CLIMATECHANGEISDRIVINGPEOPLEINTOARMEDGROUPS

FIVETAKEAWAYS

(JULY2024)

Quiteliterallyahottopic,climate-securityisamongthekeyconcernsoftheinternationalcommunitytoday.Bynow,itiswellestablishedthatclimatechangeplaysaroleindrivingarmedconflict,butthequestionremains:howexactly?

Thegeneralanswer:It’scomplicated.Thereisnodirectlinkbywhichhighertemperaturesorchangesinrainfallautomaticallyleadtoviolence.Rather,theclimate-conflict-nexusisdrivenbyindirectpathwaysandmediatingfactorsthatinfluenceiforhowtheselinkagesplayout.Ontopofthat,asclimatechangemanifestsdifferentlyacross–andevenwithin–regions,itsintermediateeffectsonconflictonsetorconflictdynamicscanvaryaswell.Broadly,heavystorms,torrentialrains,floods,wildfires,aswellasslow-onsetstressorslikedroughts,shiftingseasonalrainfallanddesertificationcanfuelexistingvulnerabilities,undermininghumansecurityandincreasingtheriskof–potentiallylarge-scale–armedorcriminalviolence.

Importantly,byputtingastrainonnaturalresourcesandtheagriculturallivelihoodsthatdependonthem,climatechangeiserodingsocio-economicresilienceinoftenalreadyfragileregions.Compoundedbyweakgovernanceandlimitedcopingcapacities,thispresentsabreedinggroundforcompetitionoverwaterandarableland–andforarmedgroupstorecruitfromhard-hitcommunitiesthatlackeconomicalternativesandeffectivedisputeresolution.Armedgroupscanalsoexploitresourcescarcitybycontrollingaccesstolandandwaterways,gainingafootholdinlocalcommunities.Otherfactors,suchasclimate-induceddisplacementorfoodinsecurityandtheireffectsoninequalityandsocialcohesion,onlyaddtothepressure.

Acrossseveralcasestudies,MEAC’suniquelocal-leveldatashedslightonsomeoftheselinks.Insurveyswithcommunitymembers,leaders,aswellasformerandcurrentarmedgroupassociates,fivekeyfindingsstandout:

CLIMATECHANGEISWIDELYFELT

IntheNorthWestofNigeria,forexample,78percentof(adult)respondentsreportedsignificantchangesinrainfall,heat,andrelatedstressorssuchasdroughtsorfloodscomparedtowhentheywereyounger(1).Amongcommunitymembersin

Colombia

,itwas85percent(2).

1.In2024,adultrespondents(N=2555)wereasked:“Comparedtowhenyouwereyounger,doyouthinktherehavebeensignificantchangesinrainfall,temperatures,orthefrequencyandintensityofdroughtsorfloods?”-Yes/No/Refusedtoanswer.

2.In2021,respondents(N=2460)wereasked:“Inyourlifetime,doyouthinktherehavebeengreatchangesinrainfall,temperatures,orweathereventssuchasfloodsanddroughts?”-Yes/No/Refusedtoanswer.

LIVESANDLIVELIHOODSARETHREATENED

Ineachsurveylocation,peoplestruggleintheirfarming,herding,orfishingbecauseofthis.IntheLakeChadBasinregion,manysaidthatthey,orpeopletheyknow,werehavinglongstandingdifficultiesmakingalivingfromagriculturebecauseofspecificclimaticchanges(28percentofrespondentsinNorthEastNigeria,61percentinCameroon,78percentinChad,27percentinNiger;seenote3).

CLIMATE-RELATEDLIVELIHOODCHALLENGESAREPUSHINGPEOPLEINTOARMEDGROUPS

Manyrespondentsconfirmthatarmedgroupscanandaretakingadvantageofthesegrievances(aprominentexampleofwhichwere

ISIL’s

targetedrecruitmentcampaigns

indrought-strickenvillagesacrossIraqandSyria).IntheNorthEastofNigeria,ofthosesurveyrespondentsacknowledgingclimate-relatedagriculturaldifficulties,16percentsaidtheyknewsomeonewhojoinedBokoHarambecauseofthis(18percentinCameroon,37percentinChad,57percentinNiger;seenote4).ThenumbersinNigeriaareevenhigherforassociatesofcommunitysecuritygroupssuchastheCJTF.Notably,climate-relateddifficultiesnotonlyseemtoimpactrecruitmentintoinsurgentgroupsbutareseenbythepublicasprecipitatingashifttowardsallkindsofconflictactors.

Q:[OFTHOSEACKNOWLEDGINGCLIMATE-RELATEDDIFFICULTIES]:DOYOUKNOWOFANYONEWHOJOINED[NON-STATEARMEDGROUP]BECAUSEOFTHESEDIFFICULTIES?

3.Between2021and2022,respondents(N=764inCameroon,729inChad,463inNiger,2847inNigeria)wereasked“Beforetheconflictcametoyourcommunity,fromwhatyouhaveheard,didyouoranyoneyouknowexperiencedifficultiesmakingalivingfromfarming,herdingorfishingbecauseofanyofthefollowing?Pleaseselectallthatapply.”-Changesinaveragetemperature/Changesinaveragerainfall/Naturaldisasters/Changesinthelakeorthecultivablelands(polders)[optioninChad,Cameroon,Nigeronly]/Noneoftheabove/Refusedtoanswer.

4.InChad(N=567),Cameroon(N=463),andNiger(N=126),respondentswereasked:“DoyouknowofanyonewhojoinedBokoHarambecauseofthesedifficulties?”-Yes/No/Refusedtoanswer.InNigeria(N=826):“Doyouknowofanyonewhojoined[Jamā'atAhlas-Sunnah(alsoknownasBokoHaram)/theCJTF,YanGora]oranothergrouplikethisbecauseofthesedifficulties?”-Yes/No/Refusedtoanswer.

EX-ASSOCIATESTHEMSELVESSAYSO

Uniquely,MEAChasfirst-handreportingonthisclimate-drivenrecruitment.OutofformerBokoHaramassociatesintheNorthEastofNigeriawhoacknowledgedclimate-relateddifficulties,11percentreportedthatthisplayedaroleintheirrecruitment.InCameroon,ChadandNiger,thiswas7percent,28percentand51percent,respectively(5).InColombia,43percentofsurveyedex-combatantsfromdifferentarmedgroupssaidthattheyhadjoinedbecauseofeconomicdifficultiesgenerally,and6percentspecificallyattributedthosetoclimatechange(6).

Q:[OFTHOSEWHOACKNOWLEDGINGCLIMATE-RELATEDDIFFICULTIES]:WERETHESE

DIFFICULTIESAMONGTHEREASONSWHYYOUCAMETOBEWITH[NON-STATEARMEDGROUP]?

EVERYSTORYLOOKSDIFFERENT

Whileasizeablenumberofex-combatantssaidclimate-relatedchallengesdrovethemtoalignwithanarmedgroup,theirindividualpathsdiffersignificantly.Thismakessensegiventhesubregional(andoftenevenlocal)variationsofclimaticimpacts–asillustratedbythestoriesofformerBokoHaramassociatesinNigeria(n.b.notdepictedhere).

“Flood(1)”byImmanuelAfolabi,CCBY-NC-ND20

Myfarmwasaffectedbyflooding.Beforetheinsurgency,IwasfarminginthehillsGwozainBorno.WhenBokoHarammembersoccupiedmycommunity,theybuilttheirbaseonthemountainandthatstoppedmefromhavingaccesstogoodfarmland.Heavyrainfallandfloodingmadeitimpossibletofarmonthelandsavailabletous.Tobeabletoaccessgoodland,onehadtojointhem.

5.Formerarmedgroupassociateswhoacknowledgedclimate-relateddifficulties(N=222inCameroon,243inChad,40inNiger,322inNigeria)wereasked:“Werethesedifficultiesamongthereasonsforwhyyoucametobewith[non-statearmedgroup]?”-Yes/No/Refusedtoanswer.

6.In2022,respondents(N=134)wereasked:“Whatarethemainreasonswhyyoujoined[non-statearmedgroup]?Pleaseselectallthatapply.”-Tofightagainstthestate/Toachievestructuralchangesforthecountry/Becauseofdomesticviolence/Forstatus,power,and/orweapons/Toprotectmyfamilyorcommunity/Iwasforced/Forrevenge/Duetoincomegenerationdifficultiescausedbychangesinclimateortheenvironment/Other(s)/Irefusetoanswer.Althoughthereisnodirectevidence,itispossiblethatrespondentswhoseeconomicconditionsareaffectedbyclimatechangechoseonlythegeneral'economicdifficulties'option.

Ihadnochoice.ThecropsIplantedwerespoiledduelackofenoughrainfall,anddidnotyieldanything.Mylivestockwasdyingbecausethere

werenograssforthemtofeedonandnowaterintheriversforthemtodrink.MyhealthwasalsoatriskbecauseIwasn’tabletogetenoughfoodtoeatduetoalltheseproblems.ThisiswhyIjoined.

Atthattime,sandstormsbecamemorefrequentandmorepowerful…therewasasandstormthatremovedtheroofoffmyhouseanddestroyedit.

LifebecamereallyhardasaresultofbeingdisplacedandIjoinedthegroupwhentheopportunitycamealong,thinkingmylifewouldbebetter.

CLIMATE-SENSITIVEPEACEBUILDINGAND

CONFLICT-SENSITIVECLIMATEADAPTATION

Storiesliketheseandthequantitativefindingsthatreinforcethemcallformoreattentiontohowclimatechangeisinfluencinginvolvementinconflict.Withaviewtoeffectiveprevention,theyalsocallfortailoredresponsesthattakelocalvariationsintoaccount,especiallyinareaswhereagricultureisthesolesourceofincomeandsubsistence.

Thisisequallykeyforsupportingexitsfromconflictandpreventingrecidivism.Peoplecomingoutofarmedgroupswilllikelyfindtheirlandasdr