策略研究策略研究市場估值分化，紅利與微盤股指數(shù)居前。上周寬基指數(shù)估值分化，紅利指數(shù)表現(xiàn)最優(yōu)，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指表現(xiàn)最弱。從PE、PB偏離度的角度看，食品飲料、農(nóng)林牧漁、社會(huì)服務(wù)等行業(yè)估值較為便宜。向前看，本周市場ERP上升處于21年以來負(fù)一倍標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差附近。太平洋證券股份有限公司證券研究報(bào)告市場表現(xiàn)：紅利、微盤股、上證指數(shù)表現(xiàn)最好；創(chuàng)業(yè)板指、科創(chuàng)太平洋證券股份有限公司證券研究報(bào)告行業(yè)表現(xiàn)：有色金屬、煤炭、鋼鐵漲幅前三，傳媒、電子、電力設(shè)備表現(xiàn)最弱。相對(duì)估值：創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/滬深300相對(duì)PE下降，創(chuàng)業(yè)板值/滬深300相對(duì)PB下降。全AERP：ERP較前一周上升，處于指數(shù)PEG&PB-ROE:紅利PEG值最小，科創(chuàng)50風(fēng)格PB-ROE值最小。大類行業(yè)估值：金融地產(chǎn)估值高于50%歷史分位，原材料、設(shè)備制造、工業(yè)服務(wù)、交通運(yùn)輸、消費(fèi)、科技?xì)v史估值處于50%左右及以下水平。一級(jí)行業(yè)估值：各行業(yè)估值漲跌分化，非銀金融、農(nóng)林牧漁、家電、食品飲料估值處于近一年低位。熱門概念：半導(dǎo)體、科技板塊、機(jī)器人、中字頭央企、大飛機(jī)等概念估值處于三年歷史高分位。盈利預(yù)期：各行業(yè)盈利預(yù)期整體微幅變動(dòng)，傳媒上調(diào)幅度最大；鋼鐵下調(diào)幅度最大。海外主要指數(shù)：上周海外主要指數(shù)漲跌分化，日經(jīng)225指數(shù)表現(xiàn)最好，恒生科技指數(shù)表現(xiàn)最差。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：1、市場波動(dòng)過大；2、數(shù)據(jù)具有時(shí)滯性；3、歷史數(shù)據(jù)不代表未來。一、市場漲跌分化，紅利與微盤指數(shù)居前 4二、寬基指數(shù)估值分化 三、行業(yè)估值漲跌分化，有色金屬、煤炭領(lǐng)漲 四、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示： 圖表1：上周紅利、微盤股表現(xiàn)居前 4圖表2：上周有色金屬、煤炭、鋼鐵表現(xiàn)居前 5圖表3：創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/滬深300相對(duì)PE(TTM) 6圖表4：創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/滬深300相對(duì)PB(LF) 6圖表5：萬得全AERP 6圖表6：寬基指數(shù)PE-G 7圖表7：寬基指數(shù)PB-ROE 7圖表8：各指數(shù)估值 8圖表9：大類行業(yè)指數(shù)PE(TTM) 9圖表10：大類行業(yè)指數(shù)PB(LF) 9圖表11：各行業(yè)估值 圖表12：各行業(yè)估值偏離度 圖表13：各行業(yè)PB-ROE 圖表14：熱門概念估值 圖表15：各行業(yè)盈利預(yù)期增速 圖表16：港股及海外主要指數(shù)估值情況 指數(shù)近一周近半月近三周近一月萬得全A-0.360.260.41 1.56上證指數(shù)0.370.891.131.71深證成指-1.26-0.922.14滬深300-0.51-0.070.512.642.64創(chuàng)業(yè)板指-3.86-3.85-3.85科創(chuàng)50-2.85-2.85-1.215.24紅利指數(shù)1.791.511.301.32國證1000-0.470.120.552.572.57國證2000-0.330.40-0.15-0.51萬得微盤股指數(shù)0.660.702.440.95金融0.00-1.250.02-0.52周期0.00-4.22-4.22-0.06消費(fèi)0.00-0.36-2.61成長0.00-0.721.21穩(wěn)定0.00-2.76-2.760.07-0.84近半月近三周近一月8.084.41一級(jí)行業(yè)近一周近半月近三周近一月8.084.414.50-0.873.786.344.50-0.873.786.3417.21-1.36-1.78-0.65-1.65-3.233.63-0.202.38-4.04-6.10-5.092.982.515.57-0.70-2.62-1.85-1.342.17-1.520.014.132.732.84-0.76 0.992.945.267.81-1.49-0.80-0.631.390.193.48 1.131.29-0.16-0.95-1.702.803.62-0.852.69-0.72-3.74-3.41-0.46-0.64-0.77-0.2811.92-2.68-0.17l0.460.88-1.58 4.150.992.37-0.19-2.74-1.70 3.24 4.210.842.75-2.69-6.26-4.71-0.852.96-0.14-0.91 3.07 3.802.292.831.32基礎(chǔ)化工1.99鋼鐵4.18有色金屬4.44家用電器-0.49食品飲料-0.15紡織服飾1.60輕工制造0.71醫(yī)藥生物1.20公用事業(yè)3.45交通運(yùn)輸1.09房地產(chǎn)-0.82商貿(mào)零售-0.40社會(huì)服務(wù)1.01綜合-0.65建筑材料2.66建筑裝飾2.84電力設(shè)備2.52國防軍工0.10銀行0.28非銀金融0.50機(jī)械設(shè)備-0.26煤炭4.41石油石化2.9911.92-2.68-0.17l0.460.88-1.58 4.150.992.37-0.19-2.74-1.70 3.24 4.210.842.75-2.69-6.26-4.71-0.852.96-0.14-0.91 3.07 3.802.292.831.32上周指數(shù)估值漲跌分化，主要指數(shù)估值處于近一年高分位水平，穩(wěn)定PE-TTM近一年分位數(shù)近三年分位數(shù)PB（LF）近一年分位數(shù)近三年分位數(shù)近兩月估值走勢萬得全A22.599.699.91.899.299.7上證指數(shù)深證成指滬深300創(chuàng)業(yè)板指科創(chuàng)50紅利指數(shù)國證1000國證2000萬得微盤股指數(shù)金融周期消費(fèi)成長穩(wěn)定16.799.699.91.598.899.631.598.499.42.898.498.814.299.699.91.598.499.443.897.197.95.597.198.8185.496.398.86.597.599.27.672.090.6PE-TTM近一年分位數(shù)近三年分位數(shù)PB（LF）近一年分位數(shù)近三年分位數(shù)近兩月估值走勢萬得全A22.599.699.91.899.299.7上證指數(shù)深證成指滬深300創(chuàng)業(yè)板指科創(chuàng)50紅利指數(shù)國證1000國證2000萬得微盤股指數(shù)金融周期消費(fèi)成長穩(wěn)定16.799.699.91.598.899.631.598.499.42.898.498.814.299.699.91.598.499.443.897.197.95.597.198.8185.496.398.86.597.599.27.672.090.60.746.380.717.099.699.91.699.699.961.796.398.82.793.897.90.00.00.02.484.081.09.272.090.60.870.790.225.296.798.92.096.298.827.587.940.72.979.148.392.298.799.64.198.799.615.428.041.51.31.726.4-0.360.37-1.26-0.51-3.86-2.851.79-0.47-0.330.660.000.000.000.000.00各行業(yè)估值漲跌分化，非銀金融、農(nóng)林牧漁、家電、食品飲料估值處于近一年低位。........大類行業(yè)本周漲跌幅PE-TTM近一年分位數(shù)近三年分位數(shù)PB（LF）近一年分位數(shù)近三年分位數(shù)近兩月估值走勢銀行286.153.184.384.30.516.771.171.1非銀金融14.933.135.41.479.479.492.9金融地產(chǎn)房地產(chǎn)-0.8269.599.299.70.998.685.885.8建筑材料666630.194.798.21.4100.068.068.0建筑裝飾848412.4100.0100.00.897.366.666.6煤炭4116.1100.0100.01.374.374.348.0石油石化999918.996.798.91.372.072.0 43.3原材料基礎(chǔ)化工9929.9100.0100.02.299.882.282.2鋼鐵40.899.299.71.2100.0100.0有色金屬4427.899.699.93.399.699.9電力設(shè)備-2-2.5241.798.899.63.398.881.381.3設(shè)備制造國防軍工087.490.196.74.199.099.7機(jī)械設(shè)備-0.2638.296.398.83.197.199.0工業(yè)服務(wù)環(huán)保綜合公用事業(yè)交通運(yùn)輸1-03149.6527.454.419.916.899.2 99.7 74.7 62.4 91.41.72.31.71.399.299.7 42.490.390.396.84545100.0100.095.50975.175.169.369.354.8計(jì)算機(jī)-1.8393.691.497.14.793.097.7科技傳媒通信-3.8347.690.593.23.293.097.5-1.6046.090.596.84.391.897.2電子-2-2.6372.697.199.05.297.199.0汽車-1.2631.397.382.682.62.896.798.9美容護(hù)理 9741.592.670.870.83.589.589.553.6農(nóng)林牧漁 0318.7 41.213.82.694.956.7家用電器-0.4914.6 43.675.275.22.568.568.579.279.2食品飲料-0.1521.157.429.44.127.618.4消費(fèi)紡織服飾1.601.6027.493.897.91.990.195.1輕工制造30.993.886.586.52.094.977.877.8醫(yī)藥生物-1.2039.082.782.794.23.082.382.372.672.6商貿(mào)零售-0.4040.988.988.996.22.086.286.272.572.5社會(huì)服務(wù)-1.0143.978.678.6 44.83.050.049.2P::P::從PE、PB偏離度的角度看，估值最便宜的行業(yè)集中于PB-ROE視角下，當(dāng)前非銀金融、農(nóng)林牧漁、食品歷史最高歷史最低歷史中位當(dāng)前分位歷史最高歷史最低歷史中位當(dāng)前分位銀行0.520.650.420.508.81568.8284.32非銀金融0.9193%6.038.6193%35.35房地產(chǎn)0.870.980.540.7586%-13.329.91-13.32-1.8799.72建筑材料0.87 68%3.072.565.4225%98.21建筑裝飾0.820.580.79 67%歷史最高歷史最低歷史中位當(dāng)前分位歷史最高歷史最低歷史中位當(dāng)前分位銀行0.520.650.420.508.81568.8284.32非銀金融0.9193%6.038.6193%35.35房地產(chǎn)0.870.980.540.7586%-13.329.91-13.32-1.8799.72建筑材料0.87 68%3.072.565.4225%98.21建筑裝飾0.820.580.79 67%6.276.278.04100.00大類行業(yè)一級(jí)行業(yè)PBROEPB-ROE分位金融地產(chǎn)煤炭1.30石油石化1.25原材料基礎(chǔ)化工2.18原材料鋼鐵1.16有色金屬3.33 3.430.73 0.96 2.2648%9.7222.239.72100.0043%9.458.7698.9082%6.186.188.32100.00-0.13-0.992.4899.729.6143%99.86電力設(shè)備3.29設(shè)備制造國防軍工4.05設(shè)備制造機(jī)械設(shè)備3.11 4.27 4.10 3.16 1.832.70 2.083.07 1.712.3281%3.953.609.7999.592.795.452.564.3896.7099%6.619.546.056.8125%98.76綜合2.25公用事業(yè)1.70交通運(yùn)輸1.32工業(yè)服務(wù)0.931.551.141.334.316.424.315.5899.7297%-0.44-6.85-2.1987%74.6996%8.519.252.708.0362%62.4555%8.239.544.807.8687%91.40計(jì)算機(jī)4.704.97科技傳媒3.223.42科技通信4.284.58電子5.225.49 2.29 3.50 2.39 2.45 3.0398%5.793.3997.1197%3.745.893.7450%93.1997%8.908.903.328.5096.8499%6.434.386.2756%99.04汽車汽車2.85美容護(hù)理3.54農(nóng)林牧漁農(nóng)林牧漁家用電器食品飲料2.622.534.12紡織服飾輕工制造醫(yī)藥生物商貿(mào)零售社會(huì)服務(wù)2.992.952.901.672.2599%7.898.465.097.026 5.662.463.8054%6.6711.706.178.8512%70.84 3.542.022.6157%11.9511.95-13.632.99100%13.762.822.07 7.213.635.0618%20.5622.3519.3220.5843%29.371.921.301.6895%4.918.294.175.8618%97.942.241.271.7978%3.7711.743.776.550%86.45 3.412.102.7473%5.9912.455.999.420%94.222.451.181.7872%2.823.37-3.670.9181%96.22 3.792.142.9849%4.497.67-6.104.4662%44.84當(dāng)前熱門概念中，半導(dǎo)體、科技板塊、機(jī)器人、中字頭央企、大飛機(jī)類別指數(shù)名稱本周漲跌幅年初至今漲幅PS(TTM)三年分位PE(TTM)三年分位汽車無人駕駛-1.1026.141.3873.7341.4364.08新能源發(fā)電TOPCON電池HJT電池光伏逆變器光伏屋頂儲(chǔ)能特高壓-2.140.80-4.980.52-4.104.1514.7027.4553.9422.0258.5631.862.013.702.43 0.000.000.000.0080.88 29.4513.8965.2981.0736.7499.5375.1079.64 半導(dǎo)體先進(jìn)封裝半導(dǎo)體材料EDA半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備第三代半導(dǎo)體-0.74-0.590.84-1.12-0.81-1.4132.2446.7032.6065.3329.2230.582.585.539.105.0099.8671.0381.831,742.1176.0641.9959.2681.7292.9731.3751.44190.2494.5499.7299.8699.173.7797.66新消費(fèi)CRO培育鉆石預(yù)制菜-3.435.510.3955.0626.8243.034.806.652.996.510.9479.3734.1280.1038.6735.35 95.460.0031.550.000.45科技AIGC東數(shù)西算華為鴻蒙云計(jì)算數(shù)字貨幣機(jī)器視覺6G工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信創(chuàng)產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)元宇宙主題-1.9126.875.292.374.043.343.593.132.392.8027.9219.820.01115.8377.900.000.0092.3184.57176.2779.8445.9676.00-2.08-0.95-1.95-1.22-2.01-1.14-0.61-1.66-1.85-3.1543.6010.8433.6742.0840.9744.1239.4935.1431.4642.0997.1180.12 89.9695.7498.7699.1191.6629.6295.4666.6791.9332.2493.1059.7490.9999.3199.0499.3198.90其他機(jī)器人中字頭央企大飛機(jī)-0.430.5638.1613.1822.172.360.853.3998.3533.0493.0311.9873.6095.9497.5274.7898.81上周各行業(yè)盈利預(yù)期整體微幅變動(dòng)，傳媒上調(diào)幅度最大；鋼鐵下調(diào)幅一級(jí)行業(yè)年初至今漲幅上周盈利預(yù)期增速上周盈利預(yù)期變動(dòng)2025E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E農(nóng)林牧漁18.3%19.0%26.3%25.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%基礎(chǔ)化工27.9%38.6%24.0%19.3%-0.3%-0.1%0.1%鋼鐵23.6%474.1%42.4%12.3%-6.4%0.3%-0.1%有色金屬75.0%46.3%15.6%15.7%0.2%-0.3%0.0%49.5%64.2%38.4%26.7%-0.1%0.0%0.0%家用電器6.5%13.4%10.9%9.7%-0.4%-0.1%0.0%食品飲料-5.2%5.5%9.7%9.4%-0.1%0.0%0.0%紡織服飾9.9%15.8%46.4%15.2%-0.3%0.0%0.0%輕工制造12.5%17.1%72.4%13.3%-1.5%0.2%1.2%醫(yī)藥生物21.9%31.5%22.5%21.4%0.1%-0.2%0.0%公用事業(yè)4.4%11.3%2.8%7.9%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%交通運(yùn)輸-0.2%1.8%-0.3%12.5%0.4%-0.1%0.3%房地產(chǎn)10.9%23.9%115.7%77.5%-1.0%-1.0%7.0%商貿(mào)零售2.2%33.6%31.3%16.7%-0.9%0.7%-0.1%社會(huì)服務(wù)7.6%36.1%47.0%16.9%-0.3%0.2%0.1%綜合36.5%104.5%3794.1%30.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%建筑材料21.8%75.1%28.9%15.9%-1.8%0.4%-0.3%建筑裝飾8.5%5.2%17.0%5.8%0.0%-0.2%0.2%電力設(shè)備40.1%104.7%61.6%25.5%-0.1%0.1%0.1%國防軍工18.9%112.1%58.5%26.3%-0.7%0.0%0.4%計(jì)算機(jī)25.7%234.7%62.1%25.6%-2.3%0.6%0.2%傳媒30.5%143.0%32.9%12.5%17.9%14.7%0.4%通信60.0%15.0%14.6%10.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%銀行1.9%0.7%1.5%4.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%非銀金融7.4%12.0%6.4%10.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%汽車26.8%31.5%26.5%22.0%-0.5%0.4%0.3%機(jī)械設(shè)備36.9%33.9%25.6%19.5%-0.1%-0.1%0.3%煤炭-3.8%-21.1%12.9%8.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%石油石化-0.2%0.5%6.3%6.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%環(huán)保18.1%19.2%32.2%13.8%2.6%-2.6%0.7%美容護(hù)理11.2%39.2%24.4%17.6%-0.4%0.1%0.0%20.194.5英國富時(shí)100德國DAX恒生指數(shù)恒生科技納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)韓國綜合指數(shù)-0.5619.597.298.2-3.1312.093.998.023.878.0-5.4859.298.560.9-2.5342.147.697.516.7100.067.15.0722.097.586.4本周漲跌幅PE-TTM近一年分位數(shù)近三年分位數(shù)PB（LF）近20.194.5英國富時(shí)100德國DAX恒生指數(shù)恒生科技納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)韓國綜合指數(shù)-0.5619.597.298.2-3.1312.093.998.023.878.0-5.4859.298.560.9-2.5342.14