基于股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流模型的工商銀行估值分析案例目錄TOC\o"1-3"\h\u10643一、緒論 117024（一）研究背景 17051（一）研究目的和意義 218533二、股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流模型 228569(一)股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流定義 212195(二)股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流公式 320928(三)估值模型 3315301.股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流模型（FCFE模型） 3277402.連續(xù)價值（CV） 3149473.估計資本成本（CAPM） 328077(四)估值的步驟 413600三、中國工商銀行所在行業(yè)里的基本情況 420098(一)工商銀行的相關(guān)信息 414358(二)財務(wù)簡介 42907四、工商銀行的估值 103580(一)過去股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流分析 1019324(二)預(yù)測未來的利潤表 11211871.預(yù)測工商銀行的存款與貸款 1135312.營業(yè)收入的預(yù)測 14311153.非主營業(yè)務(wù)的收入手續(xù)費和傭金收入 15290414.營業(yè)支出預(yù)測 16254075.利潤表預(yù)測 178330(三)預(yù)測未來資產(chǎn)負債表 174854(四)估算資本成本 22218791.無風(fēng)險收益率 22139732.市場收益率 22305983.β的求取 23115884.估算銀行價值 25291935.相對估值法 2617067五、價值結(jié)論 27緒論（一）研究背景隨著市場經(jīng)濟與現(xiàn)代企業(yè)制度的發(fā)展，兩者相互結(jié)合是必然之果，而兩者的相互結(jié)合也必然會出現(xiàn)企業(yè)價值評估。西方發(fā)達國家在長期的歷史進程中，經(jīng)濟市場衍生出眾多價值評估體系?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)將世界經(jīng)濟浪潮帶入高峰，隨著我國的市場經(jīng)濟體制的建立和完善，資本市場在金融市場中的地位也越來越收人關(guān)注。我們都知道資源在市場的流動是不公平的，而正式由于這種不公平的存在評估體系才顯現(xiàn)出其重要性張雙巧.自由現(xiàn)金流的影響因素和綜合評價研究.天津財經(jīng)大學(xué).2017。市場上這種圍繞這企業(yè)與企業(yè)之間產(chǎn)權(quán)交易活動的頻率漸高，人們對于其評估結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確性的要求也越來越嚴苛，其重要性自然日漸明。張雙巧.自由現(xiàn)金流的影響因素和綜合評價研究.天津財經(jīng)大學(xué).2017（一）研究目的和意義自二十一世紀以來，企業(yè)營運所追求的已經(jīng)不再是單純地獲得利益，而是如何促成企業(yè)價值最大化。近年來我國引發(fā)了一輪的并購高峰，各種各樣的收購兼并活動如火如荼的進行著，特別是與外資相關(guān)的并購活動在這一輪的高峰中尤為引人注目。而這樣的背景之下，企業(yè)要想在有國際資本參與競爭的環(huán)境中把握好機遇并且世界經(jīng)濟波濤中站穩(wěn)腳步，必將成為我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。企業(yè)利益相關(guān)者和各種投資者門對企業(yè)的市場價值關(guān)注度越來越高，尤其是市場上的投資人，而企業(yè)自身也需要也需要一些可靠的指標(biāo)來衡量市場業(yè)績，所以要使企業(yè)之間的市場競爭公平，科學(xué)準(zhǔn)確的權(quán)衡企業(yè)價值是不可或缺的。股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流模型股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流定義股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流可以理解為股東可以自由的任意的支配的現(xiàn)金流量，說簡單一點就是扣除了經(jīng)營費用、償還債務(wù)資本對應(yīng)的本金和利息和為保持預(yù)定的現(xiàn)金流增長所需要的所有的資本性支出厚的現(xiàn)金流量。股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流公式根據(jù)股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流量的概念，股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流公式為：FCFE=NI??E+OCI其中：股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流=凈利潤-股東權(quán)益的凈增加+其他綜合收益估值模型股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流模型（FCFE模型）本文最重要的估值模型是股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)模型（FCFE模型）,這一模型對于銀行的比較適合，因為銀行的其主營業(yè)務(wù)就是存款與貸款。它與自由現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)模型（FCFF模型）最大的區(qū)別就是FCFF是公司股權(quán)擁有者可分配的最大自由現(xiàn)金額，最終計算的是公司的內(nèi)在價值。而FCFE是公司股東及債權(quán)人可供分配的最大自由現(xiàn)金額，最終計算的是公司價值中體現(xiàn)給股東的價值，計算公式為：連續(xù)價值（CV）連續(xù)價值是指在持續(xù)經(jīng)營條件下公司的價值，計算公式如下：其中，g：連續(xù)價值期內(nèi)凈回報增長率一般考慮為取近幾年GDP增長率的平均值4.81%估計資本成本（CAPM）股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流通常用權(quán)益資本成本來折現(xiàn)，在此，我采用資本資產(chǎn)定價模型法來估算其權(quán)益資本成本。計算公式為：E()=+(()?)其中，為無風(fēng)險報酬率,E()為市場收益率。估值的步驟要預(yù)測銀行的股權(quán)現(xiàn)金流的價值，就要先整合其歷史績效和財務(wù)報表。通過分析歷史績效預(yù)測和財務(wù)報表的處理對未來相關(guān)信息以獲得對銀行未來發(fā)展的認識。為了能較為準(zhǔn)確的評估一個銀行的歷史績效，就有必要對銀行的財務(wù)報表進行整理重組和提煉，在報表以及腳注等關(guān)鍵處中挖掘信息，并分析理解形成這些財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)的原因以及驅(qū)動因素，再運用合理的方法結(jié)合相關(guān)信息對未知的信息做出假設(shè)，為我們預(yù)測銀行未來的資產(chǎn)負債表和利潤表提供較為合理的依據(jù)，進而有利于我們預(yù)測銀行未來的股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流，更好的對銀行的價值進行評估。中國工商銀行所在行業(yè)里的基本情況工商銀行的相關(guān)信息中國工商銀行成立于1984年，是國家級單位，中央管理的大型銀行，2000年2月入選全球五百強品牌榜單，2020年9月入選中國企業(yè)五百強名單，排名第五。財務(wù)簡介截至2020年末，工商銀行總資產(chǎn)達到301094.36億元，較2019年末增長8.7%。同時，總資產(chǎn)年均增長率為8.02%。圖1工商銀行2014-2020年資產(chǎn)增長值數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報從圖一可以看出工商銀行總體呈現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)增長趨勢是可以值得信賴的選擇。圖22020年工行與其余三大銀行資產(chǎn)總額增長率數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報工商銀行年報一、每股指標(biāo)基本每股收益（元/股）0.86(元)0.64(元)0.42(元)0.24(元)稀釋每股收益（元/股）0.86(元)0.64(元)0.42(元)0.24(元)每股收益_期末股本攤薄（元/股）0.89(元)0.64(元)0.42(元)0.24(元)每股收益_TTM（元/股）0.89(元)0.81(元)0.82(元)0.88(元)每股凈資產(chǎn)（元/股）7.48(元)7.24(元)7.08(元)7.18(元)每股營業(yè)總收入（元/股）2.48(元)1.87(元)1.26(元)0.64(元)每股營業(yè)收入（元/股）2.48(元)1.87(元)1.26(元)0.64(元)每股營業(yè)收入_TTM（元/股）2.48(元)2.45(元)2.42(元)2.38(元)每股營業(yè)利潤（元/股）1.10(元)0.80(元)0.53(元)0.30(元)每股資本公積金（元/股）0.42(元)0.42(元)0.42(元)0.42(元)每股盈余公積（元/股）0.91(元)0.82(元)0.82(元)0.82(元)每股公積金（元/股）1.32(元)1.24(元)1.24(元)1.24(元)每股未分配利潤（元/股）4.24(元)4.20(元)3.99(元)4.08(元)每股留存收益（元/股）5.14(元)5.02(元)4.81(元)4.90(元)每股經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額（元/股）4.37(元)5.67(元)5.26(元)5.47(元)每股經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額_TTM（元/股）4.37(元)3.63(元)4.06(元)3.89(元)每股現(xiàn)金流量凈額（元/股）0.96(元)2.71(元)3.44(元)4.46(元)每股現(xiàn)金流量凈額_TTM（元/股）0.96(元)-0.07(元)1.22(元)2.08(元)二、盈利能力凈資產(chǎn)收益率_平均,計算值（%）11.348.345.53.11凈資產(chǎn)收益率_加權(quán),公布值（%）11.958.745.853.36凈資產(chǎn)收益率_攤薄,公布值（%）10.928.155.453.06凈資產(chǎn)收益率_扣除,攤?。?）10.868.115.433.04凈資產(chǎn)收益率_扣除,加權(quán)（%）11.88--5.83--凈資產(chǎn)收益率_TTM（%）10.9210.3110.7311.39總資產(chǎn)凈利率（%）10.720.470.27總資產(chǎn)凈利率_TTM（%）0.950.870.890.98銷售凈利率（%）35.9934.5833.437.45銷售凈利率_TTM（%）35.9933.2734.237.28凈利潤／營業(yè)總收入（%）35.9934.5833.437.45凈利潤／營業(yè)總收入_TTM（%）35.9933.2734.237.28營業(yè)利潤／營業(yè)總收入（%）44.3442.6242.1847.07營業(yè)利潤／營業(yè)總收入_TTM（%）44.3441.4343.0746.56資產(chǎn)減值損失／營業(yè)總收入（%）22.962727.9826.21資產(chǎn)減值損失／營業(yè)總收入_TTM（%）22.9625.2723.8421.27歸屬母公司凈利潤（萬元）3159060022867500148790008449400扣除非經(jīng)常性損益后的凈利潤（萬元）3140970022766900148164008410900營業(yè)利潤率（%）44.3442.6242.1847.07三、償債能力產(chǎn)權(quán)比率（%）1046.071086.071105.51054.36歸屬母公司股東的權(quán)益／負債合計（%）9.519.168.999.43有形凈值債務(wù)率（%）1077.061118.551138.661082.32四、成長能力基本每股收益同比增長（%）0.00(元)9.86(元)10.64(元)4.35(元)稀釋每股收益同比增長（%）0.00(元)9.86(元)10.64(元)4.35(元)營業(yè)收入同比增長（%）3.182.91.25-3.62營業(yè)利潤同比增長（%）0.21-9.1-9.473.63利潤總額同比增長（%）0.09-9.27-9.493.43凈利潤同比增長（%）1.38-8.91-11.22.81歸屬母公司股東的凈利潤同比增長（%）1.18-9.15-11.43.04歸屬母公司股東的凈利潤(扣除)同比增長（%）1.16-9.12-11.353.16經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額同比增長（%）223.6767.22106.5286.54每股經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額同比增長（%）223.67(元)67.22(元)106.52(元)86.54(元)凈資產(chǎn)收益率(攤薄)同比增長（%）-6.43-14.03-21.7-10凈資產(chǎn)同比增長（%）8.125.713.1614.51總資產(chǎn)同比增長（%）10.7510.0110.419.74每股凈資產(chǎn)相對年初增長率（%）7.93(元)4.47(元)2.16(元)3.60(元)歸屬母公司股東的權(quán)益相對年初增長率（%）8.124.862.043.28資產(chǎn)總計相對年初增長率（%）10.7511.179.976.59可持續(xù)增長率（%）8.318.65.63.18五、營運能力股東權(quán)益周轉(zhuǎn)率（次）0.320.240.170.08總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率（次）0.030.020.010.01通過上述表格不難看出盈利能力中的主要指標(biāo)凈利率總體呈增長趨勢，凈資產(chǎn)收益率也呈現(xiàn)出增長趨勢說明了公司盈利能力正在增長。而對于償債能力通過產(chǎn)權(quán)比率、歸屬母公司股東權(quán)益/負債合計、有形凈債務(wù)率數(shù)據(jù)幾年變化不大較為穩(wěn)定說明了公司經(jīng)營風(fēng)險較小償債能力較好。對于成長能力可以看到表格選取的指標(biāo)全部都呈現(xiàn)出增長趨勢，可持續(xù)增長率增長穩(wěn)定說明了工行發(fā)展能力較好，是一支潛力股，對于營運能力來說股東權(quán)一周轉(zhuǎn)率金和總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率都在提高說明公司所有者權(quán)益獲利能力增加和資金周轉(zhuǎn)快整體營運能力上升。綜上工行在盈利能力、成長能力、成長能力和營運能力方面都表現(xiàn)良好值得被客戶選擇。工商銀行的估值過去股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流分析預(yù)測未來的利潤表預(yù)測工商銀行的存款與貸款商行2014201520162017201820192020商行存款142015150241157816172355185605206469221782全國存款1043874113864513570221505864164104417752261913462數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報20212022202320242025全國存款（億）250,455.61266,307.91291,821.95320,951.29348,310.61數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報項目2014201520162017201820192020活期存款公司客戶3,967,3754,026,3744,413,3055,156,7455,939,5776,287,8256,602,411增長率1.49%9.61%16.85%15.18%5.86%5.00%個人客戶2,964,0123,115,1873,344,2163,655,8503,753,3893,864,2124,256,757增長率5.10%7.35%9.32%2.67%2.95%10.16%定期存款公司客戶3,206,9673,601,2103,645,9063,865,5704,124,2254,647,6014,870,167增長率12.29%1.24%6.02%6.69%12.69%4.79%個人客戶3,841,9873,950,5644,134,5254,321,0564,455,0635,361,6955,983,397長率2.83%4.66%4.51%3.10%20.35%11.60%其他221,187330,766243,721236,366288,279268,855234,732增長率49.54%26.32%3.02%21.96%6.74%12.69%數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報20212022202320243202523,695,80725,683,39528,041,95330,464,70833,118,252數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報2014201520162017201820192020對公貸款和墊款6,718,9447,427,4187,827,4938,204,2918,612,3688,708,1679,238,606個人貸款和墊款2,685,9873,007,9593,471,5394,108,4404,843,0495,515,5386,241,876合計9,404,93110,435,37711,299,03212,312,73113,455,41714,223,70515,480,482對公貸款權(quán)重71.44%71.18%69.28%66.63%64.01%61.22%59.68%個人貸款權(quán)重28.56%28.82%30.72%33.37%35.99%38.78%40.32%存款總額14,201,52815,024,10115,781,67317,235,58718,560,53320,646,92822,178,290貸款總額9,169,44610,184,21511,026,47612,033,20013,125,40114,211,77715,469,899存貸比64.57%67.79%69.87%69.82%70.72%68.83%69.75%預(yù)測未來工商銀行貸款總額保持在存款總額的69.75%數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報未來預(yù)測20212022202320242025吸收存款24,370,68426,157,09328,612,07431,279,91933,974,657發(fā)放貸款和墊款16,998,55218,244,57219,956,92221,817,74323,697,323對公貸款和墊款11,239,03312,062,87213,195,03614,425,36615,668,099個人貸款和墊款5,759,5196,181,7016,761,8867,392,3778,029,224數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報項目2014201520162017201820192020存款總額14,201,52815,024,10115,781,67317,235,58718,560,53320,646,92818,542,861存放中央銀行款項合計3,253,6603,473,3272,991,6193,290,2703,548,9963,313,7483,251,450存款準(zhǔn)備金率22.91%23.12%18.96%19.09%19.12%16.05%17.53%數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報項目20212022202320242025存款總額24,370,68426,157,09328,612,07431,279,91933,974,657存放中央銀行款項合計4,272,1814,585,3385,015,6975,483,3705,955,757數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報營業(yè)收入的預(yù)測2014201520162017201820192020利息收入740,331816,268834,340744,943800,662884,653968,490存款總額14,201,52815,024,10115,781,67317,235,58718,560,53320,646,92818,542,8615.21%5.43%5.29%4.32%4.31%4.28%5.22%利息支出(310,619.00)(338,857.00)(343,139.00)(295,762.00)(310,867.00)(335,037.00)(386,234.00)貸款總額9,169,44610,184,21511,026,47612,033,20013,125,40114,211,77715,469,899-3.39%-3.33%-3.11%-2.46%-2.37%-2.36%-2.50%利息凈收入429,712477,411491,201449,181489,795549,616582,256數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報20212022202320242025利息收入1,272,8761,366,1801,494,4031,633,7441,774,490存款總額24,370,68426,157,09328,612,07431,279,91933,974,657利息支出(424,399.59)(455,509)(498,261)(544,719)(591,647)貸款總額16,998,55218,244,57219,956,92221,817,74323,697,323利息凈收入848,476910,671996,1421,089,0251,182,843數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報非主營業(yè)務(wù)的收入手續(xù)費和傭金收入項目/人民幣百萬元20212022202320242025手續(xù)費及傭金收入161,774.52158,797.87154,145.09147,948.46140,388.29增長率-0.75%-1.84%-2.93%-4.02%-5.11%手續(xù)費及傭金支出(11364.96)(8688.51)(6187.96)(4083.43)(2481.09)增長率-18.32%-23.55%-28.78%-34.01%-39.24%手續(xù)費及傭金凈收入150,409.57150,109.36147,957.14143,865.03137,907.20數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報百萬元20212022202320242025營業(yè)收入1,034,2041,096,8431,181,3261,271,3471,360,460利息凈收入848,476910,671996,1421,089,0251182843.15利息收入1,272,8761,366,1801,494,403.021,633,744.021774489.66利息支出(424,400)(455,509)(498,260.63)(544,719.41)-591646.52手續(xù)費及傭金收入161,775158,798154,145.09147,948.46140388.295手續(xù)費及傭金支出(11,365)(8,689)(6,187.96)(4,083.43)-2481.0932手續(xù)費及傭金凈收入150,410150,109147,957143,865137,907投資收益14,65315,72717,20318,80720,427公允價值變動損益3,1773,4103,729.864,077.644428.92346匯兌收益(5255)(5744)(6217)(6752)(7282)其他業(yè)務(wù)收入25,92126,08026,24126,40326,565數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報營業(yè)支出預(yù)測20212022202320242025營業(yè)支出(578,280)(619,307)(666,894)(711,794)(750,744)稅金及附加(9,515)(10,091)(10,868.20)(11,696.40)12516.236業(yè)務(wù)及管理費(253,419)(268,768)(289,469.57)(311,528.17)333364.22資產(chǎn)減值損失(224,210)(240,645)(263,231.08)(287,775.25)312566.84其他業(yè)務(wù)成本(91,135)(99,802)(103,325.48)(100,794.00)（92297.07）數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報利潤表預(yù)測三、營業(yè)利潤455,925477,536514,432559,554609,716669,356735,925加：營業(yè)外收入2,8613,0353,268.453,517.523764.070974039.774134340.9591減：營業(yè)外支出(1,638)(1,754)(1,889.30)(2,016.50)（2126.846）（2240.1901）（2359.995）四、利潤總額稅前利潤457,148478,817515,811561,055611,353671,155737,906減：所得稅費用(91,430)(95,763)(103,162.21)(112,210.93)（122270.67）（134231.04）（147581.1）五、凈利潤365,718383,05312,649448,844489,083536,924590,324歸屬于母公司364,402381,674411,163.32447,227.89487321.966534991.251588199.3少數(shù)股東1,3171,3791,4861,6161,7611,9332,125數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報預(yù)測未來資產(chǎn)負債表項目/百萬元20212022202320242025資產(chǎn)：現(xiàn)金及存放中央銀行款項4,272,1814,585,3385,015,6975,483,3705,955,757存放同業(yè)及其他金融機構(gòu)款項481,970481,970481,970481,970481,970貴金屬260,766279,881306,149334,695363,529拆出資金707,526707,526707,526707,526707,526以公允價值計量且其變動計入當(dāng)期損益的金融資產(chǎn)1,057,6881,135,2181,241,7641,357,5481,474,500衍生金融資產(chǎn)54,18158,15363,61169,54275,533買入返售金融資產(chǎn)713,219765,499837,346915,421994,284發(fā)放貸款及墊款16,998,55218,244,57219,956,92221,817,74323,697,323可供出售金融資產(chǎn)1,516,4691,692,4311,888,8112,107,9772,352,574持有至到期投資4,813,5405,017,5005,221,4615,425,4225,629,382應(yīng)收款項類投資長期股權(quán)投資172,949172,949172,949172,949172,949固定資產(chǎn)143,237151,913163,614176,082188,424無形資產(chǎn)31,75033,67336,26739,03041,766遞延所得稅資產(chǎn)49,44451,78855,78960,68366,123其他資產(chǎn)49,44451,78855,78960,68366,123資產(chǎn)總計31,322,91833,430,20036,205,66439,210,64142,267,764負債：同業(yè)及其他金融機構(gòu)存放款項1,742,7561,742,7561,742,7561,742,7561,742,756拆入資金419,375419,375419,375419,375419,375新拆入1,085,4911,015,640894,059725,929561,470以公允價值計量且其變動計入當(dāng)期損益的金融負債156,483173,248193,568212,982201,987衍生金融負債63,09778,48597,625121,434151,049賣出回購金融資產(chǎn)328,248353,293380,249409,262440,489客戶存款24,370,68426,157,09328,612,07431,279,91933,974,657應(yīng)付職工薪酬45,87748,65652,40456,39760,350應(yīng)交稅費125,804131,767141,947154,398168,240已發(fā)行債務(wù)證券708,971845,0161,007,1681,200,4361,430,790其他負債585,654621,126668,967719,945770,408負債合計29,632,43931,586,45434,210,19337,042,83239,921,570股東權(quán)益：股本356,407356,407356,407356,407356,407其他權(quán)益工具79,37579,37579,37579,37579,375資本公積153,316153,316153,316153,316153,316其他綜合收益(13,809)(15,782)(15,439)(17,730)(17,249)盈余公積287,353287,353287,353287,353287,353一般風(fēng)險準(zhǔn)備336,352364,023395,325426,390461,876未分配利潤1,516,9481,772,7262,048,2672,347,9762,674,554歸屬于母公司所有者權(quán)益合計1,690,4791,843,7461,995,4702,167,8092,346,193少數(shù)股東權(quán)益股東權(quán)益合計1,690,4791,843,7461,995,4702,167,8092,346,193負債及股東權(quán)益總計31,322,91833,430,20036,205,66439,210,64142,267,764數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報20132014201520162017可供出售金融資產(chǎn)916,514.001,090,116.001,299,068.001,608,839.001,358,802.00增長率18.94%19.17%23.85%-15.54%持有至到期投資20132014201520162017持有至到期投資賬面價值2,624,378.002,548,977.002,813,091.002,876,081.003,439,471.00增長率-2.87%10.36%2.24%19.59%數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報2014201520162017201820192020未分配利潤491,485619,054739,133882,6981,025,1151,123,8071,272,745凈利潤253,822264,228263,265262,276270,592283,179297,325分配股利、利潤支付的現(xiàn)金83,56591,96093,35787,70087,94390,32993,840分紅占凈利潤比重32.92%34.80%35.46%33.44%32.50%31.90%31.56%平均33.23%數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報20212022202320242025未分配利潤1,516,9481,772,7262,048,2672,347,9762,674,554凈利潤365,718383,053412,649448,844489,083分配股利、利潤支付的現(xiàn)金121,515127,275137,109149,135162,505數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報估算資本成本無風(fēng)險收益率數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報市場收益率1991259.61992724.6179.12%1993984.9335.93%1994683.59-30.60%19991434.97109.92%20002070.6144.30%20011747.99-15.58%20021334.18-23.67%20031397.224.72%20041340.77-4.04%20051099.26-18.01%20062099.2990.97%20074871.78132.07%20081871.16-61.59%20093195.370.77%20102820.18-11.74%20112333.41-17.26%20131980.12-15.14%20142220.512.14%20152682.8320.82%20163445.428.42%20173250.03-5.67%20183317.192.07%20132588.19-21.98%20202871.9810.96%幾何平均8.01%數(shù)據(jù)來源：工商銀行年報β的求取ICBC月收益率上證月收益率收盤收盤5.092891.565.171.57%2860.08-1.09%5.15-0.39%2750.3-3.84%5.32.91%2880.34.73%5.727.92%2976.533.34%5.882.80%3050.122.47%5.79-1.53%2871.98-5.84%5.912.07%2929.061.99%5.53-6.43%2905.19-0.81%5.39-2.53%2886.24-0.65%5.644.64%2932.511.60%5.894.43%2978.881.58%5.61-4.75%2898.7-2.69%5.813.57%3078.346.20%5.57-4.13%3090.760.40%5.753.23%2940.95-4.85%5.66-1.57%2584.57-12.12%5.29-6.54%2493.9-3.51%5.330.76%2588.193.78%5.635.63%2602.780.56%5.772.49%2821.358.40%5.44-5.72%2725.25-3.41%5.653.86%2876.45.55%5.32-5.84%2847.42-1.01%5.666.39%3095.478.71%66.01%3082.23-0.43%6.091.50%3168.92.81%6.679.52%3259.412.86%7.4812.14%3480.836.79%6.2-17.11%3307.17-4.99%5.92-4.52%3317.190.30%6.13.04%3393.342.30%6-1.64%3348.94-1.31%5.9-1.67%3360.810.35%5.51-6.61%3273.03-2.61%5.25-4.72%3192.43-2.46%5.250.00%3117.18-2.36%4.88-7.05%3154.661.20%4.84-0.82%3222.512.15%4.69-3.10%3241.730.60%4.6-1.92%3159.17-2.55%4.41-4.13%3103.64-1.76%4.522.49%3250.034.72%4.43-1.99%3100.49-4.60%4.430.00%3004.7-3.09%4.532.26%3085.492.69%4.3-5.08%2979.34-3.44%4.443.2