PrivateParticipationinInfrastructure(PPI)

2023AnnualReport

Acknowledgement&Disclaimer

ThisreportwaspreparedbyateamcomprisingDeblinaSaha(TaskTeamLeader),SeongHoHong(Co-TaskTeamLeader),ApalaBhattacharya(Consultant)withdesigninputsbyPabloAlfaroChavez.

TheteamisverygratefulforthesupportandguidancereceivedAijazAhmad(ActingPracticeManagerofPPPGroup,InfrastructureFinance,PPPs,andGuaranteesGlobalPractice,WorldBank).Thisreportdescribesprivateparticipationininfrastructure(PPI)trendsasrecordedinthePPIDatabase.Thedatabaserecordsinvestmentinformationforinfrastructureprojectsin137low-andmiddle-incomecountriesglobally.ThePPIDatabaserepresentsthebesteffortsofaresearchteamtocompilepubliclyavailableinformationandshouldnotbeseenasafullycomprehensiveresource.Someprojects,particularlythoseinvolvinglocalandsmall-scaleoperators,tendtobeomittedbecausetheyareusuallynotreportedbymajornewssources,databases,governmentwebsites,andothersourcesusedbythePPIProjectsDatabasestaff.PhotosbyS.

PRIVATEPARTICIPATIONININFRASTRUCTURE(PPI)

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TableofContents

KeyHighlights

1

ExecutiveSummary

3

Overview

4

GeographicSpreadandTrends

7

EastAsiaandthePacific

8

EuropeandCentralAsia

10

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

12

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

14

SouthAsia

16

Sub-SaharanAfrica

18

InvestmentsinInternationalDevelopmentAssociation(IDA)Countries22

SectorTrends

23

Energy

24

ElectricityGeneration

24

Transport

27

Roads

28

Railways

28

Ports

28

Airports

28

E-ChargingStations

28

WaterandSanitation

29

MunicipalSolidWaste

29

InformationandCommunicationTechnology(ICT)

30

FinancingTrends

31

DEFISupportGuarantees

33

FinancingMix

35

PRIVATEPARTICIPATIONININFRASTRUCTURE(PPI)

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III

28%

EastAsiaandthePacificpostedin-vestmentcommitmentsof$51.4bil-

lion,a28%increaseyearonyearanda47%increasefromthepastfive-

yearaverage.

IncreasedinvestmentcommitmentsinChinaandthePhilippineswerethe

maindriversbehindthissurge.

43%

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanreceived$15.8billion,a43%

decreaseyearonyearandadecreaseof27%fromthepreviousfive-year

average.

Thisreductionwaslargelyduetoasub-stantialdecreaseinprivateinvestmentinBrazilandMexico.

40%

SouthAsiareceived$8.2billion,a40%decreaseyearonyearandadecreaseof32%fromthepreviousfive-yearaverage.

TheregionasawholesawdeclinesinPPIinvestments,withtheexceptionofSriLanka.

1

KeyHighlights

Investmentcommitmentsof

$86.0Billionin2023

5%from2022($91.3Billion)

1%fromthepastfive-yearaverage($85.5Billion)

ThenumberofcountrieswithPPIincreasedto68from54countriesin2022

4%

EuropeandCentralAsiasawinvestmentcommitmentsof$4.1billion,a4%increaseyearonyearanda48%decreasefromthepastfive-yearaverage.

ThedeclineininvestmentisattributedtoreducedinvestmentsinRussia,

Ukraine,andTürkiye.

24%

Sub-SaharanAfricareceivedinvest-

mentstotaling$3.5billion.This

markeda24%decreaseyearonyearanda45%decreasefromthepastfive-

yearaverage.

Thedeclinecannotbeattributedtoany

onecountrysinceoverall,multiple

countriesexperienceddecreasesin

investments.

104%

PPIinvestmentsinMiddleEastandNorthAfricaamountedto$2.9billion,a104%increaseyearonyearanda37%increasefromthepastfive-yearaverage.

Egyptwasthelargestcontributortotheregion’sinvestmentsurge.

PRIVATEPARTICIPATIONININFRASTRUCTURE(PPI)

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SectorUpdate

Water&

Sanitation

InvestmentcommitmentsintheWatersec-tordecreasedtoathirdoftheinvestmentlevelsseenin2022,markinga64percentdecreasecomparedtothepastfive-yearav-erage.

Transport

Investmentlevelsinthetransportsectordroppedby76percentcomparedto2022and69percentfromthepastfive-yearaver-age.ChinaandIndia,historicallytheleadingcountriesinroadinvestments,bothreportedasharpdecrease.

SourcesofFinancing

Energy&

Renewables

Energysectoraccountedforalmostthreequar-tersofthetotalglobalPPIinvestments.

Ninety-sevenpercentofelectricitygenerationprojectswererenewable,comparedto94percentin2022andthepreviousfive-yearaverageof93percent.

Municipal

SolidWaste(MSW)

InvestmentcommitmentsinMSWdecreasedto$146millionacross11projectsin2023,fol-lowingapeakin2022whereinvestmentstotaled$796million.Thisalsomarksthelowestvalueinthepastfiveyears.

SourcesofFinancingforInfrastructureProjectswithPrivateParticipationin2023

TotalInvestment

(100%)

SourcesofFinancing

Equity

(25%)

PrivateEquity

(24%)

Commercial

(43%)

Institutional

(1%)

*AllfiguresasapercentageoftotalinvestmentSource:PPIDatabase,WorldBank,asofJanuary2024.

InternationalDebt

(40%)

Multilateral

(14%)

LocalDebt

(35%)

Bilateral

(6%)

PublicEquity

Public

(12%)

Debt

(75%)

(1%)

Intermsoffinancing,forprojectsrecordedinthePPIDatabase,approximately13percentcamefrompublicsources,67percentfromprivatesources,and20percentfromDEFIsources.

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ExecutiveSummary

?Privatesectorinvestmentsininfrastructure,orprivateparticipationininfrastructure(PPI)1in2023

amountedto$86.0billion.Althoughintermsofinvestmentvolume,thisrepresentsadecrease

fromthe$91.3billionlevelsin2022,2023sawasignificantincreaseinthenumberofprojects,jumpingfrom260projectsin2022to322projectsin2023.

?Similartotheincreaseinnumberofprojects,thenumberofcountrieswithPPIinvestmentcommitmentsin2023alsoincreasedto68fromthe54countriesreportedin2022andthepreviousfive-yearaverageof50(2018-2022).Notably,GuineaBissau,Libya,PapuaNewGuinea,S?oToméandPríncipe,andSurinamerecordedtheirfirstPPIinvestmenttransactionsinmorethanadecade.

?Thefivecountrieswiththehighestlevelsofinvestmentin2023asapercentageofnationalGDPwere:CaboVerde,with7.4percentofitsGDPcommittedtoPPIinvestments;LaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic(LaoPDR),with6.2percentandBosniaandHerzegovinawith2.0percent.Inabsoluteterms,China,Brazil,Philippines,India,andPerureceivedthelargestPPIinvestmentsin2023.Thesefivecountriestogetherattracted$66billion,capturingalmost77percentofglobal

PPIinvestment.

?Twenty-sixIDAcountries,comparedtoeighteenin2022,receivedinvestmentcommitmentsamountingto$4.3billionin2023.Thisrepresentedan18percentincreaseininvestmentlevelscomparedtolastyearbuta21percentdecreasefromthepastfive-yearaverage.

?Ofalltheprojectsrecordedin2023,52percentwereprimarilysponsoredbyforeignentities,markinganincreasefromthe44percentrecordedin2022.ICT(78percent)andenergy(53percent)arethesectorswiththehighestnumberofPPIprojectsbeingsponsoredbyforeignentities.Ontheotherhand,themunicipalsolidwastesector(18percent)andwatersector(26percent)predominantlyhavelocalsponsors.

?Energysawathreefoldincreaseininvestmentlevelsfrom2022,withmostofthisincreaseoccurringintheEAPregion.Meanwhile,investmentlevelsinthetransportsectordroppedsubstantiallyowingtoasharpdeclineinroadinvestmentsinChinaandIndia,althoughportssubsectorinvestmentsdoubled.ICTinvestmentsincreasedalmostfourfoldreaching$7.8billionacross52projectsin35countries;whilewaterandmunicipalsolidwastesectorsreportedadecline.

?TherewasasignificantincreaseinDEFI2participationininfrastructureprojectsin2023,with127projectsreceivingsomeformofDEFIsupport.Thisaccountedfor40percentofallPPIprojects,markingasignificantincreasefrom26percentin2021and18percentin2022.

?Withrespecttofinancing,approximately67percentcamefromprivatesources,20percentfromDEFIsources,and13percentfrompublicsources.Incomparisonto2022,privatesourcesin-creasedby18percentfrom50percent,whilepublicsourcesdecreasedby22percentfrom35percent.DEFI’scontribution(intheformofloan)toPPIprojectsin2023remainedrelativelyunchangedfromthepreviousyear.

1Theterm“investment”referstoprivateinvestmentcommitmentsatthetimeoffinancialcloseinenergy,transport,waterandsanitation,municipalsolidwaste,andICT-backboneprojectsservingthepublicinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,includingnaturalgastransmissionanddistribution,butexcludingoilandgasextraction.

2DEFI,forthepurposesofthisreport,referstomultilateralinstitutionsandbilateralagencieswithadevelopmentmandate,aswellasexportcreditagencieswithamandatetosupportdomesticbusinessesinpursuinginvestmentsabroad.Henceforth,inthisreport,thetermbilateralswillincludebilateralinstitutionsaswellasexportcreditagencies.

PRIVATEPARTICIPATIONININFRASTRUCTURE(PPI)

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Overview

PPIinvestmentin2023amountedto$86.0billion,representing0.2percentoftheGDPofalllow-andmiddle-incomecountries($38.8trillion).Althoughthisrepresentsaslightdecreasefrom$91.3billionin2022,totalcommitmentsin2023stillmarginallyexceededthepreviousfive-yearaverage(2018-2022)of$85.5billion.Intermsofnumberofprojects,2023sawanotablejumpfrom260projectsin2022to322projectsin2023,whichwasalsoanincreasefromthepreviousfive-yearaverageof305projects.

Figure1:InvestmentCommitmentsinInfrastructureProjectswithPrivateParticipationinLow-andMid-IncomeCountries,2014–2023

In2022$billion

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023

PPIInvestmentsNo.ofProjects

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1

In2023,thenumberofcountrieswithPPIinvestmentcommitmentsincreasedto68,surpassingthe54countriesreportedin2022andthepreviousfive-yearaverageof50(2018-2022).Sincethepandemic,therehasbeenacontinuousincreaseinthenumberofcountriesreportingPPItransactions.Notably,GuineaBissau,Libya,PapuaNewGuinea,S?oToméandPríncipe,andSurinamerecordedtheirfirstPPIinvestmenttransactionsinmorethanadecade.GuineaBissau,Libya,andPapuaNewGuinea,whichareFragile,Conflict-affected,andVulnerable(FCV)countries,reportedonePPIprojecteachin2023.

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DomesticVersusForeignSponsors

Intermsofthenumberofprojects,52percentofPPIprojectswereprimarilysponsoredbyforeignentities,markinganincreasefromthe44percentrecordedin2022(PleaseseeFigure2).Infact,thisisthefirsttimesincethepandemicthatforeign-sponsoredPPIProjectshaveoutnumberedthelocalones.Intermsofinvestmentvolume,26percentoftheinvestmentscamefromforeignsponsors,whichisconsistentwiththatofpreviousyears.ForeignshareofPPIinvestmentsissmaller(comparedtoforeignsharebynumberofprojects)owingtoasignificantportionoflocallysponsoredPPIprojects,particularlyinChina,exceededthebillion-dollarmarkintermsofinvestmentvolume.ExcludingChina,50percentPPIinvestmentsarefromforeignsponsors.

Figure2:ProportionofInternationaltoLocalSponsorsinLow-andMid-incomeCountrieswithPrivateInvestmentCommitments,2023

France

UnitedStates

UnitedArabEmirates

China

Spain

ThailandHongKong

ColombiaIndia

Bahrain

Rest

Foreign

2

Local

Theregionswiththehighestcontributionfromforeigninvestorsin2023weretheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)andSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA).In2023,all14PPIprojectsintheMENAregionweresponsoredbyforeigncompanies,whileinSSA83percentofallPPIprojectsweresponsoredbyforeigncompanies.Conversely,EastAsiaandPacific(EAP)andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(LAC)werethe

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regionswithmostprojectsbeingsponsoredbylocalcompanies.InEAP,onlyone-fourthofitsPPIprojectsweresponsoredbyforeigncompanies,whileinLAC,thefigurestoodat41percent.

ICTandenergyarethesectorswiththehighestnumberofPPIprojectsbeingsponsoredbyforeignentities.Ontheotherhand,themunicipalsolidwastesectorandwatersectorpredominantlyhavelocalsponsors.Thisislikelyduetothelocalnatureoftheseservicesandthenecessityforspecificregionalknowledge,whichlocalfirmscanmorereadilyprovide.

Thereareafewcountrieswherelocallysponsoredprojectsfaroutnumberedthosesponsoredbyforeigncompanies.ThesecountriesincludeBrazil,India,thePhilippines,andChina.

AmongstforeignsponsorsofPPIprojects,Francewastheleadingcountry,sponsoringthelargestvolumeofprojectswithatotalinvestmentof$2.1billionacross14projects.ItwasfollowedbytheUnitedStates,withinvestmentsamountingto$2.0billionacross14projects,andtheUnitedArabEmirates(UAE),with$1.9billioninvestedacross10projects.SUEZ/EngiefromFranceundertookseverallargewaterandenergyprojectsintheMENAregion,whileEDFEnergiesNouvelleswasprominentinpowergenerationprojectsinSSA.FromtheUAE,MasdarsponsoredseveralsignificantpowerprojectsinUzbekistan,whereasDPWorld,anEmiratimultinationallogisticscompany,financedportprojectsinTanzaniaandIndia.IntheLACregion,US-basedcompanieslikeAtlasRenewableEnergyandNewFortressEnergywereparticularlyactiveintheenergysector.

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GeographicSpreadand

Trends

PPIinvestmentsdeclinedinmostregions,withthenotableexceptionsoftheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)andEastAsiaandPacific(EAP).MENAwith$2.9billioncontinueditsgrowthtrajectory,withPPIinvestmentlevelsalmostdoublingfrom2022levelsat$1.4billion.EAPregionreturnedtopre-pandemiclevelsofinvestmentafterathree-yearlagastheregionrecoveredfromtheeffectsofthepandemic.InSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA),at$3.5billion,therewasa24percentofdeclinefrom$4.5billionin2022:WesternandCentralAfrica(AFW)reportedaslightdropof36percent,whileEasternandSouthernAfrica(AFE)maintaineditsinvestmentlevels.Meanwhile,EuropeandCentralAsia(ECA)withinvestmentcommitmentsof$4.1billioncontinuedtounderperformincomparisontopre-pandemicbutsawanincreaseininvestmentlevelsfrom$4.0billionin2022.InvestmentlevelsinSouthAsia(SAR)declinedto$8.3billionfrom$13.7billionin2022.

AsapercentageofregionalGDP,LACremainedthehighestinPPIinvestmentin2023at0.3percent(SeeTable1)butexperiencedasharp42percentdropat$15.8billioncomparedtothepreviousyearof$24.3billion.Meanwhile,EAPreportedhigherlevelsofinvestmentcommitmentsat$51.4billionthanin2022at$43.4billion,cominginat0.24percent.SARreportedPPIinvestmentof0.19percentofGDPin2023,whileMENAincreasedinvestmentlevelsto0.17percentofregionalGDP.ECAhadthelowestlevelsofPPIinvestmentsasapercentageofGDPat0.10percent.

Table1:RegionalPPI(2023)inTermsofRegionalGDP(ExcludingHigh-income),2023

Region

PPI($,millions)

NumberofProjects

PPI/GDP

EastAsiaandthePacific

51,445.17

73

0.24%

EuropeandCentralAsia

4,139.49

35

0.10%

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

15,809.68

102

0.30%

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

2,888.39

14

0.17%

SouthAsia

8,258.91

32

0.19%

Sub-SaharanAfrica

3,465.26

66

0.17%

1

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Inabsoluteterms,China,Brazil,thePhilippines,India,andPerureceivedthelargestPPIinvestmentsin2023.Thesefivecountriestogetherattracted$66.0billion,cap-turingalmost77percentofglobalPPIinvestment(SeeFigure3).

Brazil,China,andIndiahaveconsistentlybeenamongthetopfivePPIcountriesfordecades.Together,thesecountriesaccountfor57percentofthetotalPPIoverthepastfiveyears(2019-2023).Excludingthesethreecountries,privateinvestmentcommitmentswererecordedat$30.4billionin2023.Thismarksa17percentin-creasefrom2022buta22percentdecreasefromthefive-yearaverage.

Thefivecountrieswiththehighestlevelsofinvestmentin2023asapercentageofnationalGDPwere:CaboVerde,with7.4percentofitsGDPcommittedtoPPIinvestments;LaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic(LaoPDR),with6.2percentandBosniaandHerzegovinawith2.0percent.

Figure3:InvestmentCommitmentsinInfrastructureProjectswithPrivateParticipationInLow-andMid-IncomeCountries,byCountry,2023

Peru,3%

India,8%

Philippines,9%

China,47%

Brazil,10%

3

EastAsiaandthePacific(EAP)

In2023,EAPregionreceivedatotalof$51.4billionininvestmentsacross73projects,representinganincreaseof28percentfrom2022levelsandmarkingahealthyrecoveryfrom2020and2021,wheninvestmentlevelswereparticularlylow.Therecoveryfrompre-pandemicinvestmentlevelscontinued,withamountsreaching47percenthigherthan

PRIVATEPARTICIPATIONININFRASTRUCTURE(PPI)

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In2022$billion

thepreviousfive-yearaverage(2018-2022)of$35.1billion.However,thenumberofprojectsintheregionremainsatitslowestinthepastdecade.InEAP,therewerefourprojectswhosesizeswerelargerthanfourbillionUSdollars.ThisledtoanincreasedaverageprojectsizecomparedtopreviousyearsforEAP.

ThehighinvestmentcommitmentsinChinawerethemaindriverbehindtheregion’srecovery.Chinareceived$40.4billioninPPIinvestmentcommitments,95percentofwhichwerechanneledacross24energyprojects.ThePhilippinesreportedthesecond-highestPPIcommitmentsintheEAPregion.PPIinvestmentsinthePhilippineswerefairlyevenlydistributedacrossallPPIsectors,withtheICTsectorreceivingthehighestamount.LaoPDRalsoclosedanotablecross-borderproject:the600MWMonsoonWindPowerProjectwith,anassociated500-kilovoltsubstation,anda500-kilovolttransmissionline.ThegeneratedelectricityisexpectedtobesoldtoVietnamElectricity(EVN).

Figure4:InvestmentCommitmentsinInfrastructureProjectswithPrivateParticipationinLow-andMiddle-IncomeCountriesinEAP,2014-2023,andPPISharesbyCountryin2023

Indonesia,

3.4%

0

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023

TotalInvestmentsNumberofProjects

Philippines,14.7%

China,78.5%

4

40

70

50

30

60

20

10

PRIVATEPARTICIPATIONININFRASTRUCTURE(PPI)

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OthercountrieswithPPIinvestmentsintheregionincludeIndonesia,Cambodia,Thailand,Malaysia,Vietnam,andPapuaNewGuinea(SeeTable2).

Table2:InvestmentCommitmentsandNumberofInfrastructureProjectswithPrivateParticipationinEAPbyCountries,2023

Country

PPIinvestmentsin2023

NumberofProjects

China

40,383

37

Philippines

7,574

17

Indonesia

1,762

8

LaoPDR

959

1

Cambodia

450

2

Malaysia

131

3

Vietnam

95

2

Thailand

90

2

PapuaNewGuinea

1

1

Total

51,445

73

2

EuropeandCentralAsia(ECA)

In2023,theECAregionsawinvestmentcommitmentsof$4.1billionacross35projects,afourpercentincreasefrom$4.0billionof2022.However,itisstilla48percentdecreasefromthepastfive-yearaverage.Thenumberofprojectsmorethandoubledfrom15in2022to35in2023.

PRIVATEPARTICIPATIONININFRASTRUCTURE(PPI)

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In2022$billion

Figure5:InvestmentCommitmentsinInfrastructureProjectswithPrivateParticipationinLow-andMiddle-IncomeCountriesinECA,2014-2023,andPPISharesbyCountryin2023

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023

TotalInvestmentsNumberofProjects

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Bosniaand

Herzegovina,

12.0%

Bulgaria,12.8%

Uzbekistan,

5

38.9%

UzbekistanledinvestmentsintheECAregionwith$1.6billionacrosssixprojects,thelargestprojectbeingtheAndijansolarPVplant,valuedat$400million.Ofthesixprojectsthatachievedfinancialclosureinthecountry,allhadforeignsponsors.ThemajorityweresponsoredbytheUnitedArabEmirates,whileSaudiArabiaandChinaeachsponsoredoneproject.Bulgariawasthesecond-largestcontributortotheregion’sinvestmentcommitments,with$532millioninvestedacross13projects.Eightofthese13projectswereinthemunicipalsolidwastesector.

OtherECAcountrieswithPPItransactionswereAlbania,Armenia,Azerbaijan,BosniaandHerzegovina,Kazakhstan,KyrgyzRepublic,Serbia,andTürkiye(SeeTable3).RussiaandUkrainecontinuedtonotreportanyPPIinvestmentcommitmentsfortwoyears.

PRIVATEPARTICIPATIONININFRASTRUCTURE(PPI)

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Table3:InvestmentCommitmentsandNumberofInfrastructureProjectswithPrivateParticipationinECA,2023

Country

PPIinvestmentsin2023

NumberofProjects

Uzbekistan

1,612

6

Bulgaria

532

13

BosniaandHerzegovina

495

2

Türkiye

434

4

Azerbaijan

348

1

Kazakhstan

219

4

Albania

187

2

Serbia

169

1

KyrgyzRepublic

118

1

Armenia

26

1

Total

4,139

35

3

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(LAC)

In2023,theLACregionrecorded$15.8billionacross102projects,markinga43percentdropininvestmentlevelsfrom2022anda27percentdropfromthepastfive-yearaverage.Thisdecreaseissignificant,withtheinvestmentlevelsmirroringthoseseenduringthepandemicyearsof2020and2021,whichwere$17.0billionand$11.1billion,respectively.ThisreductionwaslargelyduetoasubstantialdecreaseinprivateinvestmentinBrazilandMexico.Brazilreportedonlyathirdoftheinvestmentcommitmentscomparedto2022,with$8.2billionacross50projects.Despitethis,Brazilrankedsecondglobally,contributing9.5percenttototalinvestmentcommitmentsin2023andaccountingfor52percentoftheLACregion’stotalinvestmentcommitments.Peruwasthesecondlargestcontributortotheregion’sinvestmentcommitments,with$2.7billioninvestedacross12projects.Nineofthesetwelveprojectswereintheenergysectorand,twowereinICT,andonewasinthewatersector.

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In2022$billion

Figure6:InvestmentCommitmentsinInfrastructureProjectswithPrivateParticipationinLow-andMiddle-IncomeCountriesinLAC,2014-2023,andPPISharesbyCountryin2023

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2014201520162017201820192020202120222023

TotalInvestmentsNumberofProjects

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Brazil,51.7%

Peru,17.5%

Argentina,

6

10.1%

Traditionallyakeyplayerintheregion,Mexicoreportedinvestmentcommitmentsofonly$245millionacrossfourprojectsin2023.Despiteseveralgovernmentinitiativesaimedatattractingprivatesectorinvestmen