圖表1：澳門總博彩恢復(fù)情況：2025年10月GGR修復(fù)至2019年同期91%（百萬澳門元）DICJ、圖表2：澳門博彩總收入對比2019年的恢復(fù)情況（按季度）（百萬澳門元）圖表3：澳門VIP收入對比2019年的恢復(fù)情況（按季度）（百萬澳門元）DICJ、圖表4：澳門中場收入對比2019年的恢復(fù)情況（按季度）（百萬澳門元）圖表5：澳門老虎機(jī)收入對比2019年的恢復(fù)情況（按季度）（百萬澳門元）DICJ、圖表6：2025年9月訪澳內(nèi)地游客恢復(fù)至2019年103%的水平（人，%）圖表7：2025年9月訪澳香港游客恢復(fù)至2019年93%的水平（人，%）澳門統(tǒng)計(jì)局、圖表8：2025年9月總訪澳游客恢復(fù)至2019年100%的水平（人，%）圖表9：2025年10-12月澳門演唱會排期Klook、大麥網(wǎng)、圖表10：澳門博彩恢復(fù)至19年水平（%）、Bloomberg、圖表11：2023年以來澳門博企EBITDA同比和環(huán)比增速（%）、Bloomberg、圖表12：2019年以來澳門博彩營收同比增速（%）MacauGGRMacauGGR同比增長（%）GGR 19Q119Q219Q319Q421Q1 21Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù) -8% -22% 685%284%-13%-25%-67%-70%-46%95%436%779%421%65%24%14%6% 1% 8%13%新濠博亞4%-40%187%151%-20%-21%-73%-73%-49%54%463%774%383%69%22%15%7%12%14%12%金沙中國8%0%-5%-4%-13%10430%357%-10%-35%-66%-63%-37%160%462%792%417%44%14%3%-2%-6%0%9%永利澳門-3%-2%-21%-21%-23%breakeven315%-23%-35%-77%-71%-45%109%646%812%452%78%17%8%2%-12%2%15%美高梅中國20%26%25%5%4%1124%545%-5%-15%-58%-72%-43%131%456%879%481%83%37%14%3%-7%12%20%銀河娛樂-11%-12%-11%-16%-12%1010%339%-17%-30%-73%-76%-51%87%480%908%411%59%35%16%19%14%16%21%澳博控股-5%-10%-13%-8%-33%200%160%-1%-4%-46%-61%-40%53%246%502%339%77%31%31%20%10%5%VIP 19Q119Q219Q319Q421Q1 21Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)-13%-16%-22%-23%-38%466%155%-36%-47%-77%-81%-56%77%512%919%486%68%10%11%10%1% 23%29%新濠博亞金沙中國永利澳門美高梅中國銀河娛樂澳博控股-8%7%16%-6%-75%4% 3%-59%-11%-84%-79%-27%5%113%73%616%630%219%276%35%-5%29%7%54%28%30%0%-13%-7%-9%3%22%-36%-20%-9%breakevenbreakeven85%-7%-58%-67%-55%-35%216%425%-20%-2%-5%-15%27%-13%-16%-41%-39%-41%282%316%170%-50%-49%-65%-71%-68%-93%-87%-89%2304%1101%2383%97%102%64%221%-25%-22%0% 4%-34%6%30%47%47%4%-20%-28%-27%512%454%-66%-89%-50%320%492%508%1455%1352%655%514%623%-25%-16%69%44%-23%-24%-25%-27%-29%-56%-62%-91%-95%-88%-91%-79%40%49%35%4%132%52%73%86%-19%-31%-43%-28%-59%115%62%-29%-61%-42%1092%1055%-1%-14%中場 19Q119Q219Q319Q421Q1 21Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)18%21%19%9%-5%1095%441%0%-11%-63%-67%-43%100%433%780%416%68%30%15%4%0% 3%7%新濠博亞金沙中國永利澳門美高梅中國銀河娛樂澳博控股9%29%22%12% 9%1771%374%594%351%798%570%-8%-11%-11%-27%-27%-72%-77%-67%-65%-72%-67%-55%75%158%122%118%95%67%526%534%528%495%469%208%1062%871%875%848%888%487%86%416%55%396%78%30%13%7%4% 12%9%13%5% 9% 3%2% 8% 7% 5%-11%5698%-36%-37%-42%-45%-40%17%4%32%9%-4%-9%1%0%12%13%-5%2670%-18%1%4%-7%-4%35%36%48%31% 22%9% 7%11%0% 4%2140%8% 5%-58%-66%-62%-66%478%400%320%82%50%21%9%18%2656%7%11%-8%57%32%13%11%6% 6%13%8% 8%12%8%-21%241%190%0%-41%-57%471%72%36%25%16%9% 6%老虎機(jī)19Q119Q219Q319Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q3行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)-26%211%187%2%112%97%165%159%0%0%0%0%32%21%9%14%2%9%10%新濠博亞-11%-14%-7%16%-10%75%136%30%-2%-40%-42%-37%60%126%203%176%17%20%9%7%9%6%8%金沙中國2%9%15%3%-35%748%216%4%-27%-43%-54%-46%307%495%960%674%43%10%5%0%-2%10%13%永利澳門-8%1%17%-6%-23%458%193%-27%-5%-65%-40%-17%79%337%210%199%37%20%35%8%-6%12%9%美高梅中國39%-7%3%-3%5%414%243%-1%-18%-42%-70%-44%78%186%582%306%51%42%21%21%-1%-1%12%銀河娛樂0%6%2%-4%-42%810%386%-13%22%-67%-57%-35%131%603%748%446%78%49%35%54%22%19%11%澳博控股81%389%656%379%112%11%24%29%32%21%、Bloomberg、圖表13：2020年以來澳門博彩市占率（%）新濠博亞 金沙中國 永利澳門 美高梅中國 銀河娛樂 澳博控股14%12%14%12%12%12%14%13%15%14%12%12.2%12.2%12.2%12.6%12.8%14.2%13.7%13.7%12.5%20%19%18%30%18.6%21.4%20.8%20.0%20.4%20.7%19.6%18.4%17.7%18.7%17.9%17.7%19.2%18.1%20.6%16.2%19.2%20.1%19.9%17.4%16.5%8.8%14.0%8.1%12.7%11.6%11.3%14.0%14.0%13.3%14.3%13.0%14.4%15.5%14.7%14.6%16.2%17.1%16.1%14.8%15.6%15.7%16.6%14.7%7.0%.%.%.%.%13.8%13.5%12.8%12.5%9.7%12.7%12.6%13.2%13.4%13.3%13.5%14.2%12.6%12.7%13.0%12.4%11.9%21.8%17.7%21.4%24.3%25.1%21.7%22.3%21.2%25.7%26.3%25.4%27.7%26.7%26.8%25.5%24.1%24.4%24.4%23.5%22.5%22.6%47.0%22.1%24.4%18.3%17.0%17.9%16.4%16.9%18.0%14.7%14.5%15.6%14.0%15.3%14.4%14.6%14.3%14.9%14.7%14.7%15.8%15.8%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q20%20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q323Q424Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q2、Bloomberg、圖表14：永利VIP業(yè)務(wù)毛收入對比19年同期修復(fù)情況（百萬美元） 圖表15：永利中場業(yè)務(wù)毛收入對比19年同期修復(fù)情況（百萬美元）永利公告、 永利公告、圖表16：永利老虎機(jī)毛收入對比19年同期修復(fù)情況（百萬美元） 圖表17：永利非博彩毛收入對比19年同期修復(fù)情況（百萬美元）永利公告、 永利公告、圖表18：19Q3永利中國各業(yè)務(wù)收入占比 圖表19：25Q3永利中國各業(yè)務(wù)收入占比老虎機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)非博彩業(yè)務(wù)12%非博彩業(yè)務(wù)12%中場業(yè)務(wù)42%VIP39%

老虎機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)永利公告、 永利公告、圖表20：永利EBITDAMargin40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%

29.2%

31.2%

31.1%

31.7%

30.8%29.1%28.7%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%

6.0%

10.5%

3.3%0.0%-5.0% -7.9%-10.0%2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3-15.0%2019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q3Bloomberg一致預(yù)期、；注：由于疫情期間（2020Q2-Q3）EBITDAMargin為異常值，故我們不予展示盈利預(yù)測與公司估值考慮到永利Q3中場呈現(xiàn)反彈態(tài)勢，且EM抬升，我們上調(diào)永利25-27EGGR預(yù)測至295/302/317億港元，上調(diào)25-27E經(jīng)調(diào)整EBITDA預(yù)測至94/97/102億港元。永利非博彩布局偏弱，且VIP恢復(fù)亦落后于行業(yè)。我們基于行業(yè)均值8.7x2026EEV/EBITDA給予折價(jià)，維持8.0x2026EEV/EBITDA，目標(biāo)價(jià)從6.7港元上調(diào)至7.2港元，維持增持。圖表21：永利盈利預(yù)測百萬港幣2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E營業(yè)總收入361627612117255,643.9424,26828,74029,36730,13131,860YoY(%)-8.70-79.0054.03-51.86329.9918.432.182.605.74博彩毛收入416847632113094,80523,72528,80029,49830,21331,738YoY(%)-12.10-81.7048.20-57.50393.7121.392.422.425.05VIP流水6370571201849262234,509129,124140,806169,253170,926185,126VIP贏率3.202.303.401.803.493.472.883.022.96VIP毛收入2039027493175620.8484,5044,8934,8785,1695,486yoy-24.85-86.5215.50-80.44625.438.64-0.315.976.13中場流水82552203953611219,42688,316103,324109,630110,726116,263中場贏率22.3021.3020.5019.0020.2421.5320.9120.8120.71中場毛收入18428433774063,69117,87922,24822,92223,04624,083yoy5.89-76.4770.76-50.16384.3824.443.030.544.50老虎機(jī)流水73112185162864112,74135,98544,12046,89952,37653,376老虎機(jī)贏率3.903.002.503.873.733.763.623.814.06老虎機(jī)毛收入28665467284941,3421,6591,6981,9982,169yoy0.21-80.9533.33-32.14171.9923.602.3717.678.56EBITDA9568.361-2063.836383.8-1948.486,621.039,5289,3599,65410,238EBITDAmargin26.46-27.113.27-34.5227.9133.1531.8732.0432.13公告、預(yù)測圖表22：永利盈利預(yù)測變動百萬港幣2025E2026E2027E前值新值變動前值新值變動前值新值變動博彩毛收入28423294983.78%29132302133.71%30620317383.65%YoY-1.31%2.42%3.73pct2.49%2.42%-0.07pct5.11%5.05%-0.06pct營業(yè)總收入28491293673.08%29250301313.01%30948318602.95%YoY-0.87%2.18%3.05pct2.66%2.60%-0.06pct5.81%5.74%-0.07pct毛利080195%毛利率52.80%52.80%0.00pct52.20%52.20%0.00pct51.60%51.60%0.00pctEBITDA908093593.08%937296543.01%9945102382.95%EBITDA利潤率31.87%31.87%0.00pct32.04%32.04%0.00pct32.13%32.13%0.00pct凈利潤332534744.49%337835234.29%555159156.56%凈利率11.67%11.83%0.16pct11.55%11.69%0.14pct17.94%18.56%0.63pctEPS0.640.663.67%0.650.673.47%1.061.135.73%公告、預(yù)測圖表23：永利目標(biāo)價(jià)測算2026E經(jīng)調(diào)整EBITDA（百萬港元）9,654預(yù)測EV/EBITDA（倍）8.0企業(yè)價(jià)值（百萬港元）77,458現(xiàn)金（百萬港元）7,523長短期債務(wù)（百萬港元）47,152市值（百萬港元）37,829總股數(shù)（百萬）5,257目標(biāo)價(jià)（港元）7.20預(yù)測圖表24：重點(diǎn)港股美股上市博彩公司和酒店估值表公司股票代碼收入（十億美元）2025E 2026E 2027EEBITDA（十億美元）2025E 2026E 2027E2025EPE2026E2027E2025EEV/EBITDA2026E2027E港股博彩企業(yè)均值27.4514.7011.809.658.708.06銀河娛樂 27HK6.156.607.131.781.942.1115.9014.4813.4010.819.909.13金沙中國 1928HK7.367.998.462.232.522.7220.4116.1313.9312.2610.8810.07永利澳門 HK3.743.974.120.941.041.0815.5010.909.407.737.036.73澳博控股 K3.823.693.960.480.580.6575.1321.5613.9411.069.008.08美高梅中國 2282HK4.314.514.671.161.201.2511.8410.8610.068.568.237.94新濠國際 200HK5.225.445.661.251.311.4625.9314.2410.087.467.146.40美股博彩企業(yè)均值18.7321.9213.648.728.267.80金沙集團(tuán) US12.6613.3614.094.795.095.4021.2719.3617.4711.4810.8010.19美高梅國際 US17.3417.6217.994.654.825.0616.2614.3810.958.328.037.65永利度假 US7.047.357.682.022.142.2525.4920.7218.8911.1210.469.99新濠博亞 MLCOUS5.125.285.511.301.331.4015.0211.248.517.647.517.11凱撒娛樂 CZRUS11.4811.8012.103.663.844.0167.0123.087.727.377.06佩恩國民博彩 PENNUS6.997.387.761.541.802.0323.0810.346.688.317.116.32博伊德賭場 US4.003.923.981.321.301.3611.2710.389.876.466.546.28美股高端酒店均值37.8728.6523.9217.4816.2315.02萬豪酒店 US26.2426.6629.155.365.706.1027.9324.7322.0917.1916.1615.12希爾頓酒店 HLTUS11.9412.8713.983.713.994.3432.9029.1125.2719.6418.2516.79洲際酒店 IHGUS3.083.643.961.341.441.5424.6921.8419.3416.8215.6314.55凱悅酒店 HUS7.157.497.951.161.271.3965.9638.9228.9916.2914.8813.62Bloomberg一致預(yù)期、；注：港股截至11月7日收盤價(jià)，美股截至11月6日收盤價(jià)；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示政策落地不及預(yù)期：20249月以來澳門客流恢復(fù)受中國消費(fèi)刺激政策帶動，政策后續(xù)落地情況或影響客流及博彩收入恢復(fù)。2025-2027博彩收入復(fù)蘇水平。盈利預(yù)測利潤表現(xiàn)金流量表會計(jì)年度(港幣百萬)202320242025E2026E2027E會計(jì)年度(港幣百萬)202320242025E2026E2027E營業(yè)收入24,26828,74029,36730,13131,860EBITDA6,6219,5289,3599,65410,238銷售成本(10,058)(12,217)(13,861)(14,403)(15,420)融資成本2,7642,6222,1482,109(552.19)毛利潤14,21116,52315,50615,72916,440營運(yùn)資本變動100.00597.651,428569.00569.00銷售及分銷成本(4,373)(4,280)(4,699)(4,821)(5,268)稅費(fèi)(42.71)(51.85)(56.32)(57.12)(95.89)管理費(fèi)用(2,374)(2,370)(2,790)(2,862)(3,435)其他(2,630)(5,002)(3,136)(3,231)(1,171)其他收入/支出(3,761)(4,544)(2,937)(3,013)(2,279)經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流6,8127,6949,7439,0448,988財(cái)務(wù)成本凈額(2,764)(2,622)(2,148)(2,109)552.19CAPEX(1,044)(1,567)(2,300)(3,000)(3,300)應(yīng)占聯(lián)營公司利潤及虧損0.000.000.000.000.00其他投資活動(4,365)(3,263)3,0861,7001,700稅前利潤1,2143,2503,5303,5806,011投資活動現(xiàn)金流(5,409)(4,830)786.30(1,300)(1,600)稅費(fèi)開支(42.71)(51.85)(56.32)(57.12)(95.89)債務(wù)增加量4,451(7,841)1,000(1,500)(1,500)少數(shù)股東損益0.000.000.000.000.00權(quán)益增加量0.010.010.000.000.00歸母凈利潤1,1723,1983,4743,5235,915派發(fā)股息0.00(0.30)(784.00)(1,478)(1,457)折舊和攤銷(2,374)(2,370)(2,538)(2,672)(2,868)其他融資活動現(xiàn)金流(2,965)(3,582)(4,693)(5,036)(2,814)EBITDA6,6219,5289,3599,65410,238融資活動現(xiàn)金流1,486(11,423)(4,477)(8,014)(5,771)EPS(港幣，基本)0.220.610.660.671.13現(xiàn)金變動2,890(8,559)6,052(270.19)1,617年初現(xiàn)金7,42310,3001,7417,7937,523匯率波動影響(12.20)126.00(62.12)641.63(316.35)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表年末現(xiàn)金10,3001,7417,7937,5239,140會計(jì)年度(港幣百萬)202320242025E2026E2027E存貨286.19302.19332.40349.02383.93應(yīng)收賬款和票據(jù)1,180980.141,2471,3721,509現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價(jià)物10,30011,3357,7937,5239,140其他流動資產(chǎn)5,605141.07155.18170.70189.77總流動資產(chǎn)17,37212,7589,5289,41511,223業(yè)績指標(biāo)固定資產(chǎn)23,02322,21921,98122,30924,540會計(jì)年度(倍)202320242025E2026E2027E無形資產(chǎn)1,8701,7061,7061,706398.35增長率(%)其他長期資產(chǎn)2,5652,5473,3124,3054,736營業(yè)收入329.9818.432.182.605.74總長期資產(chǎn)27,45726,47326,99928,32129,674毛利潤307.9816.27(6.16)1.444.52總資產(chǎn)44,82939,23236,52837,73640,897營業(yè)利潤(176.41)43.93