PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorized

January2023

GrowthandResilience

PacificIslands

SystematicCountryDiagnosticUpdate

Kiribati,RepublicofMarshallIslands,FederatedStates

ofMicronesia,Nauru,Palau,Samoa,Tonga,Tuvalu,Vanuatu

?2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,

DC20433

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123420191817

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SYSTEMATICCOUNTRYDIAGNOSTICUPDATE

Contents

ExecutiveSummary8

1.Introduction18

Regionalcontext19

Challengestodayandinthecomingyears—PIC-9SCDUpdate20

2.Developmentsingrowthandpovertyreductionsincethe2016SCD27

3.FundamentalconstraintsfacingthesmallPacificIslandeconomies33

Constraintsofsmallness,remotenessandinternaldispersion34

Constraintsoffragility,highvulnerabilitytodisasters,andclimatechange38

4.Addressingconstraints:pathwaysandpriorities44

Pathway1:Increasingeconomicopportunities45

Pathway2:Maximizinghumancapitalanditseconomicreturns61

Pathway3:Buildingresilientincomesandlivelihoods76

FundamentalEnablers:Strengtheninggovernanceandthebusinessenvironment86

5.Developmentprioritiesfortodayandthefuture104

PrioritizationStep1:ApplyingtheprioritizationcriteriatokeyissuesidentifiedintheSCDUpdate106

PrioritizationStep2:Identificationofcountryandregionalpriorities107

Annexes

Annex1:Supplementarytablesandfigures115

Annex2:AnalyticalworkusedforSCDUpdate130

Figures

Figure1:GrantsdisbursedbyofficialdonorsaspercentofGDP,average2011-2021

Figure2:Donorshareofdisbursedgrants,average2011-2021

Figure3:MovingForward—Fromconstraintstoachievingthetwingoals22

Figure4:GDPgrowthinmostPIC-9countriesincreasedbetween2010-2019…29

Figure5:…butCOVID-19hasbeenalargenegativeshockongrowth29

Figure6:PovertyishigherinRMIthancomparatorupper-middleincomecountriesandlowerinKiribati

andVanuatuthancomparatorlower-middleincomecountries30

Figure7:Manyhouseholdslackaccesstoatleastsomebasicservices,particularlyinVanuatuandKiribati30

Figure8:Spatialpoverty($3.20-line)forselectedcountries31

Figure9:Spatialdistributionofthepoor($3.20)forselectedcountries31

Figure10:Projectedpovertytrends2016-20,selectedcountries32

1

FigureA-2:ShippinglinerconnectivityforPacificIslandCountries(Index,100ismaximuminQ12006)122

FigureA-3:Muchofthepopulationoftennotlivingonthemainisland122

FigureA-4:TotalaidflowstothePIC-9,2009-2019(as%ofGDP)122

FigureA-5:ThePIC-9countrieshavearelativelyhigherprevalenceofoverweightadults…123

FigureA-6:…whichtranslatesintoahigherprevalenceofdiabetesamongadults123

FigureA-7:Povertyrates($3.20line)areconsiderablylowerforhouseholdswhoseheadhastertiary

education123

FigureA-8:Grossenrollmentratioinearlychildhoodeducationislessthanhalfinanumberofcountries123

FigureA-9:Individualswithmoreeducationaremorelikelytohavewageemployment

Shareofpeopleaged20to60whoareemployedforawagebyhighestlevelofeducation124

FigureA-10:PrimaryandSecondaryCompletionRate125

FigureA-11:ExpectedyearsofschoolingisbetweenstructuralandaspirationalpeersinmostPIC-9

countries,exceptRMIandVanuatu125

FigureA-12:GirlsarebestingboysinTongauppersecondaryexams(passratesin2020attheupper

secondarylevelbygenderandgrade)126

FigureA-13:Manystudentsfailtoachieveaminimumproficiencylevelinreadingattheendofgrade6,

particularlyboys127

FigureA-14:Population-weightedaveragedistancestonearestsecondaryschool(km)arefartheronouter

islands—prohibitivelysoinTuvaluandRMI127

FigureA-15:ShareofSTEMoccupationsinmenandwomen’semploymentinPIC-9128

FigureA-16:Youthunemploymentrates(ages15-24)inPIC-9128

FigureA-17:Mobilephonecoverage128

FigureA-18:Internetaccess128

FigureA-19:Projectedfiscalbalances(aftergrantsandtrustfundflows)asapercentofGDP130

FigureA-20:Frameworkofthemicrosimulation134

FigureA-21:Modelingprocess135

FigureA-22:COVID-19stimulusinthePIC-9137

Tables

TableES1:SummaryofkeyunderlyingcharacteristicsbyPIC-9country12

TableES2:Country-specificdevelopmentprioritysolutionareas14

Table1:SummaryofkeyunderlyingcharacteristicsbyPIC-9country23

Table2:AverageannuallossesduetodisastersasapercentageofGDP42

Table3:UneventourismgrowthratesacrossthePIC-9beforeCOVID-1946

Table4:PotentialimpactofVDSreformsonrevenues52

Table5:PICs’accesstokeylabormobilityschemes53

Table6:Keyagriculture-relatedcharacteristicsofPIC-9countries83

Table7:EvolutionoftheriskofdistressinthePIC-9countries99

Table8:Developmentprioritiesandsolutionareas107

Table9:Country-specificdevelopmentprioritysolutionareas110

TableA-1:PIC-8SCDPrioritizationofsolutionareas115

TableA-2:PIC-8SCDCountryspecificityofveryhighprioritysolutionareas118

TableA-3:SelectedindicatorsforPIC-9120

TableA-4:EarlyreadingassessmentsinPacificIslandcountriesshowwelllessthanhalfofstudents

canreadproperly126

TableA-5:ProvidentfundsinthestudiedPacificcountries129

TableA-6:Fiscalprojectionscenarios132

TableA-7:Feasibilityfilter133

TableA-8Keyassumptionsandlimitationsinthemacro-microsimulationsapproach136

TableA-9:SummaryofkeyfiscalmeasurestosupporthouseholdsandfirmsinthePIC-9138

3

SYSTEMATICCOUNTRYDIAGNOSTICUPDATE

Acknowledgments

ThisSystematicCountryDiagnosticUpdatewaspreparedbyateamconsistingof:DavidGould(TaskTeamLeader,ProgramLeader,EEADR);MatthewWai-Poi(TaskTeamLeader,LeadEconomist(EEAPV);AnnaRobinson(Economist,EEAM2);AndrewBlackman(SeniorEconomist,EEAM2);DemetKaya(SeniorEconomist,EEAM2);RuthNikijuluw(Economist,EEAM2);TuimasiUlu(ResearchAnalyst,EEAM2);VisheshAgarwal(ResearchAnalyst,EEAM2);KristenHimelein(SeniorEconomist,EEAPV);TaufikIndrakesuma(Economist,EEAPV);DarianNaidoo(Economist,EEAPV);ChrisHoy(YoungProfessional,EEAPV);ShoheiNakamura(Economist,EEAPV);RuthLlovet(YoungProfessional,ELCPV);VirginiaHorscroft(SeniorPublicSectorSpecialist,EEAG2);JulianaWeingaertner(ETConsultant,EEAG2);RobertGilfoyle(SeniorFinancialManagementSpecialist,EEAG2);BonnieSirois(Senior(FinancialManagementSpecialist,EEAG2);MichaelOsborne(SeniorProcurementSpecialist,EEAR2);DonnaAndrews(SeniorPublicSectorSpecialist,EPSPA);ChrisMiller(SeniorPrivateSectorSpecialist,EEAF2);JessieMcComb(ETConsultant,ETIMT);AntoineCoste(Economist,EEAF2);KatiaD’Hulster(LeadFinancialSectorSpecialist,EEAF2);DaraLengkong(SeniorFinancialSectorSpecialist,EEAF2);JohnPlevin(FinancialSectorSpecialist,EFNRF);RebeccaLast(OperationsOfficer,CEAA1);DonnaChung(SeniorProgramOfficer,GTFS1);SaraBatmanglich(SeniorOperationsOfficer,GTFS1);PatrickBarron(Adviser,GTFS1);IndiraKonjhodzic(LeadOperationsOfficer,GTFS1);LindseyJones(ETConsultant,GTFS1);BiancaAdam(SeniorOperationsOfficer,GTFS1);JamesNeumann(SeniorCounsel,IDD05);SharadaSrinivasan(DigitalDevelopmentSpecialist,IDD01);GiorgiaDemarchi(SeniorSocialDevelopmentSpecialist,SEAS1);SonyaWoo(SeniorSocialDevelopmentSpecialist,SEAS1);DimitriaGavalyugova(Consultant,SEAS1);RebekahRamsay(SocialDevelopmentSpecialist,SEAS1);KariHurt(SeniorOperationsOfficer,HEAHN);SusanIvatts(SeniorHealthSpecialist,HEAHN);LarsSondergaard(LeadEconomist,HEAED);RyokoTomita(SeniorEducationSpecialist,HEAED);MaudeRuestA.(Consultant,HEAHN);WayneIrava(HealthSpecialist,HEAHN);CarolAtienoObure(HealthEconomist,HEAHN);MesulameR.Namedre(Consultant,HEAHN);RobertJ.Flanagan(Consultant,HEAHN);MatthewDornan(SeniorEconomist,HEASP);SandorKarascony(SeniorEconomist,HEASP);KirstiePetrou(ETConsultant,HEASP);KeniaParsons(SocialProtectionSpecialist,HEASP);HabibaGitay(SeniorClimateChangeSpecialist,SEAU1);ArtessaSaldivar-Sali(SeniorMunicipalEngineer,SEAU1);MitsunoriMotohashi(SeniorEnergySpecialist,IEAD1),SatoshiOgita(SeniorTransportSpecialist,IEAT1);DanielStreet(SeniorCountryOfficer,CEAOP)ElizabethPechan(CountryOfficer,CEAOP);AmyLuinstra(SeniorCountryOfficer,CEGGB);ShabnamHameed(OperationsOfficer,CEGGB);SubrataBarman(OperationsOfficer,CN4UP);BernardoContri(OperationsOfficer,CN4UP);DevaDeSilva(ResidentRepresentativeCEAOP),MilissaDay(SeniorCountryOfficer,CEAOP);ToufiqAhmed(OperationsOfficer,EACNF);andMichelleLee(ProgramAssistant,EACNF).OverallguidanceandsupervisionprovidedbyStephenNdegwa(CountryDirector,EACNF),LarsChristianMoller(PracticeManager,EEAM2),RinkuMurgai(PracticeManager,EEAPV),FilySissoko(PracticeManager,EEAG2),CecileNiang(PracticeManager,EEAF2),NabilaAssaf(Manager,GTFS1).TheteamisgratefulforthesupportofPaulVallely(OperationsManager,EACNF),DegiYoung(ResidentRepresentative,EACNF),LasseMelgaard(ResidentRepresentative,EACFF),AnnetteLeith(ResidentRepresentative,EACSB),FeiDeng,ProgramLeader,IEADR),AneesaArur(ActingProgramLeader,HEAHN),RuchiraKumar(SeniorEconomist,CAPCE),andEugeniuCroitor(RiskManagementOfficer,MIGEC).PeerreviewerswereTobiasHaque(LeadEconomist,ESAMU),SamFreije-Rodriguez,SanduKojocaru,KamerOzdemir,KamiraSaleh,LilianaDoCoutoSousa,SeniorEconomist(EAEPV)andStephenHowes,Director,DevelopmentPolicyCentre(AustralianNationalUniversity).

RegionalVicePresidents:ManuelaV.Ferro(IBRD)

AlfonsoGarciaMora(IFC)

HiroshiMatano(MIGA)

CountryDirector:RegionalDirector:PracticeManagers:TaskTeamLeaders:

StephenN.Ndegwa

HassanZaman

LarsChristianMoller,RinkuMurgai

DavidGould,MatthewWai-Poi

4

SYSTEMATICCOUNTRYDIAGNOSTICUPDATE

Acronyms

AML/CFT

Anti-MoneyLaunderingandCounteringFinancingofTerrorism

IMF

IT

InternationalMonetaryFund

InformationTechnology

APTC

AustralianPacificTrainingCoalition

IPCC

IntergovernmentalPanelon

ASP

AdaptiveSocialProtection

ClimateChange

CARES

CoronavirusAid,Relief,andEconomicSecurity

IUU

kWh

Illegal,Unreported,andUnregulatedkilowatt-hour

CatDDO

CatastropheDeferredDrawdownOption

KIR

Kiribati

CCA

ClimateChangeAdaptation

KYC

KnowYourClient

CIT

CorporateIncomeTax

LMICs

LowerMiddle-IncomeCountries

CLRW

ComeLet’sReadandWrite

MAFF

MinistryofAgricultureandFood,

COFA

CompactofFreeAssociation

ForestryandFisheries

CPA

CitizenParticipatoryAudit

MBs

Megabytes

CROP

CouncilofRegionalOrganizations

inthePacific

MCS

MPO

Monitoring,Control,andSurveillanceWorldTravelandTourismCouncil

DAI

DigitalAdoptionIndex

MSMEs

ConsumerPriceIndex

DRF

DisasterRiskFinance

MTDS

Medium-TermDebtStrategies

DRM

DisasterRiskManagement

MTI

Macroeconomics,Trade,andInvestment

DSA

DebtSustainabilityAnalysis

NCDs

Non-CommunicableDiseases

DSF

DebtSustainabilityFramework

NGOs

NongovernmentOrganizations

EAP

EastAsiaandPacific

NRU

Nauru

ECE

EarlyChildhoodEducation

NSO

NationalStatisticsOffice

ECP

EconomicCitizenshipProgram

ODA

OverseasDevelopmentAssistance

EEZs

ExclusiveEconomicZones

OECD

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operation

EHCI

EarlyHumanCapabilityIndex

andDevelopment

EM-DAT

EmergencyEventsDatabase

PACs

PublicAccountsCommittees

ENSO

ElNinoSouthernOscillation

PACER

PacificAgreementonCloserEconomic

EU

EuropeanUnion

Relations

FCS

FragileAndConflictedSituations

PAE

PartyAllowableEffort

FDI

ForeignDirectInvestment

PALM

PacificAustraliaLabourMobility

FFA

ForumFisheriesAgency

PATA

PacificAsiaTravelAssociation

FSM

FederatedStatesofMicronesia

PCRAFI

PacificCatastropheRiskAssessment

GBs

Gigabytes

andFinancingInitiative

GBV

Gender-BasedViolence

PFM

PublicFinancialManagement

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

PGS

ParticipatoryGuaranteeSystem

GEF

GlobalEnvironmentFacility

PIC

PacificIslandCountries

GRID

GreenResilientandInclusiveDevelopment

PIC-9

NineSmallPacificIslandCountries

HACCP

HazardAnalysisCriticalControlPoint

PIF

PacificIslandForum

HCI

HumanCapitalIndex

PIT

personalincometax

HIES

HouseholdIncomeExpenditureSurvey

PILNA

PacificIslandLiteracyandNumeracy

HLO

HighLevelOutcome

Assessment

ICT

Information,Communication

andTechnology

PLW

PNAU

Palau

PartiestotheNauruAgreement

IDs

Identifications

PNG

PapuaNewGuinea

IFC

InternationalFinanceCorporation

RMI

RepublicofMarshallIslands

5

SYSTEMATICCOUNTRYDIAGNOSTICUPDATE

RRA

RiskandResilienceAssessments

TUV

Tuvalu

RSE

RecognizedSeasonalEmployer

TVET

Technicalandvocationaltraining

SA

SocialAssistance

UHC

UniversalHealthCoverage

SAI

SupremeAuditInstitutions

UMIC

Upper-MiddleIncomeCountries

SAIDI

SystemAverageInterruptionDurationIndex

UNUNCAC

UnitedNations

UnitedNationsConventionagainst

SCD

SystematicCountryDiagnostic

Corruption

SDG

SustainableDevelopmentGoal

UNICEF

UnitedNationsChildren’sFund

SIDS

SmallIslandDevelopingStates

UNWTO

UnitedNationsWorldTourismOrganization

SME

SmalltoMediumEnterprise

US

UnitedStates

SOE

State-OwnedEnterprise

VAT

ValueAddedTax

SPI

StatisticalPerformanceIndex

VDS

VesselDayScheme

SPS

SanitaryandPhytosanitary

VUT

Vanuatu

STEM

Science,Technology,Engineering,

andMathematics

WBWCPFC

WorldBank

WesternandCentralPacificFisheries

SWAS

SeasonalWorkerSuperannuation

Commission

AdministrationService

WCPO

WesternandCentralPacificOcean

SWF

SovereignWealthFund

WDI

WorldDevelopmentIndicators

SWP

SeasonalWorkerProgramme

WEO

WorldEconomicOutlook

TC

TropicalCyclone

WGII

IPCCWorkingGroupII

TFA

TradeFacilitationAgreement

WHO

WorldHealthOrganization

TFIs

TradeFacilitationIndicators

WSM

Samoa

TON

Tonga

WTTC

WorldTravel&TourismCouncil

TSS

TemporarySkillShortage

6

SYSTEMATICCOUNTRYDIAGNOSTICUPDATE

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

7

SYSTEMATICCOUNTRYDIAGNOSTICUPDATE

8

T

heSystematicCountryDiagnostic(SCD)coversagroupofninesmallPacificIslandCountries(PIC-9)—Kiribati,MarshallIslands,theFederatedStatesofMicronesia,Nauru,Palau,Samoa,Tonga,Tuvalu,andVanuatu.ThedocumentupdatesthepreviousSCD,completedin2016,andassessestheemergingchallengesarisingfromtheCOVID-19pandemicandincreasingclimatechangerisks.ItrefreshesthepathwaysidentifiedintheearlierSCDtoreflectunderlyingstructuralconstraintsaswellasemergingimpedimentstodevelopmentnowintheforeground;thepathwaystodevelopmentare:1)increasedeconomicopportunities;2)maximizinghumancapitalanditseconomicreturns;and3)buildingmoreresilientincomesandlivelihoods.AsthePIC-9SCDUpdateshows,whileeachcountryisunique,therearecommonchallengesacrosstheregion.Moreover,developmentprioritiescannotbeviewedinisolation—theyarelargelyinterconnected,withprogressinoneareadependingonprogressinmanyothers.

Small,remoteislandswithinternallydispersedpopulationsformaneconomicgeographythatimposesstructuralconstraintsonboththeprivateandpublicsectors.ThePIC-9countriesconsistofsmallislandsscatteredacrossavastexpanseofthePacificOcean—forexample,Kiribatihasamere120,000peoplespreadovertinyislandsthatspanamarineareaaslargeasIndia.Economiesofscalearelimited,andcostsassociatedwithimports,transportandlogisticsarehigh.ThePIC-9countriesarelargelyleftwithanarrowsetofkeyeconomicactivities—tourism,fishing,andagriculture.Thelimitedeconomicdiversitymeansincreasingvulnerabilitytoexternal

economicanddisasterrisks.ThesechallengestranslateintoacommonsetofmacroeconomicoutcomesnearlyallPIC-9countriessufferfromhighpublicspending,largetradedeficitsrelativetothesizeoftheeconomies,heavyrelianceonexternalflows(suchasforeignaidand/orremittances)tofundthedeficits,andelevatedrisksofdebtdistressduetolowdebt-carryingcapacity.

AnotherconsequenceofthePacificIslands’economicgeographyfurtherhampersdevelopment—frequentandintensenaturaldisasters,furtherexacerbatedbyclimatechange.ThePacificIslandshaveaveryhighexposureandvulnerabilitytotheimpactsofclimatechangeonland,marine,andwaterresourcesandclimate-sensitivelivelihoods.Increasedsealevelsandstormsurgesthreatentoexacerbatecoastalinundation,causeshorelinestoretreat,andincreasesaltwaterintrusionintofreshwateraquifersandpotablewater.Environmentalrisksimpedetheaccumulationofproductiveinfrastructure,putpressureonfiscalbalances,andshiftattentionandresourcesfromotherfundamentaldevelopmentactivities.

Thecombinationofdistanceanddispersionraisesthecostofdeliveringpublicservices,particularlyhealthcareandeducation.Hightransportationcostsmakeimportedinputs,includingmedicalequipmentandsupplies,moreexpensive.Moreover,skillshortagesinthelocallabormarketconstraineffectivepublicservicedelivery.GiventheseuniquePacificcharacteristics,governmentsmustdecidetherangeofservicesofferedineachregion.Theymustalsodecidetowhomtheseserviceswillbeprovided,howtheywillbeprovided,andhowtheywillbefunded.Makingthesedecisions

SYSTEMATICCOUNTRYDIAGNOSTICUPDATE

willofteninvolvedifficulttradeoffsbetweenequity,efficiency,andotherobjectives.

Recenteventshavemadesomeofthesedevelopmentchallengesmorepressingandothersmorenuanced.Byimposingtravelrestrictionsandothermeasures,mostPIC-9countriesmanagedtodelayCOVID-19infectionsuntilthestartof2022.PostponinginfectionsdidnotpreventwidespreaddisruptioninthePIC-9economy,withtourism-dependentcountriessufferingthegreatestblow.Thepandemic’seconomictoll,inadditiontotheinflationspikesseensinceRussia'sinvasionofUkraine,pointedtotheneedforbroadeningeconomicopportunities.COVID-19alsohighlightedthePacificregion’svulnerabilitytofutureexternalshocks—thoserelatedtohealthaswellasthoserelatedtotheglobalimpactsofeconomicshocksandclimatechange.Betterservicedeliverywillbekeytoimprovingthereadinesstorespondtounforeseeneventsthatdisrupttheregionaleconomy.

WithPIC-9countriesneedingtojumpstartgro