1、Irwin/McGraw-HillChapter 4Managing Growth期刊雜志 http:/Irwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-2FIGURE 4-1 New Sales Require New Assets, Which Must Be FinancedNewborrowingsIncreases inOwners equityNew assetssupportingincreased salesAssetsLiabilities ando

2、wners equityIrwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-3FIGURE 4-2 A Graphical Representation of Sustainable Growth01020304050600510152025303540Return on assets (%)Growth rate in sales (%)Cash deficitsBalanced growthg* = 1.4 ROABalanced growthg* = 0.4 RO

3、ACash surplusesIrwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-4TABLE 4-1 A Sustainable Growth Analysis of Triad Guarantee Inc., 1994 - 199819941995199619971998Required ratios: Profit margin, P (%)38.5 37.9 37.3 38.5 38.7 Retention ratio, R (%)100.0 100.0 100

4、.0 100.0 100.0 Asset turnover, A (times)0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Financial leverage T (times)1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 Triads sustainable growth rate, g* (%)8.9 11.1 13.9 18.8 21.8 Triads actual growth rate, g (%)53.2 36.4 46.5 49.3 40.6 AssetTurnoverBoth 0.4 TimesOccurTriads sustainable growth rate in 1998 (%

5、)28.4 34.0 What If?26.1FinancialLeverage2.2 TimesIrwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-5FIGURE 4-3 Triad Guarantee Inc., Sustainable Growth Challenges, 1994 - 1998010203040506002468101214Return on assets (%)Growth rate in sales (%)199419951996199719

6、98Cash deficitsCash surplusesBalanced grow th 1994Balanced grow th 1998Irwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-6TABLE 4-2 Sources of Capital to U.S. Nonfinancial Corporations, 1965 - 1998InternalRetained profits15.1%Depreciation50.5% Subtotal65.6%Exte

7、rnalIncreased liabilities41.5%New equity issues-7.1% Subtotal34.4%Total100.0%Sources: Federal Reserve System, Flow of Funds Accounts, 1949-78, and Flow of Funds Accounts, various issues. Available at http:/www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/z1/htm.Irwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companie

8、s, Inc. All rights reserved.4-7FIGURE 4-4 Net New Equity Issues, 1965 - 1998-300-250-200-150-100-50050100Year196919741979198419891994Dollars in billionsU.S.JapanGermanyU.K.Sources: Federal Reserve System, Flow of Funds Accounts, 1949-78 and various issues; OECD, Financial Statistics, Part 2, Financi

9、al Accounts of OECD Countries, various issues.Irwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-8FIGURE 4-5 Gross New Equity Issues and Initial Public Offerings, 1970 -19980204060801001201401970197519801985199019952000Dollars in billionsGross new equityIPOsCont

10、inuedIrwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-9Note: New equity includes limited partnerships, preferred stock, and other equity.Sources: Federal Reserve Bulletin, Table 1.46, “Securities Markets and Corporate Finance,” various issues for gross new equ

11、ity issues; Securities Data Corporation as cited in Scott Reeves, “Best & Worst,” Barrons, December 15, 1997, for initial public offerings.FIGURE 4-5 (Concluded) FootnoteIrwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-10TABLE 4-3 The Timberland Company, Susta

12、inable Growth Calculations, 1995 - 19981995199619971998Required ratios: Profit margin, P (%)(1.8) 3.0 5.9 6.9 Retention ratio, R (%)100 100 100 100 Asset turnover, A (times)1.6 1.5 1.9 1.8 Financial leverage, T (times)2.8 3.2 2.5 2.2 Timberlands sustainable growth rate, g* (%)(7.8) 14.3 28.6 27.5 Timberlands actual growth rate, g (%)2.8 5.3 15.4 8.2 Irwin/McGraw-HillCopyright 2001 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.4-11FIGURE 4-6 Timberland Companys Sustainable Gr