2014-AOPA,

Beijing低空經(jīng)濟(jì)及中國(guó)通用航空發(fā)展趨勢(shì)Low

Altitude

Airspace

Economy

andChinese

General

Aviation

Development

Trend何為低空經(jīng)濟(jì)？--低空開放背景下，利用低空空域資源發(fā)展通用航空，帶動(dòng)通用航空及其相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，并對(duì)相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)生協(xié)同發(fā)展效應(yīng)的一種經(jīng)濟(jì)形態(tài)。Low

Altitude

Airspace

Economy

—LAAE

What’s

is?LAAE

is

a

kind

of

Economy

pattern:

Under

AltitudeAirspace

opening,

utilizing

Altitude

Airspaceresource

to

develop

General

Aviation,

drivingGeneral

Aviation

and

related

industry

development,and

causing

coordination

development

affectionson

other

economic

area.1.低空經(jīng)濟(jì)Low

Altitude

Airspace

Economy低空經(jīng)濟(jì)的特征是一種“立體經(jīng)濟(jì)”，包含了從“天”到“地”經(jīng)濟(jì)元素

“天”—飛機(jī)、飛行員、乘客、貨物、航油航材保障“地”—機(jī)場(chǎng)、FBO、MRO、通用飛機(jī)制造、航空社區(qū)

“天-地”之間—空管、導(dǎo)航、氣象、FSSKey

Points

of

LAAEa

kind

of

stereo

economy,including

the

economy

factors from

Sky

to

Ground.“Sky”—airplane、pilot、passenger、cargo、avi-gas…“Ground”—airport、FBO、MRO、General

Aviationmanufacturing,

air

park“Sky

to

Ground”—air

traffic

control,

FSS,

navigation,

flightinformation

service1.低空經(jīng)濟(jì)Low

Altitude

Airspace

Economy低空經(jīng)濟(jì)的特征產(chǎn)業(yè)涵蓋領(lǐng)域廣通用飛機(jī)—生產(chǎn)工具、交通工具、大玩具、奢侈品通航市場(chǎng)—從公務(wù)航空、作業(yè)航空到航空運(yùn)動(dòng)，高富帥、屌絲人群經(jīng)濟(jì)影響廣泛就像是水融于大地，廣泛融入社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個(gè)方面--工農(nóng)林業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸、旅游、消費(fèi)、教育文化、社會(huì)服務(wù)。。。。Characteristic

of

LAAEIndustry

Cover

WidelyGA

Aircrafts

—

Both

of

the

production

tools,

transportation

tools,

big

toys,luxuriesGA

Market

—

from

business

jet

to

sport

aviation,

from

rich

man,

business

man,

aviationfuns

to

common

people,

cover

a

widely

market

fieldEconomy

effect

extensivelylike

water

drop

into

ground,

Its

economic

affection

extensively

integrate

into

the

variousaspects

of

society

and

economy

—

industy

production,

agriculture,

forestry,

transportation,tourism,

consumer,

education,

culture,

social

service……1.低空經(jīng)濟(jì)Low

Altitude

Airspace

Economy1.低空經(jīng)濟(jì)Low

Altitude

Airspace

Economy“低空經(jīng)濟(jì)”起源于中國(guó)

/

LAAE

originate

from

China.

Why?隨著中國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，中國(guó)蘊(yùn)藏著通用航空巨大的市場(chǎng)與社會(huì)需求。with

the

development

of

Chinese

society

and

economy,

there

is

great

marketneeds

forGA受制于空域管制及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施條件限制，中國(guó)的通用航空發(fā)展滯后，是中國(guó)最后一個(gè)尚 未放開發(fā)展的巨大產(chǎn)業(yè)Be

restricted

to

the

strict

airspace

control,

Chinese

GA

cannot

get

properdevelopment,

is

still

a

great

industry

not

opening

to

development中國(guó)中央政府發(fā)出了開放低空空域的政策信號(hào)，隨著中國(guó)低空空域的開放，中國(guó)通 用航空將迎來(lái)迅猛發(fā)展，低空經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象有望在中國(guó)集中性體現(xiàn)Now,

Chinese

government

released

the

policy

signal

of

opening

the

lowaltitude

airspace

to

development

GA，

with

the

altitude

airspace

opening,Chinese

GA

will

get

rapid

development

and

LAAE

phenomenon

will

likely

appearconcentratedly

in

China全球通用飛機(jī)的出貨量與交付額1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013Global

Total1132

1251

1437

1840

2457

2808

3147

2998

2677

2686

2961

3590

4053

4276

3970

2279

2020

2120

2164

22560400020006000Data

fromGAMA全球飛機(jī)交付量從2007年的4276急劇下降到

2013年的2256架GA

airplaneglobalshipments全球通用飛機(jī)交付量General

Aviation

Airplane

Shipments

Worldwide(1994–2013)drop

sharplyfrom

4276of2007

to

2256of

20132.中國(guó)正成為全球通用航空最為重要的新興市場(chǎng)China

is

going

to

be

the

most

important

GA

market

globally全球通用航空飛機(jī)各地區(qū)的交付量占比（按飛機(jī)制造類型）（2007-2013)Customer

Delivery

Region

for

General

Aviation

Airplane

Shipments

（in

Percent

of

Total）“西邊不亮東邊量”，亞太地區(qū)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)迅猛，通用飛機(jī)交付量在全球的占比逐年上升Contrast

tothedecline

of

globalmarket,

Asia-Pacific’s

marketgrowth

rapid,

themarket

share

gotraised

year

and

year.Data

fromGAMA2.中國(guó)正成為全球通用航空最為重要的新興市場(chǎng)China

is

going

to

be

the

most

important

GA

market

globally019941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013Global

Total113212511437184024572808314729982677268629613590405342763970227920202120216422561000General

Aviation

Airplane

Shipments

Worldwide

(1994–2013)2.中國(guó)正成為全球通用航空最為重要的新興市場(chǎng)2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013保有量

Total

566

618

714

780

903

907 1010

1154

1342

1654增長(zhǎng)量

Growth

52

96

66

123

4

103

144

188

3120500100015002000中國(guó)通用飛機(jī)保有量和增長(zhǎng)量（2004-2013）GeneralAviationAirplanesin

China（2004-2013）China

is

going

to

be

the

most

important

GA

market

globally中國(guó)市場(chǎng)則是持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。2004-2013，年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)12.6%，2012-2013，年增長(zhǎng)率23%Chinese

market

going

up

in

12.6%

from

2004全球通用飛機(jī)50004000交付量3000（1994-

20002013）Data

fromGAMA這還只是中國(guó)空域正待開放時(shí)的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)且不能只看相對(duì)數(shù)，機(jī)隊(duì)規(guī)模絕對(duì)數(shù)是：

中國(guó)(China)1654

vs.

美國(guó)(US)230000中國(guó)市場(chǎng)空間盡可以讓人們?nèi)ゴ竽懴胂骙ou

can

imagine

how

big

the

Chinesemarket

is2.中國(guó)正成為全球通用航空最為重要的新興市場(chǎng)China

is

going

to

be

the

most

important

GA

market

globally中國(guó)通用飛機(jī)未來(lái)需求預(yù)測(cè)The

market

prediction

of

GA

aircrafts

in

ChinaMooney塞斯納CessnaLISA西銳CirrusPilatus巴西航空工業(yè)EmbraerEnstrom大陸航空發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)Continental美國(guó)EAA飛來(lái)者大會(huì)中的“中國(guó)元素”“China

Element”

in

the

EAA

AirVenture，Oshkosh

USICON中國(guó)不僅僅是全球通用航空最為重要的新興市場(chǎng)，也是全球通用航空產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈重要的一員China

is

not

onlythe

most

importantemerging

marketsto

the

globalgeneral

aviation,but

alsoanimportant

part

ofglobal

generalaviation

industrychain3.中國(guó)也正成為全球通用航空產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈重要的一員China

is

also

an

important player

of

global

GA

industry

chain初教六機(jī)隊(duì)CJ-6卓越航空SuperiorFling

Tiger業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)量滯后于機(jī)隊(duì)規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng)原因：新飛機(jī)買了，飛起來(lái)難，還沒有派上用場(chǎng)許多新飛機(jī)是為開展新興業(yè)務(wù)而買，新興業(yè)務(wù)開展難2013年全國(guó)飛行總量58萬(wàn)小時(shí)，較上年增長(zhǎng)約8%業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)：目前主要集中在農(nóng)林化、海上石油、訓(xùn)練飛行等傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域。新興業(yè)務(wù)—除公務(wù)機(jī)外，幾乎還是空白公務(wù)機(jī)、通勤、空中的士、空中游覽、私人飛行、娛樂飛行、小飛機(jī)快遞通用航空中最為精彩的業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域受制于空域管制、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不足、飛行員短缺6.運(yùn)營(yíng)環(huán)境急待改善The

total

flight

hoursis

580

thousands

in2013

over

the

country,the

growth

rate

isonly8%,

behind

the

fleetgrowthMany

new

aircrafts

werebought,

but

remain

on

grounddue

to

the

difficultiesofoperation

--

Limited

toAirspace

control,

inadequateinfrastructure,

shortage

ofpilots4.運(yùn)營(yíng)環(huán)境急待改善GA

Operation

Environment

need

to

be

improved中央政府政策信號(hào)強(qiáng)勁Strong

policy

signals

fromCentral

Government地方政府熱情高漲Passionate

local

governments

產(chǎn)業(yè)資本\投資基金高度關(guān)注

High-attention

from

theindustrial

capital/funds國(guó)外產(chǎn)業(yè)主力開始在中國(guó)布局Strategic

layouts

of

foreignmain

industrial

powers

in

China發(fā)展需求強(qiáng)烈各路力量蓄勢(shì)待發(fā)市場(chǎng)空間巨大政策信號(hào)顯現(xiàn)5.中國(guó)通用航空目前發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)The

current

situation

of

Chinese

GA

DevelopmentStrongimpulse

forDevelopmentPush

toGoChina’s

GA

will

be

developedrapidlyHugeSpace

forMarketingShowingPolicySignals中國(guó)通用航空將迎來(lái)迅猛發(fā)展政策試點(diǎn)

/

園區(qū)試點(diǎn)

/

通用航空機(jī)場(chǎng)

單點(diǎn)建設(shè)從“點(diǎn)”看–呈星星之火之勢(shì)僅僅單點(diǎn)開花、本場(chǎng)空域開放是不夠的—能飛，但飛不出去只有實(shí)現(xiàn)點(diǎn)到點(diǎn)個(gè)人飛行，并達(dá)到低空飛行常態(tài)化，方能成就通用航空產(chǎn)業(yè)點(diǎn)到點(diǎn)任務(wù)飛行個(gè)人飛行常態(tài)化通用航空產(chǎn)業(yè)達(dá)到成就點(diǎn)Point--珠海、武漢、南寧、渭南、廣漢、法庫(kù)、萊蕪、安陽(yáng)、千島湖、廈門、北京、天津、海南、鄭州。。。More

and

more

cities

are

starting

orplanning

to

construct

GA

airports,but

just

in

“points”

not

in

“network”O(jiān)nly

“point”

–

the

limitedairspace’s

opening

-

is

not

enough–

can

take

off,

but

cannot

fly

outThe

point-to-pointprivate

flight’snormalization

should

be

the

keyto

accomplish

GA

industry5.點(diǎn)-線-面--中國(guó)通用航空發(fā)展之路徑Point-Line-Area—

Chinese

GA

Developing

routeork但，指望短期內(nèi)全面性放開不現(xiàn)實(shí)The

expectation

of

fully

opening

of

China’sairspace

is

unrealistic更為現(xiàn)實(shí)可行的做法：由點(diǎn)到線，劃設(shè)區(qū)域性

低空飛行航線，開辟非定期固定飛行業(yè)務(wù)。Feasible

solution:From

point

to

line,set

upthe

regional

low-altitude

flying

route,

andoperate

fixed

flying

tasks

regularly從需求出發(fā)，按需劃線Draw

the

flying

route

“Line”

based

on

demand從天到地，沿線構(gòu)建機(jī)場(chǎng)、空管與地面服務(wù)體系建設(shè)From

sky

to

ground,

build

airport,

air

traffic

control

andground

service

systemalong

with

the

“Line”線重要進(jìn)展Important

progress目前已在珠海、海南、寧波等地劃設(shè)了目視飛行低空航線Now

there

are

some

VFRflight

route

drewin

some

area-

Zhuhai,Hainan

and

NingboLine5.點(diǎn)-線-面--中國(guó)通用航空發(fā)展之路徑Point-Line-Area—

Chinese

GA

Developing

route通用航空運(yùn)營(yíng)環(huán)境構(gòu)建—是一個(gè)系統(tǒng)工程“看天看地”、“由天到地”、“有軟有硬”

“天”—空域資源“地”—基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、地面服務(wù)保障“由天到地”—空地?cái)?shù)據(jù)鏈建立、空管關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)：

區(qū)域通用航空運(yùn)營(yíng)環(huán)境構(gòu)建

低空空域有效管理“軟”—政策法規(guī)、飛行行為規(guī)則、管理體系、飛行綜合信息服務(wù)系統(tǒng)“硬”—機(jī)場(chǎng)、FBO、FSS、設(shè)施設(shè)備低空空域管理—高效、安全、用戶友好,動(dòng)態(tài)空域管理如何構(gòu)建？推動(dòng)主體？參與機(jī)制？投融資安排？面本場(chǎng)空域開放低空飛行航路區(qū)域性低空空域開放5.點(diǎn)-線-面--中國(guó)通用航空發(fā)展之路徑Point-Line-Area—

Chinese

GA

Developing

route點(diǎn)

線

面Key

points：

set

up

regional

GA

operation

environmentEffectively

management

the

low

altitude

airspaceset

up

regional

GA

operation

environment—

a

system

engineering“Sky”、“Ground”、“From

Sky

to

Ground”,“Software

and

Hardware”“Sky”—

airspace

resouce“Ground”—

airport,

FBO,

operation

facilities,

ground

service“From

Sky

to

Ground”—

flight

data

chain’s

establishing,

air

traffic

control“Software”—

law

and

policy,

flight

regulations,

management

system“Hardware”—

infrastructureEffectively

management

the

low

altitude

airspace—

Balance

between

safety,

efficiency

and

user-friendly;

dynamic

airspace

managementDot

airspace

openingabove

airportLow

altitudeflight

routeRegional

area

low

altitudeairspace

openingArea5.點(diǎn)-線-面--中國(guó)通用航空發(fā)展之路徑Point-Line-Area—

Chinese

GA

Developing

routepoint

line

Area空域開放airspace

opening基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施及運(yùn)營(yíng)保障體系

The

infrastructure

andoperation

support

system行業(yè)管理政策及行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)Industry

policies

and

industrystandards風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制與管理機(jī)制Risk

control

and

management終端市場(chǎng)的培育Market’s

development行業(yè)規(guī)范和行業(yè)行為準(zhǔn)則

Industry

regulations

and

flightbehavior人才培養(yǎng)Personnel

training。。。除了空域開放外，制約通用航空發(fā)展的其它一些關(guān)鍵性問題短時(shí)間內(nèi)難以完全解決。Except

airspace’s

opening,

other

problems

that

restrainGA’sdevelopment

can’t

be

completely

solved

momentarily政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展環(huán)境營(yíng)造需要過(guò)程。Policy

and

industry

development

environment

need

toprocess.投資者從了解產(chǎn)業(yè)、認(rèn)識(shí)產(chǎn)業(yè)到投入需要時(shí)間。From

understanding

the

industry

to

investing

the

industry,the

investors

need

time.航空文化建設(shè)更是一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期的過(guò)程—得從娃娃抓起…Aviationculture

nurture

is

an

even

longer

term

to

process,--

need

tostart

with

thechildren.6.做好產(chǎn)業(yè)大發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備To

prepare

for

the

great

GA

development

of

China尚未進(jìn)入實(shí)質(zhì)性發(fā)展快車道，仍處于重要的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備期但從紙面落到了實(shí)處，已開始進(jìn)行實(shí)實(shí)在在的發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備“都在做發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備”--出政策、做規(guī)劃、修機(jī)場(chǎng)、建公司、買飛 機(jī)、賣飛機(jī)，引項(xiàng)目。。。我們判斷：中國(guó)通用航空的大發(fā)展尚需要1-2年的產(chǎn)業(yè)準(zhǔn)備期there

is

a

1-2

years

preparation

period

for

the

great

development

of

China’s

GA6.做好產(chǎn)業(yè)大發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備To

prepare

for

the

great

GA

development

of

ChinaCentral

Government--

makepoliciesLocal

Governments--

make

development

plan,build

airportsInvestors

and

companies--

buy

aircrafts,

find

pilots,make

business

plansAll

people

are

very

busyto

prepare

for……盡管還沒有做好產(chǎn)業(yè)大發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備，盡管還需要1-2年的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備期，但并不是說(shuō)大家都要坐等觀望1-2年。我們認(rèn)為，即使在產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備期，通用航空也會(huì)在局部區(qū)域、局部產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域得到率先迅猛發(fā)展。把握產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展節(jié)奏！規(guī)劃期產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃、機(jī)場(chǎng)規(guī)劃、業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)劃、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、政策環(huán)境營(yíng)造產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展準(zhǔn)備期申請(qǐng)政策試點(diǎn)、局部區(qū)域、局部產(chǎn)業(yè)領(lǐng)域率先得到發(fā)展產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展期政策與產(chǎn)業(yè)環(huán)境完備，產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈完善，通用航空業(yè)務(wù)全面開展7.把握產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展節(jié)奏Step

on

the

rhythm

of

industry

developmentAlthough

it

would

take

1-2

yearsto

pre