9

THEREALECONOMYINTHELONGRUN長(zhǎng)久中實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)1/76ProductionandGrowth

生產(chǎn)與增加Chapter252/76ProductionandGrowth

生產(chǎn)與增加Acountry’sstandardoflivingdependsonitsabilitytoproducegoodsandservices.一國(guó)生活水平?jīng)Q定于它生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)能力。3/76ProductionandGrowth

生產(chǎn)與增加Withinacountrytherearelargechangesinthestandardoflivingovertime.即使在一個(gè)國(guó)家內(nèi)，生活水平也伴隨時(shí)間推移而發(fā)生了巨大改變。4/76ProductionandGrowth

生產(chǎn)與增加IntheUnitedStatesoverthepastcentury,averageincomeasmeasuredbyrealGDPperpersonhasgrownbyabout2percentperyear.在美國(guó)過(guò)去一個(gè)世紀(jì)里，按人均實(shí)際GDP衡量平均收入每年增加2％左右。5/76ProductionandGrowthProductivityreferstotheamountofgoodsandservicesproducedforeachhourofaworker’stime.Anation’sstandardoflivingisdeterminedbytheproductivityofitsworkers.6/76生產(chǎn)與增加生產(chǎn)率是指一個(gè)工人一小時(shí)生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)量。一國(guó)生活水平?jīng)Q定于它工人生產(chǎn)率。7/76Table1TheVarietyofGrowthExperiencesCopyright?South-Western8/76表1.不一樣增加經(jīng)歷Copyright?South-Western國(guó)別時(shí)期期初人均GDP期末人均GDP增加率（每年）

日本1890～1256美元26460美元2.81％巴西1900～65073202.45墨西哥1900～96888102.23加拿大1870～1984273302.04德國(guó)1870～1825250102.03中國(guó)1900～59839401.90阿根廷1900～1915120901.86

美國(guó)1870～3347342601.81印度1900～56423901.45印度尼西亞1900～74328401.35英國(guó)1870～4107235501.35巴基斯坦1900～61619601.16孟加拉國(guó)1900~52016521.169/76EconomicGrowthAroundtheWorld

世界各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增加Livingstandards,asmeasuredbyrealGDPperperson,varysignificantlyamongnations.人均實(shí)際GDP數(shù)據(jù)表明各國(guó)生活水平差異很大。10/76EconomicGrowthAroundtheWorld

世界各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增加ThepoorestcountrieshaveaveragelevelsofincomethathavenotbeenseenintheUnitedStatesformanydecades.最窮國(guó)家平均收入水平是美國(guó)幾十年來(lái)所沒(méi)有看到。11/76EconomicGrowthAroundtheWorldAnnualgrowthratesthatseemsmallbecomelargewhencompoundedformanyyears.Compoundingreferstotheaccumulationofagrowthrateoveraperiodoftime.12/76世界各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增加看起來(lái)很小增加率在許多年復(fù)利計(jì)算之后變得很大。復(fù)利計(jì)算是指在一個(gè)時(shí)期內(nèi)增加率累積。13/76CompoundingandtheRuleof70

復(fù)利計(jì)算與70規(guī)則魔力Accordingtotheruleof70,ifsomevariablegrowsatarateofxpercentperyear,thenthatvariabledoublesinapproximately70/xyears.依據(jù)70規(guī)則，假如某個(gè)變量每年按x%增加，那么在快要70/x年以后該變量翻一番。14/76AnExampleoftheRuleof70$5,000investedat7percentinterestperyear,willdoubleinsizein10years

70/7=1015/7670規(guī)則一個(gè)例子每年利率為7％5000美元投資在后價(jià)值翻一番。70/7=1016/76PRODUCTIVITY:ITSROLEANDDETERMINANTS

生產(chǎn)率:作用及決定原因Productivityplaysakeyroleindetermininglivingstandardsforallnationsintheworld.

生產(chǎn)率在決定世界上全部國(guó)家生活水平方面起著關(guān)鍵作用。17/76WhyProductivityIsSoImportant

為何生產(chǎn)率如此主要Productivityreferstothequantityofgoodsandservicesthataworkercanproducefromeachhourofwork.生產(chǎn)率是指一個(gè)工人一小時(shí)內(nèi)所生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)量。18/76WhyProductivityIsSoImportant

為何生產(chǎn)率如此主要Tounderstandthelargedifferencesinlivingstandardsacrosscountries.Wemustfocusontheproductionofgoodsandservices.為了了解各國(guó)生活水平巨大差異，我們必須集中在物品與勞務(wù)生產(chǎn)上。19/76HowProductivityIsDetermined

生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定Theinputsusedtoproducegoodsandservicesarecalledthefactorsofproduction.

用于生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)投入被稱為生產(chǎn)要素Thefactorsofproductiondirectlydetermineproductivity.

生產(chǎn)要素直接決定了生產(chǎn)率。20/76HowProductivityIsDetermined

生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定TheFactorsofProduction

生產(chǎn)要素Physicalcapital物質(zhì)資本Humancapital人力資本Naturalresources自然資源Technologicalknowledge技術(shù)知識(shí)21/76HowProductivityIsDeterminedPhysicalCapitalisaproducedfactorofproduction.Itisaninputintotheproductionprocessthatinthepastwasanoutputfromtheproductionprocess.isthestockofequipmentandstructuresthatareusedtoproducegoodsandservices.Toolsusedtobuildorrepairautomobiles.Toolsusedtobuildfurniture.Officebuildings,schools,etc.22/76生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定物質(zhì)資本是生產(chǎn)出來(lái)生產(chǎn)要素。它是生產(chǎn)過(guò)程投入，也是過(guò)去生產(chǎn)過(guò)程產(chǎn)出。是用于生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)設(shè)備與建筑物存量。用于生產(chǎn)或修理汽車工具。用于生產(chǎn)家俱工具。辦公樓，學(xué)校等等…23/76HowProductivityIsDeterminedHumanCapitaltheeconomist’stermfortheknowledgeandskillsthatworkersacquirethrougheducation,training,andexperienceLikephysicalcapital,humancapitalraisesanation’sabilitytoproducegoodsandservices.24/76生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定人力資本經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用來(lái)指工人經(jīng)過(guò)教育、培訓(xùn)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)而取得知識(shí)和技能一個(gè)術(shù)語(yǔ)。

和物質(zhì)資本一樣，人力資本提升一個(gè)國(guó)家生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)能力。25/76HowProductivityIsDeterminedNaturalResourcesinputsusedinproductionthatareprovidedbynature,suchasland,rivers,andmineraldeposits.Renewableresourcesincludetreesandforests.Nonrenewableresourcesincludepetroleumandcoal.canbeimportantbutarenotnecessaryforaneconomytobehighlyproductiveinproducinggoodsandservices.26/76生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定自然資源由自然界提供用于生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)投入，如土地、河流和礦藏。可再生資源包含樹(shù)木和森林。不可再生資源包含石油和煤炭?？赡苁侵饕鼈儾⒉皇且粋€(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)中生產(chǎn)率高必要條件。27/76HowProductivityIsDeterminedTechnologicalKnowledgesociety’sunderstandingofthebestwaystoproducegoodsandservices.Humancapital

referstotheresourcesexpendedtransmittingthisunderstandingtothelaborforce.28/76生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定技術(shù)知識(shí)社會(huì)對(duì)生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)最好方法了解。

人力資本是指把這些了解傳遞給勞動(dòng)力資源消耗。29/76TheProductionFunction生產(chǎn)函數(shù)Economistsoftenuseaproductionfunctiontodescribetherelationshipbetweenthequantityofinputsusedinproductionandthequantityofoutputfromproduction.經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家經(jīng)慣用生產(chǎn)函數(shù)來(lái)描述用于生產(chǎn)投入量和生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出量之間關(guān)系。30/76TheProductionFunctionY=AF(L,K,H,N)

Y

=quantityofoutput

A=availableproductiontechnology

L

=quantityoflabor

K

=quantityofphysicalcapital

H=quantityofhumancapital

N=quantityofnaturalresources

F()

isafunctionthatshowshowthe inputsarecombined.

31/76生產(chǎn)函數(shù)Y=AF(L,K,H,N)

Y

=產(chǎn)出量

A=可得到生產(chǎn)技術(shù)

L

=勞動(dòng)量

K

=物質(zhì)資本量

H=人力資本量

N=自然資源量

F()

是一個(gè)表示投入怎樣結(jié)合起來(lái)以生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出函數(shù)。32/76TheProductionFunction生產(chǎn)函數(shù)Aproductionfunctionhasconstantreturnstoscaleif,foranypositivenumberx,

假如給定任何一個(gè)正數(shù)x，下式成立，則該生產(chǎn)函數(shù)規(guī)模收益不變。xY=AF(xL,xK,xH,xN)Thatis,adoublingofallinputscausestheamountofoutputtodoubleaswell.

這就是說(shuō)，投入翻倍就會(huì)使產(chǎn)出翻倍。33/76TheProductionFunctionProductionfunctionswithconstantreturnstoscalehaveaninterestingimplication.Setting

x=1/L,Y/

L=AF(1,K/

L,H/

L,N/

L)

Where:

Y/L=outputperworker

K/L=physicalcapitalperworker

H/L=humancapitalperworker

N/L=naturalresourcesperworker34/76生產(chǎn)函數(shù)規(guī)模收益不變生產(chǎn)函數(shù)有一個(gè)令人感興趣含義。設(shè)

x=1/L,Y/

L=AF(1,K/

L,H/

L,N/

L)

這里:

Y/L=每個(gè)工人產(chǎn)量

K/L=每個(gè)工人物質(zhì)資本

H/L=每個(gè)工人人力資本

N/L=每個(gè)工人自然資源35/76TheProductionFunctionTheprecedingequationsaysthatproductivity(Y/L)dependsonphysicalcapitalperworker(K/L),humancapitalperworker(H/L),andnaturalresourcesperworker(N/L),aswellasthestateoftechnology,(A).36/76生產(chǎn)函數(shù)這個(gè)公式說(shuō)明，生產(chǎn)率(Y/L)取決于每個(gè)工人物質(zhì)資本

(K/L)，每個(gè)工人人力資本(H/L)，每個(gè)工人自然資源，(N/L)，以及技術(shù)情況

(A).37/76EconomicGrowthandPublicPolicy

經(jīng)濟(jì)增加與公共政策Governmentscandomanythingstoraiseproductivityandlivingstandards.政府能夠做很多事情來(lái)提升生產(chǎn)率和生活水平。38/76ECONOMICGROWTHANDPUBLICPOLICY

GovernmentPoliciesThatRaiseProductivityandLivingStandardsEncouragesavingandinvestment.EncourageinvestmentfromabroadEncourageeducationandtraining.Establishsecurepropertyrightsandmaintainpoliticalstability.Promotefreetrade.Promoteresearchanddevelopment.39/76經(jīng)濟(jì)增加與公共政策提升生產(chǎn)率和生活水平政府政策勉勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄和投資勉勵(lì)來(lái)自國(guó)外投資勉勵(lì)教育和培訓(xùn)建立完善產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)機(jī)制和政治穩(wěn)定促進(jìn)自由貿(mào)易促進(jìn)研究與開(kāi)發(fā)40/76TheImportanceofSavingandInvestment

儲(chǔ)蓄與投資主要性O(shè)newaytoraisefutureproductivityistoinvestmorecurrentresourcesintheproductionofcapital.提升未來(lái)生產(chǎn)率一個(gè)方法就是把更多現(xiàn)期資源投資于資本生產(chǎn)。41/76Figure1GrowthandInvestment(a)

Growth

Rate

1960–1991(b)

Investment

1960–1991SouthKoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWestGermanyMexicoUnitedKingdomNigeriaUnitedStatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwandaSouthKoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWestGermanyMexicoUnitedKingdomNigeriaUnitedStatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwandaInvestment(percentofGDP)GrowthRate(percent)0123456701020304042/76(a)1960-1991增加率(b)1960-1991投資韓國(guó)新加坡日本以色列加拿大巴西西德墨西哥英國(guó)尼日利亞美國(guó)印度孟加拉國(guó)智利盧旺達(dá)增加率(百分比)01234567SouthKoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWestGermanyMexicoUnitedKingdomNigeriaUnitedStatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwanda投資(GDP％)010203040圖1.增加與投資43/76DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffectAsthestockofcapitalrises,theextraoutputproducedfromanadditionalunitofcapitalfalls;thispropertyiscalleddiminishingreturns.Becauseofdiminishingreturns,anincreaseinthesavingrateleadstohighergrowthonlyforawhile.44/76收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng)伴隨資本存量增加，從增加一個(gè)單位資本中生產(chǎn)額外產(chǎn)量降低。這種特征被稱為收益遞減。因?yàn)槭找孢f減，儲(chǔ)蓄率增加所引發(fā)更高增加只是暫時(shí)。45/76DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffect

收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng)Inthelongrun,thehighersavingrateleadstoahigherlevelofproductivityandincome,butnottohighergrowthintheseareas.在長(zhǎng)久中，高儲(chǔ)蓄率引發(fā)高水平生產(chǎn)率和收入，但在這些變量中并沒(méi)有高增加。46/76DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffect

收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng)Thecatch-upeffectreferstotheconditionthat,otherthingsbeingequal,itiseasierforacountrytogrowfastifitstartsoutrelativelypoor.追趕效應(yīng)是指在其它條件相同情況下，假如一國(guó)開(kāi)始時(shí)較窮，它要快速增加是輕易。47/76InvestmentfromAbroad

來(lái)自國(guó)外投資Governmentscanincreasecapitalaccumulationandlong-termeconomicgrowthbyencouraginginvestmentfromforeignsources.政府能夠經(jīng)過(guò)勉勵(lì)來(lái)自國(guó)外投資來(lái)增加資本積累和長(zhǎng)久經(jīng)濟(jì)增加。48/76InvestmentfromAbroadInvestmentfromabroadtakesseveralforms:ForeignDirectInvestmentCapitalinvestmentownedandoperatedbyaforeignentity.ForeignPortfolioInvestmentInvestmentsfinancedwithforeignmoneybutoperatedbydomesticresidents.49/76來(lái)自國(guó)外投資來(lái)自國(guó)外投資采取幾個(gè)形式：外國(guó)直接投資由外國(guó)實(shí)體擁有并經(jīng)營(yíng)資本投資。外國(guó)有價(jià)證券投資用外國(guó)貨幣籌資，但由國(guó)內(nèi)居民經(jīng)營(yíng)投資。50/76EducationForacountry’slong-rungrowth,educationisatleastasimportantasinvestmentinphysicalcapital.IntheUnitedStates,eachyearofschoolingraisesaperson’swageonaveragebyabout10percent.Thus,onewaythegovernmentcanenhancethestandardoflivingistoprovideschoolsandencouragethepopulationtotakeadvantageofthem.51/76教育教育對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家長(zhǎng)久經(jīng)濟(jì)成功最少與物質(zhì)資本投資一樣主要。在美國(guó)，每一年正規(guī)教育使人平均收入增加10％左右。所以，政府能夠提升生活水平一個(gè)方法是提供良好學(xué)校，并勉勵(lì)人們利用這些學(xué)校。52/76Education教育Aneducatedpersonmightgeneratenewideasabouthowbesttoproducegoodsandservices,whichinturn,mightentersociety’spoolofknowledgeandprovideanexternalbenefittoothers.一個(gè)受過(guò)教育人會(huì)產(chǎn)生一些相關(guān)怎樣最好地生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)新思想，這些新思想進(jìn)入社會(huì)知識(shí)寶庫(kù)，并給他人帶來(lái)外部效益。53/76Education教育Oneproblemfacingsomepoorcountriesisthebraindrain--theemigrationofmanyofthemosthighlyeducatedworkerstorichcountries.一些貧窮國(guó)家面臨一個(gè)問(wèn)題是人才外流——許多受過(guò)最高教育工人移民到富國(guó)。54/76PropertyRightsandPoliticalStabilityPropertyrightsrefertotheabilityofpeopletoexerciseauthorityovertheresourcestheyown.Aneconomy-widerespectforproperty rightsisanimportantprerequisiteforthe pricesystemtowork.Itisnecessaryforinvestorstofeelthat theirinvestmentsaresecure.55/76產(chǎn)權(quán)和政治穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)權(quán)是指人們對(duì)其擁有資源行使權(quán)力能力。價(jià)格制度發(fā)生作用一個(gè)主要前提是經(jīng)濟(jì)中廣泛尊重產(chǎn)權(quán)。讓投資者感到他們投資安全是必要。56/76FreeTradeTradeis,insomeways,atypeoftechnology.Acountrythateliminatestraderestrictionswillexperiencethesamekindofeconomicgrowththatwouldoccurafteramajortechnologicaladvance.57/76自由貿(mào)易在一些方面，貿(mào)易是一個(gè)技術(shù)。取消了貿(mào)易限制國(guó)家將有重大技術(shù)進(jìn)步以后出現(xiàn)同類經(jīng)濟(jì)增加。58/76FreeTradeSomecountriesengagein...

...inward-orientatedtradepolicies,avoidinginteractionwithothercountries. ...outward-orientatedtradepolicies,encouraginginteractionwithothercountries.59/76自由貿(mào)易一些國(guó)家實(shí)施...

...內(nèi)向型貿(mào)易政策,防止與世界其它國(guó)家相互交易。

...外向型貿(mào)易政策，勉勵(lì)與其它國(guó)家相互交易。60/76ResearchandDevelopmentTheadvanceoftechnologicalknowledgehasledtohigherstandardsofliving.Mosttechnologicaladvancecomesfromprivateresearchbyfirmsandindividualinventors.Governmentcanencouragethedevelopmentofnewtechnologiesthroughresearchgrants,taxbreaks,andthepatentsystem.61/76研究與開(kāi)發(fā)技術(shù)知識(shí)進(jìn)步帶來(lái)更高生活水平。大多數(shù)技術(shù)進(jìn)步來(lái)自企業(yè)和個(gè)人所進(jìn)行私人研究。政府經(jīng)過(guò)補(bǔ)助、減稅和專利制度來(lái)勉勵(lì)新技術(shù)開(kāi)發(fā)。62/76CASESTUDY:TheProductivitySlowdownandSpeedupFrom1959to1973productivitygrewatarateof3.2percentperyear.From1973to1995productivitygrewbyonly1.5percentperyear.Productivityacceleratedagainin1995,growingby2.6percentperyearonaverageduringthenextsixyears.63/76案例研究:生產(chǎn)率增加放慢與加緊從1959年到1973年，生產(chǎn)率每年增加3.2％。從1973到1995年，生產(chǎn)率每年增加只有1.5％。從1995年開(kāi)始，生產(chǎn)率增加又加緊了，在隨即6年里平均每年增加2.6％。64/76CASESTUDY:TheProductivitySlowdownandSpeedupThecausesofthechangesinproductivitygrowthareelusive.Theslowdowncannotbetracedtothefactorsofproductionthataremosteasilymeasured.Manyeconomistsattributetheslowdownandspeedupineconomicgrowthtochangesintechnologyandthecreationofnewideas.65/76案例研究:生產(chǎn)率增加放慢與加緊生產(chǎn)率增加改變?cè)蚴亲矫欢?。這種生產(chǎn)率放慢不能追溯到那些最輕易衡量生產(chǎn)要素。許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家把經(jīng)濟(jì)增加快慢歸因于技術(shù)變革和新思想創(chuàng)造。66/76Figure2TheGrowthinRealGDPPerPersonGrowthRate(percentperyear)1.01.52.02.53.03.54.01870–18901890–19101910–19301930