減重風(fēng)起，對(duì)消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)有哪些潛在影響？分析師張立聰S1450517070005S1450518120001趙國(guó)防S1450521120008羅乾生S1450522010002S1450522030005李奕臻S1450520020001韓星雨S1450522080002S1450521070002陳偉浩S1450523050002馮俊曦S1450520010002S1450522110001連國(guó)強(qiáng)S1450523020002邢樂(lè)涵S1450523010001陸偲聰S1450522100001胡家東聯(lián)系人S1450122020044王玲瑤S1450523070003侯雅楠、萬(wàn)雨萌、夏心怡、都春竹商社行業(yè)首席分析師王朔：3.53.02.52.00.50.03.32.52.42.32.22.12.0201820192020202120222023E2030EBMI正常值人群比例（%） BMI偏低人群比例（%）BMI偏高人群比例（%）454025202015201620172018201920202021利拉魯肽注射液華東醫(yī)藥GLP-1R2023/7/5HEC88473注射液GLP-1R/FGF-212期2023/8/17貝那魯肽注射液仁會(huì)生物GLP-1R2023/7/27GZR18注射液甘李藥業(yè)GLP-1R2期2023/6/7替爾泊肽注射液禮來(lái)生物GLP-1R/GIPRNDA2023/8/21GMA105注射液鴻運(yùn)華寧GLP-1R2期2022/6/27司美格魯肽注射液諾和諾德GLP-1RNDA2023/6/3BI456906注射液勃林格殷格翰GLP-1R/GCGR2期2021/4/7注射用IBI362信達(dá)生物GLP-1R/GCGR2022/10/4BGM0504注射液博瑞生物GLP-1R/GIPR2期2023/10/10XW003注射液先為達(dá)生物GLP-1R2023/3/15注射用LY3437943禮來(lái)GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR2022/9/27LY3502970（Orforglipron）膠囊禮來(lái)GLP-1R2023/8/11注射用DR10624華東醫(yī)藥GLP-1R/GCGR/FGFR12023/8/31CagriSema諾和諾德GLP-1R/AMY32023/7/5ZT002注射液質(zhì)肽生物GLP-1R2023/7/26諾利糖肽注射液恒瑞醫(yī)藥GLP-1R2期2021/3/8UBT251注射液聯(lián)邦制藥GLP-1R/GIP/GCGR2023/9/20TG103注射液石藥集團(tuán)GLP-1R2期2022/3/9RAY1225注射液眾生睿創(chuàng)GLP-1R/GIPR2023/4/14MDR-001片德睿智藥GLP-1R2期2023/6/19PB-718注射液派格生物GLP-1R/GCGR2023/5/31HS-20094注射液豪森藥業(yè)GLP-1R/GIPR2期2023/10/10MWN101注射液GLP-1R/GCGR/GIPR2023/6/9HRS9531注射液恒瑞醫(yī)藥GLP-1R/GIPR2期2023/9/2621%內(nèi)分泌失調(diào)三餐不定暴飲暴食喜甜食/油炸食品生活作息習(xí)慣27%38%44%47%48%48%50%21%內(nèi)分泌失調(diào)三餐不定暴飲暴食喜甜食/油炸食品生活作息習(xí)慣27%38%44%47%48%48%50%60%油炸的64%2022年體重超重原因TOP5益普索消費(fèi)者調(diào)查中認(rèn)為是不健康 辣的 辣的蛋白質(zhì)含量不足的碳水含量高的熱量高的營(yíng)養(yǎng)不均衡的脂肪含量高的烤的味道過(guò)咸的糖分多的/味道過(guò)甜的27.9%27.9%35.5%36.6%47.3%48.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0%20%40%60%胰島素敏感性↑收縮力↑心輸出量↑胰島素敏感性↑收縮力↑心輸出量↑心肌存活↑心臟保護(hù)↑葡萄糖攝取↑骨葡萄糖利用↑血管舒張↑葡萄糖攝取↑骨形成↑左心室功能↑血壓↑↓→心率↑↓→骨質(zhì)↑ANP生成↑尿鈉排泄↑胰島素分泌↑大腦食物攝取↓水?dāng)z取↓學(xué)習(xí)和記憶能力↑胰島素合成↑神經(jīng)保護(hù)↑炎癥↓獎(jiǎng)賞行為↓食欲↓凋亡↓胰高血糖素分泌↓Beta細(xì)胞增殖↑t肝臟凋亡↓糖異生↓Beta細(xì)胞存活↑GLP-1脂肪肝↓尿鈉排泄↑0反式脂肪酸0色素0香精低糖無(wú)糖低脂0添加無(wú)鹽0%20%40%60%80%100%120%30025020050070%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%200080060040020004000350030002500200020008006004002000400035003000250020005000120%100%80%60%40%20%0%餐行業(yè)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模及增速速20172018201920202021E300%250%200%50%0%服飾：優(yōu)異的減重效果有望帶動(dòng)“衣柜翻新”0-5-10-15-20-25-30GLP-1RGLP-1R肽GLP-1RGIPR/GLP-1RSURMOUNT-1-8-16.0-8-16.0-17.4-20.9-24.2600050006000400030002000025%20%15%10%5%0%-5%8006004002000 CAGR:25%CAGR:20%73911052018201920202021E2022E2030E生活美容塑形,20%非侵入式醫(yī)美侵入式醫(yī)美塑形,70% 銀械礎(chǔ)筑色力通筑用油算地信子媒合保鐵車(chē)行炭銀械礎(chǔ)筑色力通筑用油算地信子媒合保鐵車(chē)行炭0%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-7%-8%通裝飾本周松煬資源上漲12.0%AR/VR板塊回調(diào)202001202003202005202007202009202011202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309202001202003202005202007202009202011202101202103202105202107202109202111202201202203202205202207202209202211202301202303202305202307202309空調(diào)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)量（左軸）800600400200050%8006004002000-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%202001202002202003202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202001202002202003202004202005202006202007202008202009202010202011202012202101202102202103202104202105202106202107202108202109202110202111202112202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301202302202303202304202305202306202307202308202309海爾格力其他奧克斯海爾格力其他90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%行業(yè)整體平臺(tái)電商專(zhuān)業(yè)電商40%30%20%-10%-20%-30%-40%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309格力美的海爾其它90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%202002202005202008202011202102202105202108202111202202202205202208202211202302202305202308格力美的海爾行業(yè)整體50%40%30%20%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%202001202004202007202010202101202104202107202110202201202204202207202210202301202304202307行業(yè)整體平臺(tái)電商專(zhuān)業(yè)電商30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309格力美的海爾行業(yè)整體30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309行業(yè)整體平臺(tái)電商專(zhuān)業(yè)電商30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309海爾美的海信系其它90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%202003202006202009202012202103202106202109202112202203202206202209202212202303202306202309海爾美的海信系行業(yè)整體30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309行業(yè)整體平臺(tái)電商專(zhuān)業(yè)電商30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309海爾美的海信系行業(yè)整體20%-5%-10%-15%-20%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309-10%-20%-10%-20%行業(yè)整體平臺(tái)電商專(zhuān)業(yè)電商30%20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309海爾美的系西門(mén)子其它90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%202001202004202007202010202101202104202107202110202201202204202207202210202301202304202307海爾美的系西門(mén)子行業(yè)整體50%40%30%20%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305行業(yè)整體平臺(tái)電商專(zhuān)業(yè)電商30%20%-10%-20%-30%202001202005202009202101202105202109202201202205202209202301202305202309海爾美的系西門(mén)子行業(yè)整體30%20%0%-10%-20%-30%20200120200520200920210120210520210920220120220520220920230120230520230920200120200220200320200420200520200120200220200320200420200520200620200720200820200920201020201120201220210120210220210320210420210520210620210720210820210920211020211120211220220120220220220320220420220520220620220720220820220920221020221120221220230120230220230320230420230520230620230720230820230960%50%40%30%20%居民電價(jià)（歐分/kWh）居民燃?xì)鈨r(jià)格（歐分/kWh）燃?xì)鈨r(jià)格/電價(jià)（右軸）402520504003503002502000現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格3個(gè)月期貨價(jià)格2022012022022022032022042022052022062022072022082022092022102022112022122023012023022023032023042023052023062023072023082023092020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10-全國(guó)整車(chē)貨運(yùn)流量指數(shù)2023年10月week3主要城市周平均最高氣溫同比變化2020/022020/072020/122020/172020/222020/272020/322020/372020/422020/472020/522021/42021/92021/142021/192021/242021/292021/342021/392021/442021/492022/22022/72022/122022/172022/222022/272022/322022/372022/422022/472022/522023/52023/102023/152023/202023/252023/302023/352023/402020/022020/072020/122020/172020/222020/272020/322020/372020/422020/472020/522021/42021/92021/142021/192021/242021/292021/342021/392021/442021/492022/22022/72022/122022/172022/222022/272022/322022/372022/422022/472022/522023/52023/102023/152023/202023/252023/302023/352023/4045%35%25%15% 5% -5%-15%-25%-35%-45%-55%-65%特別調(diào)整2020/022020/072020/122020/172020/222020/272020/322020/372020/422020/472020/522021/42021/92021/142021/192021/242021/292021/342021/392021/442021/492022/22022/72022/122022/172022/222022/272022/322022/372022/422022/472022/522023/52023/102023/152023/202023/252023/302023/352023/402020/022020/072020/122020/172020/222020/272020/322020/372020/422020/472020/522021/42021/92021/142021/192021/242021/292021/342021/392021/442021/492022/22022/72022/122022/172022/222022/272022/322022/372022/422022/472022/522023/52023/102023/152023/202023/252023/302023/352023/4070%50%30%-10%-30%-50%特別調(diào)整4283單位：美元/噸100%單位：美元/噸100%80%60%40%20%-20%-40%80006000400020000LME3個(gè)月銅期貨收盤(pán)價(jià)（左軸）YoY（右軸）10月19日單價(jià)8004美元 去年同期單價(jià)7365美元10月19日單價(jià)8004美元2020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02單位：美元/噸去年同期單價(jià)2180美元80%60%單位：美元/噸去年同期單價(jià)2180美元80%60%40%20%-20%-40%-60%4500400035003000250020005000LME3個(gè)月鋁期貨收盤(pán)價(jià)（左軸）YoY（右軸） 10月19日單價(jià)2177美元2020-01-162020-03-162020-05-162020-07-162020-09-162020-11-162021-01-162021-03-162021-05-162021-07-162021-09-162021-11-162022-01-162022-03-162022-05-162022-07-162022-09-162022-11-162023-01-162023-03-162023-05-162023-07-162023-09-16去年同期中間價(jià)7.1去年同期中間價(jià)7.1美7.0元兌6.8人幣間6.010月20日中間價(jià)7.210月20日中間價(jià)7.22020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-022020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02滬深港通持股占流通A股比例（%）2520502020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02滬深港通持股占流通A股比例（%）252050格力電器海爾智家海信視像TCL科技格力電器海爾智家海信視像TCL科技2020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02滬深港通持股占流通A股比例（%）2020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022020-11-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022021-11-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022022-11-022023-01-022023-03-022023-05-022023-07-022023-09-02滬深港通持股占流通A股比例（%）蘇泊爾科沃斯石頭科技老板電器蘇泊爾科沃斯石頭科技864202020-01-092020-02-142020-03-132020-04-132020-05-142020-06-112020-07-132020-08-102020-01-092020-02-142020-03-132020-04-132020-05-142020-06-112020-07-132020-08-102020-09-072020-10-132020-11-102020-12-082021-01-062021-02-032021-03-102021-04-082021-05-112021-06-082021-07-072021-08-042021-09-012021-10-082021-11-052021-12-032021-12-312022-02-072022-03-072022-04-062022-05-092022-06-072022-07-052022-08-022022-08-302022-09-292022-11-032022-11-302022-12-282023-02-022023-03-022023-03-302023-04-282023-05-312023-06-302023-07-282023-08-252023-09-22外資持股占自由流通股比例（%）格力電器美的集團(tuán)252050877699-6--10%-3%89AO史密斯-7%-158-61-165-61-7%9-14-18-1%998876--- 子行業(yè)周漲跌幅（2023.10.16—2023.10.20） 中藥材價(jià)格指數(shù)（2020-2023年）41周南方省份流感病毒標(biāo)本陽(yáng)性率11.3%，較上周上升1.30pct南方省份流感病毒陽(yáng)性標(biāo)本檢測(cè)結(jié)果（例，截至2023年10月20日）YamagataVictoriaB未分系A(chǔ)(unsubtyped)甲型（H1N1）A（H3N2）450040002500200041周北方省份流感病毒標(biāo)本陽(yáng)性率1.80%，較上周上升0.50pct北方省份流感病毒陽(yáng)性標(biāo)本檢測(cè)結(jié)果（例，截至2023年10月20日）YamagataVictoriaB未分系A(chǔ)(unsubtyped)0HPV疫苗批簽發(fā)量小幅增加HPV疫苗批簽發(fā)批次（截至2023年9月28日）0肺炎疫苗批簽發(fā)批次（截至2023年9月280重點(diǎn)狂犬疫苗批簽發(fā)批次（截至2023年9月28日）0國(guó)產(chǎn)白蛋白批簽發(fā)批次（截至2023年9月28日）02011年2012年2013年2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年靜丙批簽發(fā)保持穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)靜丙批簽發(fā)批次（截至2023年9月28日）02011年2012年2013年2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年基本醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)基金（含生育保險(xiǎn)）單月收入（截至2023年8月）0基本醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)基金（含生育保險(xiǎn)）單月支出（截至2023年8月）02023年1月2023年3月2023年5月2023年7月食飲數(shù)據(jù)跟蹤SW軟飲料SW預(yù)加工食品SW休閑食品SW啤酒SW食品飲料SW乳品SWSW軟飲料SW預(yù)加工食品SW休閑食品SW啤酒SW食品飲料SW乳品SW調(diào)味發(fā)酵品SW白酒滬深300近一周漲跌幅(算術(shù)平均)近一月漲跌幅(算術(shù)平均)近一年漲跌幅(算術(shù)平均)50-5-10-15-20-25-30五糧液貴州茅臺(tái)海天味業(yè)伊利股份五糧液貴州茅臺(tái)海天味業(yè)2520502020-01-162021-01-162022-01-162023-01-162019-01-162020-01-162021-01-162022-01-162023-01-16飛天茅臺(tái)批價(jià)較為平穩(wěn)茅臺(tái)出廠價(jià)(元)茅臺(tái)一批價(jià)(元)400035003000250020005002019/1/272019/3/272019/5/272019/7/272019/9/272019/11/272020/1/272020/3/272020/5/272020/7/272020/9/272020/11/272021/1/272021/3/272021/5/272021/7/272021/9/272021/11/272022/1/272022/3/272022/5/272022/7/272022/9/272022/11/272023/1/272023/3/272023/5/272023/7/27普五批價(jià)較為平穩(wěn)9509008508002019/1/272019/3/272019/5/272019/7/272019/9/272019/11/272020/1/272020/3/272020/5/272020/7/272020/9/272020/11/272021/1/272021/3/272021/5/272021/7/272021/9/272021/11/272022/1/272022/3/272022/5/272022/7/272022/9/272022/11/272023/1/272023/3/272023/5/272023/7/27全國(guó)建材家居景氣指數(shù)當(dāng)月值40200全國(guó)建材家居景氣指數(shù)(BHI)：當(dāng)月值2021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09全國(guó)辦公用品零售額及當(dāng)月同比（億元，%）零售額:文化辦公用品類(lèi):當(dāng)月同比（%）50%40%30%20%0%-10%-20%2020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-098006004002000銷(xiāo)售額:建材家居賣(mài)場(chǎng):當(dāng)月值銷(xiāo)售額:建材家居賣(mài)場(chǎng):當(dāng)月同比2022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-0940200-20-40-60軟體家具上游TDI國(guó)內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)、純MDI現(xiàn)貨價(jià)(元/噸)3500030000250002000050000現(xiàn)貨價(jià):TDI:國(guó)內(nèi)CCFEI價(jià)格指數(shù):純MDI2020-10-192021-04-192021-10-192022-04-192022-10-192023-04-192023-10-19外盤(pán)針葉漿、闊葉漿價(jià)格走勢(shì)（美元/噸）9008006005004003002000外盤(pán)闊葉漿價(jià)格外盤(pán)針葉漿價(jià)格（右軸）80060040020002021-10-192022-02-192022-06-192022-10-192023-02-192023-06-192023-10-19紙品價(jià)格變動(dòng)一覽（元/噸，截至10月20日）5040200上海（浦東+虹橋）西安咸陽(yáng)機(jī)場(chǎng) 杭州蕭山機(jī)場(chǎng)桂林兩江機(jī)場(chǎng)三亞鳳凰機(jī)場(chǎng)張家界荷花機(jī)場(chǎng)麗江三義機(jī)場(chǎng) 宜春明月山機(jī)場(chǎng)九寨溝黃龍機(jī)場(chǎng)鄭州新鄭機(jī)場(chǎng)80%60%40%20%0%2023/2/282023/3/72023/2/282023/3/72023/3/142023/3/212023/3/282023/4/42023/4/112023/4/182023/4/252023/5/22023/5/92023/5/162023/5/232023/5/302023/6/62023/6/132023/6/202023/6/272023/7/42023/7/112023/7/182023/7/252023/8/12023/8/82023/8/152023/8/222023/8/292023/9/52023/9/122023/9/192023/9/262023/10/32023/10/102023/10/1723年國(guó)際航班（包括港澳臺(tái)）架次較19年同期恢復(fù)情況65%60%55%50%45%40%35%30%25%20%8000600040002000022.0422.0622.0822.1022.1223.0223.0423.0623.0823.10600500400300200020202021202220231/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/145040035030025020050020202021202220231/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/190%80%60%出租率：恢復(fù)至2019年比例平均房?jī)r(jià)：恢復(fù)至2019年比例RevPAR：恢復(fù)至2019年比例96%92%88%83%95%94%96%98%94%99%86%88%第一周第二周第三周第四周7月第一周第二周第三周第四周8月第一周第二周第三周第四周第五周9月第一周第二周90%80%60%95%95%90%87%87%76%74%94%97%95%96%98%86%86%85%89%90%84%90%8月9月200%80%60%8月9月240%220%200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%223%208%208%90%80%80%98%8月9月500450400350300250200500天貓（億元） 天貓YoY天貓（億元） 天貓YoY京東YoY抖音YoY護(hù)膚大盤(pán)YoY300%250%200%50%0%-50%-100%2019年1月2019年8月2020年3月2020年10月2021年5月2021年12月2022年7月2023年2月2023年9月天貓YoY京東YoY抖音YoY彩妝大盤(pán)YoY120806050%400%20-50%0-100%2019年1月2019年8月2020年3月2020年10月2021年5月2021年12月2022年7月2023年2月2023年9月86420貓糧狗糧貓零食貓罐頭狗零食22.0922.1022.1122.1223.0123.0223.0323.0423.0523.0623.0723.0823.09202086420100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%13.613.3.59.89.79.69.69.98.68.48.18.59.08.38.68.08.47.37.27.67.07.34.910.0.46.598765432109.4 7.6 6.8/ 7.65.94.14.55.04.44.34.64.64.25.14.54.94.64.54.9 3.22.52.82.72.84.14.55.04.44.34.64.64.25.14.54.94.64.54.9 3.22.52.82.72.83.23.13.0 80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%3.02.52.00.50.02.62.62.32.32.20.90.70.70.80.90.70.70.8160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%98765498765432060%50%40%30%20%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%8.157.978.157.977.967.477.477.477.267.267.547.266.706.696.116.136.586.706.696.116.136.305.855.855.795.04 4.73 4.4 8.07.37.47.27.57.48.021.0321.0521.0721.0921.1122.0122.0322.0522.0722.0922.1123.0123.0323.0523.0723.099月我國(guó)社會(huì)消費(fèi)品銷(xiāo)售總額39826.09000080000700006000050000400003000020000限額以上（億元）限額以上同比增速（%，右軸）限額以上（億元）限額以上同比增速（%，右軸）社零總額名義同比增速（%，右軸）2020-2020-2020-2020-2020-2021-2021-2021-2021-2021-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2022-2023-2023-2023-2023-5040200-10-202.5210.50印度培育鉆石毛坯進(jìn)口額（億美元）YoY（右軸）3000%2500%2000%500%0%-500%2019.092020.012020.052020.092021.012021.052021.092022.012022.052022.092023.012023.052023.099月印度培育鉆石毛胚進(jìn)口額滲透率為+7.6%印度培育鉆石