Changsha, October 10, 2009 21世紀的隱形冠軍 超越危機的戰(zhàn)略與領(lǐng)導藝術(shù) Hidden Champions of the 21st Century Strategy and Leadership Beyond the Crisis 赫爾曼 西蒙 教授 博士 Prof. Dr. Hermann Simon Bonn Office Haydnstrasse 36, D-53115 Bonn, Germany Tel. +49/228/9843-115, Fax +49/228/9843-380 e-mail: Internet: 9H01X043 - 2 - “中國諺語” Chinese Wisdom 風雨來時， 人或筑墻， 余者造風車 When the storm comes, some build walls, the others build windmills. 9H01X043 - 3 - 你了解危機的實質(zhì)嗎？ Understanding the Crisis? 宏觀經(jīng)濟背景 Macroeconomic perspective: 危機的根源 The root of the crisis 金融市場與實體經(jīng)濟 Financial vs. real markets 全球化的沖擊 The impact of globalization 政府的角色 The role of government 9H01X043 - 4 - 來也匆匆，去也匆匆 Steep Ascent, Steep Fall Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 2, 2009, p. 11 * German engineering firms 608010012014016098 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09新訂單 New Orders* 2005=Index 100 Dec. 2007 148.9 Jan. 2009 91.4 May 2009 66.1 9H01X043 - 5 - 危機如何影響行業(yè) How Crises Affect Sectors 前危機時代的變化 Changes in former crises (1980-2006) Education (e.g. tuition, textbooks) 教育 Reading (e.g. newspapers, magazines) 閱讀 Insurance: private and pension 保險 Health care (e.g. health insurance, services) 保健 Food at home 在家吃飯 Entertainment (e.g. event tickets, travel) 娛樂 Housing 住房 Tobacco products 煙草 Cash contributions 現(xiàn)金付款的交易 Clothing and services 服裝與相關(guān)服務(wù) Transportation 運輸 Personal care products and services 個人護理產(chǎn)品與服務(wù) Food outside of home 在外面吃飯 Total 9053432928-6- 1 0- 2 8- 4 5- 7 0- 7 8- 1 1 0- 1 0- 1 3Increased spending over period average Decreased spending over period average Source: Hermann Simon, Beat the Crisis - 33 Quick Solutions for Your Company, New York: Springer 2009. 9H01X043 - 6 - 一個產(chǎn)業(yè)的子行業(yè)受影響的情況 Process engineering (technology) Agricultural engineering Elevators and escalators Power systems Robots and automation Engine technology Compressor and vacuum technology Materials handling technology Fluid pumps Machine tools Precision tools Wood processing machinery Smelting and roller plants Construction and building material machinery Fluid technology Plastics and rubber machinery General air technology (ventilation) Mining machinery Foundry machinery Printing and paper technology Textile machinery Total 321313111110877664331-3-7- 1 4- 3 27358Revenue growth per 2009 Revenue drop per 2009 Revenue changes (in %) Source: Hermann Simon, Beat the Crisis - 33 Quick Solutions for Your Company, New York: Springer 2009. 9H01X043 - 7 - 超越危機 Beyond the Crisis? 危機將以何種形式發(fā)展 Course of the crisis: V, U, L, hysteresis or W? 社會政治后果 Socio-political consequences Social tensions 社會緊張 From deflation to inflation 從通縮到通脹 Public debt, higher taxation 公債，高稅率 More government regulation 更多的政府管制 Protectionism 保護主義 Worst-case scenarios 最壞的圖景 9H01X043 - 8 - 危機可能的發(fā)展形態(tài) Economic level Time V型 U型 L型 Hysteresis 遲滯型 W型 9H01X043 - 9 - Danger of protectionism 貿(mào)易保護主義的危害 2009年 4月的倫敦峰會上 ， G20國家承諾不制造新的貿(mào)易壁壘 ?，F(xiàn)在 WTO新的平衡狀態(tài)發(fā)人深省 。 新的關(guān)稅 、 配額和各種官僚主義的人為障礙使得世界貿(mào)易總額下降了 10%。 “At the London summit in April 2009 the G 20 nations promised not to create new barriers to trade. Now the WTO draws a sobering balance. New duties, quotas and bureaucratic hurdles have pushed world trade down by 10%. Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 4, 2009, p. 13 9H01X043 - 10 - 超越危機 Beyond the Crisis? 公司層面 ：危機是固本強身的機會 Corporate level: The crisis as a purification 去杠桿化，凈資產(chǎn)更重要 Deleveraging/equity more important 產(chǎn)品線更精干 Streamlining of product lines 重新平衡共給與需求 Rebalancing of supply and demand 并購的好機會 Acquisition opportunities 出現(xiàn)極端價格細分市場 Emergence of ultra-price segment A new modesty? 9H01X043 - 11 - 極端低價產(chǎn)品的出現(xiàn) Emerging Ultra-low Price Segment Tata Nano “One laptop per child” Nestl Pharmaceuticals/GSK From emerging to industrial countries? 9H01X043 - 12 - Tata Nano 9H01X043 - 13 - 誰是全球最大的出口國？ Who is No. 1 in Exports? China 中國 USA 美國 Japan 日本 Germany 德國 9H01X043 - 14 - 2008年出口總額 (單位： 10億美元 Billion US-$) Source: 2009 CIA World Factbook 293373458462469538566630777137714291463S p a i nB e l g i u mK o r e aC a n a d aU n i t e d K i n g d o m 英國N e t h e r l a n d s 荷蘭I t a l y 意大利F r a n c e 法國J a p a n 日本U S A 美國C h i n a 中國G e r m a n y 德國9H01X043 - 15 - 出口額 2000-2008 年 (單位： 10億美元 US-$ billion) 1 . 4 2 87624385931 . 2 2 09721 . 4 6 31 . 3 2 21 . 1 0 99719107521 . 3 7 71 . 0 3 71 . 1 4 89048197254006008001 . 0 0 01 . 2 0 01 . 4 0 01 . 6 0 02003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: WTO Trade Statistics in billion US-$ Germany 德國 China 中國 USA 美國 Year 9H01X043 - 16 - 什么是隱形冠軍？ What Is a Hidden Champion? 市場份額排世界前 3名，或者在本大洲排第一 Top 3 in the world or no. 1 on its continent 年銷售收入在 40億美元以下 Revenue below $4 billion 不為公眾所熟悉 Not well known in general public 9H01X043 - 17 - 隱形冠軍舉例 Hidden Champions Delo Baader Brainlab Lantal Brita Tetra Belfor 9H01X043 - 18 - 來自中國的隱形冠軍 Hidden Champions from China 中集： 46%的全球集裝箱份額 China International Marine Containers: 46% of global market for standard containers 比亞迪： 72%的全球手機電池市場份額 BYD Battery: 72% of global market for mobile phone batteries 上海振華港機： 35%的港口集裝箱 Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery: 35% of global market for harbor cranes 格力： 30%的全球家用空調(diào)市場份額 Gree: 30% of global market for household air conditioner 圣雅倫：指甲鉗大王 St. Allen: Nail clippers 9H01X043 - 19 - 中國占世界的市場份額 China: World Market Shares 9H01X043 - 20 - 中國中小企業(yè)扮演的角色 Role of small and mid-sized firms for China 中國今日的經(jīng)濟成就很大一部分歸功于中小企業(yè)“ China owes a great deal of its recent economic success to small and medium enterprises. 1990年 100萬家， 2001年 800萬家， 2008年 6000萬家。 1990: 1m, 2001: 8m, 2008: 60m small firms 貢獻了 60%的 GDP和 50%的稅收 Account for 60% of GDP and 50% of tax revenues 66%的專利申請 66% of patent applications 68%的中國出口 68% of Chinas exports 9H01X043 - 21 - 世界各國的 隱形冠軍 版本 Hidden Champions Worldwide Russia 2005 Japan 1998 Germany 1997 Italy 2001/2007 Brazil 2003 Netherlands 1997 Spain 1997 Poland 1999 Turkey 1999 France 1998 January 26, 2004 India 2006 Serbia 2007 Egypt 2008 Korea 1997/2008 China 1997/2000/ 2005/2009 Taiwan 1996/2004 USA 1996/2009 9H01X043 - 22 - 過去 10年最重要的變化 Key Facts of the Last Ten Years 100萬個新工作機會 1 million new jobs 年增長額幾乎達到 10%，銷售收入是 10年前的 2.5倍 Annual growth of almost 10% p.a., revenue 2.5 times larger than 10 years ago 新產(chǎn)生超過 200個億萬富翁 More than 200 new $-billionaires 全球市場份額大幅增加 Sharp increase of world market share 大規(guī)模的創(chuàng)新浪潮 Massive wave of innovation 9H01X043 - 23 - 隱形冠軍與金融危機 Hidden Champions and Crises 30%的公司曾經(jīng)在嚴重的危急中幸免于難 30% have survived serious crises 隱形冠軍從危急中獲利 Hidden champions profit from crises 市場是在艱難的時刻，而不是順利的時刻重新洗牌 Markets are redistributed in difficult, not in easy times 穩(wěn)健的財務(wù)是關(guān)鍵 Solid financing is crucial 9H01X043 - 24 - 他們?yōu)槭裁闯晒Γ?Why are they successful? 他們和大公司有什么不同？ How do they differ from large firms? 我們從他們身上可以學到什么？ What can we learn from them? 9H01X043 - 25 - 雄心勃勃的目標 Extremely ambitious goals: 關(guān)于市場領(lǐng)袖地位 Market Leadership 關(guān)于成長 Growth 9H01X043 - 26 - Chemetall凱密特爾 “凱密特爾的目標是成為全球范圍內(nèi)技術(shù)和營銷的雙重領(lǐng)袖！” The goal of Chemetall is the worldwide technology and marketing leadership. 9H01X043 - 27 - 3B Scientific 三畢科技 我們要成為并保持世界第一的地位！ We want to become and stay no. 1 in the world. 9H01X043 - 28 - Karl Mayer 卡爾 梅耶 “我們不希望我們的全球市場份額低于 70% We dont want our world market share to drop below 70%. 9H01X043 - 29 - 隱形冠軍的市場份額 Market Share of Hidden Champions 相對市場份額 Relative market share 絕對市場份額 Absolute market share 1.56 2.34 33.0% 30.2% 全球 World 今天 Today 10年前 10 years ago 10年前 10 years ago 今天 Today 9H01X043 - 30 - 增長 Growth 從隱形冠軍到“大冠軍” From Hidden Champion to Big Champion Fre se niusSAPWue rth020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200001995 2008Revenues in USD million9H01X043 - 31 - 增長 Growth 中型的隱形冠軍公司 Mid-sized Hidden Champions Cronim e tClaasEne rcon05001000150020002500300035004000450050001995 2008Revenues in USD million9H01X043 - 32 - 增長 Growth 小型隱形冠軍公司 Small Hidden Champions RationalBrainlabBarte c01002003004005006001995 2008Revenues in USD million 9H01X043 - 33 - 經(jīng)驗之一 Lesson 1 成功永遠源自于雄心勃勃的遠大目標 。 21世紀的隱形冠軍對于市場領(lǐng)袖地位和企業(yè)的成長壯志凌云 ， 這是促使他們前進的動力 ！ Success always begins with ambitious goals. The Hidden Champions of the 21st century go for growth and market leadership. This is the fuel that drives them forward. 9H01X043 - 34 - 聚焦與深度 Focus and Depth 9H01X043 - 35 - Uhlmann 烏爾姆 我們從來都只有一個客戶，將來也只會有一個客戶，那就是：醫(yī)藥行業(yè)。 我們只做一件事情，但是我們把它做好！ We always had one customer and will only have one customer in the future: the pharmaceutical industry. We only do one thing, but we do it right. 9H01X043 - 36 - Flexi 我們只做一件事，但是這件事我們比所有人都做得好！ We will do only one thing, but we do it better than anyone else. 9H01X043 - 37 - 求深不求寬：聚焦戰(zhàn)略的要旨 Deep Instead of Broad: A Focused Strategy The Case of Winterhalter Dishwashers for Hospitals Dishwashers for Schools Dishwashers for Hotels/ Restaurants Dishwashers Water Conditioners Detergents Service Dishwashers for Companies Dishwashers for Organisations 寬度 深度 9H01X043 - 38 - 縱深發(fā)展的價值鏈 Deep Value Chain 有關(guān)核心競爭力的部分絕不外包 No outsourcing of core competencies 無關(guān)核心競爭力的部分盡可能外包 Strong outsourcing of non-core activities 自己的機床設(shè)備 Own machine shops 技術(shù)研發(fā)守口如瓶 Very secretive in R&D 對戰(zhàn)略聯(lián)盟不敢興趣 Avoidance of strategic alliances 9H01X043 -