古典增長模型

在早期的古典經(jīng)濟理論中，斯密、穆勒、馬爾薩斯和李嘉圖等人都曾涉及到經(jīng)濟增長（或剩余）同資本、勞動力的關系。他們認為，“剩余”的出現(xiàn)引起了資本的積累，資本的積累同時構成了對勞動力需求的增加，從而加大了就業(yè)規(guī)模和社會生產(chǎn)規(guī)模。而社會生產(chǎn)規(guī)模擴大的直接結果就是剩余的增加，再在更高的起點上重復前一過程。如此反復，從而帶動了經(jīng)濟的增長。這也就是經(jīng)濟增長理論基礎和經(jīng)濟曾長模型的理論依據(jù)。

古典增長模型

在早期的古典經(jīng)濟理論中，斯密、穆勒、馬1新古典增長模型

新古典增長模型(NeoclassicalGrowthModel)這一模型假定：1、全社會只生產(chǎn)一種產(chǎn)品；2、生產(chǎn)要素之間可以相互替代；3、生產(chǎn)的規(guī)模收益不變；4、儲蓄率不變；5、不存在技術進步；6、人口增長率不變。從而得到sf(k)=Δk+nk。式中：s為儲蓄率；k為人均資本占有量；y=f(k)為人均形式的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)；n為人口（或勞動力）增長率；Δk為單位時間內(nèi)人均資本的改變量。模型表明，一個經(jīng)濟社會在單位時期內(nèi)（如1年）按人口平均的儲蓄量被用于兩個部分：一部分為人均資本的增加k，即為每一個人配備更多的資本設備；另一部分是為新增加的人口配備按原有的人均資本配備設備nk。第一部分被稱為資本的深化，而后一部分則被稱為資本的廣化。

新古典增長模型新古典增長模型(Neoclas2精品資料精品資料3你怎么稱呼老師？如果老師最后沒有總結一節(jié)課的重點的難點，你是否會認為老師的教學方法需要改進？你所經(jīng)歷的課堂，是講座式還是討論式？教師的教鞭“不怕太陽曬，也不怕那風雨狂，只怕先生罵我笨，沒有學問無顏見爹娘……”“太陽當空照，花兒對我笑，小鳥說早早早……”發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學--ppt課件4Topic11.WhataretheassumptionsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?2.HowdoestheRicardiangrowthmodelexplaintheeconomicgrowth?3.WhataretheimplicationsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?Topic11.Whataretheas51、WhataretheassumptionsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?

1、Whataretheassumptionsof6

（1）、Naturalresources

（2）、Malthusianidea

（1）、Naturalres7Naturalresources1、Naturalresourcesconsideredthemainconstrainttogrowth.thisclassicalidea,theRicardianmodel,wasparticularlyappropriateinbritain,whichisanislandwithlimitedcultivableland.themarginalproductivtyoflabordeclinesasmorelandisbroughtintoproduction.自然資源被認為是經(jīng)濟增長的主要限制因素。這個古典理念,李嘉圖模型,特別適用于英國,這是一個島嶼有限的可耕種的土地。隨著更多的土地投入生產(chǎn)，邊際勞動生產(chǎn)率下降。2、incontrast,mostmoderntheoristsimplicitlybelievethattechnologywill"bailusout"asweapproachthelimitsofnaturalresources.recently,someeconomistshavereturnedtoricardianthinking.相反,大多數(shù)現(xiàn)代理論家含蓄地相信技術將“拯救我們“當我們接近極限的自然資源。最近,一些經(jīng)濟學家已經(jīng)回到了李嘉圖的思考。Naturalresources1、Naturalres8Malthusianidea

Themalthusianideathatpopulationsexpandsendogenouslywithoutoutput.whateveroutputgrowspopulationalsowillexpanduntilaverageconsumptiondropstotheleverofsubsistence.Inotherwords,wheneveraneconomyproducestoomuch,peoplewillprocreatetoexpandtheirnumbersuntiltheyreverttosubsistencelever.Thus,standarsoflivingaredoomedtostagnateForthisreasoneconomicsusedtobelabeledthedismalscience.Thistheoryisnotjustanantiquatedrelic,irrelevantforcurrentpurposes.Itappearstooperateeveninmoderntimesinpartsofasiaandafricawherepopulationhasgrownatroughlythesamerateasoutput.馬爾薩斯的想法:人口膨脹內(nèi)生沒有輸出。無論何時產(chǎn)量增長，人口也將擴大到平均消費水平下降到生存的杠桿。換句話說,當一個經(jīng)濟體的產(chǎn)品太多,人們會產(chǎn)生擴大他們的數(shù)字直到他們恢復生計桿,因此,標準的生活注定會停滯不前。因為這個原因經(jīng)濟學用于被貼上沉悶的科學。這一理論不僅是一個過時的遺物,為當前的目的無關。它似乎運作，甚至是在現(xiàn)代的亞洲和非洲部分地區(qū),人口增長大致相同的匯率作為輸出.Malthusianidea

Themalthusia9李嘉圖模型解釋了低收入國家在農(nóng)業(yè)停滯的狀態(tài)下進行工業(yè)發(fā)展必然受到自然資源制約的問題。如果工業(yè)化初期的人口迅速增長和食品供給的增長不相匹配，食品價格的大幅度上揚，會使以恩格爾系數(shù)高為特征的低收入居民的生活費用飛漲。這就會通過有組織的討價還價以及食品騷動對工資上漲產(chǎn)生很大的壓力。作為結果而發(fā)生的工資上升，可能會嚴重地打擊依賴于勞動密集技術的工業(yè)化初期的工業(yè)。對于這些發(fā)展中國家，除了在工業(yè)化的同時促進農(nóng)業(yè)技術進步外，似乎沒有其他辦法來擺脫李嘉圖陷阱。……顯而易見，發(fā)展中國家只要遵循發(fā)達的工業(yè)化國家以往的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率增長方式，就能擺脫李嘉圖陷阱（制約工業(yè)化初期經(jīng)濟增長的資源稟賦機制）李嘉圖模型解釋了低收入國家在農(nóng)業(yè)停滯的狀態(tài)下進行工業(yè)發(fā)展必然10WhataretheassumptionsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?1、laboristheonlyresourceimportantforproduction.2、laborproductivityvariesacrosscountries,usuallyduetodifferencesintechnology,butlaborproductivityineachcountryisconstantacrosstime.3、thesupplyoflaborineachcountryisconstant.4、competitionallowslaborerstobepaida“competitive”wage,afunctionoftheirproductivityandthepriceofthegoodthattheycansell,andallowslaborerstoworkintheindustrythatpaysthehighestwage.5、onlytwocontriesaremodeled:domesticandforeign

Whataretheassumptionsofth112、HowdoestheRicardiangrowthmodelexplaintheeconomicgrowth?發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學--ppt課件12Ricardointhecapitalisteconomicgrowthpointofview,themoderneconomicdevelopmentandeconomicgrowththeoryorigin,theoreticalsignificanceandvalue.李嘉圖對資本主義經(jīng)濟增長的觀點、代經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟增長理論的淵源具有理論意義和價值。Ricardointhecapitalistecon13theoreticalsignificanceandvalue1、Fromthethoughtsofeconomicdevelopmentevolutionperspective,ricardonegativeeconomicgrowthisinresourceinfinitesupplyconditions,isundoubtedlyprogress.Inthericardoago,AdamSmithandthelimitedresourcesgrowthrestrictionconditiontoinvestigate,rarelyconsiderthetotalpopulationphaselimitedresourcesandthecauseoftheproblem.Butintherealeconomicgrowthprocessperspective,anyeconomicgrowthonthebasisofanobjective,ricardiantheoryismoreclosetotheeconomicgrowthoftheobjectivereality,thisiswithoutadoubtprogress.theoreticalsignificanceandv14theoreticalsignificanceandvalue2、itispointedoutthatonecountrylong-termeconomicdevelopmentistheopeningtotheoutsideworld,andtheworldeconomyweldingprocess,isricardooneconomicdevelopmentofthetheory.Ricardoforeigntradeeconomicgrowthcanbediscussedrevealsthatwhenacountryeconomicdevelopmenttothestage,andtheworldeconomicintegration,foreigntradeandinternationaldivisionoflaborwillbeonecountryeconomicgrowthmechanismofthecomposition.Conversely,closedthedomesticmarket,howtoenormouslyfullofcompetitiveness,alsonotallowedbytheresourcesofthenationalwealthgrowthpotential.,anypursuitofdevelopmentshouldconsciouslyintheworldeconomy,withinthescopeoftheinternationaldivisionoflaborandtradetheinterestintoitseconomicgrowth.Ricardoargumentformostdevelopedeconomicgrowthhistoricalfactshaveproved.theoreticalsignificanceandv15theoreticalsignificanceandvalue3、Ricardoisthesourceofsocialwealthaccumulation,accumulatedandcausesofthewealthofthesocietydeterminants.Ricardianlaborproductivitytoeconomicgrowththoughts,totheeconomicgrowthinChinaandthechangeofthesustainabledevelopment,andhasreferencesignificance.Intheeconomicdevelopmentofacountryinitialstagetotheproductionelementsofthehighinput,highconsumption,attheexpenseofthepursuitofeconomyinspeedofexpansion,anddon'tpayattentiontothequalityofdevelopmentandthusbringeconomicandsocialproblems.Highinput,highconsumptionbringshighspeed,intheshorttermpricerise,addingtopopulation,resources,economic,andsocialcontradiction,causetheeconomicdevelopmentoftheviciouscircle.Growthisnotadvisable,itiseconomicunsustainabledevelopment,notonlytheabuseofresources,andthescenesandthesociety.Therefore,thetransformationofeconomicgrowthtointensivesustainabledevelopmentinourcountryhowgreatandfar-reachingsignificance.theoreticalsignificanceandv163、WhataretheimplicationsoftheRicardiangrowthmodel?

3、Whataretheimplicationsof17Thericardianmodelhasaclearimplication:inthelongrun,labor‘spercapitaconsumptionmustreverttosubsistencelever

李嘉圖模型有一個清晰的含義:從長遠來看,勞動的人均消費必須回歸生存桿

Thericardianmodelhasaclea18Topic2

1.WhatdoestheassumptionsoftheLewisgrowthmodel?2.HowdoestheLewisgrowthmodelexplaintheeconomicgrowth?3.WhataretheimplicationsoftheLewisgrowthmodel?Topic219

"Dualeconomy"referstothedevelopingcountry'seconomyismadeupoftwodifferenteconomicsectorscomposition.Oneisthetraditionaldepartment,andthesecondisthemoderndepartment."Dualeconomy"referstothe201.WhatdoestheassumptionsoftheLewisgrowthmodel?1.Theinfinitelaborsupply,laborforceshiftofthemarginalcostiszero2.Thesalariesoftheworkersisconstant3.Theefficiencyoftheindustrialsectorishigherthanagriculture.4.Highprofitallconversionforinvestment1.Whatdoestheassumptionsof21

Self-sufficientagricultureandsimple,retailbusiness,serviceindustry,laborproductivityisverylow,marginallaborproductivityclosetozeroandevenlessthanzero,unskilledlaborwagesisextremelylow,inthedepartmentofthepresenceoflargeamountsofdisguisedunemployment,butcontaindevelopingcountriesmostofthelaborforce.Self-sufficientagriculturea22TechnologyisadvancedGongKuangYe,construction,modernbusiness,services,accommodateemploymentlesslabor,laborproductivityishigher,wageleveltobehigher,inthetraditionaldepartmentabovewages.TechnologyisadvancedGongKua23Therearealargeamountofsurpluslabortraditionaldepartment'spercapitaincomeleveldeterminesthelowerlimitofmoderndepartmentwage,moderndepartmentfromthetraditionaldepartmentoflaborforcetoabsorbinalargeamount,andthebasicwagesremainunchanged.Thisisthecoreofthemodeltheory.Moderndepartmentprofitfromlaboroutputisgreaterthanthetotalpayrollpart,andconstantlyputprofitintocapitalexpandedreproduction,untilthetraditionaldepartment'ssurpluslaborisfullabsorption.So,themoderndepartmentgreatlyexpansion,thetraditionaldepartmentonlyinsurpluslaborisabsorbedafterthecompletionofthelaborproductivitytoimprove,thetraditionaldepartmentemployedincomecanimprove.Therearealargeamountofsu24

2.HowdoestheLewisgrowthmodelexplaintheeconomicgrowth?

25

從劉易斯模型可以看出，二元經(jīng)濟下的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展取決于多方面的因素

26

(1)兩部門；勞動生產(chǎn)力的高低(2)兩部門技術進步的類型(3)兩部門的工資水平，特別是現(xiàn)代部門的工資水平(4)人口增長率的高低(1)兩部門；勞動生產(chǎn)力的高低27發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學--ppt課件28

3.WhataretheimplicationsoftheLewisgrowthmodel?3.Whataretheimplicationso29

TheLewismodelimpliesthatLDCgrowthisindeedquitehopeful.Industrialistsareexpectedtomakeampleprofits.Thisencouragesthemtoaccumulatecapitalandexpandindustrysothedemandforlaborincreases.Themodelimpliesasteadyaccumulationofcapital,atleastuntilsurpluslaborisexhausted.Afterthat,thegrowthprocessrevertstoessentiallyneoclassicalgrowth.Solongasthewagerateremainslow,thecapital/laborratioutilizedinindustryalsoremainsconstant.Thustherateofreturnoncapitalstayshigh,therebyencouragingcontinuedinvestmentforKaccumulation.TheLewismodelimpliesthat30

劉易斯模型意味著LDC增長確實非常希望。工業(yè)家預計將使足夠的利潤。這鼓勵他們積累資本,擴大行業(yè)因此對勞動力的需求增加。該模型意味著一個穩(wěn)定的資本積累,至少直到耗盡剩余勞動力。在那之后,增長過程本質(zhì)上是新古典增長恢復。只要工資率仍然很低,資本/勞動比用于工業(yè)也保持不變。因此,資本回報比率保持高,從而鼓勵持續(xù)投資對K累積。劉易斯模型意味著LDC增長確實非常希望。工業(yè)家預計將使足31

(1)Theindustrialsectormustbeespeciallyencouraged,possiblybyattractingforeigncapitalistswhoinvestinviewofthelowwagerate.Alternativethegovernmentmightintervenetostimulatedomesticindustrythatisinitiallyprotectedfromimportcompetition.Inotherwords,industrycouldstartbyimport-substituting-industrialization.(1)Theindustrialsectormust32

(2)Savings,whichprovideforinvestmentbycapitalists,shouldbeespeciallyencouraged.Animportantinducementistoassureahighrateofindustrialprofitbyensuringthatwagesindeedremainlow,atleastuntilallthesurpluslaborisconsumed.Ingeneraltermsthisisdonebyextractingresourcesfromtheagriculturalsector(bytaxationorlowfoodprices)anddivertingthesetowardindustry.Lewisalsoexplicitlyrecognizedthepossibilityofstate-capitalism,andstate-bearingdirectresponsibilityforinvestment.(2)Savings,whichprovidefor33Lewisturningpoint"Lewisturningpoint"inshortisbeforethisturningpointherenomatterhowmanynewobtainemployment,wageswon'trise,thisisatypicaldualeconomydevelopment;Atthispointafterlaborsupplyisnotinfinite,salarybeginstorise,percapitabeginsmaterialitygroundgrowth,thisisatypicalmoderneconomygrowth.Lewisturningpoint"Lewisturn34TopictodiscussTheShortageofRuralLabors

andtheLewisianTurningPointinChinaTopictodiscussTheShortageo35DualeconomicMostdevelopingcountrieshavetoundergoadualeconomicdevelopmentprocess.Theoutstandingfeatureisthattherurallaborforcefortherestoftheindustrializedprovidecheaplaborsupply,wagegrowthisslow,employmentrelationshipworkersagainstincomegapbetweenurbanandruralareascontinued.Accordingtothedevelopmentoflogic,thisprocesswillcontinuetolaborforcefromtheinfinitesupplyintoshortage,growthmodetorealizequalitativeleap,intothemoderneconomicgrowthstagesofar.DualeconomicMostdeveloping36Duetothedualeconomicdevelopmenttheoryframeworkisputforwardbyeconomistslewis,therefore,thiskindoflaborforcefromtheinfinitesupplytotheshortageoftransformation,namelythedualeconomicstructuretransformation,alsoknownas"lewisturningpoint".Previousinternationaldevelopmentexperienceshowthatthebinaryeconomicdevelopmentstage,acountryorregioncanthroughtheformationofproductiveofthepopulationstructure,economicgrowthtoprovidepopulationbonus;Binarystructureconversionkey,isatraditionaldemographicdividenddisappearandchangethewayofgrowth.Duetothedualeconomicdevel37China'scurrentsituationInthereformandopeningperiod,China'srapideconomicgrowthisinbinaryeconomicconditions.Inthisperiod,workingagepopulation(16-64yearsoldpopulation)bigscale,highproportionandgrowing,sopopulationburdenislight,toensurethesufficientlaborsupplyandhighsavingsrate,foreconomicgrowthbroughtthedemographicdividend.China'scurrentsituationInt38Researchshowsthat,inthereformperiod,raisingpopulationthan(16yearsoldthefollowingand65yearsoldpopulationandtheratioofworkingagepopulationeachfellby1%,canincreasethepercapitaGDPgrowthof0.115%;Thatistosay,thepopulationthanraisingthedrop,toreformthepercapitaGDPgrowthduringthecontributionrateofupto27%.However,accordingtothepopulationagestructureprediction,by2013,withtherapidityofthepopulation'saging,China'spopulationthanraisingwillstopdownandturntoimprove.Also,thepopulationthanraisingeveryincreasedby1%,willmakethepercapitaGDPgrowthratereducedby0.115%.Researchshowsthat,inthere39Thetotalpopulationandagestructureisthebasisofthelaborsupply.Basedontheabovepopulationstructureoftheforecastandanalysis,wecanbesure,atpresentoriginatedincoastalareasandspreadinlaborshortage,nottemporaryphenomenon,but"lewisturningpoint"signsofarrival.If"lewisturningpoint"andwithoutaclearpointofwords,wecansay,China'seconomyhasenteredinto"lewisturninginterval".Thetotalpopulationandages40Thisjudgmentstillcanusethefollowingfactstoconfirm.Firstofall,30yearsthroughtheimplementationofthefamilyplanningpolicy,China'spopulationtransformationintoanewstage,thetotalfertilityrate(generallyunderstoodasawomanlifechildrennumber)haslessthan2.1replacementlevel,atpresentis1.7.Secondly,workingagepopulationgrowthratetodropyearbyyear,expected"11thfive-yearplan"periodfromthetotalamountcan'tmeetthenon-agriculturalindustry'slabordemand,long-termLaboursupplyisgreaterthandemandpatternwillbereversed.Thisjudgmentstillcanuseth41SuchaturningpointforChina'seconomywillbringwhatkindofchallenge?"Lewisturningpoint"isneverdevelopedtodevelopedeconomicturninggates.Inthisturningbefore,economicgrowthmainlybycapitalandlaborinputdrive,andafterturningpoint,economicgrowthdependsontheproductivityincreasetodrive.Therefore,therealizationoftheinputfromdependonthewaytoimprovetheproductivitygrowthdependsonthegrowthmodeofchange,canbe"lewisturningpoint"intopositivefactorsofthekey.Specificfor,inthisturningpoint,orhaveanticipatedthefollowingandeconomicgrowthchangesrelatedcharacteristics.SuchaturningpointforChina42First,thelaborshortageofcommoninurbanandruralareas.Onthesurface,inrecentyears,seemstobeanannualincreaseofemploymentisstillnotenoughtoabsorballurbanandruralsurpluslaborforce.Butasaresultofemploymentstatisticscannotfullycoversrealemployment,statisticalfiguresreflectedthenumberofjobsisfarlessthantheactualemployment.Forexample,intheconstructionsector,aformalintostatisticalworker,usuallycandrivethefivetotendidnotincludethestatisticalLaoWuGong.Andinmanylargestate-ownedenterprise,thisdidnotincludestatisticalworkersalsoaccountforallemployedalargeproportion.Inthecountryside,removeintothetownshipandvillageenterprisesemployment,transferredtotheurbanemploymentandagriculturalproductionneedtolabor,theso-called"surpluslaborforce",isactuallyemploymentbyage,sex,familystatusandotherfactorsofworkingagepopulation,theiremploymentchoicerangerelativelylimited.First,thelaborshortageofc43Second,ordinaryworkerswagesrise,sothattoimprovelaborcosts.Sincelate1990s,thecitynormallabormarketeachyear,experiencingdouble-digitwagerise,thisnotonlyoccurredinmonopolyindustries,alsooccurredinthemainabsorptionordinaryworkersemploymentmanufacturingindustries.Inurbanemploymentofrurallaborflowofwageincreasespeedevenfaster.Accordingtothefivebigcitiessurvey,in2001-2005period,foreignlaborhourwageincreasespeed,morethan64%highercitylocalworkers.Laborcosts,thechangetrend,haveforeigninvestmentorientationandenterprisemanagementstatehasproducedcertaineffect.Second,ordinaryworkerswages44Third,foralongtimetopromoteChina'seconomicgrowthwilltendtoreducethehighsavingsrate.Causethecauseofthesustainedhighsavingsrateinthreemain:first,thepopulationburdenislight,soeconomicsurplusproportionislarge;Secondly,ordinaryworkershouseholdincomegrowth,domesticdemandisinsufficient,whichleadstotheresidents'highsavingstendency;Thirdly,socialsecuritynotfullandexpectationsarenotstable,inducedresidentsthroughthesavingstorealizeselfinsurance.Butasthepopulationdeclinethanraisingspeedslowandwillsoonturnup,togetherwithordinaryworkerswagesrisewillchangetheoveralltendencyofconsumptionandsavingstendency,andthesocialsecuritysystemhasbeenimprovedgradually,andtheabovefactorswillhappenreversechangeofdirection,thusinevitablyinhibitsavingsrateinthetrendofsustainedhigh.Third,foralongtimetoprom45Ofcourse,laborsupplytrendchangeisstillonlyincrementalsense,Chineselaborcostandthedevelopedcountriesandmanydevelopingcountries,andinaquitelongtimewillstillbelow,thesavingsratefromhightolowchangealsowon'thappenovernight.Therefore,"theChineseeconomywillsoonloselabor-intensiveproductscomparativeadvantageandcompetitiveness"judgmentandworrystillpremature.However,thechangingtheenvironmentofeconomicdevelopmenturgentlyputforwardtherequirementsofthechangeinthepatternofeconomicgrowth.Cansay,China'seconomyisnowatacrossroads.Correctjudgmentdevelopmentphasechange,andusethisaspolicybasisforpropersystemadjustment,isthecurrentshouldmakereasonablereaction.Ofcourse,laborsupplytrend46Inparticular,weshouldbehowtodealwith?-Throughthedevelopmentalfactormarket,changethewayofeconomicgrowth.Laborgraduallybecomescarceelements,willcausecapitaldiminishingreturns,mainlyrelyonfactorofproductioninputgrowthmodewouldbedifficult.Thechangeinthepatternofgrowthofdemandistogivetheeconomicgrowthbasedontotalfactorproductivityincreasingbasedon,notsimplyfromthelaborintensiveindustrystructuretocapitalintensiveindustrystructure.Inparticular,weshouldbeho47Therefore,thecorrectwayistoconformtothetrendofproductionfactorendowmentchangeforinvestorsandenterprisetocreateasignalaccurately,thefunctionisperfectproductionfactorsmarketenvironment,andavoidt