1412/14nm22/28nm40nm65/55nm≥90nmY2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FTSMCnmpixelTSMC2nmlogicwaferESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONTSMCSony554HLMCSKHynixSamsungSMICGlobalFoundries554544353438 29559865 4TSMCSony554HLMCSKHynixSamsungSMICGlobalFoundries554544353438 29559865 4 301Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027F5WaferTSMCSonynmCIS29%CAGR產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)晶圓2020-2027F28nm技術(shù)CIS晶圓廠擴(kuò)產(chǎn)計(jì)劃(單位：kWpm,12”eq.)2828nmCIS相關(guān)主流晶圓廠未來2-3年內(nèi)的主要擴(kuò)產(chǎn)計(jì)劃如下：◆臺(tái)積電將在南京擴(kuò)產(chǎn)28nm芯片，產(chǎn)能預(yù)計(jì)40K-60K/M,擴(kuò)產(chǎn)計(jì)劃預(yù)計(jì)2023年年中開始量產(chǎn)；另外，其在中國臺(tái)灣地區(qū)擴(kuò)產(chǎn)南科14廠P828nm制程，預(yù)計(jì)2022年四季度末量產(chǎn)。◆臺(tái)積電將與日本Sony旗下半導(dǎo)體子公司聯(lián)合投資70億美元，將在日本熊本縣建立一座用于生產(chǎn)12納米和22/28納米芯片的代工廠，原計(jì)劃是預(yù)計(jì)2022年開工(2024年投入生產(chǎn))。隨著日本電裝 (Denso)的加入，該工廠投資從70億增加到86億美元，產(chǎn)能最大到55K/M，預(yù)計(jì)到2024年底量產(chǎn).◆UMC計(jì)劃擴(kuò)充在臺(tái)南科學(xué)園區(qū)的12吋P6廠區(qū)的28nm產(chǎn)能，計(jì)劃將增加20K/M,預(yù)計(jì)2023年第二季投產(chǎn)。其中，F(xiàn)ab12AP5在2022年二季度已經(jīng)擴(kuò)產(chǎn)10K/M。UMC將在新加坡Fab12i廠新建一座30K/M的22/28nm工藝產(chǎn)線，預(yù)計(jì)2024年年底量產(chǎn)?！鬐F在新加坡Fab7廠旁邊新置地用于28nm~40nm擴(kuò)廠，該廠預(yù)計(jì)2023年Q1會(huì)釋放5K產(chǎn)能，2023年年底完成20K/M產(chǎn)能爬坡?！糁行緡H新增投資75億美元于天津擴(kuò)產(chǎn)10萬片/月12英寸產(chǎn)能，聚焦28nm~280nm成熟制程。ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONWafernmCIS需求大幅下滑影響，呈現(xiàn)供大于求狀態(tài)產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)晶圓CISkWpmeq25%23%2022年，28nm且芯片庫存升高，但短期內(nèi)產(chǎn)能無法及2023年2023年，由于TSMC/UMC及SMIC等28nm將會(huì)保持?jǐn)U產(chǎn)趨勢(shì)，并且與其客戶皆有簽訂中長(zhǎng)期產(chǎn)能需求下滑及庫存高漲的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)下，上游晶圓廠擴(kuò)產(chǎn)進(jìn)度及產(chǎn)能稼動(dòng)率將會(huì)作出調(diào)整，防止出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的供需失衡。21H1，LSI外延28nm產(chǎn)能處于爬坡階段，導(dǎo)致上半年供應(yīng)緊張。21H2，產(chǎn)能及良率皆達(dá)成穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)但遭遇需求下滑，而導(dǎo)致供大于求狀態(tài)。2020年28nm需求受制于產(chǎn)能限制而被延后Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)晶圓2020-2027F全球CIS晶圓制程技術(shù)產(chǎn)能趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)(單位：kWpm,12”eq.)HybridStackHybridStackStackTSVY2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FHybridStackYoY%1%2%Y2020Y2021Y2022EY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026FY2027FESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSIONWaferCIS代工產(chǎn)能，且中國大陸晶圓廠追趕進(jìn)度加速產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)能供應(yīng)晶圓2020-2027F全球CIS晶圓產(chǎn)能趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)-晶圓代工廠(單位：kWpm,12”eq.)C448089944447793656854344441111111122220008083334678ESERVEDBYSIGMAINTELLREPRODUCTIONPROHIBITEDWITHOUTWRITTENPERMISSION受到中國大陸品牌客戶需求下滑影響，對(duì)應(yīng)產(chǎn)能稼動(dòng)率下降C推動(dòng)其TSMC在產(chǎn)能大幅增長(zhǎng)受庫存累積的影響，Sony受到中國大