AchievingOurSolarPVGrowthDirectorofAPAC亞太區(qū)總監(jiān)太陽能(光伏)全球電力投資中每年占最大份額年規(guī)模超5000億美元的產(chǎn)業(yè)。GLOBALSOLARCOUNCIL量74ope量74opeGW+33%20002001200220032004200520062007200820002010201120122013201420152016201720182010GLOBALSOLARCOUNCILGLOBALSOLARCOUNCILcombinedUnitedStates美國UnitedStates美國Indiaofthe10largestsolarmarketsItalyItalyNote:Percentageindicatestheshareofaggregatetop10installedcapacity.⑨SolarPowerEuropeCumulativecapacity(GW)forecastforphotovoltaics光伏的累計容量(GW)預(yù)測2025年預(yù)測：2025E-2952.5(低增長情況)2025E-2972.8(中等增長情況)2025E-3021.2(高增長案例)2030年預(yù)測：2030E-6278.7(低增長情況)2030E-6708.1(中等增長情況)2030E-7164(高增長情況)2035年預(yù)測：2035E-9845.1(低增長情況)況)2035E-12207.6(高增長情況)Source:BNEFAnnualnew光伏年度新增量2025年預(yù)測：2025E-681.42025E-701.82025E-750.22030年預(yù)測：2030E-698.92030E-796.52030E-905.12035年預(yù)測：2035E-740.52035E-9102035E-1083.8PV(Gw)forecast(GW)預(yù)測(中等增長案例)歐盟光伏市場十年來首次出現(xiàn)收縮EU-27annualso2017201820192020202120222023neededtoreach2030target 80804020039%33%28%202140%35%30%37%30%28%2022202344%36%202453%2025Source:SolarPowerEuropeThefuturedevelopmentmomentumofhouseholdandcentralizedisexpectedtopick戶用和集中式未來發(fā)展勢頭預(yù)計到2030年回升EU-27annualsolarPV34.7CAGR0.4%35.4CAGR0.6%30.431.4302520252026202820292030Rooftop20252026Utility-scale南美洲三大主要光伏市場概覽截止2024年阿根廷裝機容量份額OtherSolarfossilfuelsWindOtherSolarfossilfuelsWindCoalCoalHydroHydroGasBioenergyNucl截止2025年7月巴西的裝機容量OtherOtherfossilfuelsCoal3.3%ImportsBioenergyWindySolar截止2024年墨西哥裝機容量份額SolarOtherOtherfossilfuelsWindHydro90.6GWotherrenewables4%Nuclear2024非洲新增光伏安裝量2023,20245%,5%,RestofAfrica3%,ZamblaRepubllcSouthAfrica3,076MWSouthAfricaY2024Y202329%,Egypt3%,NigerlaBurkinaFaso4%,Ghana-PhotovoltaicInstallationForecastinAfricaMW2025-2028非洲光伏安裝預(yù)測2025-2028年MW1000080998000600040002000002025e2026e2027e-C&1工商業(yè)expectedgrowthIngenerationThebottlenecksgeneration光伏發(fā)電的瓶頸inphotovoltaicpowerhusreslsmihermitentpowersupply,necessitatingrelianceonenergystorageorbackuppowersourcestocompensateforgenerationgaps.ComparisonbetweenPVOutputCurveandLoadCurveUnit:puPVOutputLoadCurveCurve0.61357911131517192123M波動性MThistriggersvoltageflickerandfrequencysafeoperationofthepowersystem.safeoperationofthepowersystem.運行Unit:kwhPowerperkwCapacityUnit:kwh電網(wǎng)沖突7hsresultsimnewprojectsbeingunabletoconnecttothegridorfacingoutputrestrictions.Grid-ConnectedPVsystem光伏的下一個轉(zhuǎn)折點MainFunctions光伏+儲能解決方案主要功能disturbancreduction擾LoadCurveOptimization負(fù)載曲線優(yōu)化Delay延遲電網(wǎng)投資AbsorptionOffsetReduction改善PV間歇性和優(yōu)化消納和減少棄波動性emand用戶電自用&降本PriceArbitrage峰谷價套利fthemarketandsignalthatstoragehasbecomestrategic.性。TheUK'sCleanEnergy2030ActionPlanaimstoincreasetheActionPlanaimstoincreasecapacityby23-27Gwby2030.政府的《清潔能源2030行動計劃》旨在到2030年將國家電池存儲容量增加23-27吉瓦。2025CAGR2029CAGRCumulativeInstalledCapacity41%72%累計裝機容量 72%45%399292201919161682022022022023024022022022028029儲能系統(tǒng)(BESS)市場趨勢為350GWhSource:BNEFGlobalBESSTargetsvsProjection全球BESS目標(biāo)與預(yù)測800600800600400Installafionvs2030TargetvsProjections(GW)20086201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024·1,5002030GlobalESSTarget**2030Source:BESSrequirementsfromIEA(scenaniobased)andBNEF,GSCMarketInteligence*Toreachnetzeroby2050,IEANZEscenario"ApledgebyG7andCOPpresidency,itincludes1.2TWtromBESSandrestofthecapacityfromotherESSSource:BNEFProjection全球BESS目標(biāo)與預(yù)測201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024KeyDriversofBESSAdoption部署B(yǎng)ESS的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動因素·Governmentpolicies,incentives,andregulatoryreforms政府政策、激勵措施achievetechnological·ProcessimprovementsReal2024$/KWhPackCell806PackCell80671525323046335697553485310259201320202018826679573320192014201520172016218Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Historicalpriceshavebeenupdatedtoreflectreal2024dollars.Weightedstationarystorage. andmaintainsystems安coUNC10GWofBESShasflattenedcoUNCationJuneationJuneCALIFORNIA三中千過剩的電力由儲能吸收，傍晚用電則由儲存的太陽能供給，實現(xiàn)“鴨子曲線”平滑。GLOBALSOLARCOUNCIL我們?nèi)绾瓮七M光協(xié)同發(fā)展?Globalrisks&challenges,GSC'ssolutions全球風(fēng)險與挑戰(zhàn)GSC的應(yīng)對方案解決方案解決方案RISKS_&Challenges風(fēng)險和挑戰(zhàn)MarketdesignpolicyNationalassociation食$Highcostoffinance融資成本過高Utilityscaleincidprice碳足跡和可回收TraceabilityandESG可追溯性和Eackofnationalcapitaladvocacy缺少資本倡導(dǎo)$Solar+Storagecanreduce:光伏+儲能可使歐盟成本降低近4%Solar+Storagecanreduce:光伏+儲能可使歐盟成本降低近4%2024·全球BESS裝機容量：從2013年的0.4GW增至2024年約155GW·69Gwaddedin2024;2025newrecord(~350GWh)2024年新增69GW;2025年預(yù)計創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄(~350Gwh)SMASMA3TW可再生能源項目建設(shè)recommendations-frominvestinginsuper-gridsandregionalinterconnections,toscalinggrid-formingtechnologies,reformingmarkets,andensuringcommunitiesarepartofthetransition.全球太陽能理事會(GSC)全新《電網(wǎng)與儲能立場文件》提出了面向現(xiàn)代電網(wǎng)的大膽、可落地的愿景，旨在充分釋放光伏+儲能的潛力。文件提出了若干核心建議：·推廣網(wǎng)架形成型技術(shù)(grid-forming·Policypathwaystoofcapital5%,every-where資本成本從50%降低到CostofCapitalforSolarProjects■CostofDebt(%)■RequiredrteurnonEquity(%)Souree:OECDEnvironmentWorkingPapor#245,uly2024;RatingbyS&PBBB-BBB-cCC.GermanyChiteMoroccoIndiaBrazitS.AfricaGhanaTanzaniaNigeriaUgandaZambiaWOVKIng6OToWCYEAeCOSTOTcapTcaIfinance.7millionsolarjobsworldwide全球擁有700萬個太GlobalSolarTrainingInitiativeInpartnershipwith:GLOBALWINDORGAN