Thefutureoffreight

Navigatingavolatiletime

Thefutureoffreight

Navigatingavolatiletime

Deloitte’sTransportationpracticeappliesasix-forcemodeltoevaluate

impactsonfreightmarketstodayandintothefuture.Sinceourlastreportin2022,significantshiftshavetakenplaceineachofthesedomains.

Someofwhatweareseeing:

?Nearshoringwilllikelycontinuetoconfer

benefitsandchallengestotrucking,third-partylogistics(3PL),andrailcompanies.

?Technologicalshiftsappeartobepickingup

acrossallmodesoftransportation,necessitatingpartnershipswithbothtechnologyprovidersandoutsourcepartners.

?Someincumbentsarelookingtodisruptmarketsasmuch—ormore—thanstartups,asthey

continuetoevaluatetheirconfigurationacrossmarketstomaximizeshareholdervalue.

?Innovationsinautonomousvehicles,electricvehicles,alternativefuel,andtelematicsareexpectedtocontinuetofront-runsignificantchangestofleets.

?Companiesthatwanttoshapebetter

governmentpoliciesarefindingwaystocollaboratewiththepublicsectortohelpallocatecapitaleffectively.

Freight’sresiliencemayhingeonrecognizingitsgeopoliticalinterdependence,deepeningpublic-private

collaboration,andrigorouslyscenario-planningforuncertainfutures.

Thesixforcesthatshapethefutureoffreight

1.Nearshoring

2.Technologyanddata

3.Changingcompetitivedynamics

4.Restructuring

5.Fleettransformation

6.Public/privatepartnerships

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight2

Livinginawildcardworld

Nowmorethanever,thefutureisamovingtarget

Thefreightlandscapeisincreasinglyunpredictable.Geopoliticaltensions,macroeconomicshifts,newtechnologies,andbusinessmodelsarecreatinganoperatingenvironmentunlikeanywehaveseen.

$145B

69%

Bottomline

Fundamentalsof

economictruthwill

remain.Untilthen,

uncertaintyistheonlysafebet.

Increaseinvalueofglobaltradefrom2019to2024($19Tto$33T)1

InNorthAmericantransborder

freight,anincreaseof8.4%March2024toMarch20253

35

Today,thereare35dealsaboveUS$1billiontotalingroughlyUS$400billionindealvalue,pendingapprovalby

regulators

10%–245%

Currentrangeofproposedtariffs

betweentheUSandothercountries2

$15B

Amazon’sinvestmentin~80

additionallogisticsfacilitiesintheUS,amongothercompanies6

45%–60%

EstimatedprobabilityofrecessionintheUSinthenext12months,drivenbyanumberofmacroeconomic

factors5

1.ColemanNeeandVictorStolzenburg,“

Trendsintradeandemergingdataneeds

,”WorldTradeOrganization,September24,2024.2.EugenioCatone,“

Tariffsincreaseto245%onChina:What’sthelimit?

,”SeekingAlpha,April16,2025.3.US

DepartmentofTransportation

BTSDataInventory

,accessedJuly2025;4.TroyHooper,“

Dealactivitycoolsamidglobaleconomicuncertainty

,”Mergermarket,May8,2025.5.PrestonCaldwell,“

USrecessionchancesjumpinnewpost

-

tariff

forecast

,”MorningStar,April7,2025.6.NatalieWongandSpencerSoper,

“Amazonseekspartnersfor$15Bwarehouseexpansionplan

,”Bloomberg,April9,2025.7.GordonS.Barker,“

ThelegacyoftariffsinUShistory:RenewingtheMcKinley

-

Hawaii

strategy?

,”ActiveHistory,March19,2025.

3

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight4

Thegoldenruleofvolatility:

Ithinkthereisaworldmarketformaybefivecomputers.”

—ThomasWatson,chairmanofIBM,1943

Foolingaroundwithalternating

currentisawasteoftime,noonewilluseit,ever.”

—ThomasEdison,1889

Stayopentomultiplefutures

Plottingapathinanunsuretime

Whenyoupredictasinglefuture,youarealmostguaranteedtobewrong.

There’sjustnotthatmanyvideosIwanttowatch.”

—SteveChen,founderofYouTube,2005

beusedtoprovidebettertelephone,telegraph,television,orradioserviceintheUnitedStates.”

—T.Kraven,FCCCommissioner,1961

Thefutureoffreight

5

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.

Wherewe’reheaded

DeloitteChiefFuturistEamonnKellyonwhatwethinkaboutwhenwethinkaboutthefutureofglobaltransportation

“Theglobaltransportationindustryisexpectedtobereshapedbygeopolitical

trends,theimpactof

environmentalchanges,

andexponentialadvancesintechnology.”

EamonnKelly

ChiefFuturist

DeloitteOfficefortheFuture

Geopoliticaltrends:Trade,tariffs,andnationalindustrialpoliciesshowanongoingtrendawayfromglobaltrading,whichunderpinnedthedevelopmentofsupplyandtransportationnetworksoverthepastfewdecades.Choices

madeduringthepandemicerahaveunleashedconsequentialchangesthatwilllikelydemandtheattentionoftransportationleaders,boards,andpolicymakersfordecadestocome.

Environmentalimpact:Thisareawillemergeasacounterbalancetotheeconomicadvantagesofglobaltrade.

Globalsupplychainshaveasignificantimpactontheenvironment.Inthecomingdecades,broadsocietalforceswilldemandtherestorationofbalance.Extremeweatherandenvironmentalshiftsmaycausedisruptionstothe

predictabilityoflong-distanceandnearshoremaritimeshipping.

Technology:Overthenextfewyears,expecttoseeadvancesintechnologiesincludingmachinelearning,computervision,artificialintelligence,large-scalesimulation,andmore.Transportationisadoptingthesetechnologiesata

pacedictatedbytheireconomics—apacethatcanbeexpectedtoincrease,asgainsriseandcostsfall.

Scenarioplanninghedgesuncertainty:Theprocessofworkingwithmultiplepotentialscenarios—includingworst-andbest-casescenarios,andthepossibilitiesinbetween—remainsleaders’besthedgeagainsttheuncertaintiesofavolatileworld.

Thefutureoffreight

6

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.

Forcesshapingthefutureoffreight

Sixinterrelatedandoverlappingforceshelpunderstandthedynamicsoffreightnowandintothefuture

POTENTIALIMPACT

CURRENTPACEOFCHANGE

1

Nearshoring

Manufacturingcontinuestomoveclosertoconsumers,helpingtoreducerisksandcosts.

HIGH

RAPID

2

Technologyanddata

Whilenewtechnologiesaredeveloping,thefreightsectorisexperimentingbutmaintainsaconservativeadoptioncurve.

HIGH

MODEST

3

Changingcompetitivedynamics

Newchallengersandshiftinglinesofbusinessconstantlyremakethecompetitivelandscape.

MODERATE

RAPID

4

Restructuring

Acquisitionsanddivestituresappeartobecreatingsynergies,improvingoperationalefficiency,solidifyingmarketpositions,andexpandingcapabilities.

MODERATE

RAPID

5

Fleettransformation

Newfuels,advancedtelematics,andautonomousfeatures,drivenbytechandpolicy,arecreatingnewrulesand

dependenciesinachangingindustry.

HIGH

GRADUAL

6

Public/privatepartnerships

Governmentshavedeeppocketsthatcouldallowthemtotakeontheworld’smostambitioustransportationprojectswhileprivateindustryappearstohavetheagilityneededtopullthemoff.

HIGH

MODEST

Sources:FutureofFreight:TransformingtheMovementofGoods,DeloitteInsights,November2022Gartner,S&PCapitalIQPro

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight7

1

Nearshoring

Manufacturing,closertoconsumers

Nearshoringisimpactingforeigndirectinvestment,manufacturing,andshippinginNorthAmerica.ThetrendisnowalsoevidentinEurope,whileIndiamaybethenextblockofconsumerslarge

enoughtodrawsignificantmanufacturingnear-oronshore.

8%

RiseintradevaluebetweenUS,

Mexico,andCanada,fromJanuary2024toJanuary20251

64%

Amountofcross-borderfreightwithCanadaandMexicotransportedbytruckin20233

3.9%

IncreaseinvalueofNorthAmericantransborderfreightfromDecember2023toDecember20242

Bottomline

Asincreasedmanufacturingcapacitycomesonline,

trucking,3PL,andrail

companiesshouldfindwaystocapitalizeonthese

200%

Increaseinaveragecapital

expenditureofFDIprojectsinCentralandEasternEurope,2019to20235

250,000

Annualproductioncapacityof

carsboundfortheIndianmarketatSuzuki’snewplantin

Kharkhoda,India6

62%

opportunities.

IncreaseinFDIflowingtoEastern

European,CentralEuropean,and

NorthAfricanmanufacturingprojects,2018to20234

1.NoiMahoney,“

BorderlandsMexico:UStradewithCanada,Mexicohit$134BinJanuary

,”FreightWaves,March16,2025.2.BureauofTransportationStatistics(BTS),“

NorthAmericantransborderfreightrose3.9%inDecember2024from

December2023

,”February20,2025.3.BTS,“

ValueandtonnageofU.S.freighttradewithCanadaandMexicobytransportationmode

,”December2024.4.AlexIrwin-Hunt,“

TheriseofnearshoringFDIclosetoEurope

,”FDIIntelligence,February21,2024.5.CBRE,“

Threetrendsdrivingresurgent3PLindustrialdemandthisyear

,”November11,2024.6.Suzuki,“

SuzukistartsoperationsatKharkhodaplantinIndia

,”pressrelease,February25,2025.

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight8

2

Technologyanddata

Newabilities,newinsights

SeeDeloitte’slatestinsights:

GenAIintransportation|

DeloitteInsights

Asdigitaltechnologiescontinuetoadvance,thefreightindustryisbecomingincreasinglyconsumerized,dataisbeingharnessedforefficiencygains,andAIisenablingmoreaccurateplanningforlabor,assets,andshipments.

51%

CAGRforAI/AItechnologiesbetween2022and2032,expectedtogrow

from$40Bto$1.3T1

32.1B

IoTdevicesconnectedworldwideby2030(upfrom15.9billionin2023)2

100,000

NumberofAI-enabledcustomer

serviceresponseshandleddailybyonetechnologylogisticscompany3

Bottomline

Whenitcomestomaking

technologicalshifts,one

75%

OfsupplychainexecutivessurveyedhaveoneormoreGenAIpilotsor

implementationsunderway4

48%

OffreightcompaniessurveyedapplyAItoimprovecustomerrelationshipmanagement3

82%

Oforganizationssurveyed

characterizetheirlevelofAI

adoptionlimitedinscopeorimpact3

importantquestiontoansweriswhen,followedbywhomtocollaboratewith,andhowtostructurepartnerships

andoutsourcing.

1.Bloomberg,“

GenerativeAItobecomea$1.3trillionmarketby2032,researchfinds

,”pressrelease,June16,2023.2.LionelSujayVailshery,”

NumberofInternetofThings(IoT)connectionsworldwidefrom2022to2023,with

forecastsfrom2024to203

4,”Statista,June26,2025.3.Deloitte,“

IsGenAIthefutureoftransportationefficiency?

,”ThatMakesCentspodcast,February21,2025.4.LarryHitchcocketal.,“

GenAItransformingtransportation:

Lessonsfromthefrontierofanemergingtechnology

,”DeloitteInsights,November21,2024.

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight9

3

Newcompetitivedynamics

Newchallengers,novelopportunities

Bigmovesbyincumbentscombinedwithdisruptionbynewentrantscontinuetoreshapecompetitionintheglobaltransportationindustry.

$200B

GrowthintheglobalLastMile

Deliverymarketby2028representingaCAGRof16.4%1

60%

Oftraditionalfreightbrokerbusinessatriskfromemergingdigital

marketplaces2

$31B

Estimatedindustrysavingsexpectedby2030byleveragingblockchain

technologiesfortransparency3

Bottomline

Innovationisnotthe

exclusivebirthrightof

startups.Incumbentsmustknowtheirexposuresand

$800M

Losstakenonthesaleofalogistics

80%

Ofprivatefleetloadsthatrunemptyduringbackhauls;afundedstartuphasplanstocapitalizeonthisexcesscapacity5

10M+

AutonomousmilesloggedbyoneOEM’sautonomousClass8trucks,signalingashiftfrompilottoreal-worlddeployment6

findmarketstodisruptwiththeirscale,resources,

andexpertise.

business;somelegacycarriersappeartobeacceptingshort-termlossestopivottowardhigher-marginservices4

1.DanielMartinez,“

Lastmiledelivery:Whatyouneedtoknow

,”Ryder’sLastMileBlog,May9,2025.2.TimJay,“

Nearly60%offreightbrokersstillusepaperchecksbutmostthinkdigitalizationwouldimproveoperations

,”GlobalTrade,November16,2022.3.ConorCawley,“

Logisticsstatistics2025:Industrynumbersyouneedtoknow

,”Tech.co,March26,2025.4.JamesMatthews,”

UPStakes$800MlossonCoyoteLogisticssale

,”ShipRX,July1,2024.5.Trigent,

“

MaximizingfleetefficiencyanddrivingsustainabilityforPFNZ

,”Trigent,accessedJuly2025.6.TuSimpleHoldings,Inc.,“

TuSimple’sautonomoustruckscommencetestingonexpresswayinJapan

,”pressrelease,June5,2023.

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight10

4

Restructuring

Ever-changing,value-oriented

Consolidations,acquisitions,spinouts,anddivestmentscontinuetoimpactthefreightsector,offering

operationalcostsavings,verticalintegration,andnewwaystocompetetohelpbolsterresilienceandversatility.

$456M

AcquisitioncostofreverselogisticsproviderHappyReturnsin2023;

thecompanyenablesno-box,

no-labelreturnsformerchantsandconsumers2

$6B

TotalcostofMaerskacquisitionsofPilotFreight,SenatorInternational,andLFLogistics3

$1.1B

InvestedbyCMACGMtoacquirea48%stakeinSantosBrasil,whichoperatesfivecontainerterminalsandthree

logisticsfacilities,includingSouthAmerica’slargest,TeconSantos1

Bottomline

Restructuringcontinuestobeapowerfulcompetitivetool

fortransportationcompaniestomaximizeshareholder

value.Companiesshould

600,000

Numberofshipmentshandledperyearbycold-chainlogisticsproviderCRYOPDP,acquiredbyDHLin20255

220M

NumberofannualcontainersMSC

couldhandleby2028afterrecent

acquisitions;MSC’sfleetcurrentlyhas900vessels6

11%

ShareofFedEx’s2024revenuethat

camefromFedExFreight,whichis

expectedtobecomethenation’s

largestLTLcarrierwhenfullyspunoff4

continuouslyevaluatewhetherfine-tuningtheirportfolioof

businessesunlocks

shareholdervalue,whilealsobalancingfactorssuchaslabordisputesandregulations.

1.CMACGM,“

CMACGMtoacquireac.48%stakeinSantosBrasil

,”pressrelease,September23,2024.2.AndrewAdamNewman,

“TheCEOofHappyReturnsexplains‘thebrightsideofreturnfees

’,”RetailBrew,December15,2023.3.S&PCapitalIQPro,

MaerskMergersandAcquisitions

,accessedApril28,2025.4.FedEx,“

FedExannouncesintenttoseparateFedExFreight,creatingtwoindustry

-

leadingpubliccompanies

,”pressrelease,December19,2024.5.DHL,“

DHLGroupacquiresCRYOPDPfromCryoporttostrengthen‘DHLHealthLogistics

’,”pressrelease,March31,2025.6.ManalBarakat,“

MSCbecomestopportoperatorwithHutchisonPortsacquisition

,”Kuehne+Nagel,March14,2025.

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight11

5

Fleettransformation

Highinnovation,constrainedadoption

Advancesinelectricvehicles,alternativefuels,autonomousvehicles,andtelematicscontinuetomoveahead,butregulatoryuncertainty,combinedwithreluctancetotakeonunnecessaryexpensehas

resultedinaslowpaceofadoptionacrossthefreightindustry.

8.9%

ExpectedgrowthintheUSvehicle

telematicsmarketfrom2024to20321

75

Topspeedinmilesperhourofautonomoustractortrailers

operatedbyAuroraonitsDallas-Houstonroute2

8M

LitersofB20fuelusedover1,100

fuelingeventsduringabiofueltrialinBritishColumbiaconductedbyCPKC3

Bottomline

Whiletechnologyisexpectedtocontinuetoadvance

quickly,riskandcapital

expenditures,combinedwithapotentiallylightertouch

24

Numberofdual-fuelshipswithfuel-efficientenginesorderedbyHapag-Lloydtobedeliveredbetween2027and20294

2,600

NumberofVectronelectric/diesel

150

NumberofMANeTrucksVolkswagenAGplanstodelivertoDBSchenkerby20266

regulatoryenvironment

couldpushmeaningful

adoptionlevelspast2030.

dual-fuellocomotivesSiemens

Mobilityhassoldacross16countries5

1.FortuneBusinessInsights,

Vehicletelematicsmarketreport,

April7,2025.2.DavidTaube,

“Auroratruckswithoutdriversreachhighwayspeedsontesttrack

,”TruckingDive,April24,2024.3.CPKC,“

CPKCpublishesupdateon

lowcarbontransition

,”pressrelease,February20,2025.4.Hapag-Lloyd,“

Hapag

-

Lloydorders24newcontainerships

,”pressrelease,November6,2024.5.Siemens,“

Northrailexpandsfleetwithupto50newVectron

locomotives

,”pressrelease,February20,2025.6.ZsófiaP?l?s,“

DBSchenkeraddsfirst10ofplanned150MANelectrictruckstofleet

,”MotorTransport,January31,2025.

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight12

6

Public/privatepartnerships

Collaboratingforthepublicgood

InthewakeofCOVID-19-relatedchallenges,thecapitalneededtoremediatethevulnerabilitiesexposedbythepandemicexceededthecapacityoftheprivatesector.Public/privatepartnerships(PPPs)

emergedtoreimaginelogisticsnetworksandtoaddressmaintenanceandmodernizationneeds.Theycontinuetobeadrivingforceinmodernfreight.

$1.3T

TotalcapitalraisedforinfrastructureinvestmentintheUSthroughPPPs2

€6.5B

EurosinvestedthroughPPPsinEurope’stransportationsector3

$86B

Privateparticipationininfrastructureprojectsworldwidein2023;theworldcontinuestorelyonPPPsforfinancingkeytransportandlogisticsassets1

Bottomline

Partneringwithgovernmentscanofferprivatecompaniespotentiallysignificantwaystoimpactbothtransportation

infrastructureandpublic

$13B

DollarvalueofpublicandprivateinvestmentintheInteroceanic

CorridoroftheIsthmusof

Tehuantepec(CIIT)freightcorridorinMexico,analternativetothe

PanamaCanal5

100%

GovernmentcargowillbetransportedonUS-flaggedvessels,asoutlinedin

30%–40%

ReductioninfreighttransittimesusingIndia’sdedicated

freightcorridor6

policy.Considerseekingoutwaystotakepart,while

remainingcognizantofgeopoliticalsituations.

the2025USExecutiveOrderviapublic-privatepartnershipsto

enhancedomesticshipbuildingandmaritimesectors

1.DeblinaSahaetal.,

Privateparticipationininfrastructure(PPI)annualreport

,WorldBankGroup,2023.2.TCRolfstad,“

Thecaseforprivateinfrastructureinthemodernera

,”HamiltonLane,June5,2024.3.EuropeanInvestmentBank,

Marketupdate:ReviewoftheEuropeanpublic

-

privatepartnershipmarketin2024

,March2025.4.ChristophNedopil,

ChinaBelt

andRoadInitiative(BRI)InvestmentReport2024

,GriffithAsiaInstituteandGreenFinance&DevelopmentCenter,February2025.5.AbdelElMakhloufiandMiguelMujicaMota,“

NavigatingMexico’sInteroceaniccorrido

r,”MultilogConference2024,June6–7,2024.6.CorporateWebsite,

DFCC

:

NewPt.DeenDayalUpadhyaya

,GMRGroup,accessedJuly2025.

Thefutureoffreight

13

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.

Puttingitalltogether

Lookingaheadto2030,sixforcesimpactmodesoftransportationindifferentways

Bottomline

Parcel,trucking,and3PLare

seeinghighimpactsacross

multipleforces.Impactson

oceanandrailappeartobe

moresubdued,dueinpartto

theirmoreconsolidatednatureandthehigheroverallcostof

infrastructureupdates.

Technologyandfleet

transformationappeartohaveveryhighpotentialimpacts,

followedbynearshoringandrestructuring,withnew

competitivedynamicsandpublic/privatepartnershipsseeingslightlylessaction.

FORCES

1

2

3

4

5

6

MODE

Nearshoring

Technologyanddata

New

competitivedynamics

Restructuring

Fleet

transformation

Public/privatepartnerships

Parcel

MEDIUM

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

HIGH

LOW

Trucking

MEDIUM

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

HIGH

LOW

3PL

HIGH

MEDIUM

HIGH

MEDIUM

MEDIUM

LOW

Ocean

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

MEDIUM

MEDIUM

MEDIUM

Rail

LOW

MEDIUM

LOW

LOW

MEDIUM

LOW

Copyright?2025DeloitteDevelopmentLLC.Allrightsreserved.Thefutureoffreight14

Summary

Plottingapathinanunsuretime

A

Collaboration

Interdependence

Scenarioplanning

Inaneraofuncertainty,boardsandmanagement

teamsshouldconsiderengaginginscenarioplanningtoconsiderarangeofpossiblefuturesandavarietyofpotentialresponsestofulfilltheirfiduciarydutiestoshareholders.

Passiveapproachesthatalloweventsto“playout”isanon-strategicoptionthatcancausecompaniestoforgoopportunitiesthataddvalueforshareholders.

Thefreightsubsectorisexpectedtobeimpactedbygeopoliticalforcesthatcrossregionsandcountries.Giventheinternationalnatureofsupplychains,andchangesinconsumptionpatterns,thetransportationindustryisbothcomplexandcriticaltothe

Volatilitycreatesbothriskandopportunity.These

factorsarelikelytospuranincreaseinforeigndirectinvestmentasindustrieslookforpotentialwaystocapitalizeonopportunitiesandhedgerisk.

globaleconomy.

Nuancedunderstandingofthefutu