操作管理-決策工具(3)2024/4/16操作管理決策工具(3)OperationsManagement

Decision-MakingTools

ModuleA2操作管理決策工具(3)OutlineTheDecisionProcessinOperationsFundamentalsofDecisionMakingDecisionTablesDecisionMakingUnderRiskExpectedValueofPerfectInformation(EVPI)DecisionTreesAMoreComplexDecisionTree3操作管理決策工具(3)LearningObjectivesStatethedecisionprocessDescribedecisiontables&treesExplaindecisionmakingunderriskComputeexpectedmonetaryvalueUsedecisiontables&treestomakedecisions4操作管理決策工具(3)Models,andtheTechniquesofScientificManagementCanHelpManagersTo:Gaindeeperinsightintothenatureof businessrelationshipsFindbetterwaystoassessvaluesin suchrelationships;andSeeawayofreducing,oratleast understanding,uncertaintythat surroundsbusinessplansand actions5操作管理決策工具(3)StepstoGoodDecisionsDefineproblem&influencingfactorsEstablishdecisioncriteriaSelectdecision-makingtool(model)Identify&evaluatealternativesusingdecision-makingtool(model)SelectbestalternativeImplementdecision6操作管理決策工具(3)AdvantagesofUsingModelsTheyarelessexpensiveanddisruptivethan experimentingwiththerealworldsystemTheyallowoperationsmanagerstoask“Whatif” typesofquestionsTheyarebuiltformanagementproblemsand encouragemanagementinputTheyforceaconsistentandsystematicapproachto theanalysisofproblemsTheyrequiremanagerstobespecificabout constraintsandgoalsrelatingtoaproblemTheycanhelpreducethetimeneededindecision making7操作管理決策工具(3)LimitationsofModelsTheymaybeexpensiveandtime-consumingtodevelopandtestTheyareoftenmisusedandmisunderstood(andfeared)becauseoftheirmathematicalcomplexityTheytendtodownplaytheroleandvalueofnonquantifiableinformationTheyoftenhaveassumptionsthatoversimplifythevariablesoftherealworld8操作管理決策工具(3)決策過程TheDecision-MakingProcess問題Problem決策Decision計量分析QuantitativeAnaly邏輯Logic歷史資料HistoricalData行銷研究MarketingResearch科學分析ScientificAnalysis模式Modeling計質分析QualitativeAnalysis感情Emotions直觀Intuition個人經驗和激勵PersonalExperienceandMotivation謠言Rumors9操作管理決策工具(3)決策問題DecisionProblem方案Alternatives自然的狀況StatesofNature結果Out-

comes問題的元素ElementsofaProblem10操作管理決策工具(3)DecisionProblemAlternativesStatesofNatureOut-

comes決策樹Decisiontrees決策表Decisiontables呈現決策問題解決的方法11操作管理決策工具(3)決策論Fundamentalsof

DecisionTheory有三種決策模式:在確定環(huán)境下作決策Decisionmakingundercertainty在風險下作決策Decisionmakingunderrisk在不確定環(huán)境下作決策Decisionmakingunderuncertainty條件Terms:方案Alternative:courseofactionorchoice狀況Stateofnature:anoccurrenceoverwhichthedecision makerhasnocontrol決策樹的符號Symbolsusedindecisiontree:決策點Adecisionnodefromwhichoneofseveralalternativesmaybeselected決策狀況Astateofnaturenodeoutofwhichonestateofnaturewilloccur12操作管理決策工具(3)狀況StatesofNature方案AlternativesState1State2Alternative1Outcome1Outcome2Alternative2Outcome3Outcome4決策表DecisionTable13操作管理決策工具(3)替代方案低中高小型設備$10$10$10中型設備$7$12$12大型設備(4)216報酬表操作管理決策工具(3)確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設備$10$10$10中型設備$7$12$12大型設備(4)216操作管理決策工具(3)概率性決策Probabilisticdecisionsituation不同狀況的概率性決策Statesofnaturehaveprobabilitiesofoccurrence選擇最大的金錢期望回報Selectalternativewithlargestexpectedmonetaryvalue(EMV)AveragereturnforalternativeIfdecisionwererepeatedmanytimes在有風險下進行決策DecisionMakingUnderRisk16操作管理決策工具(3)不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設備$10$10$10中型設備$7$12$12大型設備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大平均值或Laplace最大遺憾中取最小操作管理決策工具(3)不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設備$10$10$10中型設備$7$12$12大型設備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace最大遺憾中取最小操作管理決策工具(3)不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設備$10$10$10中型設備$7$12$12大型設備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遺憾中取最小平均數平均數平均數操作管理決策工具(3)最大遺憾值取最小不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設備$10$10$10中型設備$7$12$12大型設備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遺憾中取最小10-10,10-7,10+412-10,12-12,12-216-1016-1216-16操作管理決策工具(3)不確定環(huán)境下的決策替代方案低中高小型設備$10$10$10中型設備$7$12$12大型設備(4)216小中取大(10)大中取大(16)平均值或Laplace(10.33)最大遺憾中取最小(4)最大遺憾值取最小02630414100操作管理決策工具(3)EMVAVPVVPVVPVVPViiiiNN(()()()())=N=S*=*+*++*11122LNo.ofstatesofnaturePayoffProbabilityofpayoffAlternativeiEMV方程式ExpectedMonetaryValueEquation22操作管理決策工具(3)以圖解進行決策Graphicaldisplayofdecisionprocess問題解決UsedforsolvingproblemsWith1setofalternatives&statesofnatureDecisiontablescanbeusedalsoWithseveralsetsofalternatives&statesofnature(sequentialdecisions)DecisiontablescannotbeusedEMViscriterionusedmostoften決策樹DecisionTrees23操作管理決策工具(3)應用決策樹來解決問題AnalyzingProblemswithDecisionTrees

問題的定義Definetheproblem繪決策樹Structureordrawthedecisiontree決定不同的決策概率Assignprobabilitiestothestatesofnature計算個別狀況的回報Estimatepayoffsforeachpossiblecombinationofalternativesandstatesofnature計算它的投資回報率Solvetheproblembycomputingexpectedmonetaryvaluesforeachstate-of-naturenode24操作管理決策工具(3)12State1State2State1State2Alternative1Alternative2DecisionNodeOutcome1Outcome2Outcome3Outcome