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Morganstanley

RESEARCH

BluePaper

AssetandWealthManagement

ThinningtheHerd:TheRaceforRelevanceFuelingM&A

By2029,weexpect20%fewerwealthandassetmanagers.Asgrowthbecomesscarcerandmoreconcentrated,intra-sectorscalebecomesparamount.Asinsurersandwealthmanagersreassesswhethertheyaretherightownersoftheirassetmanager,inter-sectoropportunitiesemerge.

OliverWymanisagloballeaderinmanagementconsulting.Formoreinformation,visit

.

OliverWymanisnotauthorizedorregulatedbythePRAortheFCAandisnotprovidinginvestmentadvice.OliverWymanauthorsarenotresearchanalystsandareneitherFCAnorFINRAregistered.

OliverWymanauthorshaveonlycontributedtheirexpertiseonbusinessstrategywithinthereport.OliverWyman’sviewsareclearlydelineated.

ThesecuritiesandvaluationsectionsofthisreportaretheworkofMorganStanleyonlyandnotOliverWyman.

FordisclosuresspecificallypertainingtoOliverWyman,pleaseseetheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendofthisreport

MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestment

decision.

Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.

+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.

2

organstanley

?oliverwyman

RESEARCH

BluePaper

Authors

MORGANSTANLEYOLIVERWYMAN

BetsyL.Graseck,CFA1

EQUITYANALYST+12127618473

Betsy.Graseck@

MichaelJ.Cyprys,CFA,CPA1

EQUITYANALYST+12127617619

Michael.Cyprys@

GiuliaAuroraMiotto,CFA2

EQUITYANALYST+442074255344

Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@

ConnellJ.Schmitz1

RESEARCHASSOCIATE+12127616252

Connell.Schmitz@

MiaNagasaka4

EQUITYANALYST+81368368406

Mia.Nagasaka@

MarinaMassuti2

EQUITYANALYST+44207677364

Marina.Massuti@

AndreiStadnik,FIAA3

EQUITYANALYST+61297701684

Andrei.Stadnik@

NickLord3

EQUITYANALYST+6568346746

Nick.Lord@

AnnaleiEDavis1

RESEARCHASSOCIATE+12127611736

Annalei.Davis@

RichardXu,CFA5

EQUITYANALYST+85228486729

Richard.Xu@

LubashaHeredia

PARTNER

+19174557805

Lubasha.Heredia@

JoshuaZwick

PARTNER

+19178469483

Joshua.Zwick@

BenPhillips

PARTNER

+12123453210

Ben.Phillips@

KamilKaczmarski,CFA

PARTNER

+496997173573

Kamil.Kaczmarski@

Jo?oMiguelRodrigues

PARTNER

+493039994558

JoaoMiguel.Rodrigues@

BradleyKellum

PARTNER

+16463648425

Bradley.Kellum@

PhilipSchroeder

PARTNER

+447749841436

Philip.Schroeder@

KilianScheuber

PRINCIPAL

+41793637665

Kilian.Scheuber@

LilianSachtleben

PRINCIPAL

+496997173017

Lilian.Sachtleben@

ValentinAllard,CFA

ENGAGEMENTMANAGER+33675198060

Valentin.Allard@

1MorganStanley&CoLLC

2MorganStanley&Co.InternationalPLC+

3MorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.+

4MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+

5MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+

rganstanley

?oliverwyman

RESEARCH

BluePaper

Contributors

MORGANSTANLEY

OLIVERWYMAN

StephanieMa,CFA1

EQUITYANALYST

Stephanie.Ma@

RyanKenny1

EQUITYANALYST

Ryan.Kenny@

JoonSeok2

EQUITYANALYST

Joon.Seok@

ChiyaoHuang5

EQUITYANALYST

Chiyao.Huang@

BarronThomas1

RESEARCHASSOCIATE

Barron.Thomas@

AlvaroSerrano2

EQUITYANALYST

Alvaro.Serrano@

AitongLi3

EQUITYANALYST

Aitong.Li@

HeewonChoi4

EQUITYANALYST

Heewon.Choi@

RickZhao5

EQUITYANALYST

Rick.Zhao@

MinseoKang4

RESEARCHASSOCIATE

Minseo.Kang@

HadleyCohen2

EQUITYANALYST

Hadley.Cohen@

ChristianEdelmann,CFA

MANAGINGPARTNER

Christian.Edelmann@

HuwvanSteenis

PARTNER

Huw.Vansteenis@

RonanO'Kelly

PARTNER

Ronan.OKelly@

ThomasHofmann

PARTNER

Thomas.Hofmann@

JasperYip

PARTNER

Jasper.Yip@

AnujGupta

PARTNER

Anuj.Gupta@

AlexandredeMontbas

SENIORADVISOR

Alexandre.DeMontbas@

RichardShepherd,CFA

SENIORRESEARCHSPECIALIST

Richard.Shepherd@

AgatheMellian

SENIORCONSULTANT

Agathe.Mellian@

MattiaCarnelli

SENIORCONSULTANT

Mattia.Carnelli@

Ana?sSaheb

CONSULTANT

Anais.Saheb@

1MorganStanleyCoLLC

2MorganStanleyCo.InternationalPLC+

3MorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.+

4MorganStanleyCo.Internationalplc,SeoulBranch+

5MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+

MorganStanleyResearch3

rganstanley

?oliverwyman

RESEARCH

BluePaper

4

Contents

5ExecutiveSummary

6KeyMessagesfromInterviews

8Section1.AssetManagement:TheRisingTideIsShifting

15Section2.WealthManagement:NavigatingWealthShiftsandMarginPressures

21Section3.HowM&AIsChangingtheFaceoftheAMandWMEcosystem

40Section4.RethinkingTalentManagementintheAgeofAI

MorganStanleyResearch5

ExecutiveSummary

Thewealthandassetmanagementindustrieshavelongbeenamongthemostfragmentedwithinfinancialservices.Despitetheecono-miesofscaleofbothindustries,therewasnoimperativetoconsoli-date.Thebartoprofitabilitycouldbeachievedwithatight-knitteamandfewclients.Therewasenoughorganicgrowthtogoaround,andbetawasliftingallboats.Assetmanagementclientsthemselveswerehighlyfragmented(pensionfunds,insurancecompanies,inde-pendentwealthmanagers),eachworkingwithawidearrayoffundproviders.

Thepictureischanging.Profitabilityischallengedwithmid-sizedplayersdisplayingthelowest(anddecreasing)operatingmargins.Whilerevenuemarginscontinuetodrop,technologyandAIrequireevermoreinvestmenttostaycompetitive.Leadersaretakinganincreasinglydisproportionateshareofthenetnewmoneyastheyleveragetheirscale’sbenefitstoreinvestincapabilitiesandrelation-shipstocapturenewcapital-andresource-intensivepocketsofgrowth.Asassetmanagementclientsconsolidate,internalize,andshifttostrategicpartnerships,andwealthmanagementclientsraisetheirexpectationsandprofessionalizetheirrelationships(e.g.,viausingmulti-andsingle-familyoffices),opportunitiesforgrowthbecomescarcerandmoreconcentrated.Weexpectthecombinationofthesefactorstodriveconsolidationasmid-sizedplayersbecomeattractiveacquisitionsforleadersseekingfurtherscaleanddiversifi-cation.

Theeffectsarealreadyondisplay.Transactionnumbershaveenteredanewnormalatover200significantdealsperyearsince2022(twicetherateofthepreviousdecade)acrossbothassetandwealthman-agement.TheassetmanagementindustryisnolongerproducingnetnewmanagersofmutualfundsorETFs:Averagingover150forthepasttwodecades,theyearlynetnewadditionsoftraditionalassetmanagershasdroppedtoahandfuloverthepastthreeyears.Evenbuoyantprivatemarketsaredisplayingasimilartrend.

By2029,weexpectover1,500significanttransactionsacrossassetandwealthmanagement,resultinginupto20%fewerassetandwealthmanagersthataremanagingatleast$1billionofassetswithinthenextfiveyears.SuccessinthisneweraofconsolidationwillrequireassetandwealthmanagerstoconsiderM&Aasacoreleveroftheirgrowthstrategies.

Mostdealssofarhavebeenintra-sector:mergersbetweentradi-tionalmanagers,traditionalmanagersacquiringalternatives,inde-

pendentwealthmanagersconsolidating.Successhasbeenmixed,particularlyforassetmanagers:Inrecentyears,lessthan40%offlagship1assetmanagementtransactionsimprovedcost-incomeratiosthreeyearsafteradeal,halfwereinnetoutflows,andhalfofprivatemarketspecialistsacquiredbytraditionalmanagersgrewslowerthanthemarket.Forwealthmanagers,multiplearbitragehasdrivenmostofthevaluecreationinindependentconsolidation,whileprivatebankshavemanagedtoeffectivelyleverageacquisitionsanddivestiturestoreprioritizeonshoremarketsandimproveprofitability.

Goingforward,weexpectinter-sectordealstograbthebiggesthead-lineswithinsurancecompaniesandwealthmanagersreassessingwhethertheyaretherightownersoftheirassetmanagementbusi-nesses.Thevalueofverticalintegrationhasprovenelusiveinprac-tice,eitherintermsofflowsorvaluations,leavingownersatacrossroads:investinconvergenceandmaximizethevalueofowner-shipormonetizetheassetthroughasaletoastrategicor,increas-ingly,financialbuyer.Thisisalreadymaterializingwithinsurersmonetizingthevalueoftheirbalancesheetsthrougheithersalesorjointventures.

Foracquirers,theexecutionplaybookisclearyetarduous.Theywillneedtochoosetherightacquisition(prioritizingrevenuecomple-mentarityandculturalcompatibilityovercostsynergypotential),de-risktransactions(managetalentandassetattrition,reducebetasensitivityinvaluations),executedecisivelytofendoffcompetition,andrunflawlesspost-mergerintegrationtomaterializeambitiousreturntargets.

Thisreport,informedbyOliverWyman’sextensiveprojectworkandover30discussionswithseniorexecutivesatassetandwealthman-agerscollectivelymanagingover$55trillionofassets,delvesintothedriversofconsolidation,thedifferenttypesofplaysandtheirrationale,thetrackrecordofpastdealsandcombinations,aswellasouroutlookforthenextfiveyearsandaplaybookforconductingsuc-cessfultransactions.

1.Transactionsinvolvinglistedassetmanagerswith>$100BNofAUMclosedbefore2021(i.e.,toprovide>3yearsforanalysis).

rganstanley

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RESEARCH

BluePaper

6

KeyMessagesfromInterviews

OurBluePaperisinformedbymorethan30interviewswithseniorexecutiveswithover$55trillionofcombinedassetsundermanagement.Herearethekeytakeawaysfromthesediscussions.

1)StateoftheIndustry:AssetManagement

?Sharedexpectationofsingle-digitAUMgrowth,butkeydebatesaround:

°APAC:Low-double-digitgrowthexpectedbutaccessakeychallenge(India,China).

°Institutional:Divergingviewsonbalancingadvantagesofscalewithstagnatinggrowth.

°Retail:Concentratesallhopesforgrowth,yetmostassetmanagersrecognizeneedforwidercapabilitiesandstrongerrelationshipswithdistributorstofullybenefit.

?Sharedperceptionofslowdowninprivatemarkets,butdebatesonfuturedirection:

°Dichotomybetweenleadersgrowingwhileothersstruggletofundraise.

°Highhopesforretaildistribution(andretirement),despitecautionaroundsuitabilityrisks.

?Feepressureonlistedassetstopersist;somewarnofsimilarchallengesformid-sizedprivatemarketplayers.

?Riseofpassivetocontinue,yetmanyflagemergingopportunitiesforactivemanagement(ETFs,solutions,enhancedindexing).

2)StateoftheIndustry:WealthManagement

?Growthexpectedacrossallwealthbands,butfirmprioritiesdivergebyheritageandclientmix:

°UHNW-heritageinstitutionsplaneithertodoubledownonUHNWclients—expandingshareofmarketandshareofwalletviacross-bankcollaborationandenhancedprivate-marketsaccess—ortobroadenfocustoHNW,especiallythe$1-10millionband,tocaptureincrementalrevenuegrowth.

°TraditionalHNW-focusedprivatebanksaimtomakedeliverymodelsmorecost-efficientsotheycanscalewithinHNWwhilepreservingahigh-touchvalueproposition.

°Affluent-/retail-heritagefirmsprioritizecapturingthe$1-10millionsegmentbyoptimizingproprietaryacquisitionfunnelsanddeployingcost-efficient,modulardeliverymodels.

?Intergenerationalwealthtransfer:Divergentstancesassomeleadersviewitprimarilyasaretentionrisk,andothersseeastep-changeopportunitytogainsharebymobilizingyoungeradvisorsandtech-enabledcoverageandservicemodels.

?Private-marketsaccessiswidelyseenascriticaltogrowth,thoughbuildpathsvary:fromdevelopingin-house

capabilitiestoforgingpartnershipsthatsourcedifferentiatedproductsandhelpmanagingoperationalcomplexity.

?Organicgrowthisacorepriority:Firmsareleveragingnewtoolsandadvancedanalyticstodeepenclientengagement,optimizepricing,anddesignincentivesthatattractandretainstickyassets.

?Costdisciplineisaccelerating:Leadingmanagersareexecutingtargetedcost-reductionprograms,sharpeningmarketfocus,speedingdigitalization,andbuildingshared,AI-enabledplatformstoraiseoperationalefficiency.

3)M&A

Intra-sectorassetmanagementdeals:

?Alreadybuoyanttransactionactivityexpectedtoaccelerate,withmostseeingconsolidationasinevitableasscalepressuresmount(“clientswanttodomorewithfewerpartners”).

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?Convergenceondifficultytogeneratecostsynergiesintraditionalassetmanagementmanagerwhilelimitingclientattrition,althoughperceptionsdifferonwhatdrivessuccess:

°Formost,targetcomplementarity(product,client,geography)andrevenuesynergies.

°Forsome,ruthlessexecutionandcostsynergies.

?Divergencearoundthefutureofprivateassetcapabilitybolt-ons.Somereiteratetheneedfortraditionaltoenterprivatemarkets,whileothersargue“ifyouhavenotdonesoyet,youaretoolate.”

Intra-sectorwealthmanagementdeals:

?Divergingstrategiesemergeamongbank-affiliatedwealthmanagement:somefocusonorganicgrowthwithahighbarforM&A,whileothersmakeacquisitionsanddivestiturescentraltotheironshorestrategies.

?Independentwealthmanagerconsolidationexpectedtocontinue(successionneeds,risingcostandtechinvestmentneeds);however,somecautionthatpastvaluecreationfrommultiplearbitragewillbedifficulttoreplicate.

Inter-sectoractivity:

?Intersectionofinsuranceandassetmanagementtoseehighactivitywithdifferentpaths,fromassetmanagersseekingacquisitions/partnershipstosecurepermanentcapital,toinsurerslookingtosecureproprietaryoriginationcapacitytocompeteinspread-intensivebusinesses,toinsurersdivestingtheirassetmanagementarmtoreinvestintheircore(non-spread-intensive)businesses.

?Divergenceonthevalueofwealthandassetmanagementcombinations,withsomewealthmanagersactivelypursuingfurtherintegrationwiththeirassetmanagers(fuelingtransactionstoscaleupinvestmentcapabilities)whileothers

contemplatecarve-outs.

?DebatearoundwhetheraPEinvestmentcaseisemerginginassetmanagement.Somepointtonewinvestmentandvaluecreationopportunitiesemerging,whileothersperceiveattrition,talent,andbetarisksasinsurmountable.

4)TalentManagementandAI

?InterviewedfirmsareshiftinggearsonAIfrompersonalproductivitytoenterprise-levelefficiencygains.

?Strategiesdivergeonhowtoleveragethesenewgains:whilesomeseektoreinvestthem(e.g.,wideningscopeofresearchcoverage),othersarelowering(junior)headcounts.

?Bothrecognizethedeepimpactontalentmanagement,requiringassetandwealthmanagerstofightfortalentwithawiderskillsetapplicabletomoreindustries(e.g.,tech,clientmanagement),exacerbatingtalentattritionrisksfollowingacquisitions.

?Leadersareanticipatingthesechangesbyrevampingapprenticeshipmodels(i.e.,HowdoItrainthenextAI-nativePM?),addressingseniorizationofPMsandadvisorsearly,andrethinkingtheirvaluepropositionstoattractthenextgenerationoftalent.

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8

1.AssetManagement:TheRisingTideIsShifting

1.1.GlobalAssetManagement(AM)Outlook:TenuousDespiteRecordAUM

In2024,assetsundermanagement(AUM)reachedarecord$135trillion,markinga13%increaseyear-over-year.Strongmarketperformancedroveapproximately80%oftheincrease.Netflowgrowthof2.6%,asignificantrecoveryfromtheslightcontractionseenin2022,issupportedbycontinuouswealthcreationandanotableshiftincapitalallocation.Specifically,lowerinterestratesareredirectingfundsfromguaranteeddepositsbackintocapitalmarkets,andthetransitionfromcollective(definedbenefit)pensionschemestoindividualized(definedcontribution)retirementplanscouldfurtherunderpinflowsgoingforward.Weexpectannualnetflowstoaveragearound2.7%through2029.

Exhibit1:GlobalAUMreaches$135TN,anall-timehigh,drivenbymarketsandstableorganicgrowthChangebreakdownbetweenmarketperformanceandnetflows($TN),2019-2029F

Organicgrowthrates(netflowsoverpreviousyearAUM)

●+3.9%●+5.1%●-0.3%●+2.3%●+2.6%●+2.7%●

200

+2.8%

22

+1.7%

43

135

3

119

12013

5

2

107

-12

102

12

11

-0

92

4

6

2019202020212022202320242029F

ShareofflowsinAUMYoYgrowth

36%31%2%19%20%33%

AUMMarketeffectFlows

Sources:BroadridgeGlobalDemandModel;Preqin;OliverWymanGlobalAssetManagementModel.

Apivotal,thoughexpected,developmentistheovertakingofactiveequitybypassiveequityforthefirsttimeglobally.Passiveequitymanage-mentisstillexpanding,especiallyinestablishedmarketslikeUSretailandunderpenetratedregionssuchasEuropeandAsia-Pacific.Conversely,activeequityfundsfacepersistentoutflowsattheindustrylevel,sustainedonlybyafewmanagersdeliveringtop-quartileperformance.Thefixedincomesegmentexhibitsasimilartrend:Althoughpassivefixedincomeassetsareexpectedtogrowtwiceasfastasactive,theywillremainarelativelysmallsegmentofthemarketby2029.

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MorganStanleyResearch9

Exhibit2:Passiveovertakesactiveequityforthefirsttime;alternativesstagnateGlobalManagedAUMbreakdownbyassetclass($TN),2019-2029F

CAGR

2019-2024

CAGR

2024-2029F

+8%

200

+11%

11%

13%

+8%

+12%

+13%

+12%

+7%

3%

+12%

-10%

135

+16%

6%4%

6%

21%

+10%

+5%

10%

+11%

—一119

120

9%

11%

6%

5%

106

9%

13%

9%

102

9%

10%

+10%

+5%

3%

4%

11%

12%

92

3%

6%

10%

3%

6%

+3%

+13%

3%5%

3%5%

9%

6%

6%

6%

5%

5%

3%

5%

6%

6%

5%

24%

19%

18%

5%

5%

+8%

+6%

26%

16%

19%

25%

16%

18%

22%

26%

15%

20%

26%

15%

18%

28%

14%

20%

+5%

+11%

+14%

+4%

14%

+6%

2019202020212022202320242029F

ActiveEquityPassiveEquity

ActiveFixedIncomePassiveFixedIncome

Multi-Asset

MoneyMarket

HedgeFundsPrivateMarkets

Solutions1

1.LDI,OCIO,TargetDateFund,TargetMaturityandotheroutcome-orientedproducts.

Sources:BroadridgeGlobalDemandModel;Preqin;OliverWymanGlobalAssetManagementModel.

Solutions-basedofferingsarebecomingakeygrowtharea,withthesegmentexpectedtoexpandatan11%annualratethrough2029.Assetmanagersareincreasinglyadoptingsolutionsintheformofmodelportfolios,sub-advisorymandates,andretirement-focusedproductstodifferentiatefromcommoditizedofferings.Thisgrowthisfueledbyrisingdemandforretailretirementinvestmentproducts(e.g.,targetdate,targetmaturity,decumulationproducts),withaverageorganicgrowthforthelastthreeyearsof12%inAPAC,15%inEurope,and7%intheAmericas,aswellasbytheexpansionofinsti-tutionalsolutionsintheAmericas,notablyoutsourcedchiefinvest-mentofficer(OCIO)mandateswhichhavegrownorganicallyat7%since2021.

Privatemarkets,afterasurgein2019-2022,experiencedstagnationin2024.Thisplateaumasksagrowingdisparitybetweenleadersandsmallerplayers.Thetop10privateassetfundsbyassetscaptured14%offundraisingin2024,comparedto10%in2020,afigurethatclimbsto48%and58%ofcapitalraisedin2024forprivatedebtandinfrastructure,respectively.Thelargestfirms,benefitingfrompro-prietarycapitalanddealorigination,continuetooutpacetheircom-petitors,securingmostofthenewcapitalflowsandcommandingpremiumfees.Smallermanagersfacefundraisingchallengesandoftencompetebydiscountingfees,adividelikelytointensifyaswealthdistributionchannels(wheremostgrowthisexpected)favorlarger,well-knownbrands.Goingforward,wenonethelessstill

expectsignificantgrowthacrossprivatemarkets,bolsteredbytheirincreasingpenetrationofretailclients’portfolios.

Exhibit3:Privatemarkets:atemporaryslowdownandagrowingchasmbetweenleadersandthepack

GlobalPrivateMarketsManagedAUMbyassetclass($TN),2019-2029F

+12%

+7%

+1%

—中

+6%

14%

+24%

+12%

15%

CAGR

2019-2024

26.0

10%

12%

1%

+3%

+12%

+13%

14.714.9

12%12%

10%10%

11%11%

13.9

13.2

13%9%

13%

10.39%

8.6

10%10%

13%

63%

9%

10%

11%

10%

65%65%

67%65%

62%

65%

CAGR

2024-2029F

+6%

+9%

+15%

+16%

+11%

2019202020212022202320242029F

PrivateEquityInfrastructureNaturalResourcesPrivateDebtRealEstate

Sources:BroadridgeGlobalDemandModel;Preqin;OliverWymanGlobalAssetManagementModel.

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10

Regionally,Asia-Pacificstandsoutforitshigherorganicnetflowsintoretailandinstitutionalmarkets,particularlyinChina.Despiterecentslowdowns,significanthouseholdwealthremainsinlow-yielddeposits,highlightinguntappedpotential,especiallyinJapan.Europe’sAUMgrowthisexpectedtobenefitfromregulatoryeffortsencouragingretailparticipationandtheongoingshifttowardindividualizedretirementschemes,throughnewvehiclesandincentives(France,Germany)ormandatoryauto-enrollmentinDCschemes(UK).Retailchannelsgloballyareprojectedtogrowtwiceasfastasinstitutionalsegments,whichfacenetoutflows,exceptincertainpocketssuchasinsurancegeneralaccountsandselectDBpensionmarkets(e.g.,Japan,Australia).

Exhibit4:Anincreasinglyglobalandretailopportunity

GlobalManagedAUMbreakdownbyregionandclienttype($TN),2019-2029F

CAGR

CAGR

2024-2029F

200

200

CAGRCAGR

2019-2024

2024-2029F

2019-2024

21%

+5%

+6%

135

135

42%

+5%

23%

120

19%

25%

120

51%

+7%

119

19%

26%

119

51%

20%

106

20%

25%

102

19%

27%

102

51%

106

92

18%

27%

92

48%

24%

52%

53%

58%

56%

52%

56%

55%

57%

55%

49%

2021

54%

48%

2022

55%

49%

2020

49%

47%

2019

2024

2023

2029F

InstitutionalRetail(incl.DCpension)

2019202020212022202320242029FAPACEMEAAmericas

Notallpercentagesaddupto100duetorounding.

Sources:BroadridgeGlobalDemandModel;Preqin;OliverWymanGlobalAssetManagementModel.

Intermsofrevenues,theassetmanagementindustryisexpectedtogenerateover$650billionby2029,growinginlinewithAUMataround8%annually.Alternativesarepoisedtoclaimanincreasingshare,repre-senting44%oftherevenuepool,whiletheshareofactiveequityandfixedincomefundsdiminishes.Althoughfeecompressionpersists,itisoffsetbytheshifttowardhigher-marginprivatemarketsandretailgrowth.Assetmanagers’operatingmarginsimprovedin2024,particu-larlyamongalternatives,whichreachedarecord51%.Nonetheless,tra-ditionalmanagerscontinuetofacestructuralprofitabilitychallengesamidongoingfeepressureandcostcontroldemands,especiallythoseusinghybridoperatingmodels(combiningbothtraditionalandalterna-tivesassetmanagement)thatstruggletointegratedistributionandproductdevelopmentefficiently.

Exhibit5:Profitabilityimprovesbutremainbelow2019levels,exceptforalternatives

GlobalAssetManagementOperatingMarginsbyInvestmentStrategy(%),2019-2024

45

40

39

31

47

41

40

31

50

44

43

35

49

40

37

29

51

48

41

39

37

35

29

28

201920202021202220232024

AllTraditionalwithAlternatives1

TraditionalAlternatives

1.Whereanassetmanagerhasminimum>10%oftotalAuMinAlternativesassetsSources:publiccompanyreporting;OliverWymananalysis.

rganstanley

?oliverwyman

RESEARCH

BluePaper

MorganStanleyResearch11

Exhibit6:GlobalAMRevenuestosurpass$650BNby2029,alternativestoaccountfor44%GlobalAssetManagementRevenuesbreakdownbyassetclass($BN),2019-2029F

CAGRCAGR2019-20242024-2029F

669

7%

+8%

+8%+7%

428

6%

36%

7%2%

-10%

37%

+16%

+9%

463

6%

32%

444

6%

32%

7%2%

+11%

399

5%

37%

7%2%

381

6%

30%

7%2%

343

6%

28%

7%2%

+7%

+6%

5%

+1%

1%

8%

6%

2%

1%

+6%

+3%

13%

7%

20%

1%7%

16%

4%

26%

8%

7%

6%

7%

2%

1%

1%

6%

1%

15%

6%

24%

1%

15%

5%

23%

17%

4%

26%

15%

4%

18%

4%

26%

+14%

+5%

+11%

+11%

+4%

+6%

+6%

+5%

+13%

22%

2019202020212022202320242029F

ActiveEquityPassiveEquity

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