00

1125Q225Q214IMF4-562

25Q2325Q2/

234Miu

Miu

40%2Canda

GooseQ3Q4Hermès

Kering

Prada325H1LVMHPrada

1Gucci

BV

Dior

Miumiu2Aspirational

Customer20325Q2

LystMiu

Miu5Q1Burberry

Birkenstock1.8%

125Burberry

Tapestry-2.3%20pct

59pctPE

192

2520125Q24-56IMF420257

20254IMF20252025年真實(shí)GDP增速預(yù)測

2024-10

2025-01

2025-04

2025-077IMF2025世界3.2%1.8%3.3%1.9%2.7%1.0%1.1%4.2%4.6%6.5%2.5%3.6%2.8%1.4%1.8%0.8%0.6%3.7%4.0%6.2%2.0%3.0%3.0%1.5%1.9%1.0%0.7%4.1%4.8%6.4%2.2%3.4%發(fā)達(dá)國家25Q2美國

2.2%歐元區(qū)

1.2%日本

1.1%4.2%Q1Q3

SpendTrend9.1%2025

4-5發(fā)展中國家6中國

4.5%印度

6.5%5拉美及加勒比海地區(qū)中東及中亞2.5%3.9%4-56北美同店零售單月同比同比增速2024-06

2024-07

2024-08

2024-09

2024-10

2024-11

2024-12

2025-01

2025-02

2025-03

2025-04

2025-05

2025-06-0.4%-1.2%-1.4%-0.8%-8.2%-14.0%1.9%-1.3%-5.6%-14.0%-0.4%-1.0%-3.9%-14.0%1.0%-2.3%-4.2%-13.5%-0.4%0.7%6.8%1.7%0.4%-7.1%-0.7%-2.4%0.5%2.8%-7.4%-3.0%4.1%0.8%-9.5%-5.4%2.8%-1.0%-6.1%-11.4%3.3%-0.5%-5.7%-10.4%1.6%-0.4%-9.1%-14.0%整體零售去年同期基數(shù)同比增速-14.0%-14.5%-13.0%-9.0%-11.0%-10.6%奢侈品店去年同期基數(shù)3IMF

Bloomberg0125Q2

2025

1-60.1%25Q21.2%Q14149.2%

5-6Q2

25Q2<200

200-500500-3000>300025Q225Q2瑞士鐘表業(yè)出口金額中國

美國

日本6.1%-17.4%

-25.3%

-10.5%

-8.4%瑞士腕表出口金額分地區(qū)6月增速5月增速全球-5.6%-9.5%-7.2%-0.1%1.5%歐洲分價(jià)位（瑞郎）6月增速<200

200-500

500-3000

>3000-10.7%

-24.2%

16.0%

-9.2%-17.6%

-11.0%

-1.1%5月增速-9.4%

-14.3%0.2%

-11.3%24年6月增速基數(shù)1-6月累計(jì)增速1-5月累計(jì)增速-36.5%-18.7%

20.4%-23.1%

28.5%-21.6%-20.7%6.5%13.2%-3.2%-1.4%7.7%-4.1%-0.4%-0.3%-1.1%4.0%24年6月增速基數(shù)1-6月累計(jì)增速1-5月累計(jì)增速-6.4%

-23.1%

-31.1%

-0.3%-1.4%

-11.3%-0.3%0.3%2.4%0.8%-8.7%-8.3%-9.3%-3.3%-18.8%

1.0%-7.4%7.0%24年1-6月累計(jì)增速基數(shù)

-3.3%3.6%9.0%24年1-6月累計(jì)增速基數(shù)

-5.6%Q1同比增速Q(mào)2同比增速0.6%1.2%2.9%Q1同比增速Q(mào)2同比增速0.8%0.3%0.3%-13.7%

33.2%-5.4%-3.1%-3.2%

-13.3%4Wind011-6RPK

1-6RPK1-60.7%

25

4-5Q1

25Q22024/25Q1/25

4-51.1%/0.0%/10.9%4-5人數(shù)（人）中國赴日本旅游

665617

776520

746010

652405

582919

546339

604293

980520

722924

661817

765100

789900Yoy

219.1%

147.8%

104.8%

100.3%

127.4%

111.5%

93.4%

135.7%

57.3%

46.2%

43.4%

44.8%中國赴美國旅游

129353

167248

218023

164433

112902

100578

126485

198537

92018

115151

99382

1315282024-06

2024-07

2024-08

2024-09

2024-10

2024-11

2024-12

2025-01

2025-02

2025-03

2025-04

2025-052024Q14-5月187.9%

78.1%

44.1%50.8%9.1%1.1%8.7%-2.0%0.0%-1.2%10.9%Yoy美國游客入境Yoy49.7%

51.3%

25.3%

38.2%

33.4%

30.6%

23.3%

29.3%

-11.1%

-0.8%0.1%59581.3%338317.8%-2.2%562913.3%382668886.9%4503-6.3%75147.8%4701-1.5%61516.9%3804-4.0%62004.3%31081.0%56427.3%21557.7%64579.5%25916.1%56104.7%20659.9%4636-1.9%20571.6%5410-8.1%2522法國游客入境yoy38345.4%-2.8%-8.1%5Bloomberg

IATA

TSA0125Q2/

25Q20.2%/5.3%/5.1%2.4%

25Q2/4.9%/7.1%25Q2/25Q2/歐元兌日元?dú)W元兌美元（右軸）歐元兌人民幣（右軸）人民幣兌美元人民幣兌歐元人民幣兌日元（右軸）20018016014012010080604020098765432100.160.140.120.100.080.060.040.020.00222221212020191918186Bloomberg

Wind0225Q2

25Q21.8%HermèsCanada

Goose

BurberryKering

17.5%-5.8%Prada-3.2%Moncler-1.9%Kering-MonclerLVMHPrada

25H125Q2Canada

Goose

25Q2-47.8%收入偏離一致預(yù)期公司股票代碼MC.PARMS.PA

當(dāng)年12/31KER.PA

當(dāng)年12/311913.HK

當(dāng)年12/31MONC.BSI

當(dāng)年12/31財(cái)年截至

貨幣單位20190.1%0.1%-0.4%0.4%0.4%1.2%0.5%-0.3%0.2%2020-0.8%2.0%-1.9%-1.4%3.6%5.7%0.3%1.1%0.7%20213.2%0.2%3.5%0.0%2.9%0.0%0.3%0.9%0.6%20220.6%1.3%-1.0%4.5%2.7%2.9%0.3%-0.2%0.9%20230.3%0.4%-0.1%1.1%1.9%3.2%0.9%-0.6%0.6%24Q1-2.3%2.6%0.5%1.6%3.6%13.1%-1.6%-1.1%1.1%24Q2-2.0%1.4%-3.4%5.5%-0.1%2.3%-6.4%1.1%0.5%24Q3-4.9%0.7%-4.4%2.0%-1.1%3.4%3.3%2.3%1.3%24Q42.1%6.0%3.5%-6.0%8.1%-2.1%10.7%4.1%3.8%25Q125Q2LVMHHermèsKeringPrada當(dāng)年12/31歐元?dú)W元?dú)W元?dú)W元?dú)W元-3.9%-0.7%-5.0%1.3%0.7%9.2%1.5%3.6%1.0%-0.4%-0.5%-1.8%-3.2%-1.9%17.5%0.2%-MonclerCanada

goose

GOOS.N

次年3/31

加拿大元BurberryTapestry中位數(shù)BRBY.LTPR.N次年3/31當(dāng)年6/30英鎊美元-0.5%歸母凈利潤偏離一致預(yù)期公司股票代碼MC.PARMS.PA

當(dāng)年12/31KER.PA

當(dāng)年12/311913.HK

當(dāng)年12/31MONC.BSI

當(dāng)年12/31財(cái)年截至

貨幣單位2019-3.0%-0.1%-8.5%0.3%2020202113.7%5.4%2022-3.5%5.7%2023-3.2%7.0%-5.7%2.7%2.7%-4.2%-7.1%-0.6%-1.9%24Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q2LVMHHermèsKeringPrada當(dāng)年12/31歐元?dú)W元?dú)W元?dú)W元?dú)W元11.6%23.6%14.7%39.6%51.0%28.9%43.1%-2.2%-17.0%-0.002%2.9%-5.9%7.8%7.6%3.4%-39.6%3.0%1.2%17.2%-5.8%2.9%-0.2%16.5%2.6%-6.9%2.3%Moncler1.2%4.5%9.3%Canada

goose

GOOS.N

次年3/31

加拿大元-0.5%-52.0%-3.1%

1736.9%

-1.8%-1.8%

34.3%

3.0%-12.9%3.4%-28.3%5.0%-4.1%-0.6%-31.6%3.6%255.7%-7.1%16.8%-47.8%BurberryTapestry中位數(shù)BRBY.LTPR.N次年3/31當(dāng)年6/30英鎊美元----3.1%-17.5%-10.2%3.0%H1

Q3

Q4-18.0%6.7%-2.9%1.2%BurberryQ1

Q2H27Bloomberg

Wind2019-20250225Q2

25Q2-3.8%25Q1

+2.7%5.5%25Q2CanadaGoose21.5%

DTCHermèsBurberryQ15.6%

Prada

+2.7%LVMH

-7.1%Kering

-17.9%25Q2收入（億元）公司股票代碼財(cái)年截至

貨幣單位20192020446.563.9131.024.214.49.02021642.289.8176.533.720.511.028.357.52022791.8116.0203.542.02023861.5134.3195.747.324Q1206.938.145.011.98.224Q2209.837.045.113.64.124Q3190.837.037.912.86.424Q4239.339.643.914.812.46.125Q1203.141.338.813.48.325Q2195.039.137.014.04.0LVMHHermèsKeringPradaMC.PARMS.PAKER.PA1913.HK當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31歐元536.768.8158.832.316.39.6歐元?dú)W元?dú)W元MonclerMONC.BSI

當(dāng)年12/31歐元26.029.8Canada

goose

GOOS.N次年3/31

加拿大元12.213.33.60.92.73.81.1BurberryTapestryBRBY.LTPR.N次年3/31當(dāng)年6/30英鎊美元26.360.323.449.631.129.85.74.64.36.65.34.366.866.614.815.915.122.015.8收入同比增速公司股票代碼MC.PARMS.PAKER.PA1913.HK財(cái)年截至

貨幣單位201914.6%15.4%16.2%2.7%20202021202220238.8%24Q1-1.6%12.6%-11.3%11.5%12.6%23.4%-16.7%-1.8%4.9%24Q2-1.1%11.5%-10.8%16.7%0.5%24Q3-4.4%10.1%-15.2%15.2%-5.1%-6.3%-20.2%-0.4%-4.8%24Q4-0.1%17.8%-11.6%7.1%25Q1-1.9%8.5%25Q2-7.1%5.6%LVMHHermèsKeringPrada當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31歐元?dú)W元?dú)W元?dú)W元?dú)W元-16.8%-7.2%43.8%40.6%34.7%38.9%42.0%21.5%20.6%15.8%36.8%23.3%29.2%15.3%24.8%27.2%10.8%9.9%15.7%-3.9%12.5%14.7%9.6%-17.5%-24.9%-11.5%-5.7%-13.8%13.0%1.3%-17.9%2.7%MonclerCanada

goose

GOOS.NMONC.BSI

當(dāng)年12/3114.6%5.5%-3.8%21.5%-5.5%次年3/31

加拿大元

15.4%3.2%-2.2%-6.7%5.3%4.0%BurberryTapestryBRBY.LTPR.N次年3/31當(dāng)年6/30英鎊美元-3.2%2.5%-11.0%-17.7%-14.2%-4.0%-0.4%9.2%-22.2%-1.8%-0.3%-6.7%6.9%16.3%19.8%中位數(shù)14.6%2.6%2.7%-3.8%Burberry8Bloomberg

Wind2019-20250225Q225Q2收入同比增速（貨幣中性口徑）LVMHHermès20196%12%7%2020-13%-21%0%-17%-15%-18%-15%-28%-24%-41%-35%202144%57%76%103%43%37%51%27%36%10%35%25%30%32%37%45%33%29%26%25%7%202215%32%4%22%12%7%20234%21%-18%0%24Q12%12%-11%5%14%22%-12%2%15%-9%18%15%3%-3%-6%14%-19%16%26%33%-17%32%25%16%46%24Q22%13%-11%9%-1%2%-23%4%18%-8%19%6%-11%-16%-14%6%-25%8%6%25%-23%57%20%27%65%24Q30%13%-15%10%-6%-5%-18%2%17%-11%18%-3%-17%-10%-16%1%24Q43%22%-9%11%5%0%4%4%17%-8%16%3%-4%-2%-10%9%-24%16%11%-2%-9%8%22%-6%31%25Q1-3%11%-13%10%-2%9%25Q20%12%-10%12%5%44%4%-1%9%-17%9%-8%-1%1%-6%5%-19%10%0%

25Q25%25Q1Kering美國/美洲/北美PradaMoncler1%6%25Q112%11%-25%-7%11%8%-1%-7%-16%13%20%-1%14%14%-12%2%18%19%10%24%30%44%7%Canada

gooseBurberryLVMH-4%35%22%56%63%29%15%22%0%22%-7%-2%14%10%-1%31%20%25%31%-4%2%Hermès13%-13%14%-1%-18%-4%-11%1%-25%10%6%12%-9%-1%17%-11%18%

25Q2Prada

MonclerLVMH

KeringKeringPrada14%6%歐洲/西歐/EMEIA/EMEAMonclerCanada

gooseBurberryLVMHHermèsKering17%1%14%18%20%-4%3%-35%-4%14%-2%/-30%12%-2%

Canada

GooseDTCLVMH亞洲除日本

PradaMoncler（含日本）Canada

goose（含日本）

21%1%2%Q228%16%-19%-4%-28%-28%3%27%-4%-28%15%-29%4%Q2MonclerBurberry（含日本）LVMH-6%8%8%6%2%-28%20%23%3%29%25%21%16%28%26%23%44%HermèsKering日本Hermès

KeringKeringPradaPrada48%Q120%美國/美洲/北美6%-15%-32%51%30%12%29%-1%5%3%2%4%-5%-3%4%3%-2%-1%5%歐洲/西歐/EMEIA/EMEA10%13%-1%中位數(shù)亞洲除日本日本16%7%2%-24%29%23%0%28%19%27%14%29%6%42%-2%21%-2%15%1%8%0%-12%BurberryMonclerMoncler9Bloomberg

Wind2019-20250225H1

25H1-15.1%Hermès24H2

-11.4%5.2%25H1

Kering-46.0%Prada0.7%6.0%Moncler

-15.1%LVMH

-21.6%25Q2

CanadaGoose61.8%25H1歸母凈利潤（億元）2021

2022120.4

140.8公司股票代碼MC.PARMS.PAKER.PA1913.HK財(cái)年截至

貨幣單位2019202047.013.921.5-0.53.02023151.743.129.86.724Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q2LVMHHermèsKeringPrada當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31歐元71.715.323.12.672.723.78.852.857.0歐元24.531.82.933.736.14.722.42.64.64.622.54.73.91.5歐元?dú)W元3.8MonclerMONC.BSI

當(dāng)年12/31歐元3.63.96.16.11.8Canada

goose

GOOS.N次年3/31

加拿大元1.50.70.90.70.60.11.4-0.81.60.11.91.43.10.32.0-1.3-BurberryTapestryBRBY.LTPR.N次年3/31當(dāng)年6/30英鎊美元1.23.84.04.92.710.913.8-6.4-6.58.38.69.4歸母凈利潤同比增速公司股票代碼MC.PARMS.PAKER.PA1913.HK財(cái)年截至

貨幣單位201912.9%8.8%20202021202217.0%37.7%13.8%58.1%54.2%-23.2%23.7%2.6%20237.7%24Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q2LVMHHermèsKeringPrada當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31當(dāng)年12/31歐元-34.4%

156.0%-14.3%6.4%-21.1%7.2%-21.6%-5.2%歐元-9.3%-6.9%76.5%47.7%28.0%-17.5%44.2%0.9%歐元?dú)W元-37.9%-50.8%25.7%24.3%-78.7%24.5%-1.7%-46.0%24.5%

-121.2%

643.5%0.7%MonclerMONC.BSI

當(dāng)年12/31歐元7.9%5.6%-16.3%-53.7%31.0%34.8%5.4%-15.1%Canada

goose

GOOS.N次年3/31

加拿大元-19.7%

261.3%15.0%38.5%-100.9%-4.3%

-3.7%-11.4%7.0%442.0%

-61.8%-BurberryTapestry中位數(shù)BRBY.LTPR.N次年3/31當(dāng)年6/30英鎊美元-64.1%

208.7%-44.9%9.3%-246.8%61.9%

-201.4%

227.9%-25.3%-28.9%45.8%-15.1%-8.4%-25.3%62.1%20.4%4.3%-4.0%Q1

Q2H1

Q3

Q4H210Bloomberg

Wind2019-20250225H125H1毛利率2021

2022

25H1LVMH2.0pct25Q1

25Q2同比

同比-2.0pct公司股票代碼

財(cái)年截至

2019202020232024

25Q1

25Q2KeringLVMHMC.PA

當(dāng)年12/31

66.2%

64.5%

68.3%

68.4%

68.8%

67.0%RMS.PA

當(dāng)年12/31

69.1%

68.5%

71.3%

70.8%

72.3%

70.3%KER.PA

當(dāng)年12/31

74.1%

72.6%

74.1%

74.7%

76.3%

73.8%1913.HK

當(dāng)年12/31

71.9%

72.0%

75.7%

78.8%

80.4%

79.8%MONC.BSI當(dāng)年12/31

77.7%

75.6%

76.6%

76.4%

77.1%

78.1%66.8%70.7%73.0%80.1%76.9%1.4pctHermèsKeringPrada0.1pct-1.4pct0.3pct0.2pctHermès

Prada

Moncler25Q2Canada

goose1.7pctMoncler

Canada

goose

GOOS.N

次年3/31

61.9%

61.3%

66.8%

67.0%

68.8%

69.9%

71.3%

61.4%

6.2pct

1.7pctHermèsBurberryTapestryBRBY.L

次年3/31

64.8%

70.9%

71.2%

70.6%

67.7%

62.5%TPR.N

當(dāng)年6/30

67.3%

65.3%

71.0%

69.6%

70.8%

73.3%

76.1%凈利率---1.4pct-0.3pct

CanadagooseSG&A438025Q1

25Q2同比

同比-3.1pct900公司股票代碼

財(cái)年截至

201920202021202220232024

25Q1

25Q2MonclerLVMHMC.PA

當(dāng)年12/31

13.4%

10.5%

18.7%

17.8%

17.6%

14.8%RMS.PA

當(dāng)年12/31

22.2%

21.7%

27.2%

29.0%

32.1%

30.3%KER.PA

當(dāng)年12/31

14.5%

16.4%

18.0%

17.8%

15.2%

6.6%1913.HK

當(dāng)年12/31

7.9%

-2.2%

8.7%

11.1%

14.2%

15.4%MONC.BSI當(dāng)年12/31

22.0%

20.9%

19.2%

23.3%

20.5%

20.6%14.3%28.0%6.2%HermèsKeringPrada-3.6pct-3.5pct-0.9pct-2.2pct14.1%12.5%

LVMH

KeringMonclerCanada

goose

GOOS.N

次年3/31

15.8%

7.8%

8.6%

6.0%

4.4%

7.0%

7.0%

-116.1%

5.6pct

-28.2pctBurberryTapestryBRBY.L

次年3/31

4.6%

16.0%

14.0%

15.8%

9.1%

-3.0%TPR.N

當(dāng)年6/30

10.7%

-13.1%

14.5%

12.8%

14.1%

12.2%

12.8%--3-4pct-3.4pct-Q1

Q2H1

Q3

Q4H211Bloomberg

Wind2019-20250225Q2Miu

Miu+40%KeringGucci

YSL25Q2Miu

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YSL收入規(guī)模（億元）

25Q2品牌貨幣單位

2019202063.977.435.320.117.423.414.412.111.59.0202189.897.342.525.425.228.318.215.012.111.03.52022116.0104.949.232.533.030.922.017.414.512.24.32023134.398.749.634.931.829.725.716.514.213.36.524Q138.120.811.58.37.45.77.03.92.83.62.31.124Q237.020.112.58.87.04.63.44.52.90.93.00.824Q337.016.411.78.36.74.35.34.02.82.73.21.024Q439.619.217.110.37.76.611.34.84.26.13.71.125Q141.315.712.98.36.85.37.24.12.43.83.81.125Q239.114.61.0%Q1HermèsGucciCoachPrada歐元?dú)W元美元?dú)W元?dú)W元英鎊歐元?dú)W元美元加元?dú)W元?dú)W元美元?dú)W元68.896.342.726.420.526.316.311.713.79.6

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0.3收入同比增速（貨幣中性口徑）0.1品牌HermèsGucciCoachPradaYves

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Wind2019-20250325Q2LystMiu

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25Q2

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IndexMiu

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16PradaBirkenstock

Lyst25Q2Labubu——25Q1Lyst

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Adidas

Miu

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Prada13Lyst0325Q225Q2公司25Q2全球核心區(qū)域消費(fèi)趨勢變化

LVMH

Kering

Prada

Moncler美國、亞洲（除日本外）市場環(huán)比改善，中國本地需求環(huán)比改善，但同比仍下跌高單，未能抵消中國游客在日消費(fèi)減少，美國地區(qū)改善主要來自香檳與精選零售；日本、歐洲受游客消費(fèi)下滑影響較大。公司認(rèn)為中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)尚需時(shí)間恢復(fù)。Burberry25Q2LVMH4Hermès亞太（除日本）、美洲、中東市場環(huán)比加速，25H1美國雙位數(shù)增長，中國大陸未見改觀；法國環(huán)比雖有降速，但無結(jié)構(gòu)性變化；日本環(huán)比略有降速但仍實(shí)現(xiàn)雙位數(shù)增長，本地客戶忠誠度高。首次進(jìn)店消費(fèi)者通常消費(fèi)飾品、香化、絲巾等入門級產(chǎn)品，公司觀察到此類消費(fèi)有所下滑。公司重視中國市場，尚未看到回暖跡象，中國消費(fèi)者處于觀望狀態(tài)。Hermès

亞太（除日本）、北美環(huán)比略有好轉(zhuǎn)，公司認(rèn)為美國改善與美國股市走強(qiáng)有關(guān)，消費(fèi)者信心與客流量有所改善；西歐、日本受游客消費(fèi)下降影響較大；中國客群消費(fèi)下降20%高段，趨勢與Q1一致。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境仍造成消費(fèi)者信心低下，消費(fèi)者更加挑剔和謹(jǐn)慎，高品質(zhì)產(chǎn)品表現(xiàn)更好。Kering

Hermès

Prada

Moncler美洲零售出色增長，當(dāng)?shù)丶坝慰托枨笸?；日本受去年較高基數(shù)影響，歐洲市場游客消費(fèi)減少（主要是美國游客）；亞太市場趨勢環(huán)比不變，中國環(huán)比略走弱，但無重大變化；公司觀察到近年來進(jìn)取型消費(fèi)者趨勢走弱，高端客群穩(wěn)定。PradaMonclerHermès中國、美國本地需求積極；日本、歐洲等地旅游客流下降導(dǎo)致收入減少；當(dāng)前消費(fèi)者對價(jià)格敏感，高端客群較有韌性。北美與中國市場本季度表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。中國市場抖音與微信直播初嘗效果良好，公司計(jì)劃加大投入、持續(xù)優(yōu)化流程。Canada

gooseBurberry全球旅游景氣度下滑，歐洲等旅游熱門地區(qū)游客消費(fèi)下滑被本地消費(fèi)增長抵消，日本受游客消費(fèi)下滑影響較多。14Transcript03公司經(jīng)營策略梳理

公司希望通過成本管控維持時(shí)裝皮具部門的高利潤率，認(rèn)為當(dāng)前行業(yè)漲價(jià)需要改進(jìn)質(zhì)量或增加功能等明確的理由，Q2價(jià)格基本持平，銷量是主要貢獻(xiàn)。LV品牌希望通過美妝、小皮具等入門品類吸引年輕消費(fèi)者，而非推出廉價(jià)手袋。過去4到5年，LV品牌銷量貢獻(xiàn)增長的1/3，長期來看希望發(fā)揮品牌的內(nèi)生增長動(dòng)力。酒類核心品牌Moet

Hennessy啟動(dòng)增長改革，預(yù)計(jì)26H2看到影響。Canada

Goose

BurberryLVMHSnow

Goose2025年皮具馬具部門目標(biāo)銷量/價(jià)格分別增長6%，收入增長12%；門店數(shù)量保持穩(wěn)定；公司持續(xù)投Hermès

資于產(chǎn)能建設(shè)（未來四年在法國投產(chǎn)四個(gè)皮具工坊）、供應(yīng)鏈保障以及專屬分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò)（門店翻新與擴(kuò)建），以支持品牌的長期發(fā)展勢頭。

HermèsPrada公司嚴(yán)格管控成本費(fèi)用，措施包括1）優(yōu)化門店網(wǎng)絡(luò)，全年門店凈關(guān)80家，超過2月溝通的50家；2）Kering

控制A&P費(fèi)用高單；3）審查一般費(fèi)用，優(yōu)化供應(yīng)鏈。并通過出售物業(yè)資產(chǎn)等去杠桿計(jì)劃嚴(yán)保自由現(xiàn)金流。Gucci正在加快上新速度，當(dāng)前新品比例55%，手袋新品比例62%。

LVMH

Kering

MonclerMonclerQ2Prada品牌市場份額有待提升，零售績效指標(biāo)存在優(yōu)化空間，Prada男裝有提升空間；MiuMiu品牌在大多數(shù)國家的滲透率仍不足，應(yīng)該在皮具上重點(diǎn)突破，尋求在更大的店鋪里銷售更高價(jià)格的產(chǎn)品，25、26年北美市場面積均增長10-12%。對于公司而言優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)是增長，需要在費(fèi)用端持續(xù)投資。Prada25H1同店下滑4.0%，若維持利潤率需同店增長中單，25H2能見度低，不排除全年利潤率受到影響，Moncler

公司正采取一切措施嚴(yán)格控制開支，但也不執(zhí)著于29-30%的EBIT

Margin；今年價(jià)格上漲中單，26年漲幅會收窄。

LVMHCanada

今年春夏宣傳活動(dòng)取得良好效果，春夏產(chǎn)品銷售良好；由Haider操刀的Snow

Goose系列為品牌打goose開對話時(shí)尚的窗口，但體量不大，更多作為心智膠囊系列帶動(dòng)主線。Moncler今年的核心是圍繞永恒英倫奢華重燃品牌熱情，上半年加大品牌投入。夏季圍繞英國夏季傳統(tǒng)展開的營銷活動(dòng)效果良好，推動(dòng)各地環(huán)比均改善。25秋季產(chǎn)品是團(tuán)隊(duì)操刀的全新一季商品，戰(zhàn)略上重塑26HermèsBurberry

外套核心，產(chǎn)品方面以外套和圍巾為核心，輕便夾克成為爆款，格紋裝飾拉鏈設(shè)計(jì)受到好評，重啟了經(jīng)典的騎士印章logo，并在奢華定位下優(yōu)化定價(jià)?；A(chǔ)/進(jìn)階/頂級策略在全系列中落地，各價(jià)位段表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。15Transcript0325Q3Q425Q3Q4

25Q3公司未來展望25Q3中國與日本的基數(shù)效應(yīng)將環(huán)比改善，25Q4將面臨去年同期美國反彈帶來的基數(shù)壓力；預(yù)計(jì)25下半年匯兌仍將產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響；當(dāng)前看26年不確定性仍較高。LVMH25Q425年經(jīng)濟(jì)與地緣政治環(huán)境依然復(fù)雜，但公司有信心保持發(fā)展勢頭，下半年將在美國開設(shè)新店，并擴(kuò)建首爾和上海的門店；預(yù)計(jì)25下半年匯兌仍將產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。26HermèsKeringPradaQ3至今主要地區(qū)趨勢環(huán)比略有改善，部分源于去年同期基數(shù)較低，主要是Gucci改善，YSL與BV趨勢不變；預(yù)計(jì)Q3

BV增速放緩，因?yàn)榛顒?dòng)和產(chǎn)品推出計(jì)劃在Q4；預(yù)計(jì)下半年毛利率與上半年相當(dāng)；新CEO

Luca

de

Meo

9月上任，預(yù)計(jì)26年與市場溝通計(jì)劃。Canada

Goose

25Q2FY26HermèsPrada

25當(dāng)前80%毛利率是應(yīng)該且可持續(xù)的；預(yù)計(jì)Q3全球旅游業(yè)仍將走弱；公司認(rèn)為25年Q2同期比較壓力最大，奢侈品行業(yè)已經(jīng)歷20年穩(wěn)定增長而面臨重新洗牌，疊加全球旅游業(yè)周期性下行與匯兌壓力，目前艱難時(shí)期或許已經(jīng)過去，但仍有待觀察。Moncler

Q2與Q3奢侈品行業(yè)受旅游業(yè)影響較多，Q4主要為本地需求，目前觀察Q3整體趨勢仍偏弱。Canada

FY26Q2至今延續(xù)Q1良好趨勢，公司對于即將到來的旺季和FY26全年業(yè)績有信心。公司品牌相goose對較小，有巨大的發(fā)展空間。FY26以鞏固轉(zhuǎn)型成果、恢復(fù)品牌吸引力為核心，定位為穩(wěn)定之年，通過成本控制、產(chǎn)品優(yōu)化和Burberry

渠道調(diào)整為長期增長鋪路。長期目標(biāo)恢復(fù)FY23歷史峰值水平——收入

30

億英鎊、毛利率

70%、15-17%營業(yè)利潤率。16Transcript04Hermès

Miumiu

19-24YSLMiumiu

Coach5Hermès

Moncler

Prada

Miumiu19-24全球直營店鋪數(shù)量（家）2019-24店鋪數(shù)量CAGR2019-24營業(yè)收入CAGR12001000800600400200022%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%2019年2024年98693017%11%7%7%

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Prada

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Miu2024——Goyard

Hermès

Chanel

Rebag2024Goyard

Hermès

Chanel

2024Miu

Miu