全球光伏市場分析報(bào)告（20132017）GLOBALMARKETOUTLOOKFORPHOTOVOLTAICS20VIEW,ASPVELECTRICITYTARIFFSAREPAIDONLYTOSYSTEMSTHATARECONNECTEDANDPRODUCINGELECTRICITYTHEDIFFERENCEBETWEENINSTALLATIONSANDSYSTEMSCONNECTEDTOTHEGRIDCANBEQUITESIGNIFICANTINSOMECASESTHEROLEOFOFFGRIDINSTALLATIONSLONGBEFOREPVBECAMEARELIABLESOURCEOFPOWERCONNECTEDTOTHEGRID,ITWASLARGELYUSEDTOPROVIDEELECTRICITYINREMOTEAREASTHATLAYOUTOFTHEREACHOFELECTRICITYGRIDSWHILEOFFGRIDSYSTEMSINEUROPEACCOUNTFORLESSTHAND12VIEWOFGERMANYSMARKETINTHELASTMONTHSSHOWSARELATIVESTABILISATIONATAROUND56GWAYEAR,QUITEFARFROMTHEGOVERNMENTEXPECTATIONSINITALY,34GWOFPVWERECONNECTEDTOTHEGRIDIN20VIEWINTHISCASE,THEITALIANMARKETWASCLOSERTO45GWIN20D1238UNITEDKINGDOM22,000PARADIGMSHIFT2,521925RESTOFEU271,85022620TOTALEU27249,35022,53416,672RESTOFEU27INCLUDESCYPRUS,ESTONIA,FINLAND,IRELAND,LATVIA,LITHUANIA,LUXEMBOURGANDMALTAMARKETEXCEEDEDTHEANNUALPOTENTIALMARKETWASATARIGHTLEVELACCORDINGTOPOTENTIALMARKETWASLOWERTHANACTUALPOTENTIALEPIA1GLOBALMARKETOUTLOOKFORPHOTOVOLTAICS201320171273MARKETEVOLUTIONNATIONALRENEWABLEENERGYACTIONPLANSNREAPSVSTHEREALITYOFPVMARKETSTABLE2COMPARESTHECUMULATIVEINSTALLEDCAPACITYATTHEENDOF2012INMOSTEUMARKETS,THEOFFICIALNATIONALRENEWABLEENERGYACTIONPLANTARGETFORPVBY2020ANDTHENECESSARYYEARLYMARKETTOREACHTHIS2020TARGETLINEARPROJECTIONTABLE2NREAPSVSREALITYOFPVMARKETSINTHEEU27MWCUMULATIVENREAPSNECESSARYTARGETMARKETMARKETINSTALLED2020TARGETYEARLYMARKETREACHEDININ2011IN2012CAPACITYFORPVUNTIL2020IN2012AUSTRIA418322N/AREACHEDIN201292230BELGIUM2,6501,340N/AREACHEDIN2011996599BULGARIA908303N/AREACHEDIN2012105767CZECHREPUBLIC2,0721,695N/AREACHEDIN20106113DENMARK3946N/AREACHEDIN201010378FRANCE4,0034,8601071201320141,7561,079GERMANY32,41151,75324178201620207,4857,604GREECE1,5362,2008320132014426912HUNGARY463742013201525N/AITALY16,3618,000N/AREACHEDIN20119,4543,438NETHERLANDS266722572014201658125POLAND73N/AREACHEDIN201214PORTUGAL2441,000944201620204749ROMANIA30260287201320161626SLOVAKIA523300N/AREACHEDIN201132115SLOVENIA198139N/AREACHEDIN201246117SPAIN5,1668,367400220162020472276SWEDEN198N/AREACHEDIN201148UNITEDKINGDOM1,8292,680106420132014813925RESTOFEU276236037320162020227TOTALEU2769,10084,3811910122013201422,11716,672RESTOFEU27INCLUDESCYPRUS,ESTONIA,FINLAND,IRELAND,LATVIA,LITHUANIA,LUXEMBOURGANDMALTATARGETALREADYREACHEDIN20102012COUNTRYHASSIGNIFICANTLYUNDERESTIMATEDPVSPOTENTIALTARGETTOBEREACHEDBY20132015COUNTRYHASUNDERESTIMATEDPVSPOTENTIALTARGETTOBEREACHEDBY20162020COUNTRYHASEITHERPROPERLYESTIMATEDPVSPOTENTIALGERMANYORHASSETMEASURESCONSTRAININGTHEMARKETTOMEETTHESETTARGETNOTEARLIERTHAN2020NETHERLANDS,PORTUGAL,SPAIN281EPIA1GLOBALMARKETOUTLOOKFORPHOTOVOLTAICS201320173MARKETEVOLUTIONPOTENTIAL,NATIONALTARGETSANDTHEREALITYEPIAHASCOMPAREDVARIOUSPVMARKETFORECASTSUNTIL2017AGAINSTTHETHREESCENARIOSDEVELOPEDINTHE“CONNECTINGTHESUN”REPORTASWELLASTHENREAPSFIGURE17EUROPEANPVCUMULATIVECAPACITYFORECASTSCOMPAREDWITHEPIASNEW2020SCENARIOSANDNREAPSTARGETSMW400,000350,000358,250300,000250,000241,550200,000150,000121,500100,00084,38150,0000200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020EPIAPOLICYDRIVENPARADIGMSHIFT202012“CONNECTINGTHESUN”EPIABUSINESSASUSUALACCELERATED20208“CONNECTINGTHESUN”HISTORICALDATABASELINE20204“CONNECTINGTHESUN”NATIONALTARGETSNREAPS202024EPIA,“CONNECTINGTHESUNSOLARPHOTOVOLTAICSONTHEROADTOLARGESCALEGRIDINTEGRATION”,2012THEPERCENTAGEINDICATESTHESHAREOFELECTRICITYDEMANDTHEBUSINESSASUSUALSCENARIOFORPVUNTIL2017THATUSEDTOBEALIGNEDWITHTHE4TARGETCONNECTINGTHESUNSBASELINESCENARIOAPPEARSNOWTOBESLIGHTLYHIGHERTHISREPRESENTSANIMPROVEMENTFROMPREVIOUSEPIAFORECASTS,WHICHESTIMATEDTHATGROWTHWOULDNOTQUITEREACHTHE4TARGETBY2020THUS,ITLOOKSREASONABLETOEXPECTTHAT45PENETRATIONFORPVCOULDBEREACHEDEVENINTHELOWGROWTHCASETHEPOLICYDRIVENSCENARIOFORPVUNTIL2017APPEARSALMOSTINLINEWITHTHEACCELERATEDSCENARIOPRESENTEDIN“CONNECTINGTHESUN”ITTARGETSTOCOVERABOUT8OFTHEELECTRICITYDEMANDBY2020WHILETHISSCENARIOOFREACHING8BY2020LOOKSCOHERENTANDINLINEWITHOPTIMISTICMARKETEXPECTATIONS,REACHING12WOULDREQUIREAREALPARADIGMSHIFTINTHEWAYPVISSUPPORTEDANDINCENTIVISED,EVENAFTERCOMPETITIVENESSISREACHEDINMANYCOUNTRIESANDMARKETSEGMENTSITISCLEARTODAYTHATTHIS12SCENARIOISNOLONGERAREALISTICOPTIONANDWOULDREQUIRETREMENDOUSMARKETDEVELOPMENTS,UNSUPPORTEDBYPUBLICPOLICIESINEUROPEFORTHETIMEBEINGTHENREAPSASDEVISEDIN2009AREFARFROMTHEREALITYOFTODAYSPVMARKETAPARTFROMINGERMANYANDGREECE,MARKETEVOLUTIONINMOSTCOUNTRIESCOULDEASILYOVERTAKETHEACTIONPLANSFUTUREEXPECTATIONSLARGELYREFLECTTHECURRENTBALANCEOFINSTALLATIONS,WITHGERMANYANDITALYDOMINATINGTHEMARKETINTHEEUFORECASTS,THENREAPSTARGETSWITHTHEINTERMEDIARYVALUEFOR2015HAVEBEENTAKENINTOACCOUNTTHEEXTENTTOWHICHTHEYHAVEUNDERESTIMATEDTHEMARKETDEVELOPMENTSIN2010,2011ANDEVENFURTHERIN2012ISOBVIOUSPUTSIMPLY,THEPOTENTIALFOR2020ISATLEASTTWICEASHIGHASTHELEVELSFORESEENINTHENREAPS,PUSHINGTOWARDS200GWCAPACITYOREVENMOREINEUROPEBY2020POSSIBLEREVISIONSOFTHEACTIONPLANSWILLHAVETOTAKEINTOACCOUNTTHEFASTINCREASESININSTALLATIONSOVERTHELASTYEAREPIA1GLOBALMARKETOUTLOOKFORPHOTOVOLTAICS201320171293MARKETEVOLUTION6SUPPO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,00031,09530,81027,81030,00020,00010,000020122013201420152016201720132014201520162017MEA4106609201,3001,9002,4001,5002,7003,4004,5006,050CHINA5,0006,0007,0008,0008,00010,00010,00010,00011,00012,00015,000AMERICAS3,7585,7206,6608,79011,21012,7308,0909,10012,50015,39016,590APAC4,7695,7306,9408,6609,51010,36010,59012,48014,29017,00019,050EUROPE17,1599,7109,29010,08011,71012,81016,78018,36021,45025,38027,550TOTAL31,09527,81030,81036,83042,33048,30046,96052,64062,64074,27084,240341EPIA1GLOBALMARKETOUTLOOKFORPHOTOVOLTAICS201320173MARKETEVOLUTIONTHESURPASSINGOFTHE100GWMARKINTERMSOFCUMULATIVEGLOBALPVCAPACITYIN2012REPRESENTSAMAJORACHIEVEMENTOFTHEPVINDUSTRYINJUSTAFEWYEARSDEPENDINGONTHECONDITIONSOFTHEBUSINESSASUSUALSCENARIO,THE200GWMARKCOULDBEREACHEDINBETWEEN2014AND2016,WHILEINTHEPOLICYDRIVENSCENARIO,MORETHAN420GWOFPVSYSTEMSCOULDBECONNECTEDTOTHEGRIDOVERTHENEXTFIVEYEARSFIGURE22GLOBALPVCUMULATIVESCENARIOSUNTIL2017BUSINESSASUSUALANDPOLICYDRIVENMW450,000422,890400,000338,650350,000288,220300,000264,390239,920201,750250,000197,600200,000149,120160,770129,960150,000102,156100,00071,06140,67050,00023,60516,2299,52146,9462,8203,9525,360200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017EPIAPOLICYDRIVENEPIABUSINESSASUSUALHISTORICALDATAFIGURE23EVOLUTIONOFGLOBALPVCUMULATIVEINSTALLEDCAPACITYPERREGIONUNTIL2017MW450,000422,890HISTORICALEPIABUSINESSASUSUALEPIAPOLICYDRIVENDATA400,000338,650350,000288,220300,000264,390239,920250,000201,750197,600200,000160,770149,120129,960150,000102,156100,00050,000020122013201420152016201720132014201520162017ROW2,0982,0982,0982,0982,0982,0982,0982,0982,0982,0982,098MEA6011,2602,1803,4805,3807,7802,1004,8008,20012,70018,750CHINA8,30014,30021,30029,30037,30047,30018,30028,30039,30051,30066,300AMERICAS8,71714,43021,09029,88041,09053,82016,81025,90038,40053,79070,380APAC12,39718,13025,06033,72043,23053,59022,99035,47049,76066,76085,810EUROPE70,04379,75089,04099,120110,830123,64086,820105,180126,630152,010179,560TOTAL102,156129,960160,770197,600239,920288,220149,120201,750264,390338,650422,890FROM2012ONWARDS,THESEFIGURESAREDIRECTLYINTEGRATEDINTOTHOSEOFTHERELEVANTREGIONSEPIA1GLOBALMARKETOUTLOOKFORPHOTOVOLTAICS201320171353MARKETEVOLUTION2FORECASTSPERSEGMENTIN2012ROOFTOPSEGMENTSREPRESENTEDAROUND22GWOFTHETOTALINSTALLATIONS,WHILEUTILITYSCALEAPPLICATIONSREACHEDMORETHAN9GWBUTTHISSEGMENTATIONWILLSHIFTINTHECOMINGYEARSWITHTHEDEVELOPMENTOFPVINTHESUNBELTMARKETS,EPIAEXPECTSUTILITYSCALEPLANTSTOGROWMUCHFASTERTHANROOFTOPAPPLICATIONSTHEROOFTOPMARKETCOULDINTHEPOLICYDRIVENSCENARIODOUBLEFROM2012TO2017WHILETHEUTILITYSCALEMARKETCOULDINTHESAMESCENARIOQUADRUPLEFROM9TO37GWTHISCANBEEXPLAINEDBYTHENATUREOFTHEINVESTORSINTHEMOSTPROMISINGMARKETSANDTHEREDUCEDOPPOSITIONTOGROUNDMOUNTEDPVSYSTEMSCOMPAREDTOEUROPEINTHEBUSINESSASUSUALSCENARIO,THEROOFTOPMARKETCOULDDECLINEIN2013AND2014ANDSTAGNATEAROUNDTHELEVELSOF2012UNTIL2017FIGURE24GLOBALROOFTOPPVDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOSUNTIL2017MW48,00050,00043,33045,00040,00037,15035,00031,65029,43030,00027,00024,14025,00021,62221,42