CFA一級培訓項目

講師：Cherie

cghM祀，歷84s內(nèi)

TopicWeightingsinCFALevelI

SessionNO.ContentWeightings

StudySession1EthicalandProfessionalStandards15-20

StudySession2-3QuantitativeMethods8-12

StudySession4-5Economics8-12

StudySession6-9FinancialReportingandAnalysis13-17

StudySession10-11CorporateFinance8-12

StudySession12-13EquityInvestments10-12

StudySession14-15FixedIncome10-12

StudySession16Derivatives5-8

StudySession17AlternativeInvestments5-8

StudySession18-19PortfolioManagement5-8

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(?)Framework>R12TopicsinDemandand

SupplyAnalysis

>R13TheFirmandMarket

EconomicsStructures

>R14AggregateOutput,Prices,

andEconomicGrowth

>R15UnderstandBusinessCycles

>R16MonetaryandFiscalPolicy

>R17InternationalTradeand

CapitalFlows

>R18CurrencyExchangeRates

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Reading

12

TopicsinDemandandSupplyAnalysis

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1.DemandandSupply

Framework2.Elasticity

3.SubstitutionandIncomeEffects

4.Profit

5.Product

6.Revenue

7.Cost

8.ProfitMaximization

9.BreakevenPointandShutdownPoint

10.EconomiesandDiseconomiesofscale

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?1.1DemandandSupply

Demandfunction:

Qgas=12.34-15Pgas

InverseDemandfunction:

Pgas=8.23-0.667Qgas

Q(gallons)

Supplyfunction:

Qtables=-426+1-5Ptables

Inversesupplyfunction:

=

Ptables284+0.667Qtab|es

.4

Q(tables)

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?1.2MarketEquilibrium

>Equilibriumpriceandtheequilibriumquantity

?Whenhaveamarketsupplyandmarketdemandcurveforagood,we

cansolveforthepriceatwhichthequantitysuppliedequalsthe

quantitydemanded.Wedefinethisastheequilibriumpriceandthe

equilibriumquantity.

?E:marketequilibrium.Attheprice,thequantityofsupply=thequantity

ofdemand

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?1.3DemandandSupplyCurves

>Movementsalongdemandandsupplycurves.

?ChangesinquantitydemandedorsuppliedofproductXcausedby

changesinmarketpriceoftheproductX.

>Shiftsindemandandsupplycurves.

?ChangesinquantitydemandedorsuppliedofproductXcausedby

otherindependentvariablesotherthanthechangesinmarketpricethe

productX.

/Forexample:Achangeoftheincome;Achangeofthepricefor

substitutegoodsorcomplementarygoods.

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?1.4ConsumerSurplus

>Thedifferencebetweenthetotalvaluetoconsumersoftheunitsofagood

thattheybuyandthetotalamounttheymustpayforthoseunitsiscalled

consumersurplus.

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?2.Elasticity

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?2.1.1PriceElasticityofDemand

>Definition

?Ameasureofhowsensitivechangesinquantitydemandedtoachange

inprice,anditisexpressedastheratioofpercentagechangesineach

variable

?Thepriceelasticityofdemand:

△0

Ed_%A2；_0；「以產(chǎn)、

&%APMIAPJI

where:x~r-1、八

.changeinvalueendingvalue-beginningvalue

Percentchange=-------------------=----------------------------------------

averagevalue(endingvalue+beginningvalue)

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?2.1.2PriceElasticityofDemand

>Priceelasticity

■Whenelasticity=l:demandissaidtobeunitelastic,orunitaryelastic.

?Whenelasticity>1,thedemandissaidtobeelastic.

?Whenelasticity<1,thedemandissaidtobeinelastic.

?Perfectlyelastic

/Demandcurveishorizontalatsomegivenprice.Itimpliesthateven

aminutepriceincreasewillreducedemandtozero.

?Perfectlyinelastic

/Demandcurveisverticdl,quantitydeniciridedisnotsensitiveto

priceatall.

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?2.1.3PriceElasticityofDemand

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?2.1.4FactorsthatInfluencetheElasticityofDemand

>Availabilityofsubstitutes

?Iftherearedosesubstitutesforthegood,thenifitspriceriseseven

slightly,aconsumerwouldtendswitchtothelesscostlysubstitute.

>Therelativeamountofincomespentonthegood

?Ifconsumerstendtospendaverysmallportionoftheirbudgetona

good,theirdemandtendstobelesselasticthaniftheyspendavery

largepartoftheirincome.

>Timeperiodsincethepricechange

?Formostgoodsandservices,thedemandismuchmoreelastic

thantheshort-rundemand.

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?2.2Cross-PriceElasticityofDemand

>Cross-priceelasticity:ItmeasureshowsensitivethedemandforgoodXis

tochangesinthepriceofsomeothergood,Y,holdingallotherthings

constant.

Ed

號%AP

?Iftwogoods,XandY,haspositivecross-priceelasticity,thegoodsX

andYarereferredtoassubstitutes.

JExample:penandpencil.

?Iftwogoods,XandY,hasnegativecross-priceelasticity,thegoodsX

andYarereferredtoascomplements.

/Example:pencilanderaser.

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?2.3IncomeElasticityofDemand

>Incomeelasticityofdemandisdefinedasthepercentagechangeinquantity

demanded(%A^)dividedbythepercentagechangeinincome(%4D,

holdingallotherthingsconstant,asshown:

_%A。；

%AZ

>Positiveincomeelasticitymeansthatasincomerises,thedemandforthe

goodalsorises.

?Goodswithpositiveincomeelasticityarecalled"normalgoods”.

/Luxuries:highpositiveelasticity(>1).

/Necessities:normalbuthavelowerelasticity(between0and1).

>Negativeincomeelasticitymeansthatasincomerises,thedemandforthe

gooddecreases.

?Goodswithnegativeincomeelasticityarecalled"inferior"goods.

/Rice,potatoes,orlessexpensivecutsofmeat.

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?3.1NormalandInferiorGoods

>Thesubstitutioneffectforgoodswillalwaysbepositive.

?Achangeinthepriceofagoodwillalwaysbeinthedirectionofbuying

moreatalowerpriceorlessatahigherprice.

>Theincomeeffectforgoodsdependsonthenatureofthegoods.

?Fornormalgood,itsincomeeffectispositive,andtheincomeeffect

reinforcesthesubstitutioneffect,bothleadingtoanegativelysloped

demandcurve.

?Forinferiorgood,itsincomeeffectisnegative,andtheincomeeffect

andthesubstitutioneffectworkinoppositedirections.

Theincomeeffecttendstomitigatethesubstitutioneffect

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“3.2GiffenGoodsandVeblenGoods

>Giffengoods:

?Incomeeffect(inferiorgoods)>Substitutioneffect

?Demandcurvehaspositiveslope

>Veblengoods(Conspicuousgoods):

?Consumercannottrulyvalueagooduntilthepriceisknown.

?Priceisusedbytheconsumertosignalthestatusinthesociety.

?Highprice->highvalue今highdemandquantity(extremely)

/Haveapositivelyslopeddemandcurve(eg:luxuryautomobileorvery

expensivepieceofjewelry)firstly.

/Butwhenpriceincreases,theslopemaybenegative.

>TwoimportantdistinctionsbetweenGiffengoodsandVeblengoods.

?FirstGiffengoodsareinferiorgoods(negativeincomeeffect),whileVeblen

goodscertainlyarenot.

?Second,theexistenceofGiffengoodsistheoreticallysupportedbyourrules

ofconsumerchoice,whiletheexistenceofVeblengoodsisnot.

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Accountingprofit

?Accountingprofit=totalrevenutotalaccounting(explicit)cost

Economicprofit=totalrevenuee-totaleconomiccosts

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?5.Total,Average,MarginalProducts

>Totalproduct(TP):sumoftheoutputfromallinputsduringatimeperiod;

usuallyillustratedasthetotaloutput(Q)usinglaborquantity(L)

>Averageproduct(AP):totalproductdividedbythequantityofagiven

input;measuredastotalproductdividedbythenumberofworkerhours

usedatthatoutputlevel(Q/L)

>Marginalproduct(MP):theamountofadditionaloutputresultingfrom

usingonemoreunitofinputassumingotherinputsarefixed;measuredby

takingthedifferenceintotalproductanddividingbythechangeinthe

quantityoflabor(AQ/AL).

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“LawofDiminishingReturns

>Thelawofdiminishingmarginalreturnsstatesthatasmoreandmore

resources(suchaslabor)aredevotedtoaproductionprocess,theyincrease

outputbutataneverdecreasingrate.

?6.Total,Average,andMarginalRevenue

>Totalrevenue(TR)foranyfirmthatchargesasinglepricetoallcustomers

iscalculatedaspricemultipliedbyquantitysold,orTR=JP*Q.

>Averagerevenue(AR)isequaltototalrevenuedividedbythequantity

sold,AR=TR/Q.

>Marginalrevenue(MR)istheincreaseintotalrevenuefromsellingone

moreunitofagoodorservice.

>Underperfectcompetition

?Theindividualfirmisapricetaker.

?Itmusttakethemarketpriceofitsoutputasgiven,soitfacesa

perfectlyelastic,horizontaldemandcurve.

?Thefirm'saveragerevenue(AR),orrevenueperunit,isalsoequalto

priceperunit.MR=Price=AR

>Underimperfectcompetition

?Firmthatfacesanegativelyslopeddemandcurveispricesearchers.

?Totalrevenue(TR)ismaximizedwhenMR=O.

?TherelationshipbetweenMR,Bandpriceelasticityofdemand:

MR=P[1-1/Ep]

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?7.LongRunandShortRun

>Longterm&shortterm

?Theshortterm/runisdefinedasatimeperiodforwhichquantitiesof

someresourcesarefixed,suchasbuildings,technologyand

equipment.

?Thetechnologyofproductionisfixedintheshortrunandisaconstraint

onafirm/sabilitytoincreaseproduction.

?Typically,economiststreatgborandrawmaterialsasvariableinthe

shortrus,holdingplantsize,capitalequipment,andtechnology

constant.Allofthesefactorsbecomevariableinthelongrun.

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?Cost

>Totalcost=totalfixedcost+totalvariablecost

>Marginalcost=changeintotalcost/changeinoutput

>Averagefixedcost=totalfixedcost/output

>Averagevariablecost=totalvariablecost/output

>Averagecost=totalcost/output=AFC+AVC

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“Total,AveragefMarginal,Fixed,Variablecosts

AverageandMarginalCosts

?AFCslopesdownward.

?MCdeclinesinitially,then

increases.

?MCintersectsAVCandATCat

theirminimumpoints.

Q

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?8.ProfitMaximization

>Profitmaximizationoccurswhen

?Thedifferencebetweentotalrevenue(TR)andtotalcosts(TC)isthe

greatest;

?Marginalrevenue(MR)equalsmarginalcost(MC);(MR=MC)

/Therevenuevalueoftheoutputfromthelastunitofinput

employedequalsthecostofemployingthatinputunit.

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?9.BreakevenPointandShutdownPoint

>Underperfectcompetition

Revenue-CostRelationshipShort-RunDecisionLong-RunDecision

AR>ATCStayinmarketStayinmarket

AR=ATCBreakevenpoint

AVC<AR<ATCStayinmarketExitmarket

AR=AVCShutdownpoint

Shutdownproductionto

AR<AVCExitmarket

zero

>Underimperfectcompetition

Revenue-CostRelationshipShort*RunDecisionLong-RunDecision

TR>TCStayinmarkptStayinmarkpt

TVC<TR<TCStayinmarketExitmarket

TR<TVCShutdownproductiontozeroExitmarket

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?10.EconomiesofScaleandDiseconomiesofScale

>Economiesofscaleoccursifcostperunitofproductionfallsasinput

increases,andtheslopeofLRACisnegative.

>Diseconomiesofscaleoccursifcostperunitrisesasinputincreases,and

Q

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TheFirmandMarketStructures

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1.IdentificationofMarketStructure

Framework2.PerfectCompetition

3.MonopolisticCompetition

4.Oligopoly

?Kinkeddemandcurvemodel

?Nashequilibriummodel

?Stackelbergdominantfirmmodel

5.Monopoly

6.ConcentrationMeasures

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?1.MarketStructure

NumberDegreeofDifficultyPricingThe

Typedifferenceoftoenterexamplein

offirmsproductsorleavePowerofFirmourlife

Some

PerfectHomogeneous

ManyVerylowNoneagricultural

competition/Standardized

products

MonopolisticSomeretail

ManyDifferentiatedlowSome

competitionproducts

Steel,

HomogeneousSomeor

OligopolyFewHighautomobile

/StandardizedConsiderable

,oil

PureUniquePublic

OneVeryhighConsiderable

monopolyProductsectors

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?2.PerfectCompetition

>Apricetakerisafirmthatcannotinfluencethemarketpriceandthatsets

itsownpriceatthemarketprice.

>Individualfirmademandscheduleisperfectlyelastic(horizontal,Price=

Demand=MarginalRevenue=Averagerevenue).

>Perfectlycompetitionfirm'sshort-runequilibrium

?Profitmax:MR=MC

?MR=P=AR=D(pricetaker)

>Individualfirm'slong-runequilibriumunderperfectcompetition

?Inthelong-run,economicprofitwillattractotherentrepreneurstothe

marketfmoreoutput

?Thelong-run,firmsoperateatthepointwhereMC=minimumATC

?SofirmsoperateatthepointP=MR=MC=ATC,nofirmsearnexcess

profit.

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?3.MonopolisticCompetition

>Thefollowingmarketandproductfeaturesdefinemonopolistic

competition:

?Firmsinmonopolisticcompetitionhashighlyelasticitybecauseeach

competingproductsareclosesubstitutes.

?Firmshaveadownward-slopingdemandcurves

>Productdevelopmentandmarketing

?Innovationandproductdevelopment

?Brandnames

?Advertising

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?4.Oligopoly

>Oligopolyisaformofmarketcompetitioncharacterizedby

?Asmallnumberofsellers

?Interdependenceamongcompetitors

?Largeeconomiesofscale

?Significantbarrierstoentry

?Eithersimilarordifferentiatedproducts

>Comparedtomonopolisticcompetition,anoligopolymarketincludesfewer

firms,hashigherbarrierstoentry,anditsproductsarelesselastic.

>Incontrasttoamonopolist,oligopoliesarehighlydependentuponthe

actionsoftheirrivalswhenmakingbusinessdecisions.

>Fourmodelsofoligopoly

?Kinkeddemandcurvemodel

?Cournotduopolymodel

?Nashequilibriummodel(prisoner'sdilemma)

?Stackelbergdominantfirmmodel

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?4.1KinkedDemandCurveModel

KinkedDemandCurveinOligopolyMarket

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?4.2NashEquilibriumModel

>Ingametheory(thesetoftoolsthatdecisionmakersusetoconsider

responsesbyrivaldecisionmakers),theNashequilibriumispresentwhen

twoormoreparticipantsinanon-cooperativegamehavenoincentiveto

deviatefromtheirrespectiveequilibriumstrategiesaftertheyhave

consideredandanticipatedtheiropponentsrationalchoicesorstrategies.

>Theassumptionismadethateachparticipatingfirmdoesthebestitcan,

giventhereactionsofitsrivals.

?Thefirmsintheoligopolymarkethaveinterdependentactions.The

actionsarenon-cooperative,witheachfirmmakingdecisionsthat

maximizeitsownprofits.

?Thefirmsdonotcolludeinanefforttomaximizejointprofits.

?Theequilibriumisreachedwhenallfirmsaredoingthebestthey

can,giventheactionsoftheirrivals.

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?NashEquilibriumModel

>Prisoners'Dilemma

PrisonerYissilentPrisonerYconfesses

Xgets5monthsXgets8years

PrisonerXissilent

Ygets5monthsYgoesfree

XgoesfreeXgets3years

PrisonerXconfesses

Ygets8yearsYgets3years

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?4.3DominantFirmModel

>Dominantfirmmodel

?Asinglefirmthatgenerallyhave40%orgreatermarketshare.

/Greatercapacity;

/Greatercustomerloyalty.

?Thedominantfirmisthepricemaker

?Theotherfirmsinthemarketfollowthepricingpatternofthe

dominantfirm.

>Iftheothercompaniesinthemarketattemptstogainmarketshareby

undercuttinqthepricesetbythedominantfirm,themarketshareofthe

dominantfirmwillincrease.

>Overtime,thedominantcompany'gnarkeBhartendsdecreasprofitattractentry

byothercompanies.

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?51Monopoly

Themonopolist:sdemandscheduleistheaggregatedemandfca^theproduct

intherelevantmarketTheslopeofthedemandcurveisnegativeand

thereforedownwardsloping<DX不干刀口

Theprofit-maximizinglevelcfoutputoccurswheremarginalrevenue

equalsmarginalcostMR=MC.?U

Themonopolistssearchtorealizethemaximumprofit^insteadofthe

maximumprices

Tomaximizeitstotalprofit^monopolistswillproducelessproductand

chargehigherpriceforitsproductcomparedtotheperfectcompetition

market

TherelationshipbetweenMRandpriceelasticity邑isMR=P[1T/Ej

Typesofbarriers

?Legalbarrierstoentrycreatelegalmonopoly

?Naturalbarrierstoentrycreatenaturalmonopolywhichisanindusliy

inwhichonefirmcansupplythe,entiremarketatalewerpricetha