正文目錄一、品塊整需平淡龍勢延續(xù) 41、績顧整需淡，頭能續(xù) 42、營況成紅續(xù)，用放化 7二、資議結(jié)性長延續(xù)大注飲鏈觸改善 10圖表目錄圖1：Q3零餐同增速（%） 4表1：食板主司25Q3入歸凈潤況（元） 5表2：食板公季收入利增速 6表3：主成價變情況 7表4：食板分度利率況 8表5：食板分度用投情況 9表6：食板分度母凈率況 9一、食品板塊：整體需求平淡，龍頭勢能延續(xù)1、業(yè)績回顧：整體需求平淡，龍頭勢能延續(xù)Q3圖1：Q3社零及餐飲同比增速（%）社零當月增速-yoy 餐飲當月增速-yo325Q399968元/Q3分板塊看：（預調(diào)酒料漲跌不一。板塊整體業(yè)績平淡，燕京U8省內(nèi)競爭原因增長階段性放緩。重啤應對市場競爭加大費用投入，盈利能力承壓。青啤收入平穩(wěn)，噸價略有下降?；鶖?shù)下利潤增速放緩，新乳業(yè)受益于結(jié)構(gòu)改善利潤持續(xù)高增。調(diào)味品：Q3C休閑食品：Q3業(yè)Q3Q4連鎖&餐飲供應鏈：Q335%次性收益利潤大幅增長。板塊公司25Q3收入同比25Q3歸母凈利潤同比板塊公司25Q3收入同比25Q3歸母凈利潤同比25Q1-3收入同比25Q1-3利潤同比青島啤酒88.8-0.2%13.71.6%1.4%5.7%啤酒珠江啤酒燕京啤酒18.848.7-1.3%1.5%3.36.78.2%26.0%3.8%4.6%17.1%37.4%重慶啤酒42.20.4%3.8-12.7%0.0%-6.8%飲料東鵬飲料61.130.4%13.941.9%34.1%38.9%百潤股份7.83.0%1.6-6.8%-4.9%-4.4%承德露露5.78.9%1.3-0.3%-9.4%-8.5%伊利股份286.3-1.7%32.3-3.3%1.7%-4.1%乳品新乳業(yè)29.14.4%2.327.7%3.5%31.5%妙可藍多13.914.2%0.4214.7%10.1%106.9%海天味業(yè)64.02.5%14.13.4%6.0%10.5%安琪酵母38.94.0%3.221.0%8.0%17.1%中炬高新10.2-22.8%1.2-45.7%-20.0%-34.1%涪陵榨菜6.94.5%2.34.3%1.8%0.3%調(diào)味品天味食品10.213.8%2.08.9%2.0%-9.3%恒順醋業(yè)5.0-4.6%0.317.7%6.3%18.0%寶立食品7.514.6%0.815.7%10.5%10.6%仲景食品3.00.1%0.59.1%-1.6%3.2%日辰股份1.427.7%0.313.1%15.7%18.2%安井食品37.76.6%2.711.8%2.7%-9.3%立高食品10.714.8%0.813.6%15.7%22.0%連鎖&餐飲供應鏈巴比食品佳禾食品味知香5.25.81.916.7%-3.9%2.6%0.70.10.2-16.1%2.7%-17.6%12.1%5.3%3.9%3.5%-68.5%-21.9%千味央廚4.94.3%0.2-19.1%1.0%-34.1%絕味食品14.4-14.0%1.0-26.5%-15.0%-36.1%洽洽食品17.5-5.9%0.8-72.6%-5.4%-73.2%甘源食品5.94.4%0.8-26.3%-4.5%-43.7%鹽津鋪子14.96.0%2.333.5%14.7%22.6%休閑零食有友食品4.732.7%0.744.8%40.4%43.3%西麥食品5.518.9%0.521.0%18.3%21.9%勁仔食品6.86.5%0.6-14.8%2.1%-19.5%桃李面包14.4-11.6%0.9-35.1%-12.9%-31.5%仙樂健康12.518.1%1.016.2%8.0%8.5%保健品壽仙谷1.38.5%0.1-30.1%-10.2%-33.5%民生健康1.630.8%0.3259.3%19.8%32.8%中寵股份14.315.9%1.3-6.6%21.1%18.2%寵物乖寶寵物15.221.9%1.3-16.6%29.0%9.1%佩蒂股份3.6-24.3%0.3-39.4%-17.7%-26.6%板塊公司收入增速歸母凈利潤增速24Q324Q4板塊公司收入增速歸母凈利潤增速24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q324Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3青島啤酒-5.3%7.4%2.9%1.3%-0.2%3.5%-9.0%-0.8%7.1%7.3%啤酒珠江啤酒燕京啤酒6.9%0.2%2.1%1.3%10.7%6.7%5.0%6.1%-1.3%1.5%35.6%45.9%10.6%19.8%118.7%25.3%29.8%61.1%20.2%43.0%重慶啤酒-7.1%-11.5%1.5%-1.8%0.4%-6.0%-10.1%-2801.4%4.6%-12.7%東鵬飲料47.3%25.1%39.2%34.1%30.4%74.6%78.4%61.2%47.6%30.8%飲料百潤股份-6.0%-18.0%-8.1%-9.0%3.0%-7.3%-24.0%0.5%7.0%-10.9%承德露露-3.0%22.7%-18.4%-6.1%8.9%-37.8%-2.3%27.0%-12.5%-9.0%伊利股份-6.7%-7.1%1.4%5.8%-1.7%-40.2%8.5%-330.4%-17.7%44.6%乳品新乳業(yè)-3.8%-9.9%0.4%5.5%4.4%17.7%22.9%28.1%48.5%27.4%妙可藍多-12.1%-7.8%6.3%9.6%14.2%712.9%152.0%-39.7%114.9%53.1%海天味業(yè)9.8%10.0%8.1%7.0%2.5%11.1%10.5%17.8%14.8%11.6%安琪酵母27.1%9.0%8.9%11.2%4.0%17.3%7.0%3.7%16.0%15.4%中炬高新2.2%32.6%-25.8%-9.1%-22.8%107.0%32.9%-89.3%-24.2%-31.6%涪陵榨菜6.8%-14.8%-4.8%7.6%4.5%-15.6%17.9%-23.1%0.2%-4.6%調(diào)味品天味食品10.9%21.6%-24.8%21.9%13.8%-10.9%64.8%41.0%-57.5%62.7%恒順醋業(yè)5.6%41.9%36.0%-8.2%-4.6%-24.1%80.0%114.0%2.4%40.6%寶立食品4.1%18.2%7.2%9.5%14.6%-46.7%-13.4%-0.5%-4.2%22.5%仲景食品9.6%-0.4%1.1%-6.2%0.1%-2.2%-3.0%-18.8%-4.8%5.6%日辰股份6.5%14.9%10.5%6.8%27.7%20.4%44.5%-36.5%36.9%11.0%連鎖&餐安井食品4.6%7.3%-4.1%5.7%6.6%-2.5%-36.8%22.8%-10.0%-22.7%飲供應立高食品-1.1%22.0%14.1%18.4%14.8%0.3%35.1%176.0%15.1%40.8%鏈巴比食品-0.5%3.8%4.5%13.5%16.7%75.6%14.0%39.2%-6.1%31.4%佳禾食品-20.1%-16.5%5.5%15.5%-3.9%-67.2%-81.3%-97.5%-91.5%-64.1%味知香-9.2%-10.4%4.2%5.2%2.6%-40.1%-21.8%-29.8%3.2%-46.8%千味央廚-1.2%-11.9%1.5%-3.1%4.3%-3.4%-42.1%-94.7%-38.0%-42.0%絕味食品-13.3%-23.8%-11.5%-19.8%0.0%25.1%-3.3%-366.2%-27.3%-57.6%洽洽食品3.7%2.0%-13.8%9.7%-5.9%7.6%21.4%-24.8%-67.9%-88.2%甘源食品15.6%22.0%-14.0%-3.4%4.4%16.9%17.1%-13.9%-42.2%-71.0%休閑零食鹽津鋪子26.2%28.0%6.5%30.0%42.9%4.0%25.7%39.2%15.9%13.5%52.4%21.0%6.0%32.7%18.9%19.1%-0.1%-17.4%15.6%75.2%53.9%33.7%258.0%8.2%11.6%16.2%21.2%21.7%77.0%25.2%勁仔食品12.9%11.9%10.3%-10.4%6.5%58.7%42.6%0.3%-8.2%-36.3%桃李面包-12.5%-14.9%-14.2%-13.0%-11.6%14.2%-13.4%-24.2%-27.1%-31.4%仙樂健康10.4%7.7%0.3%4.7%18.1%27.4%1.6%-11.1%8.9%1.1%保健品壽仙谷-30.2%-9.1%-22.7%-6.6%8.5%-14.1%-63.8%-51.3%-24.3%-67.6%民生健康3.6%26.7%15.7%17.3%30.8%24.5%-23.3%42.8%6.5%7.1%中寵股份23.6%23.3%25.4%23.4%15.9%7.1%73.2%98.2%62.1%29.8%寵物乖寶寵物18.9%29.5%34.8%31.0%21.9%32.6%49.1%34.8%37.7%8.5%佩蒂股份12.6%-32.1%-14.4%-13.6%-24.3%1316.0%320.0%51.7%-46.7%1.2%2、經(jīng)營情況：成本紅利延續(xù)，費用投放分化大眾品企業(yè)成本紅利延續(xù)，企業(yè)毛利率有所分化。25Q399968/Q3/妙可藍多真實毛利率提升。啤酒及飲料企業(yè)受益于包Q4 表3：主要成本價格變動情況 板塊公司24Q324Q425Q125Q2板塊公司24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3同比青島啤酒42.1%26.2%41.6%45.8%43.6%1.4%啤酒珠江啤酒燕京啤酒49.8%48.0%28.8%9.9%45.0%42.8%56.1%47.7%50.9%50.2%1.2%2.2%重慶啤酒49.2%43.4%48.4%51.2%50.9%1.7%飲料承德露露45.8%70.2%40.7%43.9%68.1%39.8%44.5%69.7%48.1%45.7%71.0%40.5%45.2%70.2%44.7%-0.6%0.0%4.0%乳品伊利股份新乳業(yè)35.0%28.8%22.5%31.0%26.0%26.4%37.8%29.5%31.5%34.4%30.5%30.2%33.9%28.4%28.2%-1.1%-0.4%5.7%海天味業(yè)36.6%37.7%40.0%40.2%39.6%3.0%安琪酵母21.4%24.1%26.0%26.2%24.4%3.1%中炬高新38.8%45.8%38.7%39.4%39.5%0.7%涪陵榨菜56.2%43.4%56.0%52.0%52.9%-3.2%調(diào)味品天味食品38.8%40.8%40.7%37.0%40.5%1.6%恒順醋業(yè)35.6%31.3%35.5%42.1%34.7%-0.9%寶立食品31.3%35.5%32.6%34.7%32.6%1.3%仲景食品40.9%38.4%45.9%44.1%43.8%2.8%日辰股份39.0%39.3%39.2%37.3%37.5%-1.5%安井食品19.9%25.1%23.3%18.0%20.0%0.1%立高食品31.3%29.8%30.0%30.7%28.9%-2.4%連鎖&餐飲供應鏈巴比食品味知香26.8%15.0%25.9%27.5%14.1%24.3%25.5%12.0%22.9%28.2%12.7%18.8%29.6%12.9%22.1%2.8%-2.1%-3.8%千味央廚22.4%22.0%24.4%22.7%21.2%-1.3%絕味食品31.1%30.4%30.8%28.9%30.9%-0.2%洽洽食品33.1%25.8%19.5%21.4%24.5%-8.6%甘源食品36.8%35.1%34.3%32.8%37.1%0.3%鹽津鋪子30.6%27.6%28.5%31.0%31.6%1.0%休閑零食有友食品28.9%25.7%27.1%28.0%26.9%-1.9%西麥食品42.8%37.4%43.7%43.5%43.7%0.9%勁仔食品30.1%31.0%29.9%28.9%28.9%-1.1%桃李面包23.2%22.0%22.0%23.8%23.2%0.0%保健品壽仙谷民生健康29.6%78.2%47.9%32.1%81.1%48.5%33.1%81.6%56.1%33.3%79.7%51.9%30.8%75.1%45.5%1.1%-3.2%-2.3%中寵股份26.9%29.7%31.9%31.0%29.1%2.2%寵物乖寶寵物41.8%42.9%41.6%43.8%42.9%1.1%佩蒂股份30.9%35.0%28.6%34.8%32.2%1.3%Q3板塊公司銷售費用率管理費用率24Q324Q4板塊公司銷售費用率管理費用率24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3同比24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3同比青島啤酒14.1% 37.2% 12.5% 8.7% 13.7%-0.4%3.1% 14.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.1%0.1%啤酒珠江啤酒燕京啤酒15.2% 16.0% 15.8% 13.4% 15.5%13.9% 2.6% 15.7% 6.0% 13.8%0.2%6.5% 13.2% 7.8% 5.9% 6.5%10.9% 7.0% 11.7% 9.2% 10.1%0.0%-0.1%-0.9%重慶啤酒14.7% 34.4% 12.7% 17.4% 16.7%1.9%3.2% 7.1% 3.4% 3.1% 3.8%0.5%飲料承德露露17.9% 18.9% 16.7% 14.8% 15.3%23.5% 26.5% 21.3% 19.2% 26.7%10.0% 8.3% 18.1% 26.0% 14.8%-2.6%2.4% 3.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5%6.2% 8.6% 7.4% 8.0% 6.7%2.6% 1.7% 1.2% 3.4% 2.6%0.1%0.5%0.0%3.2%4.8%乳品新乳業(yè)妙可藍多19.0% 18.1% 16.9% 19.9% 18.2%15.3% 14.7% 17.0% 15.9% 15.1%15.1% 18.6% 16.8% 17.9% 17.5%-0.7%-0.2%3.5% 4.1% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0%4.0% 1.2% 3.5% 2.9% 2.9%5.1% 6.1% 5.0% 6.3% 6.5%0.4%-1.0%2.4%1.4%海天味業(yè)5.6% 6.6% 5.9% 7.0% 7.4%1.8%2.4% 2.7% 1.9% 2.3% 3.4%1.0%安琪酵母5.6% 5.8% 5.6% 5.6% 6.2%0.6%3.1% 3.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.8%0.7%中炬高新6.3% 8.8% 8.6% 18.9% 14.3%8.1%7.0% 6.8% 8.1% 8.1% 8.9%1.9%涪陵榨菜17.2% 12.3% 12.9% 17.2% 18.1%0.8%3.1% 7.6% 2.6% 3.9% 2.8%-0.3%調(diào)味品天味食品7.8% 15.3% 22.3% 10.0% 10.9%3.1%5.2% 4.8% 7.1% 6.0% 3.8%-1.4%恒順醋業(yè)18.8% 19.0% 17.1% 19.4% 17.2%-1.6%5.0% 5.3% 3.9% 4.7% 5.0%0.0%寶立食品13.1% 15.0% 14.4% 16.5% 13.2%0.0%2.4% 3.7% 2.1% 2.6% 2.3%-0.1%仲景食品14.9% 19.0% 18.6% 11.4% 14.4%-0.5%4.2% 5.5% 4.6% 4.6% 5.9%1.7%日辰股份7.1% 12.8% 5.3% 4.7% 3.5%-3.5%0.3% 9.6% 9.5% 7.1% 5.9%5.7%安井食品6.4% 7.3% 6.7% 5.0% 6.1%-0.3%3.5% 3.4% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0%-0.5%立高食品10.5% 13.5% 10.1% 11.1% 9.5%-1.0%6.9% 6.0% 5.4% 5.7% 5.3%-1.5%連鎖&巴比食品4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 3.6%-0.3%8.8% 6.4% 7.5% 6.9% 7.0%-1.8%餐飲供佳禾食品7.3% 7.8% 7.1% 6.4% 6.9%-0.4%3.7% 4.3% 3.4% 2.8% 3.4%-0.3%應鏈味知香4.1% 3.6% 4.3% 4.6% 5.0%1.0%7.2% 6.8% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6%-1.5%千味央廚4.9% 5.6% 8.0% 5.6% 4.7%-0.2%9.3% 10.5% 8.7% 10.8% 9.5%0.2%絕味食品9.7% 16.5% 9.7% 10.4% 9.6%-0.1%6.7% 9.5% 7.6% 9.7% 8.4%1.7%洽洽食品7.9% 9.8% 10.6% 14.1% 10.1%2.3%3.9% 3.5% 4.6% 7.1% 4.5%0.6%甘源食品11.4% 12.8% 17.3% 20.0% 17.3%5.9%3.7% 3.7% 4.9% 5.5% 3.7%0.0%休閑零食鹽津鋪子12.1% 11.5% 11.2% 9.8% 8.6%9.3% 10.0% 8.9% 8.0% 8.3%29.0% 24.0% 29.2% 30.7% 27.1%-3.5%-1.0%-1.8%3.1% 4.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.3%3.2% 6.1% 3.1% 3.2% 2.7%6.0% 7.6% 4.3% 5.7% 5.1%0.1%-0.5%-0.9%勁仔食品12.2% 10.6% 13.4% 14.3% 13.8%1.6%3.4% 4.3% 4.0% 4.6% 3.8%0.4%桃李面包7.9% 7.9% 8.6% 8.4% 8.9%1.0%2.1% 2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%0.0%保健品壽仙谷民生健康7.3% 10.4% 9.3% 8.1% 7.7%46.5% 41.9% 40.1% 50.2% 39.2%35.1% 26.4% 21.7% 31.7% 27.4%0.4%9.4% 10.4% 11.9% 11.1% 9.5%17.8% 11.0% 11.8% 19.9% 19.5%9.2% 14.8% 5.0% 7.4% 10.9%0.2%1.6%1.7%-7.3%-7.7%中寵股份9.3% 12.7% 11.4% 12.9% 11.5%2.3%4.2% 6.1% 6.1% 6.0% 4.5%0.3%寵物乖寶寵物18.7% 22.9% 17.8% 23.9% 23.3%4.6%5.7% 6.0% 5.1% 5.7% 6.3%0.6%佩蒂股份5.2% 12.4% 8.5% 7.0% 8.2%3.0%6.2% 11.1% 9.3% 7.9% 7.1%0.9%板塊公司24Q324Q425Q125Q2板塊公司24Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3同比青島啤酒15.2%-20.3%16.4%21.8%15.4%0.3%啤酒珠江啤酒燕京啤酒16.1%11.0%0.4%-12.8%12.8%4.3%23.1%19.8%17.7%13.7%1.6%2.7%重慶啤酒10.2%-13.7%10.9%8.7%8.9%-1.3%飲料承德露露20.8%22.7%23.9%18.9%21.9%21.9%20.2%24.6%21.5%23.7%27.6%11.2%22.7%20.5%21.9%1.8%-2.1%-2.0%乳品新乳業(yè)妙可藍多11.5%6.4%0.5%-9.0%2.5%2.3%14.8%5.1%6.7%8.0%9.1%3.8%11.3%7.8%3.1%-0.2%1.4%2.6%海天味業(yè)21.8%23.5%26.5%24.8%22.0%0.2%安琪酵母7.0%8.7%9.8%10.5%8.2%1.1%中炬高新17.1%20.1%16.4%7.4%12.0%-5.0%涪陵榨菜33.9%30.3%38.2%28.1%33.9%0.0%調(diào)味品天味食品20.7%17.3%11.6%15.4%19.8%-0.9%恒順醋業(yè)5.0%1.1%9.0%10.8%6.2%1.2%寶立食品