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q1Q24
ab
GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab7May2024
USEquityStrategy
EarningsBrief1Q24:May07
Quarterlyearningsestimatestendtodeclinegoingintoreportingseason,onlytobetoppedbypositivesurprises.1Qrevisionsdefiedthistrend,declininglessthantypicalandreboundingmorestrongly.2Qestimateshaverisensincetheendofthequarter.
83.3%oftheS&P500'smarketcaphasreported.1Qexpectationsareforrevenuestogrow3.9%andEPSby10.2%.Growthamonggroupsvariessignificantly,asshowninthetablebelow(ablendofconsensusestimatesandreportedresultswhereavailable):
Group
TECH+
Financials
Industrials&DiscexInternetRetail
Non-CyclicalexHealthCare
HealthCare
Energy&Materials
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
EPSGrowth(%)
38.212.2 6.1 5.9 -2.8-22.9
Earningsarebeatingestimatesby7.7%inaggregate,with74%ofcompaniestoppingprojections.EPSisonpacefor11.0%,assumingthehistoricalbeatrateof4.8%fortherestofthisseason.
FirmsbeatingonbothrevenuesandEPSareoutperformingthemarketby0.5%vs.ahistoricalaverageof1.7%,whileonesmissingonbothareunderperformingby-3.4%vs.-3.1%.
Overthenext5tradingdays,23companiesrepresenting2.4%ofS&P500’smarketcapwillreportresults,includingUber,Airbnb,ConstellationEnergy,andHomeDepot.
Figure1:Pathof1Q24Bottom-UpS&P500ConsensusEPS
EquityStrategy
Americas
JonathanGolub
Strategist
jonathan.golub@+1-212-7138673
PatrickPalfrey
Strategist
patrick.palfrey@+1-212-713-2000
WillJackson
AssociateStrategistwill.jackson@+1-212-713-2000
NicholasSamoyedny
AssociateStrategist
nicholas.samoyedny@+1-212-713-2000
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
*
3.0
-0.2
-0.8
HistoricalTrendΔ
-64-48-32-16016324864
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:Historicaltrendbasedonestimatesfrom1Q11-4Q19
ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage14.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
S&P500
PriceAction
Figure4:S&P500PriceAction
Current
EPSSurprises
%
RevenueSurprises
Hits/MissesBeats
-1.2
BeatsHits/Misses
0.5
-1.4
-3.4
0.2
-2.2
-0.2
-2.7
HistoricalAverage
EPSSurprises
%
RevenueSurprises
Hits/MissesBeats
-0.3
BeatsHits/Misses
1.7
-1.4
-3.1
1.1
-1.5
0.9
-2.4
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:Surprisedcalculatedbasedonrevenuebeat/missby+/-0.25%,earningsbeat/missby+/-1%.Price
performance-1to+1days
Figure5:S&P500PriceActionTable
PriceAction(%)
EPSBeatwithEPSMisswith
OverallRevBeatRevMissRevBeatRevMiss
-0.80.5-1.4-1.2-3.4
Cyclicals
-0.5
1.4
-0.5
-2.9
-4.1
Energy
-1.9
-1.2
-0.4
-4.1
-3.7
Materials
-0.3
0.9
1.8
-1.9
-4.5
Industrials
-0.7
1.3
-2.0
-2.2
-4.0
Discretionaryex-InternetRetail
0.5
3.2
0.4
-0.8
-3.9
TECH+
-2.3
-0.5
-5.4
NA
-7.0
Technology
-1.8
0.4
-5.4
NA
-5.5
InternetRetail
-6.2
-4.2
NA
NA
NA
Media&Entertainment
-1.4
2.2
2.1
NA
-9.5
Non-Cyclicals
-0.7
0.2
-0.9
-0.9
-2.8
Staples
-1.3
0.9
-3.1
NA
-6.3
HealthCare
-0.9
-0.3
-0.9
NA
-4.3
Utilities
-0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.6
-0.3
REITs
-0.2
1.2
0.8
-1.7
-2.0
Telcos
-1.3
NA
-1.3
NA
NA
Financials
-0.5
0.3
-1.6
0.3
-1.7
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:Surprisedcalculatedbasedonrevenuebeat/missby+/-0.25%,earningsbeat/missby+/-1%.Price
performance-1to+1days
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab3
Earnings–Growth
Figure6:S&P500EPSGrowth
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab4
%
Deceleration
Recovery
3Q22
1Q24E
4Q23
3Q23
2Q23
-3.4
4Q22
-1.5
-0.9
1Q23
2Q22
2Q24E
3Q24E
Market
rallybegins
10.5
10.3
10.210.5
8.7
7.4
5.8
3.3
1Q25E
1Q22
32.3
TECH+
rallybegins
-18.9
4Q22
-8.5
1Q23
2Q23
17.7
15.0
14.5
13.2
7.0
6.7
6.46.1
2.2
1.3
-0.7-0.2
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
3Q234Q231Q24E2Q24E3Q24E4Q24E1Q25E
Earnings
Recession
15.3
14.5
4Q24E
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:Blendofactualswhereavailableandestimates
Figure7:TECH+EPSGrowth
42.5
EarningsRecession
Deceleration
38.2Recovery
%
21.2
16.4
13.0
7.1
17.3
17.1
-7.7
-6.6
1Q22
3Q22
2Q22
3Q234Q231Q24E2Q24E3Q24E4Q24E1Q25E
Source:Standard&Poor's,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Figure8:S&P500ex-TECH+EPSGrowth
EarningsRecession
Recovery
%
Deceleration
-8.3
4Q221Q232Q23
Source:Standard&Poor's,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Earnings–Growth
Figure9:Big6TECH+EPSGrowth
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab5
%
EarningsRecession
Recovery
Deceleration
30.5
16.016.114.7
0.5
-9.6
-17.8
1Q222Q223Q22
3Q234Q231Q24E2Q24E3Q24E4Q24E1Q25E
68.2
59.7
54.1
TECH+
rallybegins
42.7
2Q23
11.3
-26.9
4Q22
1Q23
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:Blendofactualswhereavailableandestimates
Earnings–Growth
Figure10:1Q24ES&P500EPSGrowth
%
54.1
38.2
12.2
10.2
6.15.9
1.3
-2.8
-22.9
S&P500S&P500
Big
6TECH+
TECH+
Financials
Industrials&
NonCycex-
HealthCare
Energy&
ex-TECH+
Discretionary
HC
Materials
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:InternetRetailisincludedinTECH+,notDiscretionary
Figure11:2024ES&P500EPSGrowth
%
29.5
22.8
10.8
9.2
8.4
6.1
6.6
5.8
-2.9
Big6TECH+TECH+
Non-Cycex-HealthCare
Industrials&Discretionary
Financials
HealthCare
S&P500
S&P500ex-TECH+
Energy
&Materials
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:InternetRetailisincludedinTECH+,notDiscretionary
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab6
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab7
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
EPSRevisions
Figure12:Pathof1Q24Bottom-UpS&P500ConsensusEPS
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
*
3.0
-0.2
-0.8
q1Q24
HistoricalTrendΔ
-64-48-32-16016324864
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:Historicaltrendbasedonestimatesfrom1Q11-4Q19
Figure13:Pathof2024Bottom-UpS&P500ConsensusEPS
*
v2024
0.1
vHistoricalTrend
-5.4
-6.3
JunSepDecMarJunSepDecMar
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
1Q24Calendar
Figure14:NumberofCompaniesReportingbyWeek
#
174
157
41
10
3
57
18
7
10
Weekof:
Apr
1
Apr
15
Apr
8
Apr
22
Apr
29
May
6
May
13
May
20
May
27
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Bloomberg,FactSet,UBS
Figure15:KeyCompaniesReportingOvertheNext2Weeks
11
11
0
0
1
1
5
0
3
1
May8
May9
May10
May13
May14
May15
May16May17
May20
May21
UBER
CEG
HD
CSCO
WMT
PANW
LOW
ABNB
MTD
AMAT
KEYS
EMR
WBD
DE
NDSN
BR
AKAM
ROST
CPAY
EPAM
TTWO
STE
VTRS
ATO
CRL
CE
GEN
NWSA
EVRG
NI
PODD
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Bloomberg,FactSet,UBS
Note:Maxof10companiesperdaylisted
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab8
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab9
1.0
0.1
HistoricalSurpriseTrends
Figure16:S&P500RevenueSurprise
%
5.0
4.2
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.3
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.2
0.9
Avg:1.0%
1.01.0
2.62.6
2.6
2.6
1.6
1.7
1Q193Q191Q203Q201Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q231Q24
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:Beat/Miss+/-0.25%
Figure17:S&P500EarningsSurprise
%
23.2
21.4
19.4
15.515.5
6.7
5.5
4.6
7.6
6.5
7.4
6.9
7.7
1Q24
6.4
Avg:4.8%
5.2
4.64.3
2.9
9.7
2.7
1.3
3Q221Q233Q23
1Q193Q191Q203Q201Q213Q21
1Q22
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:Beat/Miss+/-1%
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab10
HistoricalGrowthTrends
Figure18:S&P500RevenueGrowth
%
26.1
16.0
16.8
13.9
13.3
11.1
10.9
5.9
4.8
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.9
2.0
2.52.4
1.6
1.9
0.5
0.9
-1.9
-8.8
4Q182Q194Q192Q204Q202Q214Q212Q224Q222Q234Q23
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:YoYgrowthofcurrentconstituents;blendofunreportedandreportednumberswhereavailable
Figure19:S&P500EPSGrowth
%
86.9
17.1
2.83.81.12.94.1
47.1
36.7
30.9
10.3
7.4
10.510.2
5.8
3.3
-3.4
-1.5-0.9
-6.4
-13.6
-30.7
4Q182Q194Q192Q204Q202Q214Q212Q224Q222Q234Q23
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:YoYgrowthofcurrentconstituents;blendofunreportedandreportednumberswhereavailable
HistoricalGrowthTrends
Figure20:S&P500RevenueDashboard
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab11
S&P500
S&P500
RevenueGrowth(%)RevenueSurprise
RptdTotalReptdUnreptdBlendedPct(%)%Beat%Miss
4135003.65.23.91.05734
Cyclicals
150
176
-0.1
-1.6
-0.3
0.0
52
41
Energy
22
23
-2.4
-7.7
-2.5
2.1
73
27
Materials
27
28
-5.3
-6.5
-5.3
-0.2
41
48
Industrials
67
78
1.1
-2.0
0.8
-1.7
51
42
Discretionaryex-InternetRetail
34
47
4.0
-0.9
2.5
0.1
50
41
TECH+
55
77
8.6
20.9
10.4
1.0
65
22
Technology
47
65
3.3
22.2
7.6
0.8
62
26
InternetRetail
5
6
12.3
13.4
12.3
0.7
80
NA
Media&Internet
3
6
18.5
NA
17.7
1.9
100
NA
Non-Cyclicals
141
176
3.3
4.1
3.4
0.2
59
34
Staples
28
38
1.3
2.1
1.6
0.0
61
32
HealthCare
51
64
5.6
11.1
6.3
0.9
73
20
Utilities
23
30
-6.6
0.3
-4.9
-4.8
22
74
REITs
30
31
7.4
7.1
7.4
0.7
70
23
Telcos
3
3
-0.1
NA
-0.1
-1.2
NA
100
Financials
67
71
7.0
6.5
7.0
5.0
58
30
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:YoYgrowthofcurrentconstituents;blendofunreportedandreportednumberswhereavailable;Beat/Miss+/-0.25%.
Figure21:S&P500EarningsDashboard
EarningsGrowth(%)EarningsSurprise
RptdTotalReptdUnreptdBlendedPct(%)%Beat%Miss
4135007.516.08.67.77416
Cyclicals
150
176
-10.5
-7.0
-10.0
6.2
73
17
Energy
22
23
-26.6
-23.2
-26.4
1.8
64
23
Materials
27
28
-21.8
-2.3
-21.2
6.0
67
22
Industrials
67
78
6.5
0.2
5.6
8.6
81
12
Discretionaryex-InternetRetail
34
47
4.0
-7.8
0.1
9.5
71
21
TECH+
55
77
35.6
40.9
36.8
10.0
87
11
Technology
47
65
15.0
42.9
22.9
5.1
87
11
InternetRetail
5
6
170
40.3
167.6
18.9
80
20
Media&Internet
3
6
81
304.6
75.6
16.3
100
NA
Non-Cyclicals
141
176
1.1
2.2
1.2
6.3
74
13
Staples
28
38
7.0
-6.0
4.3
8.3
86
7
HealthCare
51
64
-4.0
-9.7
-4.5
7.3
86
6
Utilities
23
30
11.1
19.0
12.7
6.2
57
30
REITs
30
31
7.1
1.9
6.8
1.1
57
17
Telcos
3
3
-4.3
NA
-4.3
3.3
100
NA
Financials
67
71
10.2
12.3
10.2
8.3
63
22
Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS
Note:YoYgrowthofcurrentconstituents;blendofunreportedandreportednumberswhereavailable;Beat/Miss+/-1.0%.
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab12
Pleasecontactustobeaddedtoourdailydistributionlist.
TheauthorswouldliketothankMohitJainandZenyaKoprowski,ourresearch
supportserviceprofessionals,forassistinginthepreparationofthisresearchreport.
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab13
ValuationMethodandRiskStatement
Equitymarketreturnsareinfluencedbycorporateearnings,interestrates,riskpremia,aswell
asothervariablesinfluencedbythebusinesscycle.Theoutlookforanyandallofthese
variablesissubjecttochange.
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab14
RequiredDisclosures
ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC,anaffiliateofUBSAG.UBSAG,itssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliates,includingCreditSuisseAGanditssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliatesarereferredtohereinas"UBS".
ForinformationonthewaysinwhichUBSmanagesconflictsandmaintainsindependenceofitsUBSGlobalResearchproduct;historicalperformanceinformation;certainadditionaldisclosuresconcerningUBSGlobalResearchrecommendations;andtermsandconditionsforcertainthirdpartydatausedinresearchreport,pleasevisit
/disclosures
.Unlessotherwiseindicated,informationanddatainthisreportarebasedoncompanydisclosuresincludingbutnotlimitedtoannual,interim,quarterlyreportsandothercompanyannouncements.Thefigurescontainedinperformancechartsrefertothepast;pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffutureresults.Additionalinformationwillbemadeavailableuponrequest.UBSSecuritiesCo.LimitedislicensedtoconductsecuritiesinvestmentconsultancybusinessesbytheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission.UBSactsormayactasprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatmaybethesubjectofthisreport.Thisrecommendationwasfinalizedon:07May202412:21PMGMT.UBShasdesignatedcertainUBSGlobalResearchdepartmentmembersasDerivativesResearchAnalystswherethosedepartmentmemberspublishresearchprincipallyontheanalysisofthepriceormarketforaderivative,andprovideinformationreasonablysufficientuponwhichtobaseadecisiontoenterintoaderivativestransaction.WhereDerivativesResearchAnalystsco-authorresearchreportswithEquityResearchAnalystsorEconomists,theDerivativesResearchAnalystisresponsibleforthederivativesinvestmentviews,forecasts,and/orrecommendations.QuantitativeResearchReview:UBSGlobalResearchpublishesaquantitativeassessmentofitsanalysts'responsestocertainquestionsaboutthelikelihoodofanoccurrenceofanumberofshorttermfactorsinaproductknownasthe'QuantitativeResearchReview'.Viewscontainedinthisassessmentonaparticularstockreflectonlytheviewsonthoseshorttermfactorswhichareadifferenttimeframetothe12-monthtimeframereflectedinanyequityratingsetoutinthisnote.Forthelatestresponses,pleaseseetheQuantitativeResearchReviewAddendumatthebackofthisreport,whereapplicable.Forpreviousresponsespleasemakereferenceto(i)previousUBSGlobalResearchreports;and(ii)wherenoapplicableresearchreportwaspublishedthatmonth,theQuantitativeResearchReviewwhichcanbefoundat
/
quantitative,orcontactyourUBSsalesrepresentativeforaccesstothereportortheQuantitativeResearchTeamonqa@.AconsolidatedreportwhichcontainsallresponsesisalsoavailableandagainyoushouldcontactyourUBSsalesrepresentativefordetailsandpricingortheQuantitativeResearchteamontheemailabove.
AnalystCertification:
Eachresearchanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,inwholeorinpart,certifiesthatwithrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthosesecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoUBS,and(2)nopartofhisorhercompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystintheresearchreport.
UBSGlobalResearch:GlobalEquityRatingDefinitions
12-MonthRating
Definition
Coverage1
IBServices2
Buy
FSRis>6%abovetheMRA.
51%
36%
Neutral
FSRisbetween-6%and6%oftheMRA.
40%
38%
Sell
FSRis>6%belowtheMRA.
8%
33%
Short-TermRating
Definition
Coverage3
IBServices4
Buy
Stockpriceexpectedtorisewithinthreemonthsfromthetimetheratingwasassignedbecauseofaspecificcatalystorevent.
<1%
<1%
Sell
Stockpriceexpectedtofallwithinthreemonthsfromthetimetheratingwasassignedbecauseofaspecificcatalystorevent.
<1%
<1%
Source:UBS.Ratingallocationsareasof31March2024.
1:Percentageofcompaniesundercoveragegloballywithinthe12-monthratingcategory.
2:Percentageofcompanieswithinthe12-monthratingcategoryforwhichinvestmentbanking(IB)serviceswereprovidedwithinthepast12months.
3:PercentageofcompaniesundercoveragegloballywithintheShort-Termratingcategory.
4:PercentageofcompanieswithintheShort-Termratingcategoryforwhichinvestmentbanking(IB)serviceswereprovidedwithinthepast12months.
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab15
KEYDEFINITIONS:ForecastStockReturn(FSR)isdefinedasexpectedpercentagepriceappreciationplusgrossdividendyieldoverthenext12months.Insomecases,thisyieldmaybebasedonaccrueddividends.MarketReturnAssumption(MRA)isdefinedastheone-yearlocalmarketinterestrateplus5%(aproxyfor,andnotaforecastof,theequityriskpremium).UnderReview(UR)StocksmaybeflaggedasURbytheanalyst,indicatingthatthestock'spricetargetand/orratingaresubjecttopossiblechangeinthenearterm,usuallyinresponsetoaneventthatmayaffecttheinvestmentcaseorvaluation.Short-TermRatingsreflecttheexpectednear-term(uptothreemonths)performanceofthestockanddonotreflectanychangeinthefundamentalvieworinvestmentcase.EquityPriceTargetshaveaninvestmenthorizonof12months.
EXCEPTIONSANDSPECIALCASES:UKandEuropeanInvestmentFundratingsanddefinitionsare:Buy:Positiveonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount;Neutral:Neutralonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount;Sell:Negativeonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount.CoreBandingExceptions(CBE):Exceptionstothestandard+/-6%bandsmaybegrantedbytheInvestmentReviewCommittee(IRC).FactorsconsideredbytheIRCincludethestock'svolatilityandthecreditspreadoftherespectivecompany'sdebt.Asaresult,stocksdeemedtobeveryhighorlowriskmaybesubjecttohigherorlowerbandsastheyrelatetotherating.Whensuchexceptionsapply,theywillbeidentifiedintheCompanyDisclosurestableintherelevantresearchpiece.
Researchanalystscontributingtothisreportwhoareemployedbyanynon-USaffiliateofUBSSecuritiesLLCarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.SuchanalystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofUBSSecuritiesLLCandthereforearenotsubjecttotheFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.Thenameofeachaffiliateandanalystemployedbythataffiliatecontributingtothisreport,ifany,follows.
UBSSecuritiesLLC:JonathanGolub,NicholasSamoyedny,PatrickPalfrey,WillJackson.
Unlessotherwiseindicated,pleaserefertotheValuationandRisksectionswithinthebodyofthisreport.Foracompletesetofdisclosurestatementsassociatedwiththecompaniesdiscussedinthisreport,includinginformationonvaluationandrisk,pleasecontactUBSSecuritiesLLC,1285AvenueofAmericas,NewYork,NY10019,USA,Attention:InvestmentResearch.
USEquityStrategy7May2024ab16
UBSGlobalResearchDisclaimer
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