報告作者介紹薛露露|高級研究員，世界資源研究所可持續(xù)轉型中心續(xù)轉型中心版面設計作者感謝為本研究提供支持與專業(yè)洞見的有關專家，以及為本文的撰寫提供寶貴專業(yè)）：中國環(huán)境科學研究院機動車排污監(jiān)控中心中國汽車技術研究中心有限公司北京科技大學華南理工大學加州大學戴維斯分校世界資源研究所世界資源研究所世界資源研究所世界資源研究所上述專家的審閱意見僅代表其對本文的學術性把關，并不代表完全認同本文內容。對于本文的任何錯誤和疏漏，相關責任皆由作者承擔。感謝世界資源研究所方莉博士、劉哲博士、苗紅在報告撰寫過程中提供的寶貴意見與陳軻、薛露露.2025."駛向2035：中國新能源重卡在區(qū)域與長途運輸場景中的推廣潛力研究"報告.北京：世界資43第三章.無政策情景的研究結論57第四章.現(xiàn)有政策情景的研究結論69第五章.強化政策情景的研究結論78上述研究結論對政策力度的設106參考文獻預測，為新能源重卡推廣目標設定與政策制定提供亮點.亮點...在本文所評估的政策中，道路通行費減免對提升.評估其對財政收入的潛在影響，可探索差異化收..關于本研究為減少碳排放和空氣污染物，推廣新能源重卡至關重要。2021—2024年間，中國新能源重卡的市場滲透率（即新上升至14%。截至2024年底，新能源重卡市場滲透率達到成本持續(xù)優(yōu)化，新能源重卡有望進一步擴展至重卡最主要的應用場景——區(qū)域運輸場景與長途運輸場景（CATARC2017）。為實現(xiàn)新能源重卡在更廣泛場景中的推廣，中國需建立明確的推廣目標并構建系統(tǒng)的政策體系（ChenandXue2024;Al-Alawietal.2022）。設立新能源重卡的推廣目標并出臺配套政策，能夠帶來諸多益處，如為行業(yè)提供穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展預期，吸引相關產(chǎn)業(yè)與基礎設施投資，促進新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展，助力國家實現(xiàn)氣候目標，以及減少空氣污本研究旨在探討近期（2035年前）需求側政策如何促進新能源重卡在區(qū)域運輸場景與長途運輸場景中的推廣。在場景選擇方面，本研究聚焦于區(qū)域運輸場景和長途運輸場景，不僅因為它們是重卡的主要應用場景，也由源重卡在這些場景中仍面臨推廣挑戰(zhàn)。在車型方面，本研究關注半掛牽引車與重型載貨汽車，因為二者在上述場景中保有量最高。在技術路徑方面，本研究僅關注純電動汽卡運營主體是個體司機和掛靠司機（TUC2022本文將其納入分析框架，以小微運輸企業(yè)視角評估新能源重卡的推廣潛力。重卡在區(qū)域運輸場景與長途運輸場景中的市場滲透率（見圖ES-1柴油重卡的資本支出增量所對應的成本回收期（payback分別預測新能源重卡的市場滲透率：模型一為美國環(huán)保署（EPA）基于新能源重卡成本回收期構建的市場滲透率對應關系（EPA2024a本文對其進行了中國本土化修正；模型二為TransTEC離散選擇模型（ECDSCUT2024該模型以新能源重卡TCO為變量預測市場滲透率。在測算新能源重卡的成本回收期與TCO過程中，本研究識別并量質量損失等非成本因素，以全面反映運輸企業(yè)（尤其是小微運輸企業(yè)）的采購決策考量。文構建了兩類政策情景（見表ES-1第一類為現(xiàn)有政策情景，涵蓋“以舊換新”補貼與新能源汽車車輛購置稅減免等卡道路通行費減免、充電基礎設施加速部署等。在此基礎新能源技術迭代不確定性、油價/電價不確定性及政策力度變化等對近期新能源重卡推廣的影響。圖ES-1I本研究的方法框架??分場景新能源重卡關鍵參數(shù)配置?新能源重卡購置的決策變量?載質量損失、充電時間成本和里程焦慮?新能源重卡成本回收期、TCO和市場滲透率?情景預測與不確定性分析?無政策情景?現(xiàn)有政策情景?強化政策情景而續(xù)航里程較長純電動重卡僅需夜間在私人貨運場站或公共夜間充電系統(tǒng)進行單次充電。#ES-1'關于本研究各情景的核心假設無政策情景無政策情景現(xiàn)有政本情景分別評估以下政策的單獨作用及其疊加效應：計總質量補貼擔保在現(xiàn)有政策情景的基礎上，本研究進一步設定政府部門為新能源重卡提供不低于零售價說明：在強化政策情景中，藍色字體情景被定義為核心政策情景，其余情景均歸類為政策不確定性分析，旨在評估政策力度變化對政策效果的影響。主要研究結論本文測算了MY2025—2035期間，新能源重卡在區(qū)域運輸場景與長途運輸場景中的成本回收期、TCO與市場滲透回收成本。場滲透率在MY2030前有望達到2%～17%的水平；但長途運輸場景中，新能源重卡的推廣在MY2035前僅處于起步在區(qū)域與長途運輸場景中，新能源半掛牽引車的推廣潛力明顯高于新能源重型載貨汽車。這主要是因為新能源載貨汽車與柴油載貨汽車之間有更大的TCO成本差：一方面，新能源重型載貨汽車的載質量損失問題比新能源半掛牽引車成本也低于柴油半掛牽引車，進一步增加了新能源重型載貨汽車推廣的難度。第二，本研究評估的現(xiàn)行政策能有效提升新能源重卡市場滲透率，尤其對區(qū)域運輸場景中年行駛里程較長的純電動在現(xiàn)有政策中，“以舊換新”補貼對縮短新能源重卡成車輛購置稅減免和氫燃料電池汽車示范城市群補貼的作用值得注意的是，現(xiàn)行“以舊換新”補貼與車輛購置稅減免政策將于2028年前到期，而屆時新能源重卡TCO仍可能處于較高水平。若缺乏后續(xù)政策支持，其市場滲透率可能出顯著提升新能源重卡在區(qū)域運輸場景中的市場滲透率；而在長途運輸場景中，則需要更強有力且持續(xù)的政策支可在MY2035前達到一定的市場滲透率。具體而言：輸場景中的市場滲透率呈現(xiàn)強勁增長——預計在MY2027—在強化政策推動下，新能源重卡在長途運輸場景中的其顯著增長主要出現(xiàn)在MY2032—2035間（見圖ES-4）。這表明針對長途運輸?shù)恼咧С挚赡苄璩掷m(xù)至2035年左右才顯效。圖ES-2I現(xiàn)有政策情景下新能源重卡的市場滲透率（區(qū)域運輸場景，MY圖ES-2I現(xiàn)有政策情景下新能源重卡的市場滲透率（區(qū)域運輸場景，MY2024—20圖ES-3I強化政策情景下新能源半掛牽引車的市場滲透率（區(qū)域運輸場景，MY2025—2030）圖ES-4I強化政策情景下新能源半掛牽引車的市場滲透率（長途運輸場景，MY2030—2035）第四，強化政策的效果因政策力度不同而有所差異（見圖ES-3和圖ES-4）。例如，若將高速公路通行費減免幅度從15%提高至50%（對應情景Road_charge_50%該措施將超響上述新能源重卡市場滲透率的結論。首先，運營不確定性（如年行駛里程、日行駛里程、貨物類型和時效性要求等）會導致新能源重卡滲透率產(chǎn)生較大波動。例如，在無政策情景下，MY2030區(qū)域運輸場景中新能源重卡的市場滲透率因運營差異可能在1%～48%區(qū)間浮動。其次，純電動重卡推廣還受車輛能耗、電池成本、柴油價格及充電成本等參數(shù)擾動。例如，在現(xiàn)有政策情景下，上述參數(shù)±10%的變化可能使MY2027區(qū)域運輸場景中新能源重卡的市場滲透率在政策啟示第一，國家層面可考慮制定分場景、分車型的新能源重于不同場景與貨車車型的市場滲透率差異顯著，目標設置應近期，新能源重卡在區(qū)域運輸場景中具備較大推廣潛力，尤其是半掛牽引車，可考慮設定較高的2030年目標。具體而言，若充電基礎設施能夠及時就位（Accel_charge情景2030年區(qū)域運輸場景中新能源半掛牽引車的市場滲圖ES-5IAccel_charge情景下新能源半掛牽引車的市場滲透率（區(qū)域運輸場景，MY2025-2035）仍處于起步期，2030年前可設定較低目標，2035年則可適度上調目標（特別是針對新能源半掛牽引車）。具體而言，隨著充電基礎設施不斷完善（Accel_charge情景2035年長途運輸場景中新能源半掛牽引車的市場滲透率預計可達考慮到運營、技術和油價/電價等因素的不確定性對障推廣目標實現(xiàn)：出臺新能源重卡能量消耗量標準；打擊非法黑加油站，降低柴油補貼或稅費優(yōu)惠；建立關鍵原材料與氫能的期貨交易市場；針對交通燃料引入碳定價機制（OIES2024;MPPetal.2022;Yang2020）。charge_100%對新能源重卡的推廣效果基本相當。這說明，僅實施部分道路通行費減免，即可有效推動新能源重卡的普及。路通行費減免政策的實際可行性。同時，可參考歐盟基于碳排放的道路收費機制（EU2022對不同排放水平的貨車實施差異化費率，以彌補道路養(yǎng)護資金可能出現(xiàn)的缺口。第三，重卡專用公共快充網(wǎng)絡的加速建設與夜間充電成本的降低，是本研究中效果第二顯著且不可或缺的政策措（Accel_DCFC，即2035年實現(xiàn)全國100%覆蓋）與降低夜間充電成本（Accel_depot，2024—2035年間貨運場站及公共夜間充電站的充電成本為0.6元/千瓦時二者組合實施這表明，在制定充電基礎設施相關政策時，不僅需優(yōu)先加快高速公路及國（省）道沿線重卡專用公共充電站和走廊的建設，還需確保貨運場站、物流樞紐的公共夜間充電系統(tǒng)能提供低成本的充電服務。.Accel_charge（即Accel_DCFC和Accel_depot兩.第五，激勵政策的效果因貨車車型（及應用場景）不同而存在差異。在近期，新能源半掛牽引車具備較大的推廣區(qū)域運輸場景為例，由于純電動半掛牽引車與柴油車型之間的成本差距較小，同等政策對其市場滲透率的提升作用更為突出。相比之下，新能源載貨汽車需額外政策支持：純電動載貨汽車因載質量損失比純電動半掛牽引車更顯著，更需要提高最大設計總質量；氫燃料電池載貨汽車由于與柴油車型的購置成本差距更大，需要比氫燃料電池半掛牽引車更高額統(tǒng)計體系與分析方法。準確掌握現(xiàn)有重卡的行駛里程、載質量分布及按場景的銷量等數(shù)據(jù)，對制定有效政策和推動產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)同至關重要。在中國，為監(jiān)管超速和超時工作，交通運輸部等部門（2014）已要求所有重卡安裝全球定位系統(tǒng)（GPS這為采集相關運營數(shù)據(jù)奠定了基礎。為進一步推廣新能源重卡，建議相關部門系統(tǒng)收集并分析按場景與車型分類的運營數(shù)據(jù)，并將分析結果與關鍵利益相關方（如充電設施運營商等）共享，以支持精準政策制定與基礎設施協(xié)同規(guī)劃。.Accel_MCS（到2035年實現(xiàn)兆瓦級充電站與公共快.購置補貼與加氫補貼均具有重要作用；2030年后，加氫的地區(qū)，則可以降低對兩類補貼的依賴。隨著氫燃料電地區(qū)外，購置補貼（FCET_purchase）與加氫補貼（H2_subsidy）對提升氫燃料電池重卡在區(qū)域運輸場景和長途運輸場景中的市場滲透率均不可或缺。在中長期（MY2030后隨著氫燃料電池重卡的購置成本進一步下降，僅依靠本研究設定的加氫補貼政策即可支持其推廣。值得注意的是，在氫氣資源富集、供應具備成本優(yōu)勢的地區(qū)，可相應降低對兩類補貼的依賴程度。.Thisstudyevaluatesthe.Thisstudyevaluatestheadoptionofzero-emissionheavy-duty.Itexaminesthispotentialundervarious.Theexpectedavailabilityofarobustcharging.Currentpoliciesareprovingefectiveinparticularlyforbatteryelectri.Expandingthechargingnetworkisthesecond-.BothfuelcellelectricToreducecarbonandairpollutantemissions,itwillbeimportanttopromoteZETs—batteryelectrictrucksandfuelcellelectrictrucks.Theadoptionofzero-emissionheavy-dutytrucks(HDTs)inChinagrewrapidlyfrom2021to2024,withzero-emissionHDTsaccountingfor14percentofnewHDTsalesbytheendof2024(CATARC2025).AlthoughthecurrentadoptionofZETsisprimarilyconcentratedinclosed-loopapplicationsandurbandelivery(Lietal.2024a;NEICV2022),1zero-emissionheavy-dutytrucksareexpectedtobeusedmoreoftenforbothregionaldeliv-eryandlong-haulapplications—thetwomostcommonHDTapplicationsinChina(CATARC2017).Atpresent,Chinalackscleartargets,roadmaps,andsystematicpolicyincentivestodrivebroaderadoptionofzero-emissionheavy-dutytrucks(ChenandXue2024;Al-Alawietal.2022).Cleartargetsandpoliciesforthedeploymentofzero-emissionheavy-dutytruckscouldbenefitChinainmultipleways.TheyreduceinvestmentrisksandattractprivatecapitalforZETproductionandinfrastructuredevelopment.Also,suchtargetswillhelpChinareachnationalclimategoals,yieldsubstantialpublichealthbenefitsthroughreducedairpollutantemissions,andstrengthenChina’seconomybyadvancingZETindustries(Ghateetal.2025).ThisstudyaimstoprovidepolicymakerswithinsightsintohowChinacanacceleratetheadoptionofzero-emissionheavy-dutytrucksinkeyapplicationsinthenearterm(by2035)throughdemand-sidepolicyinterventions.Toaddressthesequestions,thestudyfocusesonregionaldeliveryandlong-haulapplications.Botharewidespreadbutfacesignificantchallengestransitioningtozero-emissions.Theanalysisconcentratesontractortrailersandstraighttrucks,astheyarethemostcommonlyusedinRDandLHoperations.SinceChina’sheavy-dutytruckfleetislargelyoperatedbysmallandmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs)(TUC2022),thisstudyincludesaffiliatedandself-employedindividuals,toevaluateZETadoptionfromtheperspectiveofthesesmallerfleetoperators.ThisstudyassessesthepotentialforChina’sadoptionofzero-emissionheavy-dutytrucksbetween2024and2035,fortheRDandLHapplications,underthreesetsofscenarios.TheresearchmethodologyandmodelingstepsareoutlinedbelowandinFigureES-1.ToassessthefutureZETmarketsharebyapplicationfrom2024to2035withoutpolicyintervention,thisstudyprojectsZETpaybackperiodsandtotalcostofowner-ship(TCO)byapplication.Twomodelsarethenusedtoforecastmarketshare:anadaptedversionofthepredefinedrelationshipbetweenZETpaybackperiodsandmarketshare,asformulatedbytheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA2024a),andTransTEC(ECDofSCUT2024),adiscretechoicemodelthatestimatesZETmarketsharebasedonTCO.ToestimateZETpaybackperiodsandTCO,thisstudyidentifiesthekeyfactorsthatafectthedecisionoffleetoperators(particularlySMEs)toswitchtoZETsandquantifiesthesefactorsintermsofpaybackperiodsandTCO.2Toevaluatetheimpactofdiferentdemand-sidepolicyinterventionsonfutureZETmarketshare,thisstudyconstructstwopolicyscenarios(TableES-1):onereflect-ingcurrentpolicies(suchasthetrade-insubsidiesandtaxbreaks)andtheotherincorporatingadditionalpolicyincentivesaimedatincreasedZETadoption(suchasreducingroadchargesandacceleratingcharginginfrastruc-turedeployment).Thisstudyalsousesuncertaintyanalysistoexplorehowoperational,technological,cost,andpolicyuncertaintyafecttheabilityofpolicytodrivenear-termZETadoption.Notably,battery-swappingbatteryelectrictrucks(BETs)areexcludedfromthisstudyduetothelackofdata.Abbreviations:BET=batteryelectrictruck;CAPEX=capitalcost;DCFC=directcurrentfastcharging;EPA=USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency;FCET=fuelcellelectrictruck;MCS=megawattchargingsystem;OPEX=operationalcost;TCO=totalcostofownership;ZET=zero-emissiontruck.Note:Inthisstudy,shorter-rangeBETsareassumedtorechargeduringthedayusingdirectcurrentfastchargers(DCFCs)ormegawattchargingsystems(MCS),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorthroughnightchargingsystems(NCS),whilelonger-rangeBETsareassumedtorelysolelyonovernightchargingatdepotsorviaNCS.Source:WRIauthors’summary.Abbreviations:FCET=fuelcellelectrictruck;FCEV=fuelcellelectricvehicle;HDT=heavy-dutytruck;kg=kilograms;kWh=kilowatt-hours;LH=long-haul;RD=regionaldelivery;ZET=zero-emissiontruck.Note:Theblue-coloredscenariosfallundertheEnhancedpolicyscenarios.Therestofthescenariosarepolicyuncertaintyanalysis.Source:WRIauthors’summary.Weprojectedzero-emissionheavy-dutytrucks’paybackperiodsandmarketshareforregionalandlong-haulappli-cationsbetweenmodelyear(MY)2025andMY2035.Inthisstudy,zero-emissionheavy-dutytrucksareconsideredtobecost-competitivewhenthepaybackperiodiswithinfiveyearsforregionaldelivery,andwithinfouryearsforlong-haultransport.Thekeyfindingsareasfollows:First,withoutpolicyincentives,regionaldeliverywouldseeamodestZETmarketshareof2–17percentbyMY2030,whileZETadoptionwouldremainatanascentstageforlong-haultruckingthroughMY2035.Batteryelectrictruckswilldominateregionaldelivery,butforlong-haulapplication,theoptimaltechnologicalmixisuncertain.Inbothapplications,zero-emissiontractortrailersaremorelikelytoachieveawideadoptionthanzero-emissionstraighttrucks.Thisisprimarilyduetoawidercostgapbetweenzero-emissionstraighttrucksandtheirdieselcounterparts,drivenbygreaterpayloadlossesinzero-emis-sionstraighttrucks.Additionally,dieselstraighttrucksaregenerallymoreenergy-efficientandhavelowerpurchasecoststhandieseltractortrailers.Intermsoftechnologyselection,forregionaldelivery,bat-teryelectrictrucksaremorecost-competitivethanfuelcellelectrictrucksandareexpectedtodominatethismarketsegment.Forlong-haultrucking(particularlyfortractortrailers),theoptimaltechnologicalmixisuncertain.Spe-cifically,BETsaremorecompetitiveinshortdailyvehiclekilometerstraveled(DVKT),lowtimesensitivity,andnopayload-lossoperations,whereasFCETsaremoreeco-nomicallyviableinlongDVKTandhightime-sensitivityoperationswithheavygoodstransportation.3Second,currentpoliciesanalyzedbythisstudyareefectiveinincreasingZETmarketshare,particularlyforbatteryelectrictractortrailersinthelongannualvehiclekilometerstraveled(AVKT)operationsoftheRDapplication(FigureES-2);however,thenear-termsustainabilityofthesepoliciesinmaintainingZETadoptionshouldbeconsidered.Amongallthecurrentpoliciesexaminedinthisstudy,thetrade-insubsidiesaremostefectiveinreducingZETpaybackperiodsandincreasingmarketshare.Bycontrast,theZETtaxbreaksandtheFCETCityClustersubsidieshavealimitedimpact.However,attentionshouldbegivento2028,whenthecur-rentpolicies,includingthetrade-insubsidiesandZETtaxbreaks,aresettoexpire,whilethetotalcostofownershipforZETsremainshigh.Withoutsustainedpolicies,ZETmar-ketsharewouldbeexpectedtodecline(seeFigureES-2).Third,comparedtothecurrentpolicies,theenhancedpoliciesanalyzedinthisstudywouldgreatlyimproveZETmarketshareinregionaldelivery,whilethelong-haulapplicationwouldrequirestrongerandmoresustainedpolicysupportthroughMY2035.Abbreviations:AVKT=annualvehiclekilometerstraveled;BET200_DCFC=batteryelectrictruckswitha200–250kmrangethatarerechargedduringthedayusingdirectcurrentfastchargers(DCFC),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorvianightchargingsystems(NCS);BET200_MCS=batteryelectrictruckswitha200–250kmrangethatarerechargedduringthedayusingmegawattchargingsystems(MCS),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorviaNCS;BET400=batteryelectrictruckswitha400–450kmrange,onlychargedovernightatdepotsorviaNCS;FCET400=fuelcellelectrictruckswitha400–450kmrange;ICET=internalcombustionenginetruck;km=kilometer;MY=modelyear;RD=regionaldelivery;ZET=zero-emissiontruck.Source:WRIauthors’summary.Underthecombinedefectsofthecurrentpoliciesandenhancedpoliciesanalyzedinthisstudy,theregionaldeliveryapplicationshowsstronggrowthinZETmarketshare:ZETmarketshareswouldexceed50percentbetweenMY2027andMY2030(FigureES-3).AlthoughtheenhancedpoliciesimproveZETmarketshareinthelong-haulapplication—reaching5–75percentbyMY2035,ZETmarketsharewillnotexperi-encerapidgrowthuntilMY2032–35(FigureES-4).Thisindicatesthatpolicysupportforlong-haultruckingmustextendthroughMY2035.Abbreviations:AVKT=annualvehiclekilometerstraveled;BET200_DCFC=batteryelectrictruckswitha200–250kilometer(km)rangethatarerechargedduringthedayusingdirectcurrentfastchargers(DCFCs),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorvianightchargingsystems(NCS);BET200_MCS=batteryelectrictruckswitha200–250kmrangethatarerechargedduringthedayusingmegawattchargingsystems(MCS),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorviaNCS;BET400=batteryelectrictruckswitha400–450kmrange,onlychargedovernightatdepotsorviaNCS;FCET400=fuelcellelectrictruckswitha400–450kmrange;ICET=internalcombustionenginetruck;MY=modelyear;RD=regionaldelivery.Source:WRIauthors’summary.Abbreviations:AVKT=annualvehiclekilometerstraveled;BET400_DCFC=batteryelectrictruckswitha400–450kilometer(km)rangethatarerechargedduringthedayusingdirectcurrentfastchargers(DCFC),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorvianightchargingsystems(NCS);BET400_MCS=batteryelectrictruckswitha400–450kmrangethatarerechargedduringthedayusingmegawattchargingsystems(MCS),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorviaNCS;BET800=batteryelectrictruckswithan800–850kmrange,onlychargedovernightatdepotsorviaNCS;FCET800=fuelcellelectrictruckswitha800–850kmrange;ICET=internalcombustionenginetruck;MY=modelyear;RD=regionaldelivery.Source:WRIauthors’summary.Further,theimpactsfromtheenhancedpoliciesvarybypolicyintensity(FiguresES-3andES-4).Forexample,ifexpresswaychargeswerereducedfurtherfrom15–50percent(Road_charge_50%),Road_charge_50%wouldovertakeAccel_charge(acceleratedexpansionofpublicDCFCstationsandloweredovernightchargingcosts)andbecomethemostefectivepolicyanalyzedinthisstudytoaccelerateZETadoption.Fourth,operational,technological,andpriceuncertain-tiesgreatlyafecttheaboveconclusionsonfutureZETmarketshare.First,operationalvariations—suchasdif-ferencesinannualvehiclekilometerstraveled,dailyvehiclekilometerstraveled,cargotypes,andtimesensitivity—intro-ducesignificantuncertaintyinZETadoptionrates.Forexample,forregionaldelivery,undertheNopolicyscenario,ZETmarketsharebyMY2030couldrangefrom1to48percentduetooperationalvariations.Further,thegreatuncertaintiesinBETadoptionalsoarisefromvariationsinenergyefficiency,batterycosts,dieselprices,andchcosts.Forexample,undertheCurrentpolicyscenario,a±10percentchangeintheseparameterswouldleadtoZETmarketshareinMY2027rangingbetween4and65percent.Theabovefindingsalsoleadtothesepossiblepolicyimplications:First,China’snationalgovernmentscouldestablishapplication-andsegment-specificZETpromotiontar-gets.ZETtargetsettinginthefive-yearplansisimportanttoprovidepredictabilityforcompaniesalongtheZETmanufacturingsupplychainandtoguideinfrastructureinvestments.GiventhevariationinZETmarketshareacrossdiferentapplicationsandtrucksegments,thesetargetscouldbediferentiatedaccordingly.TheRDapplicationholdsgreatpotentialfornear-termZETadoption,particularlyforthetractortrailersegment.AhighZETadoptiontargetcouldbesetforthissegmentby2030.WitharobustchargingnetworkexpectedtobeinplacebyMY2030(theAccel_chargescenario),themarketshareofzero-emissiontractortrailersintheRDapplicationcouldreach33–57percent(FigureES-5).Abbreviations:AVKT=annualvehiclekilometerstraveled;BET200_DCFC=batteryelectrictruckswitha200–250kilometer(km)rangethatarerechargedduringthedayusingdirectcurrentfastchargers(DCFC),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorvianightchargingsystems(NCS);BET200_MCS=batteryelectrictruckswitha200–250kmrangethatarerechargedduringthedayusingmegawattchargingsystems(MCS),inadditiontoovernightchargingatdepotsorviaNCS;BET400=batteryelectrictruckswitha400–450kmrange,onlychargedovernightatdepotsorviaNCS;FCET400=fuelcellelectrictruckswitha400–450kmrange;ICET=internalcombustionenginetruck;MY=modelyear;RD=regionaldelivery.Source:WRIauthors’summary.Bycontrast,giventhatZETadoptionremainsatitsearlystageforlong-haultransport,amodestpromotiontargetisadvisableby2030,butarelativelyhightargetcouldbeconsideredfor2035,particularlyforthetractortrailersegment.Forexample,withawell-developedchargingnetwork(theAccel_chargescenario),zero-emissiontractortrailerswouldachievea15–53percentmarketshareintheLHapplicationbyMY2035.GiventhesignificantuncertaintiesassociatedwithZETadoptionresultingfromoperational,technological,andpriceuncertainties,complementarymeasurescouldbeconsideredtomitigatevolatilityandsupporttheachievementofZETpromotiontargets.Thesemeasuresincludereducingfossilfuelsubsidiesandcrackingdownonillegalandunderpricedfuelsupplies,strengthen-ingthesupplychainresilienceoforiginalequipmentmanufacturers,developingfuturesmarketsforcriticalmaterialsandhydrogen,andintroducingcarbonpric-ingontransportationfuels(OIES2024;MPPetal.2022;Yang2020).Second,althoughthisstudyfindsa50percentreduc-tioninroadchargesduringthe2024–35periodtobethemostefectivepolicyforacceleratingZETadoption,itsimplementationshouldbeapproachedwithcaution.Ouranalysisshowsthat50percentreductionsinroadcharges(Road_charge_50%)duringtheMY2024–35perioddeliverstrongZETadoptionoutcomes,compa-rabletothoseachievedunderafullexemption(Road_charge_100%).Thissuggeststhatapartialreductioninroadchargeswouldbesufficient.Notably,thisstudydoesnotassessthefiscalimpactofroadchargereductionsongovernmentrevenue.Therefore,acomprehensiveevaluationisneededtodeterminetheviabilityofsuchmeasures.Inaddition,tomitigatepoten-tialrevenuelosses,roadchargepoliciesshouldbecarefullydesigned—forexample,byimposinghigherratesondieseltrucks,inlinewiththeEuropeanUnion’scarbon-indexedroadchargepolicy(EU2022).Third,acceleratedexpansionofpublicDCFCsta-tionsandloweredovernightchargingcostsarethesecond-mostinfluential—yetessential—policy.Optimalchargingstationdeploymentstrategiesvarybyapplication.Intheregionaldeliveryapplication,thecombinedpolicyscenario(Accel_charge)—whichincludestheacceleratedexpansionofpublicDCFCstations(Accel_DCFC,achieving100percentnationalcover-ageofDCFCstationsby2035)andreducedovernightchargingcostsatdepotsornightchargingsystem(Accel_depot,with0.6Chineseyuanperkilowatt-hour[CNY/kWh]chargingcostduringthe2024–35period)—hasthegreatestimpacts.Thissuggeststhatcharginginfrastructurepoliciesshouldnotonlypri-oritizetheexpansionofpublictruckchargingstationsalonghighwaysandexpresswaysbutalsoensureaccesstolow-costovernightchargingatdepotsorthroughnightchargingsystems(NCS).Inthelong-haulapplication,twodiferentcharginginfra-structuredeploymentstrategiescouldleadtosimilarlevelsofZETadoptionrates:Accel_chargescenario:Achieving100percent.nationalcoverageofpublicDCFCstationsby2035,combinedwithreducedovernightchargingcostsatdepotsornightchargingsystemsbetween2024and2035.Thisindicatesthatevenwithoutthedeploymentofmegawattchargingsystem(MCS)stations,amixoflow-costovernightchargingandafullybuilt-outpublicDCFCchargingnetworkwouldbeessentialtosupportZETadoption..Accel_MCSscenario:Achieving100percentnationalcoverageofbothpublicMCSandDCFCstationsby2035.Thissuggeststhatevenintheabsenceoflow-costovernightcharging,anationwidepublicnetworkofDCFCandMCSstationswouldsufficientlysupportZETadoption,providedthatMCSchargingcostsremainlow.Fourth,underthisstudy’sassumptions,bothfuelcellelectrictruckpurchasesubsidiesandhydrogensubsidieswouldbeusefulbefore2030tosustainFCETadoption.AsthetotalcostofownershipofFCETsdeclinesovertime,theneedfordifferenttypesofsubsidiesevolves.Inthenearterm(MY2025–30),bothFCETpurchasesubsidies(FCET_purchase)andhydrogenrefuelingsubsidies(H2_subsidy)areessentialforsupportingFCETadoptioninbothregionaldeliveryandlong-haulapplications,exceptforregionswherelow-costhydrogenisalreadyavailable.Overthelongterm(post-MY2030),asFCETpurchasepricesdecline,thehydrogenrefuelingsubsidiesassumedinthisstudywouldbesufficienttomaintainFCETadoption,par-ticularlyforthelong-haulapplication.Fifth,theeffectivenessofsomeZETincentivesvariesacrosstrucksegmentsandapplications.Inthenearterm,tractortrailerspresentstrongeroppor-tunitiesforZETadoption,whilezero-emissionstraighttruckswouldneedgreaterpolicysupport.Forexample,intheregionaldeliveryapplication,batteryelectrictractortrailersbenefitmorefromcurrentpoliciesthanbatteryelectricstraighttrucksduetosmallercostdiferenceswiththeirdieselcounterparts,comparedtobatteryelectricstraighttrucks.Assuch,prioritizingZETadoptioninthetractortrailersegmentismorefeasibleintheshortterm.Incontrast,promotingzero-emissionstraighttruckswouldrequireadditionalpolicysup-port.Forexample,ZETweightallowanceisespeciallycrucialforbatteryelectricstraighttrucks,duetogreaterpayloadlossesassociatedwithbatteryelectricstraighttrucks.Likewise,fuel-cell(FC)straighttruckswouldneedhighersubsidiesthanFCtractortrailers,giventheirlargerpurchasecostgaprelativetodieselcounterparts.Lastly,statisticsontruckoperationalprofilesbyapplicationandtrucksegmentneedtobeimproved.Dataonthemileageandloadprofilesofexistingheavy-dutytruckfleetsandtrucksalesbyapplicationareessentialforefectivepolicymakingandindustrialcol-laboration.InChina,topreventdriversfromspeedingorworkingovertime,themeasuresarticulatedinMOTetal.2014requireallheavy-dutyvehiclestoinstalltheglobalpositioningsystem,whichhasprovidedaviablewaytocollectHDTs’mileageprofiles.TosupportthefurtheradoptionofZETtrucks,itisimportantfornationalgovernmentsandrelevantagenciestogatherandanalyzethesedatabyapplicationandtruckseg-ment,andsharethefindingswithkeystakeholders,suchasothergovernmentministriesandprivatesectoractors(likechargingpointoperators).隨著技術與成本持續(xù)優(yōu)化，新能源重卡有望進一場景與長途運輸場景。為實現(xiàn)新能源重卡在更廣泛場景中的推廣，中國需建立明確的推廣目標并構建系統(tǒng)的政策體系。本研究旨在探討近期(2035年前）需求側政策如何促進新能源重卡在區(qū)域運輸場景與長途運輸場景中的推廣?？傇O計質量超過12噸的重卡廣泛用于多種場景。盡管其保有量僅占中國機動車保有量的3%，但2023示，該類車輛貢獻了中國道路交通35%的二氧化碳排放4，（MEE2025;CATARC2025;XueandLiu2022）。作為低碳解決方案，新能源重卡推廣對應對氣候變化和改善空氣質量具有重要意義。2021至2024年間，在電池成本持續(xù)下降（TrendForce2025）以及“以舊換新”補貼政策落地（MOTetal.2025;MOTandMOF2024）5的推動下，中國新能源重卡的市場滲透率迅速提高（見圖1）。截至2024年底，新能源重卡在重卡新車銷量中占比已達到14%（CATARC2025）。港口內部運輸）與城市運輸場景（Lietal.2024;NEICV2022）。未來，其應用范圍有望進一步擴展至區(qū)域運輸場景和長途運輸場景——這也是中國重卡最主要的應用領域（CATARC2017）。然而，技術限制、成本偏高以及充電基礎設施不足等因素仍制約著這一轉型進程，其中長途運輸場景面臨的挑戰(zhàn)尤為突出（NykvistandOlsson2021）。andXue2024;Al-Alawietal.2022;附錄A）：.目標層面：中國尚未設定明確的新能源重卡推廣目標。相較之下，歐盟已提出到2040年將重卡二氧化碳排放量在2019年基礎上降低90%（EU2024）。.游與基礎設施領域投資；推動新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展；助力國家實現(xiàn)氣候目標，減少空氣污染物排放系統(tǒng)且有針對性的新能源重卡推廣政策，如重卡專本研究旨在探討近期（2035年前）如何通過需求側政策提升新能源重卡在區(qū)域運輸場景與長途運輸場景中的市場滲透率。本研究之所以聚焦于區(qū)域運輸場景和長途運輸場景（見表1不僅因為這兩個場景合計占據(jù)中國重卡運營里程的絕大部分（CATARC2017也因其是新能源重卡推廣難度最大的領域。在車型方面，本研究重點關注半掛牽引車與重型載貨汽車，因為這兩類車型占2024年全國主流車型。輸企業(yè)、個體司機、掛靠在運輸企業(yè)下的個體司機（TUC2022本研究將從這類主體的視角出發(fā)，分析與預測新能源重卡的市場滲透潛力。據(jù)統(tǒng)計，2023年小微運輸企業(yè)與個的貨源而面臨運營不穩(wěn)定的風險（CFLP202452%的個體司機年收入低于或僅相當于全國人均年收入水平6（CFLP小微運輸企業(yè)和個體司機在車輛成本、配套設施、運輸效率...本研究的研究范圍界定如下：.為2024年。由于研究重點為新能源重卡近期的推廣.地理范圍：本研究聚焦全國層面分析。受制于數(shù).據(jù)可得性，未考慮北方地區(qū)冬季低溫、西部山地地形以及各地電價差異等區(qū)域因素對新能源重卡市場滲透率的影響。相關區(qū)域差異帶來的不確定性.以下技術路線不納入本研究分析范疇：一是插電式混合動力重卡，因車型數(shù)量有限且市場滲透率較低（MIIT2022;CATARC2025二是氫內燃機與甲醇內燃機，因國內低碳燃料供應不足，且相關數(shù)據(jù)缺乏；三是換電式重卡，因數(shù)據(jù)不足，且2024年以來其市場份額應用場景：本研究聚焦于區(qū)域運輸場景（regional.delivery，以下或簡稱RD）與長途運輸場景（long2023;NEICV2022故不納入本研究范疇。貨車類型：本研究側重中國兩大主流重卡車型——.體關注最大設計總質量為49噸的半掛牽引車和最大設計總質量為18噸的重型載貨汽車。這兩類車型分別占半掛牽引車保有量的92%和重型載貨汽車保有能源重卡的市場滲透率已達18%，而在18噸重型載圖3CATARC2025）。.新能源重卡的市場滲透率。由于中國目前缺乏分場景的重卡年銷量統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，本文暫無法測算全.此僅評估需求側政策對新能源重卡推廣的影響，未考慮供給側措施（如商用車積分政策）的作用。值得指出的是，供給側政策需與需