ChinaEnergyOutlook

2060

中國石化集團(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)研究院有限公司中國石化咨詢有限責(zé)任公司

編著

2025Edition

Editors

SinopecEconomics&DevelopmentResearchInstituteCompanyLimitedChinaPetrochemicalConsultingCompanyLimited

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060(2025Edition)EditorialBoard

Director:

MaYongsheng

ZhaoDong

DeputyDirector:

DaiZhaoming

GuSongyuan

BoardMembers:

LuoDaqing

LiZhi

WangPei

ChiefEditors:

LuoDaqing

LiuXiaoxiao

WangPan

WangPan

LiuXiaoxiao

QiMengdi

MaLi

JiangShan

WritingGroupMembers:

ChenQian

CuiYu

ChengNuo

CaoYong

ZhengBugao

NieHaoyu

ZhaoRui

SuiJinyi

GuanCong

KongXinyi

Abstract

Macro-environmentally,theglobaleconomymaintainssluggishgrowthamidpersistentinflationrisks.Developedeconomiesareintensifyingglobalgeopoliticalandeconomiccomplexitiesthroughaccelerateddeploymentofcarbon-centricgreentradebarriers.WhileChina'seconomyremainsfundamentallysoundwithlong-termgrowthprospects,itscurrentstructuraladjustmentphasecoincideswithstrongshort-to-mediumtermenergydemandfrombothtraditionalandemergingsectors.Theenergytransitionfacesdualpressures:surgingnon-fossilenergysuppliesconfrontabsorptionbottleneckswhilelow-carbontechnologycompetitionescalatesglobally,potentiallyacceleratingindustrialtransformation.Thistechnologicalrivalrymayultimatelyclarifyoptimaldecarbonizationpathways.Tofacilitateeffectivelow-carboncompetitionandenergysubstitutionwhileadvancingcarbonneutralitygoals,policyframeworksareevolvingalongthreedimensions:regulatoryfocusshiftingfromenergyconsumptiontocarbonemissions,policyinstrumentstransitioningfromdirectsubsidiestotarget-basedmechanisms,transitiondriversmovingfromgovernmentmandatestomarketforces.

Thisreportoutlinesthreedecarbonizationpathways-CoordinatedDevelopment,SecurityChallenge,andGreenDrive-alltargetingChina'sdualcarbongoals(2030peak,2060neutrality).KeyprojectionsintheCoordinatedDevolopmentScenario:

China'sprimaryenergyconsumptiongrowthisdeceleratingamidintensifyingcompetitionwithintheenergysector.In2024,totalenergyconsumptionreached5.97Billiontonnesofcoalequivalent(Btce),markinga4.3%year-on-yearincrease.Notably,non-fossilenergyconsumptionsurpassedoilforthefirsttime,risingto19.7%ofthetotal.Projectionsindicatesustainedgrowthuntil2030,afterwhichconsumptionwillplateau,withnon-fossilenergycontributingover80%toincrementaldemand.From2035to2060,totalenergyconsumptionisexpectedtodeclinefromapeakof6.94Btceto5.95Btce.

China’scoalconsumptionisapproachingaplateau.In2024,coaluseroseto4.85billiontonnesbutdeclinedto54%oftotalenergyconsumption.Thisvolumeisprojectedtostabilizeabove4.8billiontonnesannuallythrough2029,whileitsusagestructureshiftsrapidly:coalallocatedtopowergenerationwillincreasefrom54%to58%.By2060,totalcoalconsumptionisanticipatedtofallbelow0.5billiontonnes.

China'soilconsumptionisenteringaplateauphase.In2024,totaloilusefellto750milliontonnes,drivenbyweakindustrialdemand,slowingfuel-vehiclegrowth,andrapidsubstitutionbyrenewablesandLNG.Duringthe14thFive-YearPlanperiod,oilconsumptionisprojectedtostabilizeabove770milliontonnes,peakingat790-800milliontonnes,supportedbychemicalindustrydemand.By2060,itisexpectedtodropto260milliontonnes.

Naturalgasconsumptionhasreboundedtomedium-highgrowth.In2024,gasusereached430billioncubicmeters(Bcm)andisprojectedtorisebyover110Bcmduringthe14thFive-YearPlan,peakingat620Bcmbetween2035-2040.Industrialcoal-to-gasswitchingandLNGtrucksremainkeydrivers.By2060,consumptionisforecasttodeclineto420Bcm.

China’srenewableenergysectorfacesabsorptionchallengesdespiterapidexpansion.In2024,non-fossilenergysupplyroseto1.18Btce,ledbywindandsolar.Installedwind/solarcapacityhit1380GW,generating1800TWh.Short-termgrowthhingesonrateadjustments,whilelong-termsolutionslikegreenhydrogen,ammonia,andenergystoragewilladdressgridintegration.Non-fossilenergyisprojectedtoreach3.5Btce(50%share)by2045and4.7Btce(80%share)by2060.

Finalenergyconsumptionistransformingrapidlythroughdigitizationandelectrification.In2024,finalconsumptionreached4.26Btce,withaprojectedpeakabove4.6Btcebythemid-2020s.Electricityissettosurpasscoalasthelargestterminalenergysourceduringthe14thFive-YearPlan.Electrificationandhydrogenadoptionrateswillrisefrom32%(2024)to71%(2060).

Energy-relatedcarbonemissionsareplateauing.In2024,CO2emissionshit10.65billiontonnes(excludingchemicalproductcarbonfixation),withapeakabove10.8billiontonnesexpectedbythemid-2020s.Decliningcoal/oiluseandcarbonsequestrationfromindustrialfeedstockswilldrivereductions.By2060,residualemissions(2.1billiontonnes)willrequireCCUSandcarbonsinksforneutralization.

Contents

Chapter1

MacroTrends

Chapter3

Coal

Chapter2

InternationalEconomy

3

DemandForecast

25

DomesticEconomy

5

PeakAnalysis

27

Low-CarbonIndustry

7

Chapter4

Petroleum

PolicyOrientation

9

DemandForecast

31

TransitionScenarios

11

OilforTransportation

OilforChemicalIndustry

33

35

OverallOutlook

Chapter5

NaturalGas

PrimaryEnergy

15

DemandForecast

39

FinalEnergy

17

LNGheavy-dutytruck

41

Transitionpathway

19

GasforIndustry

43

CarbonEmissions

21

GasforPowerGeneration

45

Chapter6

NonFossilEnergy

Chapter9

Appendix

Chapter7

SupplyForecast

49

EnergySankeys

73

WindandSolarPower

51

CarbonSankeys

76

GreenHydrogen-Ammonia-Alcohol

53

DataTables

79

EnergyStorageandCCUS

AdditionalNotes

90

EnergyStorage

57

CCUS

59

Chapter8

FinalenergySectors

TransportSector

63

IndustrySector

67

BuildingsSector

69

Chapter1Macrotrends

lInternationalEconomyTheglobaleconomycontinuestoexperienceslowgrowth.Coupledwiththestrengtheningofthenewgreentradebarriers,itbringsnewchallengestoChina'seconomicandenergytransition

lDomesticEconomyChina'seconomicandsocialdevelopmenthasenteredastageofhigh-qualitydevelopment.Inthenearandmediumterm,theroleofenergyconsumptiongrowthinboostingeconomicdevelopmentwillremainsignificant

lLow-carbonIndustryThecompetitionintechnologicalpathsisquietlyintensifying,aimingtoquicklybreakthroughthebottleneckofnon-fossilenergyabsorptionandaccelerateandempowerthedeepdecarbonizationoftheenergysystem

lPolicyOrientationActivelyandsteadilypromotingcarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitywillpresentnewtrendsinaspectssuchascontrolpriorities,policymeasures,andtransitiondrivers

lTransitionScenariosInthenearandmediumterm,thetensionswithintheenergytrilemmawillbecomemoreprominent.Therearethreepossiblepathsforenergytransition:CoordinatedDevelopmentScenario(CDS),SecurityChallengeScenario(SCS),Green-DrivenScenario(GDS)

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends

3

InternationalEconomyTheglobaleconomycontinuestoexperienceslowgrowth.Coupledwiththestrengtheningofthenewgreentradebarriers,itbringsnewchallengestoChina'seconomicandenergytransition

GlobalGDPVolumeandGrowthRateGlobalGDPGDPGrowthRate

TrillionUSD

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

2020202120222023202420252026202720282029

Total

GDP

84.996.5

100.1104.5

110.1115.5121.3127.2

133.4139.6

Growth

rate

-2.8%6.3%

3.5%3.3%

3.2%3.2%3.3%3.2%

3.1%3.1%

ComparisonofGDPGrowthRatesofRepresentativeEconomies

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

ChinaUSAEUASEAN-5

2020202120222023202420252026202720282029

Intheneartomediumterm,theglobaleconomywillcontinuetoexhibitalow-growthtrend.Inflationrisksremain,andtheuncertaintyoffiscalandotherpoliciesisontherise.Meanwhile,developedeconomiesareacceleratingthebuildingsofnew-typegreentradebarrierscenteredaroundcarbonemissions.TheenergyandenvironmentalpoliciesoftheUnitedStatesundertheTrump"NewDeal"mayfaceashift,withtradepoliciesbecomingstricter.ThiswillposenewchallengestothedevelopmentofChina'straditionalmanufacturingindustriessuchassteel,aswellasthe"newtrio",whicharethemaindriversofexportgrowth.Theexternalpoliticalandeconomicenvironmentisbecomingincreasinglycomplex.

lThelow-growthtrendoftheglobaleconomywillpersist.Thedeclineininflationisslowingdown,policyuncertaintyisincreasing,andtherisksintheexternaldevelopmentenvironmentarerising.Duringthe15thFive-YearPlanperiod,duetothecombinedeffectsoffactorssuchaspopulationaging,adecreaseinnewemployment,andrisinggeopoliticalrisks,thepotentialeconomicgrowthratesofmajoreconomieswillcontinuetoslowdown.Developedeconomiesfacefurtherchallengesinreducinginflation,withincreasedupwardpressureontheUSdollar.Emerginganddevelopingeconomieswillalsobesubjecttoadversespill-overeffects.Asdebtrises,economicgrowthslows,anddeficitsincrease,thedebtsituationsofsomecountriesarenotoptimistic.Themultilateraltradingsystemisunderchallenge,andpolicyuncertaintyhasincreasedsignificantly.

lDevelopedeconomiesaresignificantlyacceleratingtheformulationofcarbon-tradingpolicies,andcarbon-tradingbarriersposenewchallenges.Developedeconomiesareconstructingnew-typegreentradebarrierswithcarbonemissionsatthecoretodominatetheformulationofanewroundofinternationaleconomicandtraderules.ThegradualimplementationofpoliciessuchastheEU'sCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism,theEU's"NewBatteryLaw",andtheUS"InflationReductionAct"willposenewchallengestotheexportsofChina'straditionalmanufacturingindustriesandcleanindustriessuchasthe"newtrio".

lTheenergyandenvironmentalpoliciesoftheUnitedStatesundertheTrump"NewDeal"mayfaceashift,withtradepoliciesbecomingstricter,presentingbothopportunitiesandchallenges.

Ontheonehand,policiesthatencouragethedevelopmentoffossilenergy,supportshaleoilandgasexploration,andrelaxtheapprovalrestrictionsonLNGexportprojectswillboosttheincreaseinglobaloilandgassupply,whichisbeneficialtoChina'soilandgasimportneeds.Ontheotherhand,undertheconceptsof"AmericaFirst"and"manufacturingreshoring",theUnitedStatesmayadoptmoreaggressivetariffpolicies,posingchallengestoChina'sexporttradeandpotentiallyacceleratingthetransferofrelevantindustrialchains.

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends

4

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends

5

DomesticEconomyChina'seconomicandsocialdevelopmenthasenteredastageofhigh-qualitydevelopment.Inthenearandmediumterm,theroleofenergyconsumptiongrowthinboosting

economicdevelopmentwillremainsignificant

PerspectivesonChina'sGDPGrowthRateandEnergy

ConsumptionGrowthRate

GDPGrowthRateThegrowthrateofenergyconsumption

averageannualgrowthrate

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

-1%

-2%

202020252030203520402045205020552060

GDPGrowth

Rate

5.7%

5.3%

4.6%

4.0%

3.3%

2.7%

2.3%

2.1%

2.0%

Energy

Consumption

GrowthRate

2.8%

4.3%

1.8%

0.6%

-0.2%

-0.6%

-0.9%

-0.8%

-0.5%

TheevolutionarytrendofChina'sindustrialstructure

PrimarySectorSecondarySectorTertiarySector

100%

Theproportionofindustrialaddedvalue

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

20202025203020452060

Theshareof

thesecondary

sector

39%

37%

34%

28%

25%

Theshareof

thetertiary

sector

55%

56%

60%

67%

71%

China'seconomicandsocialdevelopmenthasenteredastageofhigh-qualitydevelopment.Althoughinternalandexternaluncertaintiespersist,thelong-termpositivetrendremainsunchanged.Theshiftinthedriversofeconomicgrowth,theaccelerationofthenew-typeindustrializationprocess,andtherapiddevelopmentofnewqualityproductiveforceshaveinjectednewimpetusintothetransformationanddevelopmentoftheenergysector.

lChina'seconomyisatacriticaljunctureofstructuraladjustment,transformation,andupgrading,withhigh-qualitydevelopmentbeingthekeytounlockingthesituation.Intermsofthedevelopmenttrend,thefundamentalsofChina'seconomicdevelopmentremainintact.Astheeffectsofexistingpoliciescontinuetounfold,especiallywiththeintroductionandimplementationofincrementalpolicies,marketexpectationshavenotablyimproved.Theintroductionofaraftofincrementalpoliciesplacesgreateremphasisonenhancingthequalityofeconomicdevelopment,whilecoordinatinghigh

-qualitydevelopmentwithhigh-levelsecurity.Thesepoliciesnotonlyaddresstheprominentcontradictionsatpresentbutalsostrivetopromotethestableupwardmovementoftheeconomy,optimizeitsstructure,andsustainapositivedevelopmenttrend.Theacceleratedadvancementofthe"twopriorities"and"twonewinitiatives",alongwithmeasureslikeincreasinglocaldebt-resolutionresourcesby10trillionyuan,haveformeda"combinationofmeasures"fordebtresolution,reducingtheburdenonlocaldevelopmentandboostingitsmomentum.

lDespitethecontinuedexistenceofinternalandexternaluncertainties,theshiftineconomicgrowthdriversandtheaccelerateddevelopmentofnew-qualityproductivitymeanthatthegrowthrateofenergyconsumptionwillreboundslightlyintheshorttermandenteradeceleratingandpeakingtrajectoryinthemedium-to-longterm.Fromnowuntil2030,Chinawillmakeeveryefforttoachievehigh-qualityeconomicdevelopment,stableGDPgrowth,high-levelurbanization,andanexpansionofthepopulationwithhighereducation.Alltheserequireafurtherexpansionofthescaleofenergysupplyanddemand.Giventhepersistentrisksofexternalenvironmentaluncertaintiesandrelativelyinsufficienteffectivedomesticdemand,itisexpectedthatbefore2030,China'ssecondaryindustrywillstillneedtoplayastabilizingroleintheoverallmacro-economy.Itsaddedvaluewillaccountforapproximately30%ofGDP,supportingthetotalenergyconsumption.Theinternalstructuraladjustmentofindustrieswillhaveasignificantimpactonthevolumeandstructureofenergyconsumption.Theaccelerateddevelopmentofhigh-endmanufacturing,strategicemergingindustries,coupledwiththeupgradeddevelopmentofproducerservices,willcontributetoimprovingenergyutilizationefficiencyintheindustrysector.ThetransformationoftheendogenousdrivingforceofeconomicgrowthandtheaccelerateddevelopmentofnewqualityproductiveforceswillgraduallypropelChina'seconomicdevelopmentintoanewstageofhigh-qualitydevelopment.

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends6

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends

7

Low-carbonIndustryThecompetitionintechnologicalpathsisquietlyintensifying,aimingtoquicklybreakthroughthebottleneckofnon-fossilenergyabsorptionandaccelerateandempowerthedeepdecarbonizationoftheenergysystem

Therapiddevelopmentofrenewableenergy

Theproportionofelectricitygeneratedbysolar

900

ChinaEuropeNorthAmericaAfricaGlobalaverage40%

BillionUSD

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

800

energyandwindenergy

30%

20%

10%

0%

20002005201020152020202520302035

EnergyinvestmentsinChinainrecentyears

2015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Source：2024EnergyInstituteStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergySource：IEAWorldEnergyInvestment2024

Withthesurgeinnon-fossilenergysupplyandthebottleneckinitsabsorption,thedebateoverChina'senergytransitionpathhasresurfaced.Correspondingly,thecompetitioninlow-carbontechnologiesisquietlyintensifying.

lChina'slow-carbonindustrystartedrelativelylatebuthasdevelopedrapidly.Achievingasafe,orderly,green,andlow-carbontransformationoftheenergysystemfacesgreaterdifficultiesandchallenges.Takesolarandwindpowergenerationasexamples.AccordingtostatisticsfromtheEnergyInstitute(EI)intheUK,bytheendof2023,thecumulativeinstalledcapacityofwindandphotovoltaicpowerinChinareached1.05TW,accountingfor43%oftheglobaltotal.Thecombinedpowergenerationofwindandphotovoltaicpowerwas1.47PWh,accountingfor37%oftheglobaltotaland16%ofChina'stotalpowergeneration.Tenyearsago(in2013),thecumulativeinstalledcapacityofwindandphotovoltaicpowerinChinawasonly90GW,accountingfor21%oftheglobaltotal.Thepowergenerationofwindandphotovoltaicpowerwasonly0.15PWh,accountingfor19%oftheglobaltotalandlessthan3%ofthenationaltotalpowergeneration.Toacceleratethesolutionofthebottleneckinnon

-fossilenergyabsorptionanddevelopmentproblems,thestatehasintroducedaseriesofpoliciesandmeasures.

lInvestmentplaysanindicativeroleinthedirectionofenergytransition.Chinaistheeconomywiththelargestscaleofenergyinvestment,withtheproportionofinvestmentinrenewableenergypowergenerationexceeding40%,approximatelytwicethatoffossilenergy.AccordingtostatisticsfromtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),in2024,China'senergyinvestmentscalereachedashighas$0.86trillion,accountingfornearly28%oftheglobaltotalenergyinvestment,about1.5-2timesthatoftheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion.Comparedwith2019,China'sinvestmentinthefossilenergyfieldhasdecreased,whileinvestmentinrenewableenergypowergeneration,energyefficiencyimprovement,etc.hasincreasedbyabout70%.However,theinvestmentgrowthinpowergridsandenergystorageislessthan10%,whichisnotinlinewiththegrowthrateofpowersources.Duringthesameperiod,theEU'sinvestmentinpowergridsandenergystorageisslightlyhigherthanthatinrenewableenergypowergeneration.ToachievethegoalsproposedattheCOP28conference,suchasachievingnet-zeroemissionsintheenergysectorby2050,triplingtheinstalledcapacityofrenewableenergypowergenerationby2030,anddoublingenergyefficiency,accordingtothepredictionoftheIEA,globally,by2030,itwillbenecessarytoinvesttwiceasmuchasin2023inrenewableenergypowergeneration,powergrids,andenergystorage.ForChina,thetotalinvestmentinenergytransitionin2030willexceed$1trillion.

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends

8

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends

9

Regulatingcompetitioncategory

Targetconstraintcategory

?MeasuresfortheAdministrationofNaturalGasUtilization

?NoticeonDoingaGoodJobinthe

AccommodationofNewEnergyandEnsuringtheHigh-Quality

DevelopmentofNewEnergy

?GuidingOpinionsonVigorously

ImplementingtheRenewableEnergy

?NoticeonPromotingtheGrid

ConnectionandSchedulingOperationofNewEnergyStorage

?WorkPlanforImprovingtheCarbonEmissionsStatisticalAccounting

System

?DecisionoftheCPCCentralCommitteeonFurtherComprehensively

DeepeningReformsandAdvancingChineseModernization

?GuidelinesonAcceleratingthe

ComprehensiveGreenTransitionofEconomicandSocialDevelopment

?WorkPlanforAcceleratingthe

DevelopmentofaDual-ControlSystemforCarbonEmissions

?2024–2025ActionPlanforEnergyConservationandCarbonReduction

?GuidelinesonAcceleratingthe

DevelopmentofaWasteRecyclingSystem

PolicyOrientationActivelyandsteadilypromotingcarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitywillpresentnewtrendsinaspectssuchascontrolpriorities,policymeasures,andtransitiondrivers

Subsidyandsupportcategory

?SeveralMeasuresforVigorously

SupportingLarge-ScaleEquipmentUpgradesandtheTrade-inof

ConsumerGoodsforNewOnes

?ImplementationPlanforPromoting

EquipmentUpgradesintheIndustrialField

?ImplementationPlanforLarge-ScaleEquipmentUpgradesinKeyEnergyAreas

?AdministrativeMeasuresforSpecialCentralBudgetaryInvestmentin

EnergyConservationandCarbonReduction

Byreviewingandanalyzingrecentlyintroducedenergy-relatedpolicies,webelievethatinthecomingperiod,thepolicyorientationofChina'senergytransitionwill,basedonafirmcommitmenttothe"dual-carbon"goals,exhibitthreenewtrends.

lTrend1:Thefocusofinstitutionalcontrolshiftsfromenergyconsumptiontocarbonemissions,controllingintensityfirstandthentotalquantity.Currently,Chinaregardsthereductionofenergyconsumptionintensityasabindingtargetfornationaleconomicandsocialdevelopment.Accordingtothe"WorkPlanforAcceleratingtheEstablishmentofaDual-ControlSystemforCarbonEmissions",startingfromthe15thFive-YearPlanperiod,Chinawillimplementadual-controlsystemforcarbonemissionsthatmainlyfocusesonintensitycontrolandsupplementedbytotalamountcontrol.Aftercarbonpeaking,adual-controlsystemforcarbonemissionsthatmainlyfocusesontotalamountcontrolandsupplementedbyintensitycontrolwillbeimplemented.Thispolicyshiftwilldirectlyguidethegreenandlow-carbontransformationofenergyuseinvariousfieldsandindustries,acceleratethesubstitutionofnon-fossilenergyconsumptionandthepeakingandphasing-outoffossilenergy,promotethe"diversification"ofenergyconsumptionandcarbonemissions,andsupporthigh-qualityeconomicandsocialdevelopmentwithcleanenergyservices.

lTrend2:Policymeasureswillfocusontargetconstraints,encouragemarketcompetition,andweakendirectsubsidies.

Withtherapidincreaseintheproportionofnewenergyintheenergysystem,problemssuchasstableenergysupply,time-spacescheduling,andfullabsorptionhavecontinuouslyemerged.Currently,itseemsthatanylow-carbontransformationplanhasmoreorlessissuesregardingreliabilityoreconomy.Withthechangeinpolicymeasures,itisexpectedthatthegoalsforpromotingtransformationinvariousfieldsandindustrieswillbeclearerandtheconstraintsmorepowerful.Atthesametime,therewillbegreaterfreedominchoosingthespecificpathsforimplementingthetransformation.ThepathanddirectionofChina'sdeepenergytransitionwillgraduallybecomeclearerinthismarketcompetition.

lTrend3:Thesystematicnessandsynergyofpolicieswillbeenhancedagain,andthedrivingforceforenergytransitionwillshiftfrompolicy-ledtoindustry-driven.Withthelarge-scaleandmarket-orienteddevelopmentofthenewenergyindustryonthesupplysideandtheimplementationoflarge-scaleequipmentrenewalonthedemandside,China'senergytransitionwillbemorecloselyintegratedwithindustrialupgradingandeconomicgrowth,providingamorerobustinternaldrivingforcefromtheindustryforgreenandlow-carbontransformationanddevelopment.

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends

10

ChinaEnergyOutlook2060MacroTrends

11

TransitionScenariosInthenearandmediumterm,thetensionswithintheenergytrilemmawillbecomemoreprominent.Therearethreepossiblepathsforenergytransition:Coordinated

DevelopmentScenario(CDS),SecurityChallengeScenario(SCS),Green-DrivenScenario(GDS)

Safeandstable

SchematicDiagramoftheEnergyBalanceTriangle

Certainty:By2035,socialistmodernizationwillbebasicallyachieved,andtherewillbearigidgrowthinenergydemand.

Uncertainty:Theabundanceofvariousenergyresources,aswellasthestabilityoftheoperationoftheenergysystem.

Greenandlow-carbon

Certainty:Chinawillachievethe"dualcarbon"goalsasscheduledbyconstructinganewtypeofenergysystem.

Uncertainty:Thereliabilityandeconomicefficiencyofvarious

low-carbontechnologies,aswellastheimplementationpathofenergytransition.

Economicalandefficient

Certainty:Theenergytransitionwillnotdeviatefromtheeconomicreality,andthetransitioncostswillbebornefairlyandreasonably.

Uncertainty:Thedirectionofindustrialstructureadjustment,aswellasthesituationofindustrialtransferandspatiallayout.

Inthepastfewyears,China'slow-carbonindustryhasdevelopedrapidly,thesupplyanddemandofcleanenergyhaveshowedacooperativeincrease，andhistoricachievementshavebeenmadeinenergytransition.Thecriticalmomentsofreachingcarbonpeakandenergyconsumptionpeakwillcomeoneafteranother.Intheprocessofthecontinuoustransformationbetweenthenewandoldenergysystems,thebalanceoftheenergytrilemmaisfacingincreasinglyseverechallenges.First,theconnotationofenergysecurityisbeingexpanded,andtheoperationalsafetyoftheenergysystem,especiallythepowersystem,hasattractedmuchattention.Second,therearemultiplepossiblepathstoachievethegreenandlow-carbongoals,buttheyarenotperfectintermsofreliability,economy,etc.Third,theenergyutilizationcostincreaseswiththeincreaseofprocessingandconversionlinksandtheriseofstorageanddispatchingrequirements.Howtobeartheenergytransitioncostfairlyandreasonablyinthewholesocietyisbecomingamajorissue.

Tomaintainthedynamicbalanceoftheenergytrilemmaandachievethehigh-qualityeconomicandsocialdevelopmentgoalsandthe"dual-carbon"goals,webelievethattherearethefollowingthreescenariosforChina'senergytransitionenvironmentandpaths.

lCoordinatedDevelopmentScenario

Thegloballandscapemaintainsfundamentalstabilitywithorderlyrestructuringofindustrialchains,whilelocalizedgeopoliticalincidentsexertmanageableimpactsonbulkcommoditytrade.China'seconomycontinuesitshigh-qualitydevelopmenttrajectory,acceleratingtheestablishmentofmodernindustrialframeworks