氣候變化與減貧政策

ClimateChangeandPovertyReductionPolicies齊顧波QiGubo2011.2.25TheStrategicInitiativetoSupportChina’sNewStagePovertyReductionandGrowthwithEquality(2011-2020)Sub-ReportFour氣候變化與減貧政策

ClimateChangeandP1研究背景

Background貧困人口適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力有限中國(guó)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的貧困人口面臨更大的氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)考慮氣候變化的減貧實(shí)質(zhì)是加強(qiáng)貧困人口氣候變化適應(yīng)性加強(qiáng)貧困人口的氣候變化適應(yīng)性包括提高抵御風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的自主適應(yīng)能力以及消除宏觀氣候政策所導(dǎo)致的生計(jì)脆弱性LimitedcapacityofpoortoadaptationtoclimatechangePoor’smoreriskstoCCinecologicalfragilezoneNatureofpovertyreductionwithintegrationofCCconsiderationistoenhanceresilienceofpoortoCCToenhanceresilienceofpoortoCCincludeimprovingautonomousadaptabilityandeliminatinglivelihoodvulnerabilityinducedbymacroCCpolicies研究背景

Background貧困人口適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力有限2Isclimatechangearisktolivelihooddevelopmentofpoorpeople,andathreatentopushpeoplebacktopoverty?Isclimatechangearisktoli3氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所導(dǎo)致的脆弱性正在成為引發(fā)貧困的重要因素

Vulnerabilitycausedbyclimatechangerisks:themaincausesofpoverty①生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)具有顯著氣候變化特征以及極端氣候事件發(fā)生的較大可能性，其生存脆弱性較高，形成較高貧困發(fā)生率

Ecotonesareofnotablefeaturesofclimatechangeandhaverelativelyhigherpossibilityofextremeweatherevents,thuspovertyincidenceishigherintheseareas數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：綠色和平組織，樂施會(huì)，2009；李周，孫若梅，高嶺等，1997。氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所導(dǎo)致的脆弱性正在成為引發(fā)貧困的重要因素

Vul4②無(wú)論是突發(fā)災(zāi)害，還是累積式的氣候變化，都對(duì)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的貧困人口的生計(jì)脆弱性造成直接影響。--災(zāi)害性貧困已經(jīng)成為中國(guó)農(nóng)村貧困的主要特點(diǎn)--累積式的氣候變化也對(duì)貧困人口的生計(jì)脆弱性造成很大的影響B(tài)othunexpecteddisastersandcumulativeclimatechangehavedirectimpactsonthelivelihoodvulnerabilityofpoorpopulationinecotones.

氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所導(dǎo)致的脆弱性正在成為引發(fā)貧困的重要因素

Vulnerabilitycausedbyclimatechangerisks:themaincausesofpoverty②無(wú)論是突發(fā)災(zāi)害，還是累積式的氣候變化，都對(duì)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的貧困5③生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與農(nóng)戶的特殊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)雙重作用于貧困戶的生計(jì)，加深其脆弱性。在生態(tài)脆弱帶，農(nóng)村貧困人口的生計(jì)脆弱性較高，抵御氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力很低。生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的大多數(shù)貧困農(nóng)戶，受到資產(chǎn)積累能力的限制，并不能減緩氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)戶生計(jì)脆弱性造成的威脅在邊遠(yuǎn)地區(qū)和少數(shù)民族地區(qū)更為顯著，同時(shí)更大程度地影響到這些地區(qū)的婦女的生計(jì)狀況。（如：瀾滄江流域某村氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與其他因素共同作用于婦女生計(jì)的案例）

Climaterisksofanecotoneandtheidiosyncraticshocksforthefarmersintheareahaveimpactsonthelivelihoodofpoorpopulation,atthesametime,worseningthelivelihoodvulnerability.氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所導(dǎo)致的脆弱性正在成為引發(fā)貧困的重要因素

Vulnerabilitycausedbyclimatechangerisks:themaincausesofpoverty③生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與農(nóng)戶的特殊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)雙重作用于貧困戶的生計(jì)6④氣候變化可以通過(guò)共生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而加深特殊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如：氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)致牲畜死亡和作物絕收，從而引發(fā)疾病和生命風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Climatechangecanincreaseidiosyncraticshocksthroughcovariateones.--Shocksofextremeweathereventssuchasdroughtandfloodsarecloselyrelatedtoidiosyncraticshockssuchasinjury,starvationandsuddendiseasesofasingleruralhousehold.氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所導(dǎo)致的脆弱性正在成為引發(fā)貧困的重要因素

Vulnerabilitycausedbyclimatechangerisks:themaincausesofpoverty④氣候變化可以通過(guò)共生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而加深特殊風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所導(dǎo)致7Then,whatmeasurements,atbothpolicylevelandlocalpeoplelevel,havebeendonetoreducesuchrisks?Havepovertyreductionpoliciesconsideredthoserisks?Havethosepoliciesrelatingwithclimatechangemitigationandadaptationreducedthelivelihoodvulnerabilityofpoorpeople?Howaboutlocalpeoples’action?Then,whatmeasurements,atbo8扶貧戰(zhàn)略措施與氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Povertyalleviationstrategiesandclimatechangerisks①在現(xiàn)有的扶貧策略中并沒有專門考慮氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。②小額信貸增強(qiáng)了農(nóng)戶的適應(yīng)能力；但不足以應(yīng)對(duì)突發(fā)災(zāi)害。③產(chǎn)業(yè)扶貧資金通過(guò)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整增強(qiáng)抗風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能力，但會(huì)忽視生計(jì)脆弱性高的農(nóng)戶。多類型、非單一的生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)有助于緩解氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)設(shè)施農(nóng)業(yè)有助于緩解生計(jì)的氣候脆弱性生計(jì)脆弱性高的農(nóng)戶難以獲得產(chǎn)業(yè)扶貧的支持Theexistingpovertyalleviationstrategiesdonotpayspecialattentiontoclimatechangerisks.--Microfinanceenhancesadaptabilityoffarmers,butisinsufficientforthemtodealwithunexpecteddisasters.--Industrialfundsforpovertyalleviationenhancetherisk-resistingcapacitybytheindustrialrestructuring,butoverlookthefarmerswithhighlivelihoodvulnerability扶貧戰(zhàn)略措施與氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Povertyalleviat9扶貧戰(zhàn)略措施與氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Povertyalleviationstrategiesandclimatechangerisks④最易受到氣候變化影響的農(nóng)戶不能受益于整村推進(jìn)扶貧的項(xiàng)目⑤自愿移民扶貧中貧困人口受到限制⑥以工代賑的方式為增強(qiáng)氣候變化的適應(yīng)能力創(chuàng)造一定條件農(nóng)田水利、電力、道路等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)提供了適應(yīng)氣候變化的條件--Thefarmersmostvulnerabletoclimatechangecannotbenefitfrompovertyalleviationprojectsofvillageapproach.--Poorpopulationfacesmorerestrictionsinpovertyalleviationthroughvoluntarymigration.--Work-reliefinvestmentispositiveinenhancingadaptabilitytoclimatechangetosomeextentinpractice扶貧戰(zhàn)略措施與氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

Povertyalleviat10氣候變化的緩解和計(jì)劃適應(yīng)政策與貧困人口生計(jì)脆弱性

Mitigationofclimatechange,adaptationpoliciesandthelivelihoodvulnerability自然保護(hù)區(qū)等生態(tài)敏感區(qū)的相關(guān)政策所配套的生態(tài)補(bǔ)償不足以緩解貧困人群的生計(jì)脆弱性生態(tài)敏感區(qū)的政策及其配套措施并不能緩解貧困人口的生計(jì)脆弱性在全國(guó)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)規(guī)劃中，對(duì)于八個(gè)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的19個(gè)重點(diǎn)區(qū)域規(guī)劃更多以生態(tài)保護(hù)行動(dòng)為主生態(tài)補(bǔ)償措施，多數(shù)在實(shí)質(zhì)上只是對(duì)貧困人口的經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)償，還未達(dá)到生態(tài)補(bǔ)償?shù)乃?，尤其未考慮到對(duì)緩解氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的貢獻(xiàn)Thepoliciesandsupplementarymeasuresforecologicallysensitiveareascannotreducethelivelihoodvulnerabilityofthepoorpopulation氣候變化的緩解和計(jì)劃適應(yīng)政策與貧困人口生計(jì)脆弱性

Mitig11氣候變化的自主適應(yīng)對(duì)緩解生計(jì)脆弱性具有直接的貢獻(xiàn)

Adaptationtoclimatechange:Reducinglivelihoodvulnerability①貧困人口的氣候變化適應(yīng)能力，以及計(jì)劃性適應(yīng)相關(guān)的各種政策和行政措施能夠在一定程度上緩解貧困人群氣候變化的脆弱性：基于傳統(tǒng)生計(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)下的應(yīng)對(duì)措施、替代生計(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、外部干預(yù)結(jié)合傳統(tǒng)生計(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行適應(yīng)、外部干預(yù)下進(jìn)行替代生計(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整適應(yīng)②各個(gè)生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)貧困人口面對(duì)氣候變化，均具備一定的自主適應(yīng)能力。Thepoorpopulation’sadaptabilitytoclimatechangeandvariousplannedadaptation-relatedpoliciesandadministrativemeasurescanreducethepoorpopulation’svulnerabilitytoclimatechangetosomeextent.氣候變化的自主適應(yīng)對(duì)緩解生計(jì)脆弱性具有直接的貢獻(xiàn)

Adapt12氣候變化的自主適應(yīng)在相應(yīng)的外部支持下能發(fā)揮更大作用

Adaptationtoclimatechange:Correspondingexternalassistance①協(xié)助將不可預(yù)期轉(zhuǎn)化為可預(yù)期②協(xié)助貧困人口制定災(zāi)害之前的救助計(jì)劃③協(xié)助貧困人口和社區(qū)運(yùn)用傳統(tǒng)與現(xiàn)代技術(shù)相結(jié)合的措施保證生計(jì)安全④外部支持的可替代生計(jì)可以通過(guò)增強(qiáng)儲(chǔ)備能力提高對(duì)氣候風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的自主適應(yīng)⑤提供工程技術(shù)和信息預(yù)測(cè)等服務(wù)，也有助于提高適應(yīng)能力Totransformtheunpredictableintothepredictable.TomakeassistantplaninadvanceTakethemeasuresthatcombinetraditionalandmoderntechnologiestoensurethelivelihoodsafetyAlternativelivelihoodstrategyInfrastructureandinformationservices氣候變化的自主適應(yīng)在相應(yīng)的外部支持下能發(fā)揮更大作用

Adap13Whatcanwelearnmorefromotherexperiences?Whatcanwelearnmorefromot14氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)納入減貧框架的國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)驗(yàn)

Foreignexperiences:IncludingclimatechangerisksinthePAframework①外部干預(yù)的緩解機(jī)制的總體框架：涉及政府、社區(qū)和市場(chǎng)各方②中國(guó)寧夏氣候變化適應(yīng)框架③社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移是應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化挑戰(zhàn)的一種有效方式④小額保險(xiǎn)機(jī)制作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和完善社會(huì)保護(hù)機(jī)制的具體措施能夠發(fā)揮作用。⑤資產(chǎn)框架—通過(guò)構(gòu)建和管理農(nóng)戶資產(chǎn)來(lái)緩貧--Thealleviationmechanismofexternalinterventionsconcernsgovernments,communitiesandmarkets.--Frameworkforadaptationtoclimatechange,designedonthebasisofNingxia’ssituation--Socialtransfersasaneffectivemeasure--Micro-insuranceasconcretemeasure--TheAssetsFramework氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)納入減貧框架的國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)驗(yàn)

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