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BitcoinCompass
Q32025
Ronald-PeterSt?ferle
MarkJ.Valek
1
TableofContent:
1.
NewsandSocialMedia
2.Bitcoin
3.BitcoinSpotETF
4.BitcoinOn-Chain
5
.Bitcoin
vs.
Altcoins
6.BitcoinTreasuryCompanies
7
.BitcoinComparisons
2
1.NewsandSocialMedia
“CONGRATULATIONSBITCOINERS!!!
$100,000!!!YOU'REWELCOME!!!”
DonaldTrump
3
News
?Reuters,05/28/2025(EN):VancesaysUSshouldusebitcoinasanadvantageinrivalrywithChina(
link
)
?Reuters,05/28/2025(EN):GameStopbuysbitcoinworth$513millionincryptopush(
link
)
?CoinShares,06/05/2025(EN):Insidethe13FFilingsofBitcoinETFsQ12025,theinstitutionalinvestorsrebalance(
link
)
?Bloomberg,06/09/2025(EN):BitcoinBuyerMetaplanetJumpson$5.4BillionFundraisingPlan(
link
)
?Bloomberg,06/10/2025(EN):Circle’sBlockbusterIPOUshersintheBattlefortheBuck(
link
)
?Bloomberg,06/11/2025(EN):PeterThiel-backedcryptogroupBullishfilesforWallStreetIPO(
link
)
?Cointelegraph,06/17/2025(EN):Thailandapprovesfive-yearcryptotaxexemption(
link
)
?Bloomberg,06/30/2025(EN):ChanosWarnsofAIPullback,‘Absurd’BitcoinTreasuryCompanies(
link
)
?Bloomberg,06/30/2025(EN):Trump-FueledBitcoinManiaLeavesMostofCryptointheDust(
link
)
?Cointelegraph,06/30/2025(EN):Kazakhstanplanstoestablishnationalcryptoreserve(
link
)
incrementum
4
incrementum
5
SocialMedia
BTCPrague,06/26/2025(EN)
JackMallersDeliversTheBESTBitcoinExplanationofALLTIME!
Cointelegraph,06/30/2025(EN)
WhatComesAfter$100,000?
LynAldenAnalyzesTheMacroPicture
BloombergTelevision,06/10/2025(EN)
StrategyBuysAnother$110MillionofBitcoin|BloombergCrypto6/10/2025
WasBitcoinbringt.,06/16/2025(DE)Dollarrunter,Bitcoin&Goldrauf-
RonaldSt?ferle
2.Bitcoin
“AStrategicBitcoinReservecouldstrengthenournationalfinancialsecurityandembracethefutureofcurrency.”
SenatorCynthiaLummis
6
incrementum
7
BitcoinPerformanceinMajorCurrencies,2011–2025YTD
Year
USD
EUR
GBP
CAD
CNY
JPY
CHF
INR
XAU
Average
2011
1,473.3%
1,526.8%
1,479.7%
1,509.0%
1,402.6%
1,391.7%
1,480.2%
1,765.8%
1,328.1%
1,484.2%
2012
186.2%
180.7%
173.9%
178.6%
183.3%
222.7%
179.5%
196.9%
167.3%
185.5%
2013
5,481.1%
5,257.9%
5,373.3%
5,874.4%
5,323.1%
6,675.3%
5,342.7%
6,172.3%
7,655.3%
5,906.2%
2014
-57.4%
-51.6%
-54.7%
-53.4%
-56.4%
-51.6%
-52.6%
-56.6%
-56.7%
-54.6%
2015
33.8%
49.1%
41.4%
59.4%
40.0%
34.5%
34.9%
40.6%
49.3%
42.6%
2016
124.9%
132.3%
168.7%
118.3%
140.6%
118.5%
128.5%
130.9%
107.3%
130.0%
2017
1,385.6%
1,202.1%
1,256.3%
1,291.2%
1,292.2%
1,332.2%
1,322.1%
1,295.6%
1,213.4%
1,287.9%
2018
-73.5%
-72.2%
-71.9%
-71.2%
-71.9%
-74.2%
-73.3%
-71.1%
-73.0%
-72.5%
2019
87.8%
92.1%
80.6%
78.9%
90.2%
86.2%
85.2%
92.7%
58.8%
83.6%
2020
305.0%
271.7%
292.9%
297.0%
279.6%
285.0%
270.4%
314.6%
223.9%
282.2%
2021
59.8%
71.6%
61.5%
58.6%
55.5%
78.1%
64.6%
62.9%
65.7%
64.3%
2022
-64.3%
-62.1%
-60.1%
-61.7%
-61.2%
-59.3%
-63.8%
-60.3%
-64.2%
-61.9%
2023
157.0%
149.3%
144.2%
151.2%
164.5%
176.5%
133.9%
158.5%
127.3%
151.4%
2024
120.4%
135.0%
124.2%
139.3%
126.7%
145.6%
137.6%
126.7%
73.3%
125.4%
2025YTD
14.9%
0.9%
4.7%
8.7%
12.7%
5.2%
0.4%
15.1%
-8.8%
6.0%
CAGR
134.6%
136.6%
136.6%
139.5%
135.9%
143.7%
132.0%
145.0%
121.7%
136.2%
Source:Glassnode,LSEG(asof06/30/2025),IncrementumAG
incrementum
8
AnnualizedPerformanceofBitcoin,inUSD,ifBoughtontheLastDayof
theMonthandHelduntil06/2025(HoldingPeriod≥1Year)
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2011
133.74%
126.79%
129.57%
109.51%
93.93%
88.19%
91.12%
98.45%
106.51%
114.16%
116.59%
110.29%
2012
108.92%
111.78%
112.89%
113.35%
113.52%
110.80%
105.92%
106.19%
103.66%
106.26%
105.36%
105.16%
2013
99.42%
92.52%
77.85%
72.76%
74.49%
79.43%
78.76%
75.84%
76.80%
71.13%
48.20%
53.94%
2014
53.13%
59.31%
62.50%
63.39%
59.16%
59.35%
61.20%
64.88%
68.80%
71.64%
70.57%
74.03%
2015
81.46%
79.67%
81.15%
82.60%
84.10%
82.51%
81.96%
86.88%
87.35%
83.00%
80.41%
78.86%
2016
82.79%
80.48%
82.41%
81.86%
79.43%
75.94%
78.22%
80.97%
80.71%
78.87%
78.58%
74.10%
2017
75.13%
71.68%
74.87%
70.96%
60.94%
59.80%
58.19%
49.04%
52.08%
44.61%
37.35%
30.81%
2018
37.82%
37.29%
46.06%
40.80%
45.55%
49.81%
46.46%
49.05%
51.15%
53.06%
65.33%
67.19%
2019
71.20%
69.55%
68.25%
63.26%
51.79%
45.41%
49.35%
51.64%
56.28%
54.37%
60.96%
63.69%
2020
56.89%
60.49%
70.81%
62.27%
61.18%
63.74%
58.04%
58.32%
62.54%
55.19%
45.37%
33.84%
2021
31.30%
23.46%
15.21%
16.58%
30.16%
32.82%
27.52%
24.12%
27.37%
16.93%
19.33%
27.24%
2022
35.17%
32.96%
30.09%
38.56%
48.52%
79.10%
68.06%
80.47%
86.37%
86.51%
103.84%
111.52%
2023
89.54%
93.21%
80.80%
82.16%
93.80%
88.19%
97.48%
116.93%
120.02%
97.39%
93.81%
85.77%
202492.81%52.25%39.73%65.32%53.55%73.91%
Source:Glassnode,LSEG,IncrementumAG*Purchasedate=lastdayofthemonth
incrementum
9
PurchaseattheEndof
Q3/2019
Q4/2019
Q1/2020
Q2/2020
Q3/2020
Q4/2020
Q1/2021
Q2/2021
Q3/2021
Q4/2021
Q1/2022
Q2/2022
Q3/2022
Q4/2022
Q1/2023
Q2/2023
Q3/2023
Q4/2023
Q1/2024
Q2/2024
Q3/2024
Q4/2024
Q1/2025
Q2/2025
BitcoinPerformanceTriangle(USD),in%,Q2/2019–Q2/2025
Q2/2019
Q3/2019
Q4/2019
Q1/2020
-27.4
-37.1-43.1
-13.3-21.6
-9.6
-19.7
10.7
27.8
41.2
-5.9154.6417.9203.729.7250.9613.7318.6
49.6305.0723.6383.165.5347.7810.6434.1
281.6
425.9
506.9
571.0
306.8
460.6
547.0
615.3
302.1
454.1
539.4
607.0
64.6
126.8
161.7
189.4
70.645.3149.4167.0135.2100.2243.7267.9171.4131.1296.6324.6
200.0155.5338.5369.4
137.8
227.8
278.3
318.2
273.4
414.6
493.8
556.5
522.3
757.6
889.7
994.2
443.6
649.2
764.6
855.9
460.3723.0624.2845.4
672.21,034.2898.01,202.9
791.11,208.91,051.71,403.6
885.21,347.11,173.31,562.3
Q2/2020
Q3/2020
17.1217.0544.7
170.6450.3
278.1
222.8
375.0406.4400.5104.9
305.5332.3327.374.9
112.4
81.3
80.9
54.4
210.5
165.1
232.3
183.7
196.1
152.8
364.8
296.8
674.7
561.4
576.8
477.7
597.5
495.5
924.5
774.6
801.5
669.6
1,076.9
904.7
Q4/2020
103.4
19.3
49.959.857.9-35.4
-33.0-42.9-2.14.8
-6.646.6144.4113.5
120.0223.2184.4271.3
Q1/2021
-41.3
-26.3-21.4-22.4-68.2
-67.1-71.9-51.8-48.4
-54.1-27.920.25.0
8.258.939.882.6
Q2/2021
Q3/2021
25.6
33.9
6.6
32.4
5.4
-45.8
-56.9
-43.8-52.2-17.9-12.1
-55.3-61.9-34.6-30.0
-21.7
-37.7
22.9
-2.1
104.9
63.1
79.0
42.5
84.5171.0138.4211.2
46.8115.789.8147.8
Q4/2021
-1.2
-59.5
-58.1-64.3-38.7-34.4
-41.5-8.253.033.6
37.7102.378.0132.4
Q1/2022
-59.1
-57.6-63.9-38.0-33.6
-40.8-7.154.835.2
39.4104.780.1135.1
Q2/2022
Q3/2022
3.7
-11.7
-14.8
51.5
46.2
62.2
56.5
44.5126.9278.1230.3
39.4118.8264.7218.6
240.5
228.4
400.1
382.3
340.0
324.4
474.5
454.1
Q4/2022
71.783.7
63.7157.0328.3274.2
285.6466.4398.4550.7
Q1/2023
7.0
-4.649.7149.5118.0
124.7230.0190.4279.1
Q2/2023
Q3/2023
Q4/2023
Q1/2024
-10.9
39.9
57.0
133.1
161.6
66.7
103.6
128.6
45.6
-12.6
109.9208.3171.3254.1135.6246.0204.5297.5
50.1120.493.9153.2-10.032.216.451.9
Q2/2024
Q3/2024
Q4/2024
Q1/2025
3.1
51.4
46.9
33.2
29.2
-12.0
73.9
68.7
14.9
30.5
SoldattheEndof
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
10
Bitcoin(MonthlyCandlestickChart),inUSD,01/2015–06/2025
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
11
Bitcoin(WeeklyCandlestickChart),inUSD,07/2023–06/2025
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
07/202310/202301/202404/202407/202410/202401/202504/2025
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
12
CryptoFear&GreedIndex,07/2023–06/2025
100
90
80
70
CurrentValue:52
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
07/202309/202311/202301/202403/202405/202407/202409/202411/202401/202503/202505/2025
CryptoFear&GreedIndex
Source:,IncrementumAG
incrementum
13
BitcoinDrawdownsinUSDfromAll-TimeHigh,01/2011–06/2025
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-76.9%
-80%
-83.1%
-85.1%
ATH
-90%
-93.1%
-100%
201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
BitcoinDrawdownsHalvings
Source:,LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
14
BitcoininVariousDevelopedMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh,
06/30/2025
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
-90%
-100%
-3.10%
-4.84%
-5.12%
-5.62%
-6.67%
-5.23%
-9.34%
-10.23%
-10.85%
-11.77%
CHFEURNOKGBPJPYAUDSGDKRWCADUSD
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
15
BitcoininVariousEmergingMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh,
06/30/2025
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
-80%
-90%
-100%
0.00%
-0.93%
-0.85%
-3.42%
-4.56%
-3.64%
-6.33%
-8.38%
-10.36%
-24.39%
RUBBRLMXNCLPZARCNYINRARSTRYVES
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
16
RollingBitcoinVolatility(30days),07/2021–06/2025
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
07/202101/202207/202201/202307/202301/202407/202401/2025
BitcoinVolatility
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
17
Bitcoin(log),inUSD,01/2011–06/2025
Profitablevs.UnprofitableEntryPoints
1,000,000.0
100,000.0
10,000.0
1,000.0
100.0
ProfitableDays180D1Y2Y4YSince2011
10.0
Profitable92.8%96.4%98.2%99.1%99.8%
Unprofitable7.2%3.6%1.8%0.9%0.2%
1.0
0.1
201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
ProfitabelUnprofitabel
Source:,LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
18
BitcoinPostUSPresidentialElectionBehaviour(log),inUSD,
01/2011–06/2025
1,000,000.0
100,000.0
10,000.0
1,000.0
100.0
10.0
1.0
0.1
201120132015201720192021202320252027
USPresidentialElectionBitcoin
Source:,LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
19
BitcoinHalvingEpochs(log),inUSD,07/2010–06/2025
66%
658%
1,223%
Open:USD64,978
5,146%
Open:USD0.05
Open:USD8,574
High:USD111,966
Low:USD49,445
Close:USD107,621
High:USD32
Low:USD0.01
Close:USD12
Open:USD648
High:USD73,794
Low:USD8,535
Close:USD64,990
High:USD19,666
Low:USD465
Close:USD8,572
Open:USD12
High:USD1,242
Low:USD12Close:USD648
07/17/2010-11/28/2012
11/29/2012-07/09/2016
07/10/2016-05/11/2020
05/12/2020-04/20/2024
04/21/2024-06/30/2025
1,000,000.00
100,000.00
10,000.00
1,000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00
0.10
0.01
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
20
BitcoinPriceTrajectoryAfterPastHalvings(Indexedto2024Halving
PriceofUSD64,773onApril20th,log),11/2012–06/2025
6,400,000
3,200,000
1,600,000
800,000
400,000
200,000
100,000
50,000
04/2024
10/2024
04/2025
10/2025
04/2026
10/2026
04/202710/2027
2012
2016
2020
2024
Average
Source:,LSEG,IncrementumAG
1,000,000.0
100,000.0
10,000.0
1,000.0100.0 10.01.0
0.1
20112015
20192023
2012
2016
2020
2024
InfoBox:
?ThisgraphillustratestheevolutionoftheBitcoinprice,whichis
exponentialduetotheshortageofsupplythatoccurseveryfouryearsafterahalving.
?ThepriceofBitcoinhasnotyet
recordedanegativeperformanceintherolling4-yearcomparison,whichhasledtoanever-increasingspiral.
2014
2018
2022
2026
Halving#4:04/20/2024
Halving#3:05/11/2020
Halving#2:07/09/2016
Halving#1:11/28/2012
20132017
20212025
Bitcoin,inUSD,01/2011–06/2025
Halving#1:
Start:11/28/2012,12.35
High:12/04/2013,1,151.17
Low:11/28/2012,12.35
Close:07/08/2016,662.97
Halving#2:
Start:07/09/2016,652.95
High:12/18/2017,18,690.00
Low:08/02/2016,540.00
Close:05/10/2020,8,668.45
Halving#3:
Start:05/11/2020,8,633.99
High:11/09/2021,73,157.00
Low:05/11/2020,8,633.99
Close:04/19/2024,64,045.70
Halving#4:
Start:04/20/2024,64,773.12
High:05/22/2025,111,966.62
Low:08/05/2024,49,445.08
Close:06/30/2025,107,620.53
2011–20142015–20182019–20222023–2026
Source:@therationalroot,,LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
21
incrementum
22
HalvingEffects
Halving
ReductionofNewSupplyperBlock
TotalReductionover
480Days(mn)
OutstandingBitcoins
(mn)
ReductioninNew
SupplyasPercentage
ofOutstanding
ReductioninNew
Supplyas%of
PreviousHalving
2012
25BTC
1.7
10.5
16.5%
2016
12.5BTC
0.9
15.8
5.5%
33.0%
2020
6.25BTC
0.4
18.4
2.4%
43.0%
2024
3.125BTC
0.2
19.7
1.1%
47.0%
Source:Glassnode,IncrementumAG
incrementum
23
Bitcoin(log,lhs),inUSD,andM2(US,EU,JP,CN,GB,CH)(3month
lead,rhs),inUSDtrn,01/2015–08/2025
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
201520172019202120232025
BitcoinM2(US,EU,JP,CN,GB,CH)
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
24
GoogleTrends:Bitcoin,01/2012–06/2025
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
GoogleTrends:Bitcoin
Source:Google,IncrementumAG
incrementum
25
DistributionofBitcoinHoldings,asa%ofTotalSupply,06/30/2025
5.3%
2.5%1.2%
6.2%
6.6%
8.6%
64.2%
5.4%
OtherLostCoins*Funds/ETFsCompaniesSatoshiLefttobeminedGovernmentsDeFi/SmartContracts
Source:,Chainalysis,RiverFinancial,IncrementumAG
incrementum
26
BitcoinHoldingsofGovernments,inBitcoin,06/30/2025
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
207,189
194,000
61,245
46,351
6,224
13,56211,924
24090
USAChinaUKUkraineNorthKoreaBhutanElSalvadorVenezuelaFinland
Official(Strategic)ReserveUnofficialReserve
Source:Bitbo,,IncrementumAG
3.SpotBitcoinETFs
“Whensomeonetriestobuyalltheworld’ssupplyofa
scarceasset,themoretheybuythehigherthepricegoes.”
SatoshiNakamoto
27
incrementum
28
SpotBitcoinETFOverview,06/30/2025
Issuer
Ticker
Marketshare
Holdings(?)
Holdings(USDbn)
Fee
BlackRock
IBIT
55.2%
678,162
72.5
0.25%
Fidelity
FBTC
15.9%
195,058
20.8
0.25%
Grayscale
GBTC
15.0%
184,716
19.7
1.50%
21Shares
ARKB
4.1%
49,968
5.3
0.21%
GrayscaleMini
BTC
3.6%
43,875
4.7
0.15%
Bitwise
BITB
3.4%
41,471
4.4
0.20%
VanEck
HODL
1.3%
15,661
1.7
0.25%
Invesco
BTCO
0.5%
6,107
0.7
0.25%
Valkyrie
BRRR
0.5%
5,779
0.6
0.25%
FranklinTempleton
EZBC
0.4%
5,155
0.6
0.19%
WisdomTree
BTCW
0.1%
1,547
0.2
0.30%
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
29
WeeklySpotBitcoinETFFlows,inBitcoin,01/2024–06/2025
125,000
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
-25,000
-50,000
-75,000
-100,000
-125,000
01/202403/202405/202407/202409/202411/202401/202503/202505/2025
GBTCIBITFBTCARKBBITBBTCBTCOHODLBRRREZBCBTCW
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
30
SpotBitcoinETFHoldings,inBitcoin,01/2024–06/2025
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
01/202403/202405/202407/202409/202411/202401/202503/202505/2025
GBTCIBITFBTCARKBBITBBTCBTCOHODLBRRREZBCBTCW
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
31
SpotBitcoinETFHoldings,asa%ofBitcoinSupply,01/2024–06/2025
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
01/2024
03/2024
05/202407/2024
09/2024
11/2024
01/202503/202505/2025
AvailableBitcoinSupply
TotalBitcoinSupply
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
incrementum
32
CumulativeBitcoinSpotETFFlows(lhs),inUSDbn,andBitcoinPrice
(rhs),inUSD,01/2024–06/2025
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
01/2024
03/2024
05/202407/202409/2024
CumulativeFlows
11/2024
01/202503/2025
05/2025
BitcoinPrice
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
Source:LSEG,IncrementumAG
4.BitcoinOn-Chain
“Bitcoinisaswarmofcyberhornetsservingthegoddessof
wisdom,feedingonthefireoftruth,exponentiallygrowing
eversmarter,faster,andstrongerbehindawallofencrypted
energy.”
MichaelSaylor
33
incrementum
34
AddressesHolding>XBitcoin,2011–2025
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
2010201120122013201420152016201720182019
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