ProblemSolvingApproachApril23,20XXIllustrate

anddiscuss

howastrategyconsultantsolves

problems,

including1.Threethinking

styles?Critical

thinking/批判思維?Logical

thinking/邏輯思維?Hypothesis

thinking/預(yù)設(shè)思維2.

Problemsolving

approachProblem

Solving

Approach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptx

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1Today'sagendaProblemsolvingapproachAttitudeStructureSpeedBasicelementsforsuperiorproblemsolvingProblem

Solving

Approach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptx

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2ProblemsolvingskillsHypothes

isthinkingLog

ica

lthinkingCrit

ica

lthinkingCriticalthinkingDraft—fordiscussiononly

3AgendaProblem

SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptxCritical

thinking

(Reflective

thinking)二VS.Un-reflectivethinkingAkindofevaluativethinkingJumptotheconclusion,

oracceptsomeevidenceorargument

at

facevalue,without

reallythinkingabout

itIt

involves

bothcriticismand

creativethinkingBe

honestwithyourself:

"whatI

knowabout"vs.

"what

I

don't

knowabout",

beforegivingyour

opinionsWhat's

critical

thinking-

it's

an

attitudeProblem

Solving

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4LogicalthinkingDraft—fordiscussiononly

5AgendaProblem

SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptxExploretherootcause!StructurethemessagesCausalityLogicalstructureTwopurposesforlogical

thinkingProblem

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6You

kickmy

buttIfeel

hurtCausality

istherelationshipbetweencauseand

effectProblem

Solving

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7CauseEffectSweetspotCauseProblem

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8SymptomFellasleep

in

anair-conditionedroomLiketowatchlate

nightshowsIllustrationofCausalityw

swwTooshallow(Doesn'tsolvethe

problemcompletelySetthe

roomtemperaturehigherBuya

TivoExample

FixHumanbeingsare

tooweakToo

deep

(Hardtofix)Catchinga

cold

Change

DNAHavinga

feverAspirin123#ofkidsemployees

haveThemore

kidsyou

have,themore

moneyyou

make?Problem

Solving

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9150100500Annualsalary(ThousandUSD)ExampleMoresenior,highertherankMoresalaryMore

kidsLogicfallacy(1):the

hidden3rdfactorProblem

Solving

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10Inorderto

learnEnglish,

I

needtowork

in

US!Mr.Xworksin

USfor3yearsand

his

English

is

good!MsZworksin

USfor5yearsand

her

English

is

good!Mr.Yworksin

USfor4yearsandhis

English

isgood!Yougetto

learngood

English

ifworkingin

US...Problem

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11ExampleSpeakinggood

English

is

pre-requisitetoworkin

USTherefore,Mr.Xgetstowork

in

USTherefore,MsZgetstowork

in

USTherefore,Mr.Ygetstowork

in

USLogicfallacy(2):reversingcause

and

effectMr.X'sEnglish

is

good!MsZs

Englishis

good!Mr.Y's

Englishisgood!Problem

Solving

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12ABCpart-time

studentThemanagerfoundoutthatitwasapart-timestudenthandlingthecall.part-timestudentpart-timestudentAndhence,he

decided

not

to

usepart-timestudentsanymore...Oneday,anangrycustomerfiledaseriouscomplainttoCompanyABConits

lousycustomerservice.Acomplaintfromanangrycustomer...Draft—fordiscussiononly

13Problem

SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptxExampleThecustomerwasangryPoorcustomerservicemanagement,e.g.incentivesnot

closelylinkedwith

KPI,etc.Thecustomerfiled

complaintsPoorcustomerserviceprovidedbya

part-time

studentLackofattentionfrommanagementoncustomerservicesProblem

Solving

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14Logicfallacy(3):the

laststrawTherefore,

IamcatAllcats

havefour

legsI

havefourlegsCommon

logicfallacies(4):sameattributes,sameobjectsProblem

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15A

CBCA=

BLow-endmodelsare

sold

well

intier4cities

in

ChinaHighendmodelswon't

sell

intier4cities

in

ChinaProblem

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16Common

logicfallacies(5)A

B~A

~BStructurethemessagesExploretherootcause!CausalityLogicalstructureTwopurposesforlogical

thinkingProblem

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17

MECE

—≥

MECE

Problem

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18Goodlogicalstructure=

PyramidstructureCause(Fact

base)Face

base

in

the

bottomOnemessage,one

boxOpinionsabovefactMECESame

logic

levelEffect(Opinions)Sowhat?Whyso?132baseThisis

NOTa

message

XTooexpensive2012revenueCut

costLauncha

pilotThis

isa

messageYoushouldenterChinesemarket20%ofyour

R&D

projectswerenot

commercializedAmessage

needstoa

"sentence",nota

noun

neither

averbBUX

hasbeenlost

moneyfor5

consecutive

yearsProblem

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19Onemessage,

one

box1ExampleRedcolor

is

popularYou

needtosetup

a

JV

ifenteringChinamarketChinaGDP

is$5T

in201220%ofcustomersbuyproduct

AandBat

the

same

timexxx3outof

10factories

inthistownwentbankruptHumanbeingscannot

live

foreverAstatementsupportedby

bothsolidquantitativeandqualitativeresearch?

VeryfewexceptionsAstatementbyexhaustivequantitativedata,orverylongtermobservation?

NoexceptionTypeSomeone'sperceptionSomeone'sobservationPublicdata/researchGeneralizedfactsbasedonsurveydataorstatisticsCrucialtodifferentiatefactsfromopinionsIdealfactbaseforconsultantsFactsDraft—fordiscussiononlyProblem

SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptxOpinions220Nogaps,

no

overlapsMECE:

Mutuallyexclusive,collectivelyexhaustiveProblem

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21What's

MECE

What's

NOT

MECECustomerSeniorOLHumanMaleFemaleTeenagers3CustomerMaleTip:Avoiddifferent

logic

levelatthesame

layerProblem

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22Same

logic

level

Different

logic

levelHumanMaleFemaleJuniorfemaleSenior

female3MalediesFemalediesHumanbeing

diesProblem

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23Induction3Humanbeing

diesYouarea

human

beingYou

dieProblem

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24Deduction3Autoco.shouldenterLaosmarketimmediatelyAutomarket

in

Laoswill

takeoffnextyearIttakes~1yearfor

Autoco.

toset

upa

new

marketAutomarketwilltake

offoncetheGDP/capitareaches

US

$3,000Laosis

aboutto

reach$3,000GDP/capitanextyearIttook~12

monthstosetupthe

market

incountry

YIttook~11

monthstosetupthe

market

incountryXProblem

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25Exampleofan

idealstructure...TheChinese

market

is

attractiveYou

needtoenterChinaCommon

logicfallacies(6):wind-belllogicProblem

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26Logicalstructurecan

be

usedonmakingstatements

oraskingquestions(a.k.a.

issuetrees)Howtosetup

the

channels?Howto

producetheproducts?Howtopricethe

products?Howtoadvertisetheproducts?StatementInductiveAre

product

A

available

instoreforcustomerswhowantto

buy

it?Arecustomersknowingproduct

Ainterestedinbuyingproduct

A?Arecustomersawareofproduct

A?Howto

entera

market?Humanwill

dieWoman

will

dieManwill

dieHumanwill

dieWoman

will

dieManwill

dieWhycan'tproduct

Asell?Draft—fordiscussiononly

27MECEMECEIssuetreesProblem

SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptxWhytreeHowtreeDeductiveHypothesisthinkingDraft—fordiscussiononly

28AgendaProblem

SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptxHypothesis

thinkingAthinkingstylethatforcesyoutohypothesizetheproblemortheanswerfirstandtakeactionstoprove/disprovetheit?Youalways

needtohavea

tentative

answer,

evenwith

limited

infoIthelpsconsultantsfocusresourcesonwhat'srelevantand

hencedeliver

resultsmuchmoreefficientlyAcoreskillthatallBCGconsultantswouldbeforcedtopick

upfrom

day

oneHypothesisTentativedescriptionforaproblemorananswerThebestguessbasedonyour

current

knowledgeNeedstobe

provenright

orwrongHypothesisvs.

hypothesisthinkingProblem

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29Hypothesis

onsolutions“解決本酒店財務(wù)困境的方式是找到有名的主廚”“以現(xiàn)在的時機(jī)，進(jìn)中國市場要從三線市場開始”“我認(rèn)為公司應(yīng)採全職的店員，提升對產(chǎn)品的知識，

才能確保對客戶服務(wù)的品質(zhì)，增加店內(nèi)的營收”Hypothesis

on

problems“我認(rèn)為少子化的根源問題出在女性投入職場的不

足”“我認(rèn)為人才外流的主要原因在於22K政策”Hypothesiscould

beforproblemsorsolutionsProblem

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30?

隨著資料收集與分析，假說不斷進(jìn)化?

隨時都有更新進(jìn)度

可以討論與報告假說思考與傳統(tǒng)Boiltheocean方式比較假說Problem

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31Boil

the

ocean

Hypothesis

thinking?

期待deadline要到時能夠神來一筆

?

常常無法如期所願?

大量閱讀資料?

從第一天開始建假說假說?

沒有問題意識完成度完成度立假說DeadlineDeadline時間時間假說?1.

訪談2.到現(xiàn)場實(shí)地走訪3.

討論4.

文獻(xiàn)檢索5.

分析6.

一人獨(dú)想Problem

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32建立假說常用方式Good

example

Brokenlink

betweensales

planandexecutionTheskillsofthehighperformingsalesweren'tsharedamongthesales

groupWithscreenprocess

likebeingdoneatCompanyX,you

canimproveyour

hit

rate

significantlyThereisan

issue

on

sales

managementNewsalesreps

do

not

have

rightskillsWeakproductdevelopmentprocessescomparedwith

competitorXSpecificLinktoactionsCan

be

provenProblem

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33Goodvs.bad

hypothesisRequirement

ofgood

hypothesisBadexampleDiscussionDiscussionwithclientsExpertinterviewsDiscussionwithcustomersAnalysisEconomicsSurveyanalysisROIExperimentPilotTestmarketingExamplesWaystovalidatethe

hypothesesProblem

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34What'syourhypothesisonthe

key

issuesyourclient

isfacingwith?Problem

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35Discussionquestion問題解決法

(ProblemSolvingApproach)Draft—fordiscussiononly

36AgendaProblem

SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptxRuleof20/80

?80%ofsurfacedissues(symptoms)

drivenby20%ofkeydrivers

(root

causes)?

Evenforthemostcomplexissues,therewon'tbemorethanthree

root

causesComment?

Ifyou

cannotsolvea

problem,itmeansyou

areintellectually

lazy?Problem

solvers'value

added

comes

frombothidentifyingright

issues(root

causes)aswellasfindingsolutionsThreekey

beliefsforprofessional

problemsolversEverythingyouseeissymptom

(問題表象),

not

rootcause(問題本質(zhì))?Clientcomestoyou

becausetheydon't

see

theroot

causesKey

beliefNoproblem

is

unsolvableProblem

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37123第一步：定義問題(Define)第二步：提出方案(Solve)第三步：溝通

(Communicate)第四部：實(shí)施(Implementation)Today'sfocusProblem

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38策略顧問常用的問題解決方式（Problemsolvingapproach）討論與進(jìn)化(Discussandevolve)評估選項(xiàng)(Evaluateoptions)組成實(shí)施團(tuán)隊(duì)

(Formtheteam)架構(gòu)論述(Makethestory)確認(rèn)問題(Confirmproblems)提出選項(xiàng)(Generateoptions)擬定實(shí)施計畫(Developimplementationplan)簡報(Present)挖掘本質(zhì)(Identifyrootcauses)驗(yàn)證與修正(Validateandrevise)決定建議(Proposerecommendations)執(zhí)行與修正(Executeand

revise)J第一步：定義問題Draft—fordiscussiononly

39AgendaProblem

SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptx菲律賓海防槍殺臺灣漁民?家暴？確認(rèn)問題What

istheproblem?Problem

Solving

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40少子化？人才外流？However,

notall

problemsare

real

problems.Professionalswill

identifythe

right

problemtosolve

Problem

isthegapbetweencurrentstatusand

idealsituation

IdealsituationGap=

problemProblem

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41Currentstatus可有效達(dá)成問題陳述起點(diǎn)

Problemstatement1陳述為真?True?是2目的為何？

Objective?解決問題目的誰的問題？Whose3

problem?(Whydo

Icare?)關(guān)鍵人的問題值得探討的問題Relevantproblems確認(rèn)問題

Confirmtherelevanceofproblemsviathree

questions:T.O.W.

修正或重新定義問題Fine-tuneorredefineproblems否

解決問題對達(dá)成目的不一定有幫助Problem

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42非關(guān)鍵人

的問題確認(rèn)問題利用確認(rèn)問題來修正問題追究點(diǎn)?本數(shù)字可信度？?是否有人才回流？?維持甚麼競爭力？?此競爭力需要什麼人才？?

這種人才也有大量外流的

趨勢嗎？?

人才外流對臺灣企業(yè)競爭

力影響有多大？?

全國人民是你的關(guān)鍵服務(wù)

對象（Stakeholder）嗎？?

還有沒有其他stakeholder？他們的關(guān)

心點(diǎn)一致嗎？可能初步答案是的，因?yàn)閾?jù)統(tǒng)計，每年有

約50萬人口到外地工作為了維持臺灣企業(yè)的競爭力全國人民的問題最後，問題可能修正為：我國高科技高級技術(shù)人才近年來被中國與新加坡大量挖角，

已經(jīng)造成關(guān)鍵技術(shù)外流，嚴(yán)重影響臺灣關(guān)鍵高科技企業(yè)的競爭力陳述為真？(True?)目的為何？(Objectives?)誰的問題？(Whoseproblem?)我國人才大量外流Problem

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43原本問題陳述

確認(rèn)問題事項(xiàng)Why,why,why議題樹(Issuetree)假說思考(Hypothesisthinking)發(fā)掘本質(zhì)顧問常用發(fā)掘問題本質(zhì)的手法Problem

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44結(jié)果人才利用法律漏洞，持續(xù)流失薪酬仍遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不足競爭對手，仍然

阻止不了人才流失企業(yè)投入資源申請科專補(bǔ)助，而

非思考本質(zhì)創(chuàng)新有效讓製造業(yè)性質(zhì)的企業(yè)與創(chuàng)新

導(dǎo)向的公司分開，各自發(fā)展，提

供了高級技術(shù)人才的發(fā)揮空間與激勵制度解決強(qiáng)迫競業(yè)條款規(guī)定最低報酬利用科專（?？钛a(bǔ)助創(chuàng)新專案），

鼓勵企業(yè)創(chuàng)新利用稅賦制度，鼓勵企業(yè)設(shè)置創(chuàng)

業(yè)基金，在既有企業(yè)外獎勵創(chuàng)業(yè)問題高級技術(shù)人才被中星挖角

Why?臺灣高科技公司無法提供高級技術(shù)人才合理報酬

Why?臺灣高科技公司固守本業(yè)，創(chuàng)新能量不足，導(dǎo)致組織僵化沒空間

讓人才升官

Why?經(jīng)營者拘泥於製造業(yè)心態(tài)，過於

成本考量，不願也不懂如何對創(chuàng)新投資發(fā)掘本質(zhì)用連問"Why,why,why?"，發(fā)掘問題本質(zhì)表象根源Problem

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45發(fā)掘本質(zhì)利用議題樹尋找問題本質(zhì)：Whytree注意MECE原則為何高級技術(shù)人才被中星挖角？是否薪酬太低？是否發(fā)揮空間有限？是否工作環(huán)境太差？是否憂心公司發(fā)展前景？Problem

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46是否固定薪資太低？是否績效獎金太低？是否股票太少？是否不認(rèn)同公司核心事業(yè)的前景？是否擔(dān)心公司沒有能力開發(fā)新事業(yè)？是否辦公室太過老舊或壅擠？是否同事素質(zhì)太低？是否老闆太過無能？是否公司限制太多？進(jìn)化假說進(jìn)化假說因?yàn)榕_灣公

司老闆固守

製造心態(tài)，只顧成本W(wǎng)hy?發(fā)掘本質(zhì)利用假說思考也是一個探求問題本質(zhì)的方式初始假說

因?yàn)榕_灣公司缺乏創(chuàng)新，沒有空間給人才發(fā)揮與升遷Problem

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47

因?yàn)樾劫Y太低引發(fā)高端人才流失工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)訪談團(tuán)隊(duì)討論文獻(xiàn)檢索現(xiàn)場參訪完成度Why?時間如何證明?

訪談被挖角人士?針對高級技術(shù)人才做問卷調(diào)查?

訪談被挖角公司人資高管?研究被挖角公司，觀察是否缺乏創(chuàng)

新，是否組織、高管變動小，下面

人才向上空間不大?訪談其員工，了解主要不滿?針對被挖角公司，了解該經(jīng)營者對

創(chuàng)新的態(tài)度，過去所採取的相關(guān)行動與投資?訪談其員工，了解他們對經(jīng)營者在

創(chuàng)新上面的看法驗(yàn)證與修正有必要驗(yàn)證問題本質(zhì)的假說如果有誤，要修正該假說高級技術(shù)人才被中星挖角臺灣高科技公司固守本業(yè)，創(chuàng)新能量不足，導(dǎo)致組織僵化，沒空間讓人才升官臺灣高科技公司無法提供

高級技術(shù)人才合理報酬經(jīng)營者拘泥於製造業(yè)心態(tài)，

過於成本考量，不願也不懂如何對創(chuàng)新投資Key

driver?

bKey

driver?

b1.發(fā)揮20/80法則下面一層是否是主要

造成上面一層的原因？2.有可能有複數(shù)原因（但很少超過三個）表象根源Problem

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48Keydriver?ConfirmproblemsIdentifyrootcausesWhat'stherootcause?True?What'stheobjective?Whoseproblem?(Whydo

Icare?)Source?

Observations

?

Requests?

Arguments

?Problem

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49小結(jié)：發(fā)現(xiàn)本質(zhì)問題的方式EffectCause?Why?Starting

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SolvingApproach_NCCU_CC_23APR14.pptx

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50Discussionquestion前政務(wù)委員、臺大社會系教授薛承泰日前在一場演講中指出，大學(xué)校園中臺灣學(xué)生和大陸學(xué)生間的競爭力落差，

「比大陸1,000顆飛彈瞄準(zhǔn)臺灣更驚悚」。這一席談話凸顯出近年來國人憂心兩岸人才

競爭力快速消長對臺灣的不利影響，有必要深入探討其原因，並速謀補(bǔ)救之道。根據(jù)薛承泰教授的分析，臺灣大學(xué)生競爭力不及陸生，主要?dú)w因於以下因素：第一，出生人口從民

國65年42.5萬人高峰遽降至近年20萬人上下，大學(xué)學(xué)齡人口減少逾半，但大學(xué)院校卻不斷擴(kuò)充，因