本研究報(bào)告由海通國(guó)際分銷(xiāo)，海通國(guó)際是由海通國(guó)際研究有限公司，海通證券印度私人有限公司，海通國(guó)際株式會(huì)社和海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)其他各成員單位的證券研究團(tuán)隊(duì)所組成的全球品牌，海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)從事證券活動(dòng)。關(guān)于海通國(guó)際的分析師證明，重要披露聲明和免責(zé)聲明，請(qǐng)參閱附錄。(Pleas23Dec2025五糧液2025年經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商大會(huì)點(diǎn)評(píng)：共識(shí)驅(qū)動(dòng)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)Consensus-DrivenLong-TermGrowth觀點(diǎn)聚焦InvestmentFocus評(píng)級(jí)現(xiàn)價(jià)HTIESGE-S-G:0-5,(PleaserefertotheAppendixforESGcomment義利評(píng)級(jí)優(yōu)于大市OUTPERFORMRmb109.72Rmb161.001.4-1.3-2.5AA-來(lái)源:盟浪.Reproducedbyper市值日交易額(3個(gè)月均值)發(fā)行股票數(shù)目自由流通股(%)1年股價(jià)最高最低值Rmb425.88bn/US$60.51bnUS$299.93mn3,882mn43%Rmb143.48-Rmb109.72注：現(xiàn)價(jià)Rmb109.72為2025年12月23日收盤(pán)價(jià)1mth3mth12mth絕對(duì)值-6.2%-8.3%-18.0%絕對(duì)值（美元）-5.2%-7.3%-14.9%相對(duì)MSCIChina-7.3%-3.4%-47.1%RmbmnDec-24ADec-25EDec-26EDec-27ERevenue89,17574,44677,29681,382Revenue(+/-)7%-17%4%5%Netprofit31,85325,46226,12627,288Netprofit(+/-)5%-20%3%4%DilutedEPS(Rmb)8.216.566.737.03GPM77.1%75.1%74.0%73.2%ROE23.9%18.1%17.6%17.4%P/E(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)事件。在2025年白酒行業(yè)深度調(diào)整的背景下，五糧液于12月18日在宜賓召開(kāi)第二十九屆經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商大會(huì)，以“共識(shí)共建共享”為主題，明確了2026年“營(yíng)銷(xiāo)守正創(chuàng)新年”的發(fā)展方向，為行業(yè)提供了重要參考。三大策略應(yīng)對(duì)行業(yè)挑戰(zhàn)，以創(chuàng)新穿越當(dāng)前周期。當(dāng)前，白酒行業(yè)正經(jīng)歷由量?jī)r(jià)齊升向質(zhì)價(jià)平衡的轉(zhuǎn)型。今年大會(huì)首次將“共商共建共享”調(diào)整為“共識(shí)共建共享”，一字之差凸顯五糧液對(duì)廠商關(guān)系的重新定義。五糧液以三大核心策略應(yīng)對(duì)當(dāng)前環(huán)境：1）廠商關(guān)系重構(gòu)：從“零和博弈”轉(zhuǎn)向“價(jià)值共生”，將經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商納入品牌文化傳播與消費(fèi)者運(yùn)營(yíng)體系，打破傳統(tǒng)“壓貨-返利”的博弈邏輯。2）價(jià)格策略創(chuàng)新：面對(duì)價(jià)格倒掛，公司采用“補(bǔ)貼降成本+控量穩(wěn)價(jià)格”的組合拳，避免一刀切提價(jià)，通過(guò)高端控量、中端放量的方式，避免終端價(jià)格崩盤(pán)，維護(hù)高端品牌形象。3）國(guó)際化路徑突破：將“中國(guó)制造”升級(jí)為“中國(guó)品牌”，相較于于多數(shù)酒企一國(guó)一策的傳統(tǒng)模式，五糧液更強(qiáng)調(diào)通過(guò)文化輸出與本地化落地提升全球影響力。年輕化占比顯著提升，大眾市場(chǎng)滲透率持續(xù)擴(kuò)大。29度“一見(jiàn)傾心”作為面向年輕消費(fèi)群體的戰(zhàn)略產(chǎn)品，上市僅4個(gè)月動(dòng)銷(xiāo)額已達(dá)2億元。此外，公司目標(biāo)在2-3年內(nèi)將1618產(chǎn)品打造為百億規(guī)模的大單品，重點(diǎn)聚焦宴席場(chǎng)景。渠道端：2025年公司新增474家“三店一家”，終端直配已覆蓋20個(gè)核心城市，并計(jì)劃2026年新增專(zhuān)賣(mài)店80家，優(yōu)化低質(zhì)量專(zhuān)賣(mài)店，總量保持在1700家左右。行業(yè)或?qū)⒂瓉?lái)政策影響減弱，需求分層深化的特征。2025年禁酒令與以往三公消費(fèi)限制不同，其嚴(yán)格性與長(zhǎng)期性顯著。我們認(rèn)為短期最嚴(yán)階段為25Q3至年底，26Q1后影響有望減弱；長(zhǎng)期看，政務(wù)消費(fèi)場(chǎng)景消失，商務(wù)消費(fèi)趨于克制，政策或重塑白酒消費(fèi)習(xí)慣。我們預(yù)計(jì)2026年白酒各價(jià)格帶需求情況：1）超高端（1500元以上）：需求萎縮，因消費(fèi)預(yù)期不足及茅臺(tái)價(jià)格下行預(yù)期，但基數(shù)小影響可控。2）千元價(jià)格帶（1000-1500元）：需求恢復(fù)甚至增長(zhǎng)，受茅臺(tái)控量信號(hào)影響或刺激消費(fèi)心理。3）中高端（300-600元）：競(jìng)爭(zhēng)最為激烈，需求逐步穩(wěn)定，預(yù)計(jì)低個(gè)位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。4）大眾價(jià)位（300元以下）：受益于低度化產(chǎn)品及多元消費(fèi)場(chǎng)景擴(kuò)張，預(yù)計(jì)10%左右增長(zhǎng)。盈利預(yù)測(cè)與投資建議：我們預(yù)計(jì)2025-2027年公司收入為744/773/814億元，歸母凈利潤(rùn)分別為255/261/273億元，對(duì)應(yīng)EPS分別為6.6/6.7/7.0元（前值為8.2/8.7/9.3元）。參考可比公司估值水平，我們給于公司2026年24xPE（此前給予2025年20xPE目標(biāo)價(jià)由164下調(diào)至161元，維持“優(yōu)于大市”評(píng)級(jí)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：食品安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇，經(jīng)營(yíng)策略成效不及預(yù)hongwei.wen@jasmine.wu@23Dec2025223Dec20253稅金及附加銷(xiāo)售毛利率(%)銷(xiāo)售費(fèi)用銷(xiāo)售凈利率(%)研發(fā)費(fèi)用存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率(次)00應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)率（次）公允價(jià)值變動(dòng)收益000投資收益000000000000應(yīng)收賬款及票據(jù)1000存貨現(xiàn)金凈增加額折舊與攤銷(xiāo)在建工程短期借款000應(yīng)付賬款及票據(jù)000應(yīng)付債券000租賃債券23Dec20254APPENDIX1SummaryEvents:Againstthebackdropofdeeprestructuringintheliquorindustryin2025,Wuliangyeheldits29thDistributorConferenceinYibinonDecember18,themed"Consensus,Co-construction,andSharedBenefits."Theeventoutlinedthedevelopmentdirectionfor2026asthe"YearofMarketingwithIntegrityandInnovation,"providingimportantinsightsfortheindustry.ThreeCoreStrategiestoAddressIndustryChallengesandNavigatetheCurrentCyclewithInnovation.Currently,theBaijiuindustryisundergoingatransformationfromamodelofsimultaneousvolumeandpricegrowthtooneofquality-pricebalance.Thisyear’sconferencemarkedthefirstadjustmentfrom“co-deliberation,co-construction,andsharedbenefits”to“consensus,co-construction,andsharedbenefits,”highlightingWuliangye’sredefinitionofmanufacturer-retailerrelationships.Wuliangyeemploysthreekeystrategiestotacklethecurrentenvironment:1)Manufacturer-RetailerRelationshipRestructuring:Transitioningfroma"zero-sumgame"to"valuesymbiosis,"thecompanyintegratesdistributorsintoitsbrandculturedisseminationandconsumeroperationsystems,breakingthetraditional"inventorypressure-rebate"gamelogic.2)PriceStrategyInnovation:Facingpriceinversion,thecompanyadoptsacombinedapproachof"subsidy-drivencostreduction+volumecontrolforpricestability,"avoidingblanketpricehikes.Bylimitinghigh-endsupplywhileexpandingmid-tierofferings,itpreventsterminalpricecollapseandsafeguardsthepremiumbrandimage.3)InternationalizationPathBreakthrough:Elevating"MadeinChina"to"ChineseBrand,"Wuliangyeemphasizesglobalinfluencethroughculturalexportsandlocalizedimplementation,divergingfromtheconventionalone-country-one-policyapproachofmostliquorenterprises.Theproportionofyouthfulnesshassignificantlyincreased,andthepenetrationrateofthemassmarketcontinuestoexpand.Asastrategicproductaimedatyoungconsumers,29Degrees"hasachievedasalesvolumeof200millionyuaninjustfourmonthssinceitslaunch.Inaddition,thecompanyaimstodevelopits1618productintoamultibilliondollarlarge-scaleproductwithin2-3years,withafocusonbanquetscenes.Channelend:By2025,thecompanywilladd474"threestoresandonestore",withterminaldirectdistributioncovering20corecities.Itplanstoadd80newspecialtystoresby2026,optimizelow-qualityspecialtystores,andmaintainatotalofaround1700stores.Theindustrymayexperienceaweakeningofpolicyimpactandadeepeningofdemandstratification.Theprohibitionofalcoholin2025isdifferentfrompreviousrestrictionsonpublicconsumption,anditsstrictnessandlong-termnaturearesignificant.WebelievethatthemostsevereperiodintheshorttermisfromQ325thtotheendoftheyear,andtheimpactisexpectedtoweakenafterQ126th;Inthelongrun,thegovernmentconsumptionscenedisappears,businessconsumptiontendstoberestrained,andpoliciesmayreshapetheconsumptionhabitsofBaijiu.WeexpectthedemandofBaijiuin2026ateachpricezonetobe:1)superhigh-end(above1500yuan):thedemandwillshrink,duetoinsufficientconsumptionexpectationsandthedownwardexpectationofMoutaiprices,butthebaseissmallandtheimpactiscontrollable.2)Thousandyuanpriceband(1000-1500yuan):Demandrecoveryorevengrowth,influencedbyMaotai'svolumecontrolsignalorstimulatingconsumerpsychology.3)Midtohighend(300-600yuan):Thecompetitionisthemostintense,demandisgraduallystabilizing,andlowsingledigitgrowthisexpected.4)Popularpricerange(below300yuan):Benefitingfromtheexpansionoflow-endproductsanddiverseconsumerscenarios,itisexpectedtogrowbyaround10%.Grossprofitmarginforsixconsecutiveyears,25Q1cashflowperformanceisgood.Thecompany'sgrossprofitmarginforsixconsecutiveyearsofsteadyimprovement,Wuliangye/seriesofbaijiuproductsgrossprofitmarginreached87.0%/60.8%,respectively,theproductstructurecontinuestooptimize.Thedeclineof2024inthenetprofitmarginofthemotherismainlyduetotheincreaseinthemarketcostoftheinvestment.2020-2023netoperatingcashflowcontinuedtogrowin2024-37.2%year-on-year,mainlyduetothereductionofdealeradvancesandtheproportionofbillsettlementchanges.25Q1operatingcashflowof15.85billionyuan,+2970.3%year-on-year,mainlyduetothehigherproportionofcashcollectioninthequarterlypaymentandtheimpactofalowbaseinthesameperiodlastyear.InvestmentThesis:Weexpectthecompany'srevenuetobeRMB744/773/81.4billionfrom2025to2027,withanetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyofRMB25.5/261/273billionandcorrespondingEPSofRMB6.6/6.7/7.0(previouslyRMB8.2/8.7/9.3).Referringtothevaluationlevelofcomparablecompanies,wegivethecompany24xPEfor2026(previously20xPEfor2025),withatargetpriceloweredfrom164yuanto161yuan,maintaininga"Outperform"rating.Risks:Foodsafetyrisks,intensifyingmarketcompetition,andbusinessstrategiesyieldingless-than-expectedresults.APPENDIX2ESGCommentsEnvironmental:公司關(guān)注碳排放，產(chǎn)品碳足跡、水資源壓力和土地資源利用等問(wèn)題Social:公司關(guān)注勞工管理、健康和安全、人力資本發(fā)展和供應(yīng)鏈勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)Governance:公司關(guān)注對(duì)董事會(huì)、薪酬、所有權(quán)和控制權(quán)以及會(huì)計(jì)等公司治理結(jié)構(gòu)8