TheBackgroundofRiskandUncertaintyinconstructionProjects工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理與保險(xiǎn)OutlineIntroductionRiskandDecisionRiskandPeoplesRiskinPropertyProjectsRiskandContractsRiskIndexRiskandUncertaintyIntroduction-Why“Placeyourwaterlinelow”?AnalogyRiskManagementis——notpredictingthefuture;——atoolaboutunderstandingprojectandmakingbetterdecision.TwoattitudeAGAP:AllGoesAccordingtoPlanWHIF:WhatHappensIf……

RiskManagementRiskandDecisionsWhathappenswhengroupsmakedecision?Whenagroupofpeoplediscussarisk-takingproblem,theyusuallyarriveatariskiersolutionthantheaverageoftheirownpreviousindividualsolution.why?IntuitionBasedDecisionBiasandIntuitionExpertsandExperienceRulesofThumbMakingaModelProgrammedDecisionsDecisionsthatwererepeatableandhighlystructuredareprogrammed.Thesesortofdecisionsaremoreamenabletocomputermodeling.Somebasiccomponentsofdecision-makingObjectivesChoicesThefactorswhichmustbetakenintoaccountStrategies(策略)Technology(技術(shù))Attitudetoriskofthedecision-makerPreferences(shortandlongtime)RecognitionofbiasRiskandPeoplesinconstructionprocessClients-PublicSectorCentralgovernmentbuilding,roads,dams,bridges,sewersandotherengineeringworks;Universities,highereducationbuildings;Hospitals；Nationalindustries；Localauthorities;（地方政府和當(dāng)局）HousingPrivateSectorOwnershipManufactures（制造商）,Retailers（零售商）,Servicecompanies（服務(wù)公司）;Householders;Privateinfrastructure（基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施）operators;Churches（教堂）,Charities（慈善機(jī)構(gòu)）;Utilitycompanies（公共事業(yè)公司）.Investment/PropertydealingBanks;PensionFunds;Insurancecompany;PropertyBonds;Individuals;Developers/Housebuilders.Client’needshavechangedForexample:MoreFlexibleTheyallowdesigntobeincompleteatthetenderstage,andtheyallowclientstochangetheirmindsduringtheconstructionphase.Allthishastobetempered（磨合）withrealitybecausetherewillalwaysbeinherentconflictbetweencertaintyandflexibility.Consultants職業(yè)責(zé)任:職業(yè)回報(bào)和擔(dān)負(fù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不成比例勘查設(shè)計(jì)師、土地規(guī)劃工程師、環(huán)境評(píng)價(jià)師、安全評(píng)價(jià)師設(shè)計(jì)師（建筑、結(jié)構(gòu)、安裝、水電、暖通、裝飾）造價(jià)工程師監(jiān)理工程師職業(yè)工程管理人員（建造師）RiskofInvestmentInPropertyHighRiskInvestment:OneclassiccaseisthatpensionfunddevotedintoPropertyissmallandfalling(from21%in1981to7%in1991);Ittakesalongtimetocompleteapropertytransaction;beforeoccupancy,thereisonlyriskandnoreturn.Butstocksareliquid.Itwillbeinfluentbycomplicatedfactors.RiskandContractingForexample:Contractingintimesofhighinflationandwithafixedprice.Traditionalrelationshipbetweenthecontractorsandclientshavebeenchanged,whichhasincreasedtheburdenofidentifyingwhereresponsibilitylieswhensomethinggoeswrong.RiskIndexChoiceofactionVoluntaryorinvoluntaryChanceforlossProbabilityorfrequencyMagnitudeoflossCharacter,extent,timeAbilitytomanageResources,timingRiskandUncertainty

Riskexistswhenadecisionisexpressedintermsofarangeofpossibleoutcomes(outcomesisuncertain).Uncertaintyexistwhenthereismorethanonepossibleoutcomeofacourseofactionbuttheprobabilityofeachoutcomeisunknown.DealingUncertainty:

LookingatPasttoForecastFutureTherearetwostagestothisprocess:Weinferwhatthefuturewillbelikebeforeourproposedaction.weinferanyeffectsouractionmighthave.TheForecastProcessinputForecastmethodsoutputInsight（洞察）DataAssumptionKnowledgeSkill/experienceIntuitionPrejudiceBiasQuantitativeQualitativeSomeimportantconsiderationDataavailabilityVariabilityandconsistencyofdataTimehorizonCostofproducingtheforecastAccuracyandreliabilityHavinganopenmindaboutfutureUnderstandingUncertaintyinRiskAnalysisSourcesofuncertainty:StatisticalvariationSystematicerrorSubjectivejudgmentLinguisticimprecision（語言誤差）VariabilityInherentrandomnessorunpredictabilityDisagreementApproximation（近似）Uncertaintyandvariabilityhavedifferentimplicationsfordecision-making(NRC1994):“Uncertaintyforcesdecisionmakerstojudgehowprobableitisthatriskswillbe