請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分全請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分全球視野本土智慧 行業(yè)研究行業(yè)研究Page1證券研究報(bào)告—深度報(bào)告20209年中報(bào)總結(jié)及全年業(yè)績(jī)前瞻專題研究超配（維評(píng)）一年該行業(yè)與滬深300走勢(shì)比較 行業(yè)專題

2019年月日0.80.6

房地產(chǎn) 滬深300S/18N/18J/19M/19M/19J/19

增長(zhǎng)是主基調(diào)中報(bào)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)較好根據(jù)合理工期及成交結(jié)構(gòu)推算，房地產(chǎn)板塊2019年上半年的營(yíng)收和凈利潤(rùn)主要結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)于2017年上半年的銷售，部分結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)于2016年下半年的銷售，這期間行業(yè)量?jī)r(jià)齊升，所銷售的項(xiàng)目毛利率較高，因此房地產(chǎn)板塊2019年中報(bào)業(yè)績(jī)整體較相關(guān)研究報(bào)告：《房產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)研究報(bào)告：《房產(chǎn)業(yè)題勢(shì)產(chǎn)的息率究——21--《房產(chǎn)09年8月資略焦低估值雙增長(zhǎng)個(gè)》—--《房產(chǎn)業(yè)題究09年中房地融資形觀》—20--《方論題究：A股產(chǎn)塊擇時(shí)架研究》01-《房產(chǎn)219年7月投策暨報(bào)前：優(yōu)選低雙長(zhǎng)品種》—1-23%，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)15%，60%的房企歸母凈利潤(rùn)實(shí)現(xiàn)了正增長(zhǎng)。市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的2019年中報(bào)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)盈利能力整體略有提升：①在板塊131家上市公司中，50%的房企2019年上半年ROE較2018年同期有所提升，53%的房企ROIC同比提升；②2019年上半年，板塊毛利率較去年同期增長(zhǎng)1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，凈利率較去年同期基本持平；2019105%2018年年末上升5.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；剔除預(yù)收賬款后的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率60%，較2018年末上升5.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，行業(yè)負(fù)債水平上升；貨幣資金/（短期借證券分析師：區(qū)瑞明電話：EAI：m@證券分析師：區(qū)瑞明電話：EAI：m@證券投資咨詢執(zhí)業(yè)資格證書編碼：S098051012001同期提升2.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；在板塊131家上市公司中，約64%的房企“少數(shù)股東損益占凈利潤(rùn)比值”小于“少數(shù)股東權(quán)益占比”；二季度存貨去化速度加快：2019年板塊二季度的回款存貨比為14%，較2019年一季度末10%高出3.5股房地產(chǎn)板塊二季度的存貨去化速度比一季度快。全年業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)有望板塊全年?duì)I收及利潤(rùn)主要結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)于2017年銷售，這一期間行業(yè)量?jī)r(jià)齊升，所銷售的項(xiàng)目毛利率較高，因此板塊特別是以龍頭房企為代表的優(yōu)勢(shì)地產(chǎn)股，全年業(yè)績(jī)55只地產(chǎn)股業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)測(cè)，整體法算出2019年上半年末預(yù)收款可鎖定2019年下半年wind一致預(yù)期營(yíng)業(yè)收入的187%，在滿足2019年wind一致預(yù)期營(yíng)收后，剩余的預(yù)收賬款仍能鎖定2020年wind一致預(yù)期營(yíng)收的45%。行業(yè)銷售降溫，第二梯隊(duì)龍頭房企銷售表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異2019年1-8月，TOP3、TOP5、TOP10、TOP20、TO30房企銷售額增速分別為-2.6%、2.3%、6.7%、9.9%、6.8%。在行業(yè)銷售降溫明顯的情況下，一些第口、金地集團(tuán)、陽(yáng)光城分別取得41%、34%、33%、32%的增長(zhǎng)。地產(chǎn)股短期有反彈，長(zhǎng)期具配置價(jià)值板塊動(dòng)態(tài)PE處在近五年第二低位，已與2018年底部時(shí)較接近，表明市場(chǎng)對(duì)板獨(dú)立性聲明： 作者保證報(bào)告所采用的數(shù)據(jù)均來(lái)自合規(guī)渠聲明盤的企穩(wěn)回升，“全面降準(zhǔn)”等貨幣政策的利好不斷出臺(tái)，優(yōu)勢(shì)地產(chǎn)股或?qū)⒎磸棧瑒?shì)地產(chǎn)股已具備長(zhǎng)期配置價(jià)值。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和研究框架的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分全球視野請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分全球視野本土智慧PagePage2內(nèi)容目錄中報(bào)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)較好 4市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的2019年中報(bào)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo) 6盈利能力整體略有提升 6負(fù)債水平上升，短期償債能力穩(wěn)定 少數(shù)股東權(quán)益占比提升 14二季度存貨去化速度加快 16全年業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)有望 19行業(yè)銷售降溫，第二梯隊(duì)龍頭房企銷售表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異 20地產(chǎn)股短期有反彈，長(zhǎng)期具配置價(jià)值 22風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 22國(guó)信證券投資評(píng)級(jí) 24分析師承諾 24風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示 24證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)的說(shuō)明 24PagePage3圖表目錄圖1：板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入、歸母凈利潤(rùn)變化情況 4圖2：板塊毛利率變化情況 9圖3：板塊凈利率變化情況 9圖4：行業(yè)負(fù)債水平上升 12圖5：短期償債能力穩(wěn)定 12圖6：商品房銷售額同比增速 21圖7：商品房銷售面積同比增速 21圖8：2019年1-8月龍頭房企銷售增速一覽 21圖9：當(dāng)前板塊動(dòng)態(tài)PE處在近五年第二低位 22表1：2019H1申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入、歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增速一覽 4表2：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊ROE、ROIC同比變化一覽 7表3：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊毛利率、凈利率同比變化一覽 9表4：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊2019H1負(fù)債水平及短期償債能力一覽 12表5：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊“少數(shù)股東權(quán)益比”較“少數(shù)股東損益比”情況 14表6：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊2019年上半年存貨去化情況 17表7：地產(chǎn)A股業(yè)績(jī)鎖定性一覽 19表8：2019年1-8月銷售TOP30優(yōu)勢(shì)房企一覽 21PagePage4中報(bào)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)較好根據(jù)合理工期及成交結(jié)構(gòu)推算，房地產(chǎn)板塊2019年上半年的營(yíng)收和凈利潤(rùn)主要結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)于2017年上半年的銷售，部分結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)于2016年下半年的銷售，這期間行業(yè)量?jī)r(jià)齊升，所銷售的項(xiàng)目毛利率較高，因此房地產(chǎn)板塊2019年中報(bào)業(yè)績(jī)整體較好，增長(zhǎng)是主基調(diào)。根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)板塊131家上市公司的財(cái)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)，2019年上半年板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入9497億元，同比增長(zhǎng)23%；歸母凈利潤(rùn)億元，同比增長(zhǎng)15%。60%的房企歸母凈利潤(rùn)實(shí)現(xiàn)了正增長(zhǎng)，其中：① 增速大于300%的有6家，包括南山控股、榮豐控股、浙江廣廈、三湘印象、棲霞建設(shè)、鳳凰股份等；② 增速位于100%至300%之間的有17家，包括金科股份、藍(lán)光發(fā)展等；③ 增速位于20%至100%之間的有37家，包括保利地產(chǎn)、金地集團(tuán)、中南建設(shè)、陽(yáng)光城、華僑城A、萬(wàn)科A、華夏幸福等。圖1：板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入、歸母凈利潤(rùn)變化情況歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元） 營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增速 營(yíng)業(yè)收入同比增速100000

2016H 2017H 2018H 2019H

45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理表1：2019H1申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入、歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增速一覽序號(hào) 證券代碼 證券簡(jiǎn)稱 2019H1歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增速（%）

2019H1營(yíng)業(yè)收入同比增速（%）歸母凈利潤(rùn)同1002314.SZ南山控股12962000668.SZ榮豐控股12642213600052.SH浙江廣廈1022比增速大于4000863.SZ三湘印象935300%5600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)5226600716.SH鳳凰股份345705.SZ金科股份705.SZ金科股份9807.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn)A7901.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)906.SH香江控股904.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)2706.SH北京城建804.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)105.SH大龍地產(chǎn)901.SH黑牡丹509.SH京能置業(yè)701.SZ京漢股份906.SH迪馬股份5之間PagePage5600807.SHST天業(yè)110600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展104601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)101000616.SZ海航投資101600675.SH中華企業(yè)10108.SH海泰發(fā)展08.SH海泰發(fā)展800.SZ綠景控股00.SZ中潤(rùn)資源05.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)09.SH哈高科706.SH冠城大通02.SH天房發(fā)展06.SH南京高科03.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)07.SH首開股份04.SH保利地產(chǎn)08.SH金地集團(tuán)04.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展00.SH綠地控股01.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球02.SH魯商發(fā)展03.SZ大悅城306.SZ中南建設(shè)07.SZ陽(yáng)光城06.SZ華僑城A07.SH雅戈?duì)?8.SH格力地產(chǎn)420.SZ南國(guó)置業(yè)330.SH南都物業(yè)24.SZ榮盛發(fā)展04.SZ泛?？毓?00.SZ萬(wàn)科A09.SH中房股份04.SH外高橋02.SH寧波富達(dá)01.SZ深物業(yè)A807.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)04.SH華夏幸福00.SZ金融街21.SZ世榮兆業(yè)00.SH中國(guó)國(guó)貿(mào)03.SZ華聯(lián)控股之間00.SH新湖中寶00.SH新湖中寶09.SZ天健集團(tuán)06.SZ我愛我家706.SH陸家嘴03.SH浦東金橋09.SZ*ST津?yàn)I02.SH世茂股份601.SZ渝開發(fā)809.SZ中國(guó)武夷704.SH上海臨港7105.SZ皇庭國(guó)際6624.SZ濱江集團(tuán)607.SH西藏城投4609.SH大名城4702.SH華發(fā)股份327.SZ國(guó)創(chuàng)高新2715.SH新城控股2802.SZ深深房A1504.SZ中天金融103.SZ廣宇發(fā)展5間歸母凈歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比負(fù)增長(zhǎng)PagePage681000679.SZ大連友誼-982600732.SHST新梅-1283000620.SZ新華聯(lián)-1984000909.SZ數(shù)源科技-2185600895.SH張江高科-2386600665.SH天地源-2487600622.SH光大嘉寶-26588000926.SZ福星股份-2989600215.SH長(zhǎng)春經(jīng)開-3090600683.SH京投發(fā)展-3091001979.SZ招商蛇口-3192600246.SH萬(wàn)通地產(chǎn)-3293600736.SH蘇州高新-3217694000043.SZ中航善達(dá)-3395002208.SZ合肥城建-3496600638.SH新黃浦-3497002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)-3598600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)-4099600641.SH萬(wàn)業(yè)企業(yè)-41100000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)-42101600692.SH亞通股份-42102600649.SH城投控股-47103600225.SH天津松江-47104600658.SH電子城-51105000006.SZ深振業(yè)A-51106000534.SZ萬(wàn)澤股份-52107000918.SZ嘉凱城-57108000042.SZ中洲控股-72109600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)-743110600684.SH珠江實(shí)業(yè)-78111002285.SZ世聯(lián)行-79112600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療-80113600393.SH粵泰股份-82114000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)-83115000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)-86116600604.SH市北高新-89117000667.SZ美好置業(yè)-94112118000965.SZ天保基建-110119000981.SZST銀億-132120000608.SZ陽(yáng)光股份-144121600077.SH宋都股份-159122002147.SZST新光-1802123600503.SH華麗家族-212124000014.SZ沙河股份-224125000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展-300126000558.SZ萊茵體育-320127600239.SH云南城投-325128600240.SH*ST華業(yè)-379129000609.SZ中迪投資-903130000809.SZ鐵嶺新城-908131600463.SH空港股份-1092資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）市場(chǎng)關(guān)注的2019年中報(bào)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)盈利能力整體略有提升在房地產(chǎn)板塊1312019年上半年ROE較2018年同期有所提升，其中金科股份、藍(lán)光發(fā)展、保利地產(chǎn)、金地集團(tuán)分別增長(zhǎng)了7.3、3.8、2.0、1.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；53%的房企2019年上半年ROIC較2018年同PagePage7期有所提升，其中金科股份、金地集團(tuán)、萬(wàn)科A分別增長(zhǎng)了1.6、1.0、0.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。表2：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊ROE、ROIC同比變化一覽序號(hào)證券代碼證券簡(jiǎn)稱2019HROE（%）2018HROE（%）2019HROE較2018H提升（百分點(diǎn)）2019HROIC（%）2018HROIC（%）2019HROIC較2018H提升（百分點(diǎn)）1600052.SH浙江廣廈38.934.624.821.82002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)19.418.410.711.33600340.SH華夏幸福18.717.94000031.SZ大悅城15.65000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展13.716.1-2.46600663.SH陸家嘴12.612.8-0.27600606.SH綠地控股12.48600675.SH中華企業(yè)11.812.2-0.49000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)11.610600064.SH南京高科11.511600724.SH寧波富達(dá)11.012.1-1.112600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)10.913000656.SZ金科股份10.814600848.SH上海臨港10.115000029.SZ深深房A11.0-1.210.010.616000036.SZ華聯(lián)控股17600173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)18601155.SH新城控股12.0-3.419002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展20603506.SH南都物業(yè)-1.121600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)-5.714.3-5.913.422600325.SH華發(fā)股份10.9-2.423600641.SH萬(wàn)業(yè)企業(yè)14.7-6.214.124000046.SZ泛海控股25600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)26601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)27600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展28000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)29600383.SH金地集團(tuán)30000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球31000002.SZ萬(wàn)科A32000668.SZ榮豐控股33000961.SZ中南建設(shè)34600177.SH雅戈?duì)?5000540.SZ中天金融25.9-18.936600007.SH中國(guó)國(guó)貿(mào)37000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)12.4-5.438600376.SH首開股份39600648.SH外高橋40000863.SZ三湘印象41600823.SH世茂股份42001979.SZ招商蛇口10.6-4.243000671.SZ陽(yáng)光城44002208.SZ合肥城建-3.445002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)-3.410.546600322.SH天房發(fā)展47600185.SH格力地產(chǎn)48600208.SH新湖中寶49600266.SH北京城建50600665.SH天地源-2.251600639.SH浦東金橋52600565.SH迪馬股份53600807.SHST天業(yè)-55.660.454000069.SZ華僑城A55600162.SH香江控股PagePage856600223.SH魯商發(fā)展57000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)4.114.0--2.458600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展59000560.SZ我愛我家4.03.60.060002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)4.04.0-0.02.74.6-1.961600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)3.97.8-4.01.42.8-1.462600622.SH光大嘉寶3.85.8-2.01.94.9-3.063000926.SZ福星股份3.75.6-1.92.02.1-0.064600510.SH黑牡丹65600683.SH京投發(fā)展3.55.5-2.01.21.4-0.266000006.SZ深振業(yè)A3.37.4--2.667000402.SZ金融街68000011.SZ深物業(yè)A69600895.SH張江高科3.14.2-1.02.22.9-0.770600246.SH萬(wàn)通地產(chǎn)3.04.5-1.53.04.3-1.371600067.SH冠城大通2.01.60.472000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn)A2.8--1.23.073000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)2.83.2--0.374000534.SZ萬(wàn)澤股份1.5-0.41.975000042.SZ中洲控股2.810.7-8.01.03.5-2.576002377.SZ國(guó)創(chuàng)高新2.72.8--0.277600658.SH電子城2.65.4-2.72.03.7-1.878600736.SH蘇州高新2.54.2--1.179600215.SH長(zhǎng)春經(jīng)開2.43.5--1.480600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)81600657.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)2.32.5-0.382600094.SH大名城83600649.SH城投控股2.03.7--1.684002314.SZ南山控股1.9-1.10.485600692.SH亞通股份1.83.3--1.186000043.SZ中航善達(dá)1.83.0--0.387600393.SH粵泰股份1.89.5--3.388000056.SZ皇庭國(guó)際1.71.9-0.189600684.SH珠江實(shí)業(yè)1.67.9--1.390600638.SH新黃浦1.62.6-1.01.62.7-1.191600773.SH西藏城投0.71.0-0.392000797.SZ中國(guó)武夷0.80.9-0.193000909.SZ數(shù)源科技1.51.9--0.994000620.SZ新華聯(lián)1.42.0-0.395600791.SH京能置業(yè)1.00.50.596002285.SZ世聯(lián)行1.25.8--3.197600082.SH海泰發(fā)展98600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)1.0--0.81.799600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)0.72.6--0.9100600716.SH鳳凰股份0.6-0.60.1101000514.SZ渝開發(fā)0.81.0-0.2102002305.SZ南國(guó)置業(yè)103600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療0.31.0--0.5104000667.SZ美好置業(yè)0.23.2-3.00.11.6-1.6105000615.SZ京漢股份106600604.SH市北高新0.10.8--0.5107000616.SZ海航投資0.0--0.40.4108000506.SZ中潤(rùn)資源-0.3--0.72.9109600503.SH華麗家族-0.30.3-0.5110600095.SH哈高科-0.4--1.01.0111000014.SZ沙河股份-0.40.4-0.9-0.40.5-0.9112000502.SZ綠景控股-0.4-20.820.3-0.8-19.118.2113000965.SZ天?；?0.54.6-5.00.13.5-3.3114000608.SZ陽(yáng)光股份-0.92.0-2.8-2.02.2-4.2115000809.SZ鐵嶺新城-1.40.2-1.6-0.20.4-0.6116600732.SHST新梅-1.4-1.3-0.1-1.7-1.5-0.3117000981.SZST銀億-1.54.1--2.8PagePage9118002147.SZST新光-1.61.9--0.9119600077.SH宋都股份-1.73.1-4.7-1.31.3-2.6120000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展-1.80.9-2.7-0.70.2-0.9121000897.SZ*ST津?yàn)I-2.0-2.0-0.0-0.8-0.6-0.3122600463.SH空港股份-2.0-0.2-1.9-1.20.1-1.3123000558.SZ萊茵體育-3.51.5-5.0-1.41.6-3.0124000609.SZ中迪投資-4.0-0.4-3.6-3.4-0.4-3.0125000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)-4.9-3.0-1.9-2.9-0.7-2.2126600890.SH中房股份-6.0-7.41.4-6.3-7.61.3127000679.SZ大連友誼-9.1-5.7-0.3128000918.SZ嘉凱城-11.6-4.9-6.7-0.2-0.50.2129600239.SH云南城投-15.2-3.6-11.60.01.4-1.4130600225.SH天津松江-25.1-12.2-12.9-0.41.1-1.5131600240.SH*ST華業(yè)13.4-13.4-40.77.6-48.3資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）板塊毛利率保持回升，2019年上半年，板塊毛利率為32.6%，較去年同期增長(zhǎng)1.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；板塊凈利率為13.3%，較去年同期基本持平。圖2：板塊毛利率變化情況 圖3：板塊凈利率變化情況銷售毛利率（%）

銷售凈利率（%料來(lái)源:Wind，國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理 資料來(lái)源:Wind，國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理在房地產(chǎn)板塊1312019年上半年毛利率較2018年同期有所提升，53%的房企2019年上半年凈利率較2018年同期有所提升。2019年上半年，54%的房企毛利率水平高于行業(yè)平均水平，其中華僑城、華夏A的毛利率分別達(dá)39.8%、39.7%、37.9%、36.2%；41%的房企凈利率水平高于行業(yè)平均水平，A的凈利率分別達(dá)32.4%、23.0%、22.1%、18.2%、17.1%、16.5%、13.8%。表3：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊毛利率、凈利率同比變化一覽序號(hào)證券代碼證券簡(jiǎn)稱2019H銷售毛利率（%）2018H銷售毛利率（%）2019H毛利率較2018H提升（百分點(diǎn)）2019H銷售凈利率（%）2018H銷售凈利率（%）2019H凈利率較2018H提升（百分點(diǎn)）1000608.SZ陽(yáng)光股份94.382.711.644.2-52.32000534.SZ萬(wàn)澤股份87.758.928.7130.7-122.73000036.SZ華聯(lián)控股75.34002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)72.365.637.743.55000056.SZ皇庭國(guó)際70.763.924.026.96000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球68.456.811.635.926.17600848.SH上海臨港68.458.010.431.023.28600052.SH浙江廣廈67.245.022.12022.5136.71885.79000069.SZ華僑城A65.456.716.515.610000029.SZ深深房A65.159.026.625.011600663.SH陸家嘴58.649.332.136.512600173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)58.133.524.628.716.212.5PagePage13000668.SZ榮豐控股58.049.18.923.65.618.014600895.SH張江高科56.846.99.846.380.6-34.415600675.SH中華企業(yè)56.032.923.123.614.09.616002208.SZ合肥城建55.541.613.921.314.96.417600177.SH雅戈?duì)?5.358.7-3.444.341.52.818600007.SH中國(guó)國(guó)貿(mào)54.653.11.528.326.02.319000042.SZ中洲控股53.711.9-6.820600162.SH香江控股53.61.98.621600639.SH浦東金橋50.367.9-17.631.045.5-14.422600683.SH京投發(fā)展50.128.821.423.912.811.223600604.SH市北高新49.621.2-15.124000031.SZ大悅城49.546.13.516.417.5-1.225000011.SZ深物業(yè)A49.416.533.010.010.1-0.126600246.SH萬(wàn)通地產(chǎn)49.029.519.551.917.134.827600340.SH華夏幸福48.719.82.328000965.SZ天?；?8.356.5-8.2-22.422.3-44.729000402.SZ金融街47.545.52.014.615.4-0.730600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)46.834.212.633.19.523.631600641.SH萬(wàn)業(yè)企業(yè)46.257.7-11.532.437.6-5.232002314.SZ南山控股8.26.02.233600376.SH首開股份44.221.622.634600503.SH華麗家族-16.40.6-17.035600239.SH云南城投44.043.50.5-47.8-4.1-43.736600240.SH*ST華業(yè)43.256.2-13.0-2759.635.5-2795.137601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)42.939.33.616.915.61.338600773.SH西藏城投8.08.3-0.239600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)42.015.027.010.8-16.727.540600064.SH南京高科41.549.7-8.2151.539.8111.841000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)26.213.712.542000006.SZ深振業(yè)A39.839.00.822.342.6-20.343600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)39.835.44.444600383.SH金地集團(tuán)39.737.81.923.020.22.845000046.SZ泛?？毓?9.653.5-13.9158.8118.340.546000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)39.349.3-9.946.544.91.747000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)39.037.61.412.013.8-1.848600208.SH新湖中寶38.728.89.923.526.1-2.749000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展38.631.76.918.316.81.450600094.SH大名城51000667.SZ美好置業(yè)38.116.721.50.842.2-41.452600510.SH黑牡丹15.63.711.853001979.SZ招商蛇口37.942.7-4.932.438.0-5.654600077.SH宋都股份37.645.1-7.5-15.99.4-25.355600638.SH新黃浦37.529.08.518.017.90.156601155.SH新城控股37.538.4-0.957600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療36.751.1-14.49.513.7-4.258600724.SH寧波富達(dá)36.628.97.724.112.311.859000002.SZ萬(wàn)科A13.812.81.160600657.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)36.242.1-0.861000863.SZ三湘印象24.21.822.462600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)36.232.04.15.734.6-29.063002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)35.527.77.817.313.04.364600622.SH光大嘉寶35.551.7-16.29.320.8-11.565000514.SZ渝開發(fā)35.423.911.566000540.SZ中天金融35.335.9-0.616.1112.4-96.367600684.SH珠江實(shí)業(yè)8.59.8-1.368600325.SH華發(fā)股份35.025.39.711.614.1-2.569600658.SH電子城33.971.4-37.532.429.62.870002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)33.945.9-12.115.422.3-6.971600736.SH蘇州高新33.731.82.08.525.8-17.372000615.SZ京漢股份33.70.84.473600648.SH外高橋33.613.80.874600565.SH迪馬股份33.337.4-6.1PagePage75600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)32.73.95.876600067.SH冠城大通31.526.55.077600823.SH世茂股份30.640.6-10.018.420.5-2.178002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展30.432.3-1.911.814.2-2.479000656.SZ金科股份30.322.57.880000560.SZ我愛我家30.032.0-2.07.06.90.181000909.SZ數(shù)源科技29.513.81.782000926.SZ福星股份29.533.9--2.083600393.SH粵泰股份29.438.1--26.784000897.SZ*ST津?yàn)I29.433.5-4.1-26.0-33.87.885600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展29.432.3-3.086000609.SZ中迪投資29.427.51.8-312.8-42.3-270.587000620.SZ新華聯(lián)28.630.4--1.288600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)28.038.4-10.39.914.6-4.689600185.SH格力地產(chǎn)27.845.6-17.715.325.5-10.290000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)27.833.1-5.410.810.70.191000671.SZ陽(yáng)光城27.527.8-0.092000014.SZ沙河股份27.426.70.7-4.82.8-7.693002147.SZST新光27.130.7-3.7-11.614.5-26.194600215.SH長(zhǎng)春經(jīng)開26.921.75.256.271.1-14.995600082.SH海泰發(fā)展25.815.32.096600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展25.431.2-5.812.112.4-0.397600225.SH天津松江24.132.8-8.7-69.3-23.9-45.498600665.SH天地源23.817.86.09.47.02.399000918.SZ嘉凱城-49.9-44.7-5.2100000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展22.324.9-2.6-9.72.6-12.4101603506.SH南都物業(yè)22.124.1-2.0102000502.SZ綠景控股21.916.35.6-13.2-289.7276.6103600791.SH京能置業(yè)21.83.51.8104000616.SZ海航投資21.5-98.498.5105000043.SZ中航善達(dá)20.522.7--1.8106000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)20.05.80.1107600223.SH魯商發(fā)展19.918.02.03.02.01.1108000981.SZST銀億19.930.6-10.7-4.216.5-20.7109000961.SZ中南建設(shè)19.922.2--0.4110600322.SH天房發(fā)展19.727.1-1.0111600266.SH北京城建19.534.9-15.521.310.610.7112600807.SHST天業(yè)19.35.713.79.9-95.8105.7113000558.SZ萊茵體育19.028.1-9.1-86.15.3-91.4114600692.SH亞通股份18.322.7--3.9115000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn)A16.519.1-2.620.0-25.845.9116002377.SZ國(guó)創(chuàng)高新16.36.8-0.7117600716.SH鳳凰股份16.3-1.75.4118000797.SZ中國(guó)武夷15.222.8--2.8119600606.SH綠地控股120000679.SZ大連友誼14.617.6-3.0-22.0-15.3-6.7121600095.SH哈高科14.031.0-17.0-2.9-21.718.7122002285.SZ世聯(lián)行13.522.4-8.92.08.3-6.3123600649.SH城投控股12.827.4-14.6124600463.SH空港股份-9.2-1.2-8.0125002305.SZ南國(guó)置業(yè)8.721.2--7.3126600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)8.263.4-55.1158.8-98.0256.8127600732.SHST新梅0.8-3.34.1-104.3-28.7-75.7128000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)0.516.6-16.1-36.7-15.3-21.4129000506.SZ中潤(rùn)資源-6.111.3-17.4-9.1-17.88.7130000809.SZ鐵嶺新城-15.7-24.18.4-261.347.3-308.6131600890.SH中房股份-828.8-603.0-225.8-5675.8-6072.7396.9資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）負(fù)債水平上升，短期償債能力穩(wěn)定截至2019年上半年末，板塊凈負(fù)債率2018年年末上PagePage升5.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；剔除預(yù)收賬款后的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率2018年年末上升5.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，行業(yè)負(fù)債水平上升；貨幣資金/（短期借款+一年內(nèi)到期的非流動(dòng)負(fù)債）為1.2，較過(guò)去兩年持平，板塊短期償債能力穩(wěn)定。圖4：行業(yè)負(fù)債水平上升 圖5：短期償債能力穩(wěn)定板塊凈負(fù)債率 板塊剔除預(yù)收賬款后的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率

板塊短期償債能力保障倍數(shù)110%100%90%80%70%60%

65%61%57%53%49%001/1/102/6/102/1/103/6/103/1/104/6/104/1/105/6/105/1/106/6/106/1/107/6/107/1/108/6/108/1/109/6/1

0.90.8001/1/102/5/102/1/103/3/103/8/104/1/104/6/104/1/105/4/105/9/106/2/106/7/106/1/107/5/107/1/108/3/108/8/109/1/109/6/1資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理 資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理截至2019年上半年末，板塊131家公司中，剔除預(yù)收款的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率低于行業(yè)整體水平的占比70%，短期償債能力高于1的占比58%。表4：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊2019H1負(fù)債水平及短期償債能力一覽序號(hào)證券代碼證券簡(jiǎn)稱凈負(fù)債率剔除預(yù)收賬款后的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率短期償債能力保障倍數(shù)1600215.SH長(zhǎng)春經(jīng)開-43%-2600890.SH中房股份-35%-3600732.SHST新梅-33%-4600641.SH萬(wàn)業(yè)企業(yè)-37%5600052.SH浙江廣廈-55%-6600095.SH哈高科0%7000502.SZ綠景控股-36%8600503.SH華麗家族7%9002377.SZ國(guó)創(chuàng)高新-9%10000014.SZ沙河股份-14%11600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療-14%12600173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)-94%-13000897.SZ*ST津?yàn)I52%14002208.SZ合肥城建-31%15000029.SZ深深房A-37%16000616.SZ海航投資-32%17600716.SH鳳凰股份-3%18000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)-96%19000965.SZ天保基建11%20000609.SZ中迪投資1%21000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球6%22600246.SH萬(wàn)通地產(chǎn)5%23600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)-56%-24600007.SH中國(guó)國(guó)貿(mào)28%25000514.SZ渝開發(fā)-6%26000006.SZ深振業(yè)A-12%27000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn)A7%28000863.SZ三湘印象56%29000615.SZ京漢股份38%30000667.SZ美好置業(yè)70%31600649.SH城投控股34%32600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)-17%-33600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)83%34600565.SH迪馬股份66%PagePage35002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)64%41%36000036.SZ華聯(lián)控股-54%41%-37000608.SZ陽(yáng)光股份37%41%38603506.SH南都物業(yè)-43%42%-39600463.SH空港股份43%42%40000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展123%42%41600077.SH宋都股份43%42%42000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)13%43%43000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)52%43%44002147.SZST新光40%43%45600082.SH海泰發(fā)展27%43%46000961.SZ中南建設(shè)186%43%47600510.SH黑牡丹32%44%48000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展142%44%49002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)45%44%50600724.SH寧波富達(dá)32%44%51600064.SH南京高科-9%44%52000809.SZ鐵嶺新城71%45%53000981.SZST銀億64%45%54601155.SH新城控股69%46%55600638.SH新黃浦35%46%-56600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展138%46%57000558.SZ萊茵體育54%46%58600177.SH雅戈?duì)?3%47%59000560.SZ我愛我家2%47%60600622.SH光大嘉寶46%48%61002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展96%48%62600658.SH電子城48%48%63002314.SZ南山控股32%49%64002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)-31%49%65000002.SZ萬(wàn)科A37%49%66000656.SZ金科股份157%49%67600692.SH亞通股份67%50%68600094.SH大名城90%50%69000506.SZ中潤(rùn)資源32%50%70600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展95%50%71600067.SH冠城大通48%51%72600383.SH金地集團(tuán)64%51%73600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)17%51%74000011.SZ深物業(yè)A-12%51%-75601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)120%51%76000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)195%51%77600657.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)96%52%78600606.SH綠地控股185%52%79600791.SH京能置業(yè)65%53%80600639.SH浦東金橋51%53%81000534.SZ萬(wàn)澤股份38%53%82600675.SH中華企業(yè)10%53%83000042.SZ中洲控股98%54%84001979.SZ招商蛇口69%55%85000056.SZ皇庭國(guó)際80%55%86600736.SH蘇州高新100%55%87000668.SZ榮豐控股60%55%88600895.SH張江高科72%55%89000797.SZ中國(guó)武夷89%55%90002285.SZ世聯(lián)行1%56%91600162.SH香江控股40%56%92000671.SZ陽(yáng)光城171%57%93600340.SH華夏幸福282%57%94600322.SH天房發(fā)展227%58%95600604.SH市北高新89%58%96000069.SZ華僑城A106%58%PagePage97600325.SH華發(fā)股份245%58%98600823.SH世茂股份17%58%99600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)122%58%100000043.SZ中航善達(dá)72%59%101000031.SZ大悅城118%60%102000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)124%60%103600376.SH首開股份213%61%104000926.SZ福星股份114%61%105002305.SZ南國(guó)置業(yè)175%62%106600648.SH外高橋83%62%107000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)259%62%108600393.SH粵泰股份115%62%109000909.SZ數(shù)源科技61%62%110600665.SH天地源275%64%111600848.SH上海臨港77%64%112600223.SH魯商發(fā)展258%64%113600208.SH新湖中寶183%64%114000402.SZ金融街178%65%115600266.SH北京城建152%65%116600773.SH西藏城投155%66%117600663.SH陸家嘴118%66%118600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)258%67%119000620.SZ新華聯(lián)220%69%120600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)302%71%121600185.SH格力地產(chǎn)189%71%122600807.SHST天業(yè)42%71%123600684.SH珠江實(shí)業(yè)194%75%124000540.SZ中天金融153%77%125000046.SZ泛?？毓?97%77%126000679.SZ大連友誼131%80%127000918.SZ嘉凱城214%82%128600683.SH京投發(fā)展696%84%129600239.SH云南城投573%87%130600225.SH天津松江518%87%131600240.SH*ST華業(yè)-288%123%資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）少數(shù)股東權(quán)益占比提升板塊2019年上半年末“少數(shù)股東權(quán)益比”為2.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；“少數(shù)股東損益比”為24%，較去年同期提升7.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；在板塊131家上市公司中，約64%的房企“少數(shù)股東損益占凈利潤(rùn)比值”小于“少數(shù)股東權(quán)益占比”。表5：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊“少數(shù)股東權(quán)益比”較“少數(shù)股東損益比”情況證券代碼證券簡(jiǎn)稱2019H少數(shù)股東權(quán)益比2019H少數(shù)股東損益比2019H公司權(quán)益比-損益比2018H少數(shù)股東權(quán)益比2018H少數(shù)股東損益比2018H公司權(quán)益比-損益比2019H公司權(quán)益比-損益比同比提升（百分點(diǎn)）1000002.SZ萬(wàn)科A31%39%-8%34%33%2000006.SZ深振業(yè)A3%-5%3000011.SZ深物業(yè)A-38%42%0%42.44000014.SZ沙河股份7%10%-2%5000029.SZ深深房A-4%-4%-4%-4%6000031.SZ大悅城54%35%18%42%29%13%7000036.SZ華聯(lián)控股13%14%10%8000042.SZ中洲控股-64%69%7%-1%60.69000043.SZ中航善達(dá)-5%9%10000046.SZ泛?？毓?3%25%27%23%11000056.SZ皇庭國(guó)際23%-15%8%18%-10%12000069.SZ華僑城A23%20%22%12%10.513000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)-3%1%-1%14000402.SZ金融街13%24%-12%12%15%-3%PagePage15000502.SZ綠景控股6%9%-3%14%3%12%-14.716000506.SZ中潤(rùn)資源5%77%-72%6%27%-21%-51.217000514.SZ渝開發(fā)14%11%2%13%36%-23%25.218000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)2%-10%12%1%-1%1%10.619000534.SZ萬(wàn)澤股份0%-73%73%1%-69%70%20000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展0%0%0%0%0%0%21000540.SZ中天金融14%-3%17%10%0%10%22000558.SZ萊茵體育-1%5%-5%4%13%-8%23000560.SZ我愛我家2%4%-2%3%10%-7%24000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn)A1%-9%9%1%8%-7%16.325000608.SZ陽(yáng)光股份18%-196%213%19%15%4%209.926000609.SZ中迪投資0%2%-2%0%1%0%-1.627000615.SZ京漢股份38%95%-57%34%63%-29%-28.028000616.SZ海航投資0%-360%360%10%2%8%352.029000620.SZ新華聯(lián)20%1%19%21%0%21%-1.930000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)1%9%-7%0%0%0%-7.731000656.SZ金科股份43%18%25%32%16%16%32000667.SZ美好置業(yè)6%-80%85%8%-25%33%52.533000668.SZ榮豐控股11%11%0%12%11%1%-0.134000671.SZ陽(yáng)光城49%6%43%40%0%40%35000679.SZ大連友誼8%11%-3%9%8%1%-3.936000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)14%6%8%16%-1%17%-9.237000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球4%-1%5%3%-8%12%-7.338000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)41%0%41%41%28%13%27.739000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)48%56%-8%44%31%13%-20.640000797.SZ中國(guó)武夷4%-4%8%2%-2%4%41000809.SZ鐵嶺新城0%0%0%0%0%0%42000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展27%30%-4%7%-21%28%-31.743000863.SZ三湘印象-2%-8%6%-1%-130%129%-122.544000897.SZ*ST津?yàn)I12%16%-3%13%-2%14%-17.645000909.SZ數(shù)源科技16%29%-13%17%44%-27%14.246000918.SZ嘉凱城2%5%-4%4%18%-14%10.247000926.SZ福星股份10%13%-3%10%7%3%-6.548000961.SZ中南建設(shè)20%9%11%17%9%8%49000965.SZ天?；?%1%0%0%0%0%-0.350000981.SZST銀億3%-35%38%4%18%-14%51.851001979.SZ招商蛇口35%9%26%30%11%19%52002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)0%0%0%0%1%-1%53002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)12%40%-28%17%47%-30%54002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展8%-2%10%9%19%-10%20.055002147.SZST新光3%1%2%3%0%3%-1.356002208.SZ合肥城建10%43%-33%6%2%4%-37.257002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)23%32%-9%17%53%-37%27.558002285.SZ世聯(lián)行2%-3%5%1%2%-1%59002305.SZ南國(guó)置業(yè)13%78%-65%12%75%-63%-1.960002314.SZ南山控股25%24%1%14%109%-95%96.461002377.SZ國(guó)創(chuàng)高新2%-4%7%3%3%0%62600007.SH中國(guó)國(guó)貿(mào)0%0%0%0%0%0%63600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)35%23%12%35%30%5%64600052.SH浙江廣廈0%0%0%0%0%0%65600064.SH南京高科6%1%6%6%9%-3%66600067.SH冠城大通15%13%1%14%27%-14%15.267600077.SH宋都股份11%6%4%15%-3%18%-13.768600082.SH海泰發(fā)展0%0%0%0%0%0%69600094.SH大名城10%42%-32%8%19%-11%-20.970600095.SH哈高科3%62%-59%3%15%-12%-47.071600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)2%-11%13%3%0%2%10.872600162.SH香江控股5%-16%21%8%-142%150%-128.173600173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)0%0%0%8%20%-12%12.474600177.SH雅戈?duì)?%0%1%1%0%1%-0.275600185.SH格力地產(chǎn)0%0%0%0%0%0%-0.276600208.SH新湖中寶2%-1%3%2%0%2%PagePage77600215.SH長(zhǎng)春經(jīng)開0%0%0%0%0%0%78600223.SH魯商發(fā)展18%16%2%11%0%11%-9.179600225.SH天津松江22%5%16%15%6%9%80600239.SH云南城投41%13%28%40%-16%56%-28.181600240.SH*ST華業(yè)1%0%1%0%0%0%82600246.SH萬(wàn)通地產(chǎn)6%9%-2%8%18%-10%83600266.SH北京城建10%11%-1%10%-2%12%-12.984600322.SH天房發(fā)展14%15%-1%15%4%11%-11.685600325.SH華發(fā)股份50%16%34%47%-1%48%-14.186600340.SH華夏幸福14%1%12%42%0%41%-28.987600376.SH首開股份46%51%-5%40%12%28%-32.488600383.SH金地集團(tuán)31%29%2%29%21%9%-7.089600393.SH粵泰股份8%-46%54%9%-2%11%42.890600463.SH空港股份3%18%-15%4%62%-58%43.391600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展51%16%35%25%1%23%11.392600503.SH華麗家族2%43%-42%3%-738%741%-782.393600510.SH黑牡丹12%46%-33%6%-25%31%-64.494600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)16%-13%28%26%17%9%18.895600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)1%1%1%1%1%0%96600565.SH迪馬股份40%10%30%5%-12%17%12.597600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療5%48%-43%3%4%-2%-41.598600604.SH市北高新17%55%-39%4%15%-11%-27.299600606.SH綠地控股36%21%15%35%27%8%100600622.SH光大嘉寶28%-9%36%25%31%-6%42.2101600638.SH新黃浦4%18%-14%3%19%-15%102600639.SH浦東金橋2%0%3%3%0%3%103600641.SH萬(wàn)業(yè)企業(yè)0%0%0%0%0%0%104600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)9%0%9%10%-15%24%-15.6105600648.SH外高橋4%4%0%4%4%-1%106600649.SH城投控股6%7%-2%6%13%-7%107600657.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)4%11%-7%1%0%1%-8.1108600658.SH電子城3%-3%6%5%0%5%109600663.SH陸家嘴30%22%8%31%24%7%110600665.SH天地源5%-3%8%1%-1%2%111600675.SH中華企業(yè)12%22%-11%17%22%-5%-5.2112600683.SH京投發(fā)展33%68%-35%41%52%-11%-24.4113600684.SH珠江實(shí)業(yè)24%53%-29%26%18%8%-36.4114600692.SH亞通股份10%31%-21%11%28%-17%-3.8115600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)7%31%-24%6%11%-5%-18.7116600716.SH鳳凰股份6%5%1%2%0%2%-0.8117600724.SH寧波富達(dá)13%25%-12%29%26%3%-14.3118600732.SHST新梅5%-3%8%4%-1%5%119600736.SH蘇州高新41%51%-10%34%34%0%-10.4120600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)9%-20%28%6%-14%20%121600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展12%21%-9%15%41%-26%16.7122600773.SH西藏城投0%-3%2%0%-1%1%123600791.SH京能置業(yè)49%43%7%39%50%-11%18.3124600807.SHST天業(yè)1%2%-1%1%0%1%-1.8125600823.SH世茂股份46%33%13%47%42%5%126600848.SH上海臨港17%7%10%15%-5%20%-10.3127600890.SH中房股份1%0%1%1%0%1%128600895.SH張江高科2%-1%2%2%-1%3%-0.4129601155.SH新城控股47%11%36%25%2%23%13.6130601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)10%11%-2%7%25%-18%16.3131603506.SH南都物業(yè)2%7%-5%1%2%-1%-3.7資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）二季度存貨去化速度加快當(dāng)期預(yù)售層面的庫(kù)存去化能力。為了更真實(shí)地反映房企去庫(kù)存的能力，我們引PagePage入另一個(gè)指標(biāo)——回款存貨比=銷售商品、提供勞務(wù)獲得的現(xiàn)金/期末存貨；該比率越大，說(shuō)明從當(dāng)期預(yù)售回款層面的去化速度越快。2019年板塊二季度的回款存貨比為14%，較2019年一季度末10%高出3.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，與去年同期相同，表明從預(yù)售回款層面，A股房地產(chǎn)板塊二季度的存貨去化速度比一季度快。表6：申萬(wàn)房地產(chǎn)板塊2019年上半年存貨去化情況序號(hào)證券代碼證券簡(jiǎn)稱2019Q1銷售商品、提供勞務(wù)收到的現(xiàn)金（億元）2019Q1存貨（億元）2019Q1存貨回款比2019Q2銷售商品、提供勞務(wù)收2019H1存貨（億元）2019Q2存貨回款比1000002.SZ萬(wàn)科A778610%1191790515%2600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)507310%531417%3600606.SH綠地控股1253603221%1373574924%4600340.SH華夏幸福264227685001979.SZ招商蛇口2251253414%6600383.SH金地集團(tuán)109612%124518%7600376.SH首開股份173417278000656.SZ金科股份172110%182617%9000031.SZ大悅城59312%65015%10601155.SH新城控股167313%210922%11000069.SZ華僑城A179912%179512002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展1463151911%13600663.SH陸家嘴23210%22614600823.SH世茂股份56154310%15600675.SH中華企業(yè)20015%18712%16600177.SH雅戈?duì)?4322%15129%17000046.SZ泛?？毓?8360018600208.SH新湖中寶73773019600325.SH華發(fā)股份1373141112%20000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)160611%163310%21000537.SZ廣宇發(fā)展60258922000671.SZ陽(yáng)光城155911%160014%23600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展100211%112312%24000961.SZ中南建設(shè)140412%153213%25601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)62964826000402.SZ金融街74274513%27600266.SH北京城建80380828600064.SH南京高科16%429000540.SZ中天金融33531930600052.SH浙江廣廈802627%40985%31002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)59113%60319%32600848.SH上海臨港413133600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)50754134600648.SH外高橋16%21%35000718.SZ蘇寧環(huán)球7112911836000517.SZ榮安地產(chǎn)18811%23219%37002016.SZ世榮兆業(yè)820%30%38600641.SH萬(wàn)業(yè)企業(yè)645%3832%39600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展23224540600510.SH黑牡丹11215%11234%41600657.SH信達(dá)地產(chǎn)64263842000036.SZ華聯(lián)控股719%37%43600007.SH中國(guó)國(guó)貿(mào)802781%902874%44000631.SZ順發(fā)恒業(yè)213%327%45000926.SZ福星股份24712%25712%46600094.SH大名城35535911%47600736.SH蘇州高新20522548600639.SH浦東金橋515%719%PagePage49600565.SH迪馬股份5440813%5648612%50600533.SH棲霞建設(shè)1210811%1510714%51600185.SH格力地產(chǎn)82203%142226%52600649.SH城投控股12340%122265%53000560.SZ我愛我家246417%326563%54600724.SH寧波富達(dá)61417%81617%55000863.SZ三湘印象6896%168918%56000029.SZ深深房A71740%91654%57002133.SZ廣宇集團(tuán)6788%127716%58600683.SH京投發(fā)展83143%163295%59600322.SH天房發(fā)展52582%42612%60600895.SH張江高科3438%2436%61600067.SH冠城大通2313517%2813720%62600246.SH萬(wàn)通地產(chǎn)2426%3428%63000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)171969%3720618%64600173.SH臥龍地產(chǎn)83325%123436%65600622.SH光大嘉寶126519%147619%66000006.SZ深振業(yè)A86612%157421%67000736.SZ中交地產(chǎn)142655%193126%68600162.SH香江控股1712913%1912915%69002314.SZ南山控股1811416%2511222%70002208.SZ合肥城建129812%1510115%71600515.SH海航基礎(chǔ)242898%193226%72600658.SH電子城2653%2703%73600665.SH天地源51633%141778%74600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)193476%293987%75002377.SZ國(guó)創(chuàng)高新102514%123454%76000042.SZ中洲控股112584%212927%77600223.SH魯商發(fā)展253727%323908%78000056.SZ皇庭國(guó)際301684%301912%79600684.SH珠江實(shí)業(yè)3536%85017%80000620.SZ新華聯(lián)232489%2925012%81002305.SZ南國(guó)置業(yè)51673%61724%82600638.SH新黃浦5589%3664%83000797.SZ中國(guó)武夷81057%2111419%84000043.SZ中航善達(dá)91752%131776%85000011.SZ深物業(yè)A52916%113829%86000668.SZ榮豐控股0191%0181%87000615.SZ京漢股份147818%128015%88600393.SH粵泰股份91407%91466%89600807.SHST天業(yè)21219%21221%90600215.SH長(zhǎng)春經(jīng)開0124%0123%91002285.SZ世聯(lián)行17015229%18010725%92603506.SH南都物業(yè)3037491%3038195%93600773.SH西藏城投3824%5856%94000573.SZ粵宏遠(yuǎn)A31320%21512%95600791.SH京能置業(yè)1661%1621%96600716.SH鳳凰股份2307%1334%97600647.SH同達(dá)創(chuàng)業(yè)011%0124%98000909.SZ數(shù)源科技196%3934%99600568.SH中珠醫(yī)療21017%21023%100600159.SH大龍地產(chǎn)1295%2296%101000534.SZ萬(wàn)澤股份11199%30559%102000514.SZ渝開發(fā)1344%2355%103600692.SH亞通股份1118%11114%104600082.SH海泰發(fā)展3289%1275%105600604.SH市北高新1911%1941%106000667.SZ美好置業(yè)111229%1312511%107000616.SZ海航投資1144%1135%108000502.SZ綠景控股0011%0011%109000014.SZ沙河股份1159%1154%110000691.SZ亞太實(shí)業(yè)015%011%PagePage111600732.SHST新梅0026%00-6%112600095.SH哈高科2278%1254%113000608.SZ陽(yáng)光股份179%179%114000506.SZ中潤(rùn)資源1420%1522%115600890.SH中房股份0020%0020%116600503.SH華麗家族42617%43214%117000897.SZ*ST津?yàn)I3546%65511%118000965.SZ天?；?671%1672%119600463.SH空港股份31224%21215%120000809.SZ鐵嶺新城0411%1411%121000558.SZ萊茵體育038%0312%122000838.SZ財(cái)信發(fā)展1111010%1711515%123000609.SZ中迪投資2259%2276%124600077.SH宋都股份1615510%3520017%125000679.SZ大連友誼2289%2288%126002147.SZST新光3525%2495%127000981.SZST銀億198522%198722%128600225.SH天津松江3525%85215%129000918.SZ嘉凱城4915%4905%130600239.SH云南城投154903%165173%131600240.SH*ST華業(yè)0252%0252%資料來(lái)源:Wind、國(guó)信證券經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所整理（以上數(shù)據(jù)僅作列示，不做推薦）全年業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鲩L(zhǎng)有望板塊全年?duì)I收及利潤(rùn)主要結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)于2017年銷售，這一期間行業(yè)量?jī)r(jià)齊升，所銷售的項(xiàng)目毛利率較高，因此板塊特別是以龍頭房企為代表的優(yōu)勢(shì)地產(chǎn)股，全年55只地產(chǎn)股業(yè)績(jī)2019年9月92019年上半年末預(yù)收款可鎖定2019年下半年wind一致預(yù)期營(yíng)業(yè)收入的年下半年wind一致預(yù)期營(yíng)收=2019年wind2019年wind一致預(yù)期營(yíng)收后，剩余的預(yù)收賬款仍能鎖定2020年wind一致預(yù)期營(yíng)收的45%。其中：① 2020年業(yè)績(jī)鎖定性在100%或以上的有2② 2020年業(yè)績(jī)鎖定性在50%至100%之間的有18家，包括金科股份、中南建設(shè)、萬(wàn)科A、保利地產(chǎn)、藍(lán)光發(fā)展、華夏幸福等；③ 2020年業(yè)績(jī)鎖定性在30%至50%之間的有3家，包括金地集團(tuán)、榮盛發(fā)展、陽(yáng)光城等。表7：地產(chǎn)A股業(yè)績(jī)鎖定性一覽序號(hào)證券代碼證券簡(jiǎn)稱2019H1末預(yù)收賬款（億元）2019H營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）2019年一致預(yù)期營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）2020年一致預(yù)期營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）2019年業(yè)績(jī)鎖定性2020年業(yè)績(jī)鎖定性1601155.SH新城控股1069276%103%2600077.SH宋都股份5243%100%3600223.SH魯商發(fā)展298%95%4000615.SZ京漢股份276%88%5000656.SZ金科股份316%88%6600325.SH華發(fā)股份300%82%7000961.SZ中南建設(shè)1039281%80%8000002.SZ萬(wàn)科A139337084533245%74%9002244.SZ濱江集團(tuán)217%73%10000031.SZ大悅城347%69%11000042.SZ中洲控股203%66%12000732.SZ泰禾集團(tuán)227%65%13600376.SH首開股份245%63%14600048.SH保利地產(chǎn)24483048209%62%PagePage15600466.SH藍(lán)光發(fā)展617145419576225%59%16600565.SH迪馬股份30636192258195%58%17601588.SH北辰實(shí)業(yè)27785212263218%57%18600340.SH華夏幸福140338710581352209%54%19600177.SH雅戈?duì)?2446107118201%53%20600064.SH南京高科4883640171%50%21600383.SH金地集團(tuán)847223672830189%48%22002146.SZ榮盛發(fā)展878244742939176%40%23000671.SZ陽(yáng)光城771225689890166%35%24000069.SZ華僑城A630177601722149%29%25600743.SH華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)1021690105138%27%26600606.SH綠地控股3598201442755139159%26%27600736.SH蘇州高新505389110137%12%28600622.SH光大嘉寶38235463125%12%29600266.SH北京城建12863168209121%11%30600748.SH上實(shí)發(fā)展684399118122%10%31001979.SZ招商蛇口111116711381402114%10%32600208.SH新湖中寶16573236296101%1%33002314.SZ南山控股5925859598%-34600641.SH萬(wàn)業(yè)企業(yè)216192074%-35000402.SZ金融街1649527432992%-36600663.SH陸家嘴498214917273%-37600675.SH中華企業(yè)719121326058%-38000090.SZ天健集團(tuán)493911613564%-39600708.SH光明地產(chǎn)927321524565%-40000863.SZ三湘印象2215516059%-41000620.SZ新華聯(lián)803316018063%-42000540.SZ中天金融557320525342%-43600823.SH世茂股份2712824930422%-44603506.SH南都物業(yè)26141729%-45600639.SH浦東金橋514313