證券研究報告投資要點：2024年1投資要點：2024年1月5PSL發(fā)展歷程回顧。1）2014420159月期間，PSL主要根據(jù)棚改貸款進度投放。2）2015102016年底，PSL投放領(lǐng)域和20195）2022月，PSL連續(xù)三個月大規(guī)模凈投放，或主要用于支持基建領(lǐng)域。此次PSLPSLM2重啟或是為了支持“三大工程”建設(shè)，提供長期穩(wěn)定、低成本的資金。債市調(diào)整即機會，關(guān)注貨幣政策。1210Y國開債活躍券、10Y國債活躍券利率分別+2.3bp+1.2bpPSL央行回籠流動性，以及機構(gòu)止盈情緒有所顯現(xiàn)。展望后續(xù)，結(jié)合歷史經(jīng)驗來看，PSL對債市短期內(nèi)影響偏空，中長期要看經(jīng)濟和各類政策力度等。111/4日十年國債利率已突破前低，1月政策利率調(diào)整情況和市場止盈情緒變化，關(guān)注調(diào)整風(fēng)險和調(diào)整后配置機會。此外，存單利率上行壓力或仍在；30Y國債利率處偏低水平，但開年配置情緒較好，預(yù)計調(diào)整空間或有限。二永供需格局有支撐，疊加資產(chǎn)荒邏輯延續(xù)，若降息可關(guān)注短久期二永債利差補降的波段機會。風(fēng)險提示：基本面變化、政策不及預(yù)期或超預(yù)期、信用風(fēng)險、股市波動。請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和法律聲明圖目錄圖1 PSL發(fā)展歷程回顧（億元） 5圖2 PSL重啟，短期會壓制債市表現(xiàn)（指標(biāo)為10Y國債利率，%） 6圖3 除了PSL，債市利率也要看經(jīng)濟情況（億元，%） 6圖4 LPR利率互換隱含1月有降息的可能性 7表目錄表1 信用債品種利率水平與利差所處分位數(shù)（%，截至1月2日） 71212350032522億元。這是PSLPSL1.PSL發(fā)展歷程回顧PSLPSL144月首次由央行創(chuàng)設(shè)，創(chuàng)設(shè)目的在于為開發(fā)性金融支持棚戶PSL3-5PSL利率水平，同時可以緩解流動性的結(jié)構(gòu)失衡以支持特定領(lǐng)域。結(jié)合發(fā)行規(guī)模、政策背景等因素來看，PSL發(fā)展歷史可分為以下幾個階段：4201592014年國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟處于增速換擋期、外匯占款下降，央行適時加強主動管理，貨幣政策工具取代外匯占款成為基礎(chǔ)貨幣供給的主渠道，對結(jié)構(gòu)性貨幣政策工具也更為重視。同時，政700470萬套以上2。在這樣的歷史背景下，PSL工具應(yīng)運而生，前期投放主要為棚156月起才開始每月定期公布開展情況。1020161510月起，PSL的對象由國發(fā)行一家擴大至三家政策行，主要用于支持發(fā)放棚改貸款、重大水利工程貸款、人民幣“走出去”項目貸款等。期間，PSL159月末的9589161220526152.75%后穩(wěn)定在這一水平。3）2017年，PSL規(guī)?；芈?。2017年是棚改三年計劃收官之年，在前期棚改進展順利、政策行放貸工作有序推進條件下，2017PSL的依賴有所下降，至17年底，PSL16635016年增幅的三分之二。4）20182019年，PSL短暫沖高后回落，隨棚改政策收緊而退潮。18年初，580PSL18年上半年回溫，850幅上漲，老舊小區(qū)改造逐漸成為住房工作重點，棚改政策趨于收緊，PSL194月后暫停。199月，PSL重啟，但持續(xù)時間短且規(guī)模較小，對此央行解釋稱“今年以券籌資的成本是降低的，所以對L的需求是下降的5）2022年9-11月，PSL連續(xù)三個月大規(guī)模凈投放，或主要用于支持基建領(lǐng)域。9-11月，PSL新增規(guī)模合計6300億元。央行于22年三季度《貨幣政策執(zhí)行報告》中表示“運用抵押補充貸款支持政策性、開發(fā)性金融機構(gòu)為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施重點領(lǐng)域設(shè)立金融工具和提供信貸支持”，表明其用途應(yīng)為支持基建投資。1/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125213/2161446/2161457/5188121/index.html2/xinwen/2014-08/05/content_2729866.htm3https:///xinwen/2019-10/16/content_5440807.htm圖1PSL發(fā)展歷程回顧（億元）4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000

2017年是棚改三年計劃2017年是棚改三年計劃收官之年，余額新增6350億元。PSL投放領(lǐng)域和主體均有擴大。15年10月~16年12月余額新增1.09萬億元。22年9-11月余額共新增6300億元，主要支持基建投資。2018年新的三年棚改計劃啟動，余額新增6919億元。創(chuàng)設(shè)之初，主要根據(jù)棚改貸款進度投放，2014年共投放3831億元。5,000014/1215/0916/0617/0317/1218/0919/0620/0320/1221/0922/0623/0323/12中國:抵押補充貸款(PSL):提供資金:當(dāng)月新增 中國:抵押補充貸款(PSL):期末余額（右軸）資料來源：，HTIPSL投放對貸款增長有杠桿放大效應(yīng)，同時將通過貨幣乘數(shù)派生M2規(guī)模。央行202013.5元的貸款增長，是500億元的L投放可拉動約PSL238.023500億元的凈PSL2.8M2M2M2同比增速為%從用途來看，此次PSL重啟或是為了支持“三大工程”建設(shè)。PSL用途在于為特定領(lǐng)域提供長期穩(wěn)定、低成本的資金。23月央行行長潘功勝曾表示“為保障性住障性住房建設(shè)2.指示：債市調(diào)整即機會，關(guān)注貨幣政策24/1/2央行發(fā)布公告抵押補充貸款0Y國開債活躍券、0Y國債活躍利率分別b、+1.2bp。PSL政策超前發(fā)力，出乎我們預(yù)期。12月初央行行長潘功勝表示5“為保障性住房L作為投放中長期低成本資金的結(jié)構(gòu)性貨幣工具是有可能被使用的。以及，我們在《20231202：動不失時，票息為盾——2024年債市展望》中也表示“廣義財政有望適時擴容…準(zhǔn)財政工具的發(fā)力”等。10Y2.56%，機構(gòu)止盈情緒顯現(xiàn)。展望后續(xù)，PSL對債市影響如何？回顧歷史可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，2015-2018PSL余額持續(xù)增長時，債市利率短暫上行后走出牛-熊-PSL余額走勢并不一致，22PSL上行，從震蕩到走熊的原因主要是防疫政策優(yōu)化疊加地產(chǎn)政策變動引發(fā)了債市贖回負反PSL可能會連續(xù)投放，22PSL630022PSL新增PSL4/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125213/2161446/2161457/5188121/index.html5https://www.go/govweb/lianbo/bumen/202312/content_6918449.htm圖2PSL重啟，短期會壓制債市表現(xiàn)（指標(biāo)為10Y國債利率，%） 2015年22年9-12月PSL投放時，10Y國債利率走勢3.602.833.602.833.552.783.502.733.452.683.402.633.352.583.302.53-14-11-8-5-21471013161922252831343740434649525558

資料來源：wind，HTI，橫軸0為PSL重啟所在月份的第一個交易日，其余同理圖3除了PSL，債市利率也要看經(jīng)濟情況（億元，%） PSL余額10Y國債利率（右軸）15/1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 20/1 21/1 22/1 23/1中國:經(jīng)景氣數(shù) 10Y國債利（右）35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000

65605550454035302515/1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 20/1 21/1

4.24.03.23.0資料來源：wind，HTI建議關(guān)注貨幣政策配合的情況PSL1月降LPR12312PMI繼續(xù)下降，已連續(xù)三個月在萎縮區(qū)間，1212月22日起大行新一輪存款利率下調(diào)，此前存款利率下調(diào)分別是在22年9月、23年692282368OMO/MLF因此我們建議繼續(xù)241OMOMLF利率調(diào)整的可能性。此外，債市供需格局或?qū)⒏纳?，我們預(yù)計1月政府債凈供給壓力或邊際緩解，疊加銀行考核壓力暫告一段落，銀行保險開門紅配置力量可期。圖4LPR利率互換隱含1月有降息的可能性1YLPR降息1YLPR降息/加息預(yù)期（BP）利率互換:LPR1Y:1年（%）LPR:1年（%，右軸）

503.4

20/120/4

20/720/1021/121/421/721/1022/122/422/722/1023/123/423/723/10

-25資料來源：wind，HTI11/4（2381月政策利率調(diào)整情況和市場止盈情緒變化，關(guān)注調(diào)整風(fēng)險和調(diào)整后配置機會。此外，央行節(jié)后連續(xù)回預(yù)計調(diào)整空間或有限。年初二永債具有配置盤布局需求，且供給壓力或可控，在資產(chǎn)荒邏輯支撐下，我們預(yù)計利差回調(diào)的風(fēng)險不大，后續(xù)若降息可關(guān)注短久期二永債利差補降的波段機會。表1信用債品種利率水平與利差所處分位數(shù)（%，截至1月2日）1月2日二級資本債AAA- AA+ AA永續(xù)債AAA- AA+ AA中票AAA AA+ AA城投債AAA AA+ AA當(dāng)前利率水 2年平 2.68 2.692.802.74 2.752.842.522.632.722.572.682.792.74 2.772.882.83 2.842.942.662.772.902.692.812.922.88 2.903.022.97 2.99 3.092.712.853.082.772.873.022.99 3.01 3.133.03 3.07 3.213.06 3.113.08 3.133.262.802.983.332.853.003.002.943.163.512.92與國開債利 期差所處分位 期數(shù)（3年） 48 4441 363540302325101918 2329394039221731291554392665523728102013 144425 172115813 1343 201191369 947 6029211020與國開債利 期差所處分位 期數(shù)（1年） 62 565143341122 284338 50 461810450 044312251341760 04 2 0020 20 0241 6 0 0 00 0 00 0 040 0 08702 0 0企業(yè)債AAA AA+ AA可續(xù)期產(chǎn)業(yè)債AAA AA+ AA非公開產(chǎn)業(yè)債AAA AA+ AA普通金融債AAA AA+ AA當(dāng)前利率水 2年平 2.562.682.742.732.832.942.672.812.922.472.532.632.662.782.912.89 2.973.122.842.953.053.102.552.632.732.752.873.102.94 3.063.352.923.332.652.682.752.792.852.812.983.323.033.203.753.083.353.772.902.933.153.503.173.403.933.213.593.962.792.903.04與國開債利 期差所處分位 期數(shù)（3年） 3836392324164725517 19823182255623333313346 391546204114113110 077 77431520140 090137 321738 31230712639604837與國開債利 期差所處分位 期數(shù)（1年） 46 50 46523341527 2236 3423 305731 18 2223 17038483216250 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 0625572 651 0 020 00 061481340884 8776注：數(shù)據(jù)分別為滾動三年分位數(shù)和滾動一年分位數(shù)，永續(xù)債利差滾動三年分位數(shù)為2021年8月16日以來。資料來源：，HTI風(fēng)險提示：基本面變化、政策不及預(yù)期或超預(yù)期、信用風(fēng)險、股市波動。附錄APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究報告由海通國際分銷，海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通國際證券有限公司(HTISCL)的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌，海通國際證券集團(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)從事證券活動。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析師認(rèn)證AnalystCertification:我，宋奇，在此保證（i）（ii）（包括我們的家屬）（我已經(jīng)告知他們）報告發(fā)布后的3I,StevenSong,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchand(ii)nopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin3businessdaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益沖突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures/（ERDDisclosure@htiseccom）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@htisec.comiftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).評級定義（從2020年7月1日開始執(zhí)行）：（“HTI）HTI的評級定義。并且HTI基于各自情況（）分析師股票評級優(yōu)于大市12-1810%下中性，未來12-18FINRA/NYSE的評級分布規(guī)則，我們會將中性評級劃入持有這一類別。弱于大市12-1810%TOPIX,KOSPI,TAIEX,Nifty100,美–SP500;其他所有中國概念股MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1Jul2020):HaitongInternationalusesarelativeratingsystemusingOutperform,Neutral,orUnderperformforrecommendingthestockswecovertoinvestors.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinHaitongInternationalResearch.Inaddition,sinceHaitongInternationalResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadHaitongInternationalResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.AnalystStockRatingsOutperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,as

評級分布RatingDistributionindicatedbelow.Neutral:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Underperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–Taiwan–TAIEX,–Nifty100,US–SP500;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.截至2023年9月30日海通國際股票研究評級分布優(yōu)于大市 中性 弱于大市(持有)海通國際股票研究覆蓋率 89.3% 1.1% 9.6%投資銀行客戶* 3.9% 5.8% 10.0%*在每個評級類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。上述分布中的買入，中性和賣出分別對應(yīng)我們當(dāng)前優(yōu)于大市，中性和落后大市評級。只有根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE此前的評級系統(tǒng)定義（直至2020年6月30日）：買入，未來1218個月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)漲幅在10%中性，未來1218FINRA/NYSE賣出，未來1218個月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)跌幅在10%各地股票基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)：日本–TOPIX,韓國–KOSPI,臺灣–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100;其他所有中國概念股–MSCIChina.HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,asofSeptember30,2023Outperform Neutral Underperform(hold)HTIEquityResearchCoverage 89.3% 1.1% 9.6%IBclients* 3.9% 5.8% 10.0%*Percentageofinvestmentbankingclientsineachratingcategory.BUY,Neutral,andSELLintheabovedistributioncorrespondtoourcurrentratingsofOutperform,Neutral,andUnderperform.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Previousratingsystemdefinitions(until30Jun2020):BUY:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.SELL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–Taiwan–TAIEX,–Nifty100;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.海通國際非評級研究：了進行股票評級、提出目標(biāo)價格或進行基本面估值，而僅供參考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:HaitongInternationalpublishesquantitative,screeningorshortreportswhichmayrankstocksaccordingtovaluationandothermetricsormaysuggestpricesbasedonpossiblevaluationmultiples.Suchrankingsorsuggestedpricesdonotpurporttobestockratingsortargetpricesorfundamentalvaluesandareforinformationonly.海通國際A股覆蓋：海通國際可能會就滬港通及深港通的中國A（600837CH）A是，海通國際使用與海通證券不同的評級系統(tǒng)，所以海通國際與海通證券的中國A股評級可能有所不同。HaitongInternationalCoverageofA-Shares:HaitongInternationalmaycoverandrateA-SharesthataresubjecttotheHongKongStockConnectschemewithShanghaiandShenzhen.HaitongSecurities(HS;600837CH),theultimateparentcompanyofHTISGbasedinShanghai,coversandpublishesresearchonthesesameA-SharesfordistributioninmainlandChina.However,theratingsystememployedbyHSdiffersfromthatusedbyHTIandasaresulttheremaybeadifferenceintheHTIandHSratingsforthesameA-sharestocks.海通國際優(yōu)質(zhì)100A股（Q100）指數(shù)：海通國際Q100指數(shù)是一個包括100支由海通證券覆蓋的優(yōu)質(zhì)中國A股的計量產(chǎn)品。這些股票是通過基于質(zhì)量的篩選過程，并結(jié)合對海通證券A股團隊自下而上的研究。海通國際每季對Q100指數(shù)成分作出復(fù)審。HaitongInternationalQuality100A-share(Q100)Index:HTI’sQ100Indexisaquantproductthatconsistsof100ofthehighest-qualityA-sharesundercoverageatHSinShanghai.Thesestocksarecarefullyselectedthroughaquality-basedscreeningprocessincombinationwithareviewoftheHSA-shareteam’sbottom-upresearch.TheQ100constituentcompaniesarereviewedquarterly.盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)通免責(zé)聲明條款：在使用盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)之前，請務(wù)必仔細閱讀本條款并同意本聲明：第一條義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)系由盟浪可持續(xù)數(shù)字科技有限責(zé)任公司（以下簡稱“本公司”）基于合法取得的公開信息評估而成，本公司對信息的準(zhǔn)確性及完整性不作任何保證。對公司述的評估結(jié)果造成的任何直接或間接損失負責(zé)。（）績表現(xiàn)不作為日后回報的預(yù)測。（（））SusallWaveFIN-ESGDataServiceDisclaimer:PleasereadthesetermsandconditionsbelowcarefullyandconfirmyouragreementandacceptancewiththesetermsbeforeusingSusallWaveFIN-ESGDataService.FIN-ESGDataisproducedbySusallWaveDigitalTechnologyCo.,Ltd.(Inshort,SusallWave)’sassessmentbasedonlegalpubliclyaccessibleinformation.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformation.Theassessmentresultisforreferenceonly.Itisnotforanyinvestmentadviceforanyindividualorinstitutionandnotforbasisofpurchasing,sellingorholdinganyrelativefinancialproducts.WewillnotbeliableforanydirectorindirectlossofanyindividualorinstitutionasaresultofusingSusallWaFIN-ESGData.SusallWadonotconsiderrecipientsascustomersforreceivingthesedata.Whenusingthedata,recipientsshallmakeyourownindependentjudgmentaccordingtoyourpracticalindividualstatus.Thecontentsofthedatareflectthejudgmentofusonlyonthereleaseday.Wehaverighttoupdateandamendthedataandreleaseotherdatathatcontainsinconsistentcontentsordifferentconclusionswithoutnotification.Unlessexpresslystated,thedata(e.g.,financialperformancedata)representspastperformanceonlyandthepastperformancecannotbeviewedasthepredictionoffuturereturn.ThecopyrightofthisdatabelongstoSusallWa,andreserveallrightsinaccordancewiththelaw.Withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofourcompany,noneofindividualorinstitutioncanusethesedataforanyprofitablepurpose.Besides,noneofindividualorinstitutioncantakeactionssuchasamendment,replication,translation,compilation,re-editing,adaption,deletion,abbreviation,excerpts,issuance,rent,exhibition,performance,projection,broadcast,informationnetworktransmission,shooting,addingiconsandinstructions.IfanylossofSusallWaoranythird-partyiscausedbythoseactions,usersshallbearthecorrespondingcompensationliability.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyloss.Ifanytermisnotcontainedinthisdisclaimerbutwritteninotheragreementsonourwebsite(e.g.UserRegistrationProtocolofSusallWaWebsite,UserService(includingauthentication)AgreementofSusallWaveWebsite,PrivacyPolicyofSusallwaveWebsite),itshouldbeexecutedaccordingtootheragreements.Ifthereisanydifferencebetweenthisdisclaimandotheragreements,thisdisclaimershallbeapplied.重要免責(zé)聲明：非印度證券的研究報告：本報告由海通國際證券集團有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全資附屬公司海通國際研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）（571章）4（）HTISGLHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK）HTIJKK管為投資顧問。印度證券的研究報告：SecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia（“SEBI”）HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited（“HTSIPL）BSELimited（“BSE”）NationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited（“NSE）（）HTSIPL20161222并成為海通國際證券集團有限公司（“HTISG）所有研究報告均以海通國際為名作為全球品牌，經(jīng)許可由海通國際證券股份有限公司及/或海通國際證券集團的其他成員在其司法管轄區(qū)發(fā)布。HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他屬于海通國際證券集團有限公司（“HTISG）/HTISG任。HTISGHTISG的銷售員、交易員和其他專業(yè)人士均可向HTISGHTISG一致的投資決策。但HTIRL請訪問海通國際網(wǎng)站www.equities.htisec.com，查閱更多有關(guān)海通國際為預(yù)防和避免利益沖突設(shè)立的組織和行政安排的內(nèi)容信息。非美國分析師披露信息：本項研究首頁上列明的海通國際分析師并未在FINRA進行注冊或者取得相應(yīng)的資格，并且不受美國FINRA有關(guān)與本項研究目標(biāo)公司進行溝通、公開露面和自營證券交易的第2241條規(guī)則之限制。IMPORTANTDISCLAIMERForresearchreportsonnon-Indiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupLimited(“HTISGL”)andalicensedcorporationtocarryonType4regulatedactivity(advisingonsecurities)forthepurposeoftheSecuritiesandFuturesOrdinance(Cap.571)ofHongKong,withtheassistanceofHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHTISGLandwhichisregulatedasanInvestmentAdviserbytheKantoFinanceBureauofJapan.ForresearchreportsonIndiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),anIndiancompanyandaSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(“SEBI”)registeredStockBroker,MerchantBankerandResearchAnalystthat,interalia,producesanddistributesresearchreportscoveringlistedentitiesontheBSELimited(“BSE”)andtheNationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited(“NSE”)(collectivelyreferredtoas“IndianExchanges”).HSIPLwasacquiredandbecamepartoftheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”)on22December2016.AlltheresearchreportsaregloballybrandedunderthenameHaitongInternationalandapprovedfordistributionbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”)and/oranyothermemberswithinHTISGintheirrespectivejurisdictions.Theinformationandopinionscontainedinthisresearchreporthavebeencompiledorarrivedatfromsourcesbelievedtobereliableandingoodfaithbutnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadebyHTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKKoranyothermemberswithinHTISGfromwhichthisresearchreportmaybereceived,astotheiraccuracy,completenessorcorrectness.Allopinionsexpressedhereinareasofthedateofthisresearchreportandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisresearchreportisforinformationpurposeonly.Descriptionsofanycompaniesortheirsecuritiesmentionedhereinarenotintendedtobecompleteandthisresearchreportisnot,andshouldnotbeconstruedexpresslyorimpliedlyas,anoffertobuyorsellsecurities.Thesecuritiesreferredtointhisresearchreportmaynotbeeligibleforpurchaseorsaleinsomejurisdictions.Ifaninvestmentproductisdenominatedinacurrencyotherthananinvestor'shomecurrency,achangeinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffecttheinvestment.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresults.Certaintransactions,includingthoseinvolvingderivatives,giverisetosubstantialriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Youshouldalsobearinmindthatrecommendationsinthisresearchreportarenottailor-madeforyou.Theanalysthasnottakenintoaccountyouruniquefinancialcircumstances,suchasyourfinancialsituationandriskappetite.Youmust,therefore,analyzeandshould,whereapplicable,consultyourownlegal,tax,accounting,financialandotherprofessionaladviserstoevaluatewhethertherecommendationssuitsyoubeforeinvestment.NeitherHTISGnoranyofitsdirectors,employeesoragentsacceptsanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanydirectorconsequentiallossarisingfromanyuseofthematerialscontainedinthisresearchreport.HTISGandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployees,excludingtheanalystsresponsibleforthecontentofthisdocument,willfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearchreport.Sales,traders,andotherprofessionalsofHTISGmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestotherelevantclientsandthecompanieswithinHTISGthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTISGmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTIisundernoobligationtoensurethatsuchothertradingdecisions,ideasorrecommendationsarebroughttotheattentionofanyrecipientofthisresearchreport.PleaserefertoHTI’swebsiteforfurtherinformationonHTI’sorganizationalandadministrativearrangementssetupforthepreventionandavoidanceofconflictsofinterestwithrespecttoResearch.NonU.S.AnalystDisclosure:TheHTIanalyst(s)listedonthecoverofthisResearchis(are)notregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRAandarenotsubjecttoU.S.FINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcompaniesthatarethesubjectoftheResearch;publicappearances;andtradingsecuritiesbyaresearchanalyst.分發(fā)和地區(qū)通知：除非下文另有規(guī)定，否則任何希望討論本報告或者就本項研究中討論的任何證券進行任何交易的收件人均應(yīng)聯(lián)系其所在國家或地區(qū)的海通國際銷售人員。香港投資者的通知事項：海通國際證券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)負責(zé)分發(fā)該研究報告，HTISCL是在香港有權(quán)實施第1類受規(guī)管活動（從事證券交易）的持牌公司。該研究報告并不構(gòu)成《證券及期貨條例》（香港法例第571章）（以下簡稱“SFO”）所界定的要約邀請，證券要約或公眾要約。本研究報告僅提供給SFO所界定的“專業(yè)投資者”。本研究報告未經(jīng)過證券及期貨事務(wù)監(jiān)察委員會的審查。您不應(yīng)僅根據(jù)本研究報告中所載的信息做出投資決定。本研究報告的收件人就研究報告中產(chǎn)生或與之相關(guān)的任何事宜請聯(lián)系HTISCL銷售人員。美國投資者的通知事項：HTIRLHSIPLHTIJKK編寫。HTIRLHSIPLHTIJKKHTISG1934年“美國證券交易法”15a6（“MajorU.S.InstitutionalInvestor）資者」（”US.InstitutionalInvestors）HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.（“HTIUSA”）HTIUSA。HTIUSA340MadisonAvenue,12thFloor,NewYork,NY10173，電話（212）351-6050。HTIUSA是在美國于US.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission（“SEC”）FinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthority,Inc.（“FINRA”）HTIUSAHSIPLHTIRL或HTIJKKHSIPLHTIRLHTIJKKFINRAFINRA2241（包括ADR）HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.340MadisonAvenue,12thFloorNewYork,NY10173聯(lián)系人電話：(212)3516050DISTRIBUTIONANDREGIONALNOTICESExceptasotherwiseindicatedbelow,anyRecipientwishingtodiscussthisresearchreportoreffectanytransactioninanysecuritydiscussedinHTI’sresearchshouldcontacttheHaitongInternationalsalespersonintheirowncountryorregion.NoticetoHongKonginvestors:TheresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),whichisalicensedcorporationtocarryonType1regulatedactivity(dealinginsecurities)inHongKong.ThisresearchreportdoesnotconstituteasolicitationoranofferofsecuritiesoraninvitationtothepublicwithinthemeaningoftheSFO.Thisresearchreportisonlytobecirculatedto"ProfessionalInvestors"asdefinedintheSFO.ThisresearchreporthasnotbeenreviewedbytheSecuritiesandFuturesCommission.Youshouldnotmakeinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthebasisoftheinformationcontainedinthisresearchreport.RecipientsofthisresearchreportaretocontactHTISCLsalespersonsinrespectofanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,theresearchreport.NoticetoU.S.investors:Asdescribedabove,thisresearchreportwaspreparedbyHTIRL,HSIPLorHTIJKK.NeitherHTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK,noranyofthenonU.S.HTISGaffiliatesisregisteredintheUnitedStatesand,therefore,isnotsubjecttoU.S.rulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalysts.Thisresearchreportisprovidedfordistributionto“majorU.S.institutionalinvestors”and“U.S.institutionalinvestors”inrelianceontheexemptionfromregistrationprovidedbyRule15a-6oftheU.S.SecuritiesExchangeActof1934,asamended.Whendistributingresearchreportsto“U.S.institutionalinvestors,”HTIUSAwillaccepttheresponsibilitiesforthecontentofthereports.AnyU.S.recipientofthisresearchreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisresearchreportshoulddosoonlythroughHaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.(“HTIUSA”),locatedat340MadisonAvenue,12thFloor,NewYork,NY10173,USA;telephone(212)3516050.HTIUSAisabroker-dealerregisteredintheU.S.withtheU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission(the“SEC”)andamemberoftheFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthority,Inc.(“FINRA”).HTIUSAisnotresponsibleforthepreparationofthisresearchreportnorfortheanalysiscontainedtherein.UndernocircumstancesshouldanyU.S.recipientofthisresearchreportcontacttheanalystdirectlyoreffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsdirectlythroughHSIPL,HTIRLorHTIJKK.TheHSIPL,HTIRLorHTIJKKanalyst(s)whosenameappearsinthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRAand,therefore,maynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.Investinginanynon-U.S.securitiesorrelatedfinancialinstruments(includingADRs)discussedinthisresearchreportmaypresentcertainrisks.Thesecuritiesofnon-U.S.issuersmaynotberegisteredwith,orbesubjecttoU.S.regulations.Informationonsuchnon-U.S.securitiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsmaybelimited.ForeigncompaniesmaynotbesubjecttoauditandreportingstandardsandregulatoryrequirementscomparabletothoseineffectwithintheU.S.ThevalueofanyinvestmentorincomefromanysecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsdiscussedinthisresearchreportdenominatedinacurrencyotherthanU.S.dollarsissubjecttoexchangeratefluctuationsthatmayhaveapositiveoradverseeffectonthevalueoforincomefromsuchsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstruments.AllinquiriesbyU.S.recipientsshouldbedirectedto:HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.340MadisonAvenue,12thFloorNewYork,NY10173Attn:SalesDeskat(212)3516050中華人民共和國的通知事項：在中華人民共和國（下稱“中國”）“在中國從事生產(chǎn)、經(jīng)營活動”加拿大投資者的通知事項：HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.（“HTIUSA”）NationalInstrument31103RegistrationRequirements,ExemptionsandOngoingRegistrantObligations（“NI31-103）的規(guī)定得到「國際交易商豁免」（“InternationalDealerExemption”）NationalInstrument45-106ProspectusExemptions11節(jié)或者Securities(Ontario)7331（“AccreditedInvestor）NationalInstrument31-10311節(jié)所規(guī)定的「許可投資者」（“PermittedInvestor）。新加坡投資者的通知事項：HaitongInternationalSecurities(SingaporePteLtd（“HTISSPL”）[201311400G于新加坡提供。HTISSPL（110章）（“FAA”）（a）（b）（289章）第4A題，本研究報告的收件人應(yīng)通過以下信息與HTISSPLHaitongInternationalSecurities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd50RafflesPlace,#33-03SingaporeLandTower,Singapore048623電話:(65)65361920日本投資者的通知事項：（（“FIEL”））61（1）條，第17-11（1）條的執(zhí)行及相關(guān)條款）。英國及歐盟投資者的通知事項：本報告由從事投資顧問的HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited所發(fā)布，本報告只面向有投資相關(guān)經(jīng)驗的專業(yè)客戶發(fā)布。任何投資或與本報告相關(guān)的投資行為只面對此類專業(yè)客戶。沒有投資經(jīng)驗或相關(guān)投資經(jīng)驗的客戶不得依賴本報告。HaitongInternationalSecu