2026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略2/CONTENTS01020304050607083

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/1.12026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略4房屋竣工面積:當(dāng)月值（萬平方米）房屋竣工面積:當(dāng)月同比（%，右軸）房屋竣工面積:累計同比（%，右軸）400003500030000250002000015000100005000806040200-20-40-60012房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資完成額：單月值（億元）房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資完成額單月值：同比增速（%,右軸）房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資完成額累計值：同比增速（%,右軸）商品房銷售面積：單月值（萬平方米）商品房銷售面積單月值：同比增速（%，右軸）商品房銷售面積累計值：同比增速（%，右軸）3000025000200001500010000500001202000015000100005000050403020100100803房屋新開工面積：單月值（萬平方米）60房屋新開工面積當(dāng)月值：同比增速（%，右軸）40300002500020000150001000050000房屋新開工面積累計值：同比增速（%，右軸）

10020500-10-20-30-20-40-600-50-10051.12026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略??5/20242021鋼鐵下游需求結(jié)構(gòu)2024鋼鐵下游需求結(jié)構(gòu)25%92415%房地產(chǎn)基建機械汽車能源造船家電鐵路集裝箱其他2024房地產(chǎn)基建92616%33%機械28%202410

1231%13%2.3汽車能源2024101%1%17%202410

3120255660%1%造船1%2%家電1401%16%鐵路202411

131%4%15%5%7%5%集裝箱其他2%220257數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究61.22026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略71.32026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略252320181513108:::%80787573706865:::%53081.42026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略91.52026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略維度2024年家電“以舊換新”政策2025年家電“以舊換新”政策僅冰箱、洗衣機、電視、空調(diào)、電腦、熱水器、家用灶具、吸油煙機8類家電新增微波爐、凈水器、洗碗機、電飯煲4類，擴展至12類家電；部分地區(qū)如湖南、江西還納入廚房電器、衛(wèi)浴電器等地方性品類補貼品類補貼標(biāo)準(zhǔn)覆蓋范圍流程優(yōu)化地方政策資金規(guī)模2級能效或水效產(chǎn)品補貼15%，1級能效疊加至20%，單件最高2000元僅限家電產(chǎn)品延續(xù)15%+20%的補貼比例，但空調(diào)產(chǎn)品每人最多可補貼3件（其他品類仍為1件）首次納入數(shù)碼產(chǎn)品（手機、平板、智能手表等），單件最高補貼500元多地推行“立購立減”模式，支付時直接抵扣補貼金額，無需事后申請地方細(xì)化政策增多，如河北增加電暖器、空氣凈化器，湖南增加廚房電器、衛(wèi)浴電器等資金規(guī)模翻倍至3000億元，并向執(zhí)行效果好的地區(qū)傾斜需通過云閃付APP上傳資料、申請補貼，部分地區(qū)需線下核驗地方性政策較少，品類統(tǒng)一全國總補貼資金約1500億元101.62026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略造船完工量:中國:累計值（萬載重噸）新接船舶訂單量:中國:累計值（萬載重噸）造船完工量:中國:累計同比(右軸）新接船舶訂單量:中國:累計同比(右軸）7000300%200%100%0%5500400025001000-500-100%111.72026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略121.82026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略131.92026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略141.1020262026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略萬噸201326,670201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025E11,837-18.00%15,3270.00%14,5243.00%6,91110.00%4,1230.00%1,73810.00%1,8475.00%6915.00%1,002-10.00%27,908-3.00%85,908-2.54%12,65910.00%98,567-1.10%2026E10,061-15.00%15,6342.00%14,9593.00%7,2565.00%4,082-1.00%1,8436.00%1,9204.00%7265.00%902-10.00%28,6062.50%85,9900.09%12,6590.00%98,6490.08%房地產(chǎn)27,3002.36%11,7002.36%14,0005.26%5,0006.38%3,2003.23%1,3000.00%1,10010.00%5000.00%60020.00%8,15625,200-7.69%10,800-7.69%12,900-7.86%5,0000.00%3,2000.00%1,4007.69%1,1000.00%5000.00%6000.00%7,49525,2000.00%10,8000.00%12,800-0.78%5,4008.00%3,2000.00%1,200-14.29%1,1000.00%5000.00%400-33.33%8,73327,0907.50%11,6107.50%13,6006.25%5,8007.41%3,3003.13%1,40016.67%1,2009.09%5000.00%60050.00%11,19128.14%76,29110.03%6,541-35.27%82,8324.27%30,42212.30%12,0513.80%14,2805.00%5,580-3.80%3,3662.00%1,134-18.98%1,2806.68%475-5.10%66110.10%17,47956.19%86,72713.68%5,872-10.24%92,59811.79%32,8417.95%12,5093.80%14,7083.00%5,133-8.00%3,4913.70%1,2046.19%1,3495.37%474-0.10%421-36.20%21,98025.75%94,1108.51%5,229-10.95%99,3397.28%32,647-0.59%12,6220.90%15,2974.00%5,061-1.40%3,5080.50%1,2644.93%1,3782.18%464-2.20%47312.30%28,99531.92%101,7088.07%3,555-32.02%105,2635.96%30,747-5.82%12,6720.40%15,4501.00%5,3044.80%3,6453.90%1,3023.04%1,4303.73%455-1.80%997110.60%27,682-4.53%99,684-1.99%4,23119.03%103,915-1.28%21,363-30.52%13,8639.40%14,986-3.00%5,4853.40%3,8495.60%1,242-4.63%1,4622.30%4631.80%629-36.90%32,53517.53%95,878-3.82%5,50330.07%101,381-2.44%18,368-14.02%14,6815.90%14,537-3.00%5,9959.30%3,9913.70%1,38811.78%1,63111.50%58025.20%402-36.10%31,167-4.20%92,740-3.27%8,79059.73%101,5300.15%14,435-21.41%15,3274.40%14,101-3.00%6,2824.80%4,1233.30%1,58013.85%1,7597.85%65913.50%1,113177.00%28,771-7.69%88,151-4.95%11,50830.92%99,659-1.84%同比（%

）基建11,43013,3004,7003,1001,3001,000500同比（%

）機械同比（%

）汽車同比（%

）能源同比（%

）造船同比（%

）家電同比（%

）鐵路同比（%

）集裝箱500同比（%

）其他9,77272,272同比（%

）總內(nèi)需-16.54%72,8560.81%8,42065.58%81,2765.07%-8.11%68,195-6.40%10,57225.57%78,767-3.09%16.52%69,3331.67%10,106-4.41%79,4390.85%同比（%

）粗鋼凈出口同比（%

）粗鋼總需求同比（%

）5,08514.78%77,3571516

/2.12026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略871007550250%2478724711010095908580757065%100%%10090806040200807060172.22026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略15%10%5%粗鋼產(chǎn)量（億噸）同比增速（右軸）108640%20-5%182.32026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略短期借款+一年內(nèi)

經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的

（貨幣資金-到期的應(yīng)付債券

現(xiàn)金流量凈額

短期負(fù)債）2012-2016年

2022-2025Q3

貨幣資金現(xiàn)金流連續(xù)

現(xiàn)金流連續(xù)

（億元）虧損季度數(shù)

虧損季度數(shù)代碼簡稱（億元）（億元）2025/9/301.56.824.49.5/2025Q3現(xiàn)金流量凈額44.210.73.62025/9/30672025/9/302600507.SH

方大特鋼000825.SZ

太鋼不銹600126.SH

杭鋼股份601005.SH

重慶鋼鐵000932.SZ

華菱鋼鐵600019.SH

寶鋼股份000717.SZ

中南股份600010.SH

包鋼股份600782.SH

新鋼股份601003.SH

柳鋼股份600569.SH

安陽鋼鐵600808.SH

馬鋼股份600022.SH

山東鋼鐵000898.SZ

鞍鋼股份000959.SZ

首鋼股份002110.SZ

三鋼閩光600231.SH

凌鋼股份600581.SH

八一鋼鐵600307.SH

酒鋼宏興600282.SH

南鋼股份000709.SZ

河鋼股份000761.SZ

本鋼板材21142022321142221222122131111221111312323012889033105266108619426010458369359121515282.75177220.5142.06.22.61.31.3815.60.99255211.920.09.50.80.80.81276233.84.4-0.7-1.07915.632.621.2-1.0-2.7-3.7-4.2-4.62151487597.7-5.7265026617101170646626.78.726.3-4.7-11.2-13.7-14.49.6時間政策發(fā)布部門/會議政策內(nèi)容“2024年繼續(xù)實施粗鋼產(chǎn)量調(diào)控”；“到2025年底，鋼鐵行業(yè)能效標(biāo)桿水平以上產(chǎn)能占比達(dá)到30%，能效基準(zhǔn)水平以下產(chǎn)能完成技術(shù)改造或淘汰退出，全國80%以上鋼鐵產(chǎn)能完成超低排放改造”。2024年5月23日

國務(wù)院《2024－2025年節(jié)能降碳行動方案》國家《關(guān)于2024年國民經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展計劃執(zhí)行情況與2025年國民經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展計劃草案的報告》：“2025年持續(xù)實施粗鋼產(chǎn)量調(diào)控，推動鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)減量重組”。2025年3月13日繼續(xù)實施產(chǎn)量壓減政策，按照支持先進企業(yè)發(fā)展、任務(wù)，促進供需動態(tài)平衡。落后低效產(chǎn)能退出的原則落實年度產(chǎn)量調(diào)控2025年9月22日

《鋼鐵行業(yè)穩(wěn)增長工作方案（2025－2026年）》192.420262026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略萬噸201326,670201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025E11,837-18.00%15,3270.00%14,5243.00%6,91110.00%4,1230.00%1,73810.00%1,8475.00%6915.00%1,002-10.00%27,908-3.00%85,908-2.54%12,65910.00%98,567-1.10%99,001-1.50%89,588-1.40%9,4132026E10,061-15.00%15,6342.00%14,9593.00%7,2565.00%4,082-1.00%1,8436.00%1,9204.00%7265.00%902-10.00%28,6062.50%85,9900.09%12,6590.00%98,6490.08%98,011-1.00%88,782-0.90%9,230房地產(chǎn)27,3002.36%11,7002.36%14,0005.26%5,0006.38%3,2003.23%1,3000.00%1,10010.00%5000.00%60020.00%8,156-16.54%72,8560.81%8,42065.58%81,2765.07%82,2705.60%75,7915.02%6,47925,200-7.69%10,800-7.69%12,900-7.86%5,0000.00%3,2000.00%1,4007.69%1,1000.00%5000.00%6000.00%7,495-8.11%68,195-6.40%10,57225.57%78,767-3.09%80,382-2.29%74,520-1.68%5,86225,2000.00%10,8000.00%12,800-0.78%5,4008.00%3,2000.00%1,200-14.29%1,1000.00%5000.00%400-33.33%8,73316.52%69,3331.67%10,106-4.41%79,4390.85%80,8370.57%74,9930.63%5,84427,0907.50%11,6107.50%13,6006.25%5,8007.41%3,3003.13%1,40016.67%1,2009.09%5000.00%60050.00%11,19128.14%76,29110.03%6,541-35.27%82,8324.27%83,1732.89%75,4240.58%7,74930,42212.30%12,0513.80%14,2805.00%5,580-3.80%3,3662.00%1,134-18.98%1,2806.68%475-5.10%66110.10%17,47956.19%86,72713.68%5,872-10.24%92,59811.79%92,82611.61%83,68310.95%9,14332,8417.95%12,5093.80%14,7083.00%5,133-8.00%3,4913.70%1,2046.19%1,3495.37%474-0.10%421-36.20%21,98025.75%94,1108.51%5,229-10.95%99,3397.28%99,6347.33%89,4886.94%10,14610.97%29532,647-0.59%12,6220.90%15,2974.00%5,061-1.40%3,5080.50%1,2644.93%1,3782.18%464-2.20%47312.30%28,99531.92%101,7088.07%3,555-32.02%105,2635.96%106,4776.87%95,4316.64%11,0468.87%1,21430,747-5.82%12,6720.40%15,4501.00%5,3044.80%3,6453.90%1,3023.04%1,4303.73%455-1.80%997110.60%27,682-4.53%99,684-1.99%4,23119.03%103,915-1.28%103,279-3.00%92,228-3.36%11,0510.05%-63621,363-30.52%13,8639.40%14,986-3.00%5,4853.40%3,8495.60%1,242-4.63%1,4622.30%4631.80%629-36.90%32,53517.53%95,878-3.82%5,50330.07%101,381-2.44%101,300-1.92%91,484-0.81%9,81618,368-14.02%14,6815.90%14,537-3.00%5,9959.30%3,9913.70%1,38811.78%1,63111.50%58025.20%402-36.10%31,167-4.20%92,740-3.27%8,79059.73%101,5300.15%101,9080.60%92,0660.64%9,84214,435-21.41%15,3274.40%14,101-3.00%6,2824.80%4,1233.30%1,58013.85%1,7597.85%65913.50%1,113177.00%28,771-7.69%88,151-4.95%11,50830.92%99,659-1.84%100,509-1.37%90,860-1.31%9,649同比（

%

）基建11,43013,3004,7003,1001,3001,000500同比（

%

）機械同比（

%

）汽車同比（

%

）能源同比（

%

）造船同比（

%

）家電同比（

%

）鐵路同比（

%

）集裝箱500同比（

%

）其他9,77272,272同比（

%

）總內(nèi)需同比（

%

）粗鋼凈出口同比（

%

）粗鋼總需求同比（

%

）5,08514.78%77,357粗鋼總產(chǎn)量同比（

%

）高爐粗鋼產(chǎn)量同比（%）77,9048.72%72,16710.74%5,737-11.53%547電爐粗鋼產(chǎn)量同比（%）12.93%994-9.52%1,615-0.31%1,39832.60%34117.99%228-11.18%-800.26%378-1.96%850-2.44%434-1.95%-637供給-需求2021

/032026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略7654321五大品種鋼材庫銷比2025年度2021年度2017年度2024年度2020年度2016年度2023年度2019年度2022年度2018年度45004000350030002500200015001000145027502500225020001750150012501000750125010508506504502505001/1

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11/112/12015201920232016202020242017202120252018202220152019202320162020202420172021202520182022201520192023201620202024201720212025201820222223

/04

20262026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略20135473555201499430482015161521352016139824122017341380720182284119201929538822020121437162021-63650462022-80439720233783925202485035482025E43432652026E-6373600粗鋼供給-需求（萬噸）螺紋均價（元/噸）2425

/05202520262026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略8%12%3%3%52%22%265.12026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略表8：近幾年主流及非主流礦山產(chǎn)能均快速擴張2023-20262025/2026750/750//Vargem

Grande

1Capanema

MaximizationSerraSul

120

S11D1500150020002024Q42025H22026H2202520263.25-3.353.40-3.60VALERIO187.5/11250/62.5312.5/187533/1600Western

Range250060002025.062025

1030600031%SamarcoVale

BHPIron

BridgeBHP800202552600520241600-200060%375/37550%FMG220016500350060002023202620241000-120020272028550/5502208/63382625/437.533/1600Onslow

Iron202420252025-20262026OMC2025Vivek75002024-20301800/18002030417000335004458/38386666/101752023-2026說明：若公司未公告說明新增產(chǎn)能的爬坡周期，我們則按1年爬坡周期估算新增產(chǎn)能所貢獻(xiàn)的產(chǎn)量增量。數(shù)據(jù)

：Mysteel，蘭格鋼鐵網(wǎng)，各公司官網(wǎng)，國泰

證券研究275.12026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略表9：全球鐵礦供應(yīng)端逐步放量疊加需求端難有較大提升，鐵礦供需格局趨于寬松（單位：萬噸）國內(nèi)生鐵產(chǎn)量國內(nèi)鐵礦需求國外生鐵產(chǎn)量國外鐵礦需求其中：

印度生鐵產(chǎn)量印度鐵礦需求日本生鐵產(chǎn)量日本鐵礦需求俄羅斯生鐵產(chǎn)量俄羅斯鐵礦需求美國生鐵產(chǎn)量美國鐵礦需求20198084914982647266875917416137427491138815108增速3.67%3.96%-1.79%-1.52%2.13%2.41%-3.13%-2.86%-1.35%-1.08%-7.30%-7.05%-2.07%-1.80%1.87%-6.57%-21.49%-3.29%-0.17%9.51%7.28%0.60%20208889816520043138801646778125966160114475191增速20218685716185948157897427763144667034131095378增速20228638316142743693816507989149296415119875161增速20238721116343244017824888627161676304118145460增速20248517416006444180830268995169056103114685123增速2025E8432215891245058849159715183095858110415046增速2026E8347915776946206873271049219830574110851504695372142404922784430612450951227263564236618269062356013961426234017245增速-1.00%-0.72%2.55%2.84%8.00%8.31%-2.00%-1.72%0.00%0.28%2.00%2.29%2.00%2.29%0.52%5.45%5.75%10.48%1.41%2.39%2.83%4.04%9.95%-2.30%-2.02%11.64%11.95%14.52%14.84%14.19%14.51%3.60%-0.55%-0.27%-9.27%-9.02%2.91%0.96%1.24%0.74%1.03%7.99%8.30%-1.72%-1.45%5.79%6.09%12.50%12.82%-3.40%-3.13%1.17%0.82%4.34%2.28%-0.69%-4.39%-0.77%-0.03%-2.34%-2.06%0.37%0.65%4.27%4.56%-3.20%-2.92%-6.16%-5.90%-8.49%-8.23%2.45%2.74%-1.15%1.72%2.03%-1.08%2.95%4.13%2.00%1.87%-1.00%-0.72%1.99%2.28%8.00%8.31%-4.00%-3.73%-1.50%-1.22%2.00%2.29%2.00%2.29%0.30%1.93%2.86%1.05%1.43%2.45%3.39%2.72%10.26%-8.73%-8.48%-8.60%-8.34%-17.76%-17.54%1.63%3.20%-8.81%-8.55%-4.03%-3.76%-10.10%-9.84%-14.09%-13.85%-3.39%-0.96%-1.79%1.38%9465223041339646183234041.91%10021222541463.89%9644200037371023122504216962820593869951021003958-17.85%-17.62%-7.37%-7.12%3.35%21.43%21.77%11.14%11.45%2.54%國外其他國家生鐵產(chǎn)量國外其他國家鐵礦需求全球鐵礦需求四大礦山產(chǎn)量其中：VALE250224637023741710795530198326662401121080129431237386-32231774307024536410964930039333412551920750123704233352-12011257584800125160011241231340319722545023650140122252534934221284135224307611133630779324152558222560129737241073-2003213764005924591911224632115331542540721570128744240990-4930219004115524309011418032767327972615622460131319245499240922338420972438271163883370533143265312301013577725216583381.57%-0.53%2.06%2.52%4.33%RIO

TINTOBHPFMG-4.10%-0.27%13.98%13.27%8.22%6.28%0.52%-1.57%-4.42%-1.70%-4.61%-7.41%-4.54%非主流礦產(chǎn)量全球鐵礦供給供給-需求數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究；說明：我們假設(shè)隨著鐵礦資源持續(xù)開采，鐵礦自然品位呈下降趨勢285.220262026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略201520192023201620202024201720212025201820226.05.04.03.02.01.00.010%8%5,2505,0004,7504,5004,2504,0003,7503,5003,2503,0002,7502,5005%3%0%-3%-5%12345678910

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Jul-25數(shù)據(jù)（國泰：煤炭資源網(wǎng)，《否極泰來，行業(yè)迎新一輪上行周期》數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究證券煤炭團隊），國泰證券研究295.22026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略1500080%60%40%20%0%2025年1-9月我國從各國進口煉焦煤的同比增量（萬噸）12500100007500500025000145200100091加拿大俄羅斯

澳大利亞蒙古美國-100-200-300-400-500-38-167-20%-40%-423數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究305.22026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略煉焦煤：進口數(shù)量：蒙古→中國（月/噸）京唐港:庫提價(含稅):主焦煤(A8%,V25%,S0.9%,G85,山西產(chǎn))2025年度2021年度2024年度2020年度2023年度2019年度2022年度4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,00060000005000000400000030000002000000100000001月

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12月：Wind，國泰

證券研究數(shù)據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究315.22026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略（單位：萬噸）煉焦煤國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量同比煉焦煤進口量同比煉焦煤總供給量同比煉焦煤消費量同比焦炭產(chǎn)量2022491760.47%638716.87%555632.12%556181.98%473441.93%10.29%1019059.55%592246.59%591466.34%492604.05%1.20202446946-4.26%1218919.62%59135-0.15%58806-0.57%48927-0.68%1.202025E47,5781.35%11,509-5.58%59087-0.08%58218-1.00%48438-1.00%1.202026E47,340-0.50%11,5090.00%58849-0.40%57636-1.00%47954-1.00%1.202027E47,198-0.30%11,5090.00%58707-0.24%57059-1.00%47474-1.00%1.20同比煉焦煤消費量

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焦炭產(chǎn)量生鐵產(chǎn)量86383-0.80%0.55872110.96%0.5685174-2.34%0.5784322-1.00%0.5783479-1.00%0.5782644-1.00%0.57同比焦炭產(chǎn)量

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生鐵產(chǎn)量煉焦煤出口量同比煉焦煤總消費量同比供給-需求主焦煤均價數(shù)據(jù)253773110110110177.78%556432.01%-8048.00%591836.36%4197.30%58879-0.51%25650.68%58328-0.94%7590.00%57746-1.00%11030.00%57169-1.00%15382840證券研究22832022146614161366：Wind，國泰325.32026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略/%9590858075706560數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究//120010008006004002000/123456789101112445360202180118723961209115905123107015015035035000130130232232200200200200347347-330-270-110-200數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，《焦炭市場供需格局簡析及二季度預(yù)判》，國泰證券研究-400數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究335.42026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略::PB(,61.5%/)/2,0001,5001,0005005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00000數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究100,00012%11%10%9%17,50015,00012,50010,0007,5005,0002,500050%45%40%35%30%25%20%80,00060,00040,00020,00008%7%6%5%數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究345.42026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略120,00030%20%10%0%36,00034,00032,00030,00028,00026,00024,00022,00020,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000-10%數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究3536

/062026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：Mysteel，國泰證券研究37062026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略/HRB400/3mm/61.5%//(/)(/)2013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320243,5553,0482,1352,4123,8074,1193,8823,7165,0464,3973,9253,5453,3503,5503,7763,3562,3072,8253,8614,1773,8493,9035,4064,4764,0783,7113,4803,7209056584124455435027017951,1058418988358007901,5471,2479652,4292,1621,4891,5441,8692,4412,5702,5853,4543,1912,7892,3762,1262,11529135645909241087619329584329197150232452362514671,3112,0552,3702,1682,1133,0963,2042,4262,0451,6501,6453538289954363667942582001652124722025E2026E3839

/7.12026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略

圖61：鋼企數(shù)量逐漸減少圖：行業(yè)集中度呈上升趨勢圖63：我國鋼鐵行業(yè)集中度較海外有較大差距100%62::::70%50%30%10%CR4CR1012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000080%60%40%20%0%日本(CR2)美國(CR4)中國(CR4)數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：世界鋼鐵協(xié)會，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：世界鋼鐵協(xié)會，國泰證券研究407.12026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略表13：我國鋼鐵行業(yè)集中度仍有較大提升空間中國主要鋼鐵集團

2024粗鋼產(chǎn)量（百萬噸）集中度寶武集團主要上市鋼企寶鋼股份2024鋼材產(chǎn)量（萬噸）12中國寶武鋼鐵集團鞍鋼集團130.0959.5542.2840.2239.3731.5729.3324.9022.7219.451005.1012345675141183613187823河鋼集團CR3=23.07%馬鋼股份4沙鋼集團太鋼不銹5建龍集團中南股份6首鋼集團重慶鋼鐵7617德龍集團八一鋼鐵5738湖南鋼鐵集團敬業(yè)集團新鋼股份993910山鋼集團CR10=43.73%中國粗鋼總產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)：WordSteelAssociation，國泰證券研究417.22026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略

圖64：目前我國以長流程煉鋼為主資料：冶控集團427.22026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略

圖65：鋼鐵行業(yè)是我國碳排放的重點行業(yè)之一圖66：長流程煉鋼二氧化碳主要來自于煉鐵過程噸鋼碳排放量（t）我國鋼鐵行業(yè)碳排占比2.001.501.000.500.0015%長流程短流程數(shù)據(jù)：世界金屬導(dǎo)報，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：《中國上市公司碳排放排行榜暨雙碳領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力榜（2024）》，Wind，國泰

證券研究437.22026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略

圖67：行業(yè)龍頭噸鋼二氧化碳排放低于行業(yè)平均值圖68：行業(yè)龍頭噸鋼二氧化碳排放低于行業(yè)平均值（2023年）5000噸鋼碳排放量2.502.001.501.000.500.002023年度碳效（元/噸）40003000200010000數(shù)據(jù)：《中國上市公司碳排放排行榜暨雙碳領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力榜（2024）》，國泰證券研究數(shù)據(jù)：《中國上市公司碳排放排行榜暨雙碳領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力榜（2024）》，Wind，說明：碳效指每排放一噸二氧化碳所產(chǎn)出的營收國泰證券研究447.32026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略14/

202138951624981202279245045224624741929922911218417415812016973202369140538036934631024123921417816214212912412310888202472037622162827392000709.SZ600019.SH600282.SH600307.SH002110.SZ600808.SH000825.SZ000932.SZ600782.SH600126.SH000717.SZ601003.SH600569.SH000898.SZ600010.SH600231.SH000761.SZ601005.SH000959.SZ600581.SH600022.SH600507.SH2003712111791292792262753891826218218870697031014611817413613017791合金材料不銹鋼工模具鋼低合金結(jié)構(gòu)鋼低碳鋼4843125683135701623231194880101107656306231682412521472112457.42026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略

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201972202422100020249008007006005006%49%45%Wind2024

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31467.42026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略15

2024公司代碼600282.SH000708.SZ600019.SH000932.SZ000709.SZ600507.SH000959.SZ600782.SH600010.SH600126.SH600307.SH002110.SZ600808.SH000825.SZ000717.SZ601003.SH600569.SH000898.SZ600231.SH000761.SZ601005.SH600581.SH600022.SH公司簡稱南鋼股份中信特鋼寶鋼股份華菱鋼鐵河鋼股份方大特鋼首鋼股份新鋼股份包鋼股份杭鋼股份酒鋼宏興三鋼閩光馬鋼股份太鋼不銹中南股份柳鋼股份安陽鋼鐵鞍鋼股份凌鋼股份本鋼板材重慶鋼鐵八一鋼鐵山東鋼鐵2024年度現(xiàn)金分紅比例（%）2024年股息率（%）3.52383.47652.84941.73311.19520.55740.52380.23810.07870.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.00000.000050.4549.9561.3433.8043.8430.1336.3097.0934.230.00

0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00477.52026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略162025/10/31PB

000709.SZ600782.SH000898.SZ002110.SZ000959.SZ000932.SZ000825.SZ600019.SH601005.SH000717.SZ600022.SH600282.SH600808.SH600507.SH600231.SH601003.SH600307.SH600126.SH000761.SZ600010.SH600569.SH600581.SH0.500.510.540.550.650.720.720.790.820.830.911.201.301.371.421.531.551.581.692.212.66-14.299822.514.202.664.484.205.774.217.371.522.681.615.254.065.922.355.401.699.133.572.542.534.441,3469929831,3981,5851,8203,1231,7488311,1623,4921,5393,2371,3077441,2378,1071,0148,1471,0701,188487.62026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略1720217726127808596558066704105322022619477616441297201251-2724623210527412202356847455437821720621956202457840733018917816416310894

噸鋼毛利（元/噸）600282.SH

南鋼股份000709.SZ

河鋼股份000932.SZ

華菱鋼鐵600507.SH

方大特鋼000959.SZ

首鋼股份600019.SH

寶鋼股份002110.SZ

三鋼閩光601003.SH

柳鋼股份600022.SH

山東鋼鐵1814673000825.SZ

太鋼不銹

1037922024Q1噸鋼歸母凈利潤（元/噸）2024Q4噸鋼歸母凈利潤（元/噸）2025Q3噸鋼歸母凈利潤（元/噸）4002024Q2噸鋼歸母凈利潤（元/噸）2025Q1噸鋼歸母凈利潤（元/噸）2024Q3噸鋼歸母凈利潤（元/噸）2025Q2噸鋼歸母凈利潤（元/噸）600307.SH

酒鋼宏興600782.SH

新鋼股份000717.SZ

中南股份600808.SH

馬鋼股份600126.SH

杭鋼股份600581.SH

八一鋼鐵600010.SH

包鋼股份000898.SZ

鞍鋼股份601005.SH

重慶鋼鐵600231.SH

凌鋼股份600569.SH

安陽鋼鐵000761.SZ

本鋼板材692598236106107658539505-0.22-39654121207-4300200100058413397-52486-62444-170121-10-69-4126-107-23-69-3675-93525-156-182-232-250-320-100-200-300-400541353494430證券研究-37數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，國泰證券研究497.72026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略

()(X)2025E()2025103120242025E2026E20242026E600019.SH000932.SZ000959.SZ600507.SH600782.SH601003.SH600010.SH7.375.774.205.924.205.402.540.340.290.060.110.01-0.170.010.470.390.20.410.160.350.020.560.450.220.460.210.390.0222207054420-161521142613131913201512714127254507.82025H12026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A344,868-6.6%11,944-2.0%0.552024A322,116-6.6%7,362-38.4%0.342025E313,423-2.7%10,28639.7%0.472026E321,1292.5%12,14718.1%0.562027E327,8792.1%13,72013.0%0.63(+/-)%(+/-)%(()()(%)6.0%3.7%4.9%5.5%5.9%&)13.1321.2415.3612.8911.46數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究517.92026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A164,465-2.5%5,079-20.4%0.742024A144,685-12.0%2,032-60.0%0.292025E153,2445.9%2,67231.5%0.392026E156,8872.4%3,14117.6%0.452027E159,9802.0%3,64015.9%0.53(+/-)%(+/-)%(()()(%)9.5%3.8%4.8%5.4%6.0%&)8.0020.4115.1813.1611.17數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究527.102026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A113,761-3.7%664-41.0%0.092024A108,311-4.8%471-29.0%0.062025E104,291-3.7%1,522223.1%0.202026E106,4732.1%1,71212.5%0.222027E108,2641.7%1,88410.1%0.24(+/-)%(()(+/-)%()(%)1.3%0.9%3.0%3.3%3.6%&)46.6770.0021.0019.0917.50數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究537.112026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A26,507-15.8%689-35.2%0.302024A21,560-18.7%248-64.0%0.112025E18,718-13.2%903264.1%0.392026E19,1282.2%1,04415.7%0.452027E19,5452.2%1,20515.4%0.52(+/-)%(()(+/-)%()(%)&7.5%2.7%9.1%9.8%10.6%)18.5350.5514.2612.3610.69數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究547.122026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A71,143-28.1%4982024A41,804-41.2%332025E44,4856.4%2026E45,2001.6%6672027E45,9271.6%863(+/-)%(()513(+/-)%-52.4%0.161.9%-93.4%0.010.1%1,465.6%0.1629.9%0.212.5%29.4%0.273.2%()(%)1.9%&)25.50408.0025.5019.4315.11數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究557.132026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A79,665-1.3%-1,01256.8%-0.392024A70,132-12.0%-4332025E77,25510.2%1,0382026E79,7213.2%2027E81,6742.4%(+/-)%(()1,19014.6%0.461,3049.6%(+/-)%57.2%-0.17339.9%0.41()0.51(%)-11.5%—-5.2%—11.4%12.9512.0%11.5412.0%10.41&)數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究567.142026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A114,01915.9%5,7212024A109,203-4.2%5,1262025E105,280-3.6%5,5452026E106,3311.0%2027E108,6802.2%(+/-)%(()6,2046,885(+/-)%-19.5%1.1314.8%12.43-10.4%1.0212.5%13.778.2%11.9%1.2312.8%11.4211.0%1.3613.2%10.33()1.1012.4%12.77(%)&)數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究577.152026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A39,8740.8%453-6.9%1.242024A41,8615.0%80577.8%2.202025E45,7089.2%8282.9%2.272026E48,4866.1%92912.2%2.542027E50,3503.8%1,04812.7%2.87(+/-)%(()(+/-)%()(%)&8.7%14.5614.1%8.2113.2%7.9613.6%7.1114.0%6.29)數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究587.162026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A8,56831.1%1,48915.6%1.522024A10,91827.4%1,4900.1%2025E12,80217.3%1,67512.4%1.712026E13,1452.7%1,88612.6%1.932027E14,0997.3%2,14113.5%2.19(+/-)%(()(+/-)%()1.53(%)20.5%18.9%19.6%19.7%20.0%&)16.8816.7615.0013.2911.71數(shù)據(jù)：Wind，上市公司年報，國泰證券研究597.172026年鋼鐵行業(yè)年度策略????()2023A1,856-7.0%936-14.5%1.982024A1,8570.1%852-9.1%1.802025E1,9374.3%9208.1%1.952026E2,0385.2%9978.3%2