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HSBC28May2025
GlobalResearch
Equities
Automobiles
JOINWebcast:GlobalAutos|Navigatingtradeuncertainty
Thursday,5Juneat9:00AMNYT/2:00PMUKT
Discussiontopics
uAlleyesareontradetalksbetweentheUS,EU,andChinawithmanyinvestorslookingforsignsofde-escalation.
uAutosectorimpactswillvarybasedongeography.Mitigationeffortsareabig
unknownfortheEU,andintheUSweexpectmodestpricehikesandproductioncuts.ChinesefirmscouldbenefitfromEUEVtariffchanges,andKorean
companieshavetakenmeasuresfortariffresilience.
uJoinourautosanalyststouncoverpotentialopportunitiesandgaininsightonthischallengingtradeenvironment.
uClickheretoregisterforthewebcastandsubmityourquestionsthroughtheQ&Afeature.
Speakers
uMichaelTYNDALL,HeadofEuropeanAutomotiveEquityResearch
uYuqianDING,HeadofChinaAutosResearch
uWesleyBROOKS,SeniorAnalyst,IndustrialsandAutos
uWillCHO,Analyst,KoreaEVBattery,AutosandTechnology
Reports
uEUAutos:GermanOEMsinChina:Downbutnotout(28-May-25)
uChinaEVandESSbattery:Batterypricesbottoming,costtailwind,tariffimpact
(15-May-25)
uEUAutosWhat’sbakedin:Lookingforclear(er)space(12-May-25)
uKoreaEVBattery1Q25review–aperiodofadjustments(30-Apr-25)
uKoreaAutos1Q25review–howtonavigateuncertainty(28-Apr-25)
uChinaElectricVehiclesShanghaiautoshowandtriptakeaways(29-Apr-25)
uTeslaInc(TSLAUS)Reduce:Promisesvs.fundamentals(23-Apr-25)
uUSAutos-Tariffshithome(OEMs)(14-Apr-25)
Webcastdetails
uWebcast(liveandreplay):
/W/10/4976706/42FEA188A34994C45E39C8FAB34F2BE0
uAvailableabout1houraftertheconclusionofthecall
uPleasetestyoursystemsettingspriortothestartofthecallbyclickingHERE
MichaelTyndall*,CFA
HeadofEuropeanAutomotiveEquityResearch
HSBCBankplc
michael.tyndall@
+442033596301
YuqianDing*
HeadofChinaAutosResearch
TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedyuqian.ding@.hk
+85222885108
WesleyBrooks,CFA
SeniorAnalyst,IndustrialsandAutos
HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.
wesley.brooks@
+12125250337
WillCho*
Analyst,KoreaEVBattery,AutosandTechnology
TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranch
will.cho@
+82237068765
*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulation
HSBCGlobalResearchPodcasts
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Findoutmore
Disclosures&Disclaimer
ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.
Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplc
ViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:
2
4▲HSBC
Equities●Automobiles
28May2025
Disclosureappendix
AnalystCertification
Thefollowinganalyst(s),economist(s),orstrategist(s)whois(are)primarilyresponsibleforthisreport,includinganyanalyst(s)whosename(s)appear(s)asauthorofanindividualsectionorsectionsofthereportandanyanalyst(s)namedasthecoveringanalyst(s)ofasubsidiarycompanyinasum-of-the-partsvaluationcertifies(y)thattheopinion(s)onthesubjectsecurity(ies)orissuer(s),anyviewsorforecastsexpressedinthesection(s)ofwhichsuchindividual(s)is(are)namedasauthor(s),andanyotherviewsorforecastsexpressedherein,includinganyviewsexpressedonthebackpageoftheresearchreport,accuratelyreflecttheirpersonalview(s)andthatnopartoftheircompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendation(s)orviewscontainedinthisresearchreport:MichaelTyndall,CFA,YuqianDing,WesleyBrooks,CFAandWillCho
Importantdisclosures
Equities:Stockratingsandbasisforfinancialanalysis
HSBCanditsaffiliates,includingtheissuerofthisreport(“HSBC”)believesaninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstancessuchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings,risktoleranceandotherconsiderationsandthatinvestorsutilisevariousdisciplinesandinvestmenthorizonswhenmakinginvestmentdecisions.Ratingsshouldnotbeusedorreliedoninisolationasinvestmentadvice.Differentsecuritiesfirmsuseavarietyofratingstermsaswellasdifferentratingsystemstodescribetheirrecommendationsandthereforeinvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsoftheratingsusedineachresearchreport.Further,investorsshouldcarefullyreadtheentireresearchreportandnotinferitscontentsfromtheratingbecauseresearchreportscontainmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalysts'viewsandthebasisfortherating.
From23rdMarch2015HSBChasassignedratingsonthefollowingbasis:
Thetargetpriceisbasedontheanalyst’sassessmentofthestock’sactualcurrentvalue,althoughweexpectittotakesixto12monthsforthemarketpricetoreflectthis.Whenthetargetpriceismorethan20%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockwillbeclassifiedasaBuy;whenitisbetween5%and20%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockmaybeclassifiedasaBuyoraHold;whenitisbetween5%belowand5%abovethecurrentshareprice,thestockwillbeclassifiedasaHold;whenitisbetween5%and20%belowthecurrentshareprice,thestockmaybeclassifiedasaHoldoraReduce;andwhenitismorethan20%belowthecurrentshareprice,thestockwillbeclassifiedasaReduce.
Ourratingsarere-calibratedagainstthesebandsatthetimeofany'materialchange'(initiationorresumptionofcoverage,changeintargetpriceorestimates).
Upside/Downsideisthepercentagedifferencebetweenthetargetpriceandtheshareprice.
Priortothisdate,HSBC’sratingstructurewasappliedonthefollowingbasis:
Foreachstockwesetarequiredrateofreturncalculatedfromthecostofequityforthatstock’sdomesticor,asappropriate,regionalmarketestablishedbyourstrategyteam.Thetargetpriceforastockrepresentedthevaluetheanalystexpectedthestocktoreachoverourperformancehorizon.Theperformancehorizonwas12months.ForastocktobeclassifiedasOverweight,thepotentialreturn,whichequalsthepercentagedifferencebetweenthecurrentsharepriceandthetargetprice,includingtheforecastdividendyieldwhenindicated,hadtoexceedtherequiredreturnbyatleast5percentagepointsoverthesucceeding12months(or10percentagepointsforastockclassifiedasVolatile*).ForastocktobeclassifiedasUnderweight,thestockwasexpectedtounderperformitsrequiredreturnbyatleast5percentagepointsoverthesucceeding12months(or10percentagepointsforastockclassifiedasVolatile*).StocksbetweenthesebandswereclassifiedasNeutral.
*Astockwasclassifiedasvolatileifitshistoricalvolatilityhadexceeded40%,ifthestockhadbeenlistedforlessthan12months(unlessitwasinanindustryorsectorwherevolatilityislow)oriftheanalystexpectedsignificantvolatility.However,stockswhichwedidnotconsidervolatilemayinfactalsohavebehavedinsuchaway.Historicalvolatilitywasdefinedasthepastmonth'saverageofthedaily365-daymovingaveragevolatilities.Inordertoavoidmisleadinglyfrequentchangesinrating,however,volatilityhadtomove2.5percentagepointspastthe40%benchmarkineitherdirectionforastock'sstatustochange.
3
4▲HSBC
Equities●Automobiles
28May2025
Ratingdistributionforlong-terminvestmentopportunities
Asof31March2025,thedistributionofallindependentratingspublishedbyHSBCisasfollows:
Buy55%(14%oftheseprovidedwithInvestmentBankingServicesinthepast12months)
Hold39%(11%oftheseprovidedwithInvestmentBankingServicesinthepast12months)
Sell6%(8%oftheseprovidedwithInvestmentBankingServicesinthepast12months)
Forthepurposesofthedistributionabovethefollowingmappingstructureisusedduringthetransitionfromtheprevioustocurrentratingmodels:underourpreviousmodel,Overweight=Buy,Neutral=HoldandUnderweight=Sell;underourcurrentmodelBuy=Buy,Hold=HoldandReduce=Sell.Forratingdefinitionsunderbothmodels,pleasesee“Stockratingsandbasisforfinancialanalysis”above.
Forthedistributionofnon-independentratingspublishedbyHSBC,pleaseseethedisclosurepageavailableat
/gbm/financial-regulation/investment-recommendations-disclosures
.
Toviewalistofalltheindependentfundamentalratings/recommendationsdisseminatedbyHSBCduringthepreceding12-monthperiod,andthelocationwherewepublishourquarterlydistributionofnon-fundamentalrecommendations(applicabletoFixedIncomeandCurrenciesresearchonly),pleaseusethefollowinglinkstoaccessthedisclosurepage:
ClientsofHSBCPrivateBanking:
/Disclosures
Allotherclients:
/A/Disclosures
HSBCanditsaffiliateswillfromtimetotimeselltoandbuyfromcustomersthesecurities/instruments,bothequityanddebt(includingderivatives)ofcompaniescoveredinHSBCResearchonaprincipaloragencybasisoractasamarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthesecurities/instrumentsmentionedinthisreport.
Analysts,economists,andstrategistsarepaidinpartbyreferencetotheprofitabilityofHSBCwhichincludesinvestmentbanking,sales&trading,andprincipaltradingrevenues.
Whether,orinwhattimeframe,anupdateofthisanalysiswillbepublishedisnotdeterminedinadvance.
Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswiththesubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.
EconomicsanctionslawsimposedbycertainjurisdictionssuchastheUS,theEU,theUK,andothers,mayprohibitpersonssubjecttothoselawsfrommakingcertaintypesofinvestments,includingbytransactingordealinginsecuritiesofparticularissuers,sectors,orregions.Thisreportdoesnotconstituteadviceinrelationtoanysuchlawsandshouldnotbeconstruedasaninducementtotransactinsecuritiesinbreachofsuchlaws.
Fordisclosuresinrespectofanycompanymentionedinthisreport,pleaseseethemostrecentlypublishedreportonthatcompanyavailableat
/research
.HSBCPrivateBankingclientsshouldcontacttheirRelationshipManagerforqueriesregardingotherresearchreports.Inordertofindoutmoreabouttheproprietarymodelsusedtoproducethisreport,pleasecontacttheauthoringanalyst.
Additionaldisclosures
1Thisreportisdatedasat28May2025.
2Allmarketdataincludedinthisreportaredatedasatclose27May2025,unlessadifferentdateand/oraspecifictimeofdayisindicatedinthereport.
3HSBChasproceduresinplacetoidentifyandmanageanypotentialconflictsofinterestthatariseinconnectionwithits
Researchbusiness.HSBC'sanalystsanditsotherstaffwhoareinvolvedinthepreparationanddisseminationof
ResearchoperateandhaveamanagementreportinglineindependentofHSBC'sInvestmentBankingbusiness.
InformationBarrierproceduresareinplacebetweentheInvestmentBanking,PrincipalTrading,andResearchbusinessestoensurethatanyconfidentialand/orpricesensitiveinformationishandledinanappropriatemanner.
4Youarenotpermittedtouse,forreference,anydatainthisdocumentforthepurposeof(i)determiningtheinterest
payable,orothersumsdue,underloanagreementsorunderotherfinancialcontractsorinstruments,(ii)determiningthepriceatwhichafinancialinstrumentmaybeboughtorsoldortradedorredeemed,orthevalueofafinancialinstrument,and/or(iii)measuringtheperformanceofafinancialinstrumentorofaninvestmentfund.
4
4▲HSBC
Production&distributiondisclosures
1.Thisreportwasproducedandsignedoffbytheauthor
2.Inordertoseewhenthisreportwasfirstdisseminated
/R/34/pMSTBJs
Equities●Automobiles
28May2025
on28May202515:41GMT.
pleaseseethedisclosurepageavailableat
5
HSBC28May2025
4Equities●Automobiles
Disclaimer
Legalentitiesasat7December2024:
HSBCBankplc;HSBCContinentalEurope;HSBCContinentalEuropeSA,Germany;HSBCBankMiddleEastLimited,DIFC;HSBCBankMiddleEastLimited,UAEbranch;HSBCYatirimMenkulDegerlerAS,Istanbul;TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,HongKong;TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SingaporeBranch;TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranch;TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulBranch;HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimited;HSBCSecurities(Taiwan)CorporationLimited;HSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(India)PrivateLimited,Mumbai;HSBCBankAustraliaLimited;HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.,NewYork;HSBCMéxico,SA,InstitucióndeBancaMúltiple,GrupoFinancieroHSBC;BancoHSBCSA
IssuerofreportHSBCBankplc
8CanadaSquare
London,E145HQ,UnitedKingdomTelephone:+442079918888
Fax:+442079924880
Website:
IntheUK,thispublicationisdistributedbyHSBCBankplcfortheinformationofitsClients(asdefinedintheRulesofFCA)andthoseofitsaffiliatesonly.NothinghereinexcludesorrestrictsanydutyorliabilitytoacustomerwhichHSBCBankplchasundertheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000orundertheRulesofFCAandPRA.ArecipientwhochoosestodealwithanypersonwhoisnotarepresentativeofHSBCBankplcintheUKwillnotenjoytheprotectionsaffordedbytheUKregulatoryregime.HSBCBankplcisregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthorityandthePrudentialRegulationAuthority.IfthisresearchisreceivedbyacustomerofanaffiliateofHSBC,itsprovisiontotherecipientissubjecttothetermsofbusinessinplacebetweentherecipientandsuchaffiliate.Thedocumentisintendedtobedistributedinitsentirety.Unlessgoverninglawpermitsotherwise,youmustcontactaHSBCGroupmemberinyourhomejurisdictionifyouwishtouseHSBCGroupservicesineffectingatransactioninanyinvestmentmentionedinthisdocument.Thisdocumentisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertopurchaseorsubscribeforanyinvestment.HSBChasbasedthisdocumentoninformationobtainedfromsourcesitbelievestobereliablebutwhichithasnotindependentlyverified;HSBCmakesnoguarantee,representationorwarrantyandacceptsnoresponsibilityorliabilityastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Theopinionscontainedwithinthereportarebaseduponpubliclyavailableinformationatthetimeofpublicationandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Fromtimetotimeresearchanalystsconductsitevisitsofcoveredissuers.HSBCpoliciesprohibitresearchanalystsfromacceptingpaymentorreimbursementfortravelexpensesfromtheissuerforsuchvisits.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformance.Thevalueofanyinvestmentorincomemaygodownaswellasupandyoumaynotgetbackthefullamountinvested.Whereaninvestmentisdenominatedinacurrencyotherthanthelocalcurrencyoftherecipientoftheresearchreport,changesintheexchangeratesmayhaveanadverseeffectonthevalue,priceorincomeofthatinvestment.Incaseofinvestmentsforwhichthereisnorecognisedmarketitmaybedifficultforinvestorstoselltheirinvestmentsortoobtainreliableinformationaboutitsvalueortheextentoftherisktowhichitisexposed.HSBCBankplcisregisteredinEnglandNo14259,isauthorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthorityandregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthorityandthePrudentialRegulationAuthorityandisamemberoftheLondonStockExchange.(070905)
IntheEuropeanEconomicArea,thispublicationhasbeendistributedbyHSBCContinentalEuropeorbysuchotherHSBCaffiliatefromwhichtherecipientreceivesrelevantservices.
InHongKong,thisdocumenthasbeendistributedbyTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedintheconductofitsHongKongregulatedbusinessfortheinformationofitsinstitutionalandprofessionalcustomers;itisnotintendedforandshouldnotbedistributedtoretailcustomersinHongKong.TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedmakesnorepresentationsthattheproductsorservicesmentionedinthisdocumentareavailabletopersonsinHongKongorarenecessarilysuitableforanyparticularpersonorappropriateinaccordancewithlocallaw.AllinquiriesbysuchrecipientsmustbedirectedtoTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited.InKorea,thispublicationisdistributedbyeitherTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranch("HBAPSLS")orTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulBranch("HBAPSEL")forthegeneralinformationofprofessionalinvestorsspecifiedinArticle9oftheFinancialInvestmentServicesandCapitalMarketsAct("FSCMA").ThispublicationisnotaprospectusasdefinedintheFSCMA.Itmaynotbefurtherdistributedinwholeorinpartforanypurpose.BothHBAPSLSandHBAPSELareregulatedbytheFinancialServicesCommissionandtheFinancialSupervisoryServiceofKorea.InSingapore,thispublicationisdistributedbyTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SingaporeBranchforthegeneralinformationofinstitutionalinvestorsorotherpersonsspecifiedinSections274and304oftheSecuritiesandFuturesAct(Chapter289)("SFA")andaccreditedinvestorsandotherpersonsinaccordancewiththeconditionsspecifiedinSections275and305oftheSFA.OnlyEconomicsorCurrenciesreportsareintendedfordistributiontoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestor,ExpertInvestororInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedinSFA.TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SingaporeBranchacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofreports.ThispublicationisnotaprospectusasdefinedintheSFA.Itmaynotbefurtherdistributedinwholeorinpartforanypurpose.TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedSingaporeBranchisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore.RecipientsinSingaporeshouldcontacta"HongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SingaporeBranch"representativeinrespectofanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwiththisreport.PleaserefertoTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedSingaporeBranch'swebsiteat.sgforcontactdetails.InAustralia,thispublicationhasbeendistributedbyTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited(ABN65117925970,AFSL301737)forthegeneralinformationofits"wholesale"customers(asdefinedintheCorporationsAct2001).Wheredistributedtoretailcustomers,thisresearchisdistributedbyHSBCBankAustraliaLimited(ABN48006434162,AFSLNo.232595).TheserespectiveentitiesmakenorepresentationsthattheproductsorservicesmentionedinthisdocumentareavailabletopersonsinAustraliaorarenecessarilysuitableforanyparticularpersonorappropriateinaccordancewithlocallaw.Noconsiderationhasbeengiventotheparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituationorparticularneedsofanyrecipient.ThispublicationhasbeendistributedinJapanbyHSBCSecurities(Japan)Co.,Ltd..Itmaynotbefurtherdistributed,inwholeorinpart,foranypurpose.
HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.acceptsresponsibilityforthecontentofthisresearchreportpreparedbyitsnon-USforeignaffiliate.Theinformationcontainedhereinisundernocircumstancestobeconstruedasinvestmentadviceandisnottailoredtotheneedsoftherecipient.AllU.S.personsreceivingand/oraccessingthisreportandwishingtoeffecttransactionsinanysecuritydiscussedhereins
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