全新世大暖期1、大暖期GreatOptimum8.5-3.0kaBPHypsithermal Megathermal2、中世紀(jì)暖期MedievalWarmPeriod900-1300AD3、小冰期LittleIceAge1550-1850AD4、全球平均氣溫（現(xiàn)代氣候變暖）近萬(wàn)年中國(guó)東部(a)、西部(b)及全國(guó)（c）年平均氣溫對(duì)20世紀(jì)的偏差（分辨率250a)YD之后，大約一萬(wàn)年前，氣候開(kāi)始回暖，進(jìn)入全新世。全新世中，溫度也有波動(dòng)，分為三個(gè)時(shí)期：1、進(jìn)入全新世后的2ka，氣溫回暖，波動(dòng)較大（新石器時(shí)代）2、8.5kaBP–3.0kaBP，氣候溫暖、穩(wěn)定（黃金期，人類文明發(fā)展于此時(shí)）3、之后，開(kāi)始變冷，但又有波動(dòng)：中世紀(jì)暖期、小冰期全新世中的冷期（kaBP）名稱

新冰期

小冰期第三冰期第二冰期第一冰期

序號(hào)012345678作者資料10.41.43.04.05.48.09.410.311.0Bond等深海沉積20.1,0.3

王紹武史料30.5~1.7~3.0

竺可楨史料40.3,0.51.73.03.5~4.0

龔高法考古，史料50.3,0.5

3.04.05.58.5~8.7

施雅風(fēng)孢粉，綜合6

3.85.08.5

安芷生黃土7

3.0

5.08.5~8.8

10.510.9王蘇民湖泊80.41.53.04.05.28.89.7

姚檀棟冰芯全球冰量根據(jù)冰川進(jìn)退推算的全新世以來(lái)的溫度變化高緯湖泊沉積，氧同位素低緯湖泊沉積，氧同位素非洲湖泊水位全新世大暖期溫暖、濕潤(rùn)，溫度比現(xiàn)在高2度左右Alti-thermalHypsi-thermalClimaticOptimum

中世紀(jì)暖期

近1.2ka中國(guó)東部（a）、西部（b）及全國(guó)（c）年平均氣溫對(duì)20世紀(jì)的偏差（分辨率50a）,虛線為整個(gè)序列的平均值Lamb小冰期

近1.2ka中國(guó)東部（a）、西部（b）及全國(guó)（c）年平均氣溫對(duì)20世紀(jì)的偏差（分辨率50a）,虛線為整個(gè)序列的平均值1380年以來(lái)的中國(guó)平均氣溫.(a)中國(guó)北部,(b)中國(guó)東部,(c)整個(gè)中國(guó),單位

C.(王紹武等2000)近千年溫度變化●Studiesontemperaturechangesduringthelastmillenniumareimportantto(1)understandthenaturalclimatevariability(2)comparewiththatduringthe20thcentury(3)attributetheglobalwarmingduring20thcenturytonaturaloranthropogenicfactor,orboth

SeriesWangetal.1996(W)Jonesetal.1998(J)Mannetal.1999(M)Crowleyetal.2000(C)Briffa,2000(B)Esperetal.2002(E)Briffaetal,2002Easperetal,2002千年平均溫度序列資料來(lái)源*代號(hào)年輪冰芯史料孢粉珊瑚洞穴冰川海冰作者M(jìn)JCBEW9(9)8(6)8(8)7(3)14(14)8(8)3(3)4(1)3(3)

8(8)

2(0)2(2)

7(7)

1(1)

2(2)

3(0)

3(3)

2(2)

1(1)

Mannetal.(1999)[3]Jonesetal.(1998)[4]Crowleyetal.(2000)[5]Briffa(2000)[6]Esperetal.(2002)[7王紹武等(1996)[9]*括弧中數(shù)字為達(dá)到900年以上長(zhǎng)度的資料站數(shù)

Table1Numbersofsitesusedinreconstruction

oftemperatureseriesforthelastmillennium

No.NorthernHemisphereSouthernHemisphereGlobeAuthorsMJCBEW8(8)10(4)15(15)7(3)14(14)20(20)4(4)7(3)

10(10)12(12)17(7)15(15)7(3)14(14)30(30)Mannetal.(1999)Jonesetal.(1998)Crowleyetal.(2000)]Briffa(2000)

Esperetal.(2002)Wangetal.(1996b)

Table2Datasourcesoftemperaturereconstruction(abbreviationasthesameasinTable1)

DatasourcesMJCBEWTree-ring9(9)8(6)8(8)7(3)14(14)8(8)Icecore3(3)4(1)3(3)8(8)Documentary2(0)2(2)7(7)Pollen1(1)2(2)Coral3(0)Borehole3(3)Glacier2(2)Seaice1(1)W序列所用30個(gè)代用資料站的地理位置

W序列所用30個(gè)站的近千年氣溫變化（℃）千年溫度序列的比較Table3Forcingfactorsusedinsimulation

FactorsDatasourcesAuthorsSolaractivityTree-ring14CStuiveretal.(1986)Volcanism(NH)IcecoreacidityPorter(1986)Volcanism(SH)IcecoreparticlesMosley-Thompsonetal.(1982)CO2IcecoreHoughtonetal.(1995)ENSOIcecoreDiazetal.(1994)Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13theseriesaregiveninTable4.

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

NoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

NoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

NoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

NoMJCBEWSM×

0.770.790.600.390.730.65J×

0.810.