中國(guó)全要素生產(chǎn)率估算與分析

MeasurementandAnalysisofTFPinChina鄭京海哥德堡大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)系（瑞典）JinghaiZhengDepartmentofEconomicsGothenburgUniversitySweden內(nèi)容提要生產(chǎn)率概念的由來(lái)全要素生產(chǎn)率的估算與拆分全要素生產(chǎn)率與企業(yè)改革全要素生產(chǎn)率與可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中國(guó)省際全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)變化的實(shí)證分析前蘇聯(lián)和亞洲四小龍的案例影響全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的因素中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式的轉(zhuǎn)變一、生產(chǎn)率概念的由來(lái):(1)投入產(chǎn)出率Totalfactorproductivityistheaverageproductofallinputs,itistheratiooftheoutputtoanindexofinputs.LettheindexofinputsbedenotedasX.Thentotalfactorproductivity(TFP)is

TFP=y/XDifferentiatingbothsideslogarithmicallywithrespecttotimegives

以成本份額加權(quán)平均IfdefineNotice以成本在產(chǎn)值中的比重加權(quán)：Divisiaindex(2)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)與技術(shù)進(jìn)步Astablerelationshipbetweenoutput,inputs,andtimeexists:Rateoftechnicalchangeisdefinedas:DivisiaindexesandrateoftechnicalchangeTotaldifferentiationofwithrespecttotimeyieldsDividingthroughbyygivesUnderprofitmaximization,outputelassticityequalsinputSharesintotalrevenue:orDivisiainputindex應(yīng)用實(shí)例：技術(shù)進(jìn)步與總量生產(chǎn)函數(shù)(Solow,1957)增長(zhǎng)核算公式Technicalchangeisashiftintheproductionfunction(3)管理（技術(shù)）效率與全要素生產(chǎn)率Farrell(1957)技術(shù)效率度量一般化的Farrell技術(shù)效率度量(F?rsund&Hjalmarsson,1979)數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析(DEA)模型CCR模型（Charnes,Cooper,&Rhodes,1978）BCC模型（Banker,Charnes,&Cooper,1984）ADD模型（Charnes,etal,1985）DEA模型與回歸模型的比較TheCCRratiomodel(inputoriented,1978)

ThelineartransformationoftheCCRratioforarepresentativesolutionThedualtothelineartransformationEnvelopmentsurfacefortheinput-orientedCCRmodelTheOutput-OrientedCCRmodelSuportinghyperplanefortheoutput-orientedCCRmodelRestrictionsonparametersinDEACRS:norestrictionsVRS:Nonincreasingreturnstoscale(NIRS):CRS,NIRS,andVRSGeneralstatisticsabouttheDEAbibliographydatabase(Tavaresa,2002).DEApublicationsnumberbytype.DEApublicationsnumberbyyearAuthorstatistics二、全要素生產(chǎn)率的估算與拆分增長(zhǎng)核算法(DevisiaIndex)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)估算法平均生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法（技術(shù)進(jìn)步）前沿生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法（技術(shù)效率）Malmquist指數(shù)法拆分(paneldata)技術(shù)進(jìn)步技術(shù)效率改善規(guī)模效率變化技術(shù)效率、距離函數(shù)、DEA、和

Malmquist生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)之間的關(guān)系Technicalefficiency(Farrell,1957)Technicalprogress(Sollow,1957)Distancefunction(Shephard,1970)DEA(Charnes,Cooper,&Rhodes,1978).TFPdecomposition(Nishimizu&Page,1982)Malmquistindex(Caves,et.al,1982)MalmquistTFPindexdecomposition(F?reetal,1994)TechnicalEfficiency(1957)TechnicalProgress(1957)DistanceFunction(1970)DEA(1978)T?rnqvistIndex(1976)GeometricMeanofMalmquistIndexes(1982)MalmquistIndex(1982)TFPDecomposition(1982)MalmquistTFPIndexdecomposition(1992,1994)DevisiaindexFarrellmeasureShephardCCRDiewertCCDNishimizu&PageF?reetal(FGNZ)CCDPaneldataStochasticfrontierDeterministicparametricfrontierTimetrendaroadmapMalmquist生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)的定義Malmquist生產(chǎn)率指數(shù)的拆分TheMalmquistoutput-basedindexoftotalfactorproductivityandoutputdistancefunctions生產(chǎn)率拆分的幾何意義經(jīng)驗(yàn)估算的實(shí)施（線性規(guī)劃）模型1經(jīng)驗(yàn)估算的實(shí)施（線性規(guī)劃）模型2三、全要素生產(chǎn)率與企業(yè)改革

（Zheng,Liu,&Bigsten,2003)六百多家國(guó)有企業(yè)（1980-1994）采用Malmquist指數(shù)法拆分生產(chǎn)率樣本企業(yè)的技術(shù)效率普遍較低（50-70%）盡管生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)顯著，但以技術(shù)進(jìn)步為主大型國(guó)企技術(shù)進(jìn)步率明顯高于其他企業(yè)最佳實(shí)踐企業(yè)多位于沿海地區(qū)工資激勵(lì)和職工學(xué)歷對(duì)生產(chǎn)率有促進(jìn)作用ModelSelectionProcessDeterminantsoftechnicalefficiencyandbestpractice(Zheng,Liu,&Bigsten,2003)Determinantsofproductivitygrowth,efficiencychange,andtechnicalprogressProbabilityofproductivitygrowth,efficiencychange,andtechnicalprogress四、全要素生產(chǎn)率與可持續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)Solow增長(zhǎng)模型顯示在推動(dòng)人均GDP增長(zhǎng)的兩個(gè)要素，資本和生產(chǎn)率之間，資本驅(qū)動(dòng)型的增長(zhǎng)是不可持續(xù)的。也就是說(shuō)，在資本勞動(dòng)比達(dá)到一定水平后，人均GDP的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)停滯。盡管進(jìn)一步增加儲(chǔ)蓄率可以打破這一停滯，但經(jīng)過(guò)一個(gè)時(shí)期后仍會(huì)在另一個(gè)人均GDP水平上出現(xiàn)新的停滯。這是由于在此類(lèi)模型中人們通常假定資本的邊際產(chǎn)出率遞減。更為主要的是儲(chǔ)蓄率不可能無(wú)限地增加。而由不斷地提高生產(chǎn)率來(lái)帶動(dòng)的增長(zhǎng)則是可持續(xù)性的。這是因?yàn)閺睦碚撋现v生產(chǎn)率的提高可以是無(wú)限的。TheSolow-Swan經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模型

（withtechnicalchange）人均資本裝備率的動(dòng)態(tài)方程穩(wěn)態(tài)人均收入取決于技術(shù)進(jìn)步率(TFP)集約型與粗放式增長(zhǎng)模式的區(qū)別AfewclarificationsontheconceptofTFP(G)TFPgrowthoccurswhentechnologyprogressesandefficiencyimproves.Theformerisusuallyalong-runconceptinthecontextofgrowththeory,andthelattercanbeashort-runphenomenon.AhighTFPgrowthisnotnecessarilyprofitable.TFPgrowthshouldnotbeusedasatargetineconomicplanning,butmightbeestimatedforforecastingpurpose.AhighTFPgrowthmaynotbealwaysdesirable,butoneshouldbedefinatelyworriedwithasustainedperiodoflowornegativegrowthinTFP.五、中國(guó)省際全要素生產(chǎn)率的實(shí)證分析改革時(shí)期的省際數(shù)據(jù)（1979-2001）Malmquist指數(shù)法1978－95年間為省際TFP高增長(zhǎng)期（4.6%）技術(shù)進(jìn)步為主1996－01年期出現(xiàn)省際TFP低增長(zhǎng)期（0.6%）技術(shù)進(jìn)步速度減慢、技術(shù)效率有所下降總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效率：工業(yè)中存在的問(wèn)題PolicyburdensSub-optimalscaleinproductionLimitedcapacitytoinnovateWeakfinancialdisciplineShelteredfirmsvs.Lessfavoredfirms總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效率：金融系統(tǒng)存在的問(wèn)題CreditisinsufficientlyallocatedLackofexternaldisciplineItisstillmostlystateownedLargeproportionofNon-performingloansAviciouscircle:SOEfinancialsectorSOEfinancialsector總體經(jīng)濟(jì)效率：省際生產(chǎn)的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)因素TwentyyearsofeconomicreforminthePRChaveresultedinafragmentedinternalmarketwithfiefdomscontrolledbylocalofficialswhoseeconomicandpoliticaltiestoprotectedindustryresemblethoseoftheLatinAmericaneconomiesofpastdecades.(Young,2000)The“Discovery”ofRecentProductivitySlowDown

(Source：Hu&Zheng，StateoftheNationReprot,2004)Unit：%

1952-781978-951995-20012003Population2.01.40.90.6GDP4.79.88.29.1

GDPpercapita2.78.47.38.5Employment2.62.61.20.9LaborProductivity2.17.27.08.2CapitalStock11.59.311.815.8HumanCapital4.12.22.82.8CapitalProductivity-6.80.5-3.6-6.7Capitalpercapita8.96.710.614.9TFPa-1.94.64(47.3)2.28(27.8)1.11(12.2)TFPb

3.95(40.3)1.30(15.9)0.27(3.0)TFPc

3.26(33.3)0.32(3.9)-1.12TFPGrowthanditsComponentsduringDifferentPeriodsPeriodsTFPGrowthTechnicalEfficiencyChangeTechnicalProgressMeanStdMeanStdMeanStd1979-19901.04940.01390.99020.01121.06050.00651991-20011.01850.02150.99690.01311.02160.01591979-19951.04630.01280.99320.01131.05420.00591996-20011.00600.02560.99360.01381.01240.01721979-19841.07650.01910.98470.01391.09380.01001985-19901.02220.01720.99580.01621.02720.00841991-19951.03720.02341.00200.02251.03540.01661996*-20011.00600.02560.99360.01381.01240.0172BestPracticeProvincesoverTime(1979-2001)YearBestPracticeProvincesYearBestPracticeProvinces1979SH1991SH,ZJ,GD1980SH,ZJ1992SH,ZJ,GD1981SH,ZJ1993SH,ZJ,GD1982SH,ZJ1994SH,ZJ,FJ,GD1983SH,ZJ1995SH,ZJ,FJ,GD1984SH,ZJ1996SH,JS,FJ1985SH,ZJ1997SH,JS,FJ1986SH,ZJ1998SH,JS,FJ1987SH,ZJ1999SH,JS,AH,FJ1988SH,ZJ2000SH,JS,AH,FJ1989SH,GD2001SH,JS,AH,FJ1990SH,ZJ,GD

Shiftsoffrontiersandchangesinthedistributionofcapital-laborratiosRegionalEfficiencydistributioninChina(1979)RegionalEfficiencydistributioninChina(1990)RegionalEfficiencydistributioninChina(2001)六、前蘇聯(lián)和亞洲四小龍的案例：

粗放型增長(zhǎng)方式與衰退性經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)

粗放經(jīng)營(yíng)的最嚴(yán)重后果是社會(huì)生產(chǎn)效率低并不斷下降，使整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)變成一種“耗費(fèi)型”經(jīng)濟(jì)。戈?duì)柊蛦谭虺姓J(rèn)，“就工業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率來(lái)說(shuō)，蘇聯(lián)比美國(guó)落后3/5，就農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率來(lái)說(shuō)，蘇聯(lián)比美國(guó)落后4/5。”這就是說(shuō)，蘇聯(lián)的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率只及美國(guó)的40%，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率只及美國(guó)的20%。蘇聯(lián)解體前的30年，社會(huì)生產(chǎn)效率的重要指標(biāo)──基金產(chǎn)值率明顯下降，1960年每盧布固定生產(chǎn)基金生產(chǎn)的國(guó)民收入為72戈比，1988年降為36戈比，下降50%。投資效率也呈現(xiàn)同樣的趨勢(shì)，每盧布基本建設(shè)投資的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長(zhǎng)額，1961－1965年為1.04盧布，1971－1975年降為83戈比，1981－1985年又降為44戈比。這些數(shù)字表明，在蘇聯(lián)要獲得同樣的產(chǎn)出，80年代比60年代需要加倍的投入才能達(dá)到，社會(huì)生產(chǎn)的單位增長(zhǎng)須靠投資的加倍增長(zhǎng)來(lái)維持。這種不斷擴(kuò)大的倍增的耗費(fèi)是任何經(jīng)濟(jì)都承受不起的，總有一天當(dāng)投資不能相應(yīng)加倍增長(zhǎng)時(shí)，或投資減少時(shí)，生產(chǎn)就會(huì)減速、停滯以至負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。

摘自《超級(jí)大國(guó)的崩潰──蘇聯(lián)解體原因探析》作者：許新等1.SovietEconomicGrowth:1928-1985(Ofer,1987)Growthrecordscompared(annualgrowthrates)ExplaininggrowthinSovietUnion(1928-85)Sovietgrowthisgeneratedbyhighrisesininputsanddeclininggrowthofoverallinputproductivity.Duringtheentireperiodinputsgrewat3.2%andcontributed76%oftotalGNPgrowth.Factorproductivitygrew1.1%ayear,acccountingforonly24%oftotalgrowth.Therelativecontributionofinputstogrowthgrewto80percentinthepostwarperiodandbecameitssolecomponentfrom1970on,whenproductivitycompletelystagnatedorevenretreated.ExtensivegrowthandproductivityThepatternofSovietgrowthiscalledextensivegrowthintheSovietandWesternliterature.Itsmaincharacteristicisingeneratinggrowthmostlythroughtheexpansionofinputsandonlymarginallythroughrisesinproductivity.EmphasisoninputgrowthhasbeenastratgicdecisionofSovietpolicymakersfromthebeginning.therelativelysmallcontributionofproductivitygrowth,isclearlyanundesirableandunintendedoutcoome.2.TheEastAsianproductivitydebate

(Krugman,1994)ThenewlyindustrializingcountriesofAsia,liketheSovietUnionofthe1950s,haveachievedrapidgrowthinlargepartthroughanastonishingmobilizationofresources.Onceoneaccountsfortheroleofrapidlygrowinginputsinthsecountries’growth,onefindslittlelefttoexplain.Asiangrowth,likethatoftheSovietUnioninitshigh-growthera,seemstobedrivenbyextraordinarygrowthininputslikelaborandcapitalratherthanbygainsinefficiency.TheEastAsiancases(Young,1995)

HongKong(1961-1991)Singapore(1966-1990)TFPgrowth:SouthKorea(1960-1990)TFPgrowth:Taiwan(1966-1990)Young’sconclusionOnceoneaccountsforthedramaticriseinfactorinputs,onearrivesatestimatedtotalfactorproductivitygrowthratesthatarecloselyapproximatedbythehistoricalperformanceofmanyoftheOECDandLatinAmericaneconomies.WhilethegrowthofoutputandmanufacturingexportsinthenewlyindustrializingcountriesofEastAsiaisvirtuallyunprecedented,thegrowthoftotalfactorproductivityintheseeconomiesisnot.3.China(WorldBank,1997) ThreefeaturesofChina’srapidgrowthThefirstisitsregionaldimentionThesecondisthesharpcyclicalpatternofeconomicgrowth.ThethirdnoteworthfeatureofChina’sgrowthsince1978isitsrelianceonproductivitygrowth.China2020(WorldBank,1997)RelativetootherrapidlygrowingAsianeconomies,China’sgrowthhasbeenlessdependentonvolumeincreasesininputsofcapitalandlabor.Consider,forexample,,growthinthestockofpysicalcapital.InmostcountriesgrowthincapitalinputsexceedsGDPgrowth,oftenbyasubstantialmargin.InChinathereverseoccurred,suggestingthatfactorsotherthancapitalaccumulationhavebeenimportantdeterminantsofGDPgrowth.AccountingforChina’sgrowthYoung(2003)AcceptingallthenumbersthestatisticiansofthePRCproduce,butmakingsystematicadjustmentsusingtheirowndata,Ishowthatonecana)Reducethegrowthrateduringthereformperiodtolevelspreviouslyexperiencedbyotherrapidlygrowingeconomies,sothatb)Onceonetakesintoaccountrisinglaborforceparticipation,thetransferoflaboroutofagriculture,andimprovementsineducationalattainment,TFPgrowthinthenon-agriculturaleconomyisfoundtobe1.4%peryear;arespectableperformance,butbynomeansextraordinary.(Young,2003)Chinesegrowthrates,1978-1998Source:Young(2003)TotalfactorproductivitychangeinChina’sfarmingsector:1952-1989(Wen,1993)FivestudieswereinvolvedTang(1982)Lin(1990)Hayami&Ruttan(1985)Wiens(1982)Wong(1986)Factorshares&TFPestimateswerecompared.China’sagriculture(Wen1993)ProductivityinChineseindustry(1980-1996)

(Jeffeson,etal,2000)Long-termproductivityincrease,withgrowthratesdecliningduringthe1990’s.Productivityoutcomesoutsidethestateandcollectivesectorsaremodest,withsharholdingenterprisessufferingproductivitydeclines.AverageannualgrowthofTFP(1980-1996)胡鞍鋼：近年來(lái)“資本深化”加速在1995-2001年間，中國(guó)GDP年增長(zhǎng)率為8.2%，低于1978-1995年的增長(zhǎng)率（9.8%）；人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率為7.3%，也低于1978-1995年期間的水平（8.4%）；勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率年增長(zhǎng)率為7.0%，略低于前一時(shí)期（7.2%）；資本存量增長(zhǎng)率為11.8%，明顯高于前一時(shí)期（9.3%）；就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)為1.2%，更是低于前一時(shí)期（2.4%）；人力資本（指15歲以上人口受教育年限）為2.8%，略高于前一時(shí)期（為2.2%）；資本生產(chǎn)率為負(fù)增長(zhǎng)（-3.6%），而前一時(shí)期為0.5%；人均勞動(dòng)力占資本存量年增長(zhǎng)率為10.6%，為建國(guó)以來(lái)最高、最快，說(shuō)明“資本深化”過(guò)程加速。張軍：過(guò)度投資和過(guò)度競(jìng)爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致低效率中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在經(jīng)歷了20世紀(jì)80年代的增長(zhǎng)和1992-1994年的超常規(guī)增長(zhǎng)之后，資本形成中所累積的一系列低效率問(wèn)題就開(kāi)始顯露端倪。導(dǎo)致這個(gè)結(jié)果出現(xiàn)的主要原因是那個(gè)眾所周知的過(guò)度投資和過(guò)度競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的混合型轉(zhuǎn)軌體制。由于過(guò)度的投資和過(guò)度的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，企業(yè)的技術(shù)選擇顯示出資本替代勞動(dòng)的偏差，使技術(shù)路徑逐步偏離了要素的自然結(jié)構(gòu)，資本-勞動(dòng)比率持續(xù)上升，加快了資本的深化過(guò)程，導(dǎo)致了投資收益率的持續(xù)而顯著的惡化。認(rèn)為中國(guó)改革期間導(dǎo)致了國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)分割，地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)背離了自身的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)（Yang2000)。China’sproductivityslowdownEvidencefromprovincialdata(1979-2001):

TFPgrowthanditscomponentsSource:Zheng&Hu(2004),Meansareweightedaverages七、影響全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的因素PhysicalcapitalHumancapitalLaborforcereallocationEconomicreformOpennessSocialcapitalInfras