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EuropeanHeatITWASthesummer,scientistsnowrealise,whenfelt.Weknewthatsummer2003wasremarkable:globalwarmingatlastmadeitselfunmistakablyBritainexperienceditsrecordhightemperatureandcontinentalEuropesawforestfiresragingoutofcontrol,greatriversdryingofatrickleandthousandsofheat-relateddeaths.Butjusthowremarkableisonlynow ThethreemonthsofJune,JulyandAugustwerethewarmesteverrecordedinwesternandcentralEurope,withrecordnationalhighsmPortugal,GermanyandSwitzerlandaswellasBritain.AndtheywerethewarmestbyaverylongwayOveragreatrectangularblockoftheearthstretchingfromwestofParistonorthernItaly,takinginSwitzerlandandsouthernGermany,theaveragetemperatureforthesummermonthswas3.78t:abovethelong-termnorm,saidtheClimaticResearchUnit(CRU)oftheUniversityofEastAngliainNorwich,whichisoneoftheworld'slendinginstitutionsforthemonitoringand ysisoftemperaturerecords.Thatexcessmightnotseemalotuntilyouarcawareofthecontext—butthenyourealiseitisenormous.Thereisnothinglikethisinpreviousdata,anywhere.ItisconsideredsoexceptionalthatProfessorPhilJones,theCRU’sdirector,ispreparedtosayopenly-inawayfewscientistshavedonebefore-thatthe2003extrememaybedirectlyattributed,nottonaturalclimatevariability,buttoglobalwarmingcausedbyhumanactions.Meteorologistshavehithertocontentedthemselveswiththeformulathatrecenttemperaturesareconsistentwithpredictions”ofclimatechange.Forthegreatblockofthe—thatstretchingbetween35-50Nand0-20E—theCRUhasreliabletemperaturerecordsdatingbackto1781.Usingasabaselinetheaveragesummertemperaturerecordedbetween1961and1990,departuresfromthetemperaturenorm,or“anomalies”:overtheareaasawholecaneasilybeplotted.Asthegraphshows,suchisthevariabilityofourclimatethatoverthepast200years,therehavebeenatleasthalfadozenanomalies,intermsofexcesstemperature—thepeaksonthegraphdenotingveryhotyears—approaching,orevenexceeding,20C.Buttherehasbeennothingremoylike2003,whentheanomalyisnearlyfourdegrees.“Thisisquiteremarkable,"ProfessorJonestoldTheIndependent."It'sveryunusualinastatisticalsense.Ifthisserieshadanormalstatisticaldistribution,youwouldn'tgetthisnumber.Thereturnperiod“howoftenitcouldbeexpectedtorecur",wouldbesomethinglikeoneinathou-sandyears.Ifwelookatanexcessabovetheaverageofnearlyfourdegrees,thenperhapsnearlythreedegreesofthatisnaturalvariability,becausewe’veseenthatinpastsummers.Butthefinaldegreeofitislikelytobeduetoglobalwarming,causedbyhumanactions.Thesummerof2003has,inasense,beenonethatclimatescientistshavelongbeenexpecting.Untilnow,thewarminghasbeenmanifestingitselfmainlyinwintersthathavebeenlesscoldthaninsummersthathavebeenmuchhotter.Lastweek,theUnitedNationspredictedthatwinterswerewarmingsoquicklythatwintersportswoulddieoutinEurope’slower-levelskiresorts.Butsoonerorlaterthesummerwasboundtocome,andthisyearitdid.Oneofthemostdramaticfeaturesofthesummerwasthehotnights,especiallyinthefirsthalfofAugustInParis,thetemperatureneverdroppedbelow230C;(73.40F)atallbetween7and14August,andthecityrecordeditswarmest-evernighton11-12August,whenthemercurydidnotdropbelow25.50C(77.90F).Germanyrecordeditswarmest-evernightatWeinbietintheRhinevalleywithalowestfigureof27.60C(80.60F)on13August,andsimilarrecord-breakingnight-timetemperatureswererecordedinSwitzerlandandItaly.The15,000excessdeathsinFranceduringAugust,comparedwithpreviousyears,havebeenrelatedtothehighnight-timetemperatures.Thenumbergraduallyincreasedduringthefirst12daysofthemonth,peakingatabout2,000perdayonthenightof12-13August,thenfelloffdramaticallyafter14Augustwhentheminimumtemperaturesfellbyabout50C.Theelderlyweremostaffected,witha70percentincreaseinmortalityrateinthoseaged75-94.ForBritain,theyearasawholeislikelytobethewarmesteverrecorded,butdespitethehightemperaturerecordon10August,thesummeritself—definedastheJune,JulyandAugustperiod—stillcomesbehind1976and1995,whentherewerelongerperiodsofintenseheat,Atthemoment,theyearisoncoursetobethethird-hottesteverintheglobaltemperaturerecord,whichgoesbackto1856,behind1998and2002butwhenalltherecordsforOctober,NovemberandDecemberarecollated,itmightmoveintosecondplace.ProfessorJonessaid.The10hottestyearsintherecordhaveallnowoccurredsince1990.ProfessorJonesisinnodoubtabouttheastonishingnatureofEuropeansummerof2003."Thetemperaturesrecordedwereoutofallproportiontothepreviousrecord,"hesaid.”Itwasthewarmestsummerinthepast500yearsandprobablywaythatItwasenormouslyexceptional."HiscolleaguesattheUniversityofEastAnglia'sTyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearcharenowplanningaspecialstudyofit."Itwasasummerthathasnot:beenexperiencedbefore,eitherintermsofthetemperatureextremesthatwerereachEd,ortherangeanddiversityoftheimpactsoftheextremeheat,"saidthecentre’sexecutivedirector,ProfessorMikeHulme."Itwillcertainlyhaveleftitsmarkonanumberofcountries,astohowtheythinkandplanforclimatechangeinthefuture,muchasthe2000floodshaverevolutionisedthewaytheernmentisthinkingaboutfloodingintheUK."The2003heatwavewillhavesimilarrepercussionsacrossEurope."Questions14-DothefollowingstatementsagreewiththeinformationgiveninReadingPassage2?Inboxes14-19onyouranswersheet,write ifthestatementis ifthestatementisNOT iftheinformationisnotgivenintheTheaveragesummertemperaturein2003isapproximayfourdegreeshigherthanthatofthepast.JonesbelievesthetemperaturestatisticiswithinthenormalHumanfactorisoneofthereasonsthatcausedhotInlargecity,peopleusuallymeasuretemperaturetwiceaGlobalwarminghasobviouseffectofwarmerwinterinsteadofhottersummerbeforeNewskiresortsaretobebuiltonahigh-altitudeQuestions20-AnswerthequestionsbelowusingNOMORETHANTHREEWORDSAND/ORNUMBERSfromthepassageforeachanswer.Writeyouranswersinboxes20-21onyouranswersheet20WhatarethetwohottestyearsinBritainbesidesWhatwillaffect ernmentpoliciesbesidesclimatechangeaccordingtoHulmeQuestions22-Completeth

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