1、六、通貨膨脹與失業(yè)理論INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT,通貨膨脹定義與危害,通貨膨脹是指商品和生產(chǎn)要素價格普遍和持續(xù)的上漲。 持續(xù)的通貨膨脹會破壞價格機制，使生產(chǎn)者和消費者作出錯誤決策，導致資源配置浪費。 通貨膨脹使貨幣貶值，動搖人們對貨幣的信心。 不利于本國出口，不利于國際收支平衡。 不利于儲蓄者，不利于貸款者。,Inflation: Its Causes and Costs通貨膨脹：原因與成本,Inflation is an increase in the overall price level.通貨膨脹是價格水平的整體上升 It is a continuous inc

2、rease （持續(xù)上升）versus a once-and-for-all increase in prices. Inflation deals with the increase in the average of prices（平均水平）and not just significant increases in the price of a few goods.,The Causes of Inflation,Inflation is an economy-wide monetary phenomenon（貨幣現(xiàn)象）that concerns, first and foremost, t

3、he value of the economys medium of exchange.,The Causes of Inflation,To understand the causes of inflation we must understand the concepts of money supply, money demand, and monetary equilibrium（貨幣均衡）.,In the long run, the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money eq

4、uals the supply.,Money Supply and Money Demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money Supply and Money Demand,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money,demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(

5、High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money,demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,A,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money,demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,A,Money supply,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,Money,demand,Money Supply and Money Demand,

6、The Effects of Monetary Injection貨幣注入效應,Suppose the Fed injects money into the economy by buying government bonds. The supply of money curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium value of money decreases. The equilibrium price level increases.,The Effects of MonetaryInjection,The Effects of MonetaryI

7、njection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,The Effects of Monetary Injection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,The Effects of Monetary Injection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,The Effects of Monetary Injection,0,1,(Low),(High)

8、,(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,1. An increase in the money supply.,The Effects of Monetary Injection,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,M1,MS2,1. An increase in the money supply.,The Effects of Monetary Injection,A,B,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1

9、.33,2,4,M1,MS1,M1,MS2,1. An increase in the money supply.,The Effects of Monetary Injection,A,B,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,M1,MS2,2. .decreases the value of money .,1. An increase in the money supply.,The Effects of Monetary Injection,A,B,0,1,(Low),(High),(High),(Low

10、),1/2,1/4,3/4,1,1.33,2,4,M1,MS1,M1,MS2,2. .decreases the value of money .,1. An increase in the money supply.,Hyperinflation惡性通貨膨脹,Hyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month.,Hyperinflation,Hyperinflation occurs in some countries because the government prints too much money to pay

11、 for its spending.,Hyperinflation,Note the relationship between the growth rate of the quantity of money and the price level.,Hyperinflation,Hungary匈牙利,Money supply,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Price level,100,000,10,000,1,000,100,Index (Jan. 1921 = 100),Austria奧地利,Hyperinflation,Germany德國,1,100 trillio

12、n,1 million,10 billion,1 trillion,100 million,10,000,100,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Price level,Money,supply,Poland波蘭,Money,supply,Price level,Index (Jan. 1921 = 100),100,10 million,100,000,1 million,10,000,1,000,1925,1924,1923,1922,1921,Index (Jan. 1921 = 100),Hyperinflation and Inflation Tax通貨膨脹稅,Wh

13、en the government raises revenue by printing money, it is said to levy an inflation tax. An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money.,Hyperinflation and Inflation Tax,The inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms（財政改革） such as cuts in government spending（削減政府開支）.,Th

14、e Fisher Effect費雪效應,According to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest rate（名義利率）rises by the same amount. The real interest rate（實際利率） stays the same.,The Fisher Effect,According to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest rate ri

15、ses by the same amount. The real interest rate stays the same.,The Fisher Effect,When the Fed increases the rate of money growth, the result is both a higher inflation rate and a higher nominal interest rate.,需求拉上型通貨膨脹,成本推進型通貨膨脹,The Costs of Inflation,Shoeleather costs（皮鞋成本） Menu costs（菜單成本） Relativ

16、e price variability（相對價格變動） Tax distortions（稅收扭曲） Confusion and inconvenience（混亂與不方便） Arbitrary redistribution of wealth（任意的財富再分配）,Shoeleather Costs（皮鞋成本）,Shoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings.,Shoeleather Costs,Inflation reduces t

17、he real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings.,Shoeleather Costs,Less cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing accounts.,Shoeleather Costs,Extra trips to the bank take time away from productive activities.,Menu Costs（

18、菜單成本）,Menu costs are the costs of changing prices.,Menu Costs,During inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists（更新價格目錄） and other posted prices.,Menu Costs,This is a resource-consuming process（資源消耗過程） that takes away from other productive activities.,Relative-Price Variability（相對價格變動）

19、,Inflation distorts relative prices（通貨膨脹扭曲了相對價格）. Consumer decisions are distorted（消費者決策也被扭曲）, and markets are less able to allocate resources to their best use.,Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion（通貨膨脹引起的稅收扭曲）,Inflation exaggerates（夸大） the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden（增加稅收負擔） on

20、this type of income. With progressive taxation（累進稅）, capital gains are taxed more heavily.,Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion,The income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income,（所得稅把名義利率作為儲蓄所賺得的收入進行征稅） even though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for inflation（部

21、分名義利率僅夠補償通貨膨脹造成的損失）. The after-tax real interest rate falls, making saving less attractive.（稅后實際利率下降，導致儲蓄失去吸引力）,Confusion and Inconvenience（混亂與不方便）,With rising prices, it is more difficult to compare real revenues, costs, and profits over time.物價上漲使人們對不同時期的收入、成本和利潤難以進行比較。,Arbitrary Redistribution of

22、 Wealth（任意的財富再分配）,Unanticipated inflation redistributes wealth between debtors and creditors.不可預期的通貨膨脹會造成債務人和債權人之間的財富再分配。 This may result in wealth transfers that would not otherwise be acceptable.,失業(yè)概念和分類,失業(yè)是指有勞動能力并愿意就業(yè)的勞動者找不到工作。失業(yè)可分為三種狀況： 磨擦性失業(yè)，是指因工作變動過程為尋找工作轉換而產(chǎn)生的失業(yè)，它被看作是一種求職性失業(yè)。 結構性失業(yè)，是指因經(jīng)濟結構的變化

23、，產(chǎn)業(yè)興衰轉移造成的失業(yè)。 周期性失業(yè)，是指經(jīng)濟周期性衰退所造成的失業(yè)。,Natural Rate of Unemployment自然失業(yè)率,The natural rate of unemployment is unemployment that does not go away on its own even in the long run. It is the amount of unemployment that the economy normally experiences.,自然失業(yè)率,自然失業(yè)率是指在充分就業(yè)條件下的失業(yè)率，主要是指磨擦性失業(yè)和結構性失業(yè)。二戰(zhàn)以來，自然失業(yè)率不

24、斷上升，其原因是： 產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調(diào)整速度加快，這是科技進步的結果。 失業(yè)救濟金不斷增加，不少國家失業(yè)與就業(yè)之間的效用差別越來越小。 最低工資不斷上升，往往高于市場出清水平。 勞動供給結構變化，婦女就業(yè)率提高。,Cyclical Unemployment周期性失業(yè),Cyclical unemployment refers to the fluctuations in unemployment around its natural rate.圍繞著自然失業(yè)率的波動 It is associated with with short-term ups and downs of the business c

25、ycle（商業(yè)周期）.,Measuring Unemployment失業(yè)統(tǒng)計,Unemployment is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)美國勞動統(tǒng)計局. It surveys 60,000 randomly selected households every month.,Measuring Unemployment,The BLS considers a person an adult if he or she is over 16 years old.,Measuring Unemployment,A person is

26、 considered employed if he or she has spent most of the previous week working at a paid job.,Measuring Unemployment,A person is considered unemployed if he or she is on temporary layoff, looking for a job, or waiting for the start date of a new job.,Measuring Unemployment,A person in none of these c

27、ategories is not in the labor force.,Measuring Unemployment,The labor force（勞動力） is the total number of workers, which includes both the number employed plus the number unemployed.,Measuring Unemployment,The labor-force participation rate （勞動力參工率）is the percentage of the adult population that is in

28、the labor force.,Measuring Unemployment,The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.,Measuring Unemployment,The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.,奧肯定律,失業(yè)意味著愿意就業(yè)的勞動力資源沒有得到充分的利用，從而會使實際產(chǎn)出增長率低于充分就業(yè)時的產(chǎn)出

29、增長率。 美國經(jīng)濟學家奧肯(Arthur M. Okun)根據(jù)美國歷年的經(jīng)驗數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)：實際產(chǎn)出增長率每低于潛在產(chǎn)出增長率3個百分點，就會引起失業(yè)率上升1個百分點。奧肯定律描繪了產(chǎn)出增長率與失業(yè)率之間的關系。 奧肯定律表明，要保持失業(yè)率不變，實際產(chǎn)出增長率與潛在產(chǎn)出增長率之間的缺口不能擴大。,Why is there unemployment?,In an ideal labor market, wages would adjust to balance the supply and demand for labor, ensuring that all workers would be ful

30、ly employed（充分就業(yè)）.,Why the Ideal Is Missed,Minimum-wage laws最低工資法 Unions工會 Efficiency wages效率工資 Job search職業(yè)搜尋,Minimum-Wage Laws,When the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand, it creates unemployment.,Minimum-Wage Laws,Quantity of Labor,0,Wage,Minimum-Wage Laws,Quantit

31、y of Labor,0,Wage,Minimum-Wage Laws,WE,Quantity of Labor,LE,0,Wage,Minimum-Wage Laws,WE,Quantity of Labor,LE,0,Wage,Minimum wage,Minimum-Wage Laws,WE,Quantity of Labor,LE,0,Wage,Minimum wage,LD,LS,Minimum-Wage Laws,WE,Quantity of Labor,LE,0,Wage,Minimum wage,LD,LS,Unions and Collective Bargaining工會和

32、集體談判,A union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions. A union is a type of cartel.工會是一種典型的卡特爾,Unions and Collective Bargaining,The process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called collective bargaining（集體談判）.,Unions and Colle

33、ctive Bargaining,A strike （罷工）will be organized if the union and the firm cannot reach an agreement.,Unions and Collective Bargaining,A strike makes some workers better off and other workers worse off.罷工會使有些工人更好，而另一些工人更壞。 Workers in unions reap the benefits of collective bargaining, while workers no

34、t in the union bear some of the costs.,Unions and Collective Bargaining,By acting as a cartel with ability to strike or otherwise impose high costs on employers, unions usually achieve above equilibrium wages for their members. Union workers earn 10 to 20 percent more than nonunion workers.,Are unio

35、ns good or bad for the economy?工會對經(jīng)濟是利是弊,Critics argue that unions cause the allocation of labor to be inefficient and inequitable.批評者認為工會使勞動力配置失效和不公平 Wages above the competitive level競爭水平 reduce the quantity of labor demanded and cause unemployment. Some workers benefit at the expense of other work

36、ers.,Are unions good or bad for the economy?,Advocates（擁護者） of unions contend that unions are a necessary antidote（矯正） to the market power of firms that hire workers. They claim that unions are important for helping firms respond efficiently to workers concerns.,長期合同理論,由于工會的存在，勞資雙方談判成本較高，所以一般都傾向于簽訂長

37、期合同。 在合同期內(nèi)，名義工資一般固定不變。也就是說，在長期合同中，雇員的名義工資是剛性的。 如果合同期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退，這時雇主不能通過降低工資來擴大勞動力需求，這就使勞動力市場處于非出清狀態(tài)，造成部分失業(yè)。,內(nèi)部人-外部人理論,內(nèi)部人是指那些已在企業(yè)工作的人，外部人是指那些想到企業(yè)工作的人。 內(nèi)部人在工資決定上有討價還價的能力，這是因為企業(yè)要調(diào)換內(nèi)部人和雇傭外部人是要花費成本的，這些成本包括：根據(jù)合同條款，解雇內(nèi)部人需作出補償；解雇內(nèi)部人會引起其他內(nèi)部人的不滿；雇傭外部人需花費更多的培訓費用等。 內(nèi)部人會團結起來，排擠外部人，這樣就可以使內(nèi)部人將工資穩(wěn)定在高于市場出清的水平。,效率工資理論,

38、為刺激員工的高效率，雇主會主動把工資維持在一個高于勞動力市場出清的水平，這是因為： 高工資會增加員工怠工偷懶的機會成本；高工資可以吸引優(yōu)秀人才；高工資可以減少員工變換工作的行為；高工資可以讓員工心態(tài)平衡；高工資可以減少員工聯(lián)合的動機。 高于市場出清的高工資，會導致勞動力市場總是存在著過剩的勞動供給，失業(yè)也會持續(xù)存在。,Theory of Efficiency Wages效率工資理論,Efficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity. The th

39、eory of efficiency wages states that firms operate more efficiently if wages are above the equilibrium level.,Theory of Efficiency Wages,A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons: Worker Health工人健康: Better paid workers eat better and thus are more productive. Worker T

40、urnover工人流動率: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.,Theory of Efficiency Wages,A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons: Worker Effort工人努力程度: Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort. Worker Quality工人素質(zhì): Higher wages attra

41、ct a better pool of workers to apply for jobs.,二元勞動力市場理論,我們可以把勞動力市場劃分為第一市場和第二市場。 第一市場工資較高，勞動條件較好，工作崗位有保障，職業(yè)前景較好。第二市場工資較低，工作條件差，工作具有不穩(wěn)定性和暫時性。 這兩個勞動力市場的求職者一般不會相互流動，這是因為第一市場的求職者不愿光顧第二市場；而第二市場的求職者無法進入第一市場。 如果出現(xiàn)周期性失業(yè)，第一市場的失業(yè)率要明顯低于第二市場，因為第一市場更多地受到制度的保護。,Unemployment and Inflation失業(yè)與通貨膨脹,The natural rate o

42、f unemployment depends on various features of the labor market. Examples include minimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, and the role of efficiency wages.,Unemployment and Inflation,The inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money, controlled by the Fed.,The Phillips Cu

43、rve菲利浦斯曲線,Society faces a short-run tradeoff（交替） between unemployment and inflation. If policymakers expand擴張 aggregate demand, they can lower unemployment, but only at the cost of higher inflation. If they contract收縮 aggregate demand, they can lower inflation, but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.,The Phillips Curve,The Phillips curve