新東方教育集團(tuán)_國(guó)內(nèi)項(xiàng)目追求卓越，挑戰(zhàn)極限，從絕望中尋找希望，人生終將輝煌！2014年12月大學(xué)英語(yǔ)六級(jí)考試真題（第2套）PartIWriting(30minutes)Directions:Forthispart,youareallowed30minutestowriteanessaybasedonthepicturebelow.Youshouldstartyouressaywithabriefdescriptionofthepictureandthendiscusswhetherthereisashortcuttolearning.Youshouldgivesoundargumentstosupportyourviewsandwriteatleast150wordsbutnomorethan200words.PartⅡListeningComprehension(30minutes)SectionADirections:Inthissection,youwillhear8shortconversationsand2longconversations.Attheendofeachconversation,oneormorequestionswillbeaskedaboutwhatwassaid.Boththeconversationandthequestionswillbespokenonlyonce.Aftereachquestiontherewillbeapause.Duringthepause,youmustreadthefourchoicesmarkedA),B),C)andD),anddecidewhichisthebestanswer.ThenmarkthecorrespondingletteronAnswerSheet1withasinglelinethroughthecentre.1.A)Inaparkinglot.B)Atagrocery.C)Atafastfoodrestaurant.D)Inacarshowroom.2.A)Changeherpositionnowandthen..B)Stretchherlegsbeforestandingup.C)HavealittlenapafterlunchD)Getupandtakeashortwalk.3.A)Thestudentsshouldpracticelong-distancerunning.B)Thestudents'physicalconditionisnotdesirable.C)Hedoesn'tquitebelievewhatthewomansays.D)Hethinkstheraceistoohardforthestudents.4.A)Theywillgettheirdegreesintwoyears.B)Theyarebothpursuinggraduatestudies.C)Theycannotaffordtogetmarriedrightnow.D)Theydonotwanttohaveababyatpresent.5.A)HemusthavebeenmistakenforJack.B)Twinsusuallyhavealotincommon.C)Jackiscertainlynotashealthyasheis.D)HehasnotseenJackforquiteafewdays.6.A)Thewomanwillattendtheopeningofthemuseum.B)Thewomanisaskingthewayatthecrossroads.C)Themanknowswherethemuseumislocated.D)Themanwilltakethewomantothemuseum.7.A)Theycannotasktheguytoleave..B)Theguyhasbeencominginforyears.C)TheguymustbefeelingextremelylonelyD)Theyshouldnotlookdownupontheguy.8.A)Collecttimepieces.B)Becometime-conscious.C)Learntomendclocks.D)Keeptrackofhisdailyactivities.Questions9to11arebasedontheconversationyouhavejustheard.9.A)Itiseatingintoitsbanks.B)Itwindsitswaytothesea.C)Itiswideanddeep.D)Itisquicklyrising.10.A)Trytospeeduptheoperationbyanymeans.B)Taketheequipmentapartbeforebeingferried.C)Reducethetransportcostasmuchaspossible.D)Getthetrucksovertotheothersideoftheriver.11.A)Findasmanyboatsaspossible.B)Cuttreesandbuildrowingboats.C)Halttheoperationuntilfurtherorders.D)Askthecommandertosendahelicopter.Questions12to15arebasedontheconversationyouhavejustheard.12.A)Talkabouthisclimbingexperiences.B)HelphimjoinanIndianexpedition.C)Giveupmountainclimbingaltogether.D)Savemoneytobuyclimbingequipment.13.A)HewasthefirsttoconquerMt.Qomolangma.B)Hehadanunusualreligiousbackground.C)Heclimbedmountainstoearnaliving.D)Hewasverystrictwithhischildren.14.A)Theyaretobeconquered.B)Theyaretobeprotected.C)Theyaresacredplaces.D)Theyarelikehumans.15.A)Itwashisfather'strainingthatpulledhimthrough.B)Itwasamilestoneinhismountainclimbingcareer.C)IthelpedhimunderstandtheSherpaviewofmountains.D)Itwashisfatherwhogavehimthestrengthtosucceed.SectionBDirections:Inthissection,youwillhear3shortpassages.Attheendofeachpassage,youwillhearsomequestions.Boththepassageandthequestionswillbespokenonlyonce.Afteryouhearaquestion,youmustchoosethebestanswerfromthefourchoicesmarkedA),B),C)andD).ThenmarkthecorrespondingLetteronAnswerSheet1withasinglelinethroughthecentre.PassageOneQuestions16to19arebasedonthepassageyouhavejustheard.16.A)Byshowingamemorandum'sstructure.B)Byanalyzingtheorganizationofaletter.C)Bycomparingmemorandumswithletters.D)Byreviewingwhathehassaidpreviously.17.A)Theyignoredmanyofthememorandumstheyreceived.B)Theyplacedemphasisontheformatofmemorandums.C)Theyseldomreadamemorandumthroughtotheend.D)Theyspentalotoftimewritingmemorandums.18.A)Styleandwording.B)Directnessandclarity.C)Structureandlength.D)Simplicityandaccuracy.19.A)Inclusionofappropriatehumor.B)Directstatementofpurpose.C)Professionallook.D)Accuratedating.PassageTwoQuestions20to22arebasedonthepassageyouhavejustheard.20.A)Theygivetopprioritytotheirworkefficiency.B)Theymakeanefforttolightentheirworkload.C)Theytryhardtomakethebestuseoftheirtime.D)Theyneverchangeworkhabitsunlessforcedto.21.A)Senseofduty.B)Self-confidence.C)Workefficiency.D)Passionforwork.22.A)Theyfindnopleasureintheworktheydo.B)Theytrytoavoidworkwheneverpossible.C)Theyareaddictedtoplayingonlinegames.D)Theysimplyhavenosenseofresponsibility.PassageThreeQuestions23to25arebasedonthepassageyouhavejustheard.23.A)Helostallhisproperty.B)Hewassoldtoacircus.C)Heranawayfromhisfamily.D)Hewasforcedintoslavery.24.A)Acarpenter.B)Amasterofhis.C)Abusinessman.D)Ablackdrummer.25.A)ItnameditstownhallafterSolomonNorthup.B)Itfreedallblacksinthetownfromslavery.C)ItdeclaredJuly24SolomonNorthupDay.D)IthostedareunionfortheNorthupfamily.SectionCDirections:Inthissection,youwillhearapassagethreetimes.Whenthepassageisreadforthefirsttime,youshouldlistencarefullyforitsgeneralidea.Whenthepassageisreadforthesecondtime,youarerequiredtofillintheblankswiththeexactwordsyouhavejustheard.Finally,whenthepassageisreadforthethirdtime,youshouldcheckwhatyouhavewritten.Intoleranceistheartofignoringanyviewsthatdifferfromyourown.It26itselfinhatred,stereotypes,prejudice,and27.Onceitintensifiesinpeople,intoleranceisnearlyimpossibletoovercome.Butwhywouldanyonewanttobelabeledintolerant?Whywouldpeoplewanttobe28abouttheworldaroundthem?WhywouldonewanttobepartoftheprobleminAmerica,insteadofthesolution?Therearemanyexplanationsforintolerantattitudes,some29childhood.Itislikelythatintolerantfolksgrewup30intolerantparentsandthecycleofprejudicehassimplycontinuedfor31.Perhapsintolerantpeoplearesosetintheirwaysthattheyfinditeasiertoignoreanythingthatmightnot32theirlimitedviewoflife.Ormaybeintolerantstudentshavesimplyneverbeen33toanyonedifferentfromthemselves.Butnoneofthesereasonsisanexcuseforallowingtheintolerancetocontinue.Intoleranceshouldnotbeconfusedwithdisagreement.Itis,ofcourse,possibletodisagreewithanopinionwithoutbeingintolerantofit.Ifyouunderstandabeliefbutstilldon'tbelieveinthatspecificbelief,that'sfine.Youare34youropinion.Asamatteroffact,35dissenters(持異議者)areimportantforanybelief.Ifweallbelievedthesamethings,wewouldnevergrow,andwewouldneverlearnabouttheworldaroundus.Intolerancedoesnotstemfromdisagreement.Itstemsfromfear.Andfearstemsfromignorance.PartⅢReadingComprehension(40minutes)SectionADirections:Inthissection,thereisapassagewithtenblanks.Youarerequiredtoselectonewordforeachblankfromalistofchoicesgiveninawordbankfollowingthepassage.Readthepassagethroughcarefullybeforemakingyourchoices.Eachchoiceinthebankisidentifiedbyaletter.PleasemarkthecorrespondingletterforeachitemonAnswerSheet2withasinglelinethroughthecentre.Youmaynotuseanyofthewordsinthebankmorethanonce.Questions36to45arebasedonthefollowingpassage.HisfuturesubjectshavenotalwaystreatedthePrinceofWaleswiththerespectonemightexpect.Theylaughedaloudin1986whentheheirtotheBritish36toldaTVreporterthathetalkedtohisplantsathiscountryhouse,Highgrove,tostimulatetheirgrowth.ThePrincewasbeinghumorous—"Mysenseofhumorwillgetmeintotroubleoneday,"hesaidtohisaids(隨從)—butlisteningtoCharlesWindsorcanindeedprovestimulating.Theroyal37hasbeenpromotingradicalideasformostofhisadultlife.Someofhis38,whichoncesoundedabitweird,weresimplyaheadoftheirtime.Now,finally,theworldseemstobecatchingupwithhim.Takehisviewsonfarming.PrinceCharles'DuchyHomeFarmwent39backin1986,whenmostshopperscaredonlyaboutthelowpricetagonsuspiciouslyblemish-free(無(wú)瑕庇的)vegetablesand40largechickenspiledhighinsupermarkets.Hiswarningsonclimatechangeprovedfarsighted,too.Charlesbegan41actiononglobalwarmingin1990andsayshehasbeenworriedaboutthe42ofmanontheenvironmentsincehewasateenager.lthoughhehasgraduallygainedinternational43asoneoftheworld'sleadingconservationists,manyBritishpeoplestillthinkofhimasan44personwhotalkstoplants.Thisyear,asithappens,SouthKoreanscientistsprovedthatplantsreallydo45tosound.SoCharleswasaheadofthegamethere,too.A)conformB)eccentricC)environmentalistD)expeditionsE)impactF)notionsG)organicH)originallyI)recognitionJ)respondK)subordinateL)suppressingM)throneN)unnaturallyO)urgingSectionBDirections:Inthissection,youaregoingtoreadapassagewithtenstatementsattachedtoit.Eachstatementcontainsinformationgiveninoneoftheparagraphs.Identifytheparagraphfromwhichtheinformationisderived.Youmaychooseaparagraphmorethanonce.Eachparagraphismarkedwithaletter.AnswerthequestionsbymarkingthecorrespondingletteronAnswerSheet2.HighSchoolSportsAren'tKillingAcademics[A]Inthismonth'sAtlanticcoverarticle,"TheCaseAgainstHigh-SchoolSports,"AmandaRipleyarguesthatschool-sponsoredsportsprogramsshouldbeseriouslycut.Shewritesthat,unlikemostcountriesthatoutperformtheUnitedStatesoninternationalassessments,Americanschoolsputtoomuchofanemphasisonathletics."SportsareembeddedinAmericanschoolsinawaytheyarenotalmostanywhereelse,"shewrites."YetthisdifferencehardlyevercomesupindomesticdebatesaboutAmerica'sinternationalmediocrity(平庸)ineducation."[B]Americanstudent-athletesreapmanybenefitsfromparticipatinginsports,butthecoststotheschoolscouldoutweightheirbenefits,sheargues.Inparticular,Ripleycontendsthatsportscrowdouttheacademicmissionsofschools:AmericashouldlearnfromSouthKoreaandFinlandandeveryothercountryatthetoplevelofinternationaltestscores,allofwhomemphasizeathleticsfarlessinschool."Evenineighthgrade,AmericankidsspendmorethantwicethetimeKoreankidsspendplayingsports,"shewrites,citinga2010studypublishedintheJournalofAdvancedAcademics.[C]ItmightwellbetruethatsportsarefarmorerootedinAmericanhighschoolsthaninothercountries.Butourreadingofinternationaltestscoresfindsnosupportfortheargumentagainstschoolathletics.Indeed,ourownresearchandthatofothersleadustomaketheoppositecase.School-sponsoredsportsappeartoprovidebenefitsthatseemtoincrease,notdetract(減少)from,academicsuccess.[D]Ripleyindulgesapopularobsession(癡迷)withinternationaltestscorecomparisons,whichshowwideandfrighteninggapsbetweentheUnitedStatesandothercountries.Sheignores,however,thefactthatstatesvaryatleastasmuchintestscoresasdodevelopedcountries.A2011reportfromHarvardUniversityshowsthatMassachusettsproducesmathscorescomparabletoSouthKoreaandFinland,whileMississippiscoresareclosertoTrinidadandTobago.Ripley'sthesisaboutsportsfallsapartinlightofthisfact.SchoolsinMassachusettsprovidesportsprogramswhileschoolsinFinlanddonot.SchoolsinMississippimaylovefootballwhileinTobagointerscholasticsportsarenowherenearasprominent.Sportscannotexplainthesesimilaritiesinperformance.Theycan'texplaininternationaldifferenceseither.[E]IfitistruethatsportsunderminetheacademicmissionofAmericanschools,wewouldexpecttoseeanegativerelationshipbetweenthecommitmenttoathleticsandacademicachievement.However,theUniversityofArkansas'sDanielBowenandJayGreeneactuallyfindtheopposite.Theyexaminethisrelationshipbyanalyzingschools'sportswinningpercentagesaswellasstudent-athleticparticipationratescomparedtograduationratesandstandardizedtestscoreachievementoverafive-yearperiodforallpublichighschoolsinOhio.Controllingforstudentpovertylevels,demographics(人口統(tǒng)計(jì)狀況),anddistrictfinancialresources,bothmeasuresofaschool'scommitmenttoathleticsaresignificantlyandpositivelyrelatedtolowerdropoutratesaswellashighertestscores.[F]On-the-fieldsuccessandhighparticipationinsportsisnotrandom—itrequiresfocusanddedicationtoathletics.Onemightthinkthiswouldleadschoolsobsessedwithwinningtodeemphasizeacademics.BowenandGreene'sresultscontradictthatargument.Alikelyexplanationforthisseeminglycounterintuitive(與直覺(jué)相反的)resultisthatsuccessinsportsprogramsactuallyfacilitatesorreflectsgreatersocialcapitalwithinaschool'scommunity.[G]RipleycitesthewritingsofrenownedsociologistJamesColeman,whoseresearchineducationwasgroundbreaking.Colemaninhisearlyworkheldathleticsincontempt,arguingthattheycrowdedoutschools'academicmissions.Ripleyquoteshis1961study,TheAdolescentSociety,whereColemanwrites,"Altogether,thetrophy(獎(jiǎng)品)casewouldsuggesttotheinnocentvisitorthathewasenteringanathleticclub,notaneducationalinstitution."[H]However,inlaterresearchColemanwouldshowhowthesuccessofschoolsishighlydependentonwhathetermedsocialcapital,"thenorms,thesocialnetworks,andtherelationshipsbetweenadultsandchildrenthatareofvalueforthechild'sgrowingup."[I]Accordingtoa2013evaluationconductedbytheCrimeLabattheUniversityofChicago,aprogramcalledBecomingaMan—SportsEditioncreateslastingimprovementsintheboys'studyhabitsandgradepointaverages.Duringthefirstyearoftheprogram,studentswerefoundtobelesslikelytotransferschoolsorbeengagedinviolentcrime.Ayearaftertheprogram.participantswerelesslikelytohavehadanencounterwiththejuvenilejusticesystem.[J]Ifschool-sponsoredsportswerecompletelyeliminatedtomorrow,manyAmericanstudentswouldstillhaveopportunitiestoparticipateinorganizedathleticselsewhere,muchliketheydoincountriessuchasFinland,Germany,andSouthKorea.Thesameisnotcertainwhenitcomestostudentsfrommoredisadvantagedbackgrounds.Inanoverviewoftheresearchonnon-schoolbasedafter-schoolprograms,researchersfindthatdisadvantagedchildrenparticipateintheseprogramsatsignificantlylowerrates.Theyfindthatlow-incomestudentshavelessaccessduetochallengeswithregardtotransportation,non-nominalfees,andoff-campussafety.Therefore,reducingoreliminatingtheseopportunitieswouldmostlikelydeprivedisadvantagedstudentsofthebenefitsfromathleticparticipation,notleastofwhichistheopportunitytointeractwithpositiverolemodelsoutsideofregularschoolhours.[K]AnotherunfoundedcriticismthatRipleymakesisbringingupthestereotypethatathleticcoachesaretypicallylousy(蹩腳的)classroomteachers."Americanprincipals,unlikethevastmajorityofprincipalsaroundtheworld,makemanyhiringdecisionswiththeirsportsteamsinmind,whichdoesnotalwaysendwellforstudents."shewrites.Educatorswhoseekemploymentatschoolsprimarilyforthepurposeofcoachingarelikelytoshirk(推卸)teachingresponsibilities,theargumentgoes.Moreover,eveninthecaseswheretheemployeeisateacherfirstandathleticcoachsecond,theadditionalresponsibilitiesthatcomewithcoachinglikelycomeattheexpenseoftimeotherwisespentonplanning,grading,andcommunicatingwithparentsandguardians.[L]Thedata,however,donotseemtoconfirmthisstereotype.Inthemostrigorousstudyontheclassroomresultsofhighschoolcoaches,theUniversityofArkansas'sAnnaEgalitefindsthatathleticcoachesinFloridamostlytendtoperformjustaswellastheirnon-coachingcounterparts,withrespecttoraisingstudenttestscores.Wedonotdoubtthatteacherswhoalsocoachfaceserioustradeoffsthatlikelycomeattheexpenseoftimetheycoulddedicatetotheiracademicobligations.However,aswithsportingevents,athleticcoachesgainadditionalopportunitiesforcommunicatingandservingasmentors(導(dǎo)師)thatpotentiallyhelpstudentssucceedandmakeupforthecostsofcoachingcommitments.[M]Ifschoolsallowstudent-athletestoregularlymissoutoninstructionaltimeforthesakeoftravelingtoathleticcompetitions,that'sbad.However,suchissueswouldbebetteraddressedbychangingschoolandstatepolicieswithregardtotheschedulingofsportingeventsasopposedtototalelimination.Iftheempiricalevidencepointstoanything,itpointstowardsschool-sponsoredsportsprovidingassetsthatarewellworththecosts.[N]DespitenegativestereotypesaboutsportscultureandRipley'spresumptionthatacademicsandathleticsareatoddswithoneanother,webelievethatthegreaterbodyofevidenceshowsthatschool-sponsoredsportsprogramsappeartobenefitstudents.Successesontheplayingfieldcancarryovertotheclassroomandviceversa(反之亦然).Moreimportantly,findingwaystoincreaseschoolcommunities'socialcapitalisimperativetothesuccessoftheschoolasawhole,notjusttheathletes.46.Studentsfromlow-incomefamilieshavelessaccesstooff-campussportsprograms.47.AmandaRipleyarguesthatAmericashouldlearnfromothercountriesthatrankhighininternationaltestsandlaylessemphasisonathletics.48.Accordingtotheauthor,AmandaRipleyfailstonotethatstudents'performanceinexamsvariesfromstatetostate.49.AmandaRipleythinksthatathleticcoachesarepooratclassroominstruction.50.JamesColeman'slaterresearchmakesanargumentforaschool'ssocialcapital.51.Researchersfindthatthereisapositiverelationshipbetweenaschool'scommitmenttoathleticsandacademicachievements.52.Arigorousstudyfindsthatathleticcoachesalsodowellinraisingstudents,testscores.53.Accordingtoanevaluation,sportsprogramscontributetostudents'academicperformanceandcharacterbuilding.54.AmandaRipleybelievestheemphasisonschoolsportsshouldbebroughtupwhentryingtounderstandwhyAmericanstudentsaremediocre.55.JamesColemansuggestsinhisearlierwritingsthatschoolathleticswouldundermineaschool'simage.SectionCDirections:Thereare2passagesinthissection.Eachpassageisfollowedbysomequestionsorunfinishedstatements.ForeachofthemtherearefourchoicesmarkedA),B),C)andD).YoushoulddecideonthebestchoiceandmarkthecorrespondingletteronAnswerSheet2withasinglelinethroughthecentre.PassageOneQuestions56to60arebasedonthefollowingpassage.Itiseasytomissamidtheday-to-dayheadlinesofglobaleconomicrecession,butthereisalessconspicuouskindofsocialupheaval(劇變)underwaythatisfastalteringboththefaceoftheplanetandthewayhumanbeingslive.Thatchangeistherapidaccelerationofurbanization.In2008,forthefirsttimeinhumanhistory,morethanhalftheworld'spopulationwaslivingintownsandcities.Andasarecentlypublishedpapershows,theprocessofurbanizationwillonlyaccelerateinthedecadestocome—withanenormousimpactonbiodiversityandpotentiallyonclimatechange.AsKarenSeto,theleadauthorofthepaper,pointsout,thewaveofurbanizationisn'tjustaboutthemigrationofpeopleintourbanenvironments,butabouttheenvironmentsthemselvesbecomingbiggertoaccommodateallthosepeople.Therapidexpansionofurbanareaswillhaveahugeimpactonbiodiversityhotspotsandoncarbonemissionsinthoseurbanareas.Humansaretheultimateinvasivespecies—whentheymoveintonewterritory,theyoftendisplacethewildlifethatwasalreadylivingthere.Andaslandisclearedforthosenewcities—especiallyinthedensetropicalforests—carbonwillbereleasedintotheatmosphereaswell.It'struethataspeopleindevelopingnationsmovefromthecountrysidetothecity,theshiftmayreducethepressureonland,whichcouldinturnbegoodfortheenvironment.Thisisespeciallysoindesperatelypoorcountries,whereresidentsinthecountrysideslashandburnforestseachgrowingseasontoclearspaceforfarming.Buttherealdifferenceisthatindevelopingnations,themovefromruralareastocitiesoftenleadstoanaccompanyingincreaseinincome—andthatincreaseleadstoanincreaseintheconsumptionoffoodandenergy,whichinturncausesariseincarbonemissions.Gettingenoughtoeatandenjoyingthesafetyandcomfortoflivingfullyonthegridiscertainlyagoodthing—butitdoescarryanenvironmentalprice.Theurbanizationwavecan'tbestopped—anditshouldn'tbe.ButSeto'spaperdoesunderscoretheimportanceofmanagingthattransition.Ifwedoittherightway,wecanreduceurbanization'simpactontheenvironment."There'sanenormousopportunityhere,andalotofpressureandresponsibilitytothinkabouthowweurbanize,"saysSeto."Onethingthat'sclearisthatwecan'tbuildcitiesthewaywehaveoverthelastcoupleofhundredyears.Thescaleofthistransitionwon'tallowthat."We'reheadedtowardsanurbanplanetnomatterwhat,butwhetheritbecomesheavenorhellisuptous.56.Whatissuedoestheauthortrytodrawpeople'sattentionto?A)Theshrinkingbiodiversityworldwide.B)Therapidincreaseofworldpopulation.C)Theongoingglobaleconomicrecession.D)Theimpactofacceleratingurbanization.57.Inwhatsensearehumanstheultimateinvasivespecies?A)Theyaremuchgreedierthanotherspecies.B)Theyareauniquespeciesborntoconquer.C)Theyforceotherspeciesoutoftheirterritories.D)Theyhaveanurgetoexpandtheirlivingspace.58.Inwhatwayisurbanizationinpoorcountriesgoodfortheenvironment?A)Morelandwillbepreservedforwildlife.B)Thepressureonfarmlandwillbelessened.C)Carbonemissionswillbeconsiderablyreduced.D)Naturalresourceswillbeusedmoreeffectively.59.Whatdoestheauthorsayaboutlivingcomfortablyinthecity?A)Itincursahighenvironmentalprice.B)Itbringspovertyandinsecuritytoanend.C)Itcausesabigchangeinpeople'slifestyle.D)Itnarrowsthegapbetweencityandcountry.60.WhatcanbedonetominimizethenegativeimpactofurbanizationaccordingtoSeto?A)Slowingdownthespeedoftransition.B)Innovativeuseofadvancedtechnology.C)Appropriatemanagementoftheprocess.D)Enhancingpeople'ssenseofresponsibility.PassageTwoQuestions61to65arebasedonthefollowingpassage.Ifyouaskedmetodescribetherisingphilosophyoftheday,I'dsayitisdata-ism.Wenowhavetheabilitytogatherhugeamountsofdata.Thisabilityseemstocarrywithitcertainculturalassumptions—thateverythingthatcanbemeasuredshouldbemeasured;thatdataisatransparentandreliablelensthatallowsustofilteroutemotionalismandideology;thatdatawillhelpusdoremarkablethings—likeforetellthefuture.Overthenextyear,I'mhopingtogetabettergriponsomeofthequestionsraisedbythedatarevolution:Inwhatsituationsshouldwerelyonintuitivepatternrecognitionandinwhichsituationsshouldweignoreintuitionandfollowthedata?Whatkindsofeventsarepredictableusingstatisticalanalysisandwhatsortsofeventsarenot?IconfessIenterthisinaskepticalframeofmind,believingthatwetendtogetcarriedawayinourdesiretoreduceeverythingtothequantifiable.Butattheoutsetletmecelebratetwothingsdatadoesreallywell.First,it'sreallygoodatexposingwhenourintuitiveviewofrealityiswrong.Forexample,nearlyeverypersonwhorunsforpoliticalofficehasanintuitivesensethattheycanpowerfullyinfluencetheiroddsofwinningtheelectioniftheycanjustraiseandspendmoremoney.Butthisislargelywrong.Afterthe2006election,SeanTrendeconstructedagraphcomparingtheincumbent(在任者的)campaignspendingadvantageswiththeireventualmarginsofvictory.Therewasbarelyanyrelationshipbetweenmorespendingandabiggervictory.Likewise,manyteachershaveanintuitivesensethatdifferentstudentshavedifferentlearningstyles;someareverbalandsomearevisual;somearelinear,someareholistic(整體的).Teachersimaginetheywillimproveoutcomesiftheytailortheirpresentationstoeachstudent.Butthere'snoevidencetosupportthiseither.Second,datacanilluminatepatternsofbehaviorwehaven'tyetnoticed.Forexample,I'vealwaysassumedpeoplewhofrequentlyusewordslike"I,""me,"and"mine"areprobablymoreself-centeredthanpeoplewhodon't.ButasJamesPennebakeroftheUniversityofTexasnotesinhisbook,TheSecretLifeofPronouns,whenpeoplearefeelingconfident,theyarefocusedonthetaskathand,notonthemselves.High-status,confidentpeopleusefewer"I"words,notmore.Ourbrainsoftendon'tnoticesubtleverbalpatterns,butPennebaker'scomputerscan.Youngerwritersusemorenegativeandpast-tensewordsthanolderwriterswhousemorepositiveandfuture-tensewords.Insum,thedatarevolutionisgivinguswonderfulwaystounderstandthepresentandthepast.Willittransformourabilitytopredictandmakedecisionsaboutthefuture?We'llsee.61.Whatdodata-istsassumetheycando?A)Transformpeople'sculturalidentity.B)Changethewayfutureeventsunfold.C)Getafirmgriponthemostimportantissues.D)Eliminateemotionalandideologicalbias.62.Whatdopeoplerunningforpoliticalofficethinktheycando?A)Usedataanalysistopredictt