2025年5月20日安聯研究2第3-5頁第6-8頁第22-25頁第26-27頁2025年5月20日AnaBoataHeadofEconomicResearchana.boata@JasminGr?schlSeniorEconomistforEuropejasmin.grosch@Fran?oiseHuangSeniorEconomistforAsiaPacificfrancoise.huang@AnoKuhanathanHeadofCorporateResearchano.kuhanathan@MaximeLemerleLeadAdvisor,InsolvencyResearchmaxime.lemerle@LluisDalmauEconomistforAfrica&MiddleEastlluis.dalmau@GaranceTallonResearchassistant波動與變革的規(guī)模正倒逼企業(yè)加速多元化戰(zhàn)略布局——這一趨勢早在2017年特安聯研究42025年5月20日安聯研究602025年5月20日7移至海外以避免延誤或成本增加。0ngapore加ngapore加安聯研究8“解放日后”“解放日后”02025年5月20日9安聯研究06050403020104843533434594751566202025年5月20日安聯研究2023年以來此前的降價已導致回旋余地有限。02025年5月20日0安聯研究當被問及對其海外生產基地和供應鏈構成最大威脅的三大與2017年相比已經翻倍。0能源成本與題能源成本與題2025年5月20日1009080706050403020100202520240能源成本與可投資成本高缺乏稅收激勵或能源成本與可投資成本高缺乏稅收激勵或太歐太歐美2025年5月20日度依賴中國且難以替代的產品種類數量維持在238項至2025年在華業(yè)務布局將擴大*2025年在華業(yè)務布局將收縮*2025年在華業(yè)務布局將收縮10----0安聯研究2025年5月20日企業(yè)對北美市場作為海外生產基地及供應商選址的意愿均安聯研究海外生產基地和/或供應商的潛在未來布局地點/////////6%50%4%6%4%10%6%6%9%7%14%44%7%1%10%2%10%5%6%24%9%20%6%14%4%11%6%歐9%27%6%11%18%15%9%5%0%7%24%3%6%6%32%9%5%8%4%22%2%3%3%13%29%3%21%9%23%3%15%5%16%5%16%9%海外生產基地和/或供應商的潛在未來布局地點/////////6%40%1%5%5%11%3%10%20%*********4%31%5%19%6%11%0%13%11%歐8%21%6%7%21%10%0%12%14%6%24%4%3%8%28%8%27%5%13%13%9%9%30%4%0%9%0%8%20%3%5%6%22%1%20%15%海外生產基地和/或供應商的潛在未來布局地點29%31%1%1%4%21%4%6%3%13%36%36%3%3%8%6%15%4%13%2%4%17%11%10%21%6%29%0%2%14%3%30%15%14%5%18%0%歐10%26%2%12%12%23%2%9%4%13%11%1%3%6%50%5%4%7%13%15%5%3%1%28%31%4%0%11%20%0%10%6%22%3%24%3%2025年5月20日海外生產基地和/或供應商的潛在未來布局地點29%31%1%1%4%21%4%6%3%13%36%36%3%3%8%6%15%4%13%2%4%17%11%10%21%6%29%0%2%14%3%30%15%14%5%18%0%歐10%26%2%12%12%23%2%9%4%13%11%1%3%6%50%5%4%7%13%15%5%3%1%28%31%4%0%11%20%0%10%6%22%3%24%3%海外生產基地和/或供應商的潛在未來布局地點23%37%2%4%1%11%11%9%1%8%45%2%5%4%17%8%8%2%2%19%23%4%6%20%10%18%0%9%14%1%22%20%13%2%19%0%歐9%18%1%14%17%23%4%13%0%8%12%2%3%4%42%17%10%1%8%12%1%1%1%20%38%18%3%8%21%2%6%3%24%6%28%2%海外生產基地和/或供應商的潛在未來布局地點10%24%0%2%6%24%9%25%0%4%32%2%1%2%19%4%23%13%******************歐15%15%3%3%8%36%10%10%0%3%15%0%2%8%40%17%10%5%3%5%0%0%6%27%32%27%0%6%14%3%2%0%15%13%47%0%安聯研究的中國企業(yè)對在拉美開展制造業(yè)務或尋找新供應商2025年5月20日安聯研究400.0300.0200.0100.00.0-100.0-200.0-300.0200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220234020088790077安聯研究2025年5月20日077756365636810-999m10-999m1bn-4.9bn5bn+紡織品批發(fā)和零售貿易制藥造紙金屬28機械與設備33能源化工農業(yè)食品27020406080100010-24%25-49%50-74%>75%2323232722272424242034203830263830222622412022412020202036322436323725323725403840203220292429352731352702040608010090807060504030200212444243925412344234021244424392541234423402023243830404946493432313829292222253432313829292222u10-24%u25-49%u50-74%a>75%建筑3130282438313128313227344638434145414445454347382328242923222028202222202922020406080LudovicSubranludovic.subran@AnaBoataana.boata@ArneHolzhausenarne.holzhausen@LluisDalmauEconomistforAfrica&MiddleEastlluis.dalmau@LucaMonetaSeniorEconomistforEmergingMarketsluca.moneta@MaximeDarmetCucchiariniSeniorEconomistforUK,US&Francemaxime.darmet@JasminGr?schlSeniorEconomistforEuropejasmin.groeschl@Fran?oiseHuangSeniorEconomistforAsiaPacificfrancoise.huang@MaddalenaMartiniSeniorEconomistforItaly,Greec,Spain&Beneluxmaddalena.martini@AnoKuhanathanHeadofCorporateResearchano.kuhanathan@GuillaumeDejeanSeniorSectorAdvisorguillaume.dejean@MariaLatorreSectorAdvisor,B2Bmaria.latorre@MaximeLemerleLeadAdvisor,InsolvencyResearchmaxime.lemerle@SivagaminathanSivasubramanianESGandDataAnalystsivagaminathan.sivasubramanian@JordiBascoCarreraLeadInvestmentStrategistjordi.basco_carrera@BjoernGriesbachSeniorInvestmentStrategist&EurozoneEconomistbjoern.griesbach@YaoLuInvestmentStrategistyao.lu@MichaelaGrimmSeniorEconomist,Demography&SocialProtectionmichaela.grimm@PatrickHoffmannEconomist,ESG&AIpatrick.hoffmann@HazemKricheneSeniorEconomist,Climatehazem.krichene@PatriciaPelayo-RomeroSeniorEconomist,Insurance&ESGpatricia.pelayo-romero@KathrinStoffelEconomist,Insurance&Wealthkathrin.stoffel@MarkusZimmerSeniorEconomist,ESGmarkus.zimmer@3015/05/2025|Whattowatch09/05/2025|Whattowatch02/05/2025|Whattowatch29/04/2025|Eightlessonslearnedfrom20yearsofESGinvesting25/04/2025|Whattowatch17/04/2025|Whattowatch15/04/2025|Rethinkingclimateadaptationforglobalresilience11/04/2025|Whattowatch10/04/2025|RidersonthestormManaginguncertainty:UpdatedOutlook04/04/2025|Whattowatch28/03/2025|Whattowatch26/03/2025|Investinyourfuture:Howtosaveyourwayoutofemploymentvulnerability20/03/2025|Whattowatch18/03/2025|GlobalinsolvenvyReportThecorporatebattlefield:Globalinsolvenciesintimesofwareconomics-14/03/2025|Whattowatch11/03/2025|Plug,baby,plug:UnlockingEurope’selectricitymarket07/03/2025|Whattowatch06/03/2025|TheNewJediOrder:globalchipwarandthesemiconductorindustry27/02/2025|Whattowatch25/02/2025|Climateriskandcorporatevaluations20/02/2025|Whattowatch18/02/2025|Fromhard-to-abatetodecarbonized:StrategiesfortransformingEurope’sindustrialsector14/02/2025|Whattowatch13/02/2025|HowEuropecantakebackthewheelintheglobalautosector06/02/2025|Whattowatch03/02/2025|AllianzCountryRiskAtlas2025:Repeatandrewind?31/01/2025|What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