GlobalMaritimeTrends2050

Commissionedby

GlobalMaritimeTrends20502

Contents

3Abouttheresearch

5ForewordbyLloyd'sRegister

7ForewordbyLloyd'sRegisterFoundation

9Introduction

11Globaltrendsoverview

Geopoliticalandmacroeconomictrends

Environmenttrends

Naturalresourcetrends

Technologicaltrends

Socialtrends

26Fourfuturesforthemaritimesectorin2050

Just,gradualtransition

Rapid,tech-driventransition

Regionalisedandfragmentedtransition

Delayedtransition

35Whatifscenarios

Whatifnationsembracewidespreadadoptionofgreenhydrogenby2050?

Whatifautomatedtechnologysolutionsbecamewidely

adoptedinthemaritimeindustryby2050?

Whatifregionalisationandpopulationexpansionleadto

deglobalisationandfragmentedglobalmaritimetradeby2050?Whatifaverageglobalsealevelsrisebyatleast40cmby2050?

48Conclusion

49Appendix:detailedliteraturereviewmethodology

51References

?TheEconomistGroup2023

GlobalMaritimeTrends20503

Abouttheresearch

GlobalMaritimeTrends2050isareport

byEconomistImpact,commissionedby

Lloyd'sRegisterFoundationandLloyd’s

Register.EconomistImpact’sresearchis

basedonapragmaticliteraturereview(seeAppendixforadetailedmethodology)and16in-depth,qualitativeinterviewswith

maritimepolicyandindustryprofessionals.

Findingsfromtheliteraturereviewwere

usedtoinformtheglobaltrendsoverview

andformedthebasisofourfourfutures.Wethenconducted16interviewswithexpertstobetterunderstandtheimplicationsofthesefutures,andwhatthesemeanforourfour

“whatif”scenarios(moredetailsontheseareavailableintheintroduction).Thefulllistofinterviewees,inalphabeticalorder,are:

?AndrewStephens,executivedirector,SustainableShippingInitiative

?BasilGermond,chairininternationalsecurity,LancasterUniversity

?BenAbraham,CEO,GlobalMarine,WillisTowerWatson

?DomenicDiFrancesco,Turing

researchfellow,AlanTuringInstituteanddata-centricengineer,AQ

?ElizabethPetitGonzález,headofcommunicationsandpartnerships,SustainableShippingInitiative

?HingChao,executivechairman,WahKwongMaritimeTransportHoldings

?Hyun-hoLee,executivevicepresident,HDHyundaiHeavyIndustries;managingdirector,MaritimeResearchInstitute

?JB-RaeSmith,vicepresident,UK

ChamberofShipping;director,PrivateGroupCompanies,JohnSwire&Sons

?JesperKristensen,groupchiefoperatingofficer,marineservices,DPWorld

?JohannahChristensen,managingdirector,GlobalMaritimeForum

?KatieHigginbottom,head,ITFSeafarers’Trust

?KevinForshaw,directorof

industrialandstrategicpartnerships,UniversityofPlymouth

?MarkBryan,seniorforesightmanager,FutureTodayInstitute

?NickBartlett,directorandleadfor

financialservices,insurance,transportationandmanufacturing,FutureTodayInstitute

?PeterThomson,UNsecretary-general’sspecialenvoyfortheocean,UN

?StavrosKaramperides,head,MaritimeTransportResearchGroup,UniversityofPlymouth

?StephenCotton,generalsecretary,

InternationalTransportWorkers’Federation

Ourthanksandgratitudegotothese

individualsfortheirtimeandinsights.1

?TheEconomistGroup2023

GlobalMaritimeTrends20504

ThereportwasproducedbyateamofEconomistImpactresearchers,writers,editorsandgraphicdesigners,including:

?MelanieNoronha:projectdirector

?MartinaChow:projectmanager

?AayushiIddaSharma:leadanalyst

?MartinKoehring:projectadviser

OtherEconomistImpactandEconomist

IntelligenceUnitcolleaguesalsocontributed

totheresearchbyengaginginaninternal

expertconsultation.Theseinclude:Ana

Nicholls,PratimaSingh,MatusSamel,Phillip

Cornell,SwarupGuptaandCailinBirch.

?TheEconomistGroup2023

GlobalMaritimeTrends20505

ForewordbyLloyd’sRegister

Overthepastdecade,themaritimeindustryhasmade

significantstridesinitsdecarbonisationjourney.The

introductionofEEDIin2013andsubsequentlyEEXIinand

CIIin2022havesignificantlyincreasedtheefficiencyofboth

newlydeliveredandexistingshipssince2013.Therecently

revisedIMOgreenhousegasstrategyhasnowsetrevised

targetstofurtherincreaseefficiencyandmovetheindustry

tonetzeroemissions,byorcloseto2050.

However,morecanstillbeachievedthroughmarket-based

measures,continuedgovernmentsupportandinternational

alignmenttoensureacommerciallyviableandgloballevel

playingfieldfortheindustryandfuturefuelproducers,

enablingthemtomakeimmediateandmedium-term

investmentplans.

Let’salsonotforgetthatoverthepastfewyearswehavehadaglobalpandemic

andseenwarbreakoutinEurope.Thesehaveledtospikesintransportneeds,

periodsofhighinflationandanuncertaingeopoliticallandscape.

So,aswecontinuethejourneytowardsamoresustainablefuture,itisnot

aquestionofwhen,butratherhowwewillachievetherequiredtransition.

Thatiswhythefuturelandscapesandthought-provoking‘WhatIf’

scenarioscreatedandexploredinthisGlobalMaritimeTrends2050report

aresovital.

Theyhelplaythefoundationtomeasurethesuccessandspeedofthe

transition,aswellasitsimpactontheentiremaritimeecosystem,including,

mostimportantly,theskillsandeducationofitspeople.

Plentyofresearchhasbeencarriedoutintowhatanenergysystemcould

looklikeintheyearstocome,butthisworkpurposelylooksatthewider

implicationsontrade,vessels,energy,portsandpeople,providingmaritime

stakeholderswiththeinsightstoenabledecision-making.

Inenvisioningthispathaheadandtherapidchangeswehave

experiencedoverthepastfewyears,digitalisationisalsoinseparablefrom

decarbonisationinthemaritimeindustry.

?TheEconomistGroup2023

GlobalMaritimeTrends20506

Byleveragingdigitaltechnologiesandtransformation,wecanoptimise

vesselspeeds,reducefuelconsumption,andenhanceconnectivitybetween

land-basedandmaritimelogistics.Thisintegrationholdsthepotentialto

notonlymakeourglobalsupplychainsmoreefficient,butalsosignificantly

reduceemissions.

Bydelvingintothepotentialfuturelandscapesinthisreport,wecanseethe

advantagesofacollaborative,tech-driven,leanerandmorevisibleindustry.

However,italsoworryinglyhighlightsthedangersofalackofglobalco-

operationandaslowandfragmentedtechnologyuptake.

Shipping,ofteninvisibletothepublic,needsgreaterrecognitionforitsvital

roleindelivering90%ofourgoodstoeightbillionpeople.

However,thewellbeingofthetwomillionseafarerswholabourdiligently

tomaintainourglobalsupplychainscannotbeoverstated.Theyare

thelifelineofourindustry,andtheireffortsareindispensable.Wemust

prioritisetheirneedsinthemarchto2050,offeringfairwages,appropriate

workandresthours,andensuringtheirhealthandsafety.Moreover,we

mustattract,educateandnurturenewanddiversetalent,empowering

themwiththeknowledgeandskillsrequiredtonavigatethechallengesand

opportunitiesofthefuture.

Aswestandattheprecipiceoftransformation,thisreportandthe

frameworkofthefourmaritimefuturelandscapesserveasacompass—

guidingusthroughtheseunchartedwaters.Itoffersinsightsintothe

complexitiesofourchangingworld,fromgeopoliticalshiftstoemerging

economies,andhighlightsthechallengesandsolutionsthatwillshapethe

maritimeindustry.

Wehopethisreportprovestobeavaluableresource,enlighteningandinspiring

readersastheygrapplewiththerealitiesandpossibilitiesofthefuture.

NickBrown

ChiefExecutiveOfficer,Lloyd’sRegister

?TheEconomistGroup2023

GlobalMaritimeTrends20507

Forewordby

Lloyd'sRegisterFoundation

Thefutureisfullofuncertainty.Theworldfacessome

incrediblytoughchallengesbothnowandinthedecades

tocome,whichareputtinghumanlivesandthehealth

oftheplanetatrisk.Thesesamechallengescomewith

opportunitiesforchange.Asastartingpoint,thisreport

exploreswhatthefuturemaylooklike,allowingus

collectivelytoprepareforwhatliesahead.

GlobalMaritimeTrends2050shinesalightonmanyofthese

challenges,includinganticipatedglobalpopulationgrowth

fromseventoninebillionpeople,withthebiggestincreases

expectedinAfricaandAsia.Whilemanycountrieswillhave

anageingdemographicwithpotentiallabourshortages

inthefuture,otherswillhavemuchyoungerpopulations

whoneedsafejobsandthechancetoearnadecentliving.

Providingopportunitiesfortheseyoungpeopletogaineducationandskills

shouldbeapriorityforallindustriesinthecomingyears.

Aswellaslabourchallenges,theseshiftsinourglobalsocietywillput

increasingdemandonurbandevelopment.Weneedreliableandresilient

infrastructureintherightplacesthatisfitforpurposenowandinan

ever-changingclimate,bothonlandandatsea.Peopleneedwater,food,

accommodation,communicationandtransportnetworksinordertostay

safe—andtheseareoftentheverythingsatriskinadisruptiveevent.

Thepandemicshowedusthatsupplychainscaneasilybeinterruptedif

resilienceisnotbuiltinattheoutset,puttinghumanlivesindanger.Large-

scaleinfrastructuremustberesilient,future-proofandbasedonsafe

engineeringpractices.

Thefuturemaritimesystemmustkeepgoodsmovinginasafeandmore

sustainablewaytomeetsociety’sneedswhilereducingtheimpactonthe

planet.Thismeansanenergytransitiontoalternativefuels,changesto

portinfrastructurearoundtheworldtoaccommodatevesselsofdifferent

sizesandfueltypes,andnewshippingroutes.

?TheEconomistGroup2023

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Risingsealevelsandurbandevelopment,bothonlandandascountries

buildoutintotheocean,affectcoastalcommunities.With40%ofthe

populationlivingnearthecoast,howdoweensurethatpeoplearekept

safeandhaveaccesstonewemploymentopportunitieswhilethese

changesoccur?Thisreportgivesapictureofwhatthistransitioncould

looklikeandhighlightswhatisneededrightnowforthetransitiontobe

effective,reliableandsafe.

Newtechnologiescanhelpreducethefragilityofourexistingmaritime

ecosystem,whichisnotjustaboutshippingbutincludesindustriesthat

operateatseaorrelyontheocean,suchasoffshoreenergy,underwater

cabling,aquacultureandbluefood.Theseindustriesallrelyonvesselsthat

needoperating,fuellingandmaintenance.However,thesetechnologies,

whichmaydevelopquickly,mustbesafeandbasedonstandardsthat

protectworkersandcommunities,andbeaccessibletoalltoavoiddriving

furtherinequalities.

Theoverarchingmessageinthereportisthatshipping,astheheartbeatof

globaltrade,hasanincredibleopportunitytobeattheforefrontofchange.

Aswemovetowardsadecarbonisedworld,shippingcouldbeashining

exampletootherindustries,withagenuinecommitmenttoafairand

equitabletransitionforthebenefitofall.

RuthBoumphrey

ChiefExecutive,Lloyd’sRegisterFoundation

?TheEconomistGroup2023

VesselsDesign,fuels,technologies

Ports

Portinfrastructureandlogistics

Maritimetrade Commercialshipping,energytransport,?shing

People

Skills,trainingprogrammes

GlobalMaritimeTrends20509

Introduction

Forthemaritimesector,aswitheveryother

sectorglobally,thetripleplanetarycrisis—

characterisedbyclimatechange,natureand

biodiversityloss,andpollution2—willbethe

definingchallengethatshapesthedecades

ahead.Globalshippingaccountsfor3%ofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,andthesectorisfarfromachievingthenecessaryemission

cutsneededtohittheParisAgreementby

2050.3Yetthissector,moresothanothers,isdeeplyintertwinedwiththenatureofglobalgeopoliticalandmacroeconomicchallenges.Shipsdeliver80%oftheworld’strade,4soanydisruptions,asdemonstratedbytheblockageoftheSuezCanalin2021,5arefeltacutely

acrosstheglobe.Amidglobalsupplychain

uncertainties,theurgentneedtodecarbonise,

theintegrationofnewtechnologies,concernsabouthumanrightsandsafetyatsea,and

thefutureoflaboursupplies,whatdoesthefutureofthemaritimesectorlooklike?

Theaimofthisstudywastoexplorepotentialfuturesforthemaritimesectorin2050,

understandhowthesewouldmanifestinhypotheticalandspecificscenarios,andhowthiswouldimpactkeycomponentsofthemaritimesector(seeFigure1).

Inordertodothis,EconomistImpactconductedanextensiveliteraturereviewbasedongrey

literature—forexamplefromtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),theUNConference

onTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD)and

Figure1:Keycomponentsofthemaritimeeconomy

Energy

Greenenergysupply,

ofshoreenergy

Maritime

economy

Source:EconomistImpact

?TheEconomistGroup2023

GlobalMaritimeTrends205010

Shipsdeliver

80%ofthe

world’strade

Globalshippingaccountsfor3%ofglobal

greenhousegasemissions

theInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)—aswellasacademicjournals.Theliterature

reviewidentifiedalonglistoftrendsthatareexpectedtocharacterisetheworldthroughto2050acrossfivekeyareas:geopolitics

andmacroeconomics;theenvironment;naturalresources;technology;andsocial.

Inassessingtheseglobaltrendsfor2050,

theliteraturereviewalsoaimedtoexplorehowthesemightmanifestinthenearterm(2030)andmediumterm(2040).Thefindingsoftheliteraturereviewwerethendiscussed,scrutinisedandvalidatedbyateamof

internalsectoralandmethodologicalexpertsatEconomistImpactandTheEconomist

IntelligenceUnit.Thefirstsectionofthisreportoutlinesthesetrendsinmoredetail.

Thetrendsidentifiedbytheliterature

reviewformedthebasisofthefourmaritimefutures,discussedinthesecondsection

ofthisreport.Theseareasfollows:

1.Just,gradualtransition:highglobalco-operationcombinedwithagradualuptakeofnoveland/oradvancedtechnology.

2.Rapid,tech-driventransition:highglobalco-operationcombinedwitharapiduptakeofnoveland/oradvancedtechnology.

3.Regionalisedandfragmented

transition:highglobalfragmentationcombinedwitharapiduptakeofnoveland/oradvancedtechnology.

4.Delayedtransition:highglobal

fragmentationcombinedwithaslowuptakeofnoveland/oradvancedtechnology.

Finally,EconomistImpactidentifiedfourspecific“whatif”scenariostobringeachofthesefuturestolifethroughqualitative,fictionalstorytelling,whicharediscussedinthereport’spenultimatesection.Assuch,thefourscenariosarenot

predictionsfor2050basedonquantitative

modellingorforecasting.Thoughfictional,the

insightsfromthesescenariosaregroundedin

thefindingsofourliteraturereview,extensivedeskresearchandthe16expertinterviews(seeAbouttheresearchformoredetailonthese).

Theaimofthesescenarioswastounderstandthetrendsthatwouldaffectthemaritimesectormorebroadly,aswellasthespecificimplicationsforpeople,ports,trade,vesselsandfuels.

Theseofferawindowintoafuturethatmay

manifestforthesectorandtheeffortsneeded

todaybyindustrystakeholderstoprepare.

Thefourscenariosweexploreareasfollows:

1.Whatifnationsembracewidespread

adoptionofgreenhydrogenby2050?

2.Whatifautomatedtechnology

solutionsbecamewidelyadoptedin

themaritimeindustryby2050?

3.Whatifregionalisationandpopulation

expansionleadtodeglobalisationand

fragmentedglobalmaritimetradeby2050?

4.Whatifaverageglobalsealevels

risebyatleast40cmby2050?

?TheEconomistGroup2023

1

Novelty

Isthistrendrelativelyneworfast-evolving,oristhispersistentandlongterm?

3

2

Transformative

Isthistrendlikelyto

signi?cantlychangethewaysectors/economiesoperate?

4

GlobalMaritimeTrends205011

Globaltrendsoverview

Mostofthetrendsthatwillshapetheglobal

economyin2050areextensionsofthecurrentstatusquo,albeitsomenewinfluencesare

emerging.Thischapterpresentsaselectionofthetrendsthataremostlikelytomaterialiseandtransformhowsectorsandeconomies

function(seeFigure2).Thetrendshavebeen

categorisedunderfivekeyareas—geopoliticalandmacroeconomic,social,environmental,naturalresources,andtechnology.The

followingdescriptionsalsofocusonhow

someofthemareexpectedtoevolveinthenearterm(2030)andmediumterm(2040).

Figure2:Guidingprinciplesfortrendsselection

Importance

Isitaresponsetosystemic

globalchallengee.g.shortageof

resources,climatechangeetc?

Applicability Doesthistrendafect arangeofdiferentgeographiesorsectors?

Source:EconomistImpact

?TheEconomistGroup2023

GlobalMaritimeTrends205012

Geopoliticalandmacroeconomictrends

1.GrowingpopulationsacrossAsiaandAfrica

Morethanhalfoftheprojectedincreasesinglobalpopulationnumbersupto2050will

beconcentratedinAsiaandAfricaacross

eightcountries,accordingtotheUN.TheseincludetheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,Egypt,Ethiopia,India,Nigeria,Pakistan,the

PhilippinesandTanzania.6Thepopulationin

Europewillcontinuetogetolder,andtheregionisprojectedtofacethehighestdependency

ratio7by2050,at75%.Bycontrast,Asiaand

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanareexpectedtohavethelowestdependencyratio,at56%,in2050.Africawillhavetheyoungestmedianage,at25by2050,8bywhichtimeitissettoaccountfor25%oftheworld’spopulation.9Anumber

ofmacro-andmicro-economicdynamicswillbeaffectedbypopulationgrowth,includinginternationalmigration,economicinequalityandacountry’sworkforce,butanyresultingeconomicgrowthdependsonagestructure.10

Morethanhalfoftheprojected

increasesinglobalpopulation

numbersupto2050willbe

concentratedinAsiaandAfrica.

Assuch,inthecontextofgrowingpopulations,AfricanandAsianeconomiescandevelopin

myriadways:largerworkingagepopulations

canspeedupinnovationandgrowth,buttheycanalsoaddtoexistingchallengesrelatingto

povertyalleviation,conflictandinequality.11

Regardless,changingdemographictrendswillhaveanimportantimpactonthemaritime

sector.AccordingtoInternationalTransport

Forumresearch,consumptionpatternsin

regionswithageingpopulationswillshift

towardsservicesandawayfromgoods.And,

intandem,theprocessofglobalisationbased

onlabour-costdifferentialsandoutsourcing

production,whichhasdrivenmaritimetrade

untilnow,willreachitslimits,leadingtoa

declineincargovolumes.12Inregionswith

growingpopulations,theconsumptionof

manufacturedgoodswillgrow.By2030

McKinseyestimatesthatthedevelopingworld(excludingChina)mayaccountfor35%of

globalconsumption,ledbycountriessuchas

India,Indonesia,Thailand,Malaysiaandthe

Philippines.13Moreover,householdconsumptioninAfricaisexpectedtoreachUS$2.5trnin

2030,upfromUS$1.1trnin2015.Nearlyhalfofthatwillbespentinthreecountries:Nigeria(20%),Egypt(17%)andSouthAfrica(11%).14

Inthiscontext,countrieswillneedtoinvest

inincreasingtheefficiencyandresilience

oftheirportsandlogisticsinfrastructureto

keepupwithgrowingdemandforimports

andconsumption.Populationchangesmay

alsoaffectproductiondynamicsandsee

theriseofdomesticsupplychainsacross

industries.15Maritimetraderoutesandlogisticswillneedtoaccountforthesechanges.

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GlobalMaritimeTrends205013

2.Deglobalisationandfragmentationbecomemoreentrenched

Astrendsemergingtodaybecomemore

entrenched,2050willbecharacterisedby

deglobalisationandfragmentation,which

placegreateremphasisonregionallinks,

near-andfriend-shoring,economicblocs

forregionalfreetrade,andprotectionist

policiestoprotectsomesensitiveand/or

strategicallyimportantsectors.16Supply

chains,tradeandstrategicallianceshavealsolongbeenshapedbyoilindustryinterests.

Increasingrenewableenergyadoptionand

moredecentralisedenergysystems(seebelow)willresultintradedisruptions(ascountries

reducetheirrelianceonoilimports),andin

thelongterm,moreregionalisedalliances.17,18Traderouteswillshiftinresponsetothis

transition,andnetworkswillberegionalisedasincreasinglywealthydevelopingcountriesusetheirimprovedeconomicpositiontorespondtoongoingfrustrationswiththeWorldTradeOrganization’sdisputesettlementprocess.19

Estimatessuggestthat,in2050,Asian

countries,namelyChina,India,Indonesia,SouthKoreaandJapan,willmakeup

halfoftheworld’stopteneconomies.

3.ThedominanceofAsianeconomies

ThecomingdecadeswillseethedominanceofAsianeconomies,drivenbyshifting

populationdynamics,newresourcedemandsandtechnologicalinnovations.20,21,22The

EconomistIntelligenceUnitexpectsChinatoovertaketheUStobecomethelargestglobaleconomyby2050,withanominalGDPof

morethanUS$80trn,comparedwitharoundUS$17trnin2022.23Thesameestimates

suggestthat,in2050,Asiancountries,namelyIndia,Indonesia,SouthKoreaandJapan,willmakeuphalfoftheworld’stopteneconomies.In2022theyaccountedforthreeofthe

ten.Thistrendwillbeaccompaniedbyde-

dollarisation;whilethedollarisexpectedtoremainstrong,itsgapwithothercurrenciesissettonarrow.24ApossiblenewBRICS25

currencywillonlystrengthenthedominanceoftheseemergingeconomiesfurther.26

Currently,thedollarisusedin84.3%ofcross-bordertrade,comparedwithjust4.5%for

theChineseyuan.ABRICScurrencyhasthepotentialtodestabilisethisdollardominantregime,meaningthatthesecountriescouldfundtheirentireimportbillsbythemselves.In2022,asawhole,theBRICScountriesranatradesurplusofUS$387bn,mostlythankstoChina.Moreover,theireconomicinfluenceisonlysettoriseinthecomingyears—and,assuch,countriesaroundtheworldarelikelytobemorewillingtodobusinessintheBRICScurrency.27Astheeconomicandpolitical

influenceofAsianeconomiesincreases,

maritimetradeintheregionwillcontinuetoexpand.Already,asof2021,Asianeconomiesaccountedfor43%ofmaritimeexportsand64%ofimports,andfourofthetopfive

countriessupplyingseafarerswereinAsia,withthePhilippinesholdingthetopspot.28,29

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4.Theregionalisationand/orlocalisationofconflicts

Remainingconflictsarelikelytobe

concentratedwithinregionsasglobalwars

becomemorecostly.Accordingtoa2012

statisticalmodeldevelopedbytheUniversity

ofOslo,30theproportionofcountriesfacing

internalarmedconflictswilldeclinefromaround15%in2009toanestimated7%in2050.The

modelexpectsthatthefewremainingconflictswillbeconcentratedinEast,Centraland

SouthernAfricaandinEastandSouthAsia.31AsweareseeingwiththewarinUkraine,regionaland/orglobalwarswillhaveconsequencesforthemaritimesector,inparticulartradeand

logistics.Theneedtosourcecommoditiesfromdifferentpartsoftheworldputsnewpressuresonmarinetransportinfrastructureandservices;fuelpricesincrease,therebyraisingshipping

costs,andinsomeinstancesregulartrade

routesaredisrupted.32Thatsaid,Russia’s

invasionofUkraineandenduringtensions

betweentheUSandChina—tonameacoupleofexamples—mayescalateintoaglobalwar.Thesewarswillbeglobal,asinlikelyinvolvinganumberofactors(includingNATOmembers).However,theyareunlikelytobeglobalin

theatre,asglobalconflictsarefoughtthroughnewand/ordifferentmeans(seebelow).

5.Security-firstspending,strategiesandpolicies

Persistentgeopoliticaltensionsandnewtechnologieswillheightentheimportanceofenergysecurity,defenceandmaritimesecurity,healthandfoodsecurity,and

cybersecurity.Therenewedfocusonenergysecurity,particularlyinlightofconflictssuchastheUkrainewar,isacceleratingtheglobalenergytransition(seebelow).33Energytradewillcontinuetobeacentralissue,particularlyinthetransitionperiod,ascountrieslook

todecarbonisewhileguaranteeingmore

traditionalenergysupplies.34,35,36More

localisedordecentralisedrenewableenergysystemscouldalsostabilisegeopolitics

andsecuritymorebroadly,asenergy

sourceswouldbelessconcentrated.37

Forthemaritimeindustry,itcouldmean

bringingagreaterfocustosecuringnew

energysources,suchasoffsho